We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

BERNANKE BOTTOM OR CRASH?

Today's FOMC meeting and press conference has the potential to either put in a daily cycle bottom in the dollar index or initiate a waterfall decline into the dollar's three year cycle low. There is a lot riding on this meeting.

Let me explain. Today will be the 26th day of the current dollar cycle. That cycle typically lasts about 20-25 days. So it's already starting to stretch here. The last few days the dollar has been consolidating while it waits to hear what the Fed has to say. I suspect if the Fed clearly states it will close down QE2 in June that will give the dollar the impetus for another dead cat bounce.

 
Make no mistake though, this will only be a dead cat bounce. Just because Bernanke ends QE2 in June doesn't cure the problem of the trillions of dollars he's already printed. The foolish attempt to print prosperity is going to have dire consequences, it is going to cause a dollar crisis. There's no way Bernanke can avoid that now. The damage has already been done. There's no way to push the toothpaste back in the tube.

In the event that the Fed does clearly state their intention to end QE (and I think this is the most likely scenario) the minor dollar rally should drive a continuing correction in gold and silver. They are due for a daily cycle correction. It will only be a correction though. The dollar catastrophe isn't done yet and Gold's C-wave still has further to go (alot further).

The other scenario, and the one I think is less likely, Bernanke doesn't state a clear intention to halt QE and the dollar tanks. Thus initiating a final dollar crisis immediately.


Only an Keynesian academic would think lasting prosperity can be created, with no unintended consequences, by printing money. But only an imbecile would risk sending the dollar over the cliff that it's hanging on. Bernanke had better say the right things this afternoon or all hell is going to break loose in the currency markets.

525 comments:

  1. Anyone knw what time does Bernanke speaks (EST)?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Steven,

    Today's schedule for Bernanke

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-expect-tomorrows-watershed-fomc-press-conference

    ReplyDelete
  3. Steven, 2:15pm EST. Watch live at: http://www.forextv.com/Live-Video/Bernanke-FOMC-Press-Conference

    ReplyDelete
  4. "no way to push the toothpaste back in the tube."
    genius man!

    ReplyDelete
  5. What is the number we are looking for gold to open to negate the swing?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Morning At Ease.
    Still across the pond?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Bernanke will go on to some version of QE3. He has little alternative. There may be some amount of "dancing around" the idea or the words will change. But it has to be. Inflation of some level not only cannot be avoided, it is intended. It's the only way out... the only way to inflated housing values and support state pension funds and tax bases. Bonds will take a hit, but that's will be part of the offered sacrifice. OK.. yeah, that's my 2 cents.

    ReplyDelete
  8. 86d4life,
    Yes still away for another 3 1/2 weeks. Been checking in now and then. Getting some last buy set ups for the hopefully cycle dip.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Karl-

    Agreed, but it will not be called QE. It will be given some benign, perhaps Orwellian name like 'Recovery Support Program' or 'Treasury Stabilization Program'. And in the short term,it may simply be continued reinvestment of maturing treasuries, but there will certainly be no liquidity withdrawals. This close to an election cycle, the Fed rarely countenances anything that raises the ire of a sitting administration.

    I'm betting on hawkish talk, but dovish substance.

    ReplyDelete
  10. 3rd scenario: The Bernanke announces a reverse split in the dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  11. I haven't been to this site in a while (aside from yesterday). Can someone please explain if this 'C Wave' is the final shabang for gold? Or just the final leg up before a (potentially) long consolidation/correction period before another series of waves takes gold even higher. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  12. I love the toothpaste idea... very telling...

    ReplyDelete
  13. Squirrel,
    Good one. Or how about the new write your own dollar; just put in the apropriate number of zeros.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Danno-

    Don't know if you're a subscriber- it sounds like not. I'd urge you to subscribe - Gary is pretty explicit about all of this in his nightly letters. And you can slo pick it up by looking at Gary's comments on the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  15. Anybody,
    I`m watching SPY in pre-trade and there are over a million shares a minute trading and it has been building to this level for almost an hour and the volume is increasing. What is this? I see this on GLD once in a while too but mostly on SPY

    ReplyDelete
  16. T.J. Yes, the new name will be part of the "dance." Many of the states have been living beyond their means for years. Their pension funds are underfunded by mutiple Trillions! Housing values have devestated real estate taxes and layoffs have hurt income taxes. Some are near bankruptcy. A market down turn of 40% will kill them. The Fed could even orchastrate inflating all currencies world wide. Then it will all end in rebalance at a hirer level... Gas will be $6.00 gallon but wages will be up 40% too. Then "all fixed!"

    ReplyDelete
  17. skeptic squirrel, that was funny!

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/016/400cflvb.asp

    ReplyDelete
  18. dollar bounce immeninent, ben's speech coming down.

    gold price and dollar can move upwards together.

    gold still in run away move point which I believe is at 1490.

    now for timing an entry - gold has already dipped to 1492 (could that be the brief cycle low?), it's trading much higher at 1512 already so it's game on to some.

    lets see how this unfolds by 1:30

    ReplyDelete
  19. I went ahead and doubled my gold futures position at 1510 with a small stop.

    I suspect the bottom is in an this continues to creep up. I'm not risking more than 1% of net worth on the play.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Indeed, unless Bernanke kills this move, it looks like it wants to move higher...much higher.

    ReplyDelete
  21. More often than not, the move into a major meeting/announcement it to be faded.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Time of FOMC minutes release and Uncle Ben press conf. Times are Eastern Daylight Time:

    The FOMC will release its decision on monetary policy at 12:30 PM. It will be followed by a news conference, the first of its kind, from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke at 2:15 PM.

    ReplyDelete
  23. yeah it's speculative money going in, i agree to fade this trade end of trading day. lets see what happens at comex close before ben talks.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Poly,

    Dumb question:

    What do you mean by "faded"?

    ReplyDelete
  25. If we don't move up and my stop is close when they are about to announce I might close the position I just added and just deal with things after. Taking things as they go - winging it a bit.

    Overall I might mention that I highly suspect gold will rally a strong $50 or more this week and set off the stage for the final few weeks of this thing. Of course the pullback and dollar recovery is the alternate scenario as gary mentions (or even an END of the C here if the fed did something really wild), but I give that less than 50% odds.

    ReplyDelete
  26. It means prepare for several fake outs on the day the Not Federal/No Reserves Chairman is speaking.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Just means the moves before a meeting and the initial impulsive moves in reaction to the news is often not reversed. So the initial move "is to be faded", meaning to take a trade against that move.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Should read "reaction to the news is often reversed"

    ReplyDelete
  29. yeah, it's not an easy week to trade the market. a couple of low vol days this week. so no one's making any big moves.

    it's not always easy, but it's things are at timing points/turning points at the moment. and the speech can provide some sense of direction.

    so i'm just sitting on my hands. i have my positions already working but i have some captital to deploy as I think other here too are waiting..

    TZ hopefully it works out, it's a gamble man but you got your stops.

    ReplyDelete
  30. It is usually the initial move after the minutes should be faded. But this does have the feel of a fade.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Kal,

    (I posted late last night under the former thread, so I thought I'd repost).

    Sorry to not get back to you quicker. Just now catching up.

    To answer your question, I averaged in to my May 39's between 3/22 (at .89), the 24th (at $1.18) and the 25th (at $1.24). Sold all of it Monday morning (4/25) at 6:31a.m. PST at $8.05. Roughly 680% in a month. It was a nice trade, but as I'm sure you know, it doesn't always work out that way.

    As for my SLV 50's, I don't really consider it a lottery play in that I fully believe the silver story and have the utmost confidence in Gary's analysis, together with the analysis of others I trade with.

    That being said, I am careful about position size. I want juice, but balance the risk. This is why I rarely am totally invested and almost never allow myself to go into margin. I know how much I can lose and am careful when I go out of the money to not go anywhere near my freak out point so I don't make emotional decisions.

    Gary has provided wonderful and careful advice about how to safely play options and about the importance of learning them before using them. Just stick with his counsel and you'll be fine. Best of luck to you!

    ReplyDelete
  32. Looks like an exciting day ahead!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Poly,

    So is this the way you would read it? --> PM's are moving up (since yesterday's low). If they continue moving up into FOMC announcement, it's likely they will head south on the announcement itself.

    ReplyDelete
  34. So the scenario we'll all hoping for is: PM's tank on the announcement, then late today or tomorrow that move is reversed and they rocket higher.

    ReplyDelete
  35. gold has opened up, probably a good place to add to shorts on this early "strength"

    ReplyDelete
  36. Pima its unlikely the reversal will be so quick, more likely the dollar bounce will have to play out before it tanks again, around 9 May

    ReplyDelete
  37. Pima, not trading that thought specifically, just threw it out there because this major meeting coincided perfectly with overdue expectations of a cycle low in both Gold and the Dollar. There is no better setup and a good rally into this annoucnement when expectations for a move to a low a high made me think "fade"

    ReplyDelete
  38. TZ, I had your entry at 1506 last night. Why 1510 if you don't mind sharing.

    ReplyDelete
  39. ...the market will do anything on helichopper benny speaking... I think unless he says something wild the market already has it planned in. It seems their policy lately has been not to say anything that will get the markets too wild on purpose..it could also change who kknows...

    ReplyDelete
  40. Doesn't hot money know the details before it goes public?

    These are strong moves this morning in the metals.

    Gotta,

    The bet was between Gary and Doc and it was whether or not the S&P would make it back to a high. Gary bet no, Doc bet yes. It ha taken a while, but SPX finally made it yesterday.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Who cares what Benny says, as long as they maintain their "strong dollar policy"?

    LOL!!!

    ReplyDelete
  42. opening position here with 1% stop will get wiped in the couple of minutes leading to the announcement when the volatility spikes

    ReplyDelete
  43. BRIAN,

    Don't know what "had my entry last night at 1506" means. That you EXPECTED me to buy then?

    I rarely will buy in the middle of the night, you just asking for a fast loss on low vol moves.

    My thinking is the following:
    1) I think everybody INCLUDING this board is looking to buy and looking at yesterdays lows and saying "huh..that CANT be the low, CAN IT????? Hmmmm...Let me WAIT and see. I THINK it will go lower"

    2) they are also thinking "well...I want in and more, but I SHOULD WAIT until after the fed to be prudent"

    But I think everybody else is doing the same thing even though the fed has made a good deal of effort to seeminly telegraph what they are going to do. The markets are way too fragile for surprises and I think they will do almost exactly what they have hinted at - mostly stop QE2 in June but keep rates low and reinvest whatever they have in treasuries.

    So...I think there is still a ton of possible buying, but for those two reasons everybody is waiting or faking each other out as it creeps higher and higher against them. Slowly bit by bit people are capitulating, but the 'recognition' hasn't hit yet.

    We'll see. I'm not risking huge, but I think it might work out.

    ReplyDelete
  44. I'm also not touching silver for now.

    I can't buy it large with a small stop like gold and for reasons yesterday I'm not confident it is the better investment at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Thanks Wingman. Great trade. I appreciate you posting... Yeah, I'm just mirroring Gary and trying to keep an eye on what happens around my little investment. I have quickly learned to trust Gary as well, so I'm not worried if I don't get too smart and try something cute! I'll leave those moves to you. Haha. You're a poker player anyway, right?

    ReplyDelete
  46. Alex,

    In response to your comment on the previous thread, by the time I sold this trade had swelled to roughly 25% of my entire portfolio, so what started as a decent position, quickly became a huge trade...banking what some would be happy making in a salary for a year.

    As for the photo, yeah, it's Mammoth. I'm in South Orange County (about 1 hour up from San Diego), right on the coast. Beach at my doorstep and local mountains two hours away. It really is nice living in a place where I rarely wish I was somewhere else :)

    Have a great day, and thanks for the great trading tips you regularly post and the friendly tone you always display!

    ReplyDelete
  47. There's nothing wrong with waiting till the Fed meeting. If the dollar tanks and gold and silver shoot up then the two day dip was the cycle low and today is day one of a new cycle.

    That means there's still potentially another 20+ days before a top. Missing one day is no big deal. The move from $1510 to $1650 is still a huge move.

    If the dollar rallies and gold and silver correct then you saved yourself having to weather quite as much draw down.

    There's no need to jump the gun here. Just sit and watch. We'll know by the end of day.

    ReplyDelete
  48. JK about the poker, Wingman! Sounds like you've done your homework.

    ReplyDelete
  49. I like Gary's plan. The G-train will be boarding after 2:15 pm!

    ReplyDelete
  50. When answering questions, SB's standard answer this afternoon: "Can not rule it out."

    ReplyDelete
  51. Golds only a few dollars away from all time highs. Looks like we may get a repeat of 2006 where we had silver correct hard after a parabolic run up and then for the next month and remainder of the C-wave, gold kept making news highs while silver just came back up to make a double top.

    ReplyDelete
  52. TZ,

    Your four-point post yesterday with regards to why silver might not be the best investment going forward was very well thought out. I actually printed a copy.

    ReplyDelete
  53. TZ, I will just have to check the chart and see if I find something appealing at 1510 like I saw at 1506.

    Something tells me this thing will leave people chasing again.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Gary,
    Is a correction usually only two days? And could a brief Benny bounce be followed by a dollar drop and the usual $25 gold correction?
    Russ

    ReplyDelete
  55. IMO the surprise is to the upside today with the fed speaking. After all, is there anyone anywhere who isn't expecting them to prop up the dollar? So doesn't it seem likely the downside to metals is already priced in?

    I for one don't want to miss any buying opportunity on weakness during a parabolic C wave move (which is why I was buying yesterday). Nevertheless, one has to do what they're comfortable doing.

    ReplyDelete
  56. >There's no need to jump the gun here. Just sit and watch. We'll know by the end of day.

    My buy is unusual and I normally wouldn't make it. Clearly I may lose.

    Doing something before it is "safe" or "obvious" allows smaller stops and higher leverage. Once a trade is clearly "good" it usually becomes more volatile and open to correction.

    Just wanted to mention what I'm doing for whatever it is worth. I think high odds I get stopped out actually, but we will see.

    PS: I'm 3.5x leveraged now.

    ReplyDelete
  57. >TZ, I will just have to check the chart and see if I find something appealing at 1510 like I saw at 1506.

    There was no magic at 1510, it was simply the point this morning when I decided to give it a chance by buying. (And we sorta have a reverse H&S pattern over last 2 days at that line also).

    I'm out of that buy if we cant hold the lows overnight.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Usually a daily cycle decline will last 3-6 days. However in a runaway move the decline just has to cover a standard correction size. That can happen in one or two days.

    ReplyDelete
  59. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  60. DG, stil short NSQ? Nice one again!

    ReplyDelete
  61. Wow, impressive moves in Silver here

    ReplyDelete
  62. Stopped out. So much for my great idea.

    ReplyDelete
  63. I haven't read all the posts. This is probably in there somewhere:

    12:30 EST Fed statement released

    2:15 EST Bernanke "propaganda conference"


    The other Fed procedure changed: the Fed "will release economic projections of policy makers 3 weeks earlier" than it used to. I assume they're talking about the Fed minutes here.

    ReplyDelete
  64. Now if we could muster an impressive drop over the next 3 hours, that would be a very nice fade possibility and setup to mark a cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  65. At just 2x gold and no silver exposure, I feel naked.
    die silver die!
    :)

    ReplyDelete
  66. There we go. We re-tested that neckline last night and it looked like a low risk entry for a person that likes tight stops. Nothing more other than we love to dig into your brain because we know it bigs you!! J/k

    ReplyDelete
  67. Jay + Alex,

    What are your thoughts on former glory boy GPL? Has it dropped enough and forgotten to the point where it could be an excellent candidate for the final run?

    Looking at the 6 month daily chart, it's fast heading back to test it's Dec 2010 twin peaks of $2.93 which also happens to be the breakout point in Feb -2011. Another $0.20 drop and this former high flyer might be worth a good look?

    ReplyDelete
  68. If you have time sometime today, and want to see the very definition of "breathtaking ignorance in print", go check out this David Weidner column over at MarketWatch. He is sarcastically making the case against gold, and it's obvious he has NO understanding of gold or this global monetary crisis we're in.

    These so-called "financial columnists" should be sued for malpractice:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-gold-2011-04-26?link=mw_home_kiosk

    ReplyDelete
  69. Sounds like a great opportunity to buy if silver drops again!

    ReplyDelete
  70. wow, Oil is getting trashed!! Nice, nice...

    ReplyDelete
  71. jhnewman,

    That's right, it's all propaganda.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Sophia we definitely have different definitions of getting thrashed

    ReplyDelete
  73. I'm still sitting tight, but as the miner indexes get closer to levels where I'm willing to take a shot, I might soon have to put buy orders in.

    My limit prices remain a ways below current prices. I prefer to sww this action after the criminal Fed wraps up, but since I give them ZERO credence, I have no problem getting in before it opportunity presents.

    ReplyDelete
  74. So Poly...is a fade the same as a "head fake"?

    ReplyDelete
  75. POLY

    I drew this up last night for myself...hoping for the 43.00 area myself.

    You're like a mind reader :)

    This is SILVER, and so 'will it' or 'wont it' is my risk

    http://www.screencast.com/t/QoDpLkfKzT

    ReplyDelete
  76. Shalom: I'm amazed you'd admit it!!! ;^)

    ReplyDelete
  77. POLY

    Obviously NOT hoping for the 43.00 area, as though I crazily expect it to go that high, LOL

    Hoping for the $3.oo area, then look to possibly buy.

    ReplyDelete
  78. jhnewman,

    Only here in private, the BS is for later! :)

    KAL,

    Yes, NUGT is on the list, as well as SVM, EXK and PHYS so far. Still nothing done, but for example, I'll start to buy NUGT in the mid-$35 range this morning if it presents.

    I'm only risking 2% of total capital on this trade, with very wide stops. I'll give NUGT a $4 stop to figure appropriate size.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Poly-

    Might be worth throwing a couple bucks at it for the final run.

    I've got "silver miners fatigue" right now. It's a illness that makes you puke when you pull up a chart of one of the silvers like Silver Weaken, Little Pussycat Silver (formerly Great Panther), and the former SIL ticker now known as SIC.


    Joking aside, I still think these boys can run if Gary's thesis is correct which I think it is. TZ says miners will suck wind from here on out.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Alex,

    nice chart work. will put this on my list of potential buys.

    ReplyDelete
  81. I'll take a shot on SVM below $12.90, and give it $1.50 stop

    ReplyDelete
  82. And if nothing goes lower from here, I'll sit tight until tomorrow.

    ReplyDelete
  83. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  84. If we don't get a nice slide to buy into today (or tomorrow moening), I'll most likely only own gold etfs for the remainder of the C-wave.

    PHYS and DGP

    ReplyDelete
  85. >TZ says miners will suck wind from here on out.

    No. Actually both gary and my comments can be correct.

    I simply said they tend to not outperform straight metal in the final stages here - which clearly appears to be true so far. Nothing prevents BOTH going up.

    If silver went up 50% and slw went up 44% both gary and I would still be correct. Everybody still wins. My conjecture was on how to win the best with least company specific risk. That's all.

    We can all pick apart the market remains for the truth after this C ends.

    ReplyDelete
  86. GLD is getting down close to yesterday's low price.

    ReplyDelete
  87. Thanks SB for sharing your logic. Good luck this afternoon! You got a new suit for the cameras?

    ReplyDelete
  88. I have been out of the miners for some time and will not be back into them nearly in the size I was before. They may or may not play "catch up" but I don't see the point in guessing. We have something we know will go up if gold hits $1650. There are several ways to leverage the gold move, so I don't see the point of miners at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  89. (In the voice of Gomer Pyle):

    "Well, surprise, surPRISE!!! Gee, Andy, the dollar's popped to almost 74!!! Who'd a thunk it?"

    ReplyDelete
  90. Alex, nice chart! :)

    It's EXACTLY what I noticed in the chart when I asked......

    ReplyDelete
  91. TZ-

    I hear ya. At this point, the miners are acting like the move is all over for them. A lot of work to be done down the stretch, but Gary has watched these markets more than me and thinks they will shine. At this point, I'm still trying to decide how much of my $ will be dedicated to them.

    ReplyDelete
  92. POLY-JAYHAWK-BASIL

    Jayhawk said.."I've got "silver miners fatigue" right now. It's a illness that makes you puke when you pull up a chart of one of the silvers like Silver Weaken, Little Pussycat Silver (formerly Great Panther), and the former SIL ticker now known as SIC."

    So I am guessing ,BASED ON THAT,it is now a buy! :)

    The chart looks like one of those 'shake-outs, false break to the downside'..but it still looks scary.

    The thing that I will do is this- watch the support/resistance line and try to buy a smaller position close to it, and if it breaks below that..I'm out.

    If it just doesnt run and others do, I'm out and will redeploy cash where it works best for me.

    If it starts running up, I will add to my position.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Alex-

    Exactly what I was thinking. Sentiment on silver miners is getting low over here so most likely a "buy"!

    ReplyDelete
  94. SB,
    So you are done with silver for the remainder of the C wave? Can you briefly recap the logic of getting out of silver. Seems lots are thinking that way. Is it just a "too much of a good thing" reasoning?

    Too stretched = too much risk?

    ReplyDelete
  95. Hippie,

    I was only in miners later round, besides my physical holdings. I haven't given up on silver and it's still the best bull going, however it's a bit extended so for new trades I prefer to be in primarily gold this round.

    Gold has held up, is less volatile, and is less likely to do much damage this late in a C-wave if things don't work as planned. It also won't rip higher as much as silver if things work as expected.

    I prefer to limit my risk this late in the C-wave is all. And I wouldn't even consider selling my physical, while I might nibble on some silver etfs along with larger gold purchases.

    If one has a strong hand in silver right now, I'd be content to play it through.

    ReplyDelete
  96. And some of the miners I'm willing to own are silvers! :)

    ReplyDelete
  97. Hey experienced folks. I am looking to move my IRA and taxable accounts out of my current bank to a more user-friendly web-based experience after this C-wave ends. What do you all suggest? Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  98. Here's an even better mugshot, if anybody is interested in using for an avatar. :)

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/watch-todays-215-pm-fomc-press-conference-live-and-interruption-free-here

    ReplyDelete
  99. Go TBT! I am hoping/expecting that the charade and foolishness of buying Treasurys will soon become clear to the market.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Yeah POLY

    I noticed when you asked , you mentioned the $2.93...so maybe I should have used a java chart like I used to and got the exact #'s. Instead I drew a fat line to $3.00- I am getting lazy and shall pay for that! SO...stop at $2.93

    It's funny that you guys can read my charts. I like to break it down and look at everything for all the probabilities, but my wife see's them and says..."Hey, are you drawing a leopard? Are those eyes?

    ReplyDelete
  101. Gary,

    Have we covereed enough of a correction IF this is a runaway move?

    ReplyDelete
  102. Nothing done this morning, so I'll just have to be patient.

    Be back later, after Benny wraps up.

    ReplyDelete
  103. No reason at all to believe that it will be anything but the same old same old. ie. He will say. U.S. has a strong dollar policy, while in the background he is working on the next plan to print dollars.

    He will say, The economy is showing clear signs of recovery but we see no reason to end QE II early.

    Expect a small dollar bounce. Might last as little as one day.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Yeah, right, "Shalom".

    What you're REALLY saying is: "I've gotta go put the finishing touches on the Fed statement, and then put on my TV makeup". (The kind that doesn't run when you start to sweat.)

    ;^)

    ReplyDelete
  105. JAYHAWK

    I see 'ill sentiment' on miners too, but I have to tell you...I remember everyone saying when AG began to pullback from $26 "AG went straight up, If it gets to the gap at $17, I will definitely buy!"
    Its at $20 and no one wants it.

    EXK back to the $10 break out is a screaming buy, but no one wants it here , saying its broken at $11. I still love that one.

    ReplyDelete
  106. personally i think weve already had that 1 day bounce with the down grade, surely a longer dollar rally is needed to convince others that the D wave decline has begun, 1 day wouldnt cut it for me

    ReplyDelete
  107. Marxist!

    He will choose his words carefully. He will end QE2..We alla know that..Its on the financials here in Sweden.

    I Do not expect any correction in precious metals either..Rather an upswing.

    What can he do? End QE2 and then? What can happen? Its such a mess now so he actually cant say to much..Nah..Neh..Maybe..And so on..

    ReplyDelete
  108. I'm thinking what will get us down to Gary's gold buy point. Maybe a 25 basis points increase in the fed rate this afternoon? That will tame some of the bullishness around here.

    ReplyDelete
  109. Alex,

    EXK has already bounced off of 10.5 three times. Won't get to 10. :)

    Best,
    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete
  110. Bob-

    Yes and took your advice and bought those SLV May 50's with my life savings! ;)

    I actually just emailed you back bro.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Bullishness?

    Everyone is expecting a correction.

    So someone must be sacrificed..:-)

    Me and TZ then? lol

    ReplyDelete
  112. KAL,

    I'm happy with Thinkorswim (TOS). GREAT charting package with real time data at no charge.

    Lots of folks here like Interactive Brokers, but I believe their charting package is more limited than TOS's.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Took a little nibble on some SLV calls here. Just adding a bit to positions I already have. Gold and silver both holding up fairly well here given the bounce in the dollar.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Jayhawk, it was the April 29 50's you need to buy. You are confusing me with Wingman. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  115. Is the TOS charting package free? Do you have a link? I open a TSO account, but they want about $3,500 to fund the account.

    ReplyDelete
  116. Good to see people are getting nervous about silver and bailing. Sets it up nicely for a move higher. I am sticking to the plan instead of basing my actions on "well it could do this, but it could do that too!"

    ReplyDelete
  117. Feeling totally naked and hearing Gary's words echoing "I told you so", I decided to take a position around the lows of the day. So I'm in at about 40%, all SLV and GLD calls.
    With Bernanke speaking and fear off a dollar collapse, prudent to have a stake. I still feel a fast but impressive dip is on the cards, which I would use to deploy another 40% into.

    ReplyDelete
  118. DG, I would certainly wait for this chart to break down first before buying TBT. Bonds have actually worked lower under QE.

    http://screencast.com/t/QdoIZh2OH

    ReplyDelete
  119. I believe the Fed announcement is at 12:30 and the news conference at 2:15. Is that correct?

    ReplyDelete
  120. Good summary from Turd on the tightrope Bernanke is walking:

    http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/04/things-ben-will-say.html

    ReplyDelete
  121. Poly, Bob and others (can't think of who else does options),

    If you don't mind, can you please educate me on options?

    how do you know if you wanna buy ITM or OTM or DITM calls

    at this point, I'm guessing that most are buying DITM calls?

    also how do you determine what calls to buy?

    you can email me at nikeboy2008@gmail.com if you'd like

    ReplyDelete
  122. JohnsM,

    yes, TOS charting and trading platform is free. You can download it to your computer.

    https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/displayPage.tos?webpage=softwareLobby&displayFormat=hide

    If you open an account with them, I would think they would want you to fund it, otherwise why have the account? The trading platform (which includes the charting stuff) is "free" because they expect you to trade and they do get commission on your trades. I pay .0125 per share for stock trades, $3.00 minimum, $7.95 maximum, and $1.50 per option on option trades.

    You'll have to talk to them about funding if you need help there. Their customer support has been great. I do most of my support stuff either via a live chat or by email. Haven't used the phone much, so can't comment on their phone support.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Poly-

    Can you share what month/strike you got on those? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Thanks a ton Pima. I will look into TOS. Sounds great pricing wise and platform wise. Have a great one...

    ReplyDelete
  125. Pima,

    SLV June $39's.
    GLD June $140's.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  126. Sorry typo, SLV June $38's.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Mish swapped his silver for gold, thinks silver's parabolic rise is unstable:

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/04/taking-silver-profits-swapping-silver.html

    And once again, Gary leads the pack.

    ReplyDelete
  128. The latest policy announcement is expected around 12:30 p.m. EDT.


    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110427/ap_on_bi_ge/us_federal_reserve

    ReplyDelete
  129. It should be noted and acknowledged that Bernanke is NOT printing money in the execution of QE2, contrary to what is often stated in this forum.

    That is not to say QE2 does not come with enormous risks of inflationary pressure (in a fractional reserve system, as borrowing and the velocity of money increases, so too will inflation, as the theory goes), but to state repeatedly that Ben is "printing money" is factually incorrect.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Looks like the leak was late, so they had to hold off a bit to let the tippees get their positions.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Tyler at ZH is just truly amazing. He get's info out so quick.

    Hopefully this is not a head fake.

    ReplyDelete
  132. In Short, No new easing....but not tightening yet either

    "In particular, the Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings and will complete purchases of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter. The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability."

    ReplyDelete
  133. Polly!

    Same as me..Dont think we will go down but if we do I got some cash left to buy with..Around 30%!

    No reason to be nervous..Bernanke is with us.

    Shalom dont disappoint us?!?!

    ReplyDelete
  134. Nice spike following Fed statement. Not time to pull trigger, though. Immediate trading follwoing improtant Fed announcements are typically emotional jockeying. The direction of the market following statements like this are shown by the close and following open.

    But, most likely, we will get our tell over the next several trading hours. My guess, (the opposite of my gut rxn) is that this is not the time to load up, but I'll let the market speak before taking action.

    f

    ReplyDelete
  135. Dude: I do not use charts to generate my buys and sells. As you have seen I am batting about 80% on what I post here so will stick with that. Usually I add to shorts when chart support breaks as I have a good sized profit by then, and I will do that with TBT as well.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Somebody creates artificial demand by buying a product with money that is instantaneously created via computers.
    That is modern day "printing".

    ReplyDelete
  137. Just before Bernanke's propaganda conference:

    "The Fed will also release its updated economic forecasts for 2011 and 2012 just before the press conference begins."

    ReplyDelete
  138. Think "money supply stimulus" will catch on to curb the overwhelming popularity of the term money printing. I can't get the picture of the helecopter out of my mind.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/2009/02/obtaining_the_right_to_print_m.html

    ReplyDelete
  139. Request to billionaire:

    Please, please, please can you decisively take out $1515 ASAP (if you could be ever so kind as to take out $1520 it would be immensely appreciated).

    Signed,

    Middle Class American Gold Bug "Light"

    P.S. - If you don't feel like doing it today, it's okay to take care of it in the next week or so.

    ReplyDelete
  140. I guess we should lean towards a runaway move here...

    ReplyDelete
  141. Gold swing high negated/swing low formed.

    Dollar still hanging in vs. yesterday.

    Steady as she goes...for now.

    ReplyDelete
  142. The rule I heard over at Minyanville:

    -- the first move out of a Fed statement is usually the false move.

    Since 1 minute GLD spiked up, that would argue that the real move will be down.

    I haven't "back-tested" this rule at all, but there are some pretty savvy traders on that site.

    ReplyDelete
  143. ....everything is OK....still some headwinds but getting better all the time....I like good stuff, not bad...

    ReplyDelete
  144. Shalom: I hope you're pancake makeup is on thick. You don't want to let 'em see you sweat at 2:15. ;^)

    ReplyDelete
  145. seekthruskin,

    You are technically correct. However, the reason that he is not technically printing money has to do with future intent. During QE The Fed IS creating new money to buy Treasuries. New money IS being created, so why is this not considered "printing money"? It's because at some time in the future the Fed plans to withdraw the money they have printed during QE by selling the Treasuries that the bought during QE.

    So long term it's a wash. But short term money is being printed.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Here I am after makeup, takes years off, though I'm gonna keep my soothing smile. :)

    ReplyDelete
  147. LOL!!!!!!!

    I LIKE it! Especially you're soothing "bullshit smile"! ;^)

    ReplyDelete
  148. All you need to know is that the US govt and the Fed have backstopped the financial system and this:

    The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.

    Von Mises

    ReplyDelete
  149. In theory it's a wash. In the long-term ...

    In reality, who's going to buy the bonds back anytime soon? Figure a two decade bear market in bonds? Wonder what TBT will be worth?

    ReplyDelete
  150. I won't be making any decisions today.

    At the start of silver corrections, swing lows are commonplace and cannot be trusted.

    Off to lunch.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Greenspan:

    You nailed it. And they've chosen "a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

    Which means the best currencies, gold and silver, will be going through the roof in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  152. P.S. As you know, von Mises called this a "Crack-Up Boom", and that's what we're in.

    The global currency system that has been in place since 1944 is all coming down.

    ReplyDelete
  153. funny market movements after 12:30pm, the board numbers were going crazy.

    spy vs spy, it's a war was happening in the pits

    but lets see the commodity disturbance come 2:15pm

    sit tight..

    this time fundamentals, technicals take a back seat.

    it's emotion that's ruling today.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Edwin: Fed statement came out at 12:30.

    ReplyDelete
  155. I have no idea what to make of this but I'm disappointed that Bernanke didn't give a shout out to the SMT bunch here.

    ReplyDelete
  156. Poly,

    Thanks for posting your option buys.

    Other traders, please post your recommended strike price and month for SLV and GLD options.

    I am looking to buy some more.

    ReplyDelete
  157. When they backstopped and literally guaranteed the whole system (i.e., going "all in"), they sealed the dollar's fate.

    Before doing that, they could have abandoned the credit expansion (causing a quick deflationary collapse). Now, if they try, they will kill the dollar (paradoxically).

    The dollar is doomed in either scenario.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Too many people waiting for a dip... chances are there is no dip. This is very late in the cycle, which is why the cycle low could have come and go already.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Miyagi,
    He may not have said it, but if you watched the video, he flashed the SMT gang symbols into the camera and then gave Timmy a chest bump.

    ReplyDelete
  160. PST,
    I missed that and I don't have Tivo.

    ReplyDelete
  161. LE FOU

    I walked away for a couple of hours and started to catch up on the blog...

    You spoke, EXK listened. Nice, now if only it will hold!

    that and GPL so far.

    ReplyDelete
  162. @Gotahaveit,

    Just to be clear, I bought to establish a position, I was all cash. If I already had a significant position, I would not have added more here, just an FYI.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Shalom

    Lol..You look really nice on the pic..I like the long hair..Feels better when you say that everything is ok..

    ReplyDelete
  164. Gold officially at new highs

    ReplyDelete
  165. Greenspansconscience,
    Agree with you. The Fed is effectively boxed in. If they continue with QE, then they'll destroy the dollar and send commodities/oil through the roof. If they choose to withdraw liquidity, interest rates will spike and the economy will roll back over. They have to choose their poison.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Gold fut's are staging a potential double top here. Not a prediction by any means. They are just showing resistance at the recent highs.

    ReplyDelete
  167. @Wav_ridah, shhhhh, so far yes :)

    ReplyDelete
  168. GPL just shot up ,22

    EXK up .73

    EGO up .33

    NG up .22

    MFN , etc etc etc

    ReplyDelete
  169. Is this the end of the correction?

    ReplyDelete
  170. Mr. Billionaire,

    Thank you very much.

    ReplyDelete
  171. There, gold just broke to a new all time high, 1520$+.

    ReplyDelete
  172. Gold futures just broke recent highs. Smooth sailing?

    ReplyDelete
  173. Definitely new highs now.... Silvers really picked up some steam

    ReplyDelete
  174. We've seen these turn before, so it's wait and see.

    Although it's very encouraging to see miners respond. Feels like last year SLW was up 5.5%

    ReplyDelete
  175. manic buying in the miners, seems like a good sign this thing might be off...

    ReplyDelete
  176. TZ,

    Thanks a ton for your gold long trade this morning. Even though you stopped yourself out it gave me the confidence to switch some over from silver to gold based on your overall reasoning.

    I greatly appreciate all of the wisdom and real time trades/updates from all of you here.

    As I mentioned before, I am too nervous/superstitious to post my trades and recommendations.

    ReplyDelete
  177. This is real looking to me, hope you didnt miss it

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.