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Thursday, June 16, 2011

portfolio change

A portfolio change is been posted to the website.

526 comments:

  1. Now who as the balls to go long this counter trend rally? I sure as hell don't.

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  2. Neither do I, which probably means I should take a small long position.

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  3. Nice timing Gary,
    Long ES now, I want part of the bounce

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  4. SPX could not touch 1257/1256 which marks its 200-day sma, unchanged for the year and its March/2011 close low.
    spx

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  5. In bear markets the correct strategy is to sell rallies not buy the dips.

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  6. Exactly Gary, why resist the trend boys and girls?

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  7. a common buy market based on VIX system
    vix

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  8. I just covered my SPY short and sold 1/2 my DUG, then went here only to find you covered as well. Everyone is looking at 1250, so maybe we don't get there so easily. Still short euro, EEM, USO, some DUG, and SLV so if we crack big I'll be all smiles. Tricky weekend coming up with the EU meeting, tag of the 200 DMA, and loots of bears.

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  9. So sell my SH and PSQ? Just making sure.

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  10. mdsn. Just my opinion, but you are playing with fire going long here. The proverbial picking up nickels in front of a steamroller. You may win a little but the risk is to get flattened.

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  11. Gary,

    I know we are very oversold in the stock market but if the dollar is set to rally for another week or two can stocks fight a strong dollar?

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  12. Gary, what do you think of this gold:xau ratio? Think it will exceed the previous 2008 high of around 11?

    I can't easily see historical data for it, what was the ratio's highest ever since the bull began, anyone know?

    Gold/XAU

    (go to weekly view, it's better and in candlestick form)

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  13. Blogger Gary said...

    Greg,

    The dollar has rallied very strongly the last couple of days. It wouldn't be unusual to see a minor bear flag form before a final push to the 200 day moving average.

    That would allow the market to rally briefly. I do think we will probably marginally break 1250 before the real countertrend rally begins, I'm just not willing to hold short positions on that assumption. It's safer to cover now and then wait until the countertrend rally materializes.

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  14. Gary and DG,
    Of course you are right...then again it was a pretty low risk 5 point scalp in my opinion.
    I am now out and flat

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  15. interested to hear about the dollar and PM's in this stock bounce, what should happen to them?
    could it be dollar up, stocks up, PM's up at the same time, or finally the start of faster decline for PM's if their safe haven appeal fades?
    Long dollar, short silver here...

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  16. Stocks and gold can do anything in relationship with the dollar, as you should know there is no perfect science, otherwise we'd all be billionaires. Easily we could see a counter trend rally with the dollar going sideways or even up. It is not historically likely, but never put anything out of the question.

    Look at gold, the dollar has shot up what 5-6% since its 72.xx low and gold's still only a little over 2% off it's highs, and there's much better examples than this I assure you.

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  17. I've eaten silver,

    I doubt the gold XAU ratio will exceed the 08 high this time.

    More likely gold will start to drop aggressively into its intermediate cycle low and the ratio will either stabilize or actually start to drop marginally as gold starts to catch up to the miners.

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  18. VIX more than 10% above it's 10dma is one buy the market signal in the market timing system developed by Larry Connors.. known as Connors Vix Reversals.
    ...always would like a gap down off these and buy the morning low

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  19. On an immediate front, with this powerful bounce we don't see much money flowing into PMs, but things could change in 5 seconds. :)

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  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  21. I suspect that the current strength in gold was due to an erroneous assumption that gold was a safe haven protection from the current European banking crisis.

    Once the stock market starts to enter its countertrend move traders are going to assume the European situation has been corrected and the gold safe haven trade should come off, leading to gold moving down aggressively into its intermediate cycle low.

    In the 7+ years that I have watched gold I have yet to see it not move down into an intermediate cycle low respectively of whether the dollar was rallying or declining. I expect this time will be no different.

    The market will always find a reason to follow the cycles.

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  22. Sold 1/4 of my EUO at 17.60 (felt like throwing a child out of the house). I will get that back and more next week almost regardless of what happens.

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  23. Gary,

    Do you expect miners to rally with stocks during this bounce?

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  24. The Greece situation might really make a mess of this intermediate gold cycle.
    But reading from all your thoughts being long dollar and short silver isn't the worst idea since shorting stocks for now is a high risk...
    And I'm in the Euro area so I need a hedge against euro depreciation.

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  25. Brilliant call, Gary. My gut was telling me to cover and your announcement confirmed it. Sold my SDS, TZA and EUO before the market turned, all for a very nice profit. Plus, what a relief to go into the weekend with no worries. Strong call, and perfect timing. Bravo!

    Many thanks for the new charts and summary also. It's like a treasure map.

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  26. DG, I really liked your posts on shorting and how to add on weak bounces etc...as I'm a terrible short I still am just sitting in cash though

    As I was thinking about why I wasn't able to pull the trigger in June 2nd I realized it was due to position sizing

    Greed was telling me to go all in but fear of a drawdown on a 100% position kept me out

    May I ask what % of trading capital do you use when you initiate a position like your EUO trade?

    And what % allocation do you add at the next opportunity?

    Many thanks

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  27. I bet gold/silver get crushed hard next week. I'm thoroughly looking forward to it.

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  28. Indecision candles GLD, SLV ? - lovely proportions, perfect suspension, delicate - yet hardly yielding to either suitor...

    SPX looks the same, actually, all in suspended animation today

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  29. Ollie: My situation is odd so my %ages wont help you. I am 55, have no debt, no kids, own my own business, rent, and all my assets are in cash. My % should have no bearing on yours unless you match all those conditions. If you fight both greed and fear and pick a middle ground you will come out fine. Never do 100% on the first order. Do some and see if the mkt goes your way. Then add small pieces until you get excited at how smart you are or how much money you have made. Then sell 1/2.

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  30. Felix, that stuff about the indecision candles sounds almost erotic

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  31. Thanks DG, will work on incorporating position sizing into my trading strategy. BTW 3 out of the 6 conditions are the same :-) No debt, renting, 100% of my assets are in cash

    That's actually the main reason why I badly need to think about position sizing as it's quite scary for me to trade with most of my life savings...

    But I just can't let it lose most of its purchasing power due to Fed policies

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  32. UUP USD DOLLAR ETF Hit Resistance here on the Daily Chart<

    Could mean Markets ( Dow / SP-500 ) Pops

    http://screencast.com/t/ovIwvZr1H

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  33. Ollie, I'm in the same boat. To help me with position sizing (and I'm not suggesting anyone follow my lead - wtf do I know?), over the last few years, I converted 3 years of expenses into physical AU, saved up enough cash to handle 2 years of emergency expenses, then split that between cash I keep in a safe deposit box and cash that's in a "high yield" savings account.

    I put the rest of the money (about 2/3rds) into my brokerage account, but rarely have more than 65% of that invested in anything (and rarely have more than 25% on any pone trade. So, even if I blow up my trading account and have to sell my PMs, I should have a few years to get back on my feet and return to the plantation.

    just my approach to positioning for the future.

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  34. As we cannot short stocks/ETF in our 401k, does anyone have any suggestion on what they are doing with their plan?

    I am 100% cash now.

    Any advice will be greatly appreciated.

    Thanks

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  35. Apology if already stated, been out all day, but did you notice that we have a confirmed failed IT NASDAQ cycle in play!

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  36. re: 401k. I'm mostly cash and waiting for late summer/early fall. It truly sucks... I wish there was a way to transfer it to an IRA, but they entrap you for your own good. Ah, right...

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  37. dallascpf, my IRA is about 98% cash. I still have a small piece of PIMCO total return; not sure why.

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  38. Anyone know a liquid 1x long or 1x short of the Nasdaq?

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  39. Eamonn: I have posted the ETF site that answers that question several times. You may want to bookmark it so you can look up the ETF's you wonder about. Here it is again:

    http://www.etftips.com/

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  40. Ollie,
    If I may jump in here.
    If you are able to honestly understand how much of a loss you can tolerate with a trade..meaning all trades that line up in the same trend (if you are short S&P and QQQ, these are essentially the same position so you would take a half position in each to keep your risk within parameters described below), then position size is a matter of simple math.

    The number of shares should allow the loss if stopped out to be within your comfortable limit.

    For example, when I initiate a position I typically will risk between 1% and 5% depending on the market status. At an intermediate cycle low in a bull trend I will risk more.

    So, say I'm willing to risk 1% and my account is worth 100k. I can lose 1000.00 on a trade and it will be acceptable to my risk tolerance. So, if if my stop is
    .50 away, I can buy 2000 shares of an equity. 2000 times .5 equals 1000.00. I usually go a little light in case my stop is gapped over.

    In a trend, there is always time to add to positions and make gains substantial, but in this way, your tactic limits your risk to a manageable level.

    Obvbiously, if you're willing to risk 5% of account value you can buy 5 times as many shares.

    Hope that helps. Simple, but very few traders utilize this type of tactic as many think about how much they can gain rather than how much they can lose.

    fubsy

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  41. DG, I did look... couldn't find one

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  42. aww man. gary we're on the same team now going long.

    i've been buying the dip for the past 3 weeks now

    I would really love to see the market rocket to 1340 or so

    let see what happens over the course of a week.

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  43. i have to tend to agree about the comment of the gold silver trade as being a safe haven.

    though i'd would have love to see a 1600 number for gold for this intermediate cycle.

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  44. Poly,

    Both the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100. Maybe that's what you meant.

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  45. Eamonn,
    PSQ is a 1x short QQQ. 1.64million today.

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  46. Driver,

    No I meant what I stated, the Nasdaq.

    But if you want to use the NDX, it failed too.

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  47. Good trade for those who took it, you cant go broke by booking a profit. Im sitting tight with my trade, there was no capitulation, and a bounce here would only be used for me to add to my position.

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  48. Yesterday was a 92% down day, the third such day for the month!

    If today's bounce is all that she can show after a brutal 92% down day, then I want my full exposure to the trap door option.

    I see no point in covering for 20-30 points and miss a possible 200, these markets are rattled and anything is possible. Sure it's a major outlier, but you get some type of flash crash while leveraged short and you're talking serious, serious gains.

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  49. Poly-

    What metric are you using to track % down day? I'm sure it's fairly simple, but I do not know it.

    Thanks.

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  50. CME lowered margins on PMs, not that I think it matters as I can't imagine there's too many people out there on heavy margin.

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  51. Anyone notice Agriculture getting murdered? If this dollar rally continues (I believe it will), the deflationary wave can be brutal.

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  52. T.J,

    That metric and many other great volume/TA type stuff I check in with http://www.barchart.com

    Cheers.

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  53. 86d4life, thanks for that. I'd better make a note of it, dont want to irritate DG :oP

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  54. Poly,

    Do you have puts on a inverse leveraged ETF, or are you short a call on a leveraged ETF?

    ... need some option exposure in the coming weeks to the downside. :) It's so much more comforting...

    oh, whatever, I'm out in the middle of the ocean having the time of my life, if I come back to shore and the world has gone to hell b/c of the markets collapsing, I still be as happy as out at sea having had some nice puts :)

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  55. *correction, that would be calls on an inverse leveraged ETF

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  56. I'm just curious b/c I don't necessarily want to spend the time looking at all the leveraged ETFs for their option volumes to make sure one is acceptable. It sounded like you may already have done the hmwk, but I maybe do recall that you just had a SPY put?

    You confused me when you said you were leveraged short, are you talking over 100% short or shorting something leveraged, or just using puts (leveraged intrinsically)?

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  57. I don't buy options on leveraged ETF's, just tracking ETF's, I control the leverage via the option.

    Not sure how i feel about adding new exposure at this point, certainly not with options, unless you're talking way OTM type puts for crash exposure, with say a max 1% risk, at most.

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  58. The more I think about it I wouldn't be comfortable with buying more than just SPY puts, plus it is uber liquid.

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  59. Yeah, that's what i thought you meant, but you never know with you considering you said you paid for multiple family trips with options before on the way up with silver (not too hard to do, lol, with that tear silver had).

    That's exactly what I want OTM calls. But I'd dabble with a few levels if we see a nice bounce here soon, right now obviously is bad timing.

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  60. Anyone know/can find out what sentiment is at the moment on the US Dollar and the S&P? Thanks...

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  61. 86d4life, I saw your picture of a bear paw print. Do you have brown or black bears there? Have you ever been chased by one?

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  62. "but I maybe do recall that you just had a SPY put? "

    I use multiple strategies depending on the IT cycle, but I only trade options in the big pools, primarily SPY, love that. I've been short SPY, SLV and USO for a while now. I will at times hedge by selling weekly puts against them, but that is not often.

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  63. Thanks, Poly, for the BarChart site referral.

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  64. If tomorrow we trade above today´s high, I am taking a long position on ES. I think the odds are high that this won´t be just a 1 day rally, so I will be able to begin the trade with instant gratification, plus, I think there is a good chance that we have one more leg up on the ES, probably to 1450 or so.

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  65. http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/06/is-fed-secretly-preparing-us-for-return.html#comments

    what do you guys think of this??

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  66. 010,

    a) not much of a secret if we all know about it;

    b) not until the printing presses are ripped from the dead hands of the Fed

    Politicians will not give up the stealth tax of monetary inflation unless the gov't itself is shocked, by being overthrown or by some other incredible calamity.

    Maybe in 2015 or 2016...

    Life/economy/jobs will truly suck if the Feds feel that a return to the gold standard is their best option.

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  67. Gann,

    Its not uncommon for a falling wedge to break to the upside 3/4 the way down the channel.

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  68. GDXJ has now broken its January intermediate low.

    That now still leaves SIL to break its intermediate low.



    James

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  69. DG,

    I don't get to post during the day, but I do try to follow the blog.

    you must have mentioned this before, "when you get excited at how smart you are or how much money you have made. Then sell ".

    That's how I felt yesterday with my UUP and DUG calls.

    then it occurred to me reading something like this on the blog --- so I sold and had my most profitable day ever trading

    thank you

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  70. Eamonn,
    We only have blacks here. On very rare occaison, a grizz might wander through the western part of the state, but that`s the exception. Never been chased by one but numerous encounters. Put it this way, if they`re coming for you there`s no chase at all, it`s just over. They beat a quarter horse in a sprint. The best way I can think to describe it is shooting a Volkswagon out of a cannon. How about where your at, bears, wolves, any of that?

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  71. 86d4life, interesting what you said about bears. Probably best to carry a gun then while in bear country?
    We have nothing scary like bears here. Only thing I have to watch for are deer running in front of the car at night. They are not very smart when it comes to cars.

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  72. Hmm Maybe we will get a stronger rally then we think? Or not?

    The sentiment is really bearish and the euro might bounce a bit..

    Will probably sell some positions tomorrow morning..Not all but some..

    But also I think the mess in Europa just started and soon Portugal and Spain will be the next target..

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  73. Eamonn,
    No worries on the bears. They`re just trying to make a living like the rest of us and prefer to avoid conflict. And the deer aren`t very smart at much of anything! :)

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  74. Poly,
    In an earlier post you mentioned yesterday was a 92% down day. I have seen this reference before. Could you please explain what this number is refering too. Also, did you find this number on Barcharts? Thanks a bunch.

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  75. I see an ABCD S&P Fib upside target with D terminating at between 1277.2 (127.2) and 1280.8 (161.8). If you average the 2 it comes out to 1279. So Im thinking the best place to get short is about 1279. Does anyone else see this?

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  76. 86d4life, yes deer seem to be harmless timid sort of animals. They don't seem to react well to cars though. Sometimes they just come from nowhere and it seems like they are really trying to make an effort to get under the wheels of the car.

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  77. Eamonn,
    I notice they take great strides to get into a frying pan. :)

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  78. My dad just hit one a few days ago. It was feeding on the side of the road in a gully. It jumped up on to the road, and took out the driver side window and the windshield on the driver side. Why didnt it just keep eating? Like Eamonn said, It had to try to get under the tires ;)

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  79. 86d4life,

    How far north are you in MN?

    Isn't there a small sized wildfire that just broke out in the boundary waters? Probably some dumb kid... Also there was a 23yo that went there alone and was just reported missing the other day... don't know if you're close to those necks of the woods but curious...

    I occasionally fish near Bemidji.

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  80. 86,

    It's a measure of the downside volume on the board. 90% up or down days are extremes, euphoria and panic.

    Barchart.com shows you the up and down volume, a simple division will give u the %. Although 90% days always make the press.

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  81. Last Shadow Rider, that's just what I'm talking about. Seems they jump at the car trying to get in through the windscreen or something. Heard it many times

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  82. I've Eaten Silver, you're not insinuating that 86d4life is starting fires and abducting 23 year olds are you? *joke*

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  83. Miners or Gold ???

    Many subs have been asking Gary whether miners or gold will be better. He will have his own opinion based on the miners relative valuation vs. gold itself. The lower the valuation the better.

    Fore fundamentals on miners you must read Standard Chartered 68page report on the miners. It is found on www.zerohedge.com - date is June 14th.

    Bottom line - big miners - read GDX will be underperformers vs. gold and large juniors about to actually por gold from new mines.

    Keep an open mind when you read the report. I know I am.

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  84. Gary good luck at the tournament.

    All,
    If you look at GLD from the 4/29 high and the 5/5 low, it's kind of forming a triangle consolidation pattern which I hope breaks to the downside.
    The same spot also looks like a cup and handle formation

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  85. The HUI bottomed the same week as gold in the D-wave of '08

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  86. Starting fires with the chics in Bemidji.

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  87. Haggerty,

    We closed today below that lower trendline of the triangle, didnt it we?

    That lower trendline will now be resistance tomorrow.

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  88. Haggerty,

    BTW im looking at a gold chart, not the GLD.

    That lower trendline is sitting right on the 20sma, which is now coming to a point with the 10sma both will hopefully act as resistance tomorrow.

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  89. Gold is sitting right on first support now of a longer term lower trendline from 1/28 at 1528.90, we need a break below the 50sma now to start free falling.

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  90. I'm surprised people sold their DUG already. The move has just barely begun...imo.

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  91. Gary!

    Take a look at a weekly chart of GDM, it dropped from 1296.01 to 117.09 and then went back up to 1243.61 the next week like nothing happened???? Do you see that, or are my charts screwed up.

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  92. Anyone notice what happened last intermediate cycle at weeks 21 and 22?

    Gold bounced off the 10sma (where its sitting on now at week 20) and rallied $50 before dipping below it into the intermediate decline.

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  93. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  94. Covered my shorts at the USD 1 year resistance line as shown. Will re-short SPY when/if the dollar breaks this with strength.

    http://screencast.com/t/D8bhwzvy

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  95. Charles,

    If you draw a lower trendline we are 3/4 of the way down a falling wedge, which tends to break to the upside through the upper trendline.

    Thanks for posting that chart.

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  96. http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/06/happy-b-day-2pac-hunting- naked-in-woods.html

    Happy B-Day 2Pac; Hunting Naked in the Woods Drunk in the Dark with a Machine Gun

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  97. Good luck in your event this weeknd Gary.

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  98. Gann360, love your charts! Thanks again for sharing.

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  99. CMT, I am impressed with your long term planning. JH Newman should be impressed with your future planning strategy also.

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  100. US Markets futures show slightly lower at this hour with Asian markets trading lower.
    Mr & Mrs Miyagi are enjoying a little trip to Vancouver Island but Mr Miyagi still keeping an eye on things and you kids (shame on the rioting Vancouver hooligans).
    If QQQ goes a bit lower tomorrow I will sell my puts and buy again after a bounce.

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  101. CMT, very interesting approach, honestly i haven't thought of planning ahead in such a way

    fubsy, thanks for your comments, the max % risk method is what i'm going to put in place

    this is a great blog with lots of great traders/investors, i wish i had found it few years earlier!

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  102. CMT, very interesting approach, honestly i haven't thought of planning ahead in such a way

    fubsy, thanks for your comments, the max % risk method is what i'm going to put in place

    this is a great blog with lots of great traders/investors, i wish i had found it few years earlier!

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  103. Does anyone have an opinion on shorting Palladium?

    Palladium Futures

    It went from $160 after 2008 crash to $860 in 2011 (530% gain), it's even way above 2008 highs. It's showing weakness since February '11 high.

    Since its primarily industrial metal with heavy use linked to auto industry i assume it might get hit rather heavily.

    It seems to have 190DMA as support since 2008.

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  104. Say, I've just subscribed, so I saw "A portfolio change has been posted to the website" and I looked around and couldn't find where this was posted. I found a "Model Portfolio" link, but the page just says "New subscribers should consider..." but nothing looks "posted" there. Is there a place where portfolio changes, and stops and trade triggers, get posted?

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  105. The portfolio change was to cover shorts yesterday.

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  106. Dking,
    Gary covered shorts yesterdsay on the model portfolio, so now the portfolio is back to cash. One of the best things you ever did was show up here. Good Luck!

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  107. Wow Gary, your timimg is truely amazing!! Sure that you don't have a cristal ball somewhere under your desk?

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  108. Crazy how gold is stuck in a range no matter what everything else is doing.

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  109. gary - are you playing the short side on gold?

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  110. Nice timing on the cover, Savage man!

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  111. TGIF traders!! a trend day (ID/NR7) setup again in CL GC SI, insdie days with narrowest range in 7 sessions.... options can play a role with GLD SLV USO...since crude is starting weak, feb gap fill at 87 gets mentioned...crude oil down takes a tax off the economy, ES unfilled gap begins above 1282

    Today's Equity 10 Day PutCall Ratio (0.859) exceeded yesterdays (0.816) both readings were the highest since February of 2009. options market makers supporting the gap up

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  112. Thanks GARY for the call to cover. Great timing as usual. Best to you this week-end :)

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  113. Last night things weren't looking so good for a rally today but look at that gap up in ES! Wow this should be a monster rally. Glad to see it even though I'm flat.

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  114. Man, Gary you are something else. What timing!

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  115. I agree - thank you Gary for the call to cover shorts. Locked in some nice profits.

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  116. jh

    I'm loving your input!
    It's great to see you are staunch on your gold position. The dollar pulled up as you suggested. Here is the chart I posted yesterday showing the resistance that is stopping things so far.

    USD chart


    And here is a bigger picture to see where the lines are coming from. I've added a little twist on this one just for you. I think you'll like it ;-)

    USD big picture


    We'll it's friday night here and my week is done. Have a great weekend all!

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  117. The dollar is giving Gold every reason to jump higher today let's see what happens.

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  118. during deflationary periods are REIT's a safe bet?

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  119. I don`t know, right or wrong, I just sold my dug.

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  120. Gold has joined the party, yet again.

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  121. So when markets are down gold/silver are flat and when markets go up gold/silver go up.....

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  122. Not losing money is not boring, thanks for the Thursday post Gary.

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  123. Sold my DUG too. GLD puts taking a blow. Looks like GLD is trading over the 10 dma. I guess it has to close over that to be worried?

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  124. Yeah, hmmmm,

    hell of a nice bear flag on gld.

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  125. I`ll let this rally play out to re-enter dug. EUO down, I bet that`ll be a kick ass ride.......

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  126. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  127. These big moves (up & down) in gold the last few days have been done within a 10 minute candle.

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  128. So when does Benny tell everyone that there will be no QE3....on the 21st? Maybe that's when Gold nosedives?

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  129. Update from last weeks SILVER SLV 10 MIN Chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/x9HXkrXpKGzi

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  130. Thanks Gary for covering those shorts yesterday. I still have my SLV puts though :)

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  131. Update on Semi's Daily Chart

    Analysis was correct, it was a Bearish Backtest of Old Pivot :


    http://screencast.com/t/joMNWhSdmq3z

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  132. Gann,

    Wheres the spider in that SLV chart? ;)

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  133. Aaron,
    After today's action I think I am going to rephrase the last cycle low to the 13th.

    Gold is still forming a nice bear flag and crawling along the 50 day moving average, so I suspect by sometime next week Gold will begin the move down into the intermediate cycle low.

    Haggerty,

    Ben has already made it clear that he will not initiate QD3 at this time. I think we have to take him at his word.

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  134. here is the Updated SPY 60 Min Chart:


    http://screencast.com/t/CgJQ8k9hFk

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  135. Gary,

    with the 13th being the cycle low, that makes last cycle 27 days long, correct?

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  136. Gary,

    You suspect gold put in a top today and we are now in a left translated daily cycle?

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  137. Gary,

    You suspect gold put in a top today and we are now in a left translated daily cycle?

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  138. William,

    There is no way to know whether a top is been put in until after the fact. Cycles are mostly worthless for spotting tops.

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  139. Any reason for the gold spike today (or any recent day...)?

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  140. Dow Jones 10 Min Chart @ short Term Resistance ?

    http://screencast.com/t/NyeKY5mfVCer

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  142. Gary,

    If we close above the 10dma today, how does that play into things?

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  143. MrMiyagi,

    Maybe this, but I really don't know:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/forget-blood-diamonds-here-comes-conflict-gold

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  144. Nah, someone would have to read that. A spike like that is either rumor or unrest.

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  145. Gold is up seven dollars. Not much of a spike.

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  146. More the "verticality" of the rise than the price I was looking at but you are right, not much of a gain.

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  147. It kind of makes sense something like that would cause a blip on the screen to the upside and that`s about what happened. Then it`s back to business as usual.

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  148. Whats nerve racking is that these "blips on the screen" moved gold from 1511 to 1540 in 4 days.

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  149. William,

    Gold is currently up less that 0.5% for the week.

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  150. William, true.
    But look at that nice juicy bear flag on GLD as a result. And there`s nothing like Bear cheeseburgers on the grill. I`m going to go split some mesquite now!

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  152. going in a little edc today..see people shorting eem here...

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  153. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  154. Sold my QQQ puts earlier for a decent profit, SPY looks almost ready to re-enter already..
    AAPL, GOOG not taking part in today's small rally.

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  155. William,

    Yes we have a swing low, but that is to be expected if we have just put in a daily cycle bottom.

    Since gold is 20 weeks into its intermediate cycle this daily cycle should be left translated and move below the recent pivot at 1510.

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  156. Gary,
    You figure this S&P rally might run through Monday/Tuesday-ish?

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  157. Anyone opening any short positions today? I was eyeballing XLF if it could hit 15. It's a bit tricky now and depends on a lot on what happens on Sunday in Greece.

    I play this with puts (on SPY so far) and have been batting 1.000 so far with stair-step decline in the S&P. About 30-50% profits per quick sale.

    I don't like having less than 50% miners in my accounts so do this to hedge.

    I picked up GSS and NGD yesterday for trades. Although I might save some GSS for the future.

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  158. Frank,
    I looked ad FAS as a put (or FAZ as a call) but it has had multi day decline here and might go up a few before turning. Also not too keen on weekend holdings....

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  159. William said...
    "Anyone notice what happened last intermediate cycle at weeks 21 and 22? "

    "Gold bounced off the 10sma (where its sitting on now at week 20) and rallied $50 before dipping below it into the intermediate decline."

    Great point William.. to avoid the drawdown in SLV and GLD puts, went long GLD and SLV this morning to be Delta neutral until this breaks one way or the other...take the angst out of watching the tape... So, if we get the $50 bounce, will sell into that and hopefully ride the puts down...BTW was based on advice by Doc...

    Cheers,

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  160. Just shorted SSO, bot SPY JUL and AUG Puts.

    Check out the institutional SoS today, AMAZING! Haven't seen numbers like those for years!

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  161. eaten silver,

    SoS/BoW numbers don't have much meaning on OPEX.

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  162. I probably will sell some though or cover shorts with a nice breach of 125x again.

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  163. Rosa, you haven't been paying attention than to much of the previous OPEX expiration dates with SoS/BoW.

    Today is an outlier, completely, with the amount of SoS. It is extremely high on a historic basis, and I've never seen numbers like these when the market wants to keep going up.

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  164. Hello all, In regards to QE3, do any of you have an opinion about the views stated in this article ? ?http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-gross-warning-operation-twist-coming-2-year

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  165. I do give them less value with expiration, but they are still IMO more than noteworthy.

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  166. Today is a triple witching OPEX. Compare the SoS/BoW table for today with those for the past March and December 3rd Fridays. Doesn't look like an outlier to me.

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  167. Eaten Silver, I also believe there was some index rebalancing today or this week. That may play a role.

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  168. You guys are right, my bad, anyways I was going to enter those positions anyways so I'm not too worried.

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  169. is the wave D scenario off the table? if so that means we still have a wave C to play out??

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  170. I think it's way to late Mitchell for a continuation of the C-wave, plus the dollar in all likelihood bottomed. Gary thinks we're near the top right now for PMs, I agree.

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  171. is Greek bailout package on Monday?

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  172. But many minds still think Gold and silver are going parabolic in the next few weeks/months.

    A lot of reports out there the last two weeks of $10000 gold.

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  173. Gold Futures Stall on Greek Bailout Hopes‎

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  175. July 13th seemed like it would be the cycle low when it occurred. I like the 13th, it provides much more clarity. Good chance gold could test $1,550 where recent (past cycle) resistance was found, but it would be very unlikely it beats the last cycle high.
    If we get $1,550 over the next some days, that would be a juicy spot to go extra short Silver, even gold for the very brave.

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  176. Crazy how nobody can get out of miners safely if they hold them, and many do...

    Crazy too if you've held GDX, GG, or AEM, you've made nothing in the last 4 years!

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  177. "bear markets, by their nature, tend not to provide such spots (bounces), meaning we have further confirmation our bear trade is appropriate."

    -Doc

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  178. I like the rephasing of the cycle, Gary.
    SnP looking lethargic despite the drop in the USD.
    Next week should be interesting!

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  179. Michael,

    Gold banged its head off the 1550 level a few times so rallying $50 off the 10dma this intermediate cycle is unlikely, but who knows, not me!

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  180. Gary,

    You always put my mind at ease, thanks!

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  181. Aaron,

    Yes I suspect we will test 1249 next week and I would think we would see more determined buyers coming at that level.

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  182. LOL anyone else get these NIA emails? Talk about a pump and dump.

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  183. My thoughts: We have built up enormous pessimism. The emotional tendency is to want to short a bounce too early because it "feels" like we are going back down right away. That feeling is because we have gotten smashed in the recent past. I try to feel my emotions as a clue as to what NOT to do. I "feel" like we are going to crash soon, so probably we are going up. If I feel that way, so does everyone else, so they have all sold already. No one would stay long expecting a crash. I covered some shorts yesterday and bought some SPY this morning to hedge more. I like to clear my mind of my trading knowledge and just feel what new traders must be feeling. Just another way to look at trading...

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  184. I thought about that too DG, thoroughly, but look what you've done now, you'd diluted your strong hand status.

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  185. DG,

    You are 100% correct. I am one of those new traders, so what ever I think do the opposite....lol

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