UUP just closed the gap now and has the 20DMA and 50DMA right below it. If this holds it should be the springboard the dollar needs to push through that monster trendline above it and get to the 200DMA during this daily cycle.
If I'm not then we all have a lot of rethinking to do about the upcoming market direction. The market always tries to juke people the opposite direction before making its real move. It's doing a good job. Looking for a breakout to the 200DMA, retest of the May 23rd high, one more cycle up that gets above the 200DMA (below 200DMA on gold), and then on that half cycle high in the dollar buying miners if there is capitulation volume (QE3?) to support it. My crystal ball doesn't work very often though.
That's the last place anybody should want to trade.
Remember me saying how hard it is to trade bear markets and counter trend rallies always look like the real thing? Which of course makes it nearly impossible to sell into a rally.
Folks do yourself a favor and let somebody else fight with stock market.
Driver, The Fed’s continuing purchases of treasuries is not considered QE3. It is just them continuing to reinvest the proceeds of maturing treasuries and MBS securities, and does not represent additional capital or an expansion of their balance sheet.
The Fed purchased about $1.2 trillion in treasuries and MBS securities during QE and about $600B in treasuries under QE2, so they expanded their balance sheet by about $1.8T. Now over time, this $1.8T portfolio of securities would be self-liquidating as the securities mature or the securitized mortgages in the MBS are prepaid or defaulted on. Instead, however, the Fed is taking the proceeds from these maturing securities and rolling it into the purchase of new treasuries. This way, they are maintaining the size of their balance sheet at its existing level and not allowing liquidity to drain from the system.
It’s the same as if you had purchased a treasury bond for $1000where you would receive a coupon payment over the life of the bond and then a return of your $1000 principal at the end. Instead of taking your $1000 principal back at the end, however, you decide instead to roll it over into the purchase of another $1000 bond.
I know what a lot of you are thinking you short the market, increase your capital, double it if you're leveraged, and then you have more to invest when the A-wave it comes.
But what if you are wrong and all you do is half your capital?
I strongly urge everyone to just play it safe and get to the bottom of the intermediate correction with all of your capital intact.
Gary, if the market turns around and makes higher highs, Im out, anything over the 50DMA, and Im fully out. Again, its a risk trade, which is not suitable for all. Everyone is responsible for their own trade.
gough You're welcome, I'm a futures trader and I'm holding a short position for a swing trade on Gold futures. It's my pleasure to be here. Sharing it helps me to trade cleaner and with discipline.
"That's the problem with trying to trade a bear market before confirmation, one can never be sure the bear market has actually started.
Remember we don't have one single confirmation yet."
Gary, nice to see a softening on the bearish rhetoric. Inexperienced traders on your blog need to hear this kind of advice, regardless of what the news, fundamentals, etc. may say.
Torreo, I still think we've begun the third leg down in the secular bear market but I have been saying for several weeks now to just leave the market alone.
We made a little money on our short and that's good enough. Now we just need to get to the bottom of the gold intermediate correction and put that money to work.
DG, Regarding EUO, are you in as heavy as you were a couple of weeks ago or just in lightly? I was thinking of getting back into EUO myself, I'm assuming you bought some back this morning?
Keep in mind we tend to get counter trend rallies in the lead up to long weekends while all the big traders are leaving town for the holidays. The bear is likely to resume early next week.
Light volume should be the tell as Gary pointed out in yesterdays report.
Gary, Are you still expecting the gold intermediate correction to complete sometime in August? If I heard you correctly on the interview, you expected it to drop down to 1350 to 1400. We still have a way to go to reach that. Is your warning on the general stock market?
Thanks Gary, I have some puts on GLD and SLV that are profitable now, however going away for holiday weekend 3-8th coming up, so wanted to hold while away figuring I still have time.
Attention at ease, DG is standing by with electrodes hooked up to Gary. Whenever that CIC guy asks Gary what he thinks, DG points his finger and threatens to hit the shock button.
If TA indicators are the rearview mirror, then cycles must be stoping at the senic outlook restarea on top of each mountain and looking back to the previous mountain top with binoculars or a telescope.
Mind you, I wouldn't want to drive without a rearview mirror. Probably required equipment.
Actually what cycles do is give one an expected timing band for a correction, either short term as in a daily cycle, or a much larger degree intermediate term.
Cycles are like looking out the windshield whereas charting is projecting the past into the future.
If the bear in stocks takes its time, max loss for bull and bear alike, will this affect our decision to re-enter gold timewise?
I think the market will probably stretch as far as possible. Would your cycles be consistant with a possible A-Wave purchase this early fall, instead of the next couple months.
Bascially I think this thing will not end hard and fast. Slow and grind a lot longer than expceted(I am guessing this one). I have decided to put two dollars in the lottery each week instead of the market; figure my losses will be minimal this way.
Cycles seems more like driving in the woods when it's a little foggy. You see a road go by, you know you might need to take it, but you go a little further because it didn't look right. A mile later you come to an old landslide and so you go back, and now the road definitely looks like the right one to take after all. Some of the roads look pretty good when you encounter them, and so you confidently make the turn; others, not so and you wander around using up precious gas or even have to stop and put some money into repairs.
keys, I'm just going to play this as a "normal" intermediate cycle for gold. Which means we should have a bottom at the end of this current daily cycle.
That doesn't mean that the cycle can't stretch, it's just that I don't know how to guess that ahead of time, so in real time I treat it as a normal cycle unless proven otherwise.
at ease, that's my precise thought about Fib numbers... if everybody watches them and acts on them, it makes them come true, and if they don't stick, they watch the next one and even more people try to make it come true.
Kind of like Hubble? With every upgrade we were able to see further away, until we reached the limit of visual light projections, due to the speed of light traveling from the dawn of creation, etc.
Yes from the top of a mountain, you can theoretically look ahead as far as the highest peak but not beyond.
I tend to think of it as driving down the highway and knowing that a huge pothole is coming. When I get to the mile marker with the pothole I start to slow down. Once I passed the pothole I can stomp on the gas again.
This rally is a perfect opportunity for the active fund managers to sell into strength, book month end profits and re-shuffle their deck. Energy and tech stocks are in the buy zone...
I'd agree with that, Gary. The stuff one looks out for varies up to the 8-year cycle, so one does have a very good idea of when to go faster and more boldly and when to go slower to keep from blowing out all the tires.
HAND (have a nice day) -- I'm not saying anything about TA in particular, just that some things people chart can be self fulfilling. Or not... just something I ponder. Like the S&P bouncing off the 200 sma twice recently, and how so many people (bigger than me) were waiting with buy orders at that exact spot so of course it bounced. But for how long?
Same thing with $Gold hitting a new high or 1550. Everyone is lined up with their shorts galore. Will it work next time, or will it finally shoot through to near 1600, or has the hangover from the last attempt taken it down so far that the bulls will just let it spiral down?
Ryan: I bought back some, but have less than originally. I sold 1/4 at 17.59 and 1/4 at 17.45. Bought back on of them this morning at 17.05. It's a dangerous short because of all the gov''t interference, as gary has said.
Wm, you never know where the next pothole is. It can be this intermediate cycle or the next, etc. Eventually, after you start getting into the next IT cycle timeframe, you have to LOOK BACK and mark the last low as the IT bottom/completion.
Bonds might be signaling caution to equity/commodity shorts. TLT selling off pretty strong today, following through on yesterday's weakness and trading below June support.
Wm, stretch is a cycle analysis term. The corresponding EW term is extend (or something like that...)
Cycles stretch. EW waves extend. Waves can get very extended.
Incidentially, I think a lot of EW guys are currently dumbfounded still with a glimmer of hope for retest of SPX highs. The weekly chart is the simple way of seeing the same thing. As Gary would say, SPX appears ready to breach an IT low or whatever...
Sort of the same ideas with different semantics/terminology, kind of anyways.
so if this is a D wave there might be many intermediate cycles in it. which means this upcoming intermediate bottom (late july) might only be one in a larger D wave down?
would it then be smart to only put a portion of our capital to work at this upcoming intermediate bottom?
I was just wondering if we can apply cycle theory to A,B,C,D waves, because intermediate cycles are in all actuallity just smaller waves within big waves.
Mitchell, Only an eight year cycle low should have multiple intermediate cycles. But I do have a plan in case the intermediate bottom is tricky to spot.
"No the ABCD pattern has nothing to do with cycles other than major troughs will occur at intermediate cycle bottoms.
There can be many intermediate cycles in a C wave for instance."
I take it investing long in gold during a D or B wave is not a smart thing to do no matter what degree the correction, as they would mostly offer lower lows for daily and intermediate cycle troughs?
Every intermediate cycle of this C-wave clearly had two bounces before bottoming on the 150SMA, one off the 75SMA (like we are seeing today)and then again off the 100SMA.
Gary, Exactly referring to buying a D or B wave bottom. What I meant was buying long at the front end of a D or B wave, especially if they last more than a few months. Looking forward to reading about your D wave indicator later on.
William, I got you bigtime. What I was referring to exactly was trying to play the daily cycle troughs long while in a D or B wave, especially if they last several months.
I hear you, but timing that will get you slaughtered almost certainly...your better off entering as close to the bottom as possible and weather the draw downs on the way up. Holding fast through the whole wave (entry as close to the bottom, exit as close to the top) is how the most money will be made for sure.
Would you agree that the market is only rallying today in anticipation of a good outcome in Greece tomorrow, then its back to business to the downside?
unless we get a dramsatic turnaround here, i will be stopped out of my TWM position with a 1% loss to my portfolio. I'm considering letting it ride over night with the Geek decision on the way as I believe this will be a sell the news event..after all, what does an austerity measure really do for Greece? It leads to an extensive deflationary depression. WHat does it do for the EU? It puts them on the hook for more bailout moneys to save Greece, then Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Ireland etc.
The rise in the Euro over the past few days is speculative money betting on the Parliament voting for austerity. Once they do, what reason is there for the Euro to rise? None that I can think of. When the Euro stops rising, the dollar will, and the markets will resumre their downward trajectory.
I'll likely honor the stop in TWM as its bad practice to ignore stops.
I'll be adding to my EUO on a swing low reversal in the dollar.
I dont understand how these birds by my house crap right on my windows, they fly into the window sometimes and scare the crap out of me, so I am assuming that sometimes they see the window last second and say "oh SH#@" get the crap scared out of themself and crap on my window!
I pulled spy fibo from March low to May hi; I`m showing 61.8% @129.86.
Then $NYMO, connect tops from March though June. Should these two be pulling into town about the same time? Or is it just another one of those deals where 75 cents will get you a cup of coffee any where in town?
Wm, $SPX is due to rally back to top of falling trendline from a technical prespective.
Birds get the crap knocked out of them when they try to fly through a closed window. I soap my windows outside with detergent so the birds can see them better and don't think they can fly through, or close the curtains.
Willianm- Good observation on the 75DMA and then 100DMA causing gold price declines to pause during intermediate cycle lows. I'm not from Missouri, but I did have to be shown...so attached is the chat I created to test it. With the exception of the last Int Cycle low it's on the money.
http://tinypic.com/r/iz5h1e/7
Here's a closer view of just the last 4 Int lows...you can see it more clearly here..
But who needs detergent or curtains when ya got bird crap all over ya window, you would think they would see that and get tired of flying into their own crap!!
LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL, im gonna try that, then when they are in im going to close the window and tell them "now you cant leave" and shoot them dead! Im going crap shooting.
I am betting on Godzilla versus King Kong...The bulls vs. the bears, in an all and out blood bath of MMA action. At this point I only want to be a spectator, far away, with binoculars....the stories Euro VS Greenback...the battle to see which currency is the shittiest. People aren't thinking cycles...the USD has been so hammered, I wouldn't be surprised if the battle is long and hard...one where spectators keep changing sides...either way I expect extreme volatility...but this for the dramatic...I wouldn't be surprised if we just go in circles for a couple months, like silver has been doing, waiting for both sides to tire out. Of course I could be wrong, but a bear making new highs, would be a very hard platform to work with.
Yes, keeping the crap on the window is an alternative that works, but I did not mention it. I would never consider it. Maybe draw an "X" across the window with a bar of soap. Better wash those windows or we will start calling you a crappy trader or crappy insights. Get a scarecrow. Post your pic in the window with scotch tape.
My dad and the neighbor did that one time with ducks in the neighbors porch. Those great big fat winter mallards. I think they wound up with 14 ducks. My neighbor cleaned the porch and my folks cleaned the ducks and I think my folks got done first. I guess when my neighbor snuck around the house and closed the porch door, it got REALLY radical. The ducks got Margin called for real! LOL!
I made a video yesterday to win a $50K kitchen makeover, i will know thursday if I win. My wife forced me to do it, I dont like handouts or legouts :), but she keeps trying to convince me I cant do everything alone, now that I am almost finished with the whole damn house!!!
William, Good luck on the video and I hope you win! It's not a hand out, if you did something for it. I wanted to buy a dining room set from a particular store. The saleswoman told me they were running a contest and the prize was the exact table set and chairs I wanted. All that was required was to write a short essay on decorating and she said they never get a lot of entries, so was worth a try. I wrote it and had my DIL edit it and won! I wish you the same luck!
They were dropping bombs in my pool one year like a re-enactment of pearl harbor, it was crazy, I dont know what caused the all out attack that year, but I sat outside with my paint gun and unloaded on them like a maniac, shot up their trees and all! Could you believe it actually worked, they stopped. I dont want to do it out my windows my neighbors will really think im sick in the head then.
My history is a little fuzzy but I think it was William the Great, followed by William the conqueror and now SMT has it`s own William the Insane. Glad you showed up brother, it was getting a little quiet here by myself..........
86/William, We had two big old cherry trees near the driveway. Damn birds would sit in one and eat and sit in the tree that hung over the driveway and crap all over the cars. We cut the branches hanging over driveway, but they still were hitting the cars. Finally, just cut down both the trees as they were old and not really healthy looking anyhow. No more problems, cars stay much cleaner now. :)
LOL..quiet?? Yesterday, Edwin was saying that he wishes Dan was standing in front of him so he could knock his teeth out, just for telling him he should go to a numismatic forum because he said he is in PM's for life!
William, I'm hoping this next A wave is really good to you so you can possibly pay for an exterminator to treat the bird problems. Somehow I doubt paintballs are a long term solution.
You gotta see the tree I had cut down in my yard, it cost me $1800, this tree was like 100 ft. tall and 100 Years old with like 100 crazy crapping dive bombers in it.
Believe it or not it really was a long term solution, to the pool problem that is...if I shot at you with a machine gun I dont think you would be back for more would ya?? LOL
William the Insane, I love roses, especially my dozens of pink rose bushes all around my house and up my driveway. They are just gorgeous with my blue Hydrangeas all around my yard in VA. It's just killing me I can't carry back or import some of these beautiful English roses back to the states from London. I have tried to find nuseries in the states that carry them, no luck.
Ben, Had a neighbors cousin take em down (who was in the business) and donated the wood to a neighbor who makes wooden bowls and such. He in turn gave us back a beautiful wood bowl and pepper shaker made from the tree.
Thanks Fergie, I will check them out! I hope I can find some of them.
They have some beautiful roses over here in London. My husband thinks I am nuts as I take a lot of photos of the rose bushes in peoples yards and the flower box and container combinations they do in downtown London.
My hope is to make enough money in the markets, so once we finally settle down, I can get back to painting. Meanwhile, I take lots of photos of the sights I see (and florals) wherever I go in Europe.
So many old things over here, that are old and have so much character.
My wife and I are thumbless when it comes to greenery; planted herbs, they all died. Planted tomatoes, struggling (with 20 hours of sunshine per day). Lawn, dry and dull, assorted plants, in various stages of mortality. We love nature but can't grow it.
I think 7 Am Eastern, But you wont be able to see anything on CNN because of the tear gas, they like to get right up in the action...didnt Anderson Cooper get punched in the mouth like 3-4 times recently somewhere?
My wife just gave me a plate of samon and I thought it was a piece of french toast, thats what it looked like. I got Europe on the mind.
Mr M, Check this one out; the Big Book of Gardening Skills. No author, just from the editors of garden way publishing. Honestly, this is a really great book. It`s the whole enchilada on gardening.
If making money in financial markets were as easy as looking at the fundamentals, or as Seykota calls it "funnymentals", than nobody would lose. Right now even my son´s nanny knows the world is in a mess and the US economy is in a bad situation, so I can garantee you that that information is useless.
David, Understood, but as I remember you used to post here somewhat frequently and I also remember you were one to listen too. I`m saying you didn`t just pick 1450 out of thin air; that`s a big number.
In my opinion the only way the market can go higher is if the dollar heads back down. One would have to assume that May was not the three year cycle low for that to play out.
Fergie, Thanks for the link, I found a few of the DA English roses I was looking for. I have to find my list to see if they have any of the others that aren't the DA english roses. Thank you again! :)
The 1450 is a rough guess based on a few things...
1- Markets like to marginally break obvious support and resistance pivots before reversing. There is an obvious pivot from May 2008 at around 1437.
2- If we trade above the trading range that we are in since the beginning of the year (1250-1370), using a P&F count the projection would be around 1450 as well.
No problem. I've been to their gardens many times and know that they travel to the UK almost as much I have. They have the largest collection that I've ever seen. . .worldwide.
The past 20 days the market has been trading in a range, rotating up and down in bigger and bigger swings. This is the condition we need for a big trend to begin. Big trends begin when most market participants get tired of being thrown around and whipsawed to death and thus become reluctant to take the next signal. They are the ones who will fuel the upcoming trend.
So my plan is to add to my longs tomorrow above 1294 (ES), and if the market trades back into the trading range and goes below 1270 or so, I will stop out and reverse to the short side.
One scenario would be a worsening of the macro environment (beyond what regional manufacturing/employment has shown) and a resumption of fed easing in some capacity come Aug/Sep. I would expect only the fed could push the 3yr cycle out?
I still see us needing to find a decent (correction) IT cycle low in Aug to support such a large move to say 1,450. But on the flip side another big move higher within the next IT cycle should come with 1,250 holding support.
We also also plenty of time left in the 4 yr cycle to support another IT cycle higher. Time will tell, this current IT cycle will reveal much of what is too come, IMO.
David & Poly, Thank you both for your input. I`m leaning for the drop personally, looking at the drop we have had so far, and David, while your points are good, I just can`t see it another way. The Fed NEEDS to have the wheels come off before they can start printing again and that,I feel, is one of the main objectives. Thanks again.
At ease, I try to schedule either Chelsea (May) or Hampton Court (June) Garden Shows, but two trips to Europe already this year and I'm avoiding long hauls 'til the holidays. Too bad you have to leave. UK is a great place.
Actually, a strong dollar is good for the US economy and good for America.
Somehow it got bastardized the last couple of years where strong dollar went with falling stock market. However, things are about to change from this point on.
Why would anyone want to invest in the stock market and maybe make 5 to 10% in 4 to 5 months if they were lucky and assuming this isn't a new bear market?
They could instead just wait for gold to finish its intermediate decline and make 10% or more in three or four days in mining stocks.
..it seems that the "cute&tiny" bounce it's over...
ReplyDeleteAnother great interview! Always good to hear the big picture.
ReplyDeleteFergie
ReplyDeletenice avatar...
QE3:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/fed-seen-buying-25-billion-a-month-in-treasuries-after-qe2-comes-to-end.html
Thanks! It conveys my pm support without having to say anything. I try to keep things as simple as possible.
ReplyDeleteEuro on fire... Getting ripe for a short soon.
ReplyDeleteDriver,
ReplyDeleteyou'll have to add a zero after that monthly figure if it should qualify as QE3...
Childish imbeciles, if you want to be successful grow up.
ReplyDelete/DX watch 75.35 hourly IHS & 74.59 for a daily IHS.
ReplyDeleteMake that /DX 74.80~
ReplyDeleteDX 240min http://bit.ly/kxh4Hn
ReplyDeleteI will buy back some of the euo I sold if/when FXE hits 143.40
ReplyDelete$USD p&f daily http://bit.ly/jmg5Q9
ReplyDeleteDG Im with you on that one.
ReplyDeleteGood luck!
If this keeps up, will augment my Euro short with an Aussie short...either later today or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteUUP just closed the gap now and has the 20DMA and 50DMA right below it. If this holds it should be the springboard the dollar needs to push through that monster trendline above it and get to the 200DMA during this daily cycle.
ReplyDeleteHoping you're right Cory..
ReplyDeleteIf I'm not then we all have a lot of rethinking to do about the upcoming market direction. The market always tries to juke people the opposite direction before making its real move. It's doing a good job. Looking for a breakout to the 200DMA, retest of the May 23rd high, one more cycle up that gets above the 200DMA (below 200DMA on gold), and then on that half cycle high in the dollar buying miners if there is capitulation volume (QE3?) to support it. My crystal ball doesn't work very often though.
ReplyDeletethanks for those charts Valer..
ReplyDeletewhy does anybody care what the market doing?
ReplyDeleteThat's the last place anybody should want to trade.
Remember me saying how hard it is to trade bear markets and counter trend rallies always look like the real thing? Which of course makes it nearly impossible to sell into a rally.
Folks do yourself a favor and let somebody else fight with stock market.
Christian,
ReplyDeleteJust a teaser to test the waters and break the ice.
I am short the SnP Gary, and will ride this hing into the end of July if not August. Wiggles dont bother me, as Im not a day trader.
ReplyDeleteWhat will you do if this turns out to me an intermediate bottom and the market goes on to make new highs?
ReplyDeleteThat's the problem with trying to trade a bear market before confirmation, one can never be sure the bear market has actually started.
Remember we don't have one single confirmation yet.
Driver,
ReplyDeleteThe Fed’s continuing purchases of treasuries is not considered QE3. It is just them continuing to reinvest the proceeds of maturing treasuries and MBS securities, and does not represent additional capital or an expansion of their balance sheet.
The Fed purchased about $1.2 trillion in treasuries and MBS securities during QE and about $600B in treasuries under QE2, so they expanded their balance sheet by about $1.8T. Now over time, this $1.8T portfolio of securities would be self-liquidating as the securities mature or the securitized mortgages in the MBS are prepaid or defaulted on. Instead, however, the Fed is taking the proceeds from these maturing securities and rolling it into the purchase of new treasuries. This way, they are maintaining the size of their balance sheet at its existing level and not allowing liquidity to drain from the system.
It’s the same as if you had purchased a treasury bond for $1000where you would receive a coupon payment over the life of the bond and then a return of your $1000 principal at the end. Instead of taking your $1000 principal back at the end, however, you decide instead to roll it over into the purchase of another $1000 bond.
I know what a lot of you are thinking you short the market, increase your capital, double it if you're leveraged, and then you have more to invest when the A-wave it comes.
ReplyDeleteBut what if you are wrong and all you do is half your capital?
I strongly urge everyone to just play it safe and get to the bottom of the intermediate correction with all of your capital intact.
Hi Gary.
ReplyDeleteMy question is why the Nasdaq and Russell don't count as confirmation. They both breached their March lows. What makes the SPX more important?
Thanks.
Gary, if the market turns around and makes higher highs, Im out, anything over the 50DMA, and Im fully out.
ReplyDeleteAgain, its a risk trade, which is not suitable for all.
Everyone is responsible for their own trade.
quick GLD Gold 20Min Channel Chart :
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/K0v5zUhSi
gary,
ReplyDeleteSPY is on top list SOS with -166,16.Do you consider this considerable as import?
thk so much
Daniele,
ReplyDeleteIt will be if it lasts till the end of the day.
gough
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome, I'm a futures trader and I'm holding a short position for a swing trade on Gold futures.
It's my pleasure to be here.
Sharing it helps me to trade cleaner and with discipline.
Gold 30min http://bit.ly/mRhHQN is quite interesting how prices are "reacting to 1505 area
ReplyDeleteDollar just did 74.99....
ReplyDelete"That's the problem with trying to trade a bear market before confirmation, one can never be sure the bear market has actually started.
ReplyDeleteRemember we don't have one single confirmation yet."
Gary, nice to see a softening on the bearish rhetoric. Inexperienced traders on your blog need to hear this kind of advice, regardless of what the news, fundamentals, etc. may say.
The market is strong, buyers are coming back into the market snapping up the bargains to be had.
ReplyDeleteGary,what about two cycles in Gold until the bottom,instead of one?
ReplyDeleteLooks like corection is going very slow.Is that the way D wave unfold?
Torreo,
ReplyDeleteI still think we've begun the third leg down in the secular bear market but I have been saying for several weeks now to just leave the market alone.
We made a little money on our short and that's good enough. Now we just need to get to the bottom of the gold intermediate correction and put that money to work.
DG,
ReplyDeleteRegarding EUO, are you in as heavy as you were a couple of weeks ago or just in lightly? I was thinking of getting back into EUO myself, I'm assuming you bought some back this morning?
Hack,
ReplyDeleteAnything is possible. We just have to play this as it unfolds.
Keep in mind we tend to get counter trend rallies in the lead up to long weekends while all the big traders are leaving town for the holidays. The bear is likely to resume early next week.
ReplyDeleteLight volume should be the tell as Gary pointed out in yesterdays report.
Gary,
ReplyDeletePlease see my question above.
Thanks.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteAre you still expecting the gold intermediate correction to complete sometime in August? If I heard you correctly on the interview, you expected it to drop down to 1350 to 1400. We still have a way to go to reach that. Is your warning on the general stock market?
You can always tell whether the market is goig up or down just by the tone of people here and the actual individuals that post.
ReplyDeleteat ease,
ReplyDeleteThat was my best guess I just have to play it in real time and try and spot the bottom when it comes.
Peter,
ReplyDeleteThe S&P is the best representation of the overall market.
Thanks Gary,
ReplyDeleteI have some puts on GLD and SLV that are profitable now, however going away for holiday weekend 3-8th coming up, so wanted to hold while away figuring I still have time.
Attention at ease, DG is standing by with electrodes hooked up to Gary. Whenever that CIC guy asks Gary what he thinks, DG points his finger and threatens to hit the shock button.
ReplyDeleteIf TA indicators are the rearview mirror, then cycles must be stoping at the senic outlook restarea on top of each mountain and looking back to the previous mountain top with binoculars or a telescope.
Mind you, I wouldn't want to drive without a rearview mirror. Probably required equipment.
haveaniceday,
ReplyDeleteI trust Gary's judgement/guesstimates on the PMs. As long as I leave myself some leeway, no worries.
Actually what cycles do is give one an expected timing band for a correction, either short term as in a daily cycle, or a much larger degree intermediate term.
ReplyDeleteCycles are like looking out the windshield whereas charting is projecting the past into the future.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIf the bear in stocks takes its time, max loss for bull and bear alike, will this affect our decision to re-enter gold timewise?
I think the market will probably stretch as far as possible. Would your cycles be consistant with a possible A-Wave purchase this early fall, instead of the next couple months.
Bascially I think this thing will not end hard and fast. Slow and grind a lot longer than expceted(I am guessing this one). I have decided to put two dollars in the lottery each week instead of the market; figure my losses will be minimal this way.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteLike the chicken or egg dilema, what came first the cycle or the moving average?
Cycles provide you a pretty reliable expected time frame. Can't ask for more than that.
ReplyDeleteCycles seems more like driving in the woods when it's a little foggy. You see a road go by, you know you might need to take it, but you go a little further because it didn't look right. A mile later you come to an old landslide and so you go back, and now the road definitely looks like the right one to take after all. Some of the roads look pretty good when you encounter them, and so you confidently make the turn; others, not so and you wander around using up precious gas or even have to stop and put some money into repairs.
ReplyDeleteBeats not looking out of the windshield, though.
keys,
ReplyDeleteI'm just going to play this as a "normal" intermediate cycle for gold. Which means we should have a bottom at the end of this current daily cycle.
That doesn't mean that the cycle can't stretch, it's just that I don't know how to guess that ahead of time, so in real time I treat it as a normal cycle unless proven otherwise.
at ease, that's my precise thought about Fib numbers... if everybody watches them and acts on them, it makes them come true, and if they don't stick, they watch the next one and even more people try to make it come true.
ReplyDeleteKind of like Hubble? With every upgrade we were able to see further away, until we reached the limit of visual light projections, due to the speed of light traveling from the dawn of creation, etc.
ReplyDeleteYes from the top of a mountain, you can theoretically look ahead as far as the highest peak but not beyond.
I tend to think of it as driving down the highway and knowing that a huge pothole is coming. When I get to the mile marker with the pothole I start to slow down. Once I passed the pothole I can stomp on the gas again.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis rally is a perfect opportunity for the active fund managers to sell into strength, book month end profits and re-shuffle their deck. Energy and tech stocks are in the buy zone...
ReplyDeleteI'd agree with that, Gary. The stuff one looks out for varies up to the 8-year cycle, so one does have a very good idea of when to go faster and more boldly and when to go slower to keep from blowing out all the tires.
ReplyDeleteSorry Gary, I did not mean pipe dream.
ReplyDeleteBen,
Are you saying,
"If your TA gets obsscure enough noone will be trading based on it, so it will have no effective value or even affective value.
It always happens this way, but it never happens the same way. History ... rhymes.
The highway needs paved every 8 years, and they never get around to it until someone gets killed on a pothole.
ReplyDeleteNot a charting expert by any stretch - but would the SPX consolidating action between the 150 and 200 DMA qualify as a bearish flag?
ReplyDeleteHAND (have a nice day) -- I'm not saying anything about TA in particular, just that some things people chart can be self fulfilling. Or not... just something I ponder. Like the S&P bouncing off the 200 sma twice recently, and how so many people (bigger than me) were waiting with buy orders at that exact spot so of course it bounced. But for how long?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWhat if you play this as a "normal intermediate cycle" and when you stomp on the gas long we fall off a cliff into a D-wave???
William,
ReplyDeleteThat's where "the plan" I talked about several days ago comes in.
Same thing with $Gold hitting a new high or 1550. Everyone is lined up with their shorts galore. Will it work next time, or will it finally shoot through to near 1600, or has the hangover from the last attempt taken it down so far that the bulls will just let it spiral down?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, the plan, I forgot about you telling me about that.
Ryan: I bought back some, but have less than originally. I sold 1/4 at 17.59 and 1/4 at 17.45. Bought back on of them this morning at 17.05. It's a dangerous short because of all the gov''t interference, as gary has said.
ReplyDeleteHaveANice Day---huh?
Wm, you never know where the next pothole is. It can be this intermediate cycle or the next, etc. Eventually, after you start getting into the next IT cycle timeframe, you have to LOOK BACK and mark the last low as the IT bottom/completion.
ReplyDeleteDG, cheers.
ReplyDeleteDG, thanks I guess I'm just getting a bit itchy fingered. I should just take Gary's advice and sit in cash and wait.
ReplyDeletehaveaniceday,
ReplyDeleteUnderstood, thanks.
Bonds might be signaling caution to equity/commodity shorts. TLT selling off pretty strong today, following through on yesterday's weakness and trading below June support.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteDo you view A,B,C,D waves as cycles, in other words...the way cycles stretch and correct, is it not the same with waves?
GC:Now I would like a close under 1490 please!!!
ReplyDelete'Squeezy' Action
ReplyDeleteWilliam,
ReplyDeleteNo the ABCD pattern has nothing to do with cycles other than major troughs will occur at intermediate cycle bottoms.
There can be many intermediate cycles in a C wave for instance.
Wm, stretch is a cycle analysis term. The corresponding EW term is extend (or something like that...)
ReplyDeleteCycles stretch.
EW waves extend.
Waves can get very extended.
Incidentially, I think a lot of EW guys are currently dumbfounded still with a glimmer of hope for retest of SPX highs. The weekly chart is the simple way of seeing the same thing. As Gary would say, SPX appears ready to breach an IT low or whatever...
Sort of the same ideas with different semantics/terminology, kind of anyways.
Vale,
ReplyDeleteYour almost certainly not getting a close below 1490 today, probably by friday.
so if this is a D wave there might be many intermediate cycles in it. which means this upcoming intermediate bottom (late july) might only be one in a larger D wave down?
ReplyDeletewould it then be smart to only put a portion of our capital to work at this upcoming intermediate bottom?
thanks
haveaniceday,
ReplyDeleteyeah I see that, I was just confirming. Thanks :)
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI was just wondering if we can apply cycle theory to A,B,C,D waves, because intermediate cycles are in all actuallity just smaller waves within big waves.
Gary ...... HELP !!
ReplyDeletethe MACD on miners: GDX GDXJ SIL, looks like its printing a positive divergence
Talk me out of buying now, please!
This must be the sucking back in phase of the cycle?
Mitchell,
ReplyDeleteThats what im seeing.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteThats hilarious...my ribs are cracking....lol
Gary help the man!
Mitchell,
ReplyDeleteOnly an eight year cycle low should have multiple intermediate cycles. But I do have a plan in case the intermediate bottom is tricky to spot.
Bruce,
ReplyDeleteIt is a bull market. Even if this isn't the bottom the bull will correct your timing mistake.
I prefer to wait for gold to bottom before taking positions because one risks getting caught in a counter trend rally.
"No the ABCD pattern has nothing to do with cycles other than major troughs will occur at intermediate cycle bottoms.
ReplyDeleteThere can be many intermediate cycles in a C wave for instance."
I take it investing long in gold during a D or B wave is not a smart thing to do no matter what degree the correction, as they would mostly offer lower lows for daily and intermediate cycle troughs?
William ,
ReplyDeletepossible, but "IF" GC is in a IT bear mode surprise are on the south side.
anyone see that volume on gdx, 3min chart.
ReplyDeleteBuying into D or B-wave declines is exactly what one wants to do.
ReplyDeleteEven if you don't time it perfectly the D wave decline is the single best buying opportunity we will get for the rest of this bull market.
Every intermediate cycle of this C-wave clearly had two bounces before bottoming on the 150SMA, one off the 75SMA (like we are seeing today)and then again off the 100SMA.
ReplyDeleteI'll be happy with gold finishing at or below 1500$ today.
ReplyDeleteToday is a perfect example of why most people should listen to Gary, and ignore my trades :)
ReplyDeleteCool Loser,
ReplyDeleteYou want to try and catch the D-wave and B-Wave bottoms to invest long for the ride up.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteExactly referring to buying a D or B wave bottom. What I meant was buying long at the front end of a D or B wave, especially if they last more than a few months. Looking forward to reading about your D wave indicator later on.
William,
ReplyDeleteI got you bigtime. What I was referring to exactly was trying to play the daily cycle troughs long while in a D or B wave, especially if they last several months.
Cool Loser,
ReplyDeleteI hear you, but timing that will get you slaughtered almost certainly...your better off entering as close to the bottom as possible and weather the draw downs on the way up. Holding fast through the whole wave (entry as close to the bottom, exit as close to the top) is how the most money will be made for sure.
I'm with you William. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteCool loser,
ReplyDeleteIf you plan on playing it that way, I would say, and I know Gary would disagree, add to your initial short position on bounces during the way down.
Pathetic volume on SLV and GLD today, I doubt SLV will crack 20 million shares.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWould you agree that the market is only rallying today in anticipation of a good outcome in Greece tomorrow, then its back to business to the downside?
Don't anticipate any good news on Greece.
ReplyDeleteunless we get a dramsatic turnaround here, i will be stopped out of my TWM position with a 1% loss to my portfolio. I'm considering letting it ride over night with the Geek decision on the way as I believe this will be a sell the news event..after all, what does an austerity measure really do for Greece? It leads to an extensive deflationary depression. WHat does it do for the EU? It puts them on the hook for more bailout moneys to save Greece, then Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Ireland etc.
ReplyDeleteThe rise in the Euro over the past few days is speculative money betting on the Parliament voting for austerity. Once they do, what reason is there for the Euro to rise? None that I can think of. When the Euro stops rising, the dollar will, and the markets will resumre their downward trajectory.
I'll likely honor the stop in TWM as its bad practice to ignore stops.
I'll be adding to my EUO on a swing low reversal in the dollar.
fc
f
I dont understand how these birds by my house crap right on my windows, they fly into the window sometimes and scare the crap out of me, so I am assuming that sometimes they see the window last second and say "oh SH#@" get the crap scared out of themself and crap on my window!
ReplyDeleteI don`t know guys, try this;
ReplyDeleteI pulled spy fibo from March low to May hi; I`m showing 61.8% @129.86.
Then $NYMO, connect tops from March though June. Should these two be pulling into town about the same time? Or is it just another one of those deals where 75 cents will get you a cup of coffee any where in town?
fb,
ReplyDeleteWell thought out line of logic. Thanks for sharing, it'll help me sit tight. A
Wm, $SPX is due to rally back to top of falling trendline from a technical prespective.
ReplyDeleteBirds get the crap knocked out of them when they try to fly through a closed window. I soap my windows outside with detergent so the birds can see them better and don't think they can fly through, or close the curtains.
Willianm- Good observation on the 75DMA and then 100DMA causing gold price declines to pause during intermediate cycle lows. I'm not from Missouri, but I did have to be shown...so attached is the chat I created to test it. With the exception of the last Int Cycle low it's on the money.
ReplyDeletehttp://tinypic.com/r/iz5h1e/7
Here's a closer view of just the last 4 Int lows...you can see it more clearly here..
http://tinypic.com/r/6sv2o4/7
Fubsy,
ReplyDeleteThat seems like the real deal. Thanks.
William,
ReplyDeleteThanks for that "laugh out loud" story about the birds. Hysterical!
Anyone adding to DUG on this pullback?
ReplyDeletehaveaniceday,
ReplyDeleteyeah, I got no curtains thats why they keep flying.
TJ,
ReplyDeletesecond link is blank like my mind.
William,
ReplyDeleteKudos for renovating your place on 3/4 limbpower. Sometimes I need a fifth.
William,
ReplyDeleteWhat if you just opened the window and let them fly through? Maybe you could even charge them a toll. Sort of like selling covered calls...
haveaniceday,
ReplyDeleteBut who needs detergent or curtains when ya got bird crap all over ya window, you would think they would see that and get tired of flying into their own crap!!
86,
ReplyDeleteLOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL, im gonna try that, then when they are in im going to close the window and tell them "now you cant leave" and shoot them dead! Im going crap shooting.
TJ,
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting that chart.
I am betting on Godzilla versus King Kong...The bulls vs. the bears, in an all and out blood bath of MMA action. At this point I only want to be a spectator, far away, with binoculars....the stories Euro VS Greenback...the battle to see which currency is the shittiest. People aren't thinking cycles...the USD has been so hammered, I wouldn't be surprised if the battle is long and hard...one where spectators keep changing sides...either way I expect extreme volatility...but this for the dramatic...I wouldn't be surprised if we just go in circles for a couple months, like silver has been doing, waiting for both sides to tire out. Of course I could be wrong, but a bear making new highs, would be a very hard platform to work with.
ReplyDeleteYes, keeping the crap on the window is an alternative that works, but I did not mention it. I would never consider it. Maybe draw an "X" across the window with a bar of soap. Better wash those windows or we will start calling you a crappy trader or crappy insights. Get a scarecrow. Post your pic in the window with scotch tape.
ReplyDeleteMy dad and the neighbor did that one time with ducks in the neighbors porch. Those great big fat winter mallards. I think they wound up with 14 ducks. My neighbor cleaned the porch and my folks cleaned the ducks and I think my folks got done first. I guess when my neighbor snuck around the house and closed the porch door, it got REALLY radical. The ducks got Margin called for real! LOL!
ReplyDeleteMr M,
ReplyDeleteI made a video yesterday to win a $50K kitchen makeover, i will know thursday if I win. My wife forced me to do it, I dont like handouts or legouts :), but she keeps trying to convince me I cant do everything alone, now that I am almost finished with the whole damn house!!!
One comment on currencies was none are especailly strong or weak. They will trade in normal ranges, except a currency in trouble like the EURO.
ReplyDeleteWilliam, Good luck on the video and I hope you win! It's not a hand out, if you did something for it. I wanted to buy a dining room set from a particular store. The saleswoman told me they were running a contest and the prize was the exact table set and chairs I wanted. All that was required was to write a short essay on decorating and she said they never get a lot of entries, so was worth a try. I wrote it and had my DIL edit it and won! I wish you the same luck!
ReplyDelete86,
ReplyDeleteThey were dropping bombs in my pool one year like a re-enactment of pearl harbor, it was crazy, I dont know what caused the all out attack that year, but I sat outside with my paint gun and unloaded on them like a maniac, shot up their trees and all! Could you believe it actually worked, they stopped. I dont want to do it out my windows my neighbors will really think im sick in the head then.
Keys,
ReplyDeleteYour scenario sounds just like last year before the flash crash.
at ease,
ReplyDeleteIm happy you won, thanks for wishing me luck. I will let you know if I win.
My history is a little fuzzy but I think it was William the Great, followed by William the conqueror and now SMT has it`s own William the Insane. Glad you showed up brother, it was getting a little quiet here by myself..........
ReplyDelete86/William,
ReplyDeleteWe had two big old cherry trees near the driveway. Damn birds would sit in one and eat and sit in the tree that hung over the driveway and crap all over the cars. We cut the branches hanging over driveway, but they still were hitting the cars. Finally, just cut down both the trees as they were old and not really healthy looking anyhow. No more problems, cars stay much cleaner now. :)
86,
ReplyDeleteLOL..quiet?? Yesterday, Edwin was saying that he wishes Dan was standing in front of him so he could knock his teeth out, just for telling him he should go to a numismatic forum because he said he is in PM's for life!
William,
ReplyDeleteTry hanging a wooden windchime or a couple of stramers near the windows.
William,
ReplyDeleteI'm hoping this next A wave is really good to you so you can possibly pay for an exterminator to treat the bird problems. Somehow I doubt paintballs are a long term solution.
at ease,
ReplyDeleteYou gotta see the tree I had cut down in my yard, it cost me $1800, this tree was like 100 ft. tall and 100 Years old with like 100 crazy crapping dive bombers in it.
Fergie,
ReplyDeleteBelieve it or not it really was a long term solution, to the pool problem that is...if I shot at you with a machine gun I dont think you would be back for more would ya?? LOL
Mr.Miyagi,
ReplyDeleteMaybe we get another chance at NFLX. This time it might be from 300$ though?
Ironically this is one of my favorite personal companies as i use there service daily.
Fergie,
ReplyDeleteTrue, but look at the money he saves on cable because his entertainment is imported.
William,
ReplyDeleteAlright save the money on the exterminator and use it for the court ordered psychologist.. : )
Fergie,
ReplyDeleteThats a paintball machine gun!
I gotta export these birds.
ReplyDeleteaklaunch
ReplyDeleteNFLX is nuts. It is one of the stocks that might get hit hardest in a downturn because of its overvaluation.
I ain't touchin' it!
William the Insane,
ReplyDeleteYou must have quite a colorful yard!
Massive buying volume at the close. So much for the bears, they had their chance and failed.
ReplyDeletePeople getting tear gassed in Greece now, so the market starts to rally, what the hell is this world coming to.
ReplyDeleteTear gas, thats a good idea for the birds!
William, that just goes to show that even if cars are parked, they can contribute to an increase in atmospheric carbon... :-)
ReplyDeleteToo funny! Thanks for the humor at your expense. I completely missed the close, but not playing the bounce anyways.
ReplyDeleteat ease,
ReplyDeleteActually I do, I got alot of beautiful big rose bushes.
oops, I mean At Ease (who cut down the trees to keep his cars clean)
ReplyDeleteBen,
ReplyDeleteAre you talking about the birds or the Greeks? lol
Laughing so hard it hurts! Do you believe we get paid to do this? Who says there`s no justice!!!
ReplyDeleteMarket hit resistance at the 150SMA
ReplyDeleteHack,
ReplyDeleteMild selling on strength numbers today. Again I would warn against trying to chart this market.
These kind of volatile swings back and forth are how bull markets top. They chew up bulls and bears alike.
William the Insane,
ReplyDeleteI love roses, especially my dozens of pink rose bushes all around my house and up my driveway. They are just gorgeous with my blue Hydrangeas all around my yard in VA. It's just killing me I can't carry back or import some of these beautiful English roses back to the states from London. I have tried to find nuseries in the states that carry them, no luck.
Short the world; here come the Greeks. William; hit `em with the paintball gun, maybe they`ll drop their gyros and baklava!!
ReplyDeleteBIRD just hit resistance at my window!
ReplyDeleteDirty rotten scoundrel, sorry bird lovers!
At ease,
ReplyDeleteTry Heirloom Roses in Oregon. Just google the name and you'll find them. I'd be surprised if they didn't have what you were looking for.
Ben, Had a neighbors cousin take em down (who was in the business) and donated the wood to a neighbor who makes wooden bowls and such. He in turn gave us back a beautiful wood bowl and pepper shaker made from the tree.
ReplyDelete86,
ReplyDeleteYou crazy, they will stone me with gyros and baklava!
at ease,
ReplyDeleteSpring Hill Nurseries. google them, I would be suprised if they didnt have what you want.
At Ease, sounds like a good trade to me!
ReplyDeleteThanks Fergie, I will check them out! I hope I can find some of them.
ReplyDeleteThey have some beautiful roses over here in London. My husband thinks I am nuts as I take a lot of photos of the rose bushes in peoples yards and the flower box and container combinations they do in downtown London.
My hope is to make enough money in the markets, so once we finally settle down, I can get back to painting. Meanwhile, I take lots of photos of the sights I see (and florals) wherever I go in Europe.
So many old things over here, that are old and have so much character.
Is that what`s called sweet sorrow?
ReplyDeleteAnybody know when the greek debacle announcement is to be made or just watch CNN for an increase in Molotov cocktails?
Thought I'd share the USD chart as I see it right now. Head and shoulders pattern developing on the hourly chart.
ReplyDeleteThis chart includes the action in Asia/Europe market hours as well.
Target for the USD Sept Futures is about 74.50...
2011-06-28 USD (60 Min)
My wife and I are thumbless when it comes to greenery; planted herbs, they all died. Planted tomatoes, struggling (with 20 hours of sunshine per day). Lawn, dry and dull, assorted plants, in various stages of mortality.
ReplyDeleteWe love nature but can't grow it.
86,
ReplyDeleteI think 7 Am Eastern, But you wont be able to see anything on CNN because of the tear gas, they like to get right up in the action...didnt Anderson Cooper get punched in the mouth like 3-4 times recently somewhere?
My wife just gave me a plate of samon and I thought it was a piece of french toast, thats what it looked like. I got Europe on the mind.
Mr M,
ReplyDeleteTry water, it works buddy.
WTI,
ReplyDeleteWater also drowns them, apparently...
If the ES trades above 1294 tomorrow during regular trading hours, I will add to my longs. Stop would be around 1270 on the ES.
ReplyDeleteI think there is a very decent change we are going to 1450.
W-I,
ReplyDeleteI thought that was Dan that took it in the puss a few times! Are you sure that wasn`t napalmed greek salmon?
Mr, M
ReplyDeleteDont over water them!
David,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you feel could propel the market that much higher? No matter how I try, I just can`t see what it could be. Thanks.
86,
ReplyDeletelol..Dan got lucky, he had a place to hide. I never tried greek salmon, is it good, probably stinks?
David,
ReplyDeleteYou must be Greek, am I right?
Mr M,
ReplyDeleteCheck this one out; the Big Book of Gardening Skills. No author, just from the editors of garden way publishing. Honestly, this is a really great book. It`s the whole enchilada on gardening.
86,
ReplyDeleteI'll see if the library has it.
Willy,
ReplyDeleteyeah, kind of an onion/green pepper smell. They also have dark hair and a bad attitude!
Mr M,
ReplyDeleteI just found one on Amazon(paperback)new, for $4.49.
86,
ReplyDeleteLOL... I thought that was my wife's hair, it must have been greek salmon then!!
86,
ReplyDeleteYour question is your answer.
If making money in financial markets were as easy as looking at the fundamentals, or as Seykota calls it "funnymentals", than nobody would lose. Right now even my son´s nanny knows the world is in a mess and the US economy is in a bad situation, so I can garantee you that that information is useless.
David,
ReplyDeleteUnderstood, but as I remember you used to post here somewhat frequently and I also remember you were one to listen too. I`m saying you didn`t just pick 1450 out of thin air; that`s a big number.
In my opinion the only way the market can go higher is if the dollar heads back down. One would have to assume that May was not the three year cycle low for that to play out.
ReplyDeleteWI,
ReplyDeleteYou are just Touched man!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFergie, Thanks for the link, I found a few of the DA English roses I was looking for. I have to find my list to see if they have any of the others that aren't the DA english roses. Thank you again! :)
ReplyDeletePeter,
ReplyDeleteConcerning your question why SP500 is more important than Nasdaq and DOW -- 75% of stocks are correlated to SP500.
The 1450 is a rough guess based on a few things...
ReplyDelete1- Markets like to marginally break obvious support and resistance pivots before reversing. There is an obvious pivot from May 2008 at around 1437.
2- If we trade above the trading range that we are in since the beginning of the year (1250-1370), using a P&F count the projection would be around 1450 as well.
No problem. I've been to their gardens many times and know that they travel to the UK almost as much I have. They have the largest collection that I've ever seen. . .worldwide.
ReplyDeleteThe past 20 days the market has been trading in a range, rotating up and down in bigger and bigger swings. This is the condition we need for a big trend to begin. Big trends begin when most market participants get tired of being thrown around and whipsawed to death and thus become reluctant to take the next signal. They are the ones who will fuel the upcoming trend.
ReplyDeleteSo my plan is to add to my longs tomorrow above 1294 (ES), and if the market trades back into the trading range and goes below 1270 or so, I will stop out and reverse to the short side.
Agree Gary.
ReplyDeleteOne scenario would be a worsening of the macro environment (beyond what regional manufacturing/employment has shown) and a resumption of fed easing in some capacity come Aug/Sep. I would expect only the fed could push the 3yr cycle out?
I still see us needing to find a decent (correction) IT cycle low in Aug to support such a large move to say 1,450. But on the flip side another big move higher within the next IT cycle should come with 1,250 holding support.
We also also plenty of time left in the 4 yr cycle to support another IT cycle higher.
Time will tell, this current IT cycle will reveal much of what is too come, IMO.
Fergie,
ReplyDeleteDo you come to the UK for work or vacation? I will be here at least til Sept, if you hit the London area, would love to meet up with you.
David & Poly,
ReplyDeleteThank you both for your input. I`m leaning for the drop personally, looking at the drop we have had so far, and David, while your points are good, I just can`t see it another way. The Fed NEEDS to have the wheels come off before they can start printing again and that,I feel, is one of the main objectives. Thanks again.
At ease,
ReplyDeleteI try to schedule either Chelsea (May) or Hampton Court (June) Garden Shows, but two trips to Europe already this year and I'm avoiding long hauls 'til the holidays. Too bad you have to leave. UK is a great place.
.
ReplyDeleteDon't leave the market alone. This is the time to get in for the ride to Dow 36,000.
ReplyDeleteNew Cisco's and Intel's will be formed in mobile computing and green energy.
Actually, a strong dollar is good for the US economy and good for America.
ReplyDeleteSomehow it got bastardized the last couple of years where strong dollar went with falling stock market. However, things are about to change from this point on.
Beanie,
ReplyDeleteIt's pretty hard to take you seriously. You only show up on the days the market rallies and then you disappear for months during declines.
Why would anyone want to invest in the stock market and maybe make 5 to 10% in 4 to 5 months if they were lucky and assuming this isn't a new bear market?
ReplyDeleteThey could instead just wait for gold to finish its intermediate decline and make 10% or more in three or four days in mining stocks.