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Wednesday, April 6, 2011

INTERVIEW

Interview with Tekoa Da Silva of the Contrary investors cafe.

483 comments:

  1. I'm wondering what the reaction in the dollar will be to a 25 basis point hike. I think that is already priced in.

    What may not be priced in is a very hawkish statement following the rate hike or a 50 basis point rate hike (unlikely but possible especially with the German numbers this week).

    Will this lead to a dollar decline and s top in the current cycle or will it cause a correction perhaps early and have a shortened daily cycle with the next one being the long daily cycle that includes a parabolic move.

    What do other people think on these points and on what the ECB will do in the morning?

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  2. the link points to gmail, not the interview.

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  3. W,RYAN, and AT EASE

    I replied to you 3 on the last post,in case you missed it.

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  4. Another great interview and game plan for this bull market. Looking forward to witnessing this play out.

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  5. Fergie,
    You're up late tonight or are you still in Europe and it's really early?

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  6. I told you I was back in the States. Jet lagged. . .YES!!!

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  7. I guess that's the price you pay for running all over the world :)

    Where's the next adventure going to be? Well other than Zermatt in June.

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  8. TZ, I found you arguments interesting, but also find some faults.

    1. Your comparison of GDX:GLD. Few if any here invest in large cap miners. It has been well publicized of the hedge funds going long gold and shorting lg cap miners. Obviously you need to be using GDXJ for your comparison which shows a completely different picture.

    2. You spoke of Sept being the peak in SLW:SLV, but it is very clearly in Dec. So it has been just for this cycle to date. Quite frankly SLW is turning or has already turned into a lg cap also. You are like a statistician here using what will make your point.

    3. Most folks here following Gary are already 65% 2x SLV.

    4. Your implication about options is probably mostly correct, but anybody buying at the intermediate bottoms as I did (Jay, Poly, and a few others) is currently up hundreds of percent now and may well outperform your 7x with little risk.

    5. Few here will do futures for several reasons. Risk is most obvious. Account size is second. From reading you and about your tight stop, I reason your account isn't large because these positions cause you long periods of sleep deprivation until you can breathe. Most folks do not care to live like that even for money. A well financed trader would place a trade with confidence, and a workable stop, and not live like that.

    5. You said "Why not wait until stocks are CLEARLY outperforming metal on a ongoing and continuous basis? So far that is not the case and single days or a few weeks don't qualify."

    Since the 08 bottom, your chart shows clear evidence that the trend line (SLW:SLV) did not break until January. You act like this has been going on forever. 12 weeks to be exact.

    I don't mind you stating your case, but wouldn't it have saved a lot of typing and BS to have brought that 3 year chart up and said hey folks, we have a trend line break here. Clear and continual evidence indeed.

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  9. Actually there's a German Gold Conference going on in Munich on April 29th, which I may attend depending on this final wave. I'll be sticking around to watch the fireworks.

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  10. Alex,

    Thanks for the reassurance with SLW. I trade it on the Canadian side slw.to, my disappoint has been amplified since the CAD/USD has been so strong. Given the exchange, slw.to hasn't even broken the 52 week high yet.

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  11. Ryan,

    I too have a decent portion of my funds in SLW.TO - I believe that we can sleep well at night and be happy with its performance.

    I bought in at 31.36, very close the the intermediate low and am up 40% in 9 weeks. Sure, others are up much more than that, but they are much more sophisticated than I am and have taken on much more risk.

    Does anyone even remember Jan. 29th and the week following? We were all unsure if it was a fake-out or the real thing - a lot of people here were nervous. If things went south I would have lost quite a bit less - Risk/reward.

    I am a schmuck who has a 40% return on his investment in 9 weeks. SLW ain't that bad, Ryan

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  12. Rob L,

    I wish I had that great of an entry. Unfortunately for me, it took me awhile to fully buy into Gary's analysis so I've been buying all the way up. I even added to my slw.to last week. But you're right even with my late entries, it's not too shaby. However, a couple of big out performance days vs the metal would have me grinning like the joker.

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  13. Ryan,

    Just wait until we are at the C-wave top before getting too discouraged. It's just a guess, but I am expecting SLW to be at $60. Again, just a guess but judge its performance at the C-wave top.

    When the A-wave begins, you could invest in HZU.to (it is the Canadian equivalent to AGQ). I own a few shares in that too and will probably have most of my $$$ in that instead of SLW when that A-wave is upon us.

    I'm a newbie here too. Live and learn.

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  14. Rob L,

    Thanks for the info I appreciate it. I'm currently over weighted in HZU/AGQ and the rest is in SLW.TO and some in SIL. So far HZU has definitely out performed but that's expected since it's a 2X leveraged fund. I know my risk tolerance has been tried a couple of times when we had those -10% days. I'm fully loaded now so nothing to do except just sit on my hands.

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  15. 1.25% which is what the market expected.

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  16. at first sight it seems to be enough yo convince the market though

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  17. BRIAN,

    A fair number of points, comments, and rebuttals to my assertions.

    I would have counter observations and further commentary on much of what you have said, but I'm pretty confident the overall concept is out there and I have given my supporting data as I see it.

    Many of our discussions revolve around how people believe charts should be read. What time frames to use data? How far back in history is relevant? Is use of *any* history relevant (some say no)?

    I will let darwin take over from here for better or worse for all involved. There is only one reality (vs multiple opinions) and to the extent that any of us correctly interpret and resolve the issue I have raised - that person will (over) profit handsomely.

    Perhaps it won't be me and my arguments are wrong.

    It wouldn't be the first time.

    I will continue to monitor and adapt as I suggest everybody else do as well. I'm pretty sure we will all do well. I'm only trying to tweak that.

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  18. Another great interview, Gary.

    Looking forward to watching the next 4-5 weeks unfold.

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  19. I will mention an expectation from earlier in the week again.

    I'm not sure how today will work out for metals - likely flat or up, but who knows.

    However for friday I expect them to close strongly at the highs (very possibly higher than we already have).

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  20. Contrarily, the guys in charge would like to drive us back down below the breakout in gold and try to paint a weekly 'reversal spike' in gold (and hurt silver).

    That will be their game plan. Let's see who wins.

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  21. Thanks Alex, I answered you on other link also. Hmmm, it appears everytime there is a new link (post) from Gary, we have to check the box on that new post to follow emails on gmail account. (Hence folks using TEST). :)

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  22. If anyone out there is holding may calls let me know when you guys are going to roll the over.

    TIA

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  23. hi alex

    my alex pack since purchase(I stress only pin money so only playing here)

    exk + 60%
    axu + 0.5%
    auy -0.8%
    pzg - 1%
    goro -3.5

    what's your update on these babies
    goog luck everyone lol

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  24. BRIAN

    I also found a huge flaw in your discussion. You numbered your arguments 1,2,3,4,5,5

    :)

    Actually, you did ,but I'm just kidding-you did your homework and due diligence on that one...nice work.

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  25. ALEX
    Yeah, got your response. Ryan is pointing out the ultimate methods, especially for a corporate solution. However, I know with my travels attempting to run a VPN through my home computer would be problimatic/frustrating. The third party VPN is way less hassel and does all I'm really needing. Haven't been to China lately, could be that they are blocking commercial VPN's by now..??..
    Anyway personal protection serves not only you, but those you contact. (where have you heard that before).
    Side note: I've noticed way more spam on one of my email address since that online company got hacked and addresses for millions have been outed from many online retailers. One of them must have been Lowes or Home Depot...never seen so many offers to remodel...

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  26. Sold my GDXJ may calls this morning to free up some cash. Would like to roll it into SIL and AGQ if I can get a pullback at the end of this daily cycle. Am I just being greedy?

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  27. Haggerty,
    You would want to roll them when you think this daily cycle has topped.

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  28. OK BOYS and Girls,

    This may be the GPL lift off I've been looking for. I sold half my position early march, May buy today, will post if I do :)

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  29. It's starting to appear that the top pickers got it wrong again yesterday.

    It's so much simpler if one just follows the plan.

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  30. W

    I havent rec'd the spam, but I got 5 companies telling me their email system got hacked and not to open spam.

    FATBOY!

    1)I like the weightgain in the picture :)

    2) I dont think I ever said I like AUY. I bought that yrs ago and made money, but it hasnt had a very decent set-up lately.ACTUALLY , I just checked it...looks like it wants to break out SOON. Good volume as it approaches the prior high! Looks good

    3) I love EXK,SVM,AXU,AG...I am looking at buying GPL when/if it starts moving again ( I would have to sell something to get it)

    4) I think you're gonna gain more weight...better buy new cloths

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  31. Dear All,

    I have 10 SLV calls for April, strike 38, bought at 0.52. I do not intend to buy the shares. Is it the right time to sell them? TIA

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  32. Very true Gary... Larry is one of them. He's admitting it. :-)

    http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/critical-developments-in-the-markets-11716

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  33. CMT, No, I go all in at the next cycle low. We then have to wait 3 more years for this.

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  34. TZ, The main thing I found fascinating about your work was the 3 year SLW:SLV chart. You should re-post that 1 chart and everybody should have it near and dear.

    I think SLW may change character when it breaks above 46, BUT if it just goes up and kisses the bottom of that ratio trend line and falls away, I will use that as one tool concerning an exit of that position.

    Your commentary is always appreciated BTW.

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  35. Alex,

    What are you seeing in GPL that you like?

    I'm looking at the daily going back 3 months and not seeing anything exciting.

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  36. I posted about XG going on the AMEX awhile back from the Pink/Canada only. It is now rising on heavy volume. People seem to like these stocks that come over to the US.

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  37. Gary,

    Great interview.

    At the upcoming cycle low do you expect price to drop below current? That is, should one wait for a correction or just add now?

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  38. cheers alex

    I may well shuffle the pieces if you do go for gpl

    glad you like the new me...I'll weigh a ton before the end of this if all I do is work and watch the metals....

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  39. POLY

    I have GPL on the watch list because

    1) GREAT flag pattern on a 1 yr wkly (and everyone hates it now :)

    2) Its still a good company-had a HUGR run up...consolidation.
    On a 5 or 10 day /15 minute chart...I see a downtrend .
    Yesterday I thought the open was 'capitulation sell-off', when everyone throws in the towel and sells (high volume) Everyone on this blog hates this one now too.
    I could almost hear people saying, "If it goes below $4..I'm out!" It did.

    3) It bounced away from the capitulation low and retested it at the close yesterday on lighter volume. That is often the last sellers bailing out on the bounce.

    4) So today I want it to rise off that bottom with good volume (it is so far), and break that down trend line( it hasnt yet).

    Oddly enough, in my whole portfolio...GPL is my biggest % gainer.

    Thats a lot of work to some, micromanaging a stock, but I like it.

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  40. Fortuna is also finally joining the miners party. Could be a triangle breakout soon.

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  41. Brian,

    Great post yesterday evening. Very thorough.

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  42. Thanks Alex, I agree on the company.

    Beating that that March 24th 8.8m volume down day would be a big sign too?

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  43. TZ,

    Appreciate your comments re what's likely to happen today and tomorrow. We do want a nice looking weekly candle, so let's hope for a close tomorrow near the high of the week.

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  44. POLY

    Yes, its not there quite yet, but I do still own it anyways,so if I'm going to add, I would rather make sure that it's ready to move up and miss a little of the initial move,rather than jump in here and see it testing that low yesterday again...or lower.

    Brian

    I never saw XG. Thx,nice chart (a bit light on volume, but so was MVG and that hasnt stopped that one)!

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  45. Haggerty,

    I did a kinda/sorta lottery thing on some GLD May calls at the money. My timing sucked, they were underwater for a while, but now green. These are the only May calls I have.

    I have a limit sell order on half of them when GLD reaches approx 147, a target I believe is possible to be reached as this daily cycle tops.

    I plan to add June or July calls at what I hope will be near the bottom of the upcoming daily cycle low. I'll probably go with deep in the money for those, but maybe try a small lottery again.

    (As I was typing this, I'm starting think maybe I should change the limit order to sell ALL of them during this daily cycle.)

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  46. I will post this one more time from months ago for new people:

    img808.imageshack.us/img808/4606/hui2cef.gif

    It is a long term (entire bull mkt) chart of the $hui against CEF (which is simply half gold and half silver).

    Nothing has changed in the last few months. It has actually gotten worse.

    Clearly the $hui (same as GDX) has been a crap investment since 2004.

    Yes, there are wiggles on the chart as it moves lower, but why try to trade them? You will have as much success as trading almost anything else.

    If you want to argue "but I can pick better stocks", fine. Please go ahead and I wish you my best. But that is it's own task with it's own pitfalls.

    When stocks clearly turn around, break that trend and start to perform (as the masses start coming in this market) I will consider stocks over straight metal.

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  47. Alex, XG was a carve out from XRA. I got the shares for free, so I just kept it. Should have been adding.

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  48. TZ,

    The thing is, I think that most of us (Gary included) are expecting the expected outperformance of the miners to happen pretty much immediately (ie, in the next 4-5 weeks) because if Gary is right, that's when this C-wave will hit its blow-off euphoric top.

    Gary thinks that we won't see another C wave for about 3 years.

    That said, the vast majority of my capital is still in AGQ. : )

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  49. Just Bought SHZ @ $5.02

    Sideways consolidation,or possible flag pattern. Last 2 days DOWN had 1 million and 800,000.

    Today already has 1.8 million at 11:11 a.m. Appears buyers are coming back in..looks to be breaking out to continue upward path.

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  50. traderlady, thanks. I'm only about 80% invested and am dying to spend the rest - usually a bad sign. My plan is to sit on the cash until I see a pull back, but greed is making me worry I'll miss it.

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  51. Looks like the coil is starting to break to the downside.

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  52. CATBIRD,

    >The thing is, I think that most of us (Gary included) are expecting the expected outperformance of the miners to happen pretty much immediately (ie, in the next 4-5 weeks) because if Gary is right, that's when this C-wave will hit its blow-off euphoric top.

    You have the words "...I THINK that most...are expecting".

    Can I plainly and directly ask if you have LOOKED at what ACTUALLY happened for all previous C blowoffs?

    I have.

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  53. Fortuna looks like it is going to go ahead and break out.

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  54. CMT, Not hard to be greedy under a government that rewards debtors and
    takes away the interest rates for savers. What is wrong with this. Oh,
    and there is no inflation so Soc sec gives no raises. Enough! :)

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  55. REE stocks are showing strength/bull flags, including MCP, REE, and AVL (very close). Canadian listed QRM and TSM are trailing and may be good plays here, especially if volume picks up on a breakout of the consolidation. Disclaimer: I bought most of these issues in late '09, selling enough along the way to pay for the initial costs.

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  56. TZ, Given your charts, why are you bothering with futures. You could just kick back with your CEF and let the bull do it's work.

    Of course your answer is just like everybody's. We are all seeking alpha. Lots of different ways to do it, but we all seek it.

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  57. Alex, SHZ was double in Jan.WOW! I hope you rode it last time:)

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  58. This is just play money so I will push it out to June or July depending on what these stocks offer.

    On another note,I am trying to convince family members to get in on this before it's too late.(end of Cwave). It's just you feel nervous when your dealing with others money. Also when that money is larger than yours.

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  59. The simple fact is that since the beginning of the bull, miners have massively outperformed the metals, as would be expected.

    In 08 the market crash irrationally sold miners to such levels that it has taken quite a while to recover from it. Even now they are still too cheap.

    Certainly one can outperform by buying an ultrafund like AGQ. But over the long haul you will not outperform with gold and probably not with silver.

    Sometimes at C-wave tops the miners will start to sniff out a top and diverge, sometimes not.

    At the bull market top we will see any and every crap little company with the name gold or silver in it going up 100% a month.

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  60. 7.4 earthquake off the Japanese coast and tsunami alert.

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  61. 7.4 earthquake off the Japanese coast and tsunami alert.

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  62. >TZ, Given your charts, why are you bothering with futures. You could just kick back with your CEF and let the bull do it's work.

    Actually there are very specific answers besides just 'seeking alpha';

    1) I can't leverage CEF beyond 2x.
    2) It has the highest tax rate compared to the advantaged futures.
    3) It has overnight gap risk whereas the futures are 24hrs.
    4) It also has gap risk whenever they buy more bullion (although they dont' dilute the stock).
    5) It would be difficult to place a stop on CEF with a large position. You'd hit and blow out the bid ask since the volume isn't there.
    6) It is a PFIC which has another tax issue.

    So it isn't a simple response about 'alpha'. There are concrete reasons and I know what they are.

    But for the purposes of simply illustrating a point of stocks vs. 'metal' over a decade, it works fine.

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  63. I am considering selling everything in the next 2-9 days, and then converting to a Roth IRA. If the daily cycle low usually dips to the 10 day moving average, do you think I should wait a few days for a daily cycle low to buy my shares back?

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  64. Gary

    Any concern over government shutdown?

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  65. MarkMarin

    Riding FREE shares, cant beat that alone, but riding these little rocket ships...Priceless :)

    and I was watching REE too, great volume again

    Traderlady

    I got in a tad late & jumped out a little early last time (cup and Handle formed Oct to Dec, got in on the breakout near $5+).
    It had a huge volume spike and I bailed out at the top area a bit early. I think the $9 area ( Only 2 days later!..I was afraid ..lol)and it went back up to almost $11. Still was very happy though. This one moves fast, not for the jittery.

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  66. >The simple fact is that since the beginning of the bull, miners have massively outperformed the metals, as would be expected.

    WOW.
    OK, I'm done with the topic.

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  67. H,
    It's not going to change the gold or dollar cycle if that's what you are asking.

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  68. DMA50/200, Ask your broker if you can just move your shares from one account to another. If it is the same broker, you should have to sell and buy back, just move shares.

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  69. There seems to be good support at 1455 for now. A push to 1470+ tomorrow would be nice.

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  70. I was inspired by Garys performance over the weekend so i went to the gym and tried the clean and jerk. 61kg on my second attempt but now my back has been stiff for the past 2 days.

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  71. Thanks, at ease. I can just wait until we sell in advance of the d-wave to have them withhold the taxes.

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  72. Gary said

    "...At the bull market top we will see any and every crap little company with the name gold or silver in it going up 100% a month."

    So true...I remember a company (pennystock) that had 'Gold' in its name , but was NOT a miner or explorer...and it took off with the c-wave top and crashed after. No joke. It was Goldstone or Goldenstone , or something.

    reminded me of the dot.com bust when people threw a dart at an internet dot.com name and bought it.

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  73. DailyMovingAvg50/200
    Don't know the specifics of your planned conversion. If it is, say, a traditional ira to a roth, you may not need to sell to move the assets (especially if both accounts are with the same firm). Also, that sort of xfer can be very quick...like one day, depending on how the trustee works conversions.

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  74. Since the 08 bottom the majors have hugely outperformed gold and matched the return in silver.

    Silver miners have crushed gold and silver both.

    Most juniors have also far surpassed the returns in both gold and silver since that bottom.

    One can always data mine a specific point of time and say see this is how it is. I often hear people quote the under performance of gold from the 1980 top compared to stocks as an example.

    Over the long haul one will make a lot more money in the mining stocks than they will in the metal. Sure there will be times when they will under perform and if you know how to spot those periods of under performance ahead of time then invest in the metals during those periods and switch back when it's the miners turn to shine.

    I dare say no one will be able to do this successfully throughout the bull so why not just allocate capital to both.

    Or if you are comfortable with the added risk you can play the ultra funds. Those will consistently outperform both the metal and miners as long as you exit at tops and don't ride them down into D-waves.

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  75. re post:

    Gary,

    Great interview.

    At the upcoming cycle low do you expect price to drop below current? That is, should one wait for a correction or just add now?

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  76. Gary

    I have the same question as new york. If I get some family to jump in here should they do it ASAP or should I wait for Daily cycle low?

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  77. If I had a crystal ball I could answer that question...unfortunately I don't.

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  78. DailyMovingAvg50/200
    WHOA! Again don't know the specifics of what you are planning, but you may not need to have any tax withheld (and especially not from the retiement assets). I have always paid any tax due from non-retirement assets as either estimated or at regular tax time. I understand if your situation doesn't allow that, but drawing the taxes out of the Roth proceeds is a serious hit. Don't take it without reason.

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  79. Get some now and save some powder to add when we get the daily cycle correction.

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  80. W,better to pay the taxes now than after the account grows to $10 billion?!@#$

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  81. Im thinking of playing miners in the A wave and doing some shopping... did some comparing on the ETFs, and NUGT really doesnt impress when compared to GDX, or GDXJ...its piddly volume is weak too.

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  82. Is there a 3X silver ETF? (AGQ is a 2X)

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  83. Please do not talk about futures and risk.

    If something happens in the market I think we all are fried.

    However, I do not think it will happen and I try to think positive.

    An expected interest rate hike by the ECB and what we see today is just a short break before the euro continues to rise and the dollar down.

    Feels really good actually! :-)

    Nice weather also..

    It is almost time for the first barbecue this year..

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  84. w, ok whoa!!! I will consider converting about 50% of my IRA to Roth during the pause for the d-wave. Need to convert the portion that I will not be redeming in next 5 years only.

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  85. If something happens in the market, stops get hit, contingent orders become active, get filled and we buy back once things settle down, making another boatload of money on the way back up.

    Nothing to worry about as long as you are being smart.

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  86. Three points I'd like to bring up for you, Gary, if you please:

    1) In your interview you were saying that we can expect AGQ to outperform its X2 function to about 130%.
    Then the guy asked you what you would expect the AGQ price to be if silver were to get to $50, and I think you said about $400.

    Is it me or....? that doesn't seem to work out for me.... that's 8X

    2) regarding the inevitable D wave .... What do you think would happen if the Middle East trouble worsened over the next year or so (which I think should be considered, as there would seem a clear possibility of it happening).

    Say it would lead to closure of the Suez Canal, and perhaps even the Islamic Brotherhood in Saudi Arabia eventually stopping the sale of oil to the west??

    (My guess would be that the dollar would get into serious trouble, and the normal D wave consolidation would be shortened, followed by a steep A wave..)

    3) Here in the UK in terms of the British pound, probably like the euro, the top of the C wave might not be so dramatic....and the D wave not s steep as with the USD.

    If the pound falls with the rising dollar, the precious metals will possibly be worth hanging onto....

    Thanks Gary.
    Congrats on the superman thing.
    Please don't get too popular with the investment advice or you'll start having an influence on the markets!!

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  87. Gary

    The coil in silver? I thought that was nullified, if that was what you were speaking of

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  88. jeff, i think gary was talking about stocks (coil).

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  89. Danial

    Good thanks That would make sense

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  90. John -

    AGQ is 2x, but I'm pretty sure it's re-leveraged daily (otherwise AGQ would suffer the 'leverage trap'). The returns should go up exponentially so 8x might be possible at $50/ounce silver.

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  91. DailyMovingAvg50/200
    Happy to read you are refining your plan. I have been doing incrementail conversions for the last three years and have avoided using any retirement assets for taxes. I was going to add that conversion sooner rather than later might be better....especially if you can direct xfer stuff geared to Gary's work...:-)

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  92. wow, oil nearly $110 now...is that inflation, or just expensive oil?

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  93. Moneyman is inviting all to a BBQ at his house!

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  94. John,
    In point 1 your math may be ok, but your thinking is faulty. Gary's comment was to the effect that agq MAY get a little more than a 2x effect during the ladder part of the c-wave. So, IF silver has, say, 50% to go, then agq might see 130%.

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  95. Razvan!

    Is this you?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cw0HRDIQ10I

    Can understand that you have back pain!

    Try tiger balm!

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  96. AGQ to 400$ .. to answer that question ... if SLV gets to 50$ thats about a 30% increase from here ... AGQ is a 2x Ultra Fund, which therefore assumes a 60% increase. 60% of 250$ ( current AGQ price ) is 150$ ... 250+150= ?

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  97. Lol Brian!!

    How many subscribers have Gary?

    Need to know how much meat I should buy?!

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  98. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  99. John said...
    "...250$ ( current AGQ price )"
    Thank Peter - of course! I wasn't seeing it as the ACQ share price... (I think I've got a faulty brain)
    J

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  100. Moneyman, He only has a couple thousand subs, but you have to figure 10% would be no shows. Thanks for stepping up like this.

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  101. If moneyman was smart, he would require that everyone entering his bbq toss him a SAE. That's how you can tell that are from the SMT and not some joe off the street coming for free food.

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  102. Moneyman, Have them all bring a dish to share plus their drink. Imagine pouring over the selections. LOL

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  103. New to this site. Great discussions re investing without all the abusive content on other blogs. I'm trying to ride this C wave and appreciate all of your support. Thanks Gary and fellow bloggers.

    ReplyDelete
  104. OK, rookie sub here. Can someone share a little about conversions from traditional to Roth IRA's since it's come up today? I'm in my 30's, with my traditional balance about 8x what my Roth is. I just started contributing to the Roth in the last couple of years and have thought about conversion but taxes suck. What advice would you give on conversion? Convert a little each year or something like that? Thanks. Totally love reading this blog every day!

    ReplyDelete
  105. Kevin, is there a way to roll it over and extend out your tax burden over a couple of years. Talk to a tax man or your broker can refer you to who would know.

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  106. Just talked to my gold coin guy. He said they are expecting a sell off from hedgefunds making a big dump and driving the price down then buy back.

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  107. Peter,
    Thanks for the math. Now it`s all coming clear! LOL!

    TZ,
    Thanks for your opinions and sharing.

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  108. At ease,

    Sell off tomorrow? Next week? Month?

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  109. Lol!

    You guys are crazy..!

    Razvan will entertain at the BBQ ..He said he would make an attempt on world record in clean and jerk.

    "If moneyman was smart, he would require that everyone entering his bbq toss him a SAE. That's how you can tell that are from the SMT and not some joe off the street coming for free food"

    LOL!!!

    Wonder what kind of dish Gary will bring?!

    Now it's time for CSI. Take care guys! :-)

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  110. ALEX,

    Welcome back to civilization:)

    Still holding my GPL. If it breaks higher, do you think it can stay above 4.2 given the share dilution from the secondary offering?

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  111. I`ve got the feeling that when this crowd starts selling, there are going to be more than a few grins and bbqs going around. Again, thank you Gary and all those that add so much to this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Kevin
    Several points to consider,here are a couple. Do you trust the gov't to maintain the Roth setup? What is your current marginal tax rate. Can you swing the conversion without using ira money and still do your annual contribtion. And that's just some general stuff.
    As a practical matter, I converted one of our son's ira soon after the Roth was created (another never had a traditional ira), however, it was best for me to delay piece-meal conversions until my retirement due to a better marginal tax rate (amt is enough hell all by it's self).
    For your specific situation, get your calculator out or spend a few bucks or a tax advisor to form a plan.

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  113. Simplistic TaxMan question for anyone who might care to chime in:

    As I understand it, in my own unsophisticated/chartless way, regression to the mean during a D-wave = roughly a loss of 33-50% from the peak?

    If this is correct, does it not approach possible break-even (35% bracket) for holding LT, even if one bought near the highs?

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  114. Oh, and did I miss it?
    Did MoneyMan invite us all over for a Q and a swim?

    ReplyDelete
  115. Open question to the board; What do we use as `mean`? 200 dma? Is mean different for all things, as in metals, equities, etc? TIA

    ReplyDelete
  116. I was referring to the 200 dma.

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  117. Kevin-

    I have traditional and Roth IRAs. I converted to a Roth late last year, and was fortunate to be able to pay the taxes out of my other non-IRA savings. I would urge you to do the same if you can swing it.

    I will keep the Roth as is for the foreseeable future, but since I believe (and I know there is a difference of opinion here on this point) the government will exert greater and greater control over IRAs in the future in terms of 'approved' investments, at some point I will likely cash my traditional IRA and move the funds into PMs. When I do that will be a line of scrimmage call, but I will want to take advantage of the tax exemption as long as possible.

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  118. And I was referring to U.S. tax brackets, as if it's the center of the universe. Sorry.

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  119. And I was referring to U.S. tax brackets, as if it's the center of the universe. Sorry.

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  120. I think this speculative orgy needs an ice breaker.

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  121. Open question to the forum:
    Assuming that we have the ultimate conviction that the A,B,C,D gold wave pattern will perform as anticipated, why not short GLD/SLV on the D wave? If we have the confidence to go long on A and C waves, shouldn't we also have the conviction to go short on B and D waves? I understand that we are in a secular PM bull market, but help me to understand why one wouldn't short the PMs on the D wave, when this correction is just a likely to happen as the rest of the A,B,and C waves that preceded it. Thanks!

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  122. Alex, SHZ, It sure looks like you know how to play them. Like a gunslinger. lol

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  123. I am new at this Blake. But I am a decent parrot and I have learned one thing:

    Never short a bull market. Your risk is infinite!

    Now, I am still tempted to buy a 2x leveraged silver or gold short ETF but I am focused on getting to the top of the C wave before worrying about all that.

    One wave at a time. That's my motto.

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  124. Blake,

    If you are a premium member, read the bottom of the April 6 report for the answer.

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  125. Blake, A Gary rule that you do not short a BULL Market!

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  126. Angry Hippie, He didnt' know so I laughed and said, don't they do that all the time? I don't think he knows as much as Gary. No worries, we have stops in place.

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  127. Who were the top callers Gary referred to earlier? Hammy?

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  128. Vonda
    Your thought is loaded with speculation and "what ifs", even if the math seems to work for you. Sometimes the right course is to take the pofit that stares you in the face (when the time comes)...and in thiat case, look to Gary to recycle the proceeds into more profit.
    Besides your gov't needs the revenue, I'm sure you'll get a thankyou note......

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  129. Blake,
    it really does hurt if your wrong!

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  130. The reason for that Blake is the old saying that "surprises come on the upside" in a bull market. Even though we expect it to happen emotionally it can be very hard to trade.

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  131. BTW I traded half of my May EXK calls for june SVM. Just would rather have it further out if it runs late.

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  132. Yes, W, we always get a lovely engraved thank you note.

    I'd get a better return by taking bullion down to the interstate and using it to fill in the potholes.

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  133. BTW my wife has an IRA that we trade and at first I wanted turn that in to a regular account but I want to use that money as leverage. If you don't need it, just keep it in there and cash it in 15 years from now when it is enormous.

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  134. Thanks all for your considered replies. I was considering riding the D wave with a short silver/gold ETF, which would cap my risk exposure (albeit for a max loss of all capital allocated to purchase the security). But it seems the resounding consensus is to let the D wave correct the parabolic C wave gains, and buy back at oversold levels and ride the A wave back up :)

    ReplyDelete
  135. I converted my simple IRA to Roth in Jan 2011. For the tax year 2010 only, you can defer 1/2 of tax payment to 2011 and 1/2 to 2012.

    Best thing I ever did. Already have a huge tax free gain and no tax due for a long while.

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  136. I figured you had your stops in, at ease. You've been on the train longer than I have.

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  137. I may buy a few SLW puts for kicks and see if it works.

    There will be other piece of crap sectors to short at that point instead of going after the pms.

    What are others planing on doing? Going long UUP?

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  138. Angry Hippie, Only been here since February.

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  139. This has been brought up...There are some that think retirement plans are being targeted for government take over.

    http://www.lewrockwell.com/holland/holland12.1.html

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  140. serve me with a nice piece of steak and i will lift anything in sight. I might fail but the weight is sure not going to catch me underneath it.

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  141. Jayhawk,
    was thinking of some position in EUO, all things being equal.

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  142. Jayhawk, I am planning on going long UUP or HDU in Canada. Seems like the easiest way to play it.

    I am not a successful shorter so I will be conservative in order to save cash for the next cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Power and internet problems over.

    No, Alex, it wasn't because I was too heavily leveraged to pay my bills. A bad windstorm in Atlanta caused the problem.

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  144. John,
    If silver goes to $50 that would be a 25% increase from today's level.

    If AGQ were to double that it would rise 50% or about $375 from todays level.

    If AGQ goes to $400 or a little higher that would be about 66-70% gain. Thus slightly outperforming it's intended 2 times goal.

    The dollar will put in it's three year cycle low right on schedule what happens in the oil market is meaningless. We will have another brief deflationary period as the dollar rallies. That will drive commodities down into their three year cycle low regardless of what happens in the middle east.

    It will also drive the D-wave in gold.

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  145. Jeff,
    The coil in the S&P. Silver has been negated.

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  146. This is a good read from the Aden sisters:

    http://www.republictradinggroupinternational.com/2011/04/06/aden-sisters-why-you-should-buy-gold-and-silver-now/

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  147. I've thought about long positions vs short positions and relative risk, and I think the two risk profiles are about equal.

    You can lose all you have either way.

    Thinking you cannot go below zero on the long side is scant comfort in the real world. I doubt that anyone here invested in the PM bull could ride their current position to zero and still be solvent.

    But Gary's point of not shorting bull markets is a good one.

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  148. W, at ease, TJ, and everyone:

    Thanks for the IRA advice. The big question is "Do I trust the government?" I guess that's the elephant in the room for everyone.

    I do have a very low (basically nonexistent) tax rate right now and for the near future. I don't make much, I have 2 kids in diapers and my wife is at home with them for now.

    I'm changing careers, so hopefully making more in a couple years.

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  149. If you must play the D-wave then do it with a few puts so you know what your total risk is. And be prepared for a volatile ride.

    You think it's been hard to hold on to long positions it will be ten times as hard to hold onto short positions during the D-wave.

    All of you thinking your going to short the D-wave and make a killing are in for a rude awakening. I doubt 1 in 10 of you will make any money at all and most will end up losing some of their C-wave profits.

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  150. I've read that some, maybe most, people have abandoned their lottery ticket SLV Arpil 40 call position.

    It was a long shot going in and is no more so now, so I'm probably married to this position for good.

    Being within $2 on silver's price to a payoff with over a week to go is not awful, IMHO.

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  151. Thanks for the caution, Gary.

    By the time the final blow off top of the C wave is complete, the short silver and gold ETFs should be worth almost nothing, right?

    I am having trouble seeing how we would lose money with those. I will stay out based on trust, but I feel like I must be missing something fundamental that I would like to get a handle on so that i can make smart decisions in the future. You know, once your fortune is made, you own your own mountain, or two and are done fooling with the PM markets.

    ReplyDelete
  152. First time commenting here. Been reading this blog a while, especially since January. I notice a serious decline in this blog's content/value and want bring it up to Gary, and also everyone else, for comment and improvement.

    Two months ago, a decent percentage of comments were from knowledgeable, active traders. Their insight was very valuable, especially when Gary joined the conversation. As this final c-wave progresses, I see more and more new people are commenting, fewer of these knowledgeable traders are replying and the sheer volume of comments (time to read) increasing. Some of the reasons I see are:

    1. Low value questions. Some questions are easily answered with 10 minutes serious thinking or a few Google searches. This clogs the blog with unnecessary comments and tires out the good traders who stop responding to the same questions over and over again.

    2. Noise. This is a blog about riding the metals bull, Gary's fundamental views and his model portfolio. However, only about half the comments discuss these topics. (Asking advice if you should sell your options, or a hot junior gold miner, are off-topic. Gary isn't touching them for valid reasons, so they shouldn't be discussed on the blog. There are other blogs that focus on those topics. Want to talk off-topic with someone - exchange emails and go offline like many have done. Otherwise, it's all noise/distraction.)

    3. Egos keep popping up. Some people get defensive when others discuss their strategy/ideas and some people make comments that seem rude or superior. The reply comments start spiraling out of control. (Drop it and deal with the message, not its presentation. Most traders have egos, a personal desire to be "right". You have to believe in yourself to be a good trader, so it comes with the job, but we must tone it down for the blog. If someone is out of line, let's remind them nicely when replying that we need respect for a productive blog.)

    Regardless of whether you concur with the reasons above, or have other reasons, I think we can agree that currently:

    -We are losing the active, knowledgeable traders. I have seen several quality people mention in the last week that they will post less or only periodically review the blog. Huge loss to all of us and the reason we are reading the blog to begin with.

    -We have now lost Gary. Gary can't keep up with the blog anymore. This is a big deal, as we are here because of his insight.

    -The blog will take up more and more time to read/comment. Time is money, and causes knowledgeable people to limit their participation.

    We really need to do something people. I'm on the verge of leaving the blog myself for these reasons. I'm amazed Gary hung in for this long.

    PS- If any of the above offends you, then please know I was talking about everyone else but not you, so don't take it personally. :-)

    PPS-Please don't respond with "just skip comments if you don't want to read them". I try to read everyone's comments to learn and be fair, and separating the good from the noise is just getting too much. Offer a better solution please.

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  153. H,
    The double funds will undergo a reverse split at some point.

    These are not stocks theses are derivatives of gold and silver. If you buy high and sell low you will lose money. And that's exactly what most people will do. They will buy the inverse fund when they become convinced the D-wave has begun.

    That's exactly when we will get a violent counter trend rally. Most will freakout and sell as it will look like the C-wave isn't finished.

    This is how most people are going to lose money trying to play the D-wave.

    The only successful way to ply it is to buy a few puts when you think the top is in and then close your eyes and look at them again in a couple of months.

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  154. WES,

    You're not wrong about those lottery calls, I've been checking in on my hypothetical positions, they still have a shot at paying out.

    My main motivator was seeing that I couldn't get a 10x to 20x Lottery payout on them ($43-$44 Silver) so I abandoned at break even.

    But I'm cheering for you.

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  155. Thanks. My account is 'only' up 35% since reading your blog in late February. I am still a little shaky on why stay out, with an understanding of the potential D into C type head fake you could avoid the emotional sell. But I know when to listen, too.

    I really appreciate your daily breakdowns.

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  156. Hot Rod,

    I'm unaware of a 3x silver ETF, but it's easy to create that position.

    You can buy the SLV May call at the strike price that sells for 1/3 the price of SLV. That would be about $12.85 currently.

    That would give you 3X leverage with about zero time value.

    Of course, you will have to listen to TZ telling you you will go broke buying options. Ask him how his silver commodity position can go up without SLV also going up an equal percentage amount.

    That should produce a creative answer.

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  157. Gary,
    Any thoughts on playing the Vix, possibly through an ETF like VXX. The complancy in the market is mind-boggling and one would think that this can't continue.

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  158. SILVERMAN

    I do, if and when it can regain the 20sma and get more volume in the buying. drab volume today.

    Problem is (in the back of my mind) where we are in the cycle. If we get an overall pullback for a bit...this chart could retest that $3.50 and double bottom, but I dont think so. Its doing O.K. for a semi-down day...oversold on stochastic, MACD still above zero line...hoping the worst is over for this.

    TRADERLADY

    We'll see , huh? I could get 'shot down' tomorrow! :) But so far, SHZ is looking promising in a few ways.

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  159. Thanks, Poly.

    It looks like the gain won't be large, but the amount risked wasn't either.

    I own 100.

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  160. F,
    Don't get sucked into those quagmires.

    Just stay focused on riding the rest of the C-wave.

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  161. blakemancillas

    Gary's motivation to work puts for the d-wave, if you must do something in the PM world, is what I'm practicing now with puts on ZSL. If Bob Love Hawaii would get back in here, we might all learn something. It was motivation for him that got me to start the exploratory position.

    Kevin
    Good to hear you're thinking ahead with a realistic veiw. Sounds like the first priority is being able to fund the ira you've got (Roth or otherwise). thinking about your kids made me grin, well remember when our were that age.... :-)

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  162. The dollar is such poop. Popped nicely this morning and spent the rest of the day throwing all the gains away. 3-yr low, here we come.

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  163. F
    Ditto what Gary said. Even the couple times I've made money with hitting vxx right, it wasn't worth the effort...not to mention the losses exceed the gains....

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  164. Was watching volume on my 1 day , 5 minute real time chart, and someone just came in and scooped up some SHZ fairly big at day end.

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  165. Interesting article about silver production and use in industrial applications.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-technologies-to-drive-silver-demand-higher-2011-03-29

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  166. Alex, I saw the same thing on SHZ. ADX popped from 20 to low 40s in abut 5 minutes - gave it a nice DMI and MACD.

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  167. I hope some others enjoyed Fortuna today!

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  168. Top rising ETF's per Vestorvest,(just guess?) lol: AGQ,DBS,PSLV,SLV,BAL(cotton),SIL,SLVR,UCO,ERX,EDC,GDXJ.

    Someone said they like to explore lists. This one is real clear.

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  169. Brian

    I Did enjoyed watching it...looks great. I am not in it tho :(

    MWAAAH -MWAAAH

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  170. Looks like today's silver action created some headroom before the need to worry about silver being overbought.

    I'd sure like to see overbought silver next week, as I still have lots of April call options on SLV.

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  171. I thought those Rare Earths were supposed to be a fad?

    ReplyDelete
  172. Just read citigroup will do a 1for10 reverse split...never thought of them like one of those 2x inverse funds (zsl), but maybe I should...

    ReplyDelete
  173. WES,

    I hope so too, I'm away on vacation the week of the 18th and was hoping to have my sales made this Friday and all of my cycle bottom buys made by next Friday the 15th.

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  174. I still like the idea of going long the dollar at the d wave. gary has said it would be a "safe" play. i will give garys play the the time 108% consideration though. my money is that he has the better idea than i.

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  175. I hope our miners explode like rare earths do.


    Poly- (Gary and TZ, you can look away)

    I was looking for a lottery type play on SLW or SLV options for the final push higher. May, June expiration. Thoughts?

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  176. Brian,

    Rare Earth elements are not a fad. Although plentiful, they are very difficult to process to purity. Current supplies and expertise is Chinese, with the rest of the world dependent on their supplies. With so many green and military applications using rare earth metals, demand will outstrip supplies for years. I have nearly a 5% portfolio allocation to this group. James Dines came out with buys in 2009 and calls himself the original rare earth bug (along with the original gold, silver, and uranium bug!).

    ReplyDelete
  177. BRIAN

    You are the Brian with AVL?? Or was that another Brian on here. If so...looks real good!REE is still a psycho stock :)

    I sold my AVL in Feb around $8 to use the $$ elswewhere.

    ReplyDelete
  178. I was in some REE calls yesterday but sold them! :(

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  179. Quick off-topic question for the board.

    I've been trading silver futures (SI) as well as AGQ, SIL and SLW in my taxable accounts. In my IRA account, I can't trade futures (it's with Schwab). For example, I want to be able to buy US Dollar Index futures (DX) once the dollar bottoms.

    I'm considering switching the IRA to Interactive Brokers so I can trade futures. Does anyone see a drawback to this? The potential problem I see is that IB might be more likely to go bankrupt or suffer some other calamity than Schwab (or any other bigger institution -- although that may not be true.)

    Any thoughts?

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  180. HNR is getting ready to launch again

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  181. Jayhawk,

    Of course :)

    Just going to have to wait a few more days and wait for the drop into the cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  182. to find the right candidate that is.

    Maybe even AGQ this time around, although they can be expensive.

    ReplyDelete
  183. JD, Hang around and TZ will take you to school on IB. Most people who use them speak highly of them.


    Alex, I had Tasman Metals. Made over a double and dumped to go elsewhere. Big mistake it looks like!

    ReplyDelete
  184. If anyone can offer any help on this I would reallly appreciate it

    I have an old Keogh plan (I actually forgot about it - it was from my first employer after college) with about 10K in it that I want to cash out and possibly move into my silver trading account. I don't fully understand all the tax and penalties involved.

    My understanding is that if I cash out, I get a 20% penalty plus am taxed on the amt. as regular income. I can roll it all into a tradable IRA account for no penalty, but if I want to take it out of that account before I hit retirement age I am penalized 10% plus income tax.

    Do I want to move this into an IRA at a company like TD Ameritrade and just trade my silver stocks within the account? Or do I want to move it to cash and trade like that? It seams like going the IRA route saves me 10%, but I feel like I'm missing something here.

    Any help would be GREATLY appreciated.

    I am currently unemployed (laid off a year ago - no available jobs in my field in my area) if that makes any difference.

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  185. Bump and grind until we near the next cycle top?

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  186. We probably are nearing the daily cycle top.

    on Tues Gary said Gold should have another 3 to 10 days of upside before the move down into the next daily cycle begins.

    ReplyDelete
  187. Jennifer,

    Don't take the distribution, 10% penalty plus income tax.

    Consider a standard IRA rollover to your preferred broker AND then do an IRA to ROTH IRA conversion.

    You will pay no penalty and only income taxes, which will be minimal with your unemployed status.

    Having the funds in a ROTH with minimal expense is the most ideal scenario, IMO.

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  188. Salty, agree. IMO, we could have one or two more strong up days, followed by a big gap up with an intra-day reversal to mark the top.

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  189. ALEX,

    Thanks for the feedback. Hanging in GPL with some stops just below 4to keep some profit. Started reading "24 Essential Lessons..." today. I like it! Did jump ahead to "climax top rules" :) Clearly I have a lot to learn.

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  190. JD,

    You're not allowed to trade futures in an IRA account, at least that's what I was under impression.

    ReplyDelete
  191. Poly:

    Thanks for the input. My biggest concern is that, if worse comes to worse and I can't find a job sooner than later I might actually have to access the money in the account. But, you still think that the Roth IRA is the best solution right? I know I can pay my health insurance and some expenses our of a standard IRA tax free if I am unemployed.

    Ugh. Its all so confusing. Don't end up unemployed people. Its so stressful.

    ReplyDelete
  192. Last cycle count I have 32 days

    Is this correct anyone?

    ReplyDelete

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