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Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Portfolio change

A portfolio change has been posted to the premium site.

1,184 comments:

  1. Gary,

    is the CEO resigning at SLW a stock price issue?

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  2. Sold my SVM this morning. It is back where it was on 3/1 even though silver is much higher. IIt rallies a little when silver zooms and then drops sharply at the first sign of weakness. I had already sold half thinking to sell the rest and then read this:

    SVM on the New York Stock Exchange:
    This company operates an excellent high-grade silver, lead and zinc mine in China, sporting an operating profit margin of a hefty 67%.
    So good is it, and so richly valued is it, that the stock has little further upside in my view. It’s already sporting a multiple of 30 times cash flow, and 35 times earnings. AVOID.

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  3. Is this expected to go lower or do you suggest we add our powder now?

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  4. Thanks for the update Gary. Lighten up a bit on the leverage too.

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  5. Bruce: CEO's resigning is often a stock price issue. Put it this way: The guy may have delayed his retirement had he felt everything was about to get fantastically better. They often get out when something bad is coming, so maybe he is just sensing the D-wave coming soon. I am not saying there is anything wrong with the stock, just that it's not a great sign, let's say.

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  6. The scary thing is /SI hasn't even tagged it's 10 EMA.


    Look at those 4 hour bars on SLW and our other favorite miners. Even the Japan crisis didn't produce that type of massive selling. There's got to be something brewing behind the scenes to warrant this move. (Major margin increase?)

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  7. Sorry all, I am limited here on viewing access to things. So relying on posts to know what is happening. I did see alerts come through my blackberry on price drops, so hopped on to see whats going on. Just checking to see what's happening. Is this a fake out or the cycle drop we were expecting?

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  8. Gold has now just retested the breakout line of 1445, at last. Now it should be free to fly.

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  9. Hi Pima,

    Yes, I would think at least 2 days min, but likely next week to add. Gary is GREAT at calling bottoms, let's see what magic he brings.

    Just need to let the dust settle somewhat and step away. Not going to get greedy seeking a bottom, but also need to be patient before jumping back and let it play out. Silver $38 would be a good time to phase in. I would expect to see some big swings and volatility in gold/silver here next few days.

    Now way this bull will let you trim at an obvious top and add at an obvious bottom. Worse case we don't get all of the bottom and we chase a little.

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  10. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  11. Again let me caution everyone about technicals here. You aren't going to be able to chart your way through these corrections.

    The market knows what you are watching and it will do what's required to take you out of your positions based on breaking technical levels.

    Just follow the cycles and you will do fine.

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  12. 40 EMA on SLW has held during intermediate cycle runs recently.

    40 EMA

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  13. Poly,

    Thanks for your words of wisdom about waiting even though technical targets for gold on the downside were hit.

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  14. Thanks Poly for an answer on what's happening now. It's horrible not having decent internet access for the next 6 weeks, sometimes it takes me an hour just to get on. So have to keep watch close durinng these times to messages as to what is happening so I know whether to get on or not.

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  15. High volume on gold and silver. The drops just now *might* have been all the low we will get.

    I'm contemplating a buy in this zone with a small stop.

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  16. well, not sure if that's a bottom but boy howdy did the buyers step in. i'd have to see /GC close below 1438 on the hourly before i start thinking the jig is up.

    doubled my DGP position on the way down-- too early of course but i've about recovered.

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  17. Gary, posted this on the previous post....

    What are the chances we are seeing a slightly stretched dollar cycle here and instead of seeing the low on day 11 (3/22) of the last cycle we are actually seeing the low on day 26?

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  18. In addition to the ceo news at slw, the annual report is out too. Haven't looked at it yet, but maybe there a dark cloud or two there..??..

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  19. Thanks, Poly and Gary. Sometimes the waiting is the hardest part.

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  20. Dark cloud in their annual report? Not likely. Silver an decades highs and they are locked in at insanely low prices.

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  21. Jay
    The problem is some of those contracts are not "locked" and you can bet that newer ones won't be as advantagous as the old.

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  22. Jay: Might their locked in great prices be expiring? Maybe their contracts at those prices are mostly coming due? It's sure acting like something is amiss. Like SVM it's all the way back to 3/1 prices with SLV much higher...?

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  23. I guess you are assuming the dollar is putting in a low today.

    It looks like two cycles to me. The bounce was pretty strong out of the Mar. 22 bottom.

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  24. Thanks again Poly for posting what was going on. whewww, just on pins and needles worried having limited access. thanks :)

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  25. Jayhawk,

    At some point in time, SLW's existing contracts will expire & will need to be re-negotiated. I would imagine that would raise their cost structure substantially and hit profit margins.

    I am not sure when this would happen, but this could be a major event.

    Will be great if somebody familiar with this can comment.

    I hope it is not in near future since I have a substantial holding in SLW.

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  26. We've lost much of the clarity of previous weeks on this board with this decline. Everyone on the board seems to be looking for a swing bottom, while Gary has been waiting for the swing top to form.

    The lack of strength this morning with a weak dollar was very disappointing and discomforting. I'm really not sure what to expect at this point, so perhaps cash is the best resort for the time being.

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  27. If the market can close here we will get a VTO signal & a bollinger band crash trade.

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  28. Peter: I think things are unfolding just right. We are into the timing band for a low on gold, and gold is obliging by dropping. We probably have two days to a week left in the dip, then a swing low, then resumed rally. Gary feels the dollar has been feeling the dollar has no bottomed quite yet for a bounce, but is not sure. [Someone correct me if I am wrong] If you are confused you probably are not a subscriber and are not reading the nightly reports. YOu should subscribe. If you go off the board and make one error you will have lost several years worth of subscriptions---not worth it.

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  29. If silver breaks 39.80, it can go much lower...Id be adding at 38.50, if we get there.

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  30. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  31. I agree with DG, anyone who seems confused, simply needs to go back and read the nightly reports. Gary makes it very clear.
    If you are not a subscriber, then I recommend it.

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  32. Considering the move in gold, Silver has held up well.
    Nobody knows when or where the bottom will form or if a top is even in place yet. Tops are hard to identify.
    That's the beauty of the game, we just need to play the probabilities and be aware of the alternative outcomes. No need to stress the rest.

    I think Gary's cycle work has demonstrated a very high success rate with identifying cycle lows, that should be the high probability play.

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  33. INCREASES SILVER FUTURES by 50%; Stop near low about 1hr ago.

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  34. I know several of the blogs I read SLW has been the poster child for playing silver. I would guess many, many weak hands are being washed out of this right now. Could there be some news with new CEO, contracts coming due, etc? I'm not sure, but I'm not going to sell into this weakness. The "tell" would be when PMs start to rally again and SLW underperforms.

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  35. Aaron,

    $38.50 is a good number. That April 4th gap up on Monday morning is a good target, IMO.

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  36. If I remember correctly most of SLW contracts are fairly long. I doubt any are expiring already.

    This is just a volatile sector. It tends to head to the lower Bollinger band at cycle lows.

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  37. DG,

    At least let people know your advice was taken from the Sovereign Man regarding SVM.

    I haven't done any selling or buying as yet. Just another day to sit tight until we get to the levels I mentioned on the last thread, IMO.

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  38. Dollar at day's high. My dollar short-term bottom call is still in play. A rallying dollar would drive PM's into the daily cycle low within the next week. We'll see what happens. I sold about half my silver holdings so have a mountain of cash to deploy. I suspect I will go pure AGQ this next leg as some of the "good" names are not acting well at all.

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  39. very close to offload my DUG...for once that something works in 24 hours!!

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  40. No worries fellow longs, a bull market always gives the longs another chance to exit into strength. Selling here is a mistake, even if we do go lower before resuming up movement.

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  41. Sorry SB. I don't know that site so was just passing it on for others to examine think about. If I know the guy and think the author's name adds any value, I say who. Maybe I should do that anyway. Think there is anything to what he says? Is he smart?

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  42. Just got my buy signal on AG ( but maybe temporary...like a bounce)

    So I bought back 1/2 the position I sold at $26

    F.W.I.W.---Just opinion. I Trade and will trade accordingly. Follow Gary,he WILL identify the LOW when the swing forms!!


    My "GUESS" on this move(from past experience) ...the miners lead the way down, They went yesterday on Huge volume, Metals were tame...so stocks will bottom first and lead the way up.

    This is MASSIVE volume down (daily)for some miners (AG, at this rate, could have close to 8 million! SLV, EXK...Very high volume)...

    So I think we have sold off heavy , eventually get a bounce, then retest the lows. Could be a bounce mid day or tomorrow...then a last selloff "get out while the getting good" feeling, but it'll dry up volume wise and retest the bottoms.

    EXK, AG ETC are near 20sma's. A bounce and light volume retest would have me buying.

    JUST MY OPINION, Not a recommendation of any sort.

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  43. time to close computer & wait for 2 days.

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  44. Thanks guys. I am a sub, albeit pretty recently. It's not so much that I'm confused; I just missed the recent top that was put in. The miners really started tanking well before silver futs, and I didn't react to that divergence.

    I also wasn't expecting a top to be put in before the dollar put in a bottom. Now with the dollar sure to have a deadcat bounce of a couple weeks coming, it's difficult for me to see strength in the metals for a while.

    Emotionally, Friday felt like a top, but I held thinking we had a couple days left before a top was put in. Happened pretty abruptly, but that's typically the case.

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  45. I do not have super confidence that this is a low in silver and my buy will hold, but it is a reasonable trade that I'm willing to risk.

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  46. DG,

    I think his advice on moving abroad is somewhat useful, and he's a believer in metals long as a hedge against fiat, but other than that I can't say his investment advice would suit full-timers like us.

    His name is Simon Black and people can sign up for a e-mail newlsetter if they go to his Sovereign Man site. I haven't gone further than to read his updates. :)

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  47. He also hates SLV, and by definition would have to hate AGQ, even if he didn't mention it.

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  48. DG,

    Looks like the dollar is doing what you thought it would. Last hour it's moved up pretty fast.

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  49. SB, the reason why some hate SLV is because of rumors of fraud (lower or lack there of the physical in storage). AGQ however is a play on futures, and thus unrelated to why SLV is disliked.

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  50. Gary, I cannot view the premium site and I am a subscriber. What are the details in the portfolio change?

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  51. Nah TZ..Too early..But you got a stopp so you can try..

    Nice calls from you lately..

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  52. click on the lost password link and reset your password.

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  53. Aaa saw now that you stopped out..sry!

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  54. PC: I get lots of signals and use my judgement as to which are the best ones. For the sake of the board I try to cherry pick, so hopefully my batting average on the posted ones will wind up being pretty good.

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  55. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  56. Silver can go all the way down to 39.40 and still not break the TL drawn off the 3/16 and 4/1 lows.

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  57. I'm not as concerned about further downside from these levels, so much as that when a clobbering like this takes place, it usually takes some time for the bull to resume with conviction.

    Once people get spanked, it takes them awhile to come back to the party. :)

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  58. Hey Gary,

    If I were to buy some SLV options at the daily low, would you recomment May or July?

    Le Fou

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  59. DG

    That was a call on the dollar actually made last Friday, right? sweet call.

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  60. All this worry over Wheaton... why not peruse their website for your contractual answer? They are locked into these contracts for YEARS, not months! This is why it is such a beauty, and why the price shall, Pheonix-like, rise again!

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  61. Le Fou,

    May options are too close. July options are better.

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  62. If SLW was down 4-5% while the other silver miners were green, then yes, I would be hunting for some news that may be driving that action. But every miner is getting murdered...SLW is just one of those today.

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  63. sorry DG to ask for your help again, but do you think that the EUR/USD could see 1.4240 ish soon?
    I was trying a short since yesterday....

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  64. sorry DG to ask for your help again, but do you think that the EUR/USD could see 1.4240 ish soon?
    I was trying a short since yesterday....

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  65. Gary,

    Thx for your comment about SLW touching the lower BB on daily cycle lows - I hadn't realized that before you mentioned it. Looking at its chart shows that is precisely what occurs.

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  66. kmisak
    So you don't think it's a little risky to be using the corporate websit for you warm fuzzy?

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  67. Aaron,

    I'll take your word for it b/c I'm not involved in either so it won't affect me. I know some don't like "paper silver", whether it's futures, SLV, or GLD but you could be right about Sovereign Man. As I said above, I don't really give him much attention.

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  68. Alrighty then, looking at last night, I didn't expect a Demark perfected DAILY BUY setup for the Dollar, but there it is, lower low today in terms of DXY. So, 1-4 day DXY upside reaction, starting tomorrow through Monday. Also, we are in an overlapping sequential Daily Buy that recorded last week - good through the end of next week. And we reached the 74.90 daily exhaustion, so this bounce in DXY should be fairly strong.
    Kevin Depew also stated that Silver on the DAILY recorded a sell setup yesterday, so Tuesday-Friday for that. and that we also completed the minimum requirement for D-Wave 5 up which I pointed out the last few days.
    In terms of S & P, it looks like the range will be a very tight one between 1312.40 downside and 1329.52 upside unless one of those levels becomes qualified, as it flirted with the upside qualification last week. I will keep you guys posted.

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  69. Lost 0.6% net worth on my trade. Will resume same strategy at next lower level (which now seems likely).

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  70. Thanks COOLKEVS

    Its like learning a foreign language at times, but I'm starting to get it .

    keep posting :)

    I'm gone for the day, have a good one everyone!

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  71. sorry for my double texts, I don't know why it is doing that... too much caffeine, I guess

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  72. It would be pretty unusual to have two short dollar cycles in a row.

    I really doubt this will be the cycle low right here.

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  73. Alright I'm off to the rocks.

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  74. coolkevs,

    Can you reiterate the "minimum requirement for D-Wave 5 up" and what is the "5" there? Sorry for the trouble, thank you

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  75. Around what range will the swing low be? Roughly...

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  76. Sophia. This is a risky trade. It is a little bit like picking up nickels in front of a steam roller. I posted it because we all have interest in the dollar because of the PM correlation. I took a small position and may just get out at any moment. Especially since you're broker is sometimes out, and Gary is arguing with me about it, I'd pass on it were I you. Gary and I are about 50-50 when we disagree on a short term movement, so not great odds.

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  77. GDX components are very similar to the HUI's. Large cap gold miners mostly.

    If Gary was not off climbing rocks, he would say "my crystal ball is broken, so it's hard for me to tell you where that swing low will take place"

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  78. So who's going to nibble on some AG here?

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  79. Thanks Jayhawk, just wanted to get a rough idea with support and whatnot.

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  80. Japan nuclear disaster now as serious as Chernobyl accident.

    Japan Nuclear Alert Level Raised>

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  81. Hi, Gary, With QE2 ending in June, and Fed Policy meeting at April27, why you think the C wave will last to June? Could Dollar start to moving up soon, and D wave starts this month?

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  82. My prediction is the 1430 area. :)

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  83. Scary drop on AG, falling knife here...I was looking at the upper 18's or low 19's Eric?

    ALEX said he was adding some today, but his style is different.

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  84. I picked up a few July 20 call options at 3.2. Simply getting my feet wet.

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  85. got it DG ! will exit fast...

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  86. OK (still here, leaving NOW,I promise) Possible LONGTERM AG ( see wkly chart)

    Bought Ag at $20.60...If it bounces 50% from its $6+ drop ,it could bounce to $23 area, ( if on light volume = sell...A-B-C- down would be to then add another $6 drop off of $23...A-B-C-D .That gives you the gap at $17...and on a wkly chart , the best buy ever!!! :)

    My buy today is based on selling at $26 , in here for a bounce ..or more, really have to see how it plays out.

    OUT 4 THE DAY :)

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  87. Just re-read that...hard to understand what I meant...sorry

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  88. Shalom

    Your timing on the last cycle low was impressive. If you add dry powder this time you are going to add to NUGT right as opposed to AGQ? Are you thinking about options this time?

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  89. One more crushing day to the downside tomorrow ought to be enough. :)

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  90. Dollar/euro trade has worked off its excesses without moving. I will be out at day's end unless dollar is up at least modestly by the close.

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  91. So if gold is putting in a bottom now, but the dollar still has a little ways to go, what does that say about the near term prospects for gold? If the dollar puts in it's bottom next week we could see extended weakness in gold.

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  92. Haggerty,

    I won't be using options. I'll see what holds up the best once it looks like we've washed out, and add there.

    It could be any of the usual names, but I want to see the miner indexes get oversold first. My inclination is to focus on NUGT, but that might change.

    I'll post what I'm buying and when.

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  93. DG, it is true that it is pretty impressive how the USD doesn't rally a bit despite all the selloff in stocks and commodities...they are evn buying Treasuries for goodness sake!

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  94. Look at the volume of selling in AG over the last 5 days vs EXK or MVG.

    Looks like massive amounts of selling in AG relative to the previous (3 months) buying volume. Not sure what Alex is seeing, he is a better trader than I, but AG looks sick if you ask me.

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  95. I might even focus on some individual miners now that the froth is gone. I can't imagine managements wanting to raise capital at stock prices 20% below their levels last week.

    We'll see, but I'll post when I do. :)

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  96. Two big down days, if we aren't done for this season I don't think we should get much lower than this...other then sideways consolidation. Reason I say that is I don't think it's realistic to expect silver to correct $6 as Gary suggested to 35/36$ then rise by more than a third to $50 by late may/early June. /jmo

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  97. Two big down days, if we aren't done for this season I don't think we should get much lower than this...other then sideways consolidation. Reason I say that is I don't think it's realistic to expect silver to correct $6 as Gary suggested to 35/36$ then rise by more than a third to $50 by late may/early June. /jmo

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  98. Based on the simple channel drawn off the Jan and Mar lows, SVM could be a buy here. It's touching that lower channel line now. I would expect at least a bounce here. However, if it does break that channel line, next stop could be 12.00, the March low.

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  99. FWIW, I don't see GLD or SLV or any individual miners on the BoW list today. Also do not see GDXJ. I do see GDX, but only 6.8 million.

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  100. "Two big down days"

    Not exactly big, Silver is down just $1.70, good part of it over night! It's up $16 in 60 days and up $8 this cycle alone.

    "I don't think it's realistic to expect silver to correct $6 as Gary suggested to 35/36$ then rise by more than a third to $50 by late may/early June."

    I agree $6 is a bit much, but a 35% final daily cycle rise (previous C-Tops did more!) from $37 gets you $50.

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  101. Well, this is going to be interesting... DX is having trouble getting a rally going, and Gary thinks it's too early for a daily cycle low. So we just might have the dollar continue lower.

    If that happens, what will PM's do? It's late in their daily cycle and we sure had a large volume reversal in PM etf's and miners. Will they keep going down as the dollar continues drifting lower...?

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  102. Pretty strong support for silver at 40$, at least it seems that way...

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  103. nice slam on the market and 1450 is holding on gold..

    2 more weeks at this +-25 dollar range and yahoo $1500

    sell me your metals and your equities today.. what a gift

    level to watch is 75.3 on the US dollar index. this is when i would start to lighten so far so good.

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  104. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  105. I like DG's idea of going all AGQ for this daily cycle of the C-wave

    also TZ provided evidence of silver outperforming miners at the end of the c-wave

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  106. DG,

    Would you be typically buying back in with AGQ in steps or do you find a good spot (once swing low is in) and come in with one big order?

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  107. I will be all in AGQ when the time comes as well! ( when I mean all, I mean my meager account...:-))

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  108. DG,
    I remember the last time you got a buy signal in the USD...gold and the miners got trashed right after you got that signal

    Thank you for posting the buy signal on the USD again...the miners & gold getting hit hard again

    This time, I was one step ahead of the game...thanks to you

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  109. I'm not smart (or lucky) enough to time the short moves in the daily cycle so I'm staying 100% invested. But I have been rebalancing my portfolio for the stretch run. I have been selling shares of my silver miners and SLW today and the past couple of days and immediately buying more AGQ. I'm now 65% in AGQ (I know Gary was there all along, but it took me awhile to come around to his way of thinking).

    AGQ seems to offer most of the upside potential of the silver miners without the big downside corrections like we have seen today. Glad I got out of most of my AG at $24.70.

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  110. ...at ease, if you are there, would you send me an email? I'm at smartbullion@gmail.com

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  111. Sold my April 160 OIH puts and bought May calls. May be early though.

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  112. Re: VTO and bollinger band crash trades.

    I found a post by Gary from 2007 regarding this, but am having trouble figuring out what it means. I think it is a bullish signal. Do you buy immediately once the pattern is noted or is there a waiting period where additional decreases in stock price can be expected? I exited most positions yesterday morning and am interested in developing a calculated reentry strategy.

    Any help is appreciated.

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  113. Added a bit of SLW and SLV calls today, if it goes down further in the next couple of days before the Big-C, I'll top off and wait.

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  114. Looking hard at June 45 SLW Calls. My BOW kind of day.

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  115. Angry Hippie,

    Those are in the Premium site.

    Le Fou

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  116. Hotrod: Depends on my year's profitability. If I am flat I will enter slowly and carefully. As I am way ahead this year I will probably buy the AGQ I plan on all at once this time. I hate being in the hole and am more careful when that's a risk. I doubt AGQ will open down 100 points the day after I buy so I ought to be o.k. this time, eh? ;-)

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  117. I like SPY here, going to pick some up, earnings season should be fine again.

    It's getting over sold and on it's 50dma, which besides the recent IT low has provided fantastic support. Uptrend still in tack.

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  118. Wish I got in earlier but 2.89 was filled. SLW 45 call June.

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  119. DG,

    Thanks a lot. I as well lean more towards the one big trade.

    You'll be waiting for confirmation of a swing low, correct?

    Thanks.

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  120. MrMiyagi,

    With regards to the tax implications for Canadian residents trading in U.S. funds on a US exchange, I just phoned TDwaterhouse and the rep. told me that the W-8 form is needed only when dividend income is paid. The IRS will withhold taxes on dividend income and by filling out the W-8 form they will release the taxes because our brokerage accounts are in Canada.

    All other transactions, whether it be stocks or options, have zero US tax implication due to our accounts not being in the US, and no forms need to be filled out. Does this seem right to you?

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  121. My Game Plan

    Let's see if the market obliges.

    If precious metals continue this correction for the next 2 to 5 days, I will add appx 15% to my holdings on a daily swing low. Then, on a breakout in Gold above current highs I will add another 15%.

    This will bring my portfolio from 92% invested to appx 122% invested for the final daily cycle of the C-Wave.

    If the market bounces out of the current correction for several days and reverses down below the low of this correction, I will get stopped out.

    If the market bounces tomorrow, I will have to reassess, and will look to Gary for his take to see how he reads things. As a daily cycle bottom in just two days would feel less secure to me. I would probably halve the amount of positions I add, and watch things develop to let a new plan gel.

    Hoping for a little deeper correction to be sure the daily cycle bottom is in and sentiment has been sufficiently cleansed.

    f

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  122. Silver is acting really strong, there might be a call for a margin raise soon if it keeps holding like this :)

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  123. You know your are a member of a good advisory service when its members spend much of their time discussing tax forms! lol

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  124. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  125. Rob L,

    I'm in the US so don't know for sure, but as I understand it a foreign account (with W-8BEN) owes tax on dividends but not capital gains or short term trading profits.

    Just income (like dividends and distributions) are taxed, as foreigners have to pay income tax in their respective countries. I'm not a tax professional, so check in to it yourselves to be sure, but that is how I understand it.

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  126. fubsy,

    Here's my plan:

    If we go lower, I'll wait until metals and miners stabilize (hopefully together), then look to add.

    If we go higher from here, I'll stick with what I have and not make any new buys but keep everything.

    It looks to me like the first option is more likely, but I'm flexible.

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  127. Rob L,
    "The form, issued by the Internal Revenue Service, establishes that one is a non-resident alien or foreign corporation, to avoid or reduce tax withholding from U.S. source income, such as rents from U.S. property, interest on U.S. bank deposits or dividends paid by U.S. corporations."

    That is correct. I might have made it sound like it was for gains as well, but it's for dividends. I have held stocks that have paid dividends in the past. Of course, it doesn't apply to calls.

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  128. Hot Rod: I usually do not wait for the swing low, but buy either off my tape reading or during a but of frantic selling. The swing low confirms that the bottom was in, but if we are in the timing band for a low, mild panic is too juicy to resist. Just my style. Swing low is a bit safer but I believe not necessary this time as things are falling into place well. And a swing low can be reversed by a drop and does not prove a bottom is in anyway.

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  129. DG,

    Thanks. Keep me posted when you see signs to make a move.

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  130. I will post if I do anything other than follow Gary's "time to buy" lead.

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  131. Poly: I like your idea and just bought some SPY myself.

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  132. I want to thank SB, DG, Alex, Poly and all the other experienced traders for posting here so that us newbies can follow along and learn from the pros.

    Thanks for sharing!

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  133. it feels so good not to be over leveraged for once. I could care less if the price drops by 2 or 4 dollars on silver.

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  134. GDXJ is showing a gap at 37.


    Did Gary not mention this would be a severe correction?


    James

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  135. I agree with DG, swing low is nice confirmation when the timing band is exhausted. But like to sell a little early at the top and get back in right around the height of the panic. Easier picking, IMO, when they are running for cover.

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  136. Poly/DG,
    Is this just a minor drop before a ride higher again, or is this the big drop before blast off to the silver moon? What are your opinions and why? What will you look for to know when to add again? I pulled everything out early yesterday and would like to know what to look for when I should jump in again.
    Thanks

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  137. Thanks for the shout out "Gottahaveit" but just an FYI, I am very far from a pro and I'm also not a full time trader, so please just take whatever I post as such.

    Just trying to contribute to the forum and share idea's on how I see or interpret the action.

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  138. Eamonn: A minor drop. The bottoms come in timing bands which is the basis for Gary's cycle work. We don't really have time for a serious drop here and we certainly shouldn't drop below the prior low of $1410. Gary will add when a swing low is formed and I will add the moment I am too scared to add. ;-)

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  139. DG, funny you phrase it that way "the moment I'm too scared to add." I was getting impatient and itching to add - then I remembered that's usually a bad sign. Lol!

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  140. Another big volume open-near-the-high/close-weak kind of day for SLV. Likely we get a scary day tomorrow or Thursday to perhaps finish this dip. Get ready everybody! I'll be interested to see what Gary writes tonight.

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  141. Eamonn,

    I think it's day 2 of the start into the daily cycle low, but that takes time and is a process. See Gary terminology.

    There are no certainties on price.

    Past cycles have taken from 5 to 12 days to find the cycle low. We should expect or be patient for a similar outcome, meaning we do not bottom until next week, give or take a few days. It's a process, be patient with it, don't rush back into trades, the market will give you plenty of head-fakes to fool you back in. That said though, you should be invested enough, as per Gary, to catch a move back to new highs here and a very stretched cycle.

    As for price or severity, it's hard to say. We have seen decent drops in past cycle lows, in the order of 10% for Silver is not entirely unreasonable, I do not see why we should be discount such an outcome.
    Only caveat this time around is that gold didn't stretch too far and Silver held up fairly well on a decent gold drop. That could mean we still have a few more days of chopping around a trading range towards the highs or even a brief fresh new highs.

    A cycle low shouldn't be cause for any concern and Gary portfolio allocation should have you golden. A little draw down after these massive gains shouldn't be any cause for concern. It's also not the time to be radically shifting and reallocating your portfolio, that process should have already been planned and executed. It's easy and costly to over trade cycle lows.

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  142. Me too, I'm itchy to add to make more money. The bull has us spoiled. I'd love to see it do the cycle low so I could jump in again.

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  143. Eamonn: Poly's answer was more complete and better than mine. (Though I suspect this cycle will be on the short side in terms of number of days, but that's just my gut talking).

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  144. Thanks Poly & DG for your comments

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  145. Goldman Sachs tells clients close out long positions in Canada

    Hmmm miners anyone.. slammed on these days. Buy the metal this is 2008 101 lol

    http://business.financialpost.com/2011/04/12/goldman-sachs-exits-canadian-stocks/

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  146. I wish I had some dry powder to buy more on the dip ... that's what I did back in January ... but I'm "all in" now so I just have to sit back and ride it out.

    I MIGHT dip my toe in the water and buy some options at the daily cycle low with the few extra dollars left in my brokerage accounts.

    So those of you buying options, please post what you bought and why so rookies like me can watch and learn.

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  147. GottaHaveIt, I hear ya. I'd like to buy options (not very much, but some) to take advantage to this 1 in a few years blow off event. Haven't a clue what to do re options though. I'm hoping Poly will tell us when to go when the time comes!!

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  148. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  149. This is one of my signals to buy...A fellow pm investor get's really irritated and sends me irate emails right around the bottom for miners. He starts to rip the shreds all the PM bulls out there and calls the frauds, etc. His last name is Hilson and I call it the Hilson indicator. Usually a safe time to buy the miners. I tell ya to the day back in Jan it nailed it.


    Here's a taste of what I just got-


    John Embry should be your knew reverse indicator.
    "Why would anyone short mining shares!"
    Because they're smarter than you John.... you senile F---!!!!
    And for the readers globally I feels that
    John should fire himself, check into a rest home,
    and never talk again.


    Can you explain to me who this Richard Russell is, and why
    Eric King is so far up his rear end.?
    What the hell does it mean to be the king of newsletters anyway.Maybe he should be considered the king of jackasses. I believe Jim Rickards, John Embry,
    Richard Russell, Jim Sinclair and Marc Faber should charter a private jet, and fly into
    the side of mountain.

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  150. silver holding rather strong at 39.8...

    I'm not a expert like most on this board...here is my 2 cents

    Silver: if we panic sell-off here, the next target might be 38.2 which is the 23.6% retracement...other kinds of support at 38 as well

    Gold: if we have cycle top in gold...we rose from 1380 to 1480 this cycle - a 50% retracement would be 1425-1435 range and we already hit 1443 today...I bet that we run through a ton of stops at 1440 and maybe hit 1430-1435. If we see the miners diverge as gold hits 1435, its time to start buying

    As for playing options: I am sure that if we follow Gary when he buys his options, we'll all do just fine :)

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  151. funny post Jayhawk - the Hilson indicator

    also, know how I feel at cycle bottoms...I feel like I've hit rock bottom and everything comes to a standstill

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  152. Jayhawk
    What a hoot, the Hilson Indicator (now forever known as HI). Hope that guy dosn't have an office any higher than the first floor...

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  153. Jay,

    That's hilarious!

    Good Stuff. :-)

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  154. Wow Jayhawk!
    That is quite colorful! I wonder if Hilson's blood pressure will be able to handle a drop through $38!

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  155. I think becoming a successful trader/investor must take at least 5 years to learn. So many signals and gut instincts to develop and much money to be lost before it can be conquered. But very satisfying if you can do it right. Its nice to have this blog & premium site cos at least I can learn from the experienced folk. There is a LOT of garbage sites and "noise" out there

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  156. In all fairness to Hilson though, I know how he feels. I've felt bad before also (but not with such great literary talent).

    If you want to feel serious hurt, pay those guys some good money for subscriptions and then open an account at Monex!

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  157. if we subscribed to Gary, we all knew that this was going to be a ugly cycle low - no surprises so far

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  158. I didn't do anything today but in hind sight I wish I trimmed SLW yesterday vs AGQ. I'm disgusted with SLW so maybe that's a good sign so I'll just continue to hold, no way I'm selling it not after this spanking. Now the real question is should I follow Gary with options or just put it back in AGQ? I know there's been a debate if the miners or metals outperform during the c wave finale so I'm trying to decide maybe I should just overweight in the metals.

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  159. got my ass clobbered with monex . i was new, but the eagerness to get you in a possition and utter disapointment if you try to get out. they had me shorting silver and i kept buying to raise my average and was able to get out. finally i was long and got caught in what was a drop from 17.85 to 16.03.. no lie i sold at 16.13. i lost one years wages

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  160. i think they were watching gary and had me going totally backwards

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  161. remember no one knows the future. this gold trade is speculation.

    just set your stops mentally or on your stock holdings.

    the right time to buy full force (not these itty tiny steps) is at intermediate cycle lows.

    that was back in in the end of january.

    the next one won't be for a while yet.

    just ride this thing out unlevered with the metals, it's a bronco. it's good you guys delevered now because sideways or negative drops could smash your accounts.

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  162. It's great to see everyone is expecting a clobbering.

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  163. I found the reason for the sell off! Here we go-


    US deficit up 15.7% in first half of fiscal 2011

    (AFP) – 1 hour ago

    WASHINGTON — The US budget deficit shot up 15.7 percent in the first six months of fiscal 2011, the Treasury Department said Wednesday as political knives were being sharpened for a new budget battle.

    The Treasury reported a deficit of $829 billion for the October-March period, compared with $717 billion a year earlier, as revenue rose a sluggish 6.9 percent as the economic recovery slowly gained pace.

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  164. JayHawk,
    That was a great email! Did you get that today?

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  165. In a daily cycle low aren't we all supposed to feel disappointed and frustrated at the market, questioning if it actually is a cycle low and not the top of an intermediate cycle?

    Sentiment here is still very positive. Silver could very well touch its 20 day moving average, as it did on the last daily cycle low, before it begins to rise.

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  166. Bookguy-yes, just got those. Had to talk him off the ledge. :)

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  167. peoples emotions can't be just measured with a sentiment guage.

    like time a sell off when it hits 70/75/85 c'mon it's not that simple.

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  168. Rob,

    I dont think sentiment will get very low here as seems that most of us have made a big profits past few weeks and sold out past few days as this decline comes expected so it really hasn't hurt too many of us.

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  169. I agree with Dan about selling over the last few days

    I'd normally be in panic mode by now looking at the miners

    this one I was prepared - I sold off my stocks and locked in profits

    now waiting patiently

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  170. Me too, gold silver troll. I sold off my stocks and locked in profits. I made a LOT of money in the general stock market up to Feb 18th this year. Then I lost it again when the market declined and corrected, and was too inexperienced to see what was happening, and made all the usual novice mistakes

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  171. Hi guys I'm a mewbie here and was wondering if some one oculd point me towards some good texts on cycles and such that you guys use about cycles?

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  172. im waiting, but not patiently
    i start a new job next week and wont be able to watch closely at all... anyone want to call me when gary says buy =)

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  173. gkc

    when gary is around and posting, ask him. he says there arent really any books on cycles, but i think he mentioned trader vik. im not sure though, make sure you ask him

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  174. anyone here play airline stocks?

    they're all up today with nice volume - drop in oil prices is my guess

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  175. we should be comeing to a oil cycle bottom. does gary anounce the oil swing low usually

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  176. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  177. GS Troll,
    I've traded airline stocks in the past but they are too volatile and the risk/reward ratio is crappy.
    Anything can affect airlines: price of oil, volcano eruption, act of terrorism, weather, recession, crash, birds through engines, you name it.
    Forget airlines as a trade, they should be used for travel.

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  178. GKC,

    Gary doesn't know of any books because his system is his own. The premium site has the explanation of his system. I would highly recommend signing up for the premium site. It's the best $200 you'll ever spend. You can try it out for $20 a month before signing up for the whole time. He does run specials from time to time.

    Welcome aboard,
    Le Fou

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  179. And I have a question on how you see this: Why trade miners at all?

    Essentially what is happening, gold is going up because of some fundamental reasons. Silver is outperforming gold, but for a tad more debatable fundamental reasons, so it's leverage to gold trade. This bet is what our investments rely on.

    So everything is just a leverage on top of gold price BUT with added uncertainties. Why not trade it as such.


    Trading miners is just an added unpredictability of CEOs, earning repots, mines collapsing, oil price margin squeeze whatever, trader sentiment changing GPL for another 'favourite' like AG before it too is being dumped - on top of silver/gold price itself, which has uncertainties of its own.


    To leverage price of silver there are other ways that rely directly on price of silver, not a chance of managing to pick an ever changing magical basket of ripping miners.


    So... why do you trade miners? I can think of only two reasons. Personal challenge/fun and not having all of investment in one vehicle.

    Personally, I dont have any miners anymore for about a month now.

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  180. Looks like Hammy has been getting under a number of folks skin. Turd Ferguson on his blog called the Hammy out on his uselessness. About time for him to pop up here and tell us about his Globex Silver short fills at $42.51 at 3am.

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  181. I finally gave up on the SLV April 40 lottery play about lunchtime today and closed it for 30 cents.

    Hope I didn't jinx the cycle low with that move.

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  182. That finally gets me out of all April calls, and hopefully clears the mind for the next move, whatever that turns out to be.

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  183. Sasa-

    I'm starting to come around a bit to that line of thinking. The past 2 days have been ridiculous. No idea why these silver miners are getting pummeled so severely when the price of silver is barely off it's highs.

    I guess there are those who like to OWN a company vs. a derivative of silver where there may be issues at some point with that funds ability to stay solvent. That end game should be a long way off if the conspiracy clan is correct...but what if it's not?

    I guess if our end game is only a few weeks off, I may just go all in metal play and say adios to the miners.

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  184. Glad to see you all got out a few days ago to avoid the dip, but I question your comments that the "decline was expected so most people here got out."

    I have been a premium subscriber here for a couple of weeks and I don't recall seeing a "sell" signal given by Gary over the past few days ... or I would have sold my stocks too.

    So it seems that you all made your own "sell" decisions based on your gut instincts and/or technical analysis of the current market trend rather than a recommendation by Gary, is that correct?

    I just want to make sure that I did not miss something.

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