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Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Switzerland

Here is what I get to wake up to every morning.

569 comments:

  1. You are actually going to climb that Gary?

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  2. Fantastic it is ... enjoy the raclette and the fondue.

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  3. the view out my window is better

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  4. hey I live just on the other side of that mountain, in the Italian city of Aosta - it's an amazing city, full of historical Roman and Medieval remains...
    you are welcome to visit!

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  5. So Gary,
    Are you planning on coming back or have things gone to limbo?

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  6. What a view and a climber's paradise to boot. Enjoy!

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  7. hey, where are the 4-man bobsleds....I don't see them.

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  8. Rick,
    I don`t think you can see the cemetery in that shot.

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  9. Ok my bet too much snow I,d have a June put on Gary climbing the Roger of 5% of portfolio

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  10. Wow!
    I guess Ill have to make a trip out there, thats an amazing shot!

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  11. OMG fat boy, you are all bones....

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  12. Yeah, I could see how looking at that every morning could get a tad boring:-)

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  13. Pima, if you're around (or if anyone else knows): What happened to Hammy's site? I can't access it anymore. Friday it was fine. Today, I'm rejected.

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  14. @Gann360

    If you could, please shoot me an email? It's on my profile.

    Cheers.

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  15. Ok,
    I'm a dumbass for not being there, but I gotta work.
    : )
    You independently wealthy blokes are hard to take at times.
    Enjoy!! Man that's luscious!

    Mt Charleston never looked so good, although I do envy you having such easy access to the Mojave.

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  16. Any clue why silver is acting so strong compared to gold and almost everything else? Thanks for the answers earlier.

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  17. The dollar is holding very steady at the moment. It seems strange to me since it is usually moving around at least some.

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  18. Fusby, independently wealthy or credit card users ;*)

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  19. don't fall off that pointy rock in the center of the picture, savage ... that would hurt more than AGQ dropping a couple hundred points in a week

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  20. Does anyone have a "real" number to how much the FED was buying of newly issued treasuries...Basically without the FED, who I have read accounts for about 67% of new purchases, this leaves a rate rise in bonds to occur. But if we are concerned about deflation again, these bonds may be bought out of fear.
    So if the FED is a big buyer of issues, the only way rates can stay down(or accommodative) is if new buyers come in...the only buyers that may come in are the ones convinced about deflation...If they don't come in, then rates rise until buyers do come in, pushing deflation potentially, and the result is the same.
    Either way pushing the long side on anything seems unwise, since both of what I believe to be most likely scenarios cause the same event.
    Politically impossible, I will agree with now to continue QE, won't continue until another round of fear....perhaps Ben already has plans for the new round of perpetual QE...until then though!
    Back to sleep! For those trading good luck...

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  21. Wow thats so beautiful it dosent look real!

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  22. Gary,

    What day will you be climbing it?

    Have you decided on which route you'll use?

    The meadows there at Zermatt look beautiful, all nice and green. I wondered whether there might still be snow on the ground in Zermatt, but looks like it's gone for the summer.

    Enjoy! And be careful up there.

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  23. WOW! Like really WOW! Again, be safe:)

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  24. Jeez, Gary - why would you want to come back to Las Vegas after that?

    For comparison, this is the view from the park across the street from my hotel: http://i.imgur.com/bCcyS.jpg

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  25. harry that is cool.. apples and oranges to gary , but that is very nice

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  26. traderlady, everyone want to come to your neck of the woods

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  27. alex is missing , is he in sarasota?

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  28. Jeff, Alex is July if he can take the heat,lol. A switch from that nice snow cap of Garys. You coming to town???

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  29. Thanks DG for EUO update in previous post!



    Gary,

    Nice view - more pics please!

    But to those of you blown away by European sights, we have just as world class mountain views here in US of A (e.g. Oro valley, Tucson - right PimaCanyon?) Even Swiss visitors were impressed!

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  30. Traderlady,

    I'll be in sarasota within the next 2 months. In the meantime, I check this page everyday and long to be there.

    http://seesarasotalive.com/siesta-key

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  31. Gary

    That picture looks great and I'd love to be there (checking out the culture too).


    Hey Jeff

    Actually I was posting a bit on the previous post. Thanks for asking.

    These markets are a tad jumpy, hard to really pick a great stock when theres no real market direction as of right now.

    Traderlady, Your picture is a mighty fine one too. From New England and Palm trees do not grow here :)

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  32. Bamster, If you are here in July maybe we can do a SMT meeting with others. I remember now that you got a place here. Good for you!

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  33. im long the dollar at 73.94 september contract. this better be the bottom. way to many stomps lately

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  34. Traderlady , slight chance after layborday

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  35. Anyone familiar with Clive Maund?
    He lives in Chile and was near that Volcano that just erupted, and took these pics ( scroll down). Great set of pics I.M.H.O.

    http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=2516

    Goodnight, hopefully tomorrow is a clearer picture.

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  36. i always sayif your birthday is from aug 27 to sept 6 mom and dad had a big newyears eve party = )

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  37. chile volcano.. hmmm i hope it drives the dollar up, but i dont really think it will

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  38. Thank you Gary for the nice photo.

    The town looks very beautiful.



    James

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  39. Oops, corrected zip.

    traderlady

    From one Virgo to another, I'll definitely let you know. How far am i from Cougertown? The only thing I can tell you is my zip is 34232.

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  40. Sept 21-youngest,lol!

    Bamster, you are in the middle of Cougartown,

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  41. i really hope the dollar can get a little footing and knock the heck out of gold and the s n p

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  42. Gary,

    You ever climb Everest?

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  43. when is gold going to roll over?

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  44. Jeff, ... we have to be
    PATIENT!!!!

    I'm with you.... it can't be too many days left in this cycle for Gold to start the down hill slide.

    Maybe it will be like the silver slide down, fast and furious. :)

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  45. Sept 19 here.

    Alex, thanks for sending the pics. Just amazing!

    I know a guy who picked up a few bucket fulls of ashs from Mt. St.Helens volcano. He brought it home and put the ashs on his garden and said he has never had a garden like it before or since. Unblievable growth! Kind of like it exploded.......

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  46. ALEX, There are palm trees in New England. This is Portland Headlight in Maine:

    http://blog.rapidsea.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/20071116citifloridatomainepalmtree.jpg

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  47. You don't have to go to Switzerland to see beauty. I can go out and sit by my river and listen to the birds and sounds of nature uninterrupted at their work :o)

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  48. Or, I could just go out to these guys and talk to them about the price of silver http://i.imgur.com/N7GkP.jpg

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  49. Gold is sitting pretty on the 10DMA, if it breaks below it I think we will see 1460ish quick.

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  50. Eamonn! You are too much ROFLOL!!!

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  51. No desire to ever climb Everest.

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  52. ...at ease, if you have a story to tell, those guys will listen!

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  53. Hey, Eamonn. What kind of cattle are those? Do you live on a dairy farm?

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  54. Alright back to bed for me :)

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  55. Thanks for the report Gary. Hope you have a good rest.

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  56. Am I the only one that thinks Gary's dollar chart is off?

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  57. KAL, those animals are bred for beef, not for milk :o) They are not mine

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  58. Movax2, it looks wrong to me too.

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  59. Movax,

    How do you think that it's off. It is dollar futures as opposed to DXY.

    Best,
    Le Fou

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  60. Oh, there is quite a difference.

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  61. OK, Eamonn... Gotcha. Do you live out in the country?

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  62. KAL, I have a house in the countryside

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  63. Out of curiosity, does anyone know how many SMT members made the trip to Switzerland?

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  64. Eamonn, I bet those buddies of yours get tired of hearing where's the beef. So a little gold and silver chatter is a nice break for them. :)

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  65. ...at ease, yes, they just like to keep things simple

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  66. Looks like Gary is back on schedule, up in the wee hours of the morning before the birds.

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  67. Looks like the dollar may make the swing low tomorrow/Wednesday. Figures I'll be on a plane to Denver most of the day. I'll just have to buy EUO first thing in the morning. More SKF and DUG too. Darn, though, I like shorting into rallies so I may slow walk a bit...

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  68. DG, does that mean I have a chance to get something from my cheapie EUO Call for June?

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  69. There's always a chance ;-)

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  70. DG, don't miss your flight like Gary did. Don't they have WIFI on the planes now, you can purchase your connection?

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  71. Some airlines do and some don't. I am flying Southwest and they will have everything wired soon but do not yet. Maybe I'll get lucky.

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  72. Probably as much a chance as I will make something from my June Call for EUO. ;)

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  73. It may or may not matter, but Trichet (ECB) has his press conference on early Thursday morning where he's expected to announce a July interest rate hike.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110607-709050.html

    At his last conference, he took a dovish stance and didn't even mention a rate hike and that sent the dollar soaring. If he confirms a hike this time, which is what the market is expecting, will that provide a lift to the Euro or is that already priced in?

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  74. Movax,

    I think you are correct. Wasn't today's USD lower than low printed two days ago?

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  75. At ease
    Sure I.ll get some weight back on soon....
    What with may drop and tax bill for all Gary,s assisted 2010 profits , ouch
    FYI
    I have puts to about 20 % of portfolio value
    Gld July
    Slv July
    QQQ Aug
    Dug

    Lol Oh in London next week, any good readonable restaurants round grosvenor sq anyone? Not 500 $ a head I mean
    So let's see how it goes

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  76. Fatboy, In London proper...
    Victoria Pub on Sunday noon time, great family style roasts (good home cooking style).
    Rumored Diana used to meet her bou there upstairs in the library room.
    http://www.fullers.co.uk/rte.asp?id=243&itemid=317&task=View

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  77. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  78. at ease
    only there one night 14/15 then race back to the wales and then USA. bummer
    pub looks walking distance from hotel thanks.
    I sure would love to make some money on the downside with silver thats for sure.

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  79. movax2 eamon and roL
    yes, dollart chart is wrong.Bottom wasn't friday but yesterday at 73,4950.


    Gary,

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

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  80. Today will be the SnP's 6th down day!
    Impressive.

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  81. Silver is breaking down out of bear flag. If this continues into market hours, I'll add to my SLV OCT 32 Puts, increasing the position by half, bringing risk to portfolio to 1.5%.
    f

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  82. Looks like silver has broken it's bear flag and were still waiting on the dollar to break it's downtrend line. Think well need another up day to see that. Am very curious to see how the marks behaves when the dollar rebounds as it's already oversold.

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  83. That's enough confirmation for me to double up all short positions.

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  84. Poly, are you shorting silver? Thanks :o)

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  85. Yes I've been short silver for a few weeks now. Modest short, gold as a safe haven/crises play has me limiting my greed on playing Silver short.

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  86. Beautiful. The closest I've ever seen to that in person was a trek I did in Bariloche, Beunos Aires. I'm sure child's play to you.

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  87. Beautiful. The closest I've ever seen to that in person was a trek I did in Bariloche, Beunos Aires. I'm sure child's play to you.

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  88. Gary,

    You can get the dollar on thinkorswim with $dxy. Maybe that helps.

    Jenny

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  89. Poly
    Can I ask about shorts on SPY or qqq, I was thinking of lightning up here those and holding my GLD puts. Or would a bounce to the market just be a spot to add more?

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  90. Poly:

    What was the confirmation?

    Thanks

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  91. Oil prices going up because OPEC agrees to increase production? What am i missing?

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  92. Scratch that...they decided not to increase AFTER they decided to increase...

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  93. Long GDXJ 50%+, QID 17%, EUO 13%
    Short SLV 8%
    Cash 12%

    +increased position

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  94. Haggerty, I don't know, depends on so many factors unique to just you.
    For me personally, I will never short gold. As Gary has stated, equities have a failed cycle and the action looks horrible. I like to play what I believe to have the best odds

    WMP, besides the failed cycles, basically the tape on equities is horrible, it can't find a bid where it should have.

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  95. As noted by Gary, Looks like a good day to cover all short position and wait for the bounce.

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  96. I dont cover until Im satisfied, I simply add to winning trades. The short is two month-ish play.

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  97. I think if the S&P can reach 1275 traders might consider covering partial shorts.

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  98. On that note, lets hope the snp can muster a rally

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  99. PM stocks continuing to outperforming on the downside indicating we have more room for gold/silver to fall.

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  100. I've placed some buy orders on miners below the market. If filled, will risk 1% of total capital using $1.50 stops on both EXK and SVM.

    I'll see how they bounce (if they do), but this trade has a likely hold time of only 6-10 days, unless a rally is stronger than I anticipate in which case I'll hold and add into dips.

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  101. Covering shorts for a quick buck is the quickest way to losing a nice position. Many tried that Friday, Monday and yesterday and probably scrambled each time.
    Instead of covering, look to add to shorts on any significant strength.

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  102. Poly is right. Don't lose strong hand status. It can be very hard to get back in. In bulls you buy dips; in bears you short rallies.

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  103. Eric,
    I wouldn't cover all shorts. You might consider covering 25% if the S&P can put in another hard down day (1275).

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  104. GLD low 149.72 so far, did this break the trendline? Looks close but not quite?

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  105. Long GDXJ 50%+, QID X, EUO 13%
    Short SLV 8%
    Cash 29%

    +increased position
    Xclosed position

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  106. Dg
    Did bernanke speech support the dollar?

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  107. Gary,

    I don't have a big position, at 1280 ES it's good enough for me. I covered it. I'm not going to push for that 5 points (1275). Everything is so oversold in multiple time frames that the risk and reward on the downside simply isn't there at this moment. I see a bounce to 1310.

    Currently still holding Gold short from 1545 and will probably just sit on it for a bit.

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  108. Felix,

    I have a low of 149.22 for gld, that's pretty darn close. Would love to see gold breakdown and dollar break up. Not sure if it will happen today though.

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  109. The thing about shorting bear markets (assuming we are in one) is the rally are going to be SHARP and HARD. I really don't want to be in a position to chase back up.

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  110. I doubt the market is going to bounce back to 1310. 1300 would be good in my opinion. You aren't going to get the exact top of counter trend rallies so I wouldn't even try. Just pick spots that are "good enough".

    The next significant rally shouldn't occur until the half cycle low which is still a week or two away.

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  111. SB,
    why would you try to pick a counter trend trade with gold & the dollar so deep in their daily cycle?

    Seems like you would just be asking for losses.

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  112. Gary, You can see that picture in Seattle

    http://www.tripadvisor.com/LocationPhotos-g60878-w2-Seattle_Washington.html

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  113. Took profits on my IWM and SPY Puts. Happy to wait for a minor bounce up before I jump in again :o)

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  114. You may very well be correct, Gary. I got the signal so took the trade with proper risk like always.

    I rely on you for the cycles stuff and don't like going against them, but not everything is cycles, you know? :)

    We'll see how it shakes out, and I don't even feel the need to watch the ticks as my risk is defined.

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  115. Jeff,

    CNBC headline takeaway from speech: Bernanke Not Ready for More Money Printing, Yet: Economist

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  116. I'm done for the morning but will check back before the close.

    Good luck, fellow traders!

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  117. test,
    why so big on GDXJ, 50% + are you expecting this to be the low and rally back up?

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  118. Gary:

    Given that the model portfolio is15% in each SPY and QQQ short, covering 25% is like 3-4% in each, for those of us w/ little fund, would it be worth the effort? Would appreciate anyone chiming in. Thanks

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  119. GDX broke below its prior intermediate low.





    James

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  120. Gary,
    If you look at the 2007-2008 top, S&P have a history of bouncing back to the 50 dma until the final terminal move. Currently the 50 dma is at 1330 and trending up. The 200 dma is at 1251 and also trending up. I just can't see how this would simply go terminal from here without back testing the 50 dma every 1-2 month. Those are my expectations.

    I think the place to be short is gold and long USD instruments.

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  121. Gold diverging from Oil now.
    It's a positive sign the wheels might start to come off of this bull.

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  122. Long GDXJ 66%+, EUO 13%
    Short SLV 8%
    Cash 13%

    +increased position

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  123. GDXJ (the HUI) is incredibly oversold/undervalued, and is at buy-and-forget prices.

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  124. Is now the time to add to PM short positions as we seem to be breaking trend, or wait till tomorrow if today's swing is confirmed? I know this is partly trader instinct but just asking.

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  125. Eric,
    Don't make the mistake of thinking this is going to do the same things it did in 07.

    This is a daily cycle that has topped in only 3 days. If you want to look for a similar period look at second half of Sept. 08.

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  126. Hi Gary,

    In your report you mentioned the 10 day moving avg. What do you consider stretched above/below it (percentage wise)?

    Thanks!

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  127. test,
    At true buy and hold levels gold will be at or under it's 200 DMA. The miners will have dropped so far that it will be almost impossible for you to pull the trigger.

    The ease with which you bought today should tell you that we aren't even vaguely close to the end of this yet.

    Wait at least another 4-5 weeks and then decide if you are still willing to buy.

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  128. MD,
    There is no right or wrong level. I mentioned 1275 this morning.

    The best way to play this is just to hold on. Trading will probably just cause you to underperform, but some people will do it anyway. If you can't control your urge to trade then at least wait till truly stretched conditions are achieved.

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  129. Gary,

    I know you're not a big fan of charting but beside the quick cycle top the difference between today and 2nd half of 08 is substantial. In 08, the market was already in a confirmed bear market (50 dma below 200 dma).

    Another note, have a look at the high fliers in the tech sector.

    GOOG, AMZN, NFLX, CMG, AAPL

    Over the past 2 weeks while the NASD have been getting wrecked, these stocks are essentially flat. I won't get too aggressive until i see breakdowns on these big names.

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  130. Jeff: I did not listen to Bernanke's speech. I don;t care what those guys say as the mkt shows what to do next regardless.

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  131. "GDXJ (the HUI) is incredibly oversold/undervalued, and is at buy-and-forget prices."


    The HUI at the end of 2008 fits that description a little better. I agree undervalued. I agree buy and forget would work just fine. But GDXJ at $28-$30 would not shock me in the least

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  132. At Ease: Not until the dollar swing low is established.

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  133. Thanks, was waiting to hear this morning... How was your flight?

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  134. I took 75% of the shorts I had on qqq and spy off the table. Kept the Aug ones. Still holding my puts on GLD as wee might be getting going soon, we'll see?

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  135. update on Weekly SLV Chart :

    http://screencast.com/t/eTOBK8oa

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  136. Eric,
    Once you have confirmation you will also have very oversold conditions. If you wait for confirmation then not only will it be much harder to pull the trigger but you will also run the risk of selling in front of a sharp counter trend rally.

    Of course you could say you will just wait until the counter trend rally runs it's course, except there is no guarantee there will be a sharp counter trend rally or that you will be able to time it correctly.

    Just look at the recent action where traders chose to wait for the counter trend rally once the daily cycle low broke. A counter trend rally that never happened and now those traders that tried to time a perfect entry gotten left behind by the bear.

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  137. Follow up to Weekly SILVER CHART :

    http://screencast.com/t/YGhf5vh2st4e

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  138. Is it possible the market daily cycle has not yet bottomed?

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  139. Gann
    Nice charts pal, but with the dollar hopefully finding a low here I think that chart will soon break down as opposed to testing 40. Just added a little more to my SLV puts. I think the pms have held up well only because of the recent dollar weakness.

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  140. I agree with you Haggerty.

    Reason why i am short, but just in case i am wrong. and Silver rallies to High 39-40 Bucks,i will add there...

    i am not 100% Inn ,my normal size position,But it seems to be forming a Bearflag on the weekly,which could breakdown at any time..

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  141. Quick 5 min short term observation chart :

    http://screencast.com/t/6sTP3drOJkiV

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  142. Another sideways day, S&P might be ready for a bit of a bounce here, just a small one.

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  143. Given how incredibly weak hui & xau are, I think we are heading for a fall in the price of gold/silver however it doesn't seem it will happen until the USD bottoms out and today's action in the USD could be viewed as a short term bounce or bear flag as there doesn't seem to be much conviction in today's increase.

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  144. Miners are doing terrible, ABX, SLW, EXK, you name it..
    People are washing their hands from this sector it seems but for some reason still clinging to PMs.

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  145. Silver formed a swing high. Dollar is late in its cycle. Going ahead and adding to SLV OCT 32 puts as stated previously...Adding one half of initial position with total risk of position at 1.5% of portfolio.

    Will add more with a break of the swing low pivot in Silver from three days ago. Looking like the ask is around 1.97. Initial position was bought at 2.10.
    f

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  146. SLV daily volume is even lower today. The average was 78 million a few days ago it is now 53 million.

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  147. Hello everyone.
    I have 2 questions.
    First: is it too late to short QQQ/S&P? Second:

    I'm a foreigner (European country, without Euro) I expect that Dollar will strengthen against my currency (10% won't be surprise), so should I risk shorting anything?

    Thanks for your help!

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  148. Markets are not healthy, smart money is half way out the door, others are only just noticing the commotion coming from the exit-ways!

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  149. I see many on the blog trade proshares, what other vehicles do you guys recommend trading? Im new to the game, and wonder how does one even find vehicles such as proshares, where do you even begin the search to find such to trade? Thanks everyone.

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  150. Poly, your descripton of the market sounds like a reaction to a Charlie Sheen event.

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  151. Gary,
    Rather than timing counter trend rallies to get good entries, why not just use one of your surest tools..the swing reversal. it has worked really well for me, and it provides a low risk entry in that a stop is always nearby. of course, near the end of a cycle, a stop may not be necessary, but I like to have them there to know my risk. I always try again on the next swing if stopped out.

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  152. When she breaks, all hell will break lose. Anybody thinks for a second they will get on board the short side when this happens is mistaken.

    I bet you every trading room of every firm is shitting bricks right now. They're on alert and their survival instincts are kicking in.

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  153. Gold:XAU spiking indicates we're headed for a mini-2008.

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  154. Damn, I was kind of hoping for a dead cat bounce

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  155. Wow PM stocks are just pathetic, guess I should of shorted the shares instead if the metal.

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  156. @ Gann360.

    Would mind sending me a quick email, I have something to run by you. Email is on my profile.

    Thanks.

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  157. Isn't it a bit oversold down here?

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  158. William,
    DG posted this one recently and it has a ton of info. ETF til you drop! Good Luck.

    http://www.etftips.com/

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  159. Buying some GLD puts here, I can't think of anything else right now yesterday was clearer.

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  160. Sophia,

    Yes it is oversold, but it has been for many days, at times this condition can stretch for a very long time. We shouldn't lose sight of what is happening in context of the IT cycle and it's timing band/duration, that is where the low lying fruit is located.

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  161. Fubsy,

    I use the ThinkorSwim platform, I dont see any SLV Oct 32 puts, only 34,35,36,37...why is that?

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  162. Poly,
    What do you think of taking of taking on some SDS at this point? Do you feel the market is getting ready to seriously head south? Thanks.

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  163. SLV October 32 puts, 1.98 bid 1.99 ask.

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  164. William,

    I own 32s also so they definitely exist....

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  165. Any idea why I dont see them (SLV Oct 32 puts) on ThinkorSwim guys?

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  166. William,
    adjust the range on your strikes.

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  167. 86,

    Probably will see a bounce at some point, sooner rather than later. That's why I like getting into position as early as possible. I'm also playing the IT cycle low in Aug, so from that prism, even a 20 point bounce here does not concern me.

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  168. Scary part is the market is working it's way through short-term oversold conditions by just consolidating, it's not even put in any bounces.

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  169. anyone buying uup or euo now?

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  170. 86,

    Got it. Was trying to figure out how to do it in ThinkorSwim. Thanks alot

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  171. Thanks Poly. Just seems like the $ and market are stretched so far apart, which one is going to snap first. Big tug of war.

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  172. Who's going to take one for the team and put a big short position on so we can finally get the bounce we're looking for? :o)

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  173. assuming Goldman boys will save themselves..

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  174. Niven,
    Filled in the last of the EUO this morning. I started a little early on the way down, but think shortly it will be covered.

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  175. Added to my EUO calls today, EUO and shorting gold/silver seem like the safest plays right here assuming the USD works with us and gives us that ellusive swing low. If it stays up at the top of the range today we should hopefully see it tomorrow.

    Can someone tell me how to change my name under blogger, now that we have 2 William's on the board it is too confusing.

    Thanks

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