We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

GOLD OIL RATIO

The gold:oil ratio is nearing the upper limits of its trading band. When this level has been reached in the past it usually signaled a decline in gold (move down into an intermediate cycle low) and a rally in oil was eminent.

Normally I would expect the same this time as gold is very deep into an intermediate cycle and overdue for a major corrective move. There is a problem though. Oil is still very early in its intermediate cycle. Also oil has broken below its prior intermediate cycle low signaling a failed and left translated intermediate cycle is in progress.



Taking into consideration a normal intermediate oil cycle lasts 50 to 70 days, and this cycle is only on day 32, then oil should generally continue lower for another 20+ days. 

As oil and stocks have been moving in lockstep lately it's not surprising that the stock market's daily cycle also has 20 or so days before an expected final intermediate bottom.

So if the gold:oil ratio is to regress back to the mean, and oil still has a month before an expected bottom the only way the gold oil ratio can decline is if gold starts to accelerate to the downside, dropping significantly faster than oil.

197 comments:

  1. An interesting perspective I heard today..I think it was Richard Grandish on Jay Taylors radio show is that an easing of inflation (ie lower oil prices) will be very bullish for mining shares. Could mining shares and the DX go up together?

    ReplyDelete
  2. my god, i better sell my oil puts tomorrow

    ReplyDelete
  3. At its peak oil was $40 below the high of 08. Oil wasn't what was holding miners back.

    Considering that the HUI is on the verge of a 50 DMA cross below the 200 DMA it would seem that the miners are trying to discount and impending severe intermediate decline.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gary,

    So we should expect oil to go up and gold down?

    ReplyDelete
  5. Gary,

    Im sorry, but this is not clear to me:

    "Normally I would expect the same this time as gold is very deep into an intermediate cycle and overdue for a major corrective move. There is a problem though."

    What do you mean there is a problem though, does that suggest that gold will not enter into an intermediate decline yet?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Gary, how reliable, if I may ask, has the gold:oil ratio been in the past? Is it an important part of your toolkit? Thanks, Eamonn

    ReplyDelete
  7. So if the gold:oil ratio is to regress back to the mean, and oil still has a month before an expected bottom the only way the gold oil ratio can decline is if gold starts to accelerate to the downside, dropping significantly faster than oil.

    ReplyDelete
  8. William, in order for the gold:oil ratio to correct, gold will have to (relatively) go down. One way this is accomplished by oil rising. However, given oil is early in its failed cycle and unlikely to rise, it is more likely gold will accelerate downward at a greater rate than oil to balance the ratio

    ReplyDelete
  9. Rogers: No Way Greece Can Payoff Debts (video)

    http://seekingold.com/index.php/Gold-Market/Gold-Analysis/Select-Reading/Rogers-No-Way-Greece-Can-Payoff-Debts.html

    ReplyDelete
  10. Eamonn, has the student become the teacher? Haha!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Eamonn,
    so why dump the oil puts? Or are you Horsing around? :)

    ReplyDelete
  12. KAL, one thing I do know in this life is that I am not a good teacher. But I will try to help

    ReplyDelete
  13. 86d4life, that was a dumb ass mistake. I hadn't finished reading the article. The oil:gold ratio is a thing I didn't know about before so it nice to have a new tool in my toolkit.

    ReplyDelete
  14. I dropped this at the end of the last post than saw Gary had put up a new post. This is worth looking at I think.

    http://www.sunshineprofits.com/commentary/21-jun


    Hey Gary,
    why when you put up the free posts is the right side of the page gone? Thanks for the new post by the way.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Eamonn,

    Thanks for explaining that to me, I appreciate it. This is still all new to me, I never even knew that ratio existed until now. After re-reading Gary's post a few times I began to understand exactly what you just explained. I was a confused at first because gary said "there is a problem though" and wasn't sure what exactly the problem was. From watching the gold and oil futures markets for some months now it seems that when gold drops it declines alot quicker than oil does, so I would assume that if gold is about to enter an intermediate decline the gold oil ration will regress as suggested.

    ReplyDelete
  16. 86,

    thats because your view is set too large, I just dropped mine from 175% to 125% and its fine now.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Eamonn,
    yeah, I find myself doing that once in a while. Sometimes it`s been during trading hours and I`ve almost put in trades and then catch myself at the last second. But I`ve found that`s the kind of thing that can make a guy slow down a little and that can be a real life saver.

    ReplyDelete
  18. 86d4life, yes, they stumble that run fast

    ReplyDelete
  19. William,
    Thanks Dude! Never thought of that. Pretty simple. Hey, are you taking MSM after your shoulder surgery? It`s the clear deal; just ask Gary.............:)

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hey Eamonn,
    did your brother ever try it for his knees?

    ReplyDelete
  21. 86,

    I used to take MSM but no more, I take a ton of vitamins, I heal real quick. Im back to bodybuilding hard now.

    ReplyDelete
  22. 86d4life, his knee was surgically replaced a few weeks ago. So he didn't have the chance. I plan on getting it though, and I would like to have platelet enriched plasma therapy too. I have seen relatives with knee replacement surgery many times now, and its not nice. In fact, it is brutal

    ReplyDelete
  23. 86,

    Theres actually alot of MSM in my joint supplement.

    ReplyDelete
  24. William,
    absolutely amazing stuff.

    Eamonn,
    he should be taking it especially now to help reduce inflamation and speed healing.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Eamonn,
    your talking about the treatment that Gary is getting for his knees. I tell you, that sounds like a real slick deal if it helps put off surgery. I think about knee replacements and I almost want to hurl just thinking about it.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Driver,
    Hey Cool! yeah I know, a kid in a candy store. I don`t get out much. Lol. Thanks man.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Eamonn, I was just foolin around. That was a play on Kung Fu.

    I once visited a guy in our church who had a total knee replacement. I was back in the hospital about a month later to visit him again... They recalled his knee. Boy was he mad! That was a tough deal.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Gary,
    Take a look at a chart of GDX, it recently had a "death cross" (50dma crossing below, 200DMA.) It was extremely oversold and it is bouncing now, but the question I have is when was the last "death cross," it looks like back in late 08, and is there anything to glean from this?

    thanks.
    jeff g

    ReplyDelete
  29. "Considering that the HUI is on the verge of a 50 DMA cross below the 200 DMA it would seem that the miners are trying to discount and impending severe intermediate decline."

    ReplyDelete
  30. GLD, GDX and SLV were also on the SOS menu today, in case y'all missed it.

    Gary, I'm just amazed at the 12 week thingy in the cycles that you pointed out tonight, it's practically like ovulation.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Ok, right. Sorry. It looks like 55 is a decent level of resistance now, so I'm going to buy some puts on it there. RSI5 should be over 70 and williams indicator should be overbought. any thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  32. Why not just enjoy some time off and once the market corrects then put your capital to work on the long side?

    One doesn't have to trade every day and trying to catch the top in a bull market is tough.

    Probably what will happen is you won't time it right and end up panicking out for a loss several times before catching the top.

    Then usually what happens is one is so shell shocked from multiple losses that they can't hold on when they do manage to catch the top.

    The safe money is made by patiently waiting for the correction and then buying heavily as close to the bottom as you can.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Oil is pretty oversold so would expect it to bounce for a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Looks like the Greek thing is calmed, souvlakis for everyone OPA!

    ReplyDelete
  35. You make excellent points. I will attempt to refrain. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  36. MrMiyagi, that's very funny RE ovulation!!

    ReplyDelete
  37. Gary,

    LOLL...you couldnt be more right about panicking out and being shell shocked...you must have done it to yourself many times in the past and learned well from it.

    ReplyDelete
  38. The SLW chart indicates a continuation wedge bull trend pattern. This bodes well for miners in general.

    ReplyDelete
  39. Check out one of Rambus' SLV charts.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96228936454&a=212695674&listNum=54

    ReplyDelete
  40. And here - GDX:GOLD Chart. This one is amazing


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:$GOLD&p=W&yr=16&mn=6&dy=0&id=p13755617821&a=229863894&listNum=107

    ReplyDelete
  41. Here's SIL.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p53041889324&a=214865328&listNum=79

    These are all Rambus Charts. The guy is amazing.

    ReplyDelete
  42. SIL chart worked, the other 2 didn't. Go here to look at the article if you're interested.

    http://arch11.goldtent.org/?p=67117

    ReplyDelete
  43. this stoppage of retail investors from being able to trade PM futures on the Forex should have a huge effect on the PM prices. Being leveraged up to 100:1 in that market, the sales that will be forcibly liquidated if the positions haven't been sold prior to the 15th of July will push the market down huge!

    isn't this the only market in the world an average Joe could have had up to 100:1 leverage on gold or silver?! Jeez! Now that will all be winding down and Joe, if he has anything left will be left with 2-3x leverage maybe a little more through normal exchanges.

    ReplyDelete
  44. What's funny is right now the participants in the Forex with PMs probably realize this is the last straw and will be trying to hit home runs prior to mid-July. Most will probably be rudely awaken to an int. decline!

    I wouldn't be surprised to see higher prices tomorrow or the following day to lure these suckers in.

    Hey Nitro, weren't you trading these successfully? If so, what are your feelings now?

    ReplyDelete
  45. im really getting frustrated with the dollar. Today really hit a nerve and is starting to agrivate me. If i do sell it ill let you guys know, because that will be a sure signal that there will be a 1.25 bounce about 30 minutes after i sell =)

    ReplyDelete
  46. Looks like we will be watching paint dry until the Fed later today.

    ReplyDelete
  47. I thought maybe the blogger died. :)

    ReplyDelete
  48. 86, Gary recommended we take some time off,lol:)

    ReplyDelete
  49. TL :)

    Maybe everybodys string is getting stretched a little tight? Lol

    ReplyDelete
  50. Gold is up 7 days in a row! Thats some strength!

    ReplyDelete
  51. 1550+ on gold. My guess is well have a sell the news market turn once the fed meeting kicks in.

    Otherwise gold will officially break out.

    ReplyDelete
  52. Can anyone compare effectiveness of the options versus futures in view of upcoming gold bottom?

    I never worked with futures, but moderately experienced with options.

    Also, any recommendations about specific futures brokers?

    ReplyDelete
  53. Death cross, eh? More TA BS. Remember the hype about it last year?

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-30/death-cross-in-s-p-500-may-not-lead-to-rout-technical-analysis.html

    Great tool that is correct 50% of the time.

    ReplyDelete
  54. The S&P is a long ways from the death cross???

    ReplyDelete
  55. I certainly don't think the miners are in a bear market. I do think they are discounting a severe impending correction in gold though.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Gold just keeps going up---might get a correction but it may be close to 1600 before we get a pullback--With the FOMC meeting today you would of thought gold would be flat but it sure surprising everyone

    ReplyDelete
  57. Like I said gold will do whatever it has to to draw everybody in at the top :)

    ReplyDelete
  58. Its sure doing a good job of doing that if that is the case --up over $9 already today

    ReplyDelete
  59. Gary, are you concerned at all by the current US Dollar index cycle??

    ReplyDelete
  60. The dollar cycle is irrelevant as gold moves down into an intermediate bottom independent of whether the dollar is moving up or down.

    An intermediate decline is a regression to the mean profit-taking event, and gold is starting to stretch far above the mean.

    I find it easiest to visualize this if I back the chart out two or three years. That way it is easier to see how far gold is stretched above the mean.

    If you look at history it's apparent that upside is limited once this stretch occurs and it's always followed by a move back down to the 200 day moving average, or in the recent cases the 150 day moving average.

    ReplyDelete
  61. But maybe it was a buying opportunity last week for miners?

    If you bought NGD last week then you are up 15-20% at this point. I bought some at 8.76 but sold yesterday since it was a trade. Some of the weaker stuff that I own like NXG is still treading water. Well, it's up 3% today.

    There were rumors of hedge funds running long gold and short miner pair trades, but I didn't see any indication of that based on short interest. If that data is even correct.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Frank,
    I would never buy the precious metals sector 21 weeks into an intermediate cycle and with gold starting to stretch far above the 200 day moving average.

    One could take it for a short term trade I guess it's too dangerous for me to play with.

    ReplyDelete
  63. DP,
    A futures contract should perform better if indeed you catch a bottom. Options almost invariably charge a premium but provide limited risk characteristics.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Fusby or DG

    I have a core holding of EUO that I'd like to build on. I'm thinking here looks like a decent spot to add a little. Any thoughts appreciated

    ReplyDelete
  65. Thanks Aaron.

    Have the same feeling that in frame of cycles approach futures would do better since do not have time decay.

    ReplyDelete
  66. Clark. Depends. What is your reason for adding here? What do you see that says this is the right spot?

    ReplyDelete
  67. Gary, I was arguing/ discussing with Poly yesterday about the standard deviation of your IM gold cycles and how that is important since the standard deviation should influence probability based decision making.

    There is also the inherent bias of labelling the troughs. Could May have been a shallow trough? I noted some inconsistencies in the labelling of the troughs from your chart on the free site and the example (through early 2010) on your premium site. E.g., Oct 2007. I also recall the difficulty you had in Jan-Feb 2010 when it would have been better to be "old Turkey" and indeed Feb 2010 was a great buying opportunity.

    Now the picture is even more complicated because of the disconnect between gold and miners of recent months. You say miners were discounting an imminent plunge in gold. Maybe so. I don't know.

    I suppose one point with this is that one should never be all-in or all-out (of miners) if we are indeed still in a secular bull market. And it also ties into the difficulty of becoming a "strong hand".

    ReplyDelete
  68. Why would one be buying gold right now when in all likelihood Sir Ben is about to announce the official end of QE?

    ReplyDelete
  69. Were there any simple facts about $HUI suring to top of trendline, before blowing us away with the gold:oil?

    Looks like oil will rise a bit at this point which is the more likly reason to take the gold to oil ration down.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Interesting GOLD Channel on 120Min Chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/s1OxpdqV

    ReplyDelete
  71. That theres some juice left in the day dollar cycle, i View it as a medium term holding , I'm underexposed and looking to build my position, and recent weakness over the last couple of days

    ReplyDelete
  72. Long GDXJ 66%-, EUO 13%
    Short SLV 8%
    Cash 13%

    -reduced position

    ReplyDelete
  73. Do
    I have one broker from daniels tradeing that would take time and talk to you. His name is arron kuck

    ReplyDelete
  74. Bill Gross just announced he predicts QE3 to commence in August.

    No different than when Gary has it beggining in accordance with his cycles.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Jeff,

    Thanks, I'll call the number on their site and will find this guy.

    ReplyDelete
  76. Feels like gold is bever going to regress!

    ReplyDelete
  77. DP, Definitely visit our site, but feel free to call me directly too: 866-430-1246

    ReplyDelete
  78. "bever"? too tired.. meant "never".

    ReplyDelete
  79. Silver and gold have been range trading now for quite a while. The miners are starting to play catch up and have definitely turned the corner. The bull trend in the market is intact.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Gary,

    One thing I fail to understand with your recent cycle theories is the focus on the SPX. You won't short until you see the March lows get taken out in the SPX, even though they were already taken out in the RUT and COMPQ indices.

    Why is the emphasis on the SPX? Is it because it's the most followed index these days?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Jeff -- "And he is a smt member" -- WOW!

    Aaron -- already did. Will call you soon.

    Thanks everyone.

    ReplyDelete
  82. I cannot wait to feel gold bever back to regression.

    ReplyDelete
  83. 2 hours 15 minutes boys until emperor speaks

    ReplyDelete
  84. So far Gold has moved as expected when approaching the end of an IT cycle. Only remaining question is FOMC the top or is this daily cycle going to be a right translated cycle where it tests the all time high or makes a new high, before roling over. Either way, we're talking hours to days and little difference in price.

    ReplyDelete
  85. DX 240min http://bit.ly/j6Hxql

    ReplyDelete
  86. I agree Poly, good analysis.

    I don't see it making new highs with Benny announcing QE to end. Also the dollar is at/near support and it appears it doesn't want to go lower. Couple that with S0S and I see odds low of PMs higher.

    ReplyDelete
  87. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  88. yeah, valerio, your link on flickr is private, you need to make that photo public

    ReplyDelete
  89. Looks like the dolla wants to fill that 75.5 gap soon

    ReplyDelete
  90. I`ve eaten,
    makes good sense.

    No one man should have this much juice.

    ReplyDelete
  91. What is the market saying? IDK it never talks.

    Seems like it is saying...
    Appears not to want...

    ReplyDelete
  92. Would love to see the GLD close red today, that would be a huge signal.

    ReplyDelete
  93. I think we're getting the pullbacks expected now, just out...

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-to-end-qe2-as-it-signals-economic-worries-2011-06-22

    (note all the typos in this from this dimwit who tried to get this out asap)

    ReplyDelete
  94. .. or more will happen after the speech, or possibly not till tomorrow, or maybe, possibly not until next decade :)

    ReplyDelete
  95. Well hell, at least we'll be able to get to use the dolla for a little longer :)

    ReplyDelete
  96. If the Fed's comments are so negative then why are the miners trending higher ?

    ReplyDelete
  97. Hack,

    If gold rolls over into an intermediate decline, do you believe that the miners will continue to trend higher?

    ReplyDelete
  98. My current opinion is that the miners I follow like NGD and NSU have seen their lows. They were V-bottoms though, rather hard to trade. NGD is up 16% off the low I was watching off my screen just a few days ago.

    Still; I've seen it do this before where a significant bounce occurs and then it collapses again below the pre-bounce level. Very volatile.

    If it does behave that way again (and GDXJ etc.) there will be some happy people over here including me and there will be a lot of pissed people who were sucked in yet again.

    I bought a cylinder of N2O in anticipation of maniacal expressions of self congratulations. Come on cycles, show what yer worth!

    ReplyDelete
  99. Added 30% to original ZSL at a dollar less per share. Propably means silver is jumping up to 50 this week...

    ReplyDelete
  100. Gold having an intraday reversal and closing in the red after hitting highs would be the beat outcome for those shorting

    ReplyDelete
  101. Gold will retest its highs first.

    http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=482f799e-5784-442b-817b-4eba474ad9bd

    ReplyDelete
  102. Gary, I am unable to log in to the member site. Can you help

    ReplyDelete
  103. Jim,

    Gold didnt retest its highs in every other intermediate cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  104. William;

    I really don't care what happens next week or next month, I trade what is in front of me and right now my SLW, EXK and ANV have made significant gains the last three days. The pull back we just had offered too many bargains for me to pass up.

    ReplyDelete
  105. SLV just popped up on my sell screen! If it is about to ramp higher this will not stop it, but anything other than that and it is about to tank. It is maximally stretched to the upside. I doubled up on my puts.

    ReplyDelete
  106. thank you DG...bought myself a small position in ZSL

    ReplyDelete
  107. In the intermediate cycles ending 2/1/10 and 1/24/11 gold didnt retest the highs.

    ReplyDelete
  108. DG,
    Thank you. You are the man!

    ReplyDelete
  109. 86: I'm "the man" if SLV tanks now. Otherwise I'm" the moron." :-)

    ReplyDelete
  110. DG - I would imagine that SLV coming up "Sell" is unusual? When was the last time?

    Thanks very much.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Lol! I believe that`s called the double edged sword!

    ReplyDelete
  112. CB, you need to send Gary an e-mail with your info...

    ReplyDelete
  113. William, we watch and see then :)

    ReplyDelete
  114. Felix: It happened a few times during the run up into the parabola and I just ignored it (kept all my AGQ). Think of it as super-overbought. If you are starting a big bull run overbought is meaningless, but if you are in a bear move and just got too far during a bounce, it''s the place to short. Let's hope it's not the start of a big bull move!

    Before the crazy run it was rare and pretty accurate. Given everything else I thought it was worth acting on this time.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Did I blink and miss "The Speech"?
    Nothing seems to have changed....

    ReplyDelete
  116. Didn't he basically say that more asset purchases are ulikely - lowers chances of near term QE3? Thoughts?

    ReplyDelete
  117. Good call DG. I picked up a few SLV Oct. 32 puts myself @ $1.70.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Good call DG. I picked up a few SLV Oct. 32 puts myself @ $1.70.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Intraday reversal after gold hitting highs? Would be great....

    ReplyDelete
  120. DG, Mr. Miyagi,or...

    Having just read and digested "What is Options Delta" is going out to Oct far enough for a put on SLV. The next choice is Jan.

    Jenny

    ReplyDelete
  121. David, if I could jump in, way, way to far out to go January. Usually if you buy more than two months out, you are overpaying via time cost. I would imagine the expected downturn in in Silver will materialize by the middle of July to early August so perhaps August is fine. If you want to wait longer, September options should be available right after July Opex, but the move may have started by then.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Beautiful Day http://bit.ly/ipIst7

    ReplyDelete
  123. Cycles give you a major advantage when trading options and that's knowing time! We know the IT low should come by late July early Aug, so why pay more, buy Aug.

    ReplyDelete
  124. I am an options rookie compared to Romeo but agree that August is probably plenty and certainly September.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Thanks Romeo and Poly!

    Jenny

    ReplyDelete
  126. Yes, I added some OTM July before the FOMC this morning. My targets for the daily cycle were more than hit, now it's just a matter of time.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Thanks DG too. Now I find Big charts does not list any prices for August. Are they on TOS?

    Jenny

    ReplyDelete
  128. Poly,
    Care to take a stab at how far silver will go? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  129. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  130. DG,

    Thanks for the silver short signal. You are a real asset for the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Yeah DG,
    where can I get me one of them there silver shorter things man...:)

    ReplyDelete
  132. Is it me or was today the first red Fed day in two years?

    ReplyDelete
  133. Our TF trade set up from this morning looks like it may have played out and completed the 5th wave.

    There still is a chance that there is another push up, as our target this morning was 811ish and TF (rut futures) 808. It appears to be trading within a reverse sym triangle and is at the midpoint right now with some fibcluster support and a pivot sitting at 797.90.

    If buyers step in, they may freeze the TF, as shorts may be a little scared to jump short..and that would leave the door open for the 811/813 target.

    If we head south through the pivot..odds that the TF completed the 5th increases. If that is what happened, we have a turn date next week and they have been pretty reliable. In fact very reliable. 147 spx points high-low/low high on the turns since June 1 turn date.

    Anyhow..if the 5th is complete, I am expecting some choppy tape with a down bias into that turn date..with another rally ready to start-which will most likely run into the July turn dates. Yes, we have them weeks in advance..months actually :)

    From there, we need to look at the bigger picture, as there is a major turn date cluster in August, which I believe will mark the low
    (1120 spx?)

    the turn date are all recorded on the our blog..you just have to read through the post to see them. Good luck..G-

    http://marketspath.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  134. DG, how is SLV maximally stretched to the upside? Looks just past the middle of a new trendline, but that could be what your signal is saying. SLV will probably step back for a day or two.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Our TF (rut futures) road map has just about played out as planned. We were looking for it to make a new high which it did, but we were looking for 810ish as a target.

    It appears wave 5 completed and now we should see some choppy tape with a bias lower into our turn date next week.

    The turn dates have been very reliable and have produced over 147 points from high to low and low to high from the turn dates. This is not a tradable calculation, as many overlapped each other. But those were the points generated since the June 1st turn date.

    These dates are all documented on our free blog and we have been giving them out weeks in advance to our members. Yes, I have the turn dates already for the next month..and even August, which is where I see a major cluster of turn dates.

    When I see them pop up like that, it is usually a major low or high formed at that time. My guess is it will be a low. (spx 1120?) We will cross that bridge when we get there. For now, I am just drawing short term road maps off of the turn dates..And I fully expected this turn today. Good uck..G-

    Here is the blog with our previous dates.


    http://marketspath.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete
  136. Not even close to top of trendline on RUT.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Seemster. My signals are designed as a short term trading call. My approach is: give me a head start and I'll figure out the rest. I usually put in a break even stop after a 1% move in the item. Then I either win bigger or break even. The goal of trading is to not lose. Paul Tudor Jones made that point in the "Trader" movie someone posted the link to (Thanks, BTW!). If you place lots of bets and don't lose on most of them you will make an enormous amount of money. Nice head start in SLV so far...

    ReplyDelete
  138. SLV Daily Chart Update:

    http://screencast.com/t/8tUXtuhxJWZ

    ReplyDelete
  139. Harry, do you remember what happened last year when the FedSpeak occurred and the realization that QE2 was not NOW but ?? in the future? Maybe there was a slight delay before the IM decline occurred?

    ReplyDelete
  140. SLV was down four days in a row the last time it touched the top of the trend line. This time it has broken through the trend line and still not as oversold as last peak.

    ReplyDelete
  141. gann, great charts. Thanks for sharing.

    ReplyDelete
  142. THX.

    Something else it didn't Mention in the Chart.But i will share with you. is that, the Most repeated Number in the Bible is 3 and 7 .Today is the 7th Upday from the Recent Pivot Low in Silver. Now again , it may not Happen, But , Believe me when i say , i does Happen ALOT!we reverse after 7!

    I did Take a short Position in Silver ,Cause of it.

    Now. All i need , is Silver to Gap n Crap Tomorrow !

    ReplyDelete
  143. more quantitative easing is unlikely due to reduced deflation risks...

    ReplyDelete
  144. O.K. I am pretty loaded with shorts again after selling my longs the last two days. EUO and SLV (with a little LULU thanks to BobFromHawaii.) I expect to add a little each day. Still hoping to short China/FXI and to redo EEM.

    ReplyDelete
  145. DG,
    To clarify, have you taken any type of snp short? Thank you again for the silver heads up.

    ReplyDelete
  146. There are going to be a lot of Perma bulls cry'in the blues soon if my cycle count is correct :)

    ReplyDelete
  147. 86D: No, I am not short the S&P---and for no good reason, I might add. It's a no brainer, it's just that these others have given me good entry points: I got the sell on SLV today and have been in EUO for a while, all below 16.95. Whenever I want to short something and don't know what to do I do some SPY's

    ReplyDelete
  148. YUP... counting on it Gary! :)

    ReplyDelete
  149. Right there with you G-man, thank you for your persistent coaching

    ReplyDelete
  150. Fed Meeting August 2011 in Jackson Hole. (not yet scheduled by KC Fed - I checked their website).

    Bill Gross of PIMCO and many others expect QE 3 announcement at this years meeting.

    Could be a big disappointment to bulls this time around. We'll see.

    Leading up to meeting could be a "risk on" rally though - keep this in mind when you trade.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Gary,

    I hope your cycle count is correct or im going to be crying with the perma bulls.

    ReplyDelete
  152. Thx DJ, I picked up some ZSL after
    hours,hopefully :) not :(

    ReplyDelete
  153. Was a beautiful day. GDX bearkiss update http://bit.ly/jpKBFK .
    First time I shorted ZR this year Jimmy was screaming to go long..I shorted @16000 (weekly res) and quickly was south testing area 13000.

    ReplyDelete
  154. ZR weekly http://bit.ly/lL8grU 4Feb2011

    ReplyDelete
  155. valeriobri

    Your ZR weekly chart doesn't work...

    ReplyDelete
  156. "They" pushed up ZR like no tomorrow..my adrenaline was quite high...ALL THE WORLD was looking for 18000,19000 even more...something to remember..something that helps You in days like today..GL everybody, I'm out,until next week.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Good charts Vale, thanks for the input

    ReplyDelete
  158. Post Scriptum: Will be interesting to see Copper next days http://bit.ly/jRNOXy

    ReplyDelete
  159. Gary, for the sake of my put options I hope you're right. I still have eight weeks until expiration and at this rate I'll need every one. If I had slightly more testicular fortitude I might just stock up on more here...

    ReplyDelete
  160. Harry,
    Don't forget markets go down much faster than they go up.

    ReplyDelete
  161. Pimco's Gross says Fed to unveil QE3 in August at its Jackson Hole meeting:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-pimco-fed-gross-idUSTRE75L4L820110622

    ReplyDelete
  162. Good report Gary.

    We also have a likely rout on all risk assets coming soon and we should expect gold to get smashed with this event, along with it's natural move into a IT cycle low.

    But the setup coming in August are the ones you must be prepared to take advantage of. Bull market IT cycle lows are like a hanging pitch over the plate, you've got to swing for the fences. Throw in a possible QE3 in Aug/Sep and you're talking serious gains.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Edwin,

    40 years?!? Well in that case I understand as this is obviously a hobby for you rather then a method to increase your net worth. However, since you are a permabull and not here to make money any real money, if your going against Gary's game plan then can you please provide some evidence as to why or just keep it to yourself as some of us are here to keep our accounts in the black. There must be some numismatic forum that maybe better suited.

    ReplyDelete
  164. ^HUI index very close to 50EMA vs 200EMA "death cross" right now. GDX, GDXJ, GLDX have already got there. SIL still has 50EMA soem 4% above 200EMA but the gap is narrowing (a month ago it was nearly 10%)...

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.