Hope you're feeling better...food poisoning is terrible. Had it from Chinese at the First Wok in Manhattan several years ago. Thought I was going to die.
If not, take the time to feel better- you've been crystal clear about triggers, miners vs. silver, timing, etc.
Why would the Comex raise silver margins 2 times in a week?
The increased price of silver should account for an orderly increase in margin requirements over time, but twice in 1 week means a)they wanted to break a planned increase into smaller increments, b) facts in the market have changed in the past few days, or C) they are raising the margin rates in anticipation of future price increases.
I'm hoping it's B/C - but someone who knows more than I about the Comex might be able to shed more light. In any event, I've gotts believe it's bullish for Silver.
I've been listening to SB and what everyone is saying about miners leading the C-wave finale. I haven't discovered any reason not to invest some of my AGQ in NUGT. Anyone else feelin NUGT for the run-up? Any thoughts on SIL? Seems like SIL would allow some moderate exposure to the metal, as of course SLW also does.
Must be too early for me. I cannot see any 'New Trade Trigger' posting on the premium site. The last posting I see is made on May 28 and Gary says there's no report. That was last night.
Gary: Hope you are feeling better. I had food poisoning once---nasty!
A have a precise question and will try to be clear: It seems to me that if silver will has a horrible day it will come after an exhaustion candle or will have a profit-taking day that gets out of hand (a la 2006). Does that make sense? Seems highly unlikely to just gap open down 10% (what kind of news could there be?) IF one is able to watch the market pretty much tick by tick, and is experienced enough to pull the trigger and get out if profit-taking starts getting out of hand (want to guess who I am referring to?), does it make sense to hang tough with AGQ? I am not looking for guarantees, just positive expectancy. Ii think silver is not close to done, so the only risk is aa huge gap down. Thoughts, please.
Anyone have any comments about the dollar here? New low (slightly) early this morning essentially makes a double bottom with low that was made Wednesday after hours. Moving up strongly since this morning's low.
Maybe Gary is away, but I thought I heard him say once that if Silver is down big overnight, you will wake up with a huge gap down in AGQ, and then sell on a panic sell-off.
I say..."BING" , the captain has NOT removed the fasten seat belt sign, but please...feel free to roam about the cabin-just dont cry if you clunk your head during any major turbulence :)
My biggest worry would be for an event during non-market hours to take place. Since silver is so thin, it doesn't even need to be a logical event. Some guy sells, that triggers other sells, and you are just stuck gapping with your mouth open waiting to sell your AGQ...
I am out of silver, as an exception to my turkery rule, due to the parabolic move...burnt once, not again...I believe we will re-visit this level in silver again, so I am not too worried about missing the long-term hold idea.
I find, IMHO, that the risk reward in silver is slowly narrowing. Getting close to a gamble..again IMHO
Keys (and even Alex), thanks much. Fair enough about gap risk. I will probably just put twice the dollar amount into DGP that I had in AGQ. We have a long way to go and i don;t want to miss the best party...but I also don't want to bump my head in the cabin (cute Alex.) Gold sentiment is unbelievably muted which tells me there is lots more to come.
[BTW, in case anyone gets the wrong idea, Alex and I needle each other all the time, and my remarks are meant to be taken in that light.]
DG, Your thoughts seem solid, but you see how wild this silver trade is getting. On the one hand I wish I had more agq for the returns but watching it here the last couple days is like a Dr. Seuss nightmare. You posted yesterday how it`s just going to keep getting wilder. If you can hold on and don`t need the Malox, great! Ultimately, it seems higher, maybe much higher, but at what cost?
My fear are those two looming overdue cycle lows, Gold and Dollar. I'm not comfortable just assuming a runaway. What does that mean? We could wake up in a few week times and gold down over $100 over night, Silver down $10?
I'm really hoping we print clear lows in the next day or two so we can feel comfortable about the final parabolic cycle. The metals feel like they want to breakout and run here this morning and today would be an excellent day to push higher and crack $50 comfortably. Then reverse course mid day, for a two day drop into cycle lows. One can wish.
Just so people can prepare mentally for the next profit-making opportunity: I will be buying a lot of EUO when this PM rally ends and the dollar bottoms. It is the double short euro. The euro may not even exist as a currency after Spain, Italy, etc. eventually blow up. It is only rallying because the dollar is in intensive care. Once the dollar bottoms I expect the euro to really cave in. I of course will be short oil and Q's, but EUO will be a great one, IMO. I traded it last big euro drop and it was quite kind to me.
Elaine: There is a lot of split opinion on GDXJ. GLD (or DGP) has to work if gold rallies. GDXJ...? The miners have been dogs, but Gary expects them to play catch up. I myself will not be buying GDXJ.
What about the Aussie? That puppy is so tied to commodities and one of the best performing, it will take a huge hit. It's at $1.09 last I looked, the 1:1 parity was always a parity and it blew right by that.
Can anyone recommend a GLD call strike and expiration?
How far is far enough in the money? Gary likes .80 delta, right? I guess I can go with that, but expiration suggestions from some of you options wizards would be mui appreciated. Thanks!
aren't there likely a whole lot of triggers set around $50 that will make the switch tricky? Might one do something close-of-day or wait till a steady moment over $50?
What happens if i set up a conditional sell order based on SLV and then I get nervous and place another trade to sell - do I need to cancel that one or will it see I don't have the shares and not execute?
I don't have margin and should not be approved to short, I think.
I like Wes's formula, go with a DITM call where the premium is less than .50. Personally, I like less than .30. You generally have to go further into the money to get less and less premium. So each call will cost more. But you can still end up with a LOT of leverage if you want because with each call you're controlling 100 shares. If you buy the shares outright you'll spend 15 grand for 100 shares. Do the math and see how many DITM call options you can buy, even with a premium of less than .30. That's the kind of leverage you can get if you want.
I guess as a subscriber, this is one of the first times I've been a little confused by what we're doing here.
Silver is very overstretched but we're waiting to wring out a few more % points to hit some magic number before we bail on the metal completely to avoid that potential steep drawdown. Is that not quite an unfavorable risk/reward ratio - why not just move to gold now? But we're still sticking with lately underperforming silver miners.
It all doesn't feel right to me (is that why the strategy will work so well? ha ha).
I think they look ok here- but it still kind of bothers me that on a day when gold and silver are both up, they are dull.
AG hit its 50sma on the March pullback and may touch it again, and GPL broke below its 50, and bounced off of it on the way back up.
Most Miners dont look broken at all, but for days like this and they are in limbo..its a bit frustrating. I'm being patient until they really go one way or another convincingly.
Thanks Alex...bought a little of both yesterday looking for breakouts. I've just been holding AGQ and thought to venture out..spoiled I guess, not used to the red!
Miners should be about ready to take off for the great white north. Looking at my emotions, I have just about had it with miners and am ready to dump them and go all into gold.
Re. UGL vs. DGP. UGL's volume is about half that of DGP, but I just feel more comfortable using UGL since it's not an ETN...and UGL is ProShares. But that's just me.
Jesse, I am with you. I have had a large SLW position and have been questioning why I shouldn't just put it in DGP or somewhere else. Another down day today while gold and silver both move higher. I don't get it. But, for now I'll go with Gary's rec and keep it for a while longer. Surely the miners can't stay down forever if gold keeps pushing higher.
Driver, I'm with you in preferring UGL over DGP. Feel more secure in an ETF than an ETN, with UGL ProShare's gold equivalent to their AGQ. I've already taken some positions in it and the liquidity seems fine to me.
Thanks Pima. I got it. Don't want to pay for extrinsic value, but intrinsic value. Thanks! There's actually volume in the front month, too. Learning alot from you and friend Al Gore's cool "internet" invention. Good hunting to you!
If you need some comic relief, Kudlow and Kohorts are dissecting silver and gold on CNBC right now. The bimbette just said that there's plenty of silver to go around.
"I guess as a subscriber, this is one of the first times I've been a little confused by what we're doing here."
Well put, I agree, although I'm not trading that play. Either let AGQ run or get out now. But squeezing an extra 5% out of AGQ is like playing chicken on an LA freeway.
Poly:Shorting the Aussie would be great, but I trade ETF's so there is not vehicle for it. I like that idea though (Short some for me when the time comes. Alex will send you some money to invest on my behalf.)
Funmike: ZSL will work, but silver is a bit hairy and the fundamentals are very positive for it. There will be safer things to short.
Dude: When Gary gives the call that the dollar has bottomed buy EUO.
Alex: I am happy to pay for a plane ticket for you to CA. I'll just reimburse you when you get here. Why don't you come first class?
It broke down from the triangle, but those can be false moves, 'shake outs'.
Then it surged up about 75 cents (17%) in 1 day and hit the 50sma. Its currently pulling back about 50% of that move, to HOPEFULLY make another charge up to and thru that 50sma and above the apex of that tri-angle.
WKLY, it looks like a good reversal (just like FEB off of that 20sma), needing follow thru next wk.
http://www.screencast.com/t/QoDpLkfKzT
http://www.screencast.com/t/QXCRGza2
my first chart was Before the move that we just saw...next wk hopefully finishes it.
Just bought a few more lottery calls, SLW June 45's, I consider these my "Gary gamble" because he has the patience to believe the miners will perform going forward. Me, I am just disgusted with their performance. This is usually a good combination.
Thanks. I have some GPL and will just hang on for now. I can see your view too.
Posted this on Docs for anyone who cares. Miners-
To me, it looks like a high level consolidation here on the HUI. The daily decline into March was much more severe, dipping just under a 61.8% retrace of the whole first daily cycle move. We got around 50% this time. I was hoping for a close above this "flag" type pattern today. Could still get it. I think that would mean next week things could improve. Flag
This is definitely a "wear you out" phase for the miners. Those who hold decent positions will soon be vindicated or have egg on their faces.
I noticed when setting up the fibs, that the price is getting support here on 581 where the previous daily cycle topped and bounced of out of the March daily low. 581
NUGT beat GDX & GDXJ out of the March lows. 2x HUI makes more sense if you want to leverage gold miners. GDXJ has a lot of silvers in there (HUI has some silvers too, but I think GDXJ is heavier)
Guys: just my perspective, but I don't see why people are beating their heads against the miners wall. With DGP and options on GLD, what's the advantage? You can go heavily leveraged without them, and the miners may or may not work, whereas GLD is a lock.
My largest position is still AGQ and SLv calls and once $50 is tagged it will convert to Gold equivalents, but I still want to have some exposure to SLW and SIL.
If you want to do June instead of July, that's probably good too.
Yes, you can get DITM calls in GLD with premium of less than .30. You DO have to go very DITM. However, as I said, you can still get massive leverage with those strike prices.
Example: July 130 call has a bid of 2115/ask of 2140, extrinsic (premium) of .37.
So for the price of 100 GLD shares, you can buy 6 calls. That's 5 to 1 leverage, or 3 times the leverage you're getting on DGP.
June's are even better: 130 call has a premium of only 16 cents! price 2100. again 6 times as many shares with the calls than buying the shares outright.
Thanks for the update on miners, Alex. I have hung in there but was losing patience, and it was pissing me off to see some of my profit from GLD calls being negated by some of the miners being DOWN on the day! So I appreciate your analysis as always!
I have just added the spot metals to my charting software feed. This will include many, many years of history in both silver and gold, as well as other metals.
So far I have designed my screens for silver from measurements estimated from Stockcharts.
Just catching up here, but Poly, we did print clear lows. A 10% correction is clear. Also, according to Gary in a parabolic move all we look for is a $25-$35 correction in gold to confirm it, which is what we got.
Also, DG, I couldn't agree more with your GLD take. About a month ago I made a massive shift away from miners and into SLV and GLD calls and it has paid off handsomely.
I had already thought through the June/July thing and figured June was better based on the dollar cycle. Thanks for confirming. I think I was looking at June 132 and June 134, so looks like I understood you right. Thanks again for taking the time to explain!
I don't have a huge taxable account, most of my investments are in my IRA's. Will start converting to Roth this year, but with all the money Gary is making us, I may never finish! Haha.
The smaller taxable account keeps me honest with the money (no margin/calls/silly moves in the retirement funds keeps the wifey more relaxed!). So, I will use those good delta, low premium calls for the taxable account to maximize leverage, and stick with DGP, SLW, etc. in the IRA's.
Isn't it risky to put more than half of your portfolio in to options? I realize that you will buy the same $ amount as you would buy calls, but don't you still get more risk with the options?
I've given miners some thought and my current plans are to pass on them. I can get all the leverage I'll ever want from basic options.
As for mining fundamentals, if your cost of producing gold is $500, you get great leverage when gold goes from $600 to $700. But not much happens when it goes from $1600 to $1700. Seems to me the returns are always diminishing.
Basic options are much simpler to acquire skill in than are picking miners, IMHO.
The caveat I should have also posted is that leverage goes both ways. I myself am not comfortable with massive leverage, so I use the calls to give me the exposure I want and still leave cash available in my account. I believe Wes has said that he does this also.
One way to figure your exposure is take your account balance and figure out how many shares of GLD you could buy. That's 100 percent with no leverage. Double that number to get how many equivalent shares you would be controlling if you were in a double long etf like DGP.
For me that double long exposure is enough leverage and I personally don't want to go deeper than that.
So if you want the equivalent exposure of being fully invested in your account with DGP, then just buy the correct number of DITM GLD calls to give you the control of that many shares. When you do this, you'll have cash available in your account which is always a nice thing.
You can certainly make more if you go with higher leverage, but you also amp up the risk.
Good luck. I hope you (and all of us!) make a ton of money here!
SB: That's fair, but for myself I really hate being right on a prediction and losing out because I chose the wrong vehicle. I do expect the miners to catch up, but by far the bulk of my account is in AGQ and now DGP (I have a little GDX), but I am happy to take the sure bet and eschew the maybe-a-little-better one.
Gary, on this trade trigger, do you guys use the SLV "Ask", "Bid" or the "Last" price as the trigger? Does it even matter which one to use in this case?
I know there are a lot of EW haters out there, so don't read this... :-)
The move up from the Tuesday morning low on the 30 min chart has the look of a classic 5 wave up EW pattern. We're in the 5th wave now and it looks like 5 of 5 is playing out.
EW would say after 5 up, we'll get a pullback to somewhere around 38 to 50 percent of the move up. That would be into the 1520 - 1525 range, which is also in the range of the 4th of the 3rd, another common retracement area.
That would give us another buying opp.
The caveat (and those who hate EW already know this!), is that that possibility is just that--it's only one of several possibilities. The current wave up could extend before pulling back--that's another possibility. Or, the move down into the 1520-1525 area could happen, but that move down might not stop there.
However, if we do get that kind of pullback, I plan to pick up a few more GLD calls there.
"The reason you don't see miners going up as fast or equal is due to their rising input costs, issues with geopolitical unrest globally and the talk of many nations looking to tax the mining operations in their countries as well as management and environmental setbacks," says Terry Sacka, chief strategist at Cornerstone Asset Metals. Input costs include fuel for diesel-guzzling hauling trucks, electricity, ammonium nitrate used in explosives, machinery and workers.
Thanks Pima. I sorta had come to the conclusion after reading your posts, as well as some other more experienced people on the board, that having some cash on hand is nice.
I figured to do just what you said... Figure out how much DGP I would have held, say x shares, and then use the GLD calls to get an equivalent amount of leverage to match it. Maybe go 3 x GLD (1.5 x DGP), or something like that. But then, I'd also have cash to hold on hand. Great info... Thanks again.
"the upper channel line on gold has been limiting its advance since Wednesday's after hours trading"
How have you drawn that channel? The way I have drawn that upper trend line is connecting highs on Apr 18, 25 and 27. Gold, today, has already broken out, tested it back and then off higher.
Just love this gold action, sure getting a sense that sentiment is slowly switching over. If we're in a runaway and just a matter of 3-6 weeks from a C-wave top, then we could expect this action to the top without another real daily cycle low. Fear of losing such a trade has me getting in on some more OTM's to capture a blow-off, without too much capital.
Purchased 200 x MAY GLD $160 @ $0.28
Doubling up from few days ago, another 100 x JUNE GLD $160 $1.08 (now hold 200)
I have a bit of a dilemma here. Do we have any currency experts or Canadians that can answer this question. If I'm planning on switching out my silver for gold. I'll mainly want to put it in DGP and I know I can use HBU.TO but it's volume is anemic and if I wanted to get out fast I don't think that's going to happen. So that would mean I would have to do a large currency exchange from CAD to USD and I'd hate to lose out if I convert back to CAD when we get out for D WAVE. Right now we're sitting at around 0.95, any guess how low it can get? I'd just hate it if we went to 1650 gold that'll be 12% gain in DGP and then I'd lose another 5% on currency exchange if we go to 0.90 USD/CAD. I know I can just keep some of it in USD but I will need to exchange a lot of it back to CAD.
86d: Not sure what you are referring to. I rarely make day-to-day calls and do not remember saying there would be a quick rally in gold. Sounds more like a TZ thing...?
YLD...crimex delivery day for Silver...got to keep the price low, its a recurring pattern. No worries. its all good. If Gold stays here, silver will get over 50 next week.
Thanks I think I'm going to go that route too. I can probably hold out until the d wave is over before I need to exchange a lot of the USD back to CAD.
Have a question for those who use options frequently. I hold a large amount of DITM GLD July options, how long do you hold them, to the top?... or do you take profits along the way and buy into GLD or DGP to lower the risk level as we get further up. I would sure hate to see these profits gone on a drop or cycle down. Just getting nervous already, so need to know what is best plan to proceed as we go.
Ryan, That's just the way it is my fellow Canuck, however, the US$ will go back up at the D as was pointed out. Even if you lose 5% in the conversion, you should be making up more than enough for it on the C ride. I will leave all the converted funds into my US margin account and transfer back only when the exchange is favorable or I have to pay CRA, whichever comes first.
I have 70% silver and 30% gold in my portfolio..Today gold is showing some strenght.
Will it be like this the last week of the C-wave or will silver soon gain strength?
Im guessing that gold will move stronger for now but I think that silver soon will move hard and fast. Just a matter of time! I think that 50 in silver will be crushed easy!
Yeah, gold has seriously blasted thru both upper channel lines of both channels I had drawn (one steeper than the other, the less steep one going back further in time)
Poly mentioned that if we do indeed go parabolic (seems like we have), then we would expect gold to blow thru its upper channel line.
I'd say it would depend on the amount of leverage you're carrying. Lots of leverage, you might scale out little by little. I believe Poly has said that he does that.
But if you're at a leverage that's comfortable, you could just hold till we have signs of a top. I believe Gary is looking for something north of 1600.
I have more in gold than silver now, and while it looks especially good today I believe silver will have one more frantic rally to suck in the last buyers. Just doesn't feel like we have done enough yet. And gold has quite a bit more to run IMO. It should easily surpass $1650. We need some big headlines for me to even consider the rally close to over. We've still got a month before the dollar bottoms!
50 has been resistance all week. We essentially have a double top, last Sunday night and yesterday during normal trading hours. The next time it bumps up near 50, it should break right thru it.
Lots of folks are looking at 50 as a possible top. I'm thinking once it hits 50, it could keep on going, maybe just explode higher and end up at 60 in a week or two.
Ryan ... re Canadians and the exxhange. This is the way I play it ... I have a CDN account, full of cash .. i have a USD margin account. I purchase my USD stocks on margin ... so, yes, there are the carrying costs, but you dont have to worry about losing on the exchange rates.
Noted a few comments about miners and input costs ... OIL, etc ... can someone smarter than me then elborate on how those inputs impact a stock like SLW.
i was just wondering if you guys can tell me how I can calculate in percentage terms, the current price relative to the 200 or 50 dma? Gary mentions that for ex. silver or gold stretches 100 or 150% from the 200 dma moving average before a top, how does he calculate that?
Trader H, On any chart plug in the DMA you want, look at the price and the price that the DMA touches. Then, now price divided by DMA price. Example, price 48.55$, DMA price 33.22$. 48.55/33.22=1.4614 which is 46.14% over the DMA.
He he. My beard is quite impressive, is it not? Banana Ben has nothing on me, either facially or intellectually.
My previous avatar was the great libertarian anarchist Murray Rothbard, one of the founders of the Libertarian Party, the Cato Institute, and the Mises Institute, and maybe the greatest economist of the 20th century. (Although I'd not like to have to choose between Rothbard and Mises.)
This fine fellow is 19th century anarchist Lysander Spooner. Everything you need to now about his views is summed up in this short passage:
"But this theory of our government is wholly different from the practical fact. The fact is that the government, like a highwayman, says to a man: 'Your money, or your life.' And many, if not most, taxes are paid under the compulsion of that threat. The government does not, indeed, waylay a man in a lonely place, spring upon him from the roadside, and, holding a pistol to his head, proceed to rifle his pockets. But the robbery is none the less a robbery on that account; and it is far more dastardly and shameful. The highwayman takes solely upon himself the responsibility, danger, and crime of his own act. He does not pretend that he has any rightful claim to your money, or that he intends to use it for your own benefit. He does not pretend to be anything but a robber. He has not acquired impudence enough to profess to be merely a 'protector,' and that he takes men's money against their will, merely to enable him to 'protect' those infatuated travellers, who feel perfectly able to protect themselves, or do not appreciate his peculiar system of protection. He is too sensible a man to make such professions as these. Furthermore, having taken your money, he leaves you, as you wish him to do. He does not persist in following you on the road, against your will; assuming to be your rightful 'sovereign,' on account of the 'protection' he affords you. He does not keep 'protecting' you, by commanding you to bow down and serve him; by requiring you to do this, and forbidding you to do that; by robbing you of more money as often as he finds it for his interest or pleasure to do so; and by branding you as a rebel, a traitor, and an enemy to your country, and shooting you down without mercy, if you dispute his authority, or resist his demands. He is too much of a gentleman to be guilty of such impostures, and insults, and villanies as these. In short, he does not, in addition to robbing you, attempt to make you either his dupe or his slave."
If you like that, here's a page full of good stuff from Lysander: http://tinyurl.com/27g4nko
Hey Folks Getting my first chance to check in this morning..on vacation in AZ with the in laws.
I shifted for silber to gold last week on the overnight spike in Silver to 49.50. I got out in the premarket. Sold SLV at 47.20. Anyway, my experience has been a slow, but staedy uptick in DGP. I also hold GDXJ in mt accounts and GDX for my parents. These have been less steady, but generally up. When last I looked this morning gold was a bit stronger than silver. A one day sample is not significant, but it is the first time in recent memory that this has happened.
Anyway, I have let go of AGQ expectations of 10 percent moves daily, and am content to ride DGP while this final phase unfolds. I expect that DGP will offer 3 to 5 percent moves with increasing frequency over the next few weeks. That's sweet in my book.
DG, EUO will be aparty boat when the D-wave leaves the dock.
Back to the in laws and desert sun. Sorry bout typos in advance. On my bb. f
Trader H - to calculate how far above a moving average the price is, follow this formula: take current quote, divide it by the moving average price, subtract by 1, and multiply that by 100. As an example, say the current price is 150, and 10-day is 100. 150/100=1.5. Subtract 1, then multiply 0.5 times 100, and you get 50%. 150 is 50% above the moving average.
Gary.
ReplyDeleteDu you recommend to exit silverminer stocks also when we hit your sell trigger?
No just what I posted.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteThis is what you said:
"No this C-wave will end probably by early July. Then the D-wave will begin. Once that has run it's course then the next ABCD cycle will begin."
April 27, 2011 9:47 PM
This is why I think some people here are confused.
I must have typed July by mistake. I've always thought early June would be the end.
ReplyDeleteGary, should we be rolling SLW calls into September?
ReplyDeleteGary-
ReplyDeleteHope you're feeling better...food poisoning is terrible. Had it from Chinese at the First Wok in Manhattan several years ago. Thought I was going to die.
If not, take the time to feel better- you've been crystal clear about triggers, miners vs. silver, timing, etc.
Sorry Gary
ReplyDeleteThen I was mistaken.
Thanks for clearing that up Gary. I think everyone is back on the same page now.
ReplyDeleteGary, what made you stick to the original plan to exit silver at $50? I ask becasue you had said maybe you were going to stay with it a little longer.
Good morning everybody.
ReplyDeleteGary,
How are you feeling?
Oh ok I thought you did, thanks bamster. No biggie
ReplyDeleteWell it looks like the dollar is heading lower, which is nice.
It happened 16 years ago. I will never forget it. Acute food poisoning.
ReplyDeleteGlad to have you back and posting Gary.
ReplyDeleteI hope you are feeling better. Too many burritos I guess. Lol.
ReplyDeleteglad u r better gary. i m new subs and in learning process.
ReplyDeletesilver is close to $50, so getting ready to switch to gld.
http://screencast.com/t/Cwt8MUJL8aG
Why would the Comex raise silver margins 2 times in a week?
ReplyDeleteThe increased price of silver should account for an orderly increase in margin requirements over time, but twice in 1 week means a)they wanted to break a planned increase into smaller increments, b) facts in the market have changed in the past few days, or C) they are raising the margin rates in anticipation of future price increases.
I'm hoping it's B/C - but someone who knows more than I about the Comex might be able to shed more light. In any event, I've gotts believe it's bullish for Silver.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI apologize for asking while you're still recovering. I hope you're back in the pink soon.
Will you post purchases after the trade triggers fire? In the evening report? Or does it just depend on when the triggers fire?
Best,
Le Fou
Anyone now the approx price point for AGQ when the trigger from today is hit?
ReplyDeleteSteven
ReplyDeleteJust use the SLV price that Gary mentions on the premium site.
I did not see a new post on the trade trigger in the premium area.
ReplyDeletebob LH,
ReplyDeletelook under stops and trade triggers
Bob, it's in the stops and triggers area, look in the list of links on the right.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I missed it, but nothing was mentioned about buying GLD or DGP with funds that you have from exiting AGQ?
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDeleteI think go to lower half of page.
Steven ,
ReplyDeleteThe 52 week high for AGQ is $382.08
Ik think that will be pretty close.
I've been listening to SB and what everyone is saying about miners leading the C-wave finale. I haven't discovered any reason not to invest some of my AGQ in NUGT. Anyone else feelin NUGT for the run-up? Any thoughts on SIL? Seems like SIL would allow some moderate exposure to the metal, as of course SLW also does.
ReplyDeletethe upper channel line on gold has been limiting its advance since Wednesday's after hours trading.
ReplyDeleteAll I see is we are to exit, but nothing about reinvesting.
ReplyDeletePima, Gary has mentioned in his reports where he plans to move his sold AGQ funds. I still expect he shall do so.
ReplyDeleteMust be too early for me. I cannot see any 'New Trade Trigger' posting on the premium site. The last posting I see is made on May 28 and Gary says there's no report. That was last night.
ReplyDeleteGary: Hope you are feeling better. I had food poisoning once---nasty!
ReplyDeleteA have a precise question and will try to be clear: It seems to me that if silver will has a horrible day it will come after an exhaustion candle or will have a profit-taking day that gets out of hand (a la 2006). Does that make sense? Seems highly unlikely to just gap open down 10% (what kind of news could there be?) IF one is able to watch the market pretty much tick by tick, and is experienced enough to pull the trigger and get out if profit-taking starts getting out of hand (want to guess who I am referring to?), does it make sense to hang tough with AGQ? I am not looking for guarantees, just positive expectancy. Ii think silver is not close to done, so the only risk is aa huge gap down. Thoughts, please.
thanks, traderlady. Just surprised to not see specifics on that again. I'll just assume that part of the plan has not changed.
ReplyDeletebasil,
ReplyDeleteIt's under Daily Cycle Count/Stops and Trade Triggers
basil,
ReplyDeleteThen scroll to the bottom of that report.
basil,
ReplyDeleteThen look at the April 21 nightly report if you need to refresh your memory about the details of that
Anyone have any comments about the dollar here? New low (slightly) early this morning essentially makes a double bottom with low that was made Wednesday after hours. Moving up strongly since this morning's low.
ReplyDeletePima,
ReplyDeletegot it! Thank you! :)
No problem. I was stumbling around a bit too, had to dig to find which nightly report Gary had first mentioned this plan.
ReplyDeleteDG
ReplyDeleteMaybe Gary is away, but I thought I heard him say once that if Silver is down big overnight, you will wake up with a huge gap down in AGQ, and then sell on a panic sell-off.
I say..."BING" , the captain has NOT removed the fasten seat belt sign, but please...feel free to roam about the cabin-just dont cry if you clunk your head during any major turbulence :)
DG,
ReplyDeleteMy biggest worry would be for an event during non-market hours to take place. Since silver is so thin, it doesn't even need to be a logical event. Some guy sells, that triggers other sells, and you are just stuck gapping with your mouth open waiting to sell your AGQ...
I am out of silver, as an exception to my turkery rule, due to the parabolic move...burnt once, not again...I believe we will re-visit this level in silver again, so I am not too worried about missing the long-term hold idea.
I find, IMHO, that the risk reward in silver is slowly narrowing. Getting close to a gamble..again IMHO
DG,
ReplyDeleteI don't really expect silver to suffer an 06 moment but I just want to prepared if it does.
At this point we've all made so much money that I don't have a problem underperforming a bit by holding DGP and GLD calls instead of silver.
Besides if one wants to increase return just go heavier on the GLD calls and less in DGP.
Keys (and even Alex), thanks much. Fair enough about gap risk. I will probably just put twice the dollar amount into DGP that I had in AGQ. We have a long way to go and i don;t want to miss the best party...but I also don't want to bump my head in the cabin (cute Alex.) Gold sentiment is unbelievably muted which tells me there is lots more to come.
ReplyDelete[BTW, in case anyone gets the wrong idea, Alex and I needle each other all the time, and my remarks are meant to be taken in that light.]
If Gary is out of Silver, he will do what he posged in 4/21 write up.
ReplyDeleteQuestion: What percentage will be allocated to each of those two new trading vehicles?
Are percentages posted anywhere?
the silver miners AS USUAL have decoupled from from silver...this is frustrating
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteYour thoughts seem solid, but you see how wild this silver trade is getting. On the one hand I wish I had more agq for the returns but watching it here the last couple days is like a Dr. Seuss nightmare. You posted yesterday how it`s just going to keep getting wilder. If you can hold on and don`t need the Malox, great! Ultimately, it seems higher, maybe much higher, but at what cost?
Thanks, Gary. I assume you are feeling better by now. My episode lasted about 12 hours, but man what a 12 hours.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteFor those of us not purchasing options, should we just move the money to GDXJ or GLD?
Thank you.
Elaine
My fear are those two looming overdue cycle lows, Gold and Dollar. I'm not comfortable just assuming a runaway. What does that mean? We could wake up in a few week times and gold down over $100 over night, Silver down $10?
ReplyDeleteI'm really hoping we print clear lows in the next day or two so we can feel comfortable about the final parabolic cycle.
The metals feel like they want to breakout and run here this morning and today would be an excellent day to push higher and crack $50 comfortably. Then reverse course mid day, for a two day drop into cycle lows. One can wish.
Just so people can prepare mentally for the next profit-making opportunity: I will be buying a lot of EUO when this PM rally ends and the dollar bottoms. It is the double short euro. The euro may not even exist as a currency after Spain, Italy, etc. eventually blow up. It is only rallying because the dollar is in intensive care. Once the dollar bottoms I expect the euro to really cave in. I of course will be short oil and Q's, but EUO will be a great one, IMO. I traded it last big euro drop and it was quite kind to me.
ReplyDeleteElaine: There is a lot of split opinion on GDXJ. GLD (or DGP) has to work if gold rallies. GDXJ...? The miners have been dogs, but Gary expects them to play catch up. I myself will not be buying GDXJ.
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteWhat about the Aussie? That puppy is so tied to commodities and one of the best performing, it will take a huge hit. It's at $1.09 last I looked, the 1:1 parity was always a parity and it blew right by that.
Looks like Silver wants to really break free.
DG,
ReplyDeleteDo you think EUO will be a better play than ZSL when the dollar finally bottoms?
Thank you, DG. I am still holding GDXJ and yes, it is really not doing anything at all.
ReplyDeleteI will look at GLD or DGP.
Can anyone recommend a GLD call strike and expiration?
ReplyDeleteHow far is far enough in the money? Gary likes .80 delta, right? I guess I can go with that, but expiration suggestions from some of you options wizards would be mui appreciated. Thanks!
Gary, if possible, can you clearly state what percentages will be allocated to DGP and GLD once SLV is sold?
ReplyDeleteWes, we crack $50 without a cycle low print, you holding that core?
ReplyDeleteElaine,
ReplyDeleteIf you want the gold equivalent of AGQ then buy DGP.
Thanks DG for posting about EUO. I was pondering that earlier this morning and trying to figure out how to best do it.
ReplyDeletehttp://comments.socialtrade.com/lnk.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fscreencast.com%2Ft%2FZxzhNfLoMT
DG
ReplyDeleteDEFINITELY all in fun! :)
So please stop emailing me all those apologies and offers to "Fly me out to Cali for dinner on you"
Its O.K, man it's all good!
I will move all the funds from a sale of AGQ and SLV calls into DGP and GLD calls.
ReplyDeletearen't there likely a whole lot of triggers set around $50 that will make the switch tricky? Might one do something close-of-day or wait till a steady moment over $50?
ReplyDeleteGary or anyone, is there a reason to prefer DGP over UGL?
ReplyDeleteDG
ReplyDeleteI like that EUO idea, and I was planning on looking into DUG too.I wonder if OIL has a double etf, I havent looked into it (yet)
And as for Garys comment on the DGP, the volume has REALLY been pouring into it lately, a good sign on the upside.
All,
ReplyDeleteWhat happens if i set up a conditional sell order based on SLV and then I get nervous and place another trade to sell - do I need to cancel that one or will it see I don't have the shares and not execute?
I don't have margin and should not be approved to short, I think.
UGL has about 1/4 the market cap of DGP.
ReplyDeleteAlex,
ReplyDeleteDo you have a read still on GPL? How about AG?
Hot Rod,
ReplyDeleteI use fidelity and in that situation it won`t let me place the trade.
KAL,
ReplyDeleteI like Wes's formula, go with a DITM call where the premium is less than .50. Personally, I like less than .30. You generally have to go further into the money to get less and less premium. So each call will cost more. But you can still end up with a LOT of leverage if you want because with each call you're controlling 100 shares. If you buy the shares outright you'll spend 15 grand for 100 shares. Do the math and see how many DITM call options you can buy, even with a premium of less than .30. That's the kind of leverage you can get if you want.
I would go with July expiration.
ReplyDelete86,
ReplyDeleteThanks. I have fidelity, too.
I guess I will have to cancel and replace or straight cancel and do a new one.
Thanks.
Alex,
ReplyDeleteSCO is a double short crude etf.
Thanks Pima!
ReplyDeleteI guess as a subscriber, this is one of the first times I've been a little confused by what we're doing here.
ReplyDeleteSilver is very overstretched but we're waiting to wring out a few more % points to hit some magic number before we bail on the metal completely to avoid that potential steep drawdown. Is that not quite an unfavorable risk/reward ratio - why not just move to gold now? But we're still sticking with lately underperforming silver miners.
It all doesn't feel right to me (is that why the strategy will work so well? ha ha).
WMP
ReplyDeleteI think they look ok here- but it still kind of bothers me that on a day when gold and silver are both up, they are dull.
AG hit its 50sma on the March pullback and may touch it again, and GPL broke below its 50, and bounced off of it on the way back up.
Most Miners dont look broken at all, but for days like this and they are in limbo..its a bit frustrating. I'm being patient until they really go one way or another convincingly.
Thanks PIMA!
ReplyDeleteYou can't get Wes' formula going that far out. Plus we will be well into a D-Wave by July, no?
ReplyDeletePima, if I'm doing the math right, that's some really deep in the money call action... Way deep. Sound right to you?
ReplyDeleteCould this be the day where gold starts to outperform silver as the latter succumbs to profit taking?
ReplyDeletegold outdoing silver now
ReplyDeletewow - looks like DGP is a wonderful play :)
Thanks Alex...bought a little of both yesterday looking for breakouts. I've just been holding AGQ and thought to venture out..spoiled I guess, not used to the red!
ReplyDeleteAppreciate your help!
Silver's tried twice to touch 50..third time the charm??
ReplyDeleteMiners should be about ready to take off for the great white north. Looking at my emotions, I have just about had it with miners and am ready to dump them and go all into gold.
ReplyDeleteRe. UGL vs. DGP. UGL's volume is about half that of DGP, but I just feel more comfortable using UGL since it's not an ETN...and UGL is ProShares. But that's just me.
ReplyDeleteA thought today is "end of the month window dressing". I think miners may do better as usual in May plus earnings soon. We can hope, out of here :)
ReplyDeleteChart suggest SLW could trade nominally lower than 38.88 before proceeding higher. May buy some calls mid 38's.
ReplyDeleteTZ / Wave Ridah,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts this morning?
Thanks.
alex
ReplyDeleteDIG (oil up)
Dug (oil down)
cheers
Jesse, I am with you. I have had a large SLW position and have been questioning why I shouldn't just put it in DGP or somewhere else. Another down day today while gold and silver both move higher. I don't get it. But, for now I'll go with Gary's rec and keep it for a while longer. Surely the miners can't stay down forever if gold keeps pushing higher.
ReplyDeleteKAL,
ReplyDeleteWhat you're seeing is an example of why you stick to the front months on DIM's. If you need more time, you just roll them over later.
Little Kitty Silver basically just back tested the busted triangle.
ReplyDeletehttp://screencast.com/t/MOZ7OCEp3
Driver, I'm with you in preferring UGL over DGP. Feel more secure in an ETF than an ETN, with UGL ProShare's gold equivalent to their AGQ. I've already taken some positions in it and the liquidity seems fine to me.
ReplyDeleteThanks Pima. I got it. Don't want to pay for extrinsic value, but intrinsic value. Thanks! There's actually volume in the front month, too. Learning alot from you and friend Al Gore's cool "internet" invention. Good hunting to you!
ReplyDeleteRelative strength (weekly):
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UGL:DGP&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p54453170663
Get ready for the COMEX beat down to the close. I am short silver for the day trade, then flip long at 10:30. (my speculation account)
ReplyDeleteIf you need some comic relief, Kudlow and Kohorts are dissecting silver and gold on CNBC right now. The bimbette just said that there's plenty of silver to go around.
ReplyDeleteBob,
ReplyDelete1030 est?
@DA
ReplyDelete"I guess as a subscriber, this is one of the first times I've been a little confused by what we're doing here."
Well put, I agree, although I'm not trading that play. Either let AGQ run or get out now. But squeezing an extra 5% out of AGQ is like playing chicken on an LA freeway.
Been out for a while...
ReplyDeletePoly:Shorting the Aussie would be great, but I trade ETF's so there is not vehicle for it. I like that idea though (Short some for me when the time comes. Alex will send you some money to invest on my behalf.)
Funmike: ZSL will work, but silver is a bit hairy and the fundamentals are very positive for it. There will be safer things to short.
Dude: When Gary gives the call that the dollar has bottomed buy EUO.
Alex: I am happy to pay for a plane ticket for you to CA. I'll just reimburse you when you get here. Why don't you come first class?
JAYHAWK
ReplyDeleteFor a positive spin on GPL
It broke down from the triangle, but those can be false moves, 'shake outs'.
Then it surged up about 75 cents (17%) in 1 day and hit the 50sma. Its currently pulling back about 50% of that move, to HOPEFULLY make another charge up to and thru that 50sma and above the apex of that tri-angle.
WKLY, it looks like a good reversal (just like FEB off of that 20sma), needing follow thru next wk.
http://www.screencast.com/t/QoDpLkfKzT
http://www.screencast.com/t/QXCRGza2
my first chart was Before the move that we just saw...next wk hopefully finishes it.
Just bought a few more lottery calls, SLW June 45's, I consider these my "Gary gamble" because he has the patience to believe the miners will perform going forward. Me, I am just disgusted with their performance. This is usually a good combination.
ReplyDeleteAlex-
ReplyDeleteThanks. I have some GPL and will just hang on for now. I can see your view too.
Posted this on Docs for anyone who cares. Miners-
To me, it looks like a high level consolidation here on the HUI. The daily decline into March was much more severe, dipping just under a 61.8% retrace of the whole first daily cycle move. We got around 50% this time. I was hoping for a close above this "flag" type pattern today. Could still get it. I think that would mean next week things could improve.
Flag
This is definitely a "wear you out" phase for the miners. Those who hold decent positions will soon be vindicated or have egg on their faces.
I noticed when setting up the fibs, that the price is getting support here on 581 where the previous daily cycle topped and bounced of out of the March daily low.
581
Screwed that up. The move out of the March lows was rejected by 581. Sorry for the confusion
ReplyDeleteOn trade triggers, do you guys use the "Ask", the "Bid" or the "Last" price as the trigger?
ReplyDeleteDoes it even matter which one to use?
It will be interesting to see what the last hour of trading brings today.
ReplyDeleteBoth links went to the first chart. Try again on the Fibs.
ReplyDelete581
NUGT beat GDX & GDXJ out of the March lows. 2x HUI makes more sense if you want to leverage gold miners. GDXJ has a lot of silvers in there (HUI has some silvers too, but I think GDXJ is heavier)
NUGT
(Shh. I'm going to say something out loud to get the PMs moving. Don't pay any attention.)
ReplyDeleteWELL, FOLKS. LOOKS LIKE NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN TODAY. I THINK I'M GOING TO SHUT DOWN MY COMPUTER AND TAKE TODAY OFF. SEE YOU ALL ON MONDAY!
BEST,
LE FOU
What does an upside down cup and handle mean? is that what the 5 minute /GC chart is showing?
ReplyDeleteTulving has Krugs for $20 over spot. GSR under 32. Tempting to swap my ASE monster boxes out for gold.
ReplyDeleteSeriously how hard is this to understand? When silver hits $50 sell AGQ and SLV calls. Then put that capital into DGP and GLD calls.
ReplyDeleteCute Le Fou.
ReplyDelete(Good thinking Le Fou. I'll help.)
ReplyDeleteTHAT'S IT. I JUST SOLD INTO THE LAST BIT OF STRENGTH LEFT. THIS MARKET IS GOING NOWHERE. CNBC SAID IT'S A BUBBLE.
(he he)
Look at this sweet head and shoulders breakdown and then back test of the neck line! We should put all our money into shorting this thing!
ReplyDeleteSee if you can figure out the riddle.
here
SLW's rsi under 50 is just not good enough..
ReplyDeleteIs there other technical indicator we can look at?
OH you mean *sell* "AGQ" when silver hits $50 and then *buy* DGP - I get it now, yes I was using Babblefish before
ReplyDeleteRe: Upside down cup and handle on /GC
ReplyDeletemust be a good thing?
GLD up +0.66%
ReplyDeleteSLV up +0.64%
they are running neck and neck...Pima could be correct
Poly,
ReplyDeleteI see no reason to get out of silver. I will monitor my silver crash screen closely if and when the time comes.
Currently, my silver correction screen is giving the all clear, so currently no need to even watch the crash screen.
Jayhawk,
ReplyDeleteGDX upside down?
I don't feel so bad for buying some DGP at yesterdays highs anymore (plus I added the same amount at yesterday's low, so it averaged out ok anyway)
ReplyDeleteClose enough-HUI
ReplyDeleteNice little analysis on AXU. On my D-wave target list for long term hold.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/266156-alexco-resource-corp-emerging-undervalued-silver-producer?source=email_watchlist
jay, what is it?
ReplyDeleteGuys: just my perspective, but I don't see why people are beating their heads against the miners wall. With DGP and options on GLD, what's the advantage? You can go heavily leveraged without them, and the miners may or may not work, whereas GLD is a lock.
ReplyDeleteupside down HUI chart
ReplyDeleteIf you have Live charts,
ReplyDeletetake a look at 3 day , 5 minute w/ volume charts of EGO, NG , HMY, etc
Buying is coming in , breaking up over downtrend lines in some cases.
Thanks DG. I was thinking the same thing re: miners. Seems like it saves a ton of hassle and stress.
ReplyDelete(special request for portfolio update with the right GLD calls to buy? TX)
ReplyDeleteHey Felix, Pima (and Wes) have done a great job giving me info on the right calls to get into. Pima gives a recap a little ways up today's posts...
ReplyDeleteGLD takes the lead!
ReplyDeleteGLD up +0.71%
SLV up +0.32%
actually, it was Shalom who said that today could be the day that Gold takes over from Silver.
My largest position is still AGQ and SLv calls and once $50 is tagged it will convert to Gold equivalents, but I still want to have some exposure to SLW and SIL.
ReplyDeletePoly and KAL,
ReplyDeleteIf you want to do June instead of July, that's probably good too.
Yes, you can get DITM calls in GLD with premium of less than .30. You DO have to go very DITM. However, as I said, you can still get massive leverage with those strike prices.
Example: July 130 call has a bid of 2115/ask of 2140, extrinsic (premium) of .37.
So for the price of 100 GLD shares, you can buy 6 calls. That's 5 to 1 leverage, or 3 times the leverage you're getting on DGP.
June's are even better: 130 call has a premium of only 16 cents! price 2100. again 6 times as many shares with the calls than buying the shares outright.
KAL and Poly,
ReplyDeleteMy bad, I do think June is probably a better expir. month than July. We don't need that extra month based on when we expect this C wave to top.
DG-
ReplyDeleteI'm doing GLD calls, DGP and NUGT as my core strategy.
The more I look at the HUI, the more I think it is poised for a huge run. I'd like to have 2x HUI lined up now.
Thanks for the update on miners, Alex. I have hung in there but was losing patience, and it was pissing me off to see some of my profit from GLD calls being negated by some of the miners being DOWN on the day! So I appreciate your analysis as always!
ReplyDeleteI have just added the spot metals to my charting software feed. This will include many, many years of history in both silver and gold, as well as other metals.
ReplyDeleteSo far I have designed my screens for silver from measurements estimated from Stockcharts.
Now I will be able to refine those measurements.
Just catching up here, but Poly, we did print clear lows. A 10% correction is clear. Also, according to Gary in a parabolic move all we look for is a $25-$35 correction in gold to confirm it, which is what we got.
ReplyDeleteAlso, DG, I couldn't agree more with your GLD take. About a month ago I made a massive shift away from miners and into SLV and GLD calls and it has paid off handsomely.
6 to 1 leverage on GLD with DITM calls, not 5 to 1.
ReplyDeleteWell, the reason people buy miners over metal is that miners typically move faster than the underlying metal as they are more volatile.
ReplyDeleteThere is no guarantee, of course, but to assume that just because silver beat silver miners last round that it will always be this way is a mistake.
Sure this relationship could continue, but beware of recency bias.
Dear Mr. Silver,
ReplyDeleteThis letter is to inform you that there is a gold party today and it would be greatly appreciated if you could attend.
Ok to be fashionably late.
Best Regards,
Middle Class American
nice, Wes.
ReplyDeleteWhere are you getting the data? And what charting software are you using?
Pima, you rock!
ReplyDeleteI had already thought through the June/July thing and figured June was better based on the dollar cycle. Thanks for confirming. I think I was looking at June 132 and June 134, so looks like I understood you right. Thanks again for taking the time to explain!
I don't have a huge taxable account, most of my investments are in my IRA's. Will start converting to Roth this year, but with all the money Gary is making us, I may never finish! Haha.
The smaller taxable account keeps me honest with the money (no margin/calls/silly moves in the retirement funds keeps the wifey more relaxed!). So, I will use those good delta, low premium calls for the taxable account to maximize leverage, and stick with DGP, SLW, etc. in the IRA's.
who was the poster who said a few weeks back gold was going to 1550 on this move before any pullback. Slumdog?
ReplyDeletejust watching from the sidelines and seeing the positions rise.
ReplyDeletewow europhoric buying for the metals..
now the miners, oh man no love
but you know what that means. it's time to BUY!
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIsn't it risky to put more than half of your portfolio in to options? I realize that you will buy the same $ amount as you would buy calls, but don't you still get more risk with the options?
I've given miners some thought and my current plans are to pass on them. I can get all the leverage I'll ever want from basic options.
ReplyDeleteAs for mining fundamentals, if your cost of producing gold is $500, you get great leverage when gold goes from $600 to $700. But not much happens when it goes from $1600 to $1700. Seems to me the returns are always diminishing.
Basic options are much simpler to acquire skill in than are picking miners, IMHO.
"who was the poster who said a few weeks back gold was going to 1550 on this move before any pullback. Slumdog? "
ReplyDeleteI bilieve TG called a $50 move towards the end of the week. The guy rocks!
You're welcome, KAL.
ReplyDeleteThe caveat I should have also posted is that leverage goes both ways. I myself am not comfortable with massive leverage, so I use the calls to give me the exposure I want and still leave cash available in my account. I believe Wes has said that he does this also.
One way to figure your exposure is take your account balance and figure out how many shares of GLD you could buy. That's 100 percent with no leverage. Double that number to get how many equivalent shares you would be controlling if you were in a double long etf like DGP.
For me that double long exposure is enough leverage and I personally don't want to go deeper than that.
So if you want the equivalent exposure of being fully invested in your account with DGP, then just buy the correct number of DITM GLD calls to give you the control of that many shares. When you do this, you'll have cash available in your account which is always a nice thing.
You can certainly make more if you go with higher leverage, but you also amp up the risk.
Good luck. I hope you (and all of us!) make a ton of money here!
SB: That's fair, but for myself I really hate being right on a prediction and losing out because I chose the wrong vehicle. I do expect the miners to catch up, but by far the bulk of my account is in AGQ and now DGP (I have a little GDX), but I am happy to take the sure bet and eschew the maybe-a-little-better one.
ReplyDeleteGary, on this trade trigger, do you guys use the SLV "Ask", "Bid" or the "Last" price as the trigger?
ReplyDeleteDoes it even matter which one to use in this case?
I know there are a lot of EW haters out there, so don't read this... :-)
ReplyDeleteThe move up from the Tuesday morning low on the 30 min chart has the look of a classic 5 wave up EW pattern. We're in the 5th wave now and it looks like 5 of 5 is playing out.
EW would say after 5 up, we'll get a pullback to somewhere around 38 to 50 percent of the move up. That would be into the 1520 - 1525 range, which is also in the range of the 4th of the 3rd, another common retracement area.
That would give us another buying opp.
The caveat (and those who hate EW already know this!), is that that possibility is just that--it's only one of several possibilities. The current wave up could extend before pulling back--that's another possibility.
Or, the move down into the 1520-1525 area could happen, but that move down might not stop there.
However, if we do get that kind of pullback, I plan to pick up a few more GLD calls there.
Idk if anyone mentioned this yet but CME hiked margins for silver AGAIN this week. This is probably keeping silver back today.
ReplyDeleteIf you haven't already seen this on IBD:
ReplyDelete"The reason you don't see miners going up as fast or equal is due to their rising input costs, issues with geopolitical unrest globally and the talk of many nations looking to tax the mining operations in their countries as well as management and environmental setbacks," says Terry Sacka, chief strategist at Cornerstone Asset Metals. Input costs include fuel for diesel-guzzling hauling trucks, electricity, ammonium nitrate used in explosives, machinery and workers.
http://bit.ly/lT33dn
MG,
ReplyDeleteI always use last, but it probably doesn't make a whole lot of difference on something that has tight bid/ask spreads (1 cent!) like SLV does.
Thanks Pima. I sorta had come to the conclusion after reading your posts, as well as some other more experienced people on the board, that having some cash on hand is nice.
ReplyDeleteI figured to do just what you said... Figure out how much DGP I would have held, say x shares, and then use the GLD calls to get an equivalent amount of leverage to match it. Maybe go 3 x GLD (1.5 x DGP), or something like that. But then, I'd also have cash to hold on hand. Great info... Thanks again.
Interesting quick stat from Jason at sentimenntrader.com:
ReplyDeleteThis is 4th time in 30 yrs that US Dollar fell 8 days to 52wk low. Others = quick rally, then lower low (10/25/04,4/19/07,3/6/08).
Thanks primaCanyon
ReplyDeleteThat was my thought as well, just wanted to double check how you guys use the trigger in this case
DG,
ReplyDeleteso can we consider today the quick rally?
pima,
ReplyDelete"the upper channel line on gold has been limiting its advance since Wednesday's after hours trading"
How have you drawn that channel? The way I have drawn that upper trend line is connecting highs on Apr 18, 25 and 27. Gold, today, has already broken out, tested it back and then off higher.
Just love this gold action, sure getting a sense that sentiment is slowly switching over.
ReplyDeleteIf we're in a runaway and just a matter of 3-6 weeks from a C-wave top, then we could expect this action to the top without another real daily cycle low. Fear of losing such a trade has me getting in on some more OTM's to capture a blow-off, without too much capital.
Purchased 200 x MAY GLD $160 @ $0.28
Doubling up from few days ago, another 100 x JUNE GLD $160 $1.08 (now hold 200)
I have a bit of a dilemma here. Do we have any currency experts or Canadians that can answer this question. If I'm planning on switching out my silver for gold. I'll mainly want to put it in DGP and I know I can use HBU.TO but it's volume is anemic and if I wanted to get out fast I don't think that's going to happen. So that would mean I would have to do a large currency exchange from CAD to USD and I'd hate to lose out if I convert back to CAD when we get out for D WAVE. Right now we're sitting at around 0.95, any guess how low it can get? I'd just hate it if we went to 1650 gold that'll be 12% gain in DGP and then I'd lose another 5% on currency exchange if we go to 0.90 USD/CAD. I know I can just keep some of it in USD but I will need to exchange a lot of it back to CAD.
ReplyDeleteGold going up, Silver going down. Looks like a lot of traders are rotating from Silver to Gold under 49.
ReplyDelete86d: Not sure what you are referring to. I rarely make day-to-day calls and do not remember saying there would be a quick rally in gold. Sounds more like a TZ thing...?
ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteI'd say you convert now, ride the C-wave. USD will be at the lowest point at the end of the C-wave.
However, D-wave will take USD much higher - much beyond what it is right now. You convert back to CAD at the end of the D-wave for a nice bonus.
You get to play it both ways.
YLD...crimex delivery day for Silver...got to keep the price low, its a recurring pattern. No worries. its all good. If Gold stays here, silver will get over 50 next week.
ReplyDeleteGold catching serious bids.
ReplyDeleteYesLetsDiscuss,
ReplyDeleteThanks I think I'm going to go that route too. I can probably hold out until the d wave is over before I need to exchange a lot of the USD back to CAD.
Have a question for those who use options frequently. I hold a large amount of DITM GLD July options, how long do you hold them, to the top?... or do you take profits along the way and buy into GLD or DGP to lower the risk level as we get further up. I would sure hate to see these profits gone on a drop or cycle down. Just getting nervous already, so need to know what is best plan to proceed as we go.
ReplyDeletePoly,
ReplyDeleteBingo. Good job. Many props.
Why isnt the Miners following this move in gold, come on !! this is frustrating, the miners was alot higer when gold was at 1400...
ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteThat's just the way it is my fellow Canuck, however, the US$ will go back up at the D as was pointed out.
Even if you lose 5% in the conversion, you should be making up more than enough for it on the C ride.
I will leave all the converted funds into my US margin account and transfer back only when the exchange is favorable or I have to pay CRA, whichever comes first.
Poly,
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting your options buys.
I've been following your lead and kicking butt!
You Da Man!!
I have 70% silver and 30% gold in my portfolio..Today gold is showing some strenght.
ReplyDeleteWill it be like this the last week of the C-wave or will silver soon gain strength?
Im guessing that gold will move stronger for now but I think that silver soon will move hard and fast. Just a matter of time! I think that 50 in silver will be crushed easy!
I take a look at Futia's projections every morning. He's had 1560 as a target for gold for a while. Just hit 1558.
ReplyDeletestrange to see gold move like this and silver doing nothing.
ReplyDeleteMoneyman,
ReplyDeleteIt's about time that gold caught up to silver's percentage gains!
Last weeks of course
ReplyDeleteYesLets,
ReplyDeleteYeah, gold has seriously blasted thru both upper channel lines of both channels I had drawn (one steeper than the other, the less steep one going back further in time)
Poly mentioned that if we do indeed go parabolic (seems like we have), then we would expect gold to blow thru its upper channel line.
Mr Miyagi
ReplyDeleteYes it is but if this will continue theres no reason to be in silver anymore..
But my main scenario is still that silver will soon move hard upwards..
But I think it was 2006 when silver didnt move that much after a big correction. Wonder if this will happen again..
atease,
ReplyDeleteI'd say it would depend on the amount of leverage you're carrying. Lots of leverage, you might scale out little by little. I believe Poly has said that he does that.
But if you're at a leverage that's comfortable, you could just hold till we have signs of a top. I believe Gary is looking for something north of 1600.
But ofc if you switch to gold now and sell your silver..Boom silver will move fast and hit 51-52! :-)
ReplyDeleteAlways like that..When you try to get greedy it slaps you in the face.
Poly,
ReplyDeleteYou know how to nail this market!
I have more in gold than silver now, and while it looks especially good today I believe silver will have one more frantic rally to suck in the last buyers. Just doesn't feel like we have done enough yet. And gold has quite a bit more to run IMO. It should easily surpass $1650. We need some big headlines for me to even consider the rally close to over. We've still got a month before the dollar bottoms!
ReplyDeleteyowzaaa!!!!
ReplyDeleteThe gold/silver leapfrog game is fine, but these miners better get their act cleaned up. They are seriously messing with my plan to rule the world.
ReplyDeleteAt some point the buying will become indiscriminate. Probably after the $ breaks to all-time lows.
ReplyDeleteEverything will move without rhyme or reason.
So worrying about underperformance is a waste of time.
Get long. That's all you need to know.
Tudor:
ReplyDeleteThe miners are also making you look older. :)
NUGT up over 3%.
ReplyDeleteTudor: I've been meaning to ask. What theme is your avatar selection? Who are these guys?
ReplyDeleteDG
ReplyDeleteYes nice move in gold but I also think that silver have one more gear left..
Also think the strong move in gold will drag silver towards 50 and beyond. :-)
Silver:
ReplyDelete50 has been resistance all week. We essentially have a double top, last Sunday night and yesterday during normal trading hours. The next time it bumps up near 50, it should break right thru it.
Lots of folks are looking at 50 as a possible top. I'm thinking once it hits 50, it could keep on going, maybe just explode higher and end up at 60 in a week or two.
Ryan ... re Canadians and the exxhange. This is the way I play it ... I have a CDN account, full of cash .. i have a USD margin account. I purchase my USD stocks on margin ... so, yes, there are the carrying costs, but you dont have to worry about losing on the exchange rates.
ReplyDeleteNoted a few comments about miners and input costs ... OIL, etc ... can someone smarter than me then elborate on how those inputs impact a stock like SLW.
But just a guess on my part. I am very happy with my GLD calls. :-)
ReplyDeletePima, thanks! Even I know I'm just streaking. Plus the OTM's can turn on a dime, worthless until cashed, but off to a good start.
ReplyDeletegreat advice, David!
ReplyDeletehey guys,
ReplyDeletei was just wondering if you guys can tell me how I can calculate in percentage terms, the current price relative to the 200 or 50 dma?
Gary mentions that for ex. silver or gold stretches 100 or 150% from the 200 dma moving average before a top, how does he calculate that?
thanks
Pima
ReplyDeleteI agree with you.
When it pass 50 I think it can move very fast to 53-55..Probably to 60..
How long will you keep you silver?
Trader H,
ReplyDeleteOn any chart plug in the DMA you want, look at the price and the price that the DMA touches.
Then, now price divided by DMA price.
Example, price 48.55$, DMA price 33.22$. 48.55/33.22=1.4614 which is 46.14% over the DMA.
He he. My beard is quite impressive, is it not? Banana Ben has nothing on me, either facially or intellectually.
ReplyDeleteMy previous avatar was the great libertarian anarchist Murray Rothbard, one of the founders of the Libertarian Party, the Cato Institute, and the Mises Institute, and maybe the greatest economist of the 20th century. (Although I'd not like to have to choose between Rothbard and Mises.)
This fine fellow is 19th century anarchist Lysander Spooner. Everything you need to now about his views is summed up in this short passage:
"But this theory of our government is wholly different from the practical fact. The fact is that the government, like a highwayman, says to a man: 'Your money, or your life.' And many, if not most, taxes are paid under the compulsion of that threat. The government does not, indeed, waylay a man in a lonely place, spring upon him from the roadside, and, holding a pistol to his head, proceed to rifle his pockets. But the robbery is none the less a robbery on that account; and it is far more dastardly and shameful. The highwayman takes solely upon himself the responsibility, danger, and crime of his own act. He does not pretend that he has any rightful claim to your money, or that he intends to use it for your own benefit. He does not pretend to be anything but a robber. He has not acquired impudence enough to profess to be merely a 'protector,' and that he takes men's money against their will, merely to enable him to 'protect' those infatuated travellers, who feel perfectly able to protect themselves, or do not appreciate his peculiar system of protection. He is too sensible a man to make such professions as these. Furthermore, having taken your money, he leaves you, as you wish him to do. He does not persist in following you on the road, against your will; assuming to be your rightful 'sovereign,' on account of the 'protection' he affords you. He does not keep 'protecting' you, by commanding you to bow down and serve him; by requiring you to do this, and forbidding you to do that; by robbing you of more money as often as he finds it for his interest or pleasure to do so; and by branding you as a rebel, a traitor, and an enemy to your country, and shooting you down without mercy, if you dispute his authority, or resist his demands. He is too much of a gentleman to be guilty of such impostures, and insults, and villanies as these. In short, he does not, in addition to robbing you, attempt to make you either his dupe or his slave."
If you like that, here's a page full of good stuff from Lysander: http://tinyurl.com/27g4nko
Hey Folks
ReplyDeleteGetting my first chance to check in this morning..on vacation in AZ with the in laws.
I shifted for silber to gold last week on the overnight spike in Silver to 49.50. I got out in the premarket.
Sold SLV at 47.20. Anyway, my experience has been a slow, but staedy uptick in DGP. I also hold GDXJ in mt accounts and GDX for my parents. These have been less steady, but generally up. When last I looked this morning gold was a bit stronger than silver. A one day sample is not significant, but it is the first time in recent memory that this has happened.
Anyway, I have let go of AGQ expectations of 10 percent moves daily, and am content to ride DGP while this final phase unfolds. I expect that DGP will offer 3 to 5 percent moves with increasing frequency over the next few weeks. That's sweet in my book.
DG, EUO will be aparty boat when the D-wave leaves the dock.
Back to the in laws and desert sun.
Sorry bout typos in advance. On my bb.
f
thanks mrmiyagi!!
ReplyDeleteTrader H - to calculate how far above a moving average the price is, follow this formula: take current quote, divide it by the moving average price, subtract by 1, and multiply that by 100. As an example, say the current price is 150, and 10-day is 100. 150/100=1.5. Subtract 1, then multiply 0.5 times 100, and you get 50%. 150 is 50% above the moving average.
ReplyDeleteNatanarchist,
ReplyDeleteThanks for that reminder.