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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

NEW STOPS POSTED

The new stop has been posted to the website.

492 comments:

  1. Gold 1527.84 [up] 20.61 1.35%
    Silver 48.574 [up] 2.970 6.11%
    Platinum 1823.00 [up] 18.50 1.01%
    Palladium 768.00 [up] 15.00 1.95%

    Winner Winner Chicken Dinner

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  2. Looks like we'll be blowing thru $50.00 on Silver tomorrow. Onto Gold now...

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  3. Bluehawaii-

    Thanks for the heads up on the pocket pivot!

    Guys & gals..This is getting a little scary watching the dollar get smoked so back tonight. And to think, it's just starting. Mid 60's by the end? Yikes.


    Getting cute and selling my stuff was one of the most stressful things I've ever been through. I will never, ever try and get cute again like that. I did catch a break and missed some of those miners selling off, but not having a leveraged metal play KILLED my emotions.

    I was then sitting there in cash trying to pick my spot, trying to pick "the best" miner, index, metal, etc. I became too emotional and was having a very hard time pulling the trigger thinking "more downside was coming". IT SUCKED.

    I just starting buying everything I had on my list once I saw silver crack 46 this afternoon. The miners were going ballistic and I just put in market orders across the board and fired orders into the market.

    Being in cash during the final phase of a bull market blow off cycle could possibly be one of the dumbest things I've ever done.

    Newbies, please learn from this idiot.

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  4. Breaking 50 this early in the cycle would indicate to me to hang on for a bit longer. That's just me though...Maybe folks could scale out?

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  5. gonna hold more for silver and already loaded with DGP since yesterday. I am ready for the ride.

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  6. Gary,
    What is the GLD or other equivalent for the stop? Maybe you can add that to the newly posted stop. Thanks

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  7. Jayhawk, I had same experience, except I did not load up enough this afternoon although I did add some DGP, but it is not nearly enough. I will get in rest position tomorrow. It is much harder to start new positions then just adjust what you have. I also need to remember In bull market, buy the dip.

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  8. Funmike, I think between $145 to $146 is my guess for GLD. Someone correct me if you have a different number.

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  9. Jayhawk,


    No worries, I was in cash too.

    Bought into DGP and SIL.

    I used this final C-wave as a learning experience. My first experience on what is called a runner-away move.


    James

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  10. Jayhawk,
    You are not the only one. I am kicking myself for over-reacting, and didn't jump in today. But, I will be up bright and early for the market open to catch some silver miners, but mostly gold miners, since I am afraid a steep silver correction down the line.

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  11. SD Jack, I think we are all learning on this one. Also, have the rest of my powder to use, waiting for the entry and was hoping for a GLD option like that great silver one we got from Gary. So it will be diving into the dip tomorrow with a good guess! LOL
    Here we go!

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  12. Well aside from my miss trade last week and re buy of agq at 130 I added some DGP at 47 now sitting on
    Agq 70 %
    sil 12%
    slw 14 %
    DGP 4 %

    120% in And pretty comfortable no big buy and sells as i can,t keep up with you folks
    scary watching drop this week but Today was the biggest single day gain ever on my account cash wise

    Lol tomorrow all

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  13. Everybody here'll be kicking Major Ass at the top of the next Big C in 2015!

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  14. Just gotn incredible jolt as I hadn't checked the US$ index for a bit.... 72.92. I don't know what to say, just a couple of weeks ago it seemed that below 76 was unthinkable..

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  15. gold popping nicely. I think it's going to be a blood bath for anyone short in metals tomorrow.

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  16. So are we saying that this C-wave goes till 2013 or 2015? I thought we were supposed to get D-wave soon, and A-wave ends in 2013/2015.

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  17. E: D-wave might be finished by the end of the summer. Then the A starts. Then B. Then the next C should start in 2012.

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  18. No this C-wave will end probably by early July. Then the D-wave will begin. Once that has run it's course then the next ABCD cycle will begin.

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  19. D-wave usually lasts 6-8 weeks.

    A-wave lasts 3-4 months.

    B-wave lasts 6-8 weeks.

    The C wave can last 18 months or more.

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  20. Gary: you're thinking this C will go to early July now?

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  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  22. Jayhawk,

    don't beat yourself up over it. I actually had a similar experience. When I turned on my computer this afternoon and saw 13% plus on AGQ I almost puked.

    What I am not sure about though is that if silver is almost at $50 already and we have another six weeks before the dollar low is hit, why wouldn't we expect silver to get much higher and profit from it?

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  23. Gary,

    by the rate things are going, why not run silver for longer? After all it's still six weeks until we hit the low in the dollar.

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  24. Gary,

    Those of us in SoCal have been planning a meetup in a month or so. At one point you said you'd be in the area for a meet -- would you be up for an event like this, and if so on what date?

    You can expect plenty of free burritos and margaritas, if that sweetens the deal any.

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  25. David,

    Where did you get the statistics, if I may ask?

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  26. Check out the terminology document on the premium site -- it explains everything.

    If you are not a subscriber, do so immediately. It will pay for itself by 10AM tomorrow morning.

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  27. David,
    At 50, I'll buy the drinks somewhere in So Cal that you guys propose.

    I'd like the Westside, as it's fun and safe. Sta Monica.

    No dives, a place to chat'em up.
    If not a lotta folks, Cheesecake Factory in Brentwood?

    You wanna find the folks? If so, we can swap emails. I'm outta the area after 3 weeks for 3 weeks. Otherwise, my calendar will be cleared. I made my offer here about 3 weeks ago, and it'll be fun seeing the characters who make this place what it is.

    Or let's all meet in Vegas at Gary's fave burrito place, so when the managers see the riff raff, Gary might be in permanent apology of what dropped by.

    I'll also host drinks in Boston late this month, anywhere in NC at the end of the month, and NOLA in the first week of June, should any be interested.

    It's been a long time coming. And Missus Market still owes me $80 more to inflation adjust and make her amends. $130...

    Like you David, I'm way up for this splash.

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  28. If silver continues to rally in next few days which confirms today is the daily cycle bottom, I plan to stay with silver for 1-2 more weeks even after it passes $50.

    When Gary established the $50 target, we did not have this new daily cycle bottom. I think it is appropriate to reflect new information .... which is the Fed "asks us" to continue the speculations.

    For simplicity, we can hold silver for half of the expected daily cycle and switch to Gold at that time.

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  29. I think the play is getting into undervalued assets as Gary has stressed. Focusing on AGQ makes one feel like they've missed the boat.

    Those underinvested may want to think about Garys comments on the miners. He has no plans to sell as he does silver.

    They still have a way to go and silver miners may outperform silver in this blow off.

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  30. The action in some miners and in AGQ today is nuts, and great for everyone who's been in it. I wasn't unfortunately. Don't think I want to chase today's out-performers, because I am wondering what kind of follow through we are going to see. Might buy into the less explosive movers. THe only thing is that, if silver runs for another four to six weeks into the C wave top, even the 60s seem a low price target. I guess what I am trying to say is that I would hate AGQ to shoot up into the high 400s while I am moving in a very slow vehicle.
    Hm. Damn, what to do?

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  31. Basil,

    Silver miners are still cheap. A smattering of gold and silver miners should deliver, with limited risk.

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  32. David,

    I haven't looked at the miners very thoroughly lately as I have been invested almost entirely in AGQ. At this point, which ones do you think look good in your opinion?
    Thanks.

    Basil

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  33. Basil, Even if AGQ shot up to high 400, the percentage wise may not look as well as some miners. (500-360)/360 = 38%. I think you can do as well in miner etf with may be less risk. Just my 2 Cents. I think I just talk my self out of buy AGQ right now.:-)

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  34. I think for those who don't have full positions the miners still offer the best relative value here.

    FWIW, @ $1,650 gold, I think a lot of these stocks will have charts that look like First Majestic's recent run up...

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  35. Gary,

    Is $50 still the target to implement the plan?

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  36. Anyone notice strange things going on tonight?

    The USD is still continuing to be down big.

    For a while, gold was not moving and even down.

    Now, gold has moved up and silver is coming down.

    Is this thin market and after hours "wiggles" and to be completely ignored? Of course, we need to continue to watch.

    I started my conversion to gold today (before the meeting thank god) and the million dollar question I am up later here in NY trying to figure out is how much AGQ and SLV options to keep even after silver hits 50. Even if its a teeny bit percentage.

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  37. So Cal crew, if you want the best Mexican food AND the best atmosphere, it's Javier's in Newport Coast. It's also the hippest joint in town. You might even bump into Kobe Bryant or Kate Hudson there feasting on the best crab enchiladas you'll ever taste!

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  38. Jin,

    I think you're right. Overall miners will be starting from a lower level as some have undergone a correction. I guess I would feel better too to invest in something that feels is more 'reasonably priced'. WHat miners are you looking at or are you looking at here, if you don't mind me asking?
    Thx

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  39. Also wanted to point out that this is the first day of the cycle so the meat of this move is ahead of us.

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  40. Basil,

    Honestly, this final stage is going to be so unpredictable, there's just no way of knowing. Everything's going to move, and it's impossible to know what will move most.

    Gary has said he expects SLW to hit $60. That's like AGQ @ $600.

    Like many here I have pared back my exposure to AGQ. I am now about 50/50 gold/silver.

    I have bought UGL, GDXJ, ANV, GORO, AAU, XG for exposure to gold. I have held onto SLW, AG, EXK, SVM, AXU for silver.

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  41. My tournament is in Monrovia on May 22 at the area Crossfit. Dinner after sounds good.

    Basil,
    The odds are that silver will continue to lead gold higher. Parabolic moves rarely suffer a big sell off until they are finished. So one could probably continue to ride silver until the dollar gets close to the 08 lows and at that point switch to gold just to be safe.

    I may reconsider switching this early and let my silver ride a while longer.

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  42. Basil, I plan on staying with what I know for now, EXK, SLW and NUGT. I am going to play NUGT instead of GDX and GDXJ.

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  43. Basil, it doesn't have to be an either/or proposition. Buy some AGQ and a spattering of miners, along with some DGP. There are a lot of ways to play this, just be sure not to miss this opportunity. I know it takes courage to jump on and hold onto a hard charging bull, but this is what we've been waiting for!

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  44. FUNMIKE

    GLD = 145.48

    What you need is the low for yesterday. You can get that by looking up GLD in Yahoo Finance and look in the "Historical Prices" section.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GLD+Historical+Prices

    Best,
    Le Fou

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  45. David,
    Thanks for the ABCD explanation, and suggestions to Basil (was just going to ask).

    Gary,
    Thanks for the clarification on Silver. Have some homework to do for tomorrow's opening.

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  46. Gary,

    May 22 it is. Is Pasadena or LA ok?

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  47. Wingman,
    The Mexican Food is better in San Diego.
    Much more influence from our southern neighbors and closer too.(you know; Closer to the bone, the sweeter the meat!)

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  48. San Diego Jack,

    Grilled chicken burrito from Bahia Don Bravo....

    Yum.

    Slllurp.

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  49. Thank you Gary, David, Jin, Wingman.
    Will sleep over it and make some purchases in the morning.
    Good night!

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  50. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  51. Javiers...

    Bleh! Stuck up crowd

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  52. Gary and SoCal Bloggers,

    Monrovia is on the East side. Newport Beach (orange county) and Santa Monica (westside) would not be convenient. If you want real Mexican Food try East Los Angeles.

    Viva Zapatas in North Vegas is great by the way.

    May 22 - too bad so sad.... I will be on out of town. :(

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  53. All joking aside

    Javier's do have very good salsa chips!


    James

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  54. So..wait, I'm confused. Gary, are you saying that if silver hits 50 tomorrow, we should not switch over to GDP?

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  55. Pseudo,
    He said he is reconsidering.
    The Dollar is getting hammered!
    And he has said all along that this parabolic run is based on dollar weakness.
    Be nimble...

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  56. GARY

    Last night you said you expect this C-Wave to end by early July now. I was quite surprised ,actually thinking you might state that it could gold could top/dollar crash to 3 yr low sooner.

    I saw the dollar drop from 74 to 72.90 in 24hrs yesterday, you must be expecting the dollar to stop and go sideways for weeks like it did at the'08 low?

    Since the rate of climb should become steeper in Gold, And with Gold rising $1425 to $1525 in less than a month, At the recent rate, Gold could hit $1650 area mid may.

    will you please elaborate on your thinking cycle -wise for our benefit here or in the weekend report? Thanks.

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  57. Hi all,

    Wondering if anyone can help...

    I have my money in 3 different accounts & I'm looking for an easy way to track the combined portfolio.

    I'm currently using an excel spreadsheet but I'm sure there is something better. Any ideas?

    Thanks.

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  58. Gary,

    Why the rush ton label new cycles? By your cycle definition, these are not new cycles. The current count of 32 is stretched, but is that alone enough to call a runaway? Was is yesterday's price action around an expected cycle low that did it?

    Thanks.

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  59. VISH

    Sorry I cant help- I do also use an excel spreadsheet , and can auto load the info into the sheet from my acct.

    If you get a better answer, maybe I'll try it too.

    POLY

    I was talking to JAYHAWKS about options and he mentioned you ,Bob L H and WES and a few others as the ones who do well there, so I will be watching ... haha

    Options are not my strength, so I would rarely use them , but would like to use them more in the future c-waves.

    I am away for the morning..Good Day all!

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  60. lol i am glad to see Gary is reconsidering his silver trade...
    why the change of heart?? i thought it didnt matter if silver went to $60 we should be out by %50.

    If anyone wants to finish this C wave making pebbles then they should switch out of silver and into gold. A market this strong could care less about what happened 30 years ago. There is no way i drop any of my silver until the next exhaustion move.

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  61. I plan to scale from Silver (AGQ) into Gold. Moved 1/3 already (general skittishness), will do the other 2 tranches at some level above 50, depending on the price action. Keeping all my miners.

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  62. SD Jack and All: If we are in the midst of a dollar collapse, shorting will be very hard to pull off successfully. As Gary has said, a dropping dollar tends to boost all other asset classes. I am half tempted not to post the items that show up on my short screen, but will post them with this caveat. Once the 3-year dollar low is in, shorting will be easy and almost everything will work. I will be 100% short then, but am just toying with selected shorts now.

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  63. DG

    I know you've said that you wanted to share with me some ideal shorts that come up on your radar...so I am going to go 'all in' on every short you post from today through June.this is exciting...

    Thanks for sharing! :)

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  64. Morning across the pond,

    Newbie sub was waiting for the cycle low yesterday, and is coming back in on the runaway move, now that Gary's OK'd it past $50 in silver. Anyone got a stop for AGQ? Thanks.

    Supermalc

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  65. Good idea Alex! My other suggestion is that you take a remedial reading course. (Hey---I thought you were gone for the rest of the morning? You leave like an Italian family leaves...an hour of "goodbyes.")

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  66. Poly,
    It seems the 8dma was golden again.

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  67. Supermalc: Stops are placed off the action in gold. Silver is too thin. The gold stop is usually the previous cycle low. You sell silver if the stop in gold is reached.

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  68. http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/04/wizard-of-oz.html

    Wizard of Oz

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  69. Vish, Alex

    Try using Google finance, it works a treat for me.. You can track multiple portfolios, or combine them all into one.

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  70. GOODBYE DG!! ADIOS ;)

    and thanks TAURUS

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  71. Morning Everyone

    Anyone adding the rest of their dry powder this morning? If so are you doing it at the open or are you going to wait a little? Thanks

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  72. Haggerty,

    FWIW, I am adding half. My target will be 7 am. I like to wait 30 minutes to an hour after the open. Just my plan

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  73. DG,

    You said that you don't use options and little if any margin?

    Your positions sizes are already large enough? Don't want to be distracted?

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  74. Gary,

    If you are around, I think you said this might run till early July. With the dollar falling this fast, where do you think the dollar could end up? 67?

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  75. 1Q GDP was a crappy 2.8%. Shalom must need to oil his presses.

    Wow. June is really going to be interesting. Stocks might drop off the table with the "end" of QE.

    We should do a burrito bet on the over/under in terms of the number of weeks before some no "Easing" program is announced.

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  76. CORRECTION-- GDP was 1.8%, not 2.8%

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  77. Arrggh....I meant to say "new" easing program, not "no."

    I obviously haven't had my morning coffee...sorry for the clutter.

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  78. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  79. Haggerty,
    Pretty much went in yesterday afternoon and evening. There`s a little cherry on top money left if the cherry arrives. The dollar is bouncing around like a March hare so who knows. I have a pretty good idea what it will look like a month from now!

    Oh, went with DGP. Who knows how squirrely this silver thing is going to get?

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  80. SB, Are you adding back those miners? My interest to add at this point. Did some DGP last night. DG Picks!

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  81. 864life

    I have a little cherry in one account and I was thinking some gdxj aug calls at 40.

    Rob L

    I am playing miners heavy but for the most part just gdxj and Sil and some slw. Plus Nugt, little bit DGP

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  82. Haggerty, me too, adding GDXJ, have sil, slw, adding to AG,exk, svm :)

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  83. Gee, SB, still sleeping in the Far East??

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  84. LMBA close tomorrow and monday!!!! Will we have some profit taking today ?

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  85. Intern: I am happy at 100% and have enough money now. If I make 50% in a year it's plenty. Options and big leverage (for me at least) require extra vigilance and tension. I have no ego invested in trading where I need to see how much I can make or to beat someone else's return. I think it is great that people here make more than I do, but I am very happy with my levels. And the younger guys especially ought to "go for it" with discipline and Gary's help. No great philosophical point for me, just I am happier with my size levels. (I have to admit that given my style of entry point selection and tight stops I am sometimes tempted to go "TZ" for a year and use 3-6 times leverage, but I like to be able to sleep at night!)

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  86. Rob L., I own a portfolio of miners, they are undervalued if you believe the C wave story

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  87. "It seems the 8dma was golden again."

    86d4life, you were too right!

    Which is also why I stay defensive. If we get a "real cycle low" and the 8dma is violated as expected, we're back to talking 10% Silver drop.

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  88. traderlady,

    Thanks...but you do realize who that is in my avatar, right? ; )

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  89. Catbird, YES, and I hope he keeps me in the GOLD, lol

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  90. UUP: yesterday, highest one-day volume in the last several months.

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  91. Good morning all.

    traderlady,

    I'll see what happens after the open, and look for a window to buy some NUGT, SVM, as well as some gold etf (PHYS or DGP).

    I'll keep wide stops as noted yesterday, and adjust my size lower accordingly to avoid a shakeout should a pullback occur. Best to have a size I can hold comfortably. :)

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  92. EXK, AG, and SLW are all candidates as well, although I do not like buying on the heels of 10%+ moves. :)

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  93. I won't make any purchases until we're oversold on the intraday charts. Might be late morning until I get an opportunity.

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  94. Bought more DGP at the opening. Will be adding either AGQ or DGP about twice a week for a week or two. I'll be buying every time I see red.

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  95. Savage is on CNBC talking about Gold and Silver being value plays!

    Too bad its not our Savage :)

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  96. Poly,
    No, you and your chart were too right and I didn`t listen! Remember the other day when silver cracked the 44.80? I had the gut feeling at the time that that was the moment to strike. And I didn`t. The Greed! At that time, what was my possible gain if silver or gold had dropped lower? Not enough to cover the extra I had to pay to get to where I am now. I ignored the risk/reward and am a little disappointed in myself. Thankfully I have the bull to cover my short comings. But we will get to play again another day!!

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  97. Making a little splash with OTM's, a calculated lottery play of sorts.

    Picked up 100 June $160 GLD's @ $0.84.

    Figure even if we print a new "real" daily cycle low it will be quick and short lives as far as GLD is concerned.

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  98. 86d4life,

    Yeah that was kind of my point, it was a good point to trade with a tight stop. It was probably either going to bounce hard off that 8dma or fall right through. I was thinking fall through, but in hindsight should have played both scenarios.

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  99. I bought some GLD 08/20/2011 139.00 Calls

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  100. It's still to early to draw a conclusion, but silver miners should be doing much better than they are.

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  101. The past two weeks is an ideal time to take stock of who you are as a trader. Step back, take a few minutes, and look at it. If you got out and were light, what happened? The only real disaster in trading is not learning from errors. Was it an error? Did you hesitate to get back in if you sold at 362 as many of us did? Will you make that mistake again and so should go Old Turkey more? Knowing oneself as a trader is really the key. There are lots of right ways to do this (I liked that I said "I am buying now" and SB said "I am surely not buying now") but you absolutely need to know your own style and weaknesses and take them into account rather than fantasizing you are someone else. Then build a system around who you actually are, and change it as you grow.

    My trading philosophy for the day...

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  102. So whats the differential, SB?

    I rushed in this morning. Missed out on tons of cash trying to time an entry over the past 10days or so. I figure these prices will look like bargains in a couple weeks, if not sooner. Am I mistaken?

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  103. Angry Hippie,


    I agree, these things are on sale

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  104. SLW looking like it wants to break through the 42.35 resistance

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  105. Is there a GLD equivalent to the latest Gold stop?

    Or, how can the GLD equivalent be calculated?

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  106. DG,

    Now that we are in the final leg of the C-wave, in your opinion does an experienced trader take risk off the table, i.e turn silver into gold, or do they go for the jugular?

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  107. Been shopping. Now at 125%, all SLV options, so still heavily in cash.

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  108. DG,
    Great advise. I know I learned a lot about me as a trader in the past 2 months. Thanks to Gary and all the other solid traders here, too many to mention individually. Those who share and post really do help a lot!

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  109. Thanks, Haggerty. I am all in and hoping for the best. So far so good.

    AGQ - 75%
    NUGT - 25%

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  110. DG - very good advice.

    may add,
    easy to look at things in hindsight.
    so learn your own personal comfort. so what if you missed this move. you think this is over, bah as my dad said, if the train is full wait for the next train.

    there will be many other opportunities.

    in the big picture, the PM trend is up. so don't fight it. determine your outlook and time frame.

    For me I'm in it for life.
    If you're leveraged, you'd be dead so you have to be careful. it depends on how you're accounts are setup.

    Long term, non leverage play on the pure metal. Simple.

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  111. Experienced Options Traders,

    When you guys sell your options and need to exit quickly (e.g. bid might not have enough volume for your order) do you put in market orders for options or do you still only trade with limits?

    I feel like if you need to exit fast, you have to go with market but I can see the market makers in options murdering you.

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  112. Randall: Just calculate the percentage drop gold needs to have to hit the stop and use that to figure out where GLD would be then using that percentage decrease.

    RobL: I like the idea of going for it when I have a large profit as I am playing with "house money." Many good traders, for example, advocate selling 50% of a position if/when it doubles because then the rest is "free." You don't want to get reckless, of course, as that's always wrong (don;t throw the profit away!) but we have a month left on this thing until the 3-year dollar low, so I will be adding often. Don't take stuff off the table yet. The next time you have a day where you think "Holy cow! Look at that!" would be the next time to even think about taking something off. I'd wait a gap up after a "holy cow" day to sell anything. If this is Day 1 of the new cycle you have lots of time.

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  113. Poly,
    Really well put. At the very least, I knew I should have taken at least a partial position but the greed did it`s thing. I guess where I`m a little disappointed is I thought maybe I had learned/evolved beyond that. You know, the way agq was banging away at that 314-315, I thought it had to get through eventually, but for more than 38 seconds.

    DG,
    Sage words again. And we`re fortunate to have the bull to pay the price of our education.

    Kind of likin` DGs Pick too! :)

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  114. RANDALL

    GLD STOP = 145.48

    Just use the low on GLD for the same day that Gary is using the low for $GOLD. You can get that by looking up GLD in Yahoo Finance and look in the "Historical Prices" section.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=GLD+Historical+Prices

    Best,
    Le Fou

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  115. 7.34% Silver Futures $49.33 OMG! :O

    10:09am EST

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  116. Hot Rod,
    If the price of your stock is falling fast then a market order is ok.
    However, market orders usually get filled at bendover rates. Your best bet is put a limit order below the bid, for example; bid 5.10 ask 5.20. If you put in an ask of 5.00, you will probably get filled fast and at 5.10.

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  117. Randall,

    Just use the GLD pivot that coincides with the $GOLD pivot, timewise. Take the GLD low on that day and work from that for your stop.

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  118. Mr. Miyagi,

    Much appreciated, as always. I thanked TZ yesterday for his post on gold but I never got around to thanking you.

    A week ago when you outlined a good DITM SLV call (39 or 40) - it gave me the confidence and clarity to get me feet wet with options. Muchos Gracias.

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  119. Hot Rod,

    A very good reason why I dont trade options on any miner! The spreads are horrible in the good time. TRUST ME, when you want out, the spread is a nightmare and there is nobody bidding.

    Stick with the big tracking etf's like SLV, they pool is deep, it's "almost" safe enough to even trigger your sale.

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  120. This bull is going to be around for years. If we learn from our errors and get better each cycle our SMT crowd is going to be able to collectively buy Manhattan in about four years! Let's all approach this as a business with a great board of directors for support.

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  121. EXK will release earnings next Thursday:)

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  122. Hot Rod,
    Also the reverse works, if the bid is 5.05 and ask 5.15 and like me your broker doesn't allow 5 cent increments, bid 5.20 and you will get filled at 5.15 90% of the time. If you bid at 5.10, you may not get filled if the price trend is up.

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  123. DG,

    Thanks again for the wonderful advice. I consider myself fortunate to learn from you and the other traders on this board.

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  124. Le Fou and Driver and everybody else, ManyThanks!

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  125. DG

    On taking profits vs. adding when a stock doubles, I think it also depends on the type of stock. For a thinly traded, volatile miner, it's usually a good idea to take some profits if/when it doubles. For a liquid ETF, doubling down with house money can generate an exceptional payday. I've seen many illiquid miners give up their gains in a few trading days and have the scars to prove it.

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  126. Gold miners are outperforming silver miners even though gold is only up a little.

    I might just have to focus on NUGT. Let's see.

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  127. SB-

    The silver miners are trying to break out of channels, looks like SVM and SLW are now back testing them. Should be ready to roll from here hopefully.

    SLW

    SVM


    AGQ junkies are going to have a hard time converting to DGP. It's like going from a 5 shot expresso latte to a decaf light roast coffee.

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  128. DG,
    So right. I signed up with Gary in January and I really have a hard time believing how far I`ve come since then. Everybody that posts here is important. I feel pretty fortunate to be here.

    ReplyDelete
  129. DG lets start our own hedge fund!
    if Bernie Madoff can collect billions from investors and keep them happy with 14% early returns i think we can make a killing by offering investors 100-200% returns of actual profits!

    we can implement a system where we all vote on actual trades with some people having more weight than others based on experience and previous success.

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  130. I will "use the low on GLD for the same day that Gary is using the low for $GOLD" = $145.48 GLD conditional stop.

    One account does not have the conditional option; would it be reasonable to use the equivalent AGQ low on that same day for a stop? = $311.80 AGQ stop...

    ReplyDelete
  131. Jayhawk,

    Thanks for the charts, puts it in perspective. Are you also looking at any gold miners?

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  132. Raz,
    Sounds like a great plan, but I see one problem. It would take about 8 minutes and we would start disapearing off the face of the earth, one at a time.

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  133. You're right Jay. I don't see ANY point in trading DGP, none. Even Gary is predicting a 10% rise in Gold from these levels, that's some 20% TOTAL for the remainder of the C-Wave being in DGP.

    I would just trade the gold miners, they have always seemed to handsomely do better than 2x gold.

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  134. Poly,

    Been thinking the same. Are you going into NUGT as SB plans to do? Or are you picking a basket? Thanks.

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  135. Can the 100K committee members send me my membership paperwork asap. I just passed the 6 digits milestone. :)

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  136. we can leave the money in garys name...he is honest and wouldn't run away with the money. However we would have to close off SMT to new users otherwise the market would get distorted quickly.

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  137. NUGT (double HUI fund) vs DGP coming out of the last daily cyle.

    You were better off being long 2x gold miners and then swapping mid to late cycle to 2x gold.

    NUGT

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  138. Dollar coming back from the dead?

    Sil down, making me a little sick

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  139. DG- Great wisdom. To add a few cents to it...

    Trade within yourself and your knowledge set. Don't buy options and junior miners because everyone else seems excited. Understand the risks of OTM options before taking the plunge, and do due diligence on individual miners before buying in.

    If you're not comfortable with options yet, learn for the next wave. (I pretty much stick to Moderately ITM - not yet comfortable with Poly's lottery tickets)

    If you haven't learned about individual miners, stick to the ETFs or ETNs (I'm in this camp) - you'll still make a terrific return.

    The name of the game at this point is not to squeeze every nickel out, but to get as much capital as possible safely to the A wave.

    ReplyDelete
  140. n1tro,
    don't tell your friends, they will hate you!

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  141. Thanks again, Jay.



    n1tro,

    Congratulations on the milestone!

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  142. Jayhawk,

    Thats exactly what happened to me. I bought gold futures yesterday corresponding to what I used to hold in silver futures. And I kept watching the slow rise in gold compared to silver. Damn that was frustrating.

    After a lot of thinking and drinking last night, I finally added silver to the mix this morning knowing its risky, but seeing a top much higher than 50. After that, I felt like I'm invested.

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  143. Raz: You may be joking but I have thought about it. I am getting so tired of the delays my HF partner deals me I have been thinking about going elsewhere with my trading system. The problem is if I share how it works the person i share it with can just steal it. The guy I am working with is totally honest and is the close friend of a good friend who swears by him. Maybe a few of us should start a fund! I'd hate to deal with any legal or back office issues, and my partner has his own multi-year HF set up so that'd all be his headache. i would just make trading decisions. That I can do!

    ReplyDelete
  144. good job N1tro,
    my milestone is to reach quadruple digit percentage returns for 2011. I never thought i would see it this time around but i am very close.

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  145. Haggerty, I don't know if you can see Hammy's blog, but he has some nice Dollar charts up. Looks like 73.13 would be resistance on his charts (he draws nice ones), so looks like USDX just going up to (hopefully) get smacked down into the channel there.

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  146. Haggerty, it's http://marketcyclesresearch.blogspot.com/

    He's a bit "secretive", so you have to send him an email to get access to his site. He rubs some around here the wrong way, but I think its more of a cultural or language issue.

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  147. SB-

    I think just NUGT for me to catch a chunk of the gold miners move.

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  148. Stop on GLD:

    The easy way to do this is to look at the Gold chart that Gary posted, see where the stop is on that chart (below the low of a certain day), then look at the GLD chart, look at the same day, see what the low is for that day, then put your stop a little below that low (like 25 or 50 cents below).

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  149. No magic here guys. I just use Gary's cycles and trade my style. Not a bad return on 13K investment :)

    But seriously, I got my inspiration from DG and some of the other members here playing with their 7 digit accounts. Thanks to all.

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  150. Jayhawk & President Jefferson,

    Thanks alot! Great chart and great info.

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  151. DG instead of creating a hedge fund, I believe you can simplify it a bit by using a service like interactive brokers; people setup their own accounts, than hand the position management over to you to manage, taking a % monthly of their accounts or however you want to "get paid". Much less complicated than creating a hedge fund structure. You're obviously legally on the hook, but if you manage people's money, you always are...

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  152. we can let Gary deal with the paperwork..you know how he loves that lol!!

    a hedge fund is definitely the way to go towards incredible wealth. The hard part is gaining the trust of rich folks to invest their money with you.

    As for charity, we should give money to politicians so they actually do the right thing for the american people.

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  153. jhnewman-

    I think you were the one talking to me about the HUI triangle.

    It held on the daily close again! I'm very happy about that.

    Notice we have a smaller type triangle thing working now...Break out of that and the HUI can start running more.

    HUI

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  154. I can help run the back office from Charlotte. I can get an office up near Wachovia/Wells and BofA. We'll be legit. Just pay me what's fair. That would be sweet.

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  155. Jayhawk,
    I'm liking my Little Kitty today but what do you think happened to AG ?

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  156. Anyone seen or know why the spreads are so wide on the silver futures? I've never seen them so wide during NY hours.

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  157. To be safe on the GLD stop (because gold trades 24 hours whereas GLD does not), calculate it both ways:

    1) percentage drop based on percentage drop of gold
    2) use the low of the day that is the same low we're using on the gold chart, less 25 cents or so.

    then use the lower of those two calculations.

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  158. T: Yes, but then you are dealing with individual accounts and positions which I prefer not to do. Plus there'd be a huge marketing job to get wealthy people to run over discretionary trading authority to you. A partner has a marketing dept., a track record, and wealthy clients they can go to and say "Here's a new fund that'll do well for you..." I don't want another business to manage. Good idea thought that I will keep in the back of my mind. Who knows...

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  159. DG,
    I checked out something here a year or so ago called Tiger Rock Capitol. Essentially what T was talking about. People set up an account with your brokerage and you have acess. You do the trading and charge a monthly fee. they were talking about some pretty good returns, but due dilligence suggested it may have been a scam so I passed.

    ReplyDelete
  160. "The hard part is gaining the trust of rich folks to invest their money with you."- Razvan

    It's not as hard as people believe it is to get involved with a firm, just let the numbers do the talking.

    Although, they are not only interested in the returns, but more importantly the level of risk taken to get there. :)

    ReplyDelete
  161. And there is no need to start your own firm, the money will find you!

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  162. SB,
    Was thinking if people knew the returns we see here, they would think this is a scam for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  163. n1tro

    Congratulations on some great returns ! You must have a good trading style. How long have you followed Gary Guru ?

    ReplyDelete
  164. 86d4life,

    Could be, and I can guarantee the first thing they'll ask is how much leverage was used.

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  165. moondogie-

    for all my joking about "little kitty" I actually bought few yesterday. Looking pretty good if it gets over 4. AG needs to get above 23 or so to get rolling. These popped hard yesterday PM so I'm guessing some digesting of the move here.

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  166. Alex and Vish, I have six accounts between the Mrs and myself. I use Fidelity's Active Trader Pro software. It allows you to combine all the accounts into one. Within the software you can look at the accounts all together or one at a time. It has a lot of other nice features that make it worth looking into. Charting is not the very best, but the combining of the account, reports, etc, are real nice.


    N1tro, Great job!

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  167. Lot of volume and good movement on NUGT. Must be all the SMT subs jumping in. :)

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  168. Moondog,

    My trading style is a big no-no in gary's books so I wouldn't call it good but thats all I got given my day trading background. I've followed Gary since last summer.

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  169. BLH, Looks like we have a breakout in GORO that can finally hold!

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  170. DG, totally valid points. Just wanted to point it out. I worked in the HF world for a decade and it's becoming a higher & higher bar to entry now. If you can become a desk within a multi-strat firm, then you would get what you want without the overhead, but you're PnL would still pay into the infrastructure supporting you...

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  171. The first time we got close to $50 silver there was a lot of talk of profit taking. I am assuming this time most will be holding through a $50 print in expectation of (much?) higher numbers?

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  172. Gary,
    Is your game plan the same? When silver trades above 50 you are going to sell all your silver holdings and rotate it into Gold/gold miners?

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  173. gold breaking above the upper channel line now. as Poly mentioned yesterday, this is what we'd expect in a parabolic run.

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  174. Eric,

    Gary mentioned he's reconsidering that plan. He also said that he won't be answering questions on the blog or by email until next week. So I think we're kind of on our own on this one.

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  175. Also, Gary's plan did not include switching miners. He has said that he's sticking with the miners he currently owns.

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  176. Is anyone here still expecting any type of dollar correction around the jobs report next friday?

    ReplyDelete
  177. Froth
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704729304576287474228291628.html

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  178. Eric H.

    This is a quote from Gary last night.

    "The odds are that silver will continue to lead gold higher. Parabolic moves rarely suffer a big sell off until they are finished. So one could probably continue to ride silver until the dollar gets close to the 08 lows and at that point switch to gold just to be safe."

    I checked the 2008 dollar index and the low was $70.69 in March.

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  179. I jinxed it. After trading above the upper channel line, gold is now back below it. just a pause, or do we reverse here?

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  180. I bet G doesn't sell his AGQ at 50 and move into GDP. We just had a sharp drop. We shouldn't get another one this soon. We're only on day 2 of the new cycle (assuming we are in a runaway and that sharp drop was all we're going to get). If you look at 2006, it was straight up day after day, and then the 17% drop. Anything is possible but how many late comers that need to get punished can we have picked up in two days? I am not switching at 50.

    The other thing is that if we have a big crack it will evolve during the day. I am watching all day sol can start to bail if a dip gets out of hand. I do not believe we will close at a high and just gap down big the next day. We'd have an exhaustion candle first or profit-taking will snowball. Either way, IF you are nimble, you'd have warning signs.

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  181. OK, what happened?

    PMs just got pole axed.

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  182. UUP: once again, highest volume of the year yesterday. Today on pace to exceed it.

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  183. Massive drops! There should be plenty of support here. Dollar again approaching the trend line as well.

    I think its a good spot to add and place stops below supports.

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  184. Here's the late morning dip I was waiting for, so will step into NUGT here.

    Keeping very wide stop of $4, with corresponding lower size and looking to add more on dips I hope are coming. :)

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  185. SB what do you normally use for stops on a day like today? 5% below your buy price? Less? Thanks.

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  186. KAL,

    To me it's more important what the average range is each day, for say the last 20 days.

    Since in this instance I'm "chasing" and buying into short term up movement, I suspect/hope I'll need more wiggle room=wider stop.

    So this trade I'll move up to the weekly average range, which is around $4 for NUGT.

    ReplyDelete

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