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Saturday, April 16, 2011

WEEKEND REPORT

I've unlocked the weekend report. Click here for the premium website. Click on the Apr. 16th link to access the weekend report.

285 comments:

  1. Silver mining shares are astoundingly, monumentally cheap. That said they could remain this way for some time. It is a complete gamble to buy them if we get a correction next week and expect them to outperform AGQ going into the C-wave top.

    It may just be a stubborn losing trade to go heavier miners vs. AGQ next week if we get a pull back. It is definitely not "safe", but the 35% SIL, 35% SLW in a leveraged portfolio is still a great way to catch some of those gains if they do end up outperforming over the course of the next month.

    I just hope to notice the spread-ratio change when it does, because when that time comes you can back up the truck.

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  2. Good info I've Eaten Silver. Looks hedge fund people are behind all the most ethical moves in the financial world... New question: was there a hedge fund manager on the grassy knoll?

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  4. SLW/AGQ ratio extremely close to all-time low:

    Stockcharts.com

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  5. E,

    That's probably too much information for the non-subscribers that read this message board. I will not deny or confirm your statements, but that said, just re-read the report and pay attention just to the actions Gary takes. It is pretty simple and self-explanatory.

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  6. I deleted my comment as there was too much info in it.

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  7. Well, Gary, I'm glad you didn't have to throw you computer in the pool!

    :-)

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  8. All,

    What parameters do you use in your MACD calculations?

    I can see multiple very different story lines depending on the inputs.

    I see an interesting one with (3,8,13) on the USD. Sharp Charts uses (12,26,9) as default.

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  9. Today, here in Madison WI, at a major interchange, I saw SpongeBob SquarePants holding a sign, "Compramos oro" - I think we are definitely getting close to a top, not the top just yet, but this is starting to bubble...

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  10. E, I've Eaten,

    Looks like Gary is saying he has opened up the weekend premium post to non-subscribers. So if E talked about what was in today's report, its ok to post it here.

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  11. Yeah, just listened to Norcini on King World News talkings about that ratio trade. I still think riding some AG, EXK, and AXU the rest of the trip makes sense. I'm not quite giving up on SLW seeing how it gave a 70% move the final month and a half last intermediate.

    After this d wave is over, I think I will select my buy and hold miners to keep for the rest of the bull run

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  13. By the way, I'd love to get everyone's prediction on where silver will top and where it will correct to during the d wave. We can come back and see who was closet. Winner gets a silver plated burrito.

    I say 55, then 33

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  14. Jayhawk,

    Silver kisses $60.05 intra-day but closes at 59.85.

    It bottoms at $25.50, just as Gary reaches the summit of the mountain he plans to scale in Switzerland. He then jumps off the mountain-top, releases his parachute and feverishly begins making trades via I-phone as he sails to the ground. Just as his feet touch gravel he completes the last buy order, fully invested.

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  16. I'd say 60, back to 26.

    And if that happens (and I don't get caught), I'll buy burritos, all around.

    Why so drastic, one may ask? I think this is potentially nasty like we haven't seen in nearly a century. (As well as 40 years prior to the 1930s).

    Anyone up on cycles for socio-political patterns?

    BTW: for reasons that extend way beyond my own little portfolio, I hope I am wrong.

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  17. Oh Rob, you're so much more detailed than I.
    (Inclusion of Gary's summit = nice touch!_

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  18. Jayhawk,

    Would you be in a place to expand on your thought of "miners to keep for the rest of the bull run" ?

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  19. I'm looking for a $58.8 intra-day top, and a $29.95 intra-day bottom.

    How about we put up a 100 bucks for anyone that wishes to get serious with this? LOL, I know most likely it will be like throwing $100 away, but it is fun at the very least.

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  20. Or $50 for the top and $50 for the bottom.

    If anyone wants to bet more or less I'd be down too.

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  21. How 'bout anyone who wants to participate throws in the $100 towards a social gathering where we crown the queen/king of Argentum?!

    Then all jump into Gary's pool!! . . . not that I'm inviting us all over or anything, Gary.

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  22. Vonda
    I'm not sure Gary would enjoy having Queens in his pool ;-)

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  23. HotRod
    For the MACD and Histogram I generally stick with the 12,26,9 parameters for general charting but tighten them up to 5,25,5 if I want to try for an early signal. Be warned though that you need to backtest the tighter setting on whatever chart you are looking at as it can give a false signal.

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  24. I've Eaten - what do you think about that? (Brad posted the article at the end of the last blog posting.)

    SilverRhodesianHound - Sleeping Beauty has arisen! And just as I am to bed. Good to know someone's keeping watch.

    No queens in the pool seems awfully drab to me, however one wants to define queen.
    A brawling mess o' kings then.

    Can you imagine the occasional breakouts that occur on the blog if they had to happen real-time, mano a mano? (Rhetorical question -- really.)

    "Goodnight" all . . .

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  25. Vonda
    I have to admit to having a big sleepin today, being sunday over here. Some interesting info being posted this weekend for those of us not in the know.

    Goodnight and may your dreams take you to places of untold riches that that rest of us would fear to tread.

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  26. You seem pretty in-the-know to me, SilverHound, so I'd be interested in what revelations interested you.

    Great analysis you put out. I feel I can say that because I don't understand most of it!

    Have a wonderful rest of your Sunday. I anticipate waking up to one myself.

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  27. The Hedge Fund play on shorting the miners was news to me although not their manipulation of the market. Those guy's seem to be a law unto themselves. Always coming up with a new scheme to rid us of our burdensome money.

    As for my analysis of things, it's all just smoke and mirrors :-)

    Enjoy

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  29. Wow! Thanks much Gary!

    My wife/I frantically drove out of Tokyo - have been gone for a few weeks, am back now.

    To your report, some q's please.

    1 - is there a relationship between the S&P cycles and the Gold cycle that matters/impacts us?

    2 - how sure are you that a cycle low will occur in Gold (and thus AGQ, SLW, SIL)? More than 80%? I'm asking because I'm underinvested (as in NOT invested), and I need to establish my core position for the C wave.

    3 - a nit on my misunderstanding no doubt, but why are you using leverage at all, 'cause you say good things about how dangerous it is?

    4 - why not 100% in AGQ, as it's 2X hotter than SIL and SLW so far.

    Thanks again!

    p.s. congrats on your lifts! with all your success in lifting, and in trading, all's left is to do a 5.12D I guess - piece of cake, eh? ;-)

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  30. Nice report Gary. It is better than the sunken version. :-)

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  33. Thanks at ease.

    I was pretty scared - still am actualy. Like everyone else though I'm still sad for those who died or lost loved ones. Made me stand way back and ask myself what I'm doing w/the time remaining for me.

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  34. Gary,

    If the expectation is for the dollar to rally violently at some point later this year and for that rally to potentially last up to a year in duration. Given that the cycles in the dollar seem to be pretty reliable, what are the merits of having some exposure to a dollar ETF such as $UUP when that time comes and to manage the trade by cycles analysis in much the same way as we are managing the PM trade now,

    Keep up the great work

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  35. Armo,
    The impending rally out of the 3 year cycle low should correspond to another brief deflationary period. One will probably make a larger percentage gain by shorting overextended sectors than by going long UUP.

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  36. Gary,
    I remember back in 2008 when gas went to $1.43. What do you think will be the depth of this next deflationary period? I mean do you really expect the bottom to fall out or say just mild corrections at the retail level?

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  37. The CRB cycle is now right translated so oil should hold above the 09 levels but we are going to have another recession which is deflationary. The demand side of the energy markets are already impaired. Another recession will depress demand even further so it's not inconceivable we see gas back down to $2.00 in 2012.

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  39. This article was interesting and plays into Gary's cycles. The "D" is coming.

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/263840-get-ready-for-another-sell-in-may-and-go-away-year?source=email_the_daily_dispatch

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  40. gary,

    unfortunatly i wen´t heavily into may SLV 38 put´s @ silver $41.60. Never short a bull market is a tad bit too late for me (became a sub after trade). Should i just go out on monday at any cost or sit tight and wait for the cycle low. what are the odds of seeing the price of silver decline under $41.60 in the next week or two?

    thanks for any advice you can give!

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  41. N,
    Even though we do probably have a dip coming I wouldn't take the chance. If you continue to hold you risk having the bull bankrupt you.

    You've learned a very valuable lesson and you still have the opportunity to exit while losses are minor. Don't let them turn major and don't beat yourself up if silver reverses right after you cover.

    This is one of those trades that you just can't take the risk of letting it get out of control.

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  42. wav ridah,
    thanks for the links on rambus, he seems to be a very special chartist. I also liked goldtent, i spent a lot of time there yesterday.

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  43. Gary,
    maybe not a new cycle, but I am hoping the dollar has not bottomed and that would strecth gold to 1525 and silver to 45

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  44. The dollar most definitely hasn't bottomed yet because we don't even have a swing low.

    I have a theory of how the final dollar cycle and gold cycle will play out that I will go over in Monday's report.

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  45. My wife's 401k doesn't have any good options. Mostly domestic fixed income and equity. A few international options (generally large cap foreign equities).

    Right now, most is just sitting in a PIMCO total return fund. Thoughts on PIMCO? Seems like a far better option than domestic equities or other fixed income (at least PIMCO seems to see the writing on the wall regarding UST).

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  46. If the market breaks below 1300, and definitely if it breaks below the Japan bottom, you'll need to get your wife's 401K out of any stock funds and into a money market till the next 4 year cycle low.

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  47. Gary, thanks. I was considering just that. I do hate to have all that cash just sitting; but it's truly the worst selection of options you can imagine. She's pretty tight with the owners; I'm going to talk to them about trying to get some better options.

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  48. Interesting; SLV is at 161% of its 200 MA, in fact other than silver ETF's only ERX is above 150%.

    We went 6 weeks before the last daily cycle corrected 2 weeks.

    The odds favor some rest or retracement.

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  49. Silverhound,

    Thanks. Using your numbers as well (not default) I am seeing the same pattern.

    Here is a link to the chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p10889908769

    On the bottom are your MACD (5,25,5) and the other one I found (3,8,13).

    Both show a high potential for an immediate bullish crossover for the $USD and both show positive divergence (also bullish).

    These are in line with Gary's strong thesis that a bounce may be imminent.

    Maybe tonight/tomorrow we'll see a fakeout then a strong reversal or maybe even immediate USD strength right out of the gate.

    Any others see MACD telling story of continued USD weakness without bounce?

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  50. CMT, don't forget that cash IS a position, and a valid one.

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  51. That's quite the projected US$ decline Gary....
    Crappy for Canucks like me that trade heavily on the US markets, the Canadian ones being, for the most part, light actioned comparatively. Citigroup alone trades more shares than the total on TSX!

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  52. Hotrod

    Just to clarify. I use the MACD lines to watch for divergence as you have mentioned. I use the histogram bars to watch for a trend change. The bullish cross doesn't seem to come until well into the trend change so you miss some of the run.

    Your 3,8,13 numbers amplify the histogram to make it more obvious. On your chart if you look at the low on March 21, the first shorter histogram bar gives the trend change down to the day, the candle gives a clue as well. That isn't happening this time though which is why I mentioned you need to back test as it's not consistent on every chart and works better with some stocks than others.

    I like your numbers :-)

    Cheers
    Darren

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  53. The faster you set your oscillator the more precise it will time a turn. Unfortunately the faster settings will also trigger a lot more whipsaws.

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  54. Gary,

    Scary reading about the current dollar bull percent, that it's close to 08 levels. Is it not possible that if the dollar puts in a low this week that that low could be the 3 year cycle low, and that it does not head south again and make a lower low?

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  55. If we ever get a daily cycle low in gold, some of the miner's, as far as value goes, are going to be very attractive.

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  56. Vonda-

    That is going to be a great topic this summer if we get a huge sell of like Gary thinks.

    The last D-Wave coincided with the 8 year low for gold coupled with panic crash of 2008, so that was THE buying opportunity of a lifetime for just about any stock...SLW was 2.50 a share.


    If gold moves back down the the mid-1200's and silver in the upper 20's, you could see a massive blood bath on the mining shares...Especially juniors and junior silvers.


    The A wave will retest the highs of this C wave, the B will be mild and the next C will grind higher for several years. So if we are correct, this should prove to be the best entry we will get for the rest of the bull market. If you looked at Trader Dan's ratio spread trade blog post, one would assume that would be overwhelmed and unwind in the years to comes. Then, hot money will flow into the miners and we could finally see the action we've all dreamed about.

    I'm thinking of a core (20-30% of my portfolio) in a wide variety of my favorite juniors for a try buy and hold old turkey style, absolutely not to be traded portfolio. The end of the 70's had penny juniors hitting the hundreds of dollars a share price.


    My favorites so far-
    AG, EXK, AXU, GPL

    and

    Fortuna, Bear Creak, Minera, Arian Silver, Impact Silver, US Gold (they have silver)...there are other and we can discuss these over the summer.

    I'd love your thoughts.

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  58. Jayhawk,

    We think alike. Although the majority of my funds will be used to trade alongside with Gary, I'm looking to use the D-wave to get positioned into some junior miners and even a few top-notch exploration companies. I'll probably subscribe to the Coffin brothers Hard Rock Advisory, possibly a few others, to help with the research. It will be good to put some heads together, as well as use each other as a sanity check to avoid doing something dumb.

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  60. Jayhawk,
    Excellent post with concise & pertinent points.
    I am thinking too of taking advantage of the bloodbath, and position myself for the next cycle.
    Will print your post, and keep it for reference.
    Keep it coming.

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  61. My thoughts, Jaykawk, likely aren't too helpful at this juncture as I'm still very much on the steep slope of the learning curve. For example, I only stumbled across Trader Dan this morning, thanks to discussions lingering from last night. (thanks, SilverHound, I've Eaten, and Brad.)

    Funny how things can be staring you in the face but you don't notice them until you're just about ready to be able to take them in.

    Your thoughts, however, are truly of service and inspire me to step up and start researching. Hopefully by summer, I'll be able to contribute something of value. Thank you--sincerely!

    Tudor, You gonna go for the "elite" 2K/year alert service from Coffin? I'm intrigued. Maybe I'll try out the journal then jump into the higher level once Gary helps me double my money again.

    Thank you, lads, so so much!

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  62. Tudor, you mention "Coffin brothers Hard Rock Advisory, possibly a few others". What others might they be? I'm interested in other newsletters. Thanks for your help

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  63. For the good of our community here, and to ensure we get on with the much-anticipated daily cycle low, I'm going to put 10% of my portfolio's liquidation value into more AGQ at tomorrow's open.

    That should get us the sharp correction no later than 4:00 EST Tuesday ; )

    But seriously, seeing as how I'm currently only 75% invested, I don't have much to lose by adding another slug of AGQ. I'm not selling a single share until Gary thinks we've topped.

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  64. Thanks CatBird! Appreciate your sacrifice!

    Perhaps I'll join you in a ritualistic-size move: If I want that low, must show the sun-gods my willingness to buy high.

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  65. will you Gary, and crew be a buyer in US treasury bonds when, the usdollar trend reverses?

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  66. Vonda, I'll probably go with the Dispatch (mid-level) subscription for starters and see if that fills the need. I subscribe to Gene Arensberg's "Got Gold Report" - he speaks highly of the Coffin Brother's work. Gene also makes recommendations for junior miners. He's VERY picky, and will only recommend when they are dirt cheap (pun intended!)or have a very clear catalyst.

    Eamonn, Brent Cook's "Exploration Insights" is a possibility, as well as Casey Research's "International Speculator". (I'm already a Casey Research Subscriber.)

    If anybody has a junior mining newsletter recommendation, I'm all ears!

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  67. Some video of Gary climbing a couple of rocks?

    http://www.wimp.com/eigerrecord/

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  68. Edwin, i would be very careful about buying the US treasuries unless you believe in QE3 ...

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  69. No problem, Vonda. I'm a team player. Such "chasing" purchases always seem to do the trick when I'm hungry for a sale on my asset : )

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  70. Hey Folks,

    I'll likely be sleeping when we hit the dip so I was planning on setting a buy signal at gaps in SLV and SIL to add to my position. Where do you guys see the gaps? I was thinking 26 on SIL and 37 SLV.

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  71. Eamonn,
    I`ve got International Speculator from Caseys and they really take the junior sector seriously. Plus you can get a full refund for up to 3 months if you don`t think it`s the clear deal. And they give a lot of good investment advice, not just telling about individual companies.

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  72. Those of you looking for Junior recommendations:
    David Morgan rarely has a looser and his picks have beat owning physical silver by about double so far. He is very conservative and seems to have a great formula for figuring out the cost of getting silver out of the ground, the cash on hand of the miner and the likelihood of the miner becoming a valuable stock.

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  73. Jayhawk,
    That was a great post c wave plan. Thanks for posting that.

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  74. I've Eaten Silver,
    $53 and $29, I'm not a betting man. I don't like to lose money.

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  75. "I'll likely be sleeping". You a night shifter too? Someone mentioned a gap on AGQ at 225. That's the area I'm watching.

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  76. For this daily cycle, I think the way the market is faking us out is to make this rise almost parabolic (face top-C), then waterfall drop (fake D), so everyone will run out, then back to the true final top C, where then everybody will be chasing, since by then, everyone will recognize that's the final top... Would be violent whipsaw... Any thought?

    BTW, I am currently reading "Mind over Money" (someone here recommended this), so far it's a great book... I thought I knew a lot about psyc, but this analysis is very clear and good, and applicable to any situation that induces stress!

    And thanks for the tips on SPY, I am sure there are a few of us with 401K limited to some index markets only... So please, if any of you see anything coming, please post!

    Thanks to all the gurus on the blog.

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  77. 86d4life, how good have their calls on the juniors been?

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  78. Sorry I don't know what that translates to SLV and SIL but I will definitely be adding a few etf and stocks based on AGQ's gap.

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  79. Tudor,

    I signed up with numerous newsletters including Casey prior to finding Gary. I make cycle theory my main focus now but as Jayhawk said so well, this summer will be a good time to choose some good miners for a long hold.

    I've enjoyed my sub with John Doody and I think that he presents a very thorough analysis in this regard. I'd be glad to share insights if you have an interest.

    Hey Catbird... Thanks for 'taking one for the team'. I was thinking about doing the same thing but I've
    already taken my turn ... a couple of times ! ... :)

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  80. Wave_Rida

    Sort of a night shifter. I work Midnight to Noon in Afghanistan. I get to work just before market close and can sometimes log in before it closes depending on what is going on here.

    Yeah, that could work, set up a conditional order.

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  81. Eamonn,
    I was just going to try to fling you some numbers and than I thought better of it. The last couple years, maybe 95% + winners. Of course some are small, but than throw in a couple whoppers and I want to say somewhere around 90-100% returns per year. You have to go to Caseys to get the solid numbers but I think these should be close.

    On the subject of the miners though; seeing what a lot of people are making here for returns, all of a sudden going through the whole miner thing starts to look like a lot of risk, research, work, sweat and hassle and for what? Alex does a bang up job of trading and I`m sure others do too, but honestly this whole old gold turkey thing is getting more attractive as time goes by. I don`t believe I`ve read an issue of I.S. since I subscribed with Gary. I`ve had numerous newsletters over the last 2 years and will let them all lapse. For me, this is really the place to be.

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  82. Moondoggie,

    I'm definitely aware of Doody's GSA. What sort of miners does he focus on? Majors? Juniors? Exploration stage? My impression is that he focuses on majors and juniors with 43-101's. I say that because I believe he made an "exception" in recommending Gold Resource Corporation (GORO) as a Top 10, even though they don't have a 43-101. He seems to have a really good track record, or at least gets glowing introductions when he's interviewed. He could fill the bill for juniors and then I could look elsewhere for exploration stage companies.

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  83. 86d4life,

    I have to agree with you. I'm not resubscribing with David Morgan after my subscription runs out because I'm making much more with Gary. It isn't even close.

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  84. 86d4life, thank you very much for your thoughts and perspective on things. I'm always wondering what other subscription newsletters are like, and if I'm missing out on something

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  85. 86d4life & Book Guy,
    Same here, find that I get so much more for my money with Gary, and now just look & listen to the "noise" that other publications make. Especially CNBC, the more they shout, the less I listen, and just watch the events.
    Still have one other newsletter called 'Energy Advantage' and that's it.

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  86. I am just a little bit concerned as I want to continue making money when the d-wave comes. What then?

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  87. Tudor,
    Caseys international Speculator does both juniors and explorers.

    Book Guy,
    And you know the big deal about it is, there`s nothing wrong with some of those other services, it`s just that the total package is here. I mean honestly, is there one person here who could say that $1000/yr for what we get with Gary wouldn`t be a steal and a half? Let`s try this; a show of hands. Any body who has roughly followed the plans Gary has laid out and lost money;

    Looking a little thin out there in tv land.............

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  88. I spent $2k on one newsletter and didn't get half the money I've gotten with Gary and I've only been subscribed since January. I always knew what Gary offered was possible, but spent a few years and lots of dollars to find it. Gary is the man.

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  89. 86d4,
    Couldn't agree more. Nothing wrong with David Morgan, he was fair, made me money, kept me from loosing money and did a great job at what he did. He is fairly cheap too less than Gary.

    Paid up to 2K for one a few others below $500 and nothing has made me more money that Gary, not even close.

    I'd easily pay more money for Gary's service. With the information he gives us we could theoretically learn to do what he does. I know some of you could, I don't have the thought process for it. I'm wired differently. He offers a big education, great buy and sell signals and a lot of peace of mind for a small sum.

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  90. Bookguy,
    Gary's use of charts & explanations is what sold me. I am visual, and it all gels with me. And super happy with his pricing too.

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  91. I hate to even say this in this crowd because most of you know the reality(the reality being in this business if we don`t take in as much info as possible, we`re very likely cutting our own throats)but my primary means these days is to keep up with this blog. I don`t know this for a fact, but my reality is that this is the cutting edge at out level.

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  92. Jay:

    If you are out of the miners (as your blog indicated), what price do you plan to get back in for this final bit of C? For your favorites: AG, AXU, EXK, GPL? and SLW? Thanks much.
    (were you on TSPTalk before?)

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  93. SDJ,
    Hey, can you give me the copy and paste again. I was looking for it on Friday night and almost went blind. Gong to write it down this time. Thanks a bunch.

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  94. You mean the process of cut & paste, or copy and paste?

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  95. SDJ,
    The process. Like what you sent me the last time. I did eventually get all the pieces together last time, but just fell asleep at the wheel. Then I went back to it later, and there is some part of the process that I`m bothching. Thanks again.

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  96. 86d4life,
    Try this lesson on YouTube:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c66pvfilotA

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  97. SDJ,
    That`s really swell. I never thought of going to youtube. They have almost everything. It`s a pretty great way to learn too because you can keep going over things, meaning it`s not just a one shot deal. Thanks again.

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  98. I don't disagree with the sentiment that getting into PM miners investing might not have the cost/benefit ratio to make it worthwhile, especially considering the time required to do it right. I still think I'm going to give it a try with a small (10%-15%) of my funds. Gary's commented that it's more of a buy and shove it in a shoebox sort of approach. Could be. I think it could be worthwhile if/when the PM bull hits the mania stage, just like the late '90's with the tech boom, with 1,000%, 5,000%, even 10,000% winners. I have no doubt that there will be such gains to be made. It's not for everyone, for sure, and investing solely alongside Gary is a perfectly defensible approach.

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  99. 55-58 at the top, 35-38 for the bottom

    my predictive bottom is not as low as some as i believe there will be way too much global buying pressure under 40 bucks

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  100. Action and reaction. The further any asset stretches above the mean the harder it snaps back once the regression occurs.

    I don't think I've ever seen a parabola that didn't eventually collapse back down to and usually below the 200 DMA.

    My best guess is somewhere between $21 -$25.

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  101. Tudor,

    GSA identifies a portfolio with 10 miners(incl. SLW)that they think are undervalued with the most upside potential. Some of them are majors (example :GG) They also show research on a large 'watchlist'.

    I had 100% plus gains on 2 recommendations last year but the others did not keep up. I ended up dropping all of them (except GORO) but I will look at the list again this summer. They are generally quite conservative.

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  102. Gary

    That would be wonderful, my guess is 52 then 32-34 ish

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  103. Jayhawk?

    Are you tracking all of these guesses ?

    My guess is $56 / $26.50

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  104. My guess is high 40s and at the bottom we will hit the 200DMVA as always so in the high 20s.

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  105. I notice most people think we`ll blow past $50 pretty easy. Right now the gold;silver ratio is 34.39. Does anybody imagine silver will tap on the brakes close to the top and let gold play a little catch up?

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  106. Jim,

    Absolutely incredible video.

    I must ask the question though, why?

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  108. Jim

    That Eiger clip, I got a buzz just watching it. Imagine the rush of being there.....

    Thanks for posting.

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  109. Clarification Please;
    Are the tops and bottoms you are predicing for just the price of silver?
    And is this for the C Wave Top & D Wave Bottom?
    Thanks in advance.

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  112. SDJ,
    10-4

    Gary,
    Is there a `standard` gold/silver ratio for c wave tops? I remember seeing a while back that we hit 16 3 times in the last century, but those are final c wave blow off ratios, yes?

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  113. Gary,

    At what point would (and if) you consider Gold ignoring the Dollar increase? WIll it take only a day or two of action or do you have some "feel" for a threshold/ratio?

    Thanks.

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  114. Historically the average is about 20:1.

    This is the lowest by far in this bull market so far.

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  115. Dan,
    I was a residential carpenter for about 20 years and there are several roofs that really stand out in my mind. My toes still tingle just thinking about it. The point when your about to hurl is when your really living; no drugs needed.

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  116. Hot rod,
    It's not a big concern for me as I'm still heavily invested. All I'm looking for is a cycle low before purchasing my options.

    The way you will know that the correction is about to begin will be when you can't stand the pain of being out any longer. Then as soon as you load up the pullback will begin.

    I don't think the top will come Monday but I do think it will probably come some time this week...probably towards the end of the week.

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  117. Is that Gary in the video, climbing that scary mountain?

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  118. 86d4life, I wonder if I could ask you an off the topic question, regarding residential carpentry? Or is that too much to bear for you? Thanks...

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  119. Eamonn,
    If I don`t have to have sawdust in my eyes, no sweat.Lol.

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  120. OK, I'll play along. My wild guesses:

    Silver at C wave peak: $52.09

    Silver at D wave trough: $28

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  121. 86d4life, could I ask you in an email...? Its probably not right on the forum given its house modification. I just need an opinion that your experience will have a nose for. my email address is smartbullion@gmail.com, or if you want to share yours here I will send you one. thanks...

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  122. Open to anyone,

    After playing a little quick draw Mc Graw with the calculator, if we`re looking for a gold/silver ratio of Somewhere around 20, we have to start recalculating.
    Using $1630 gold
    $50 silver= 32.6

    Three possibilitys;

    The ratio is off,
    Gold slows down or,
    Silver starts getting Midevil.

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  123. I doubt the gold:silver ratio will get back to 20 during this C-wave.

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  124. Since we are all guessing
    $49.50 c wave top and
    $33 D bottom

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  125. Okay, I'm not a math wizard, but wouldn't a ratio of 20:1 in silver to gold at 1630 gold, be $81 silver?

    So, if silver is at 32:1 at $50 and the traditional level is 20:1, that means silver has a lot more room to move?

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  126. Elaine,
    But what if we tweaked it a little and use $60 for silver;27.16 on the ratio. Maybe fits a little better and maybe `feels` a little better the way silver has been advancing.

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  127. Dear King Dollar,
    please swing low and bounce already,
    Aaron.

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  129. $50 plus Silver?

    The problem with a number much higher than this are the mining companies hedging. General miners with silver as a by-product of copper/zinc/lead mines are already starting to sell forward.

    Two silver only mining companies will be locking this price in at $50 plus or minus a few dollars. They have said this in public at last years Silver Summit/September of 2010.

    It will be an interesting battle over $50.00. Who has more clout???

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  130. At Ease,
    Bummer on your computer situation. I`ll try to remember to holler at 74.17. How are things going over there?

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  133. at Ease:

    Not sure where in the world you are. Did you know you can pre-pay for a certain amount of data from your cell phone carrier when away from the USA?

    I know on AT&T it's just $ 25.00 bucks or so for 500MB or something of that nature. That should cover you for a week?

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  135. At Ease,
    That `s the huge linch pin of this trading gig. The `puter service. I`ve been down here in Margaritaville(without the margaritas lol) for going on 6 weeks now. All wireless service and I`m actually surprised how reliable it is, but there were a few tense moments last week; power outage, ISP was down, winds over 40 once in a while you think the whole place is going into liftoff. Now I can`t leave `til I get the extra cash deployed. Bummer, caught the biggest trout of my life this morning. Lol.

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  137. At Ease,
    Thanks. That was a release. I gave her a big kiss on the top lip, said `Thanks for stoppin by Baby` and watched her swim away. Then I almost collapsed! LOL! Ironically, it was very soon after that I wondered how many people here will be going through the same thing at the top of the C.

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  139. at Ease, any option to just buy a light weight "travel" laptop that has your trading software on it? Probably to much to do right now as you are already on the road and maybe a next time type thing. I know the feeling of trying to connect on the road!

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  142. at ease,

    Not sure, but do you mean the UUP ETF?

    For your wireless, it could be Windows. Go into Control Panel, click on Network Connections, and see your wireless connection icon. Right click on it, and Disable it. Wait a few secs, then Enable it. It might then work. Good luck.

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  143. No offense but if you guys are just talking to yourselves and not a greater audience, and also aren't talking about stock/gold related topics you might as well resort to AIM or email- this board is getting very hard to follow.

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  144. I think as silver gets more and more publicity the buying frenzy will be insane ... so my wild guess is silver gets all the way to $67 (!!!!) and then falls back to $30.

    I figure if I'm more agressive than everybody else, I have a better chance for my guess to be right. LOL

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  146. Just curious. Why do you need to know where the dollar is on a minute by minute basis?

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  147. Gary,

    Can you speak to what happens when all these big money folks like university endowments have tens of millions of dollars tied up in gold when gold crashes in the D-wave events? Are these buyers also leveraged, or do they just keep the real assets in the hope that they rebound in value sometime? Can they offload so much physical (or paper) fast in a meltdown, or what? Do those players affect the market? It would seem to me that those situations are alot different than say GS or Chase, with their opportunities to short metals and stocks, etc. Thanks!

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  148. I'm sure some of these big players that are coming to the game in the 9th inning are going to panic and sell just like everyone else.

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  149. AT EASE,

    Did it ever occur to you to type "dollar ETF" into google?

    I'm with EatenSilver here. In my opinion people are more and more reflexively just asking questions with little-to-no-regard for trying to get the answer themselves.

    I defer to Gary though who will probably just want to let it ride, but I notice he has already indicated the swamp of posts is too much.

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  150. Oh...and if I was overseas with no working laptop I'd have walked into the nearest store and had a new one up and running in 15min. Price irrelevant. You will make or lose many multiples of this crappy dell you are agonizing over.

    I'd go so far as to pay a person working on a live laptop at a coffee shop for the computer out of their very own hands. "Dude...here. I'll take it for $300. Go buy another one."

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  151. Thanks Gary. TZ, totally get that comment. I definitely fall into that camp. I like to learn, sometimes I guess all us rooks ask too many questions. Honestly I just can't believe that such "smart" people cold be buying so much gold right now. But, I guess it was "smart" and wealthy folks and endowments that gave Bernie M. all their money too.

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  153. I've got 12 calls so far written down. Clartoid and Haggerty had ranges for their calls so maybe pick a specific number?

    How about all the losers send the winner a Silver Eagle? :) I've got to figure out a way to score it.

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  154. On the market, I said that friday would help indicate (in my mind) whether we were now in a terminal blowoff phase or not.

    (I guess I would define such a phase as the final movement up where there is little or no pullback entry point of significance.)

    Based on friday, I think the odds of that are, say, 60%.

    Maybe we start dropping hard 3 hours after my post here and I'm totally wrong. Who knows, It happens. But that is how I see it for now.

    I think a few more weeks of pretty relentless gains at this point then out.

    CLEARLY I could be WRONG. And I'm also contradicting Gary's view of the situation, (and I have stops in as well), so call things as you see them and take your lumps if you get hit.

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  155. TZ, how do you work your stops? I'm out mostly because I suck at stops. I stopped out on AGQ I guess because I'm too new to know how much padding to give the price floor. Any general advice, or is it a gut feeling you have developed? Thanks in advance.

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  156. Regarding the "predictions", what is the qualifier to determine the C wave top? How do we know 100% that D wave is in progress and it is not just a "big" dip? Is it a break of the 200 DMA, 100 DMA, etc?

    What also qualifies as a D wave bottom?....

    Looking back where Gary says the C wave started at $860, on a long term chart, it looks like just another "dip" almost impossible to see.

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  157. sophia, i've been buying bonds lately accumulating for a trend reversal. here and there.

    so far haven't made much money but haven't lost any either . up around 2%

    in reality no one knows where this is going to end up..


    it wouldn't surprise me that gold gets taken down to 1460.. or hover at 1488 for a bit.

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  158. At ease,
    Well first we have to get a swing low. That can't even be determined until the end of day.

    Once we have a swing the bounce should last a minimum of 4-5 days which would theoretically correspond to the dip in gold.

    Bottom line is nothing is going to need to be done this week. All you need to do is check in at the end of the week and see if the dollar has begun to rally and if gold has started to correct.

    If all you are doing is waiting to add a little then just let your current positions work and in the meantime enjoy your vacation.

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  159. wow just saw silver 43.88 that crazy!

    keep on rolling.. c'mon miners pull up those socks. like to see them catch up to the metal action.

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  160. Jay:

    If you are out of the miners (as your blog indicated), what price do you plan to get back in for this final bit of C? For your favorites: AG, AXU, EXK, GPL? and SLW? Thanks much.
    (were you on TSPTalk before?)




    No, not on TSP before. Another Jayhawk?

    Both cycle guys (Gary and Doc) are saying this daily cycle is due to put in a bottom. Both think it could be a pretty hefty shake out...Could be over REAL quick so no time to mess around.

    The question at hand...Will miners continue to decouple and the metals outshine the final daily cycle? Could the contrarian play be the way to go with some high powered junior silvers down the stretch?


    I think the miners will rock going down the finish line, but will the keep pace with AGQ? Do I want to be in an leveraged silver fund with the slippage and devastating effects if silver goes into plunge mode?

    I think I will go 50/50 for my split. I could see a strong wash out and the miners (HUI) correcting about 50% of the move off the March lows. This is not a very big drop from here. Silver miners would take a bigger hit...I think it would be a big one day down event or one day and the following AM gap down and reversal. SLW's got some support I'm watching.

    The other possibility is the miners start to rally the first part of the week and then correct with gold and silver, putting in double bottoms on current price levels.

    Lastly, miners launch and play catch up with the metals and everything runs away until the final peak. As others have pointed out, that would suck.

    The first part of the week should be interesting.

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  161. In real time that insignificant dip to $860 was 14%.

    A 14% dip from Fridays close would take gold back to $1278. The move back to $1382 caused mass panic just a couple of weeks ago.

    Some were even convinced the D-wave had begun.

    Now imagine what would happen if gold dropped to $1278...then multiply that by 2 and you will have a D-wave.

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  162. Edwin,
    Where do you see 42.88$? I don't see it as having gone over 43.36$.

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  163. The thing that's comforting about the HUI is it back tested Gary's triangle pattern perfectly and found support there. There's also the 38.2% retracement level hit right on that price point.

    50% is 563 and I'd like to see a intra day touch of that vs. a close under the line to keep the pattern valid. Although Gary would say ignore patterns and TA at this point.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/4fcf2435-1ceb-4476-9991-e7fba199a8a1

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  164. i'm buying and holding this bull until the presses stop.

    man this is going to be a rough ride.. but yeehaw

    riding this bull is going to be rough. gold's been showing about 10% +- silver about double that 20%

    can you stomach a 148 drop in gold (1486 - 10%) , or 8 dollar drop in silver( 43 - 10% ) that's good.

    wise words to live by, "you better check yourself before your wreck yourself"

    http://youtu.be/1JX57xpAikY

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  166. whoops yeah meant to write 43.88

    and in my last comment meant to say (43 - 20%) for a silver drop no (43 - 10%). it's late my hand is falling asleep :p

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  167. 43.88$? I don't see that anywhere..

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  168. mr. miyagi - sorry 43.38 stand corrected.. not only are my hands tired, my eyes are too.. :p

    http://barchart.com/quotes/futures/SIK11

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  169. Ah...yes. One day soon, it will be that high.

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  171. Once we get the correction and a swing to mark the bottom the next cycle should last 20+ days before topping. Missing one or two days isn't a big deal.

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  172. Gary,
    Quite generous of you to open up your weekend report to all.
    Off for tonight, back in the morning.

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  173. At ease:

    Will be glad to shoot you an email if/when USD gets that low. However, it's already in the green as of now. On goldseek.com, it is now at 74.99, up 0.133.

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  176. This is getting annoying. At ease: if your top google answers are coming up in Spanish, go to the preferences and click " show only results in English" if you are in Spain, you might be on the Spanish google page by default. Look at the address bar. If you have anything except .com after google, you are defaulting to a non English google site. Change it to .com

    Can we conclude the all At Ease show now?

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  177. at ease,

    I know sometimes it can be stressful being on vacation and you want to buy or sell. If you use blackberry messenger, I can send you a message if and when we get alerts from Gary and if something develops.

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  180. at ease,

    You're welcome and you shouldn't feel bad for asking questions or for help. As far as I'm concerned, I would like to believe we're all here to help each other make money.

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  181. Wake up DG!! Eur/usd is collapsing!!! Finally! Just bought back my short of Friday at 1.4314!!! Nice way to start the week....

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  182. DX at 75.26 so I guess that we have a swing low....
    Gary, you are a genuis!!! Thanks for your constant input.
    Btw, in Chamonix now with the family, Mont Blanc and Aiguille du Midi are simply glorious under the sun!!!

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  183. Bill,

    Glad to hear that you are back. As you know, I have colleagues and friends in Tokyo and hope that this terrible succession of disasters stops soon. All the best

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  186. Hi Sophia - you're in a good spot at the foot of Mt. Blanc - lucky you!

    Gary, I'm thinking about becoming a subscriber. You're very successful at trading, and that alone is probably worth it. The nut I can't get over though is that I don't yet believe in cycles - oh sure they happen and all, but are they regular enough to trust, in the way you trust your belay partner when doing a 5.13D - it's THAT serious to me. I'm sure you agree.

    For instance, I agree w/you that EW doesn't work, even if the concept is cool about crowd theory and all, it doesn't work on the charts.

    So w/regard to gold and the S&P, what can I read or do you have something you can publish to help folks like me distinguish between cycle theory and the tooth fairy? ;-) Seriously. If I can get past this, I'd be a sub in a heartbeat.

    FYI the other pillar of your trading model - crowd psychology/sentiment - sounds dead on.

    Thanks much.

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  187. Jayhawk

    I'm in for a silver eagle. To be more exact. I'll say 51 on the high side and 32.50 on the down.

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  188. good morning...

    it looks like we have a swing low on the USD, it printed 75.3...

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  189. Greed, looks like, but don't we need to wait for MOC (market close)? I mean, if it crashed in NY time and made a LL (lower low), that'd negate it wouldn't it?

    Sure looks like it though.

    Gary, cycle-speak, is this on time? I thought you wrote earlier that you expected this later this week? Thx.

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  190. Bill,
    Cycles aren't an exact timing tool. Mostly they just tell me when to step on the gas and when to coast.

    Right now they are saying it's time to coast in gold and it's probably not a great time to be aggressively short the dollar.

    But the big cycles like the 3 year cycle in the dollar are what allowed me to call this final C-wave rally. It also told me we where going to have this dollar crisis more than a year ago when everyone was bullish on the dollar.

    The four year cycle in stocks is what lets me say with confidence that we will get a top in stocks soon if we haven't already and that we will be heading back into a recession and another leg down in the bear market starting probably this year.

    I suggest you start with a monthly membership if you want to try it out. You're only out $25. You will get access to the archives and if you don't like it cancel before the month is up and all you spent was the price of a modest dinner with the wife.

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