We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Matterhorn


Incredible scenery in Switzerland.

230 comments:

  1. Nice.

    So any subs make the trip over?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Gary,

    Thats beautiful, I want to climb it.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Nice,nice. Wow, a jacket, not used to those,lol.

    Nice scenery and expensive everything else to us.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gary, what a handsome dashing young man you are indeed

    ReplyDelete
  5. i think the nasdaq is now negative for the YTD. oh my. A crack up boom in the stock markets

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anyone here shorting oil, or thoughts on same? :o)

    ReplyDelete
  7. that rocks got nada on you, Savage!

    IYR was a good call ..

    ReplyDelete
  8. Eamonn,
    Oil should follow (or lead) the commodities into their 2.5 year cycle low...I have USO Oct Puts

    ReplyDelete
  9. Poly,
    Thanks for your prior comments. My wife and I have been debating about taking profits from our puts vs staying old turkey for the IC decline. We have waited for this predicted turn for weeks and now that our positions are in the green, I hate to exit and miss most of the ride.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Michael, thank you for your comment. May I ask what strike you chose?

    ReplyDelete
  11. 17 attendees here in Switzerland.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Gary said:

    "I doubt the market is going to bounce back to 1310. 1300 would be good in my opinion. You aren't going to get the exact top of counter trend rallies so I wouldn't even try. Just pick spots that are "good enough".


    Great Call

    ReplyDelete
  13. Looks and sounds like you all are having a great time, though a bit chilly!

    Gary, for those that couldn't make Switz. pool party at your place this fall, when it cools off in Vegas a tiny bit?

    ReplyDelete
  14. Eamonn,

    I have the 40 strike.. I like to keep it in the money.. and got them just after the big move up from OPEC meeting failure...so they were reasonably priced...

    ReplyDelete
  15. Also, on sharper declines, the 10 Day SMA tends to act as overhead resistance.

    ReplyDelete
  16. this is a 60 min chart ( short term ) But should this level break -do the down side, Lookout, but maybe we have a short term support level ?

    SLV 60MIN

    http://screencast.com/t/YiXg9fzOh

    ReplyDelete
  17. Michael, thanks for that :o)

    ReplyDelete
  18. Michael, bought some USO 08/20/2011 39.00 Put
    Lets hope we can do well :o)

    ReplyDelete
  19. Gann,
    Thanks for the chart...

    Eamonn,
    Good luck..

    ReplyDelete
  20. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Gary,

    Are you going to trade oil in model portfolio.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Michael, it's a h&s dating back to the beginning of the year. The neckline is at the 32 area so we a way to go, but if it hits look out below (20 and change is longterm support). chart would look almost identical to oils parabolic rally that formed a h&s that fell to longterm support at 35. Internet is down doing this from the iPhone so I calling it a day. I'll check back tonight.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Éamonn, I own some DUG, not much, a smaller stake in ZSL, and a few Oct 33 puts in SLV.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Awesome!!

    Glad to see you're getting some blue sky there too.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Gary, that's great that 17 subs joined you on this trip.

    One of these years I hope to be there.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Thanks WavRidah...
    All the information helps...

    ReplyDelete
  27. Ben, good luck with that. Your portfolio is very similar to mine :o)

    ReplyDelete
  28. Might be a big day for SPY BoW.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hey DG
    I took the plunge with DUG to this morning, pretty much in at 29.70....I have a stop at 28.50...do you have a stop? If so how far underneath where you bought it? Thanks

    Funny Whitebear

    ReplyDelete
  30. Super gorgeous!
    (The mountain looks awesome too . . . )

    ReplyDelete
  31. Gary or ?

    Is Jul enough time for SLV Puts?

    Thanks,
    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete
  32. next week go short on stocks again, wait for rally or just chase the trend? Why is this topping process dragging so long, gold consolidating forever.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hag (I guess that's not the best nickname, eh?) I am in at 29.09 on DUG. I probably would get out at cost if it got there, but I do not impose firm trading rules on myself. I am disciplined enough not to get killed in a position. I get out quick but hard to explain exactly how. Break even is a good idea as a rule of thumb once you have a nice profit in something.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Vonda, was your dog crazy happy when you came home? :o)

    ReplyDelete
  35. Dammit! I was going on and on (in my head) about buying USO puts...

    Just woke up, sleeping in with the wife.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Nah... can't blame her, it was nice and cozy with rain outside. Been a while since I've slept in till 10.

    ReplyDelete
  37. Just bot more euo at 17.14

    ReplyDelete
  38. If everybody starts talking about SLV puts, I'm gonna sell mine... :-)

    ReplyDelete
  39. DG, you really think the euro is going to explode, don't you?
    EU politics being as it is they wont take action until the last minute/crisis. So I reckon we could see this issue rumble on for a few years.

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hi Eamonn,

    5 dogs! So yes, you can imagine: I got me some homecoming lovin'!

    ReplyDelete
  41. Oil down a few bucks, by the time it hits $80, it will be like leaving a nice little tip behind.

    ReplyDelete
  42. Gann,
    Looks like SLV breaking the Gap Fill line...

    ReplyDelete
  43. Thanks DG
    I will probably move the stop up to where I jumped in if it keeps going like this

    ReplyDelete
  44. Eamon: I don't care when/if the euro explodes. I will sell my euo at 23 when everyone THINKS it's about to explode. I never marry a position. Watch the headline over the next 45 days...

    ReplyDelete
  45. DG, you're the man. I want to learn as much as I can from your posts :o)

    ReplyDelete
  46. That's the Matterhorn? Geez, I can climb that in 2 hours....

    ReplyDelete
  47. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on EUO DG.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Wow Silver now filling the 10 min Gap,,if it doesn't recapture the Intra day double bottom real soon here,,,,,Silver could fall hard,,,

    ReplyDelete
  49. If you're talking currencies, another good option for opposite reason is to look at FXA (short), the Australian Dollar, easily the most over valued currency out there.
    It's tied to the china and commodities story. We get a bought of deflation and a worldwide slowdown, this baby will be back below $0.90 vs $US before you know it. $A0.75 to the dollar is not out of the question.

    ReplyDelete
  50. I'm wondering how we are going to open Monday? Maybe another big down day, then Tuesday people will jump on the short side and the market will rally and screw them.

    Anyone adding to positions today?

    ReplyDelete
  51. Everything is oversold on the 5 minute charts, I expect it all to bounce a bit, not talking dollars but quick day-trade cents.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Haggerty, seems to me that the rising dollar is going to crush everything over the next few weeks. We are only on Day 3 of the new cycle. Stocks & commodities should be hit

    ReplyDelete
  53. Haggery, I jumped on DG's EUO around noon at 17.15.

    Other than that, sitting tight on some SLV puts, FAZ (which I may sell today), SRS (which I may also sell today), and short qqq and spy.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Spin the wheel Haggerty, same odds.

    We're already 42 points below the failed cycle point, our hands are now strong, where rallies become yawns.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Good thought, Poly. I guess in the back of my mind I feel like by the time this leg is over people are going to think the euro is about to be dissolved, so I am banking on a mini-panic there. They're unlikely to think that about the aussie ,but I like you're thinking.

    ReplyDelete
  56. CMT: good for you so far on EUO, but that's a little close to where we are now so we may pull back to there (maybe). It's better not to wait so perhaps you should have bought on the dollar swing low being established. No big deal here, but when the A wave start in late summer and Gary gives the call for GDX don't wait. You want a quick profit so you can add and whether pullbacks. Waiting is not "conservative." It actually sets you up for smaller profits and larger losses.

    ReplyDelete
  57. when's this damn silver consolidation going to end... keep falling now!

    ReplyDelete
  58. Tapped in & out of CHK for a quick 8 minute profit.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Gary:

    Thanks very much for your 25% recommendation on lightening up the model portfolio. It allows me to do a quick assessment as to what I should do for mine, and given that I had started with fairly little, I decided to stay put.

    Given the bear market, will you be trading the daily cycle? or just keep adding at rallies like DG and Poly recommended? I am waiting for the half cycle low (June 20-?)to either pull or add more. Would appreciate any advice from the experts.

    One lesson I learned from the SLV/AGQ parabola was NEVER TO CHASE!!! Especially now when the market is so volatile!

    ReplyDelete
  60. Gary,
    Are you still convinced the upcoming intermediate cycle low for gold will be the D wave decline?

    ReplyDelete
  61. Everything overbought on the 5 minute chart, that was a narrow window for a quick buck.

    ReplyDelete
  62. DG,

    What are your thoughts on entering DUG, a good entry?

    Thanks alot.

    ReplyDelete
  63. William: Forgive me, but people are waiting too long! We have dropped six of the last seven days and oil is getting killed and NOW you ask about shorting oil? People need to come up with a plan when the market is not moving and then execute it. Otherwise you will spend your whole life shorting bottoms and buying tops. Gary talked about oil. I have posted I am short oil. Fubsy is short oil. Poly (I believe) is short oil. The markets have been getting killed. The only reason to short now is because someone can't stand it going down anymore without him. That's like chasing AGQ at 360. (William, this of course isn't about you, but about many, here). This is the very most expensive common trading flaw: waiting for price confirmation so that entering the order is emotionally comfortable. Price confirmation came the moment the dollar swing low formed.

    ReplyDelete
  64. DG, I beg to make a point: we are pretty early yet (Day 3) in the dollar cycle so there should be time yet to short the commodities before the cycle falls to its low :o)

    ReplyDelete
  65. DG,

    I have been in DUG since 28, just wanted to get your input on when to add more being that the dollar just began rallying.

    Forgive me, im a new trader, like baby trader still. We all have to start somewhere.

    ReplyDelete
  66. AAPL turning over, no pun intended.

    ReplyDelete
  67. To further DG's comment about getting in early, I started adding EUO on June 6th, the first day that the dollar started showing some life within the timing band for the swing. I added 25% of my allocation to EUO, then on the the 7th when it dropped I added another 25%, trusting the cycles and feeling confident that we would get a swing soon. On the swing I added my remaining 50% so I was able to get my entire allocation into EUO before the USD crossed the 74 mark. I will sell as close to the top of this daily cycle as I can, and I will continue to use this strategy during this first intermediate cycle for the USD. On the next cycle I will go Old Turkey with a strategy to play the entire intermediate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Increasing number of pm stores are sending me specials on silver bars/rounds. Wonder if they are getting anxious.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Feels like the CPT stepped in here...

    ReplyDelete
  70. kitco of course denies the allegations and puts up fresh david morgan this afternoon:
    david morgan on fed

    ReplyDelete
  71. always read scotia daily, one of the biggest players in precious metals, updates late afternoons every trading day
    scotia

    ReplyDelete
  72. tails on everything...nice V bottom...russell 2000 leading the way

    if these tails stay at close, I might cover and go long

    ReplyDelete
  73. William: Great that you are in at 28. Adding is very different than initiating and a lot of people are now asking about shorting (which actually makes me nervous!) You have a great entry point---nice job. This is a reasonable place to add (around 30) Just don't add more than 60% of your original stake so your average cost stays low. We may bounce but it'd be brief.

    ReplyDelete
  74. William,

    Nice job getting DUG at 28! You should do well with that trade.

    ReplyDelete
  75. A Wacky Newman Prediction:

    [Mark this down. I'll have you know I have a PERFECT record on these things! I'm 0 for 0. ;^) ]


    Today (or Monday) a Big Intermarket Pivot is being put into place.

    1. This will mark the high for the dollar bounce. This new daily cycle in the dollar will be extremely left translated, and will end somewhere in the high 60s about 6 or 7 weeks from now. The new intermediate cycle for the dollar which started in early May will also be extremely left translated and short, probably roughly 13 weeks long. It will look a lot like the intermediate cycle from August - November of last year. This final leg down in the dollar will put in the 3-year-cycle low. What we just had was a "4th wave up" bounce in a 5-wave down pattern that started in June of last year (best seen on a weekly chart).

    2. This final leg down in the dollar will propel gold to the top of its C-Wave. Gold will go over $1700 by the 3rd or 4th week of July, and then start its D-Wave down. Silver will be dragged up into a "rough double top", somewhere in the $48 - 52 area. Miners will break to a new high.

    3. As a result of the dollar going down another leg, commodities will also go to a new high. Oil will be going up too.

    4. I haven't been following the general stock market much at all, but I'll GUESS that today or Monday will be the low of this correction. We've had an A-B-C correction starting in early May, that has priced in "unexpected" weakness in the U.S. economy and the end of QE2. This was the 4th wave down in a 5 waves up pattern that started last summer. From here, the stock market will go on to new highs as it puts in its 5th wave up (a summer rally). This will end sometime in the August - September timeframe. The market will then put in a bigger A-B-C correction, which will give the Fed the political cover to start QE3, which will send the market up again.

    If ANY of this comes true, nobody will be more astonished than me. And if any of this comes true, SOMEBODY here owes me a pizza (pepperoni!).

    All of this came to me in a flash last night, after I'd done my "research" in a martini pitcher. ;^) I'm starting my weekend early now -- and going fishing.

    I wish everyone here good luck in your trading -- and especially in life.

    ReplyDelete
  76. summer doldrums
    zealc

    on the other hand, the bears on GLD SLV see the high downside volume today as the start of a week long move at least...and an end of the recent doldrums

    ReplyDelete
  77. P.S. If my martini pitcher has any "prognostication power" -- today or Monday will be the daily cycle low for gold.

    And if it doesn't have any prognostication power, well, you were forewarned. It was a martini pitcher!

    Gone fishin'!

    ReplyDelete
  78. So I'm trying to think like the masses here not the hedge/institutional buyers.
    I'm regular joe, bought silver/gold at 45$, averaged down at 38$, 35$, 33$, now I'm in deep, today it has gone down and I'm getting antsy.
    All weekend it's going to eat me up so I'm at the verge of deciding that if, come Monday, it opens lower, I'm selling it all and hiding in a closet for a while. Multiply this by a few hundred thousand and you will have sellers unloading SLV/GLD/GDX by the bushel.

    That's my take anyway, what the hell do I know?

    ReplyDelete
  79. Any thoughts on what price the SP500 will begin its counter trend rally?


    I'm thinking about 1250; Where the cycle low was put in.



    James

    ReplyDelete
  80. Monday or Tuesday could be a big wash day for those wanting to get out of the market.

    We'll see.



    James

    ReplyDelete
  81. mrmyagi, I think you are right, I would be wondering what happened with everyone saying Gold and Silver will be going higher? Get on and hang on. If I was a newbie, I would be saying, huh, everyone told me this stuff was going up.

    ReplyDelete
  82. All, I can say... it's nice to see my funds coming back in on the GLD and SLV puts! Lots of Green, Kaching, Kaching. :)

    ReplyDelete
  83. I've tried to think like I would have a few years ago as a newbie smartass stock market dude. These days when I get the urge to buy something after seeing it fall or rise for a few days I step back and take a good look at MAs, BB, indicators that I had no idea existed before. I'm not right all the time but 80%-ish is pretty good. Still learning and this board here has some of the smartest and most helpful folks with great analysis and insight.
    I'm not Mr TA or anything but I can look at a candelstick chart with RSI, MACD and a few other indicators and decipher what the short term direction will be. This has taken me a long long time to learn and I'm nowhere near being the One To Turn To.
    Let's put it this way, I knew jack shit about cycles or Fibbonacci before March of this year and just starting to understand those.

    ReplyDelete
  84. Gary,

    Good call on staying short.
    Left about 10-15 ES points on the table the past 2 days. I had an opportunity to get my position back at 1292 but past on it.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Maybe someone can help me out with this without flipping out on me and wanting to jump me (DG....lol)

    What determines when a cycle begins or ends?

    Thanks everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  86. MrMiyagi, I knew jack shit about cycles or Fibbonacci before March of this year and still don't understand them. So you are a lot smarter than me :o)

    ReplyDelete
  87. I did add to my Gold short today.
    GLD printed a bearish engulfing on the weekly chart.

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  88. Mr M,

    I still dont know what determines when a cycle begins and ends, so be happy.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Eric,

    I have been short on e-mini gold contracts for three days, do you have any idea how I felt watching gold rally? I felt like I wanted to cover at a loss just so I could stop grinding my teeth and so I could get some sleep. Lets hope we fall into this IC soon so we can both be happy. Good luck

    ReplyDelete
  90. William,
    If you area a subscriber, read the Terminology section, it gives more information about cycles than I can summarize here.

    ReplyDelete
  91. SLV lost 3.35% and closed at it's low for the day. It will be interesting to see if anyone would look at that as anything but a sign to sell on Monday.As per Mr. Miyagi, I think it will be a difficult weekend for silver bears.

    ReplyDelete
  92. William,

    Take a look at GLD, that's one bearish looking weekly chart. I'll probably sit tight for 5-8 weeks. Gold have a lot of catching up to do on the downside. Let's hope it starts next week.

    :)

    ReplyDelete
  93. MR M,

    I did read the terminology section, I have to study it now. I guess I will get an answer to what determines when a cycle begins or ends there. I know there is a duration to each cycle, but want to know what to look for to know for sure that a cycle has begun or ended. Im assuming it has to do with swings?

    ReplyDelete
  94. Eric,

    I noticed on the weekly chart that gold's intermediate declines bounce off the 30dma, so hopefully we will see that again so I have a good exit plan. We'll see what happens.

    ReplyDelete
  95. William,
    Someone will surely answer that specific question as for me I don't know...

    ReplyDelete
  96. Wm, see swing high, swing low, and cycles in terminology document if you are a subcriber. Also, there is a cycle count charts page. Maybe someone can tell you how Gary determines the cycle changes in terms that Gary will agree on. Candlesticks are used for starters. Then there are small and large cycles. The daily cycle is the smallest. Then yearly, intermediate, and big cycle. Gary talks most about daily cycle swings. So many daily cycles make an intermeidate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Yeh ha today. The Euro is dead meat.

    Gary, that mountain looks beautiful.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Humer,

    Thank you. I am a subscriber, and still have to study everything further. Everything you mentioned I am beginning to grasp, the one thing I dont understand yet is exactly how do we know when a cycle begins or ends.

    ReplyDelete
  99. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  100. William,

    You can only tell if a new cycle ended only after the fact.

    If you are in a timing band for a low and you get a swing low. You possibly could have the start of a new cycle. Then you can add a downward trend line break for confirmation. Gary also uses sentiment at the same time, which is a little more subjective. That helps add confirmation.

    ReplyDelete
  101. "I felt like I wanted to cover at a loss just so I could stop grinding my teeth and so I could get some sleep," welcome to SMT Wm.

    Terminology doc says swings or cycle changes are based on exceeding the previous intraday high or low. So you have to understand candlesticks.

    To make it simple, the market goes up for 3-5 days, then goes down 3-5 days.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Thank you everyone for explaining that for me, I really appreciate all of you!

    ReplyDelete
  103. William,
    It would be a good idea for you to take the time to read through Gary's archives, especially the weekend reports. Also, read all the different links he has posted which explain the definitions of cycles, options, Bolinger Band crashes, etc.

    Doing this will answer a lot of your questions. People here are very helpful in providing answers to specific questions, but you can't expect to get your education this way. You must put in some effort to answer your own questions. The information is all there, and you've got a weekend ahead of you, so dig in! It's empowering!

    ReplyDelete
  104. So the beginning of Gold's intermediate decline will be confirmed by a break of the daily cycle upward trendline and then a swing high below what level?

    ReplyDelete
  105. ckpc,

    Understood, and that goes without words. But when your new to all this sometimes you dont grasp certain things or see them clearly until someone puts it in simple terms or different words. I am a quick learner and no stranger to hard work...I go on two hours of sleep a night, I will hopefully be running right next to all of you amazing traders soon enough (two years...lol) I know it gets frustrating for some experienced traders to help those who are not yet experienced, but all of us had a beginning.

    ReplyDelete
  106. William, that's a great question. My understanding is that by using cycle theory, you can create an expectation of a coming cycle end, but you can not "know" when a cycle ends until after the fact.

    A swing high in a bull market marks the peak of the middle of a cycle and this peak can be either left or right translated (cycles are usually asymmetrical). The final swing low in the cycle will mark the end of one cycle and the beginning of another.

    Personally, I only "know" when a cycle begins or ends when Gary tells me it has.

    ReplyDelete
  107. GLD & SLV today were both between the 10 and 20 DMA. SLV closed just under.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Wm, I think you are catching on; but, that would be the DAILY cycle low. If you look at GOLD on the Cycle Count Charts page, you can see the INTERMEDIATE cycles marked by BLUE arrows. So, we are probably getting close to half way through the second daily cycle since the new intermediate cycle began in FEB. Since, it is practically certain to be a down daily cycle, a intermediate decline could be ushering in.

    Soon the cycle will reveal whether it is destine to be longer or shorter than average. This will suggest that the market will be advancing or declining faster or slower than average or faster or slower than the previous daily cycle(s).

    But, pimaCanyon says to determine the INTERMEDIATE cycle changes based on the weekly chart. He is the real cycle analysis expert, methinks.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Rick,

    "Personally, I only "know" when a cycle begins or ends when Gary tells me it has."

    After having explained it so well, to follow up with the above!!

    LOLLL...now im really confused!

    ReplyDelete
  110. I'm really missing Gary being on the blog

    ReplyDelete
  111. awwwwwww jeff, that's so sweet

    ReplyDelete
  112. Just re-read June 8th report on SP500.


    Sounds about right for a counter trend rally to begin.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Just got the e-flyer from Tulving; $275 million silver sale extended through end of June. 99 cent over spot special. Earlier this week it was sealed and unsealed 500 oz mint boxs. Shortages vs. sales. Hhmmmm.

    Welcome back Vonda. I hope you brought your Zany along. :)

    ReplyDelete
  114. Humer,

    "So, we are probably getting close to half way through the second daily cycle since the new intermediate cycle began in FEB"

    Did you mean half way through the intermediate cycle, we have already gone through 2 daily cycles according to Gary's red arrows?

    ReplyDelete
  115. William, just some self-deprecating humor. But truthfully, while I do try to formulate my own interpretation of where the cycles are and where they might end, I do rely HEAVILY on the more experienced interpretations of Gary and some of the other wizards on this blog.

    It was very helpful for me to go back in time a couple of years on the charts and try to mark the Intermediate and Daily Cycles, and then compare them to Gary's points. I am still working on that.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Wm, you're right. I wasn't measureing daily cycles from trough to trough (low to low) so, we are heading down to finsh the daily cycle. You have to look at gld on stockcharts.com to see how the current daily cycle panned out.

    ReplyDelete
  117. I'm not buying another oz of silver until it hits the 20's

    ReplyDelete
  118. Any "thedocument" subscribers here?

    ReplyDelete
  119. Wondering if Gary and thedoc would be redundant.

    ReplyDelete
  120. SkepticSquirrel, send me a mail

    ReplyDelete
  121. SkepticSquirrel, send me a mail

    ReplyDelete
  122. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  123. I wonder if Gary was invited to the Bilderberg meet at St. Moritz...

    ReplyDelete
  124. William
    One of the favorite sayings around hear is " never short a bull market, the surprises are always on the upside "

    I know you are short minis so be careful

    Go back through the archives one year back and read read read.

    Scan through very far back in the bloggs, all the while searching for garys comments You will discover most of garys principles

    ReplyDelete
  125. Squirrel
    Both are sooooo worth it

    ReplyDelete
  126. Skeptic Squirrel,
    Best money you can spend, don't waste your time on others, these two are the best I have found and I spent a lot of time and money looking and stopped looking after finding Gary and Doc.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Besides what I said above, there are a lot of great "folks" (LOL) on the blogs as well as excellent traders from all over. Can't beat a winning combination!

    ReplyDelete
  128. MF globle is long gold at 1528 today, target 1577
    This bugs me to no end. Grrrr

    ReplyDelete
  129. Eamonn,
    I jumped in to DUG today.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Haggerty, thanks.... wasn't sure if I was the only one....

    ReplyDelete
  131. Yo, Eamonn... Been in DUG for a few days too. Got a nice green light right now!

    ReplyDelete
  132. KAL, ok, that makes three of us so!

    ReplyDelete
  133. Kitco Charged With Massive Tax Fraud Scheme, Business Viability In Question

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/kitco-charged-massive-tax-fraud-scheme-business-viability-question

    ReplyDelete
  134. "In the current environment of negative real interest rates worldwide and sick US & Euro economies, it's inconceivable to us that Gold could slip much from the current $1,545/oz level."

    -Gold stock analyst, John Doody

    When he says that gold will not slip much from the 1545 level, do you think he means like 1450ish, or more like 1500ish? I wonder.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Today went according to script. With the Dow below 12000 I will start deploying my cash judiciously into quality mega cap companies. Not rushing it though, this summer will offer many new and exciting opportunities to get back in the market cheap.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Gary,
    I looks like having a great time. Enjoy

    ReplyDelete
  137. Hack,

    Do you think these current levels represent a bottom in the equities market already??

    Certainly, there will be buying opportunities down the road (Fall?), but I think that we still have a ways down to go before I go long in stocks. We need an IT low for starters.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Gary!

    In your June 7 report on the Gold chart you have an upward trendline drawn that you mentioned you were waiting for a break of as confirmation the cycle topped, and it sits below the second swing high without a penetration of the trendline. On the ThinkorSwim Platform the same trendline shows that it was already penetrated and then broken the next day.

    What chart should we follow, stockcharts or thinkorswim?

    ReplyDelete
  139. Gary,

    Im sorry, let me correct my last post. I was looking at the Gold chart, not the GLD. My mistake.

    ReplyDelete
  140. There is a re-phasing of the gold cycle. It will be explained in the weekend report.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Can we make a special education blog for William?

    ReplyDelete
  142. William,
    Don't worry one little bit about asking questions. We were all beginners once and if someone hadn't taken the time to explain things to us we would have stayed beginners.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Gary:

    Would appreciate if you could point out a few options in the weekend report for the model portfolio: when the cycle low is expected, buy more or sell for a better entry, as well as some alternative scenarios. Your analysis of the different possibilities is excellent, and much appreciated.

    Thanks very much for checking in so regularly even on vacation.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Options will no longer be a part of the model portfolio.

    If you understand options then you don't need me to direct you. And if you don't understand options then you have no business buying them.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Aklaunch,

    I thought this was the special education blog!

    Thats why your here am I wrong?

    Thanks Gary for being such a great teacher.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Re-phase ? Is this a total new gameplan ?

    ReplyDelete
  147. Gary:

    I did not mean options as to buy options, but as in the lay meaning of the word option, like different alternatives of the model portfolio, or different potential scenarios of the cycles playing out.

    I don't know that I'll ever get aggressive enough to get to the fancy ways of making money...

    ReplyDelete
  148. The only thing you will need to do is decide if you wish to invest heavier than the model portfolio but you won't need to deviate from the basic portfolio to make money.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Gary, looking sharp!

    You're scaring me with this 'gold cycle rephasing' talk. Things looked good for my gold puts on Friday but I will be downing a bit more baijiu (Chinese liquor) than usual until the weekend report comes out...

    ReplyDelete
  150. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  151. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Hi DOC,

    I heard a lot of good things from subs here about your work. I was thinking of subscribing but looking into your free articles, it feels like you and Gary are one person... How can I be sure that it is not the case?

    ReplyDelete
  153. Wm, it is actually a little more accurate to use the $GOLD chart. The only advantage to GLD is that you can see the candlesticks.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Sophia:

    I can guarantee you that DOC and Gary are not the same person. All the subs up both can tell you the same thing. Actually, DOC 's style is quite different than Gary's, and actually complements Gary's in many cases! That's why many have said it's worth it to sub to both.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Gary,

    Is there an elevator inside the Matterhorn to take out-a-shape farts to the top? I'd like to plant my flag then go catch a massage from a European woman then eat some Mediterranean octopus...

    I've been taking care of personal stuff since late April and have not been that active in the markets nor sharing much here. I am still getting my feet wet with AA and learning to live my life differently.

    This next week I hope to re-establish positions either short or long ETF's, whatever the general direction you foresee us going.

    After you return, I want to get back learning your cycles and strategies. If I don't use or follow then my brain loses it.

    Have a great time with the remainder of the trip and with your fellow trackers.

    ReplyDelete
  156. sophia,

    I am a member of both services and I can assure you that they are in fact different people. :)

    BTW, paying an extra $200 a year is peanuts since I have made many multiples of that which is a direct result of being a member of both services.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Hi Gary:

    Would SH and QID be the best ETF's to go long to play the Bear? I don't intend to short now and am happy waiting for a rally or shorting the next confirmation - so wanted to learn.

    Also, since we are going long these ETF's, would a stop below their respective cycle lows be a good strategy?

    Thanks and enjoy your vacation!

    ReplyDelete
  158. Sophia,

    Doc uses options frequently and has his "docfolio" which is not a model portfolio. No % and not real time.

    ReplyDelete
  159. NJ,

    Try PSQ if you want 1x the inverse Qs.

    ReplyDelete
  160. clicked on the wrong blog page and saw new post..... not a new post yet... mean trick on myself .. sigh

    ReplyDelete
  161. baijiu ? might be giving that a shot

    ReplyDelete
  162. Freaking Awesome report today Gary!!

    Thanks for the time/effort while on vacation.

    MD

    ReplyDelete
  163. Regarding the discussion yesterday about when to short oil, dg made some excellent points. i want to add that I've been ardo using upper pivots or reversals to add
    to my positions.
    Currently watching the xle for a break-in below its neckline to add to dug. or needs to close below it.
    sorry about random words in this message. this auto fill on the Droid Ud driving me nuts.
    fc

    ReplyDelete
  164. fubsy_cooter, get an iPhone. I had a Nexus One and was not happy with it. Compared with iOS, Android is beta or even alpha software.
    Now, you said "Currently watching the xle for a break-in below its neckline to add to dug. or needs to close below it." What do you mean by "or needs to close below it"? Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  165. Great report Gary

    Wasn't scary as I thought and I'm on target

    Still contrary to mf global , but I'm going with you on this

    ReplyDelete
  166. Gary:

    Thanks very much for the weekend report, and for keep on working hard while you are on vacation.

    That said, I do have a favor to ask, if it's not too much. I would appreciate very much if you could also extend the charts in "Cycle count" to match with the ones in the weekend report, and show where you might expect the upcoming cycle movements for each of the chart (in Cycle Count). That would allow us to see side by side the interplay between the daily cycles vs. intermediate cycles vs. yearly cycles of the major groups (stocks, dollar, gold, etc...)

    This is a request for whenever is convenient for you, if you decide to do it.

    Thanks again, very much.

    ReplyDelete
  167. Hi Gary,

    I was hoping to get your thoughts on Silver. Could we be in a 5 wave pattern with Aug 24th being the start of 1st wave, Jan 28th being the start of the 3rd wave and ??? being the start of the 5th and final wave? This long term trend line has not been broken yet. I am currently short silver and have done nicely this year with silver yet conflicted with direction.

    ReplyDelete
  168. Poly:

    Whenever you feel like doing it, I would appreciate an interpretation of Gary's weekend report with the high and low probability scenarios...

    Thanks much,

    ReplyDelete
  169. Alex:

    On your chart published on Th (?), would you reinterpret it as a test back to the trend line, and now a continuation down?

    Thanks,

    ReplyDelete
  170. Gary:

    For the charts in Cycle Count, if you are extending them and put in potential future cycle arrows, please put them all on the same time frame for comparison.

    Thanks much,

    ReplyDelete
  171. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Gary..(you can answer this when you return from your trip if you wish)
    1. As you point out, sentiment is extremely bearish. How is this market going to continue to drop, and break the March low with such bearish readings?

    2. What are the chances of the dollar correlating with the spx and rising with the S&P.

    Very respected e-wave guys, Caldero and PUG, and many bloggers in general are looking for a bottom around the 200sma, or a slight overshoot to end this correction, and then a rally to new highs. Maybe this is why we will continue down.

    Anyone, what side of the fence is TK on now?

    ReplyDelete
  173. Ok, On my computer now. The Droid is a great phone, but the keyboard and auto-fill is confounding!! it keeps filling in words in spanish??!!! WTF?

    Anyway, I'm watching xle for a close below 72.79, which will signal an intermediate cycle failure in XLE. I suppose this will coincide a breakdown in the SnP.

    As we get closer, though, I'm becoming cautious of the neckline in the SnP as a possible point for a bounce into a right shoulder in a possible Head and Shoulders top on the general market. So, I'm playing the market as it unfolds and my plans have been shifting as price action dictates.

    fc

    ReplyDelete
  174. hkc,
    i think it's not possible uptdate charts on usd index and gold, cause stockcharts has stopped his service on provide candlesticks charts on commodities ans usd index.

    ReplyDelete
  175. Gary,

    Also, I thank you for your work. I had some nice profits on GDX and SLW puts last week.

    Jeff

    ReplyDelete
  176. Gough,

    I'm not privy to PUG's expectations (his is purely a pay site), but Caldaro isn't quite that bearish at the moment. His most recent update has a bottom in the neighborhood of the March low as the preferred view, with more bearish alternative counts listed.

    FWIW, as always.

    http://caldaro.wordpress.com/2011/06/11/weekend-update-296/#comments

    ReplyDelete
  177. Daniele:

    May be just using the same charts in the weekend report, but put them on the same time frame and with the cycle counts for the Cycle count area?

    ReplyDelete
  178. FC:

    Do you mind giving a SnP H&S line estimate, or publish a chart to show it? Thanks much.

    ReplyDelete
  179. Thanks R.
    Caldero seems bullish to me and is expecting this correction to end around 1240.

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.