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Tuesday, June 7, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A change has been made to the model portfolio.

92 comments:

  1. Hmm.. I guess S&P isn't expected to bounce a bit here?

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  2. Some advance notice of today's speech: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fed-just-telegraphed-not-expect-much-if-anything-bernankes-345pm-speech

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  3. Fib Cycles and Other Cycles are a Vibration in Time, and often do account for a Reaction in Price, Thing is, what type of Reaction could be Tricky, like to say , a 3% Pullback ...or a 10% Pullback,,,,or Maybe, this time there isn't going to be much of a Pullback at All..So i try to use all types of TA ,and the More Vibrations i get around a Certain Date the Better i feel in Taking a Bigger Position Ahead of a Potential Pivot in Price.

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  4. Mr M. - my thoughts exactly! Short term oversold, no?

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  5. Mr M. - my thoughts exactly! Short term oversold, no? I'm looking for an entry point but...

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  6. Sorry for repeats,computer trouble!

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  7. Bob Loves Hawaii (or others).. when watching charts for short term (1-2 weeks) overbought or oversold conditions in order to add or subtract from positions, what settings would one use for the RSI, Stochastics, and Oscillators on daily charts...

    Thanks in advance..

    M

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  8. Gann

    I've noticed some of the true masters of cycles have been able to time their entry's and exits on their cycle turn dates. I was wondering if you'd been able to crack a system like this with the fib dates. Most people seem to just wait for confirmation on their dates. The fib's seem to give so many possible turns it's more like a shotgun approach.

    Maybe I just haven't spent enough time to appreciate them. The time and price on the major indicies seems a bit more reliable.

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  9. discreet S...
    We had 4 days of good downside, a little bounce on the way down wouldn't be uncommon although it would not last longer than a day or so, I don't know what Benny's going to yap about in his chit-chat but as you can see, action is hesitant today.

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  10. Michael

    Can I suggest you start with the default settings in the software you are using and back test them over the chart/stock/commodity/index/whatever you are looking at to see if it predicts a turn in price and then start changing the settings and back test each one until you find the best setting for picking tops & bottoms on that particular chart.

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  11. S Hound,,

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folders/Jing/media/2c80fb33-ac76-41b6-88a9-0e2f94bf5f23



    Here is a chart i did BACK In
    Early Jan ,2010. A True Gann Masterpiece ,i had lots of Cycles and Other TA ( BOTH GANN and other ) Pointing to the importance of Jan 19th,2010,,,,

    Again when the market does nothing but continue to go up, and you make a Calll for a Top,,,many people cant wait for the Call to Fail and Rag on you,,, so at times i am not sure why i Publicly post Pivots in Time,and Possibly set my self up for ridicule... But , to me ,,, there is no bigger High and getting a Turn date right at exactly to Top Or Bottom.

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  12. Gann360,
    No one is ridiculing you here.

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  13. The beauty of this Chart , is that both Dates Jan 12 and Jan 19 came into Play . The jan.12th was the original top, than the market (spx) corrected and retested pierced on exactly the 19th,,,Simply amazing to me,,, of course this chart took countless hours to Make,,,changing price into Time, and Time into Price...

    but for me,,, when i get lost into TA,Gann,, i could spend hours and Hours, and it feels like minutes...

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  14. Gann360, sounds like you really love it! good on ya :o)

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  15. Unless I'm high on sawdust, gold & silver are looking tired here, even on Kitco's boards there far less yapping as to how high it will go.

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  16. Gann

    A truely beautiful piece of time and price analysis and well done. I prefer to use the Nov 2008 capitulation low as the significant low as you have but I won't bore you with my amateurish attempts at cycles.

    Just remember that for every person that speaks out to knock your efforts there is one that says nothing who would agree, the rest don't matter.

    Do you have an opinion on Armstrongs date on the 13th?

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  17. shorts you better be on watch because a reversal is a brewing.

    can we see a break of the USD index to 72.8?

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  18. Looking to see if this dead cat bounce / rally can fill the gap on the QQQ - 57.20, IWM - 82, SPY - 131.70. Then I'll short the Russell.

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  19. Edwin, if 1295 on the SnP can give in, 1310 should be the next target...

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  20. Gary,
    How do you use laptop in Switzerland ? do you need power converter?

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  21. aaron - the next target is 1313 on the SPX.

    Right now it's still in unhealthy territory.

    So dead cat bounce yeah we can term it that _currently_


    In the big picture of things. The SPX is over it's mid cycle and due for a decline.

    I won't be pressing longs that hard until October. But buying small positions on some big names of the DOW 30 on down weeks. Because you never know..

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  22. BB crash on XLF/FAS yesterday if anyone cares...

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  23. is Armstrong still in Jail ?

    i dont follow him,

    Anyways , i know he likes using Pi Cycle. Funny you say the 12/13 th of June . cause i have a Little vibration this weekend as well, so is he calling for a Top ( or should i say .another leg down to start shortly ?

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  24. Armstrong is out. Pretty impressive to come up with his stuff via a type writer, charts and pencils. His turn dates have been ok, his calls in directions have been completely off as of late.

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  25. if you believe in cycles,

    one can short the stock market and the gold market at this juncture. it's very late in the game for them to go long.

    be aware come august for gold
    be aware come october for stocks

    those are the times I think will be intermediate changes.

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  26. If the SnP can muster a rally, there is a good chance it will pull up commodities (including gold and silver) with it.

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  27. Gann,
    Check out Bill Downey's short write up on the Economic Confidence Model. He has some great charts too.

    http://www.goldtrends.net/

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  28. aaron - spx - gold silver etc. are dependant on currency and bond market movements.

    they are the last to move. stay in tune with the fx market for a leading indicator.

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  29. Edwin, agreed.
    I started out as a currency trader.
    Im just wondering if the Euro can make it to 148, all depending on the Euro meeting coming up on Wed/Thurs. This is indeed all noise.

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  30. aaron - yup. lets see how this plays out.

    i'm keeping an open mind.

    but the fed, ecb and the imf are crooked. so things don't always go according to plan.

    someone call t. geitner, ben, and the bilderberg group they can probably tell us where this market is going.

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  31. Armstrong was released earlier this year and he's already formulating his appeal lol.

    June 13th is the date for his 8.6 year economic low or the end of the current 8.6 year cycle. He suggests whatever commodity or market or economy is putting is a low during this week will be the bull market in the next 8.6 year cycle. Have to admit his letters are packed with a bit more info now he's been released. And plenty of anti government.

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  32. So Edwin,

    When you said, "shorts you better be on watch because a reversal is a brewing", you were speaking about the dollar?

    I'm short SLV, GLD and QQQ, so you caught me up short, so to speak.

    Best,
    Le Fou

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  33. Regarding Armstrong's call - can someone please explain to me what could possibly be putting in "the low" on June13? Nearly everything is near its highs. The only possible thing that could be nearing a "low" would be the US dollar.

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  34. Dan, his calls for lows/highs have been off lately.

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  35. Here are Armstrong's last 2 articles (that I know of).

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/how%20and%20when%2003-01-2011.pdf

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/So%20You%20Thought%20the%20Sovereign%20Debt%20Crisis%20was%20Over%2005-10-2011.pdf

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  36. Le Fou - i'm referring to a reversal in the stock market. it's brewing for tomorrow.

    long term cycle though, stock and gold are past the mid point and will dwindle down. so this can be a counter rally brewing.

    so one can look at this as a warning to collect. if you're a day trader.

    or an opp to short even more when the rally arrives.

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  37. Thinking of buying some puts on Visa but otherwise I've only got my July 32 SLV puts and cash is the rest.
    I'll give Bernie a chance to yap and see where we go from there, at this point I'd rather chase than be on the wrong side.

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  38. i'm long gold and gov't bonds currently.

    yeah go hand an hand right.. haha

    but i have been watching them like a hawk.

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  39. You can find Armstrongs articles posted at this site as they are released. Sort of his "unofficial" site.

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  40. Edwin,

    We are up today after several down days so if we are reversing then it's started today already, no?

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  41. Edwin,

    So you said..

    "one can short the stock market and the gold market at this juncture. it's very late in the game for them to go long. "

    Then a few post later...

    "i'm long gold and gov't bonds currently."

    So i assume you don't believe in Cycles and if you do, why are you trading against your own thoughts.

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  42. MrMiyagi-san,
    A little while back you wrote:
    "Most times I'll take a day or overnight trade for a 150-400$ profit."
    I've been pondering this and you're a model for the trading skills I would like to develop. I was wondering how you developed your strategy? Especially for overnight trading?
    Thanks for sharing. Much appreciated.
    If you care to expand off-line: mightymarge@gmail.com

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  43. Anybody shorting at these levels or waiting thinking this rally will be at least a couple of days affair?

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  44. Mighty,
    I'll write you an email, damn myself for deleting one that I wrote to Hot Rod (cough cough... RJ) a while back with links and stuff!

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  45. Ryan: I covered amy SPY and sold my SPY puts on the mid-morning pullback to up 50. I believe this will last at least until the end of the day tomorrow and will wait to reshort then.

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  46. Ryan,
    I think there might be another day or so of this.
    I'm waiting for Benny to speak, I don't know if the fact it's at 3:45, 15 minutes before the close has a significance. Is it so that there's no mass seloff? No time for the common shlub to interpret the doublespeak? Or is it to start a feel-good rally?

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  47. Armstrong's system is simple, from what I can tell. You just look in retrospect what "turned" and buy/sell that in the past. There's always something you can use to validate the horoscope after the fact.

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  48. MrMiyagi, my wife runs on Swiss chocolate, too!

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  49. DG and MrMiyagi,
    Thanks for the update. I will be patient and continue to watch.

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  50. Anyone know where Mr. Bernanke's speech can be viewed on-line? Thanks

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  51. I'm considering adding to my EUO calls. We are now on day 24 of this cycle. I'm hoping to catch a bottom with a tiny addition and then add on the swing. Gold is not really responding to the new low today, but I'm just not sure what Uncle Bennie is gonna do to the dollar when his mouth opens.

    Note: this is not the same William that was asking about options earlier

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  52. I think the euro must be stronger because Gary and the group are converting so many dollars...

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  53. Power Corrupt,

    Gary and Co are buying CHF and selling $...With the current FX level, Gary must be allucinating when he is seen the price of a margarita out there!!
    FYI, in London ( UK) full tank of gas is now costing $ 130 !!!

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  54. me and my 3 kids and 2 dogs? you must be kidding...No, I will drive till we run out of either gas or cash, whichever comes first!!

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  55. Bloomberg will show/comment on Nanke's speech

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  56. RJ and Mr. Myagi, Can you also share your strategy for day/overnight trades.
    duckcrossing@aol.com

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  57. Last week's fillup cost us $76C. This used to be $50C. Just for a Sunfire....

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  58. ...at ease,
    You're lucky, I just wrote to Mighty and actually kept the sent e-mail.

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  59. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  60. MM, while you're at it, if you don't mind, I would like to see your strategy as well. Very much appreciated.

    pavilionfund@gmail.com

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  61. Sure Felix,
    It's not really much but if it helps you then that's fine.
    Amateurish by other traders' standards here!

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  62. Domo arigato, Miyagisan.

    (deleted prior w email)

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  63. Mr M said,

    "It's not really much but if it helps you then that's fine.
    Amateurish by other traders' standards here!"

    Hey Mr.M, I think you do just fine here ( and I enjoy your posts too)! If you have developed a somewhat personal style or "thing" that you are using from time to time and it makes you money here and there -thats not amateurish.

    Amatuerish looks more red than green :)

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  64. Alex,
    right now I feel like a real big amateur in all Red. LOL

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  65. Gary,
    was that a short you placed???

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  66. ...wait, I see a littel twinkle of green in QQQ and SPY trying to shine through.

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  67. So everything just went red except gold and silver....

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  68. SnP taking it on the chin...I guess adding to my short will have to wait for now

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  69. Aw shucks, thanks for the kind words, gee willikers...

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  70. Just like a traffic light At Ease ,
    The red may just turn green and you're a pro again

    And Bernanke is speaking, and says the Gov't needs to act quickly to help long term weak economy. HHMMM

    And now he's addressing commodity prices

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  71. Watch the the xxxx say something big since the market is now closed (but futures still open.)

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  72. so far you could summarize his comments arithmetically as

    1 + (-1) = 0

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  73. Driver, the text of the speech was published before his actual speech. No surprises.

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  74. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/06/07/bernanke-recovery-should-pick-up/

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  75. Well, that sucked! It would have been nice to get even one up day so we could form a swing high, or better yet a bear flag to add positions into as it breaks down. Now what. Gotta just add a smidge more short into weakness. Or i could wait until the XLE breaks down. Hmmmm, decisions, decisions.

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  76. Blogger Felix said...

    so far you could summarize his comments arithmetically as

    1 + (-1) = 0

    June 7, 2011 1:05 PM

    Also...

    Any inflationary price increases in commodities = not my fault.

    Improvement in the economy is expected in the 2nd half of the yr= Yes, I did that !

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  77. Away from the tube. I'm gathering brother Ben isn't too inspiring.

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  78. MrMiyagi,
    I thought you asked this market to just get it over with! I don't think it's cooperating... just wants to grind us slowly down.
    Thanks for sharing your insight and skills, I have so much to learn with this trading and would like to be able to feel more confident in getting in and out of trades. I have done some successfully, however find myself knee jerking to experts and usually sell too soon, just to avoid a loss, I cut and run. So have to learn to time better on exits.

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  79. talked exactly both sides, although I might weight it *slightly* heavier on "watching inflation short-term" over "accomodative monetary policy still needed", so it *could* be part of the news' explanation for the coming cyclical commodities fall/ dollar rally

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  80. ..at ease,
    I DO want this PM market to drop and get it over with! It's getting annoying!

    With time, you'll get more and more comfortable, you might even time the shit out of an entry/exit.

    When I post my "massive" 100-200$ trades here, it's not to brag (nyuk nyuk), it's just to give an idea here and there.

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  81. All right.. off to the basement for more renovations, catch you all later at night or tomorrow.

    ps, I have no clue what Benny said...

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  82. If you really want to know what Bernanke said:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-bernankes-speech-on-economy-2011-06-07?link=MW_latest_news

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  83. EricH said"So i assume you don't believe in Cycles and if you do, why are you trading against your own thoughts."

    i already had these positions from early this year Feb and haven't been knocked out yet.

    I thought the PM sell down in May was a little excessive. I knew there was going to be a weekly trendline collect before going into the weekend.

    But the sell down after Osama's capture was exasberated due to high amount of margin raises in silver. Kind of spooked people. Anyways my buy in was from 1400 so I had room.

    I have raised my gold position stop to 1525.

    Was hoping for a 1600 collect this week but anyways, i know it's not working correctly because there aren't many buyers left in this game. All packed in and going to Swissland selling/shorting. :p

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  84. Gary, you were asking about candlestick charts a while back. Take a look at Finviz.com.

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