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Wednesday, June 1, 2011

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A possible portfolio change has been posted to the website.

161 comments:

  1. Repost: back to Pop or Drop level intraday


    http://screencast.com/t/S3Rdb43cbPL

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  2. hi Gary,

    Just got back from various meetings...I have to say that I didn't sleep well last night and decided this afternoon to sell my long GOLD ( at 1537 unfortunately) and long NSQ ( at 2363).
    Will probably sleep better tonight, even if we close higher...

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  3. Gary,
    I just want to double check. I have the 10 day moving average at 1329.98. Is that right?
    Thanks

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  4. 10min SPX Update: Possible support at 200ma


    http://screencast.com/t/X87fyVXObu

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  5. Thanks Gann.

    Utterly wild ride....

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  6. sophia...

    I did the same thing with gold and felt like an idiot afterwards. Some how it always feels better to know you're not alone even if it doesn't change the facts. BTW: I too will also sleep better and that may be worth the $10 pop

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  7. Not taking a long trade here, but that crash down on SPY filled the gap from Thursday close.

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  8. ah ah Deshy, you got it!
    have kept very tiny calls on CAC40 but my biggest position was NSQ and I was worried... I am sure that Gary's first call ( ie a wild run up ) will happen, but for tonight, I will take it easy.

    BTW, most of Europe is closed today and taking it easy on Friday, so liquidity can be an issue

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  9. do not let short scare you ...

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  10. Transports Daily :

    http://screencast.com/t/nO1ZeLmz

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  11. Just peeking in to say hello after a long holiday.

    I'm still on the sidelines, looking for a signal to short stocks and then bonds a few weeks after that.

    Markets continue to look undecided to me.

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  12. Thanks Eamonn. I won't really be back though until I get my signal. :)

    I just checked with my brokers, and SSO, QLD, TNA, and UWM are available to short. TNA and UWM are the leveraged long Russell 2000 etfs.

    I haven't decided which vehicle I'll use, but futures are an option if the above can't be borrowed in the future, but that could also suggest lower indices.

    We'll see.

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  13. SB,

    Which broker(s) do you use?

    They have them available to short without a fee? I shorted SSO weeks ago through Schwab and it cost me about 11 bucks/day for a 1000 share position. Still well worth it, but looking to avoid those fees.

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  14. What are the chances of S&P bouncing back here for a little move?

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  15. $bkx new low for the year today.
    Are you folks sure you want to mess with this market?

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  16. Looks to me like Bear market began

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  17. I've Eaten Silver,

    I think those fees were interest charged on short balances, b/c shorts are done in margin accounts.

    I trade with several brokers including Schwab like yourself, and have not decided which I'll use, but IB does have the lowest margin rates.

    Schwab has one of the highest.

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  18. While Schwab actually has lower commissions when doing large trades, as they're rate is fixed at $8.95/trade

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  19. Today looks ugly for stocks, but we received confirmation of a new daily cycle with yesterday's breakout. Too many technical drones were chasing that breakout, and they are getting punished today. But this action is just noise until something breaks. A violation of SPX 1311 would produce a failed daily cycle, and an impetus to begin shorting, for example.

    That said, even with a daily cycle low just passed, I consider stocks too dangerous to mess with. Any exogenous shocks will see stocks down heavily. I am still holding a small trading position in gold and will look to exit whenever I receive an indication the current daily cycle has peaked.

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  20. Hey Doc,
    Iasked Gary this yesterday, just curious as to why the two of you are diverging here on PMs and S&P since you both employ cycles. I guess some personal input goes in it as well?

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  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. Cramer: There are some stocks that, in one day, have gotten so out of whack that it seems worthwhile to do some picking, particularly among some down-and-out financials.

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  23. Sold my GLD and GDX this morning when gold hit $1550, as that was my target even though it didn't agree with what Gary advocated. Nice 31% and 39% profit respectively.

    Unfortunately, on this big pullback, I added to SPY, and initiated a position in QQQ, only to immediately find Gary's new post which states he doesn't like the action and will probably get out right before the close. This, after commenting only an hour or so ago that the S&P was just testing its moving average, which is normal. WTF?

    I'm wondering what good "cycles theory" is if it can change on the emotion of one day's action. And this is the second time this type of reactionary "change of mind" has happened in the past two weeks.
    I already know how to jump in and out, and sell at the market low like a rookie, without paying for a service to show me how to do that.

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  24. MrMiyagi,

    There is always some subjective judgment in trading, no matter what system one uses. I just consider stocks dangerous because any systemic shocks... which are a constant threat these days... will see stocks collapse. This risk is more poignant given the expectation for a renewal of the bear market in the near future.

    It's like my old saying... which Gary is quite fond of and honors with frequent recitation... that in a bull market surprises come to the upside. Well, if stocks are about to go in bear mode, the surprises should start coming to the downside, and I don't want exposure to negative surprises.

    The opposite is true for gold. I don't see any possible development that would cause gold price to collapse, so playing a daily cycle bounce in PMs is a safer and more controlled endeavor.

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  25. Thanks for the comment Doc. It's nice to hear both yours and Gary's POV with the cycles, trends, etc.

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  26. Fwiw, I started trading a little bit with Option House. Very satisfied with their fills.. blows away ToS, who seem to make you chase a fill.
    Big downside is the platform. It's web-based and not quite there.. Good for basic buys/sells, but for getting fancy with opt. spreads, etc. it starts falling apart.
    ToS still my main platform, but after the merger with AMTD & the silver margin hikes I am siphoning business away from them. Definitely not the same co. it was a few years back.

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  27. ckpc,

    The test of the 10 day MA failed, that's why Gary is exiting (depending on where the close ends up).

    A test is a test, sometimes it bounces on the price, sometimes the test fails.

    If you're using a test price where you expect price to hold and go up from there, you'd want your buy order slightly above the test price and your stops below it.

    The more conservative way to play it is to wait and see whether the market passes the test.

    When I take a trade, I always want to know where my stop is going to be. I have to know that in order to determine the amount I'm willing to risk as well as the amount I could gain if the trade goes my way. Then I have to have the discipline to get out if my stop is hit.

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  28. SB, Nice to see your smiling, reassuring face!! Enjoy your vacation:)

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  29. Broker Dealers XBD Testing Yearly Low :

    http://screencast.com/t/fSuTn8rkhnY

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  30. Doc,
    If you're still around,
    Thanks for the response, next question is if you're thinking about gold is upwards, how does cycles come into it, again, you are both detrminig projections based on it.

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  31. Cory, DG or Fubsy... any interest in the intra-day reversal in EUO and UUP ? I'm long EUO, long SLV Oct 40 Puts and short some individuals...

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  32. AAPL 2 HOUR CHART:

    http://screencast.com/t/Ju2lhXwBo

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  33. Gann360,
    Thanks again, I wouldn't mind seeing a comment on your expectations either in your post or chart if that's ok with you.

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  34. Please do not! make any Financial Decisions on any of my Charts or Opinions. i got enough Pressure on me.

    If your TA Matches my Opinion, than Great, I believe we are in Dangerous Times ,I believe Silver May Fall back down Soon ( my Early June Pivot in Time ) May !! be a Lower high...i could be Wrong ,

    I started a Very Little Short in Silver via ( ZSL ) With money i could Lose.if i am right than Great. i should do really Well,

    The markets could retest the High's ... but not all of them, some may put inn a Lower high and as u see Financial as they did in 2007 ,Put in a Top 6 months before the SP-500 did ,,,and showed a Divergence back than . LOOKS TO BE dOING THE SAME THING Now,,,With Divergences and Non Confirmations, with different sectors.

    Again no one has a Crystal ball, Trading is a hard way to make a Living, so Careful and Good Luck to You.

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  35. Gann360,
    I understand what you are saying and your reluctance.
    I'm not asking for advice! Rather, I like to know the thinking behind the posting.... if that's clear...

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  36. SLV, again, low volume about 60-65%.

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  37. Dollar looks like it wants to form a bottom. If that's true, gold may not have much more to go. As Gary stated, dollar could turn, around employment #. I'm lucky to have doubled on my GLD calls bought last week. Selling & staying out to be safe.

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  38. Yea I sold everything, except my July GLD 149 that I picked up early today and am down like 35 cents on. Going to see how this plays out. No problem waiting to the A wave.

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  39. 2 cents

    I too believe the secular bear has (or soon will) return -- (No big surprise there). I also believe the Federal Reserve will attempt to rescue us. (Again, no surprise there) A foolish venture and this bailout will not have the same result. Too many headwinds. Consequently their desire to save us from ourselves will give rise to the mother of all Bull Markets in Gold. When? Depends on the pain most of America endures via Stock Market values plummeting, No jobs, Housing prices continuing to fall etc. I will leave this timing call to Gary but until we as a society go through the actual cleansing process (from decades of easy money) we will continue to endure a slow agonizing pain. I believe many in society are experiencing this frustration as headlines of abnormal brutality make the news. Most just do not understand the actual reason behind their pain or frustration. We are in a world of hurt (picture the proverbial frog in the boiling pot) and most do not even realize and more yet DO NOT understand. Good Luck to all.

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  40. In the A wave, are we likely to be back up at these levels again? Replies appreciated

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  41. Michael: I am back on my heals as the markets have done things I have not expected.. I am long a little EUO and added a little more today. I have about 1/4 of what I would like to though. I am back on my heals because the markets are not doing what I expected today.

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  42. Eamonn-- I believe we will -- (But take that with a grain of salt) :)

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  43. time to buy some stocks :)

    they just went on sale

    sold my pm bullion positions, i got to collect paper profit sometime.

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  44. DG,
    Are you still going to be holding onto your SPY and QQQ?

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  45. Observation chart on Daily Silver
    2 different Fib Time Hits , Hmm

    http://screencast.com/t/bnzKeYvbk

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  46. Daniel, thank you for your reply. Your post above was very interesting. Ireland is heading back into recession this summer, almost 16% unemployment now. Europe is also heading back into a double dip recession this summer, I believe. China heading towards a recession too, IMO.

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  47. DG,
    no QE3, no double dip, no worry.

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  48. Biggest surprise of the day for me is why it took so long for the dam to break on silver. Shocked it held up as well as it did.

    We're now at $37. Give me $30!!!!!

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  49. i hope don't go throwing things out the window SPX 1318 is low, stay about SPX 1314 will ya :)

    c'mon

    anyways i'm starting to accumulate SPX now. It's cheap enough, but yeah there may be one more flush out by 4th week of June to make everyone cry.

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  50. Hot Rod,
    I am with you in that camp. 30-32$ silver in the next 2 weeks would satisfy me.

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  51. This sell off is amazing! I wonder how Asia will see this... should be interesting, regardless.

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  52. all outta my GLD call trade ... schtopped out on the swift decline

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  53. DG - understood.. a surprising day...

    Gary, you called the turn in the dollar spot on...

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  54. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  55. bank is drooping like stone.

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  56. Out of GLD, nice ride. Out of SPY calls for good losses. SLV put only trade left.

    We have 10 minutes, left, we COULD print a failed daily cycle after 1 day.....yikes!

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  57. If you're asking someone about their trades you must bear in mind a whole host of issues regarding their trading e.g. his size relative to you, timeframe and portfolio structure. A guy with $100,000 in his online account has different issues to the guy with $10 mn of which 20% is for trading.

    Trade calls are all offense, but what's your defense like? Your money management and bet size will determine success.
    More experienced traders understand that markets are range-bound 75% of the time and for bread-and-butter are methodical in terms of a stop level (in conjunction with great cycle work here), profit targets, when to move stop to break-even etc. If you don't have a structure in place for the above then no amount of following other people's trades or calls will do the trick for you.

    Good call on exit Gary - today's morning action and bid-hitting uglier than ugly.

    MS

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  58. DG, I think we all are back on our heels today. But my SLV Puts are looking much better than they did last month. :)

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  59. Ryan. Nope, I am out. When the mkt does something dramatic that I don't expect I assume I am missing something. Getting out does two things: it clears your head so you can get a fresh look without "hoping" for something. It takes a small loss and accepts that the mkt may be right and you may be wrong. I am having a decent year and do not plan on turning it into a losing one.

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  60. Despite this dollar strength, Gold is acting like a real champ here.

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  61. see if market V-shape reverse here

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  62. Poly,

    Nice trade on GLD. Which SLV puts did you buy.

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  63. Looks like someone is buying the close...

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  64. Quick SPX uPDATE :

    http://screencast.com/t/me9vcEyv

    Those warning signs From.... AAPL TRANSPORTS / Broker dealers ...

    Help give us a Heads Up . on Possible Danger Lurking !

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  65. DG,
    Thanks for the update. I think that's probably the best thing to do as well. Going to lick my wounds and save capital for a wave.

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  66. Sandy,

    I've had SLV July $38's for a few days, they were purchased as a hedge for my GLD calls, they worked well today. The plan was to see new gold high's, cash in and then turn the SLV's into a position to ride the daily cycle down.

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  67. Poly, Very nice. Glad it worked out well.

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  68. Maybe they will raise the margin req. for shorting the SPY.

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  69. For gold, this almost looks like the spike silver put in in early May, couldn't hold, dropped and dropped...

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  70. A couple more days like this and maybe my stubborn Disney puts will pay off.

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  71. Greece getting downgraded AGAIN, created the safe haven play (Gold and USD), thats all that happened.

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  72. Sandy, it worked out well, except trying to catch SPY Weekly (June 3rd) 3 times was not a smart idea.....

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  73. In keeping with Gary's approach I dumped my small equity positions a few minutes before close. The market is not behaving at all within my or Gary's framework of expectations and in that situation I will always step aside.

    Losses were negligible but I sure didn't expect my nice gains from yesterday to evaporate by end of day today!

    This was mainly a "for the heck of it" trade. Silver lining is I had the discipline to play small ball.

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  74. Does anybody know why silver diverged from gold today? My .04% in ZSL did very well today.

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  75. funmike, I'd venture a guess that it's continued malfunction as a consequence of the recent broken parabola.

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  76. funmike, gold was a safe haven today, while silver was simply a commodity.

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  77. So there wasn't any news that anyone is aware of (like margins hikes, etc) I've been too busy to keep up with every thing today, Thanks

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  78. funmike,
    Nothing I see, maybe seeing the S&P slide, whoever bought SLV/silver figured it's time to call it break-even.

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  79. If this is any Indication,My Call for a Possible Top in Silver ( lower High ) May Just Happen !Based on Cycles and Fib Time Counts .:)

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  80. Gann360,
    Are you in the US? Just curious...

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  81. i leave in Turks & Caicos Island ,But i do have a Condo in Florida

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  82. Turks and Caicos... didn't they offer to be part of Canada 15 or so years ago?

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  83. Why am I feeling like I am on the wrong side of this roller coaster ride?

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  84. Can we long the dollar? Is this the cycle bottom?

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  85. aaron it's been a roller coaster since the end of march. wheee!

    no one is buying SPX? c'mon it's cheap.

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  86. Falling knife Edwin, falling knife.

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  87. I have no comment on cycles today. ;-)

    The $USD did put in an outside, upside reversal candle today, marking a significant pivot low. Looks like it goes higher here, though one day candles aren't as reliable as they used to be.

    I'm 100% in cash, waiting for PM's to bottom mid-Summer.

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  88. FWIW -I recently read (where?who?) that the Japanese earthquake on March 11 didn't affect global production greatly for 1st quarter results. But because so many electronic and car parts didn't get sent from Japan to manufacturers since then, 2nd quarter returns will result in poor profits - could have a big impact on the stock market,late
    June into July.

    Sounded reasonable to me.

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  89. I'm reading the same, Diana. One thing not in the news too much is the fact that, the reason for parts shortages is the same as for production line shutdowns - which is that the Fukushima power plants were the MAIN power supply for Tokyo, a city of 20 million, formerly the 2nd largest city in the world behind Mexico city. So the govm't has imposed forced power outages - and this is causing cronic supply chain stoppages. Not to mention China limiting sales of rare earths. This summer will be worse in Japan, as when it gets hot, in addition to power problems in plants, everyone w/an air con will have to reduce usage. I used to work at a steel plant in Kobe, and I remember the humidity was so high in the summer that water would condense on the ceiling in the office, and drip down on my table. I was in a full sweat for like 3 months, 24x7. The upside was I lost a lot of weight!

    Prepare for further problems w/Japanese supply as the summer heats up, and the limited power is further rationalized.

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  90. While I would not want to be long here, this board has become an emotional roller coaster. I would not be surprised at all if we got a nice bounce tomorrow.

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  91. Back to the market, regarding PM's, 3 things point to lower prices.

    1 - Gary's cycle magic, the operative word being "magic" ;-)

    2 - Gary's post that the $HUI made a lower low in mid-May

    3 - DG's comment that the $HUI leads $GOLD (in this case, down)

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  92. Bearish engulfing pattern on S&P 500 today.

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  93. 4 - and the $USD making a pivot low via an outside reversal candle today

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  94. Alex, re: the $SPX, one thing I've looking at the fact that yesterday's high did NOT make a higher high, and also that today's low did NOT make a lower low. It's visible on the daily chart, but easier to see on the 60 min.

    At this point I'm not sure whats going on w/the $SPX, but I do agree w/Gary that IRA's should get out, as the weekly $SPX looks like its topping.

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  95. Bill,

    Gary's cycles aren't "magic". They are just guides to when to execute a trade like general trading rules ie. Fridays are usually sell off days in stocks, gold prices drop almost everyday at the same time in the afternoon, etc, etc...

    The cycles haven't been co-operating at all since the silver drop in May but that may be due to miscounting the cycles ie. thinking there was 3 daily cycles left to C top when there was only 2 or there were 3 cycles with 1 really short cycle that was missed.

    Who really knows until after the fact.

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  96. I forgot to mention that those were 149 GLD July PUTS, I was down 35 cents at one point and I actually finished up. I kind of hope this was an exhaustion candle on Gold and we can get started with the Dwave.

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  97. Hi n1tro, yup, thanks for that.

    You've nailed for me the exact problem I have w/my understanding of stock cycles. In nature, if the sun didn't rise, or if spring didn't sprung, or if the 1/2 life of a uranium atom were to miss a tick, those cycles would be broken. But w/stocks, its left/right/failed. Stock cycles are fuzzy, and that's exactly the problem in my head. I'm keeping an open mind though, and read all that everyone says, usually twice. Thanks.

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  98. Bill, whats life in Japan like? :o)

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  99. Question ??
    Which Industry is stretched the furthest above 200 DMA?
    I believe the Russell 200 is the major index most stretched (correct me if I have that wrong) but I was hoping to narrow that down to industry? Can anyone do this much quicker than I on TOS or StockCharts or elsewhere.
    VERY MUCH APPRECIATED! Thank YOU in advance.

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  100. OOps that was Russell 2000 above :))

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  101. Éamonn, different. I'm from Seattle/Boulder, and there everything is nature and science - here it's all culture. If I grew up on the east coast US, where culture and heritage are more prominent, then I would probably better able to frame it.

    Learning a different language (other than Germanic) has taught me that how we think in words is how we see reality, and that by learning a different language altogether different, yields a new reality.

    I also understand history and mankind much better now, the true nature of humans. And of myself.

    In short, I don't have a fucking clue about life, but I know that much better now. ;-)

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  102. Bill, thanks. LOL on your last statement, however I think everyone has those feelings about life too!
    I hope that learning the true nature of yourself has not terrified you ;o)

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  103. Bill,

    The prudent thing would be to track/run several cycles/scenarios in tandem ie. the silver beat down last month (lets call it the D wave), would the rally of gold back to $1550 today be a counter rally that are in D waves that we are warned of? I haven't read enough about the cycles to start running my own count but I think I will start. Cycles are far from being the "bible" for trading especially if it is miscounted. The key is to do your own due diligence and make up your own decision for trading.

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  104. Actually it's humbled me, but I have a long ways to go still. ;-)

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  105. Deserving of Its Own Postfrom Along The Watchtower by Turd Ferguson
    Please read and take time to fully consider this. We now know why The Empire chose to aggressively pursue silver on the Globex this afternoon. This is a war that the C/C/C (cme/comex/cartel) will lose but they will do everything in their power to prevent their collapse and prosecution.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/scotia-mocatta-loses-60-its-physical-silver-one-month-reclassification-total-comex-registere

    DO NOT LET THE MANIPULATING, CRIMINAL CARTEL FRIGHTEN YOU OUT OF YOUR PHYSICAL METAL. BUY PUTS FOR THE SHORT TERM IF YOU MUST BUT CHERISH YOUR METAL. IT IS YOUR ONLY INSURANCE AGAINST FINANCIAL DISASTER.

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  106. I would not be in too a hurry to front run this D-wave. A lot of discounting of the employment report happened today.

    Gold is still in a nice up channel, and Euro weakness has buyers there flooding into the yellow metal.

    I am staying long gold, have selective high beta shorts, and am in the process of building a large oil short position over the next week or so.

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  107. Bob,

    I agree, a one day move is not a trend. The dollar could still easily head lower from here. Weve seen these types of one day fake outs many times before.

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  108. Bob, if you're about to short oil, don't you think that gold will also go down w/it? The idea there being that the $USD would rally, causing the both to fall? Or are you shorting oil because $OSX is leading down now? And are you not worried about the $HUI'S lower low last month?

    As long as you have a stop in gold, all power to you, but watch your back.

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  109. CME lowers margins on S&P Futures-all in

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  110. Bob, also if you don't mind I'd like to learn your take on cotton here, via BAL. Looks ready to bust out on the chart, but I don't know the fundamentals like you. Heard of too much water in India, too little in Texas, is all. Thanks.

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  111. Bill, I always scale into my positions, oil being my D wave play. I always sell weekly calls against my gold calls and the trade is permanently green, as the trade is green and all of my hedges I sold on them for the past two months are green.

    I will close gold when it breaks my support line, and it has not.

    I do not follow cotton, but all commodities are going to get crushed.

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  112. Gary, if you are reading, Wired June 2011, has a great article on emerging industries. You will like it a lot.

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  113. I'll look for it at the airport. I'm going to need something to read for the 12 hour flight.

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  114. Hey y'all,

    ES isn't a dead duck, yet. Look for small range consolidation tomorrow. Then fri might tip the hand.

    Lovin my zsl, lookin for 22 silver, once it breaks this trade range.

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  115. Where's Beanie? 2 more points on the S&P and his hope for Dow 36,000 is gone.

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  116. He is lobbying at the Federal Reserve!!

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  117. Lol..

    Gary

    Will you short the stockmarket?

    We might have seen the daily cycle low in the dollar. That will put more pressure on the stockmarket.

    Maybe short S&P and oil?

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  118. gary would you long the dollar now with the stop at todays low?

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  119. Beanie got VERY bullish on Silver at the VERY top. Just sayin'!

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  120. I have a couple of strategies for the bear and the intermediate decline that I'm going to use personally.

    I'm not really sure what I will do with the model portfolio. If this turns into a bear they are tough to trade.

    Possibly just a modest short position that will be held into the next 4 year cycle low. this isn't going to be easy as I'm going to explain in tonight's report.

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  121. Bob, thanks for your reply. Too many moving parts for my pea brain though. You are in the flow, that I can see. BTW, I thought you mentioned several mos ago that you bought wholesale cloth ... hence my q on cotton. I must have flipped a bit.

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  122. Gary,

    Since you're making this trip, have you considered nailing Mont Blanc? It's not that far off, and it's a step 'n breather to the top I think. A classic climb, something to consider.

    Did you know that the Matterhorn is made up of rocks from 3 continents, that then got sliced through by glaciers? Pretty amazing reverse engineering to figure that out.

    Anyways good luck!

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  123. I have a low on the ES of 1309.5, so can we book this as a failed daily cycle yet?

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  124. So as mentioned by Armstrong, June 13 might be the date to watch for when we get the low in gold/silver.

    But for that to occur, we would have to see like 15-20$ drop in a day for gold.

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  125. Troy

    Sounds early if we will se a sell of in stocks in the next 8-10 weeks..

    Maybe he is predicting i daily cycle low at june 13..And then a bounce..

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  126. June 13 would be a really long daily cycle. I think it's more likely we get a bottom next week and then another full daily cycle down.

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  127. Gary!

    We might get the confirmation today or on friday..

    So this can be a real mess and the stockmarket might fall as much as 25-30% in 8-12 weeks?

    Sure a lot can happen but if we get the confirmation and takes out the daily cycle low 1311 the odds for a market crash is high.

    Is it rare to see a daily cycle topping in only 3 days?

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  128. Well not really a crash but 20-30% in 3 months would be a pretty severe move down. Of course there's no way to tell yet how hard the correction will be.

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  129. Anyone realize that the DOW already took out last week's lows. Futures trying hard to hold green after such a severe sell off.

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  130. That's right. This should not have happened so I suspect the market IS going to officially violate the cycle low soon. I'm going to wait for confirmation before acting though.

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  131. Gary, is the confirmation you seek a close below the previous daily low, or will you act on an intra-day tag of that low? Thanks.

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  132. Intraday is all that's required

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  133. What is a Dow Theory non-confirmation and what will it take to achieve it in the current market circumstances? Thanks

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  134. Thanks. We are super close, huh. Any chance this is one of those shine balls the market likes to pitch our way and we wake up to a bounce?

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  135. Great report Gary, despite the sell off today everything seems to still be within its upward channel. If we get a bounce tomorrow and no major moves on friday then we will have to wait until next week to receive any confirmations of breakdowns.

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  136. Officially the daily cycle is still intact. However this should not have happened if the bull was well so at this point I'm out of longs.

    The bottom of the daily cycle was our best chance of a profitable long side trade. It isn't doing what it should be doing so I don't want to play any longer.

    The same as with gold. It hasn't been doing what I thought it should do so I don't want to play in that sand box right now either.

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  137. Once again, no bull market in history has contained more than one 10% correction. We had one last summer. We are a whopping 4.1% from the recent SPX highs and all I read here is how folks are going to trade the "bear." Until the market tells me differently via price and not fundamentals, cycles, EW, etc., I will trade the market we have, which is a bull. The market is in a correction that is forming a wide, choppy base before the next leg higher. This is a healthy consolidation that could continue for weeks/months. Unless I see a correction greater than 10% off the top, all I hear is bear noise. Please be careful shorting and have an "I'm wrong" line in the sand before you place a trade.

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  138. It looks like 4 weeks ago we had a weekly key reversal to the downside in the SPX.

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  139. Thanks Gary. I appreciated your extensive report tonight. Have fun climbing Switzerland!

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  140. That is where you are wrong. If the daily cycle low breaks it will signal an intermediate cycle that is extremely left translated. Those don't occur in healthy markets. Left translated intermediate cycles are what bear markets are made of.

    Even the mess last summer wasn't a left translated cycle.

    And if the March intermediate low is take out, which it almost certainly will be during a left translated cycle, then we will have confirmation of a new bear market.

    Actually the first confirmation will be the failed daily cycle. 1311 is critical at this point. It has to hold or the bull is almost certainly done.

    Fundamentally it's becoming more and more obvious that the global economy is slipping back into recession. I don't think there has ever been a market that was able to resist a recession.

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  141. Thanks for the report Gary. If we do take a short when SPX crosses 1311 intraday, where would a logical stop be per cycles?

    Also, what are the odds per cycles, that 1311 was not a bottom and the low this week or next would be the cycle bottom with a rally higher?

    Thanks and have fun in Europe!

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  142. Hi Gary,

    Every time you mention the price printing below a certain obvious support level (the SPX for instance) it reminds me of when you have said that the boyz like to take it below a certain support level to get rid of the longs, then drive it higher. Do the cycles take precedence over this tendency?

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  143. Good point Driver.

    Gary, one more question, if 1311 breaks here this week or next, what are the odds of a new high (or a rally back to old highs) in this intermediate cycle?

    What are the odds that a failure of this daily cycle means that this intermediate cycle will fail?

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  144. Gary,
    When it's time to short, can you also suggest a short ETF that we can use in the report. Thanks and have a safe trip.

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  145. Driver,
    If that happens deep into a cycle then there is rational for the move being smart money trying to enter positions.

    However to break below a daily cycle low after only 4 or 5 days is a serious signal that the market is in trouble.

    I'm still in limbo with what I want to do with the model portfolio. Bear markets are tough to trade. Especially ones where the Fed is going to fight them tooth and nail.

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  146. Here's an analysis of what took place yesterday. He claims one should not sell into the fear, at a potential short term bottom, but wait for a bounce that usually occurs after a day of such extreme sentiments, with a 20:1 sell:buy ratio.

    http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/market-sentiment-and-volume-reach-extreme-panic-levels/

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  147. Updated dollar charts for those interested.

    The narrowing range of the downtrend from June last year suggests a falling wedge is forming (this isn't shown on the chart). The final bottom will give us a medium term target for the rally.

    $USD big

    $USD small

    UUP chart

    Please note this is not intended as investment advice.

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  148. Gary,

    A 100% cash position in the model portfolio is okay with me for now ;D

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  149. Trond,
    Chris has consistently been wrong time after time in the market. I think mostly because he tries to trade based solely off charts.

    At 11 weeks it's almost impossible to get an intermediate cycle low here.

    I would say there was very little fear in the market at the beginning of the day.

    After Tuesday's big move up the only reason for the market to turn on a dime this early in a daily cycle and take a dump like that is because smart money knows something is wrong with the economy and they began selling.

    We probably should get some kind of bounce after a 90% down volume day but there is absolutely no reason to be long anymore. Especially not for what will likely turn out to be just a minor pop before a continuation of the down trend, and one that's likely to start accelerating.

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  150. Real story - my industrial sector neighbour was buying all the IPOs in late 2007 and early 2008 in an emerging market. Then shorting everything throughout all of 2009. In 2010 he swore off the market forever after blowing up a sizable friends & co fund. He can't take it anymore and just came back to buy a coming June 2011 IPO - strong signal in effect here.

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