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Wednesday, June 15, 2011

GOLD CRAWL

I'm assuming that gold's latest cycle low was the mild pullback on June 2. If that's the case then gold is now in a left translated daily cycle that topped in only two days. It's also starting to form a crawling pattern along the 50 DMA.




Crawling patterns are usually continuation patterns and when they break down they tend to move aggressively down to the 200 day moving average.

Considering that gold is now 20 weeks into it's intermediate cycle, has formed a weekly swing high, and the extreme weakness in the mining sector, I think the odds are high the crawl is going to break down soon and the aggressive part of the intermediate degree correction will begin.
Posted by at

314 comments:

  1. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 4:14 AM

    Can anyone tell me how to post a second price chart on TOS ie. the S&P on top and the dollar on the bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  2. AlpineJune 15, 2011 at 4:16 AM

    QUESTION:

    How can I set up a twitter account
    with tweety mail that will notify me via email whenever a portfolio change gets posted by Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 4:18 AM

    In Prophet, I used to click on chart settings/comparison chart and it'd do what you're attempting. Other option is clicking on grid charts, but that will default to four charts vs. two. However, you can just copy/paste with jinga the two charts you want at that point.

    ReplyDelete
  4. ShawkJune 15, 2011 at 4:30 AM

    Hey Gary,

    On the SPX chart, go to edit studies and look for comparison, which list a number of different securities. Pick any of them and add study. Then go into the properties and you can change where it says "secondary security" to whatever you want like $dxy. Then you can change the graph where it says "comparison style" to line, bar or candle. Also I usually uncheck "upper subgraph" on the options to the right and it puts it on the bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  5. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 4:40 AM

    OK, now is there a way to expand the lower chart so it's not so small and also get rid of the volume chart that separates the two?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Turning JapaneseJune 15, 2011 at 4:43 AM

    Some useful info for those concerned with EUR/USD and its impact on the markets in the coming months.

    Through my job, I have access to the expensive sell-side publication, FX Week. At the back of each report it publishes weekly updated individual and consensus forecasts by all the top FX dealers and brokers.

    Historically, the consensus forecasts have been off only slightly in magnitude, but virtually never off in overall direction for EUR/USD, and in the past couple of years, forecasts have served as a base (lows) for spot more than an average or ceiling (meaning forecasts have been consistently below spot, but nearly always eventually drag it down for at least a tag of the one and three month forecasts).

    Here are the latest forecasts:

    1 month: 1.4274
    3 months: 1.4090
    12 months: 1.3695

    Remember, these could be forecasted even lower (or higher) each week, so I will try and post again if I see any significant changes.

    ReplyDelete
  7. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 4:56 AM

    Turning Japanese,
    Super cool! Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  8. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 4:56 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  9. SkepticSquirrelJune 15, 2011 at 4:58 AM

    Gary RE: Charts,

    Looking at the TOS charts on the upper right by "symbols", "reset" etc. you will see a yellow outlined box that allows you to select any number of charts to viewed at one time. Simply click on the box to expand the drop down, then click on the very upper left box and drag the cursor around to create a custom chart grid.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SkepticSquirrelJune 15, 2011 at 5:02 AM

    Re: charts, correction. Once the box is expanded you don't have to click until you have your grid configuration that you want. The grid lights up as you move your mouse around.

    ReplyDelete
  11. KevinJune 15, 2011 at 5:08 AM

    Nice sharing Turning. I appreciate it.

    My idea for short sale of the month: Greek banks. Anybody on that action?

    ReplyDelete
  12. CMTJune 15, 2011 at 5:08 AM

    Turning Japanese:

    We may get the 1.4274 today at this rate!

    ReplyDelete
  13. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 5:10 AM

    The more time goes by, the more I feel how stockcharts really threw a wrench in the gears. I just about jumped on the spring special banswagon too.

    ReplyDelete
  14. ShawkJune 15, 2011 at 5:21 AM

    You'd have to remove any other subcharts in the edit studies if don't want them visible.

    Also under the style menu there are tabs for equities, options, futures and forex. On those tabs there is a setting for "show volume subgraph" and those can toggled on and off a long with other settings such as open interest or extended session charting

    ReplyDelete
  15. AaronJune 15, 2011 at 5:23 AM

    Thats a nice dollar rally, Euro getting crushed in the process.

    ReplyDelete
  16. AaronJune 15, 2011 at 5:24 AM

    All things considered, oil is holding well.

    ReplyDelete
  17. ValeriobrlJune 15, 2011 at 5:31 AM

    Nice post.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Wav_ridahJune 15, 2011 at 5:35 AM

    Latest Armstrong article

    http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/June13th%2014th%20Turning%20Point%202011.45%2006-14-2011.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  19. AaronJune 15, 2011 at 5:38 AM

    This market must be a day traders dream come true.

    ReplyDelete
  20. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 5:39 AM

    From what I've seen Armstrong isn't very accurate. I think I'll stick with my version of cycles... at least they work most of the time.

    ReplyDelete
  21. ALEXJune 15, 2011 at 5:41 AM

    Gary

    Its times like this that cycles really help, because the fact that the dollar was so early in its daily cycle helped many of us not to get suckered into long positions yesterday ( metals or SPX), despite seemingly oversold conditions.

    It now looks like the mini bull flag on the dollar broke out overnight, but even then it would have been selling the gap down this a.m. if one went long yesterday. The addition of cycles in my analysis has greatly added to 'timing' my trades. Thx

    ReplyDelete
  22. JEFFtheFLEAJune 15, 2011 at 5:44 AM

    what is the index we use to short the snp 500?

    ReplyDelete
  23. AaronJune 15, 2011 at 5:47 AM

    Armstrong's paper seems a lot nicer now that he has access to more than a type writer out of a prison cell.

    ReplyDelete
  24. ScottJune 15, 2011 at 5:54 AM

    I use SH - Proshares Short S&P

    ReplyDelete
  25. PolyJune 15, 2011 at 5:59 AM

    Today should clearly highlight again, that unless you're a very experienced trader, the real money is to be made focusing and concentrating on the primary trend. Which of course, for now, is on the short side.
    Buying your stake early on trend change quickly gives you strong hand status and then sitting tight negates the violent bull rallies all too common in a declining market.

    We're a maximum of 8 weeks from a gold IT cycle low, don't forget where the real money is to be made.

    Good day to all.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Turning JapaneseJune 15, 2011 at 6:00 AM

    You're welcome everyone. Hope it helps.

    Forgot to post that those forecasts are from June 10th.

    ReplyDelete
  27. ...at easeJune 15, 2011 at 6:00 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  28. ALEXJune 15, 2011 at 6:02 AM

    Jeff

    have you seen "SH" ticker?

    ReplyDelete
  29. SeanJune 15, 2011 at 6:08 AM

    Poly, isn't gold and silver holding up well in the futures given the strength of the $ rally?

    ReplyDelete
  30. ALEXJune 15, 2011 at 6:09 AM

    I wanted to point out two charts with regards to the SPX correction.

    The first is a POSSIBLE price target if this is an A-B-C move( the price move from A to B should repeat from C to D). I drew this Friday, June 10th as a basic guide. I actually thought a target of 1226 soon wasnt crazy...here's why-

    http://www.screencast.com/t/MnYgm4hbvP

    This one is for POLY, who has stuck with his short position with solid conviction despite bounces, and rightly so...just wanted to mention this, as a guide for all of us -

    http://www.screencast.com/t/uHM53QQH

    ReplyDelete
  31. Wav_ridahJune 15, 2011 at 6:11 AM

    Gary,
    Armstrong's reading are great, his cycles not so much. But one of his old subs Bill Downey is pretty sharp. I'm sure you heard of Goldtrends.net. FWIW Downey's calls are identical to yours at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
  32. JEFFtheFLEAJune 15, 2011 at 6:17 AM

    Thanks alex

    ReplyDelete
  33. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 6:19 AM

    Sean,
    Give it time. The dollar is only on day 6 of it's cycle. It should have 10 or more days left in this rally. Gold is at the beginning of it's cycle. At some point the pressure from a steadily rising dollar is going to drive gold down into it's intermediate low.

    Lately it seems to come suddenly as buyers give up causing a very rapid deterioration in price in a very short time span.

    ReplyDelete
  34. SeanJune 15, 2011 at 6:25 AM

    Thanks, Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  35. PolyJune 15, 2011 at 6:26 AM

    "Poly, isn't gold and silver holding up well in the futures given the strength of the $ rally?"

    Yes and no. It's more of a Euro drop than Dollar rally, for now at least, but of course the dollar index is more than 50% Euro weighted.
    Gold has held up well due to its perceived safety. Gary is 100% correct though, gold will soon move down $100+ to find it's IT low, don't see how we avoid that.

    Although I would never short gold and I'm leaning towards a "normal IT cycle correction, one that should find support around the 175 DMA or so.

    Now that Gold is in it's 11th year of a bull and the world economy getting ever deeper in crises, we need to begin adjusting our expectations on gold price and movement to reflect it's maturing bull status. Look at past bull markets and notice the velocity and volatility of the move when it begins entering the latter stages!

    ReplyDelete
  36. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 6:31 AM

    Thanks Poly. You and Gary and others like you are special and many of us owe you greatly.

    ReplyDelete
  37. SeanJune 15, 2011 at 6:35 AM

    Great insight, Poly. Many thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  38. AaronJune 15, 2011 at 6:35 AM

    Gold is truly impressive

    ReplyDelete
  39. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 6:38 AM

    Gold is popping, completely resisting the rising dollar today.

    ReplyDelete
  40. traderladyJune 15, 2011 at 6:39 AM

    ALEX: Thank you for the charts.

    Gary and Poly: All your insight is sooo helpful.

    JEFF: I use SH as I can hold long time without decay of the double just
    as Gary shorts the SPY.

    SB: Miss you! lol

    ReplyDelete
  41. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 6:39 AM

    $ up, Gold Up...Interesting...

    ReplyDelete
  42. ALEXJune 15, 2011 at 6:40 AM

    In addition -

    Today and yesterday was also the release of P.P.I. and C.P.I. #'s .
    They didnt indicate strong inflation ( but most know the numbers are rigged...food prices are soaring, etc) so they keep possible inflation worries in the back of the mind-- so reminders of inflation and quite violent Greece riots on T.V. could cause many to still view Gold as a safe haven also.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Turning JapaneseJune 15, 2011 at 6:53 AM

    If anyone can make heads or tails from gold over the last few weeks, I am all ears.

    Everytime it looks ready to drop off and start a cascading fall into an IT low, it rallies $15-20 in a matter of minutes. I'm not short, but still tough to watch 'cause I want some cheap gold!

    ReplyDelete
  44. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 6:58 AM

    TJ,

    I hear you, gold just went from 1521 to 1535 in 10 minutes

    ReplyDelete
  45. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 7:00 AM

    Gary,

    Who and how are they buying to raise gold $10-$15 within two 5 minute candles?

    ReplyDelete
  46. oa92000June 15, 2011 at 7:05 AM

    Greek debt worries weigh on stock futures

    ReplyDelete
  47. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 7:14 AM

    Anyone hear any news causing gold to pop within 10 minutes?

    ReplyDelete
  48. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 7:15 AM

    Must be the conspiracy gold bugs propping it up :)

    ReplyDelete
  49. TommyDJune 15, 2011 at 7:17 AM

    Gary and All,
    Somebody look at the 1 minute chart of TBF and tell me how big an order that was at 10:04ish. This is a 1X the 20+ treasuries...
    Interesting to me at the moment.... Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  50. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 7:27 AM

    Tommy,

    If you take a look at a 1 mun chart of the Dollar you can see the dollar sold off hard at the same time.

    ReplyDelete
  51. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 7:31 AM

    Gary,

    Who are the conspiracy gold bugs? :o

    ReplyDelete
  52. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 7:41 AM

    Gary,

    Where, if any, do you get your news on Gold from?

    ReplyDelete
  53. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    I don't spend my time trying to tie market movements to news. I just play the cycles.

    ReplyDelete
  54. TommyDJune 15, 2011 at 7:44 AM

    William,
    The dollar bottomed around 10:00. It's on a .20 cent slide from 8:30 just up to 9:45ish... Dollar not the issue.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Gann360June 15, 2011 at 7:52 AM

    Possible short term resistance Silver $ 35.25

    http://screencast.com/t/q6OE13QptmbI

    ReplyDelete
  56. HaggertyJune 15, 2011 at 7:52 AM

    I guess gold doesn't want to cooperate here. Hope this is just a head fake to get the bulls in.

    ReplyDelete
  57. DocjohnJune 15, 2011 at 7:53 AM

    William

    Gary was kidding. He doesn't buy the conspiracy theories.

    ReplyDelete
  58. T.J. RandJune 15, 2011 at 7:54 AM

    Gary-

    Does the Blees of 100 on silver and very bullish (for rises in the metal) sentiment at all dampen the strength of the link between gold and silver? Gold's sentiment/Blees ratings are much more neutral. Left to it's own devices, silver has the sentiment underpinnings for a nice move up.

    I'm personally betting that Silver falls, but am concerned by the sentiment/Blees readings.

    ReplyDelete
  59. DocjohnJune 15, 2011 at 7:55 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  60. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 7:55 AM

    Tommy D,
    465,375

    ReplyDelete
  61. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 7:56 AM

    Tommy,

    Im not talking about the dollar bottom, if you look at a 1 min chart you can see an extreme volume spike in both the TBF and Dollar minutes apart.

    ReplyDelete
  62. DGJune 15, 2011 at 8:02 AM

    My thought for the day: Go euro!

    I shorted a little more into this bounce (EEM). Disappointing about oil, but I agree with Gary that it will just take a little time for the deflationary fears and dollar-rally pressure to really take hold. No way we have a weak economy and high oil prices.

    ReplyDelete
  63. TommyDJune 15, 2011 at 8:02 AM

    William,

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND

    What chart are you viewing? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  64. MoneymanJune 15, 2011 at 8:07 AM

    DG

    Im long the dollar..Nice call there from you and Gary..

    So you think this is just the beginning and the decline for the euro will remain?

    ReplyDelete
  65. PSTJune 15, 2011 at 8:08 AM

    Tommy,
    You are probably aware of this, but TBF is short the 20 yr. treasury.

    There is a rumor circulating that the Fed, as part of their next easing policy, will look to cap the yield on shorter term treasuries, while encouraging (selling their inventory) the long end of the curve to rise. Many people are speculating that they will probably target the 10 year to cap, but Bill Gross was out tweeting yesterday that the Fed will focus on capping 2-3 year treasury yields instead.

    My guess is that, if there is any truth to this rumor, people might be trying to create some type of curve steepener (long ST treasuries and short LT treasuries), which was a successful trade for Julian Robertson during 2008.

    ReplyDelete
  66. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 8:12 AM

    Tommy,

    Im viewing the dollar index futures. /dx

    ReplyDelete
  67. ValeriobrlJune 15, 2011 at 8:12 AM

    DBP P&F daily http://www.flickr.com/photos/valeriobr/5836323796/sizes/o/in/photostream/

    ReplyDelete
  68. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 8:16 AM

    Today is one of those days that gold could care less what the dollar is doing. If this continues for a couple days it looks like gold is getting a bounce off of the intermediate cycle lower trendline.

    ReplyDelete
  69. DGJune 15, 2011 at 8:17 AM

    Moneyman: Yep. This has just started. I plan to sell my EUO in the low to mid 20's or when there are a number of "The Euro Can't Survive" headlines, whichever comes first.

    ReplyDelete
  70. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 8:20 AM

    William,
    Just wondering; how many lines a day are you up to? :)

    ReplyDelete
  71. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 8:21 AM

    86,

    What's that supposed to mean?

    ReplyDelete
  72. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 8:27 AM

    Gann,

    Are you looking for a possible short entry to SLV? If so, any ideas in mind?

    Thx

    ReplyDelete
  73. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 8:32 AM

    Your Zeal is admirable! Just funning.

    ReplyDelete
  74. RyanJune 15, 2011 at 8:32 AM

    DG,
    Thanks, please post when you sell your EUO. Following you on that one and looking good so far!

    ReplyDelete
  75. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 8:35 AM

    86,

    I know your funning, did I sound offended and like I didnt know what the hell you meant....lol???

    ReplyDelete
  76. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 8:36 AM

    DG, See what you started, im following you on that one also.

    ReplyDelete
  77. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 8:37 AM

    I`m with ya`!

    ReplyDelete
  78. JRealityJune 15, 2011 at 8:39 AM

    Gary taking Beanie's money today! :-)

    ReplyDelete
  79. ...at easeJune 15, 2011 at 8:43 AM

    Gary,
    Bought in yesterday and seeing nice profits coming in.
    We still moving on our model portfolio?
    Just checking before I leave for the airport.
    Beautiful pics from your Matterhorn trip!
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  80. MoneymanJune 15, 2011 at 8:47 AM

    DG

    Oki..Thanks for the answer..:-)

    Im long US dollar thanks to you guys..

    It's such a mess in greece and this makes it just a matter of time before problems arise in Portugal, Ireland and Spain..

    I read that the primeminister in Greece may resign and some kind of unity government may form?!?!

    That type of government are usually formed in wartime..

    Actually kind of scary!!

    ReplyDelete
  81. 86d4lifeJune 15, 2011 at 8:52 AM

    EUO is just Smokin`

    ReplyDelete
  82. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 8:55 AM

    The dollar blasted off so hard my daily candle's top wick is in the candle and the high is reading .20cents lower than the current high...anyone ever have this problem in ThinkorSwim?

    ReplyDelete
  83. Gann360June 15, 2011 at 8:55 AM

    Wanted to add , to my Silver short at $35.25 . but that never got Hit .Yet...

    Update 10Min SLV :

    http://screencast.com/t/FdmYO3TIi6G9

    ReplyDelete
  84. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:00 AM

    DUST doing well today, GDM is down 19+

    ReplyDelete
  85. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 9:07 AM

    Thanks for update GANN...

    ReplyDelete
  86. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:13 AM

    This blog is invaluable, the input from everyone and the way everyone helps each other is amazing.

    ReplyDelete
  87. PolyJune 15, 2011 at 9:19 AM

    Buckle up

    ReplyDelete
  88. DGJune 15, 2011 at 9:20 AM

    Careful about adding now. Just when it emotionally feels like "Wow! This is great!" is when bear rallies start. Frankly, I think it's unlikely as we just rallied yesterday, but it's a good habit to pause when you get excited about how you are doing. We should all be short already (if we have been intending to be) and now is a time to sit. If they crash---great! You are there. If they erode and then bounce, you can short the bounce. With strong hand status it doesn't matter. Just like the long side, cover when the timing band for the IT low is upon us. Go take a nap!

    ReplyDelete
  89. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:23 AM

    The dollar is giving the finger to shorts.

    ReplyDelete
  90. NomenJune 15, 2011 at 9:27 AM

    DG, that's fantastic and perfectly timed advice!

    William, you are right sir, Gary is a great coach and genius cycle master but he has created a blog atmosphere where all these other great coaches come together, really awesome.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Wav_ridahJune 15, 2011 at 9:28 AM

    Today is insane. I may have been long pm at this point if I had not found this sight. Mahalo Gary and SMTers.

    ReplyDelete
  92. DGJune 15, 2011 at 9:30 AM

    Felix: I have so many battle scars I look like a Frankenstein monster. Seems sad not to try to help others avoid a few cuts here and there. Now is a time to just smile.

    ReplyDelete
  93. ...at easeJune 15, 2011 at 9:30 AM

    Thanks DG! you answered my question. Will ride. Have to catch my flight so missing the rest of todays action. Geesh, just when something starts moving. LOL

    ReplyDelete
  94. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:35 AM

    DG,

    You are much appreciated, im sure all would agree.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Driven!June 15, 2011 at 9:37 AM

    Gary, can you please place a link to your blog from the premium site...it will be more convenient

    ReplyDelete
  96. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 9:37 AM

    Holy banana, the dollar is going ballistic

    ReplyDelete
  97. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:41 AM

    Gary,

    Is there any relation between the dollars price and gold's...in other words, if the dollar is at a certain price should gold be at a certain price?

    ReplyDelete
  98. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:44 AM

    Anyone know of a more profitable vehicle to go long the dollar than UUP, the dollar is up over a point today and UUP is up .30?

    ReplyDelete
  99. NomenJune 15, 2011 at 9:45 AM

    Precious metals traders attempt to discover the currency cost of the metals in throughout the trading day based on many factors, in recent years especially on commodities inflation or deflation trending, depending on Federal monetary liquidity policy.

    ReplyDelete
  100. nivenJune 15, 2011 at 9:46 AM

    William,

    you can buy the euo instead

    ReplyDelete
  101. DGJune 15, 2011 at 9:47 AM

    William: EUO is over 50% inversely correlated with the dollar. Also, here's a great url that has all ETF's sorted and searchable:

    http://www.etftips.com/

    ReplyDelete
  102. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:48 AM

    Im in EUO. Thanks guys.

    ReplyDelete
  103. HaggertyJune 15, 2011 at 9:50 AM

    Man I wonder what tomorrow is going to look like.

    ReplyDelete
  104. gold silver trollJune 15, 2011 at 9:52 AM

    gold and silver continuing to move around aimlessly...

    ReplyDelete
  105. NJJune 15, 2011 at 9:54 AM

    DG:

    I got in small in EUO as well around 17 yesterday. Really appreciate yours, Poly's and several others ideas and invaluable insights!

    ReplyDelete
  106. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 9:55 AM

    DG,

    Ok I dumped my UUP today. Im going to go through that etf site. What other etf's are you in now?

    ReplyDelete
  107. KakoJune 15, 2011 at 9:58 AM

    Good call on EUO DG

    Please keep us posted :)

    ReplyDelete
  108. DGJune 15, 2011 at 10:04 AM

    William: I am short EEM and SPY, long DUG, and have puts on USO and SLV. EUO is my heaviest position and oil is a close second. I am looking to add on bounces after this mini-crash is done.

    ReplyDelete
  109. DGJune 15, 2011 at 10:06 AM

    Gary: Very nice work on the dollar. I could not have gotten so large or have timed this as well without your cycle work. I owe you a burrito (I'm still trying to figure out how to fax the damn things!)

    ReplyDelete
  110. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 10:07 AM

    DG, when you are shorting oil, do you not fear the geopolitical instability of the oil producing countries? That is to say, an event spiking the price of oil?

    ReplyDelete
  111. DGJune 15, 2011 at 10:11 AM

    Eamonn: Nope. Odds are heavily tilted towards lower prices.If an "event" happens my other shorts will way more than offset the oil spike as the dow would drop 500 points and the euro would crater. I would not go all in on an oil play alone.

    ReplyDelete
  112. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 10:12 AM

    DG,

    Thanks.

    I agree,without Gary's cycle work I would probably be long Gold.

    ReplyDelete
  113. JEFFtheFLEAJune 15, 2011 at 10:17 AM

    DG Gary or anyone
    will we be looking for a top in the dollar on day 10 or 11 to sell and then buy the next cycle low?

    ReplyDelete
  114. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 10:17 AM

    DG,

    Whats MSCI abbreviate?

    ReplyDelete
  115. SidJune 15, 2011 at 10:19 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  116. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 10:20 AM

    Today gold is moving right with the S&P not with the dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  117. whitebearJune 15, 2011 at 10:22 AM

    Gary,

    Well done on selling the 10 daily yesterday.

    WB

    ReplyDelete
  118. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 10:23 AM

    DG, thanks. I never thought of that, believe it or not, that the S&P etc would plunge if such a geopolitical event took place.
    I also find your shorting of emerging markets quite interesting. Do you see a global downturn coming, and what sort of time-scale do you have for this? A lot of people are saying China has a recession coming in about a year.

    ReplyDelete
  119. SidJune 15, 2011 at 10:25 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  120. pimaCanyonJune 15, 2011 at 10:27 AM

    William and anyone else thinking about a pure dollar long play:

    If you don't want to do dollar index futures but you want more leverage than UUP provides, consider in the money UUP calls.

    Right now the September 20 calls have a whopping 2 cents extrinsic value (meaning that essentially the entire price you pay is extrinsic value, or the current price of UUP less the strike price). The spread is 5 cents.

    So these in-the-money calls are a way you can control a lot of UUP shares with a lot less money than buying the shares outright.

    ReplyDelete
  121. gold silver trollJune 15, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    gold and silver refusing to budge here...wow

    the USD rallying, oil getting trashed, stocks getting trashed BUT gold and silver showing very good strength...is the intermediate decline ever going to happen?

    ReplyDelete
  122. oa92000June 15, 2011 at 10:28 AM

    back to my Goldman

    ReplyDelete
  123. DGJune 15, 2011 at 10:35 AM

    E: If we have a deflationary event the weakest players get hurt the most, just like the small caps get hurt the most when the SPX declines. Emerging mkts will get smacked as they are more volatile. I have been wanting to buy FXP but just kept buying other inverse etf's.

    ReplyDelete
  124. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    pimaCanyon, thanks for pointing that out RE UUP Calls. Wow, well spotted! Have you seen any other bargains? :o)

    ReplyDelete
  125. HaggertyJune 15, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    DTO off the charts today.

    ReplyDelete
  126. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 10:40 AM

    at one point, with oil down so much, it should be good for stocks and consumers...

    ReplyDelete
  127. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    DG, thank you. I've noticed you tend to get in very early to the move e.g. with NYSE:PHM. I imagine you have made fortunes with this method. You just need to have the confidence to do it before the move starts. You must do a lot of research before making these trades.

    ReplyDelete
  128. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    DG, thank you. I've noticed you tend to get in very early to the move e.g. with NYSE:PHM. I imagine you have made fortunes with this method. You just need to have the confidence to do it before the move starts. You must do a lot of research before making these trades.

    ReplyDelete
  129. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 10:44 AM

    A pop like today in the dollar you would think would drop gold about $80 like it did on may 5th

    ReplyDelete
  130. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 10:45 AM

    Extremely strong performance for predominantly oil equity market Russia RSX which just as in the relationship between gold stocks/gold price is often a tell oil prices - it's either a good tell here that oil price weakness is temporary ... or a great short here because of the spiraling effect of lower oil prices on the equities.

    ReplyDelete
  131. AaronJune 15, 2011 at 10:46 AM

    Sophia, a very large portion of the S&P is energy stocks. If oil gets crushed, they will get creamed, and drag down the market along.

    ReplyDelete
  132. pimaCanyonJune 15, 2011 at 10:47 AM

    Eamonn,

    You're welcome.

    I noticed those because I was interested in a pure dollar long but didn't want to tie up the money to buy a ton of UUP shares. So I haven't spotted any other bargains, mainly because I haven't looked.

    ReplyDelete
  133. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    pimaCanyon, thank you. I bought some UUP just as you mentioned. Seemed like a bargain

    ReplyDelete
  134. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    pimaCanyon, thank you. I bought some UUP just as you mentioned. Seemed like a bargain

    ReplyDelete
  135. PoindexterJune 15, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    Anyone one see the U.S. Dollar surge not happening until second half of 2011 when the economy start strengthening? Of course, second half is only 2 weeks away. EURO weakness is the secondary factor USD has pulling it up now, and Europe actauly has a few good economies like Germany. This goes along with oil weakening to prop up household spending. The deflationary scenario is a puzzle.

    ReplyDelete
  136. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 10:50 AM

    Gary,

    Do you realize how amazing your call to put back those shorts yesterday at the 10ma was. You sure you dont have a crystal ball?

    ReplyDelete
  137. fubsy_cooterJune 15, 2011 at 10:51 AM

    DG/Poly,
    Things are working put ok today, huh? The world is collapsing, but hey, we're not. : )
    DG, your vision is playing out. Nice conviction.
    f

    ReplyDelete
  138. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 10:55 AM

    What does DG stand for? 'Doing Great'

    ReplyDelete
  139. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 10:56 AM

    got it Aaron, thank you!

    ReplyDelete
  140. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 10:58 AM

    what happens if Papandreou resigns tonight? Markets up or down? If there is a unity gvt in Greece, we could have a brief rally and then Boum huge selloff as Greece is bankrupted anyway

    ReplyDelete
  141. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 11:01 AM

    Gary,

    Do you consider today to be a wasted 'down' day for gold, the way you considered a weak dollar not rallying gold to be a wasted 'up day'??

    ReplyDelete
  142. DGJune 15, 2011 at 11:04 AM

    Heck, I don't make that much because I don't play as hard as some of these young pups. I did manage to make 1,000% one year but that was a LONG time ago (I then got cocky and lost it, BTW. More Frankenstein scars). I am short 40% of my net worth right now.

    ReplyDelete
  143. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 11:05 AM

    Greek PM offers to resign... we shall see the reaction

    ReplyDelete
  144. BenJune 15, 2011 at 11:07 AM

    DG, be a man, like Goldman Sachs -- go short 3000-5000% of your net worth, with taxpayer backing or a huge Fed Prop Job if you screw up.

    ReplyDelete
  145. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 11:07 AM

    Careful with the Eur/Usd..it could do a head fake as you say....or a curve ball, cannot remember the terminology

    ReplyDelete
  146. EdwinJune 15, 2011 at 11:11 AM

    i come back from lunch hadn't checked the markets, and see a sea of red.

    dollar spike going ballistic.

    my bonds are going to have a good day.

    but my stocks, oh well.. i didn't see that spike coming.

    what's this spike all about? news of more eurozone problems?

    ReplyDelete
  147. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 11:11 AM

    Gary,

    You recently mentioned another "leak" springing out of Europe, would you consider the resignation of Greece's PM that "leak"?

    ReplyDelete
  148. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 11:14 AM

    Why is there no fear? I think it all comes down to 3 letter words. Mom, Dad, Fed, IMF, and ECB

    ReplyDelete
  149. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 11:15 AM

    I have only one issue regarding been too short S&P and NSQ if I may...
    The German market DAX is holding at the same level where it was last week when S&P was at 1300 and NSQ at 2300...Either one market was overvalued then, or it is undervalued now...
    Time will tell

    ReplyDelete
  150. DGJune 15, 2011 at 11:19 AM

    Ben: Your "emulate GS" idea sounds like a good gig. Can you help me set that up?

    ReplyDelete
  151. HarryJune 15, 2011 at 11:26 AM

    Seriously, Gary - your call to put the stock short back on was legendary. I missed the original entry but the SPY puts I bought yesterday are up about 30%!

    ReplyDelete
  152. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 11:29 AM

    Harry, what is Shanghai like? I had a Chinese friend and she didn't like it!

    ReplyDelete
  153. NomenJune 15, 2011 at 11:33 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  154. hamvestorJune 15, 2011 at 11:37 AM

    Eamonn, you're kidding, right? What would you say if someone asked you "what's Ireland like? I had an Irish friend and he didn't like it"?

    ReplyDelete
  155. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 11:39 AM

    hamvestor, you've picked it up wrong. change your tone

    ReplyDelete
  156. hamvestorJune 15, 2011 at 11:43 AM

    OK Eamonn, what if someone just asked you "what's Ireland like?" That is the kind of question which can be answered simply only by simpletons. jmho.

    ReplyDelete
  157. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 11:44 AM

    Gary,

    The market falling today is all your fault, when you said yesterday "s&p touched the 10ma, oh well I guess I will put those shorts back on right now" You smacked the market right over the head into submission.

    All hail Gary...lol!

    ReplyDelete
  158. ...at easeJune 15, 2011 at 11:45 AM

    Thanks Gary, wanted to thank you before I head out for getting us back in yesterday so quickly. I wasn't sure, but followed your lead back in and very very happy. :) !!!

    THANK YOU!

    ReplyDelete
  159. nivenJune 15, 2011 at 11:47 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  160. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 11:47 AM

    Gary,

    Can you do that to Gold now also!!

    ReplyDelete
  161. nivenJune 15, 2011 at 11:49 AM

    Its weird how silver isn't going down today as the us dollar has spiked.. could it have anything to do with the increase in China's CPI

    ReplyDelete
  162. oa92000June 15, 2011 at 11:52 AM

    " Éamonn said...
    Harry, what is Shanghai like?"

    Shanghai? you can live cheap or you can live expensive ..I paid $5000/month for my apartment when I was there.

    ReplyDelete
  163. HarryJune 15, 2011 at 11:55 AM

    Ireland is a big place and might be a little harder to describe, but Shanghai is just a city and I can describe it fairly well.

    I agree with your Chinese friend, Eamonn - I don't like it! I'm actually up in Beijing this week and boy is there a difference. Shanghai is too much flash and glamour, there's no substance. Plenty of overpriced bars but that's about it. Everything is more expensive that elsewhere in China (prices of a lot of things are close to double what they are in smaller cities). It's the Chinese NYC, and I don't like the original NYC. It's oppressively hot and humid for much of the year. And I hate everyone's Shanghai accent, which to my white ears is hard to understand. Half the time they don't even speak Mandarin! Shanghainese is a separate dialect and is completely unintelligible. So, overall, I'm not a fan.

    ReplyDelete
  164. HarryJune 15, 2011 at 11:56 AM

    My apartment is 2200 RMB per month. :)

    ReplyDelete
  165. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 11:57 AM

    The VIX broke higher today. Could quite see a possible gap up tomorrow. Which of course would mean a big down day for the SP500.



    James

    ReplyDelete
  166. hamvestorJune 15, 2011 at 12:02 PM

    Harry, I've spent a lot of time in China, and while I agree with many of your comments about Shanghai, it sounds unfortunately like you have also missed a lot of what the city has to offer.

    As for your analogy to NYC, while many of us find a lot not to like there, imagine all the things that can be found there and virtually nowhere else. I won't belabor the point, but even as a rabid Red Sox fan and season-ticket holder at Fenway Park, I wouldn't dream of writing off a city so complex and fascinating as readily as you have. The world just ain't that simlpe.

    ReplyDelete
  167. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:03 PM

    Gold briefly resisted the deflationary pressures last year too. Remember me saying gold would do whatever it had to do to draw everyone in at the top and then it would take them down and kick them off at the bottom.

    As far as I can remember there has never been a time where gold didn't drop down into an intermediate cycle low most of the time in the normal timing band. Every once in a while the cycle will stretch but it usually stretches because the correction lengthens not because the rally expands.

    As of today gold topped on week 14 and so far it's showing no ability to better that high. It's just struggling to hold above $1500. Ultimately it will correct and the longer it holds out the more violent the correction will be when the selling finally takes hold.

    ReplyDelete
  168. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 12:05 PM

    Harry, thanks for that info. China sounds interesting, culturally. Very interesting place to visit, I would say. Hopefully I can visit some day. Shanghai sounds like a boom town

    ReplyDelete
  169. nivenJune 15, 2011 at 12:06 PM

    You could definitely head up to Taiwan. The people here are very friendly and its not like China where they have hundreds of different dialects. You'll have no problem getting around since most people here speak English as a second language.

    ReplyDelete
  170. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:06 PM

    Driven,
    There is a link to the blog on the website. It;s about half way down the home page.

    ReplyDelete
  171. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:11 PM

    TJ,
    The blees ratings for silver have become mostly worthless. They were becoming extremely bullish right into the top.

    I would suggest you ignore the silver Blees rating and focus on gold.

    ReplyDelete
  172. PolyJune 15, 2011 at 12:12 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Gann360June 15, 2011 at 12:12 PM

    For the Curious, Here is an Update
    to the 10 Min SILVER SLV Chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/AIgdc5p55n

    ReplyDelete
  174. AdamJune 15, 2011 at 12:16 PM

    I've heard great things about Shanghai. Are Jackie Chan & Owen Wilson still there beating up bad guys?

    ReplyDelete
  175. SkepticSquirrelJune 15, 2011 at 12:18 PM

    Gary,
    TOS chart grid pic.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/skepticsquirrel/folders/Default/media/9472356d-851a-4ec1-8484-30cb8fb0cfb8/2011-06-15_0743.png

    ReplyDelete
  176. PSTJune 15, 2011 at 12:20 PM

    Gary,
    If we take out the March intermediate pivot in the S&P soon, what range would you be expecting for the half cycle low in a few weeks?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  177. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 12:23 PM

    ok guys, let's admit, I find the whole situation depressing...Greece is bankrupt and dragging down all of Europe in the downhill spiral...I lived the birth of the Euro in the dealing rooms of the City of London and there was great hope then and there.
    The US is playing with fire with its crazy debt levels...I agree with Pimco that the situation in the US is far worst than the one in Greece in the fact that nobody,I mean nobody is ready in the US to tighten their belt for the sake of a better future..The Greeks did the same for the last 10 years...

    ReplyDelete
  178. BenJune 15, 2011 at 12:23 PM

    DG, I've been looking for where you apply to e.g. borrow a billion at 0.1% like the big boyz... no luck so far. I'll let ya know when I find the missing link.

    ReplyDelete
  179. head scratcherJune 15, 2011 at 12:25 PM

    The USA debt situation is worse than Greece?

    ReplyDelete
  180. PolyJune 15, 2011 at 12:26 PM

    Sophia,

    Depressing it is, realizing it, protecting ourselves and profiting from it as our goal.

    ReplyDelete
  181. T.J. RandJune 15, 2011 at 12:27 PM

    Thanks, Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Gann360June 15, 2011 at 12:28 PM

    Update on Daily SILVER SLV Chart:

    http://screencast.com/t/XnPrINh9Zt

    ReplyDelete
  183. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:30 PM

    PST,
    Prepare for a significant counter trend rally once the March pivot is broken.

    Breakdowns almost always fail to follow through.

    ReplyDelete
  184. sophiaJune 15, 2011 at 12:30 PM

    I agree Poly, but I live in Europe...I have family in the US and for years I looked at them spending and borrowing without understanding how they could do it while us we were tightening our belts since the late 80s.

    Ben Bernanke helped the American people by printing money and not by tightening their belts.. The day of reckoning is coming close...
    I want to see that day where the US Treasuries are going to be dumped like hot potatoes...It will be interesting as then our favorite GOLd will be at 2000-2500$

    ReplyDelete
  185. hamvestorJune 15, 2011 at 12:31 PM

    Yesterday I suggested that SLV seemed to be putting in a double-bottom, at least for the near-term, and got no response. Silver (and gold) certainly seem to be strong today in the face of a strong dollar and unsupportive seasonal tendencies. I know Gary has said it is just a case of there being a lag in gold and silver acting inversely to the rising dollar, and that the cycles will ultimately rule, but what would be the ultimate fake-out to fool the most investors? It will be fascinating to see how this plays out.

    ReplyDelete
  186. TommyDJune 15, 2011 at 12:45 PM

    Sophia,

    Those of us that SAVED and did our best to keep low debt, we will suffer for all of those that didn't save and took on much debt.

    That is the part that makes it hard for me to handle. I have a friend that hasn't paid a mortgage in 4 years. He has had the best vacations I could just hope to one day have.

    Europe and the rest of the world have had an unfair advantage on NAFTA and GATA, yet the world still wants to see the USA depreciate and go bankrupt. I see everyone in the world going down with the USA ship.

    Unfair but it's life...

    ReplyDelete
  187. AnonymousJune 15, 2011 at 12:46 PM

    Gann, thanks for the charts.. I follow them closely... looking to add to SLV puts...

    Gary, does a stagflationary vs deflationary environment change gold's cycle length or depth?

    ReplyDelete
  188. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    I'm not sure what you mean by a double bottom. Silver would have to dip to $32.31 to form a double bottom. It's still quite a ways from that yet.

    ReplyDelete
  189. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:47 PM

    It looks to me like Silver is forming a bear flag.

    ReplyDelete
  190. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:48 PM

    The same for gold.

    ReplyDelete
  191. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:50 PM

    Michael,
    QE has tended to stretch all cycles a bit but other than that cycles are governed by human emotions. Those don't usually change.

    ReplyDelete
  192. GaryJune 15, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    I seem to remember someone bet me a burrito that the dollar was going to continue down and make new lows. I think it's safe to say at this point that the daily cycle has bottomed and the dollar will not be making new lows in the near future.

    ReplyDelete
  193. SangJune 15, 2011 at 12:51 PM

    Love it - for those who have been around... we've seen this sideshow before.

    Dollar goes up, and Gold/Silver tread water and don't go down.

    This lasts just long enough to suck in the remaining late comers, and the longer the charade lasts, the harder the fall.

    I can see some comments here now, thinking, perhaps even hoping that this time, somehow, Gold and Silver somehow will rise in tandem with the dollar.

    Yes, it can do that. In fact, it has done that in the past, many times actually.

    But to invest in those rare instances, which all have a 100% ending of Gold and Silver finally blowing up and tanking after a "lag" as Gary puts it, is foolhardy. There are so many other ways to make money than to focus on this fleeting temporal distortion if you are long Gold or Silver.

    In fact, even though I agree with Gary that one should never short a bull market (and we are in one for Gold and Silver), you'd be better off shorting Gold and Silver and taking advantage of this temporal "lag" than clinging on to hopes if you are long Gold or Silver.

    Full disclosure: I am short silver, in a big grand way =D

    ReplyDelete
  194. William WallaceJune 15, 2011 at 12:58 PM

    Sang,

    It is like a big show, this morning gold pops on high volume within minutes because institutional investors run it up, then after that you can see all the retail investors are all confused and gold bouys for the rest of the day.

    ReplyDelete
  195. whitebearJune 15, 2011 at 1:02 PM

    Basil is the burrito Boy

    ReplyDelete
  196. KeysJune 15, 2011 at 1:04 PM

    Clear as day, as is to many that going long doesn't make sense. Gary and many others on this blog have been confirming this move down for months...nothing out of the play book.
    Gold looks real weak, so does silver...However it is showing relative strength in other currencies...the Euro being one....
    But yikes, who wants to put money to work on this...The world wants deflation to purge out debt, very obviouse..Gov's want to inflate out of it...up and down up and down...sustained deflation is not possible without the economy blowing up, so the FED and other gov's print...clear as day that we are entering another round of falling prices, until interest rates creep up, or some other cause forces the FED to print again. This after all is the big story for the last decade...
    Great short calls and congrats to all that participated!

    I found it great that Pandora IPOed today(if such a verb exists)…no profit for ten years, and people blindly buying…Pandora’s box has been opened! Ominous sign.LOL

    Back to the depression again!

    ReplyDelete
  197. hamvestorJune 15, 2011 at 1:09 PM

    Gary, by "double bottom" in SLV I mean the low in Mid-May and the subsequent low over the past few days (forming a higher low than mid-May, fwiw), making for the beginning of a potential "W" pattern. I think that's a lower probability than a break down out of of the triangle on Monday and a retest of the breakdown today (leading to further downside), but still, the strength of PM's in the face of a strong dollar makes me slightly nervous (I have modest positions in DZZ and ZSL), as does the prevalence of the view, at least on this blog, that any significant move up in PM's is not in the cards for the near-term. We'll know soon enough I guess.

    ReplyDelete
  198. PolyJune 15, 2011 at 1:10 PM

    Agree Gary, gold forming a flag and the timing for moves down ti IT low get sweeter by the day.

    Guys, don't forget, when gold is ready, it does not waddle down, it base jumps!

    ReplyDelete
  199. VondaJune 15, 2011 at 1:12 PM

    "Pandora's Box." Nice Keys!

    Decided not to go with Euro or equivalent play, though I believe in it. Just didn't have the energy to muster risk-reward preferences.

    Besides, I like swingin' at fences. Beats the rip-roaring bore that is the PM market of late.

    Sticking with line-up of SLV puts, various strike prices/dates, purchased at different times with risk carefully calculated to save the bulk for the A-train. At the moment am at dead break even. Ho-hum.

    ReplyDelete
  200. VondaJune 15, 2011 at 1:13 PM

    Base-jumping would be a thing of beauty, Poly!

    ReplyDelete

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