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Monday, April 11, 2011

Portfolio change

A portfolio change has been posted.

364 comments:

  1. Just reduced my account from 150% to
    100% also. Great profits past couple weeks just hope it doesn't shoot higher!

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  2. Dan - you can say that again

    and again

    and again

    and again....

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  3. Reposting here:

    Poly,

    Thanks for the shout out on Friday about how the daily cycle might be close to topping. I had small positions in AXU, NG, and GDXJ, and a larger position in SVM, all of which I sold on Friday, near the top! :-)

    (I let the trend/channel lines on the 5 min chart take me out on each one. I had OCO orders with a limit order near where I thought it MIGHT be possible to hit on Friday, with the other part of the OCO as a tight stop along the lower channel or TL. I kept moving that stop up during the day and eventually they all were taken out.)

    I still have a core of SLV and GLD, both shares and deep in the money calls. Sounds like my core is a little larger than yours--40 percent in cash right now.

    Not sure yet how I will deploy that cash, whether to keep it all in GLD/SLV or whether to buy back some of the mining shares.

    Do you intend to just stick with SLV options or will you also buy some of the miners?

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  4. Looks like a test of the 600 breakout on the HUI right now

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  5. Pima,

    The 35% I have remaining is nicely leveraged on July SLV's $32's, so I still have more than a 100% boat :)

    As for re-deployment, I'm not certain. I know most of it will go to higher strike SLV's, that is my core. I'm also thinking Gold needs a big rally here too, so I might do some GLD's.

    No miners for me. But I might allocate 10-20% on a very aggressive play, something like a not too far OTM AGQ call and hopefully purchased near the bottom, try to pickup some panic sellers.

    What did you have in mind?

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  6. Gary, you are moving 32.5% of your total capitalcapital into DITM SLV call options after the correction?

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  7. I just sold 35% of AGQ and bought SLV instead until the daily low.

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  8. Nice little volume spike just after you posted the portfolio change Gary.

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  9. I like that trade adjustment, traderlady.

    the 2x funds are no fun on the way down! :)

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  10. Alex, Wingman,

    Anyone can interpret PZG's fall up to -18%?

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  11. Thanks SB, you always give comfort:)

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  12. HR,

    Sweet. I'll take your word for it.

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  13. Poly,

    I'm thinking I'll probably just stick with deep in the money GLD and SLV calls. MAYBE a small lotto play with at the money or slightly out of the money calls, but that will depend on the depth of the correction and the price of the options at that time.

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  14. Gary,

    Can you give me an example of what you consider deep in the money? Are you looking at May or July exp.
    Lastly, I see July SLV call option with strike of $35 going for $6.10, It has over 33,000 in open interest(much more interest than most) would that be a good choice?
    Thanks;-)

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  15. As far as NUGT (2x XAU), it was a later addition for me and I lowered size accordingly, so won't need to trim there. I'll just ride through the pullback with that one and look to add near the cycle low.

    But I will definitely exit all NUGT (and any DGP if I buy some at the cycle low) near the top of the C-wave.

    As far as miners, and since Gary is handling the metals trade, I will look to trim just a bit (maybe 10%) into a late morning rally, also looking to put the funds back to work at the daily cycle low.

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  16. Gary,

    For those of us with money in IRAs that can't purchase options, what would you suggest?

    Thank you.

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  17. Poly,

    You know there's a chance we could all get fooled by the upcoming daily cycle low. Here on the blog (and other blogs) there's talk of it being a nasty correction that will shake a lot of folks out of their positions. But what if it's not that? What if instead it's just a sideways correction for a few days or even less, maybe something like the daily cycle low that was almost a non-event during the late summer/fall rally? We would all be waiting for the big move down and instead, the market just takes off to the upside.

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  18. Aries: PZG had some test results. That often results in wild swings, even if the news is good because people sell on the good news they've been waiting for.

    Here's a good link for single stock news; Just change the symbol in the url line:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=pzg

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  19. I agree with PC. I am not sure that we need a stiff shakeout here. We need to get to wildly bullish and metals sentiment is neutral (amazing!) If we drop sharply we reset the clock and have to build sentiment even more quickly to get to over--bullish. Mild dip and new rally would get us to buying frenzy sentiment quicker, so perhaps no stiff drop. Maybe a one-day down $30 on gold and then sideways for a few days.

    TZ, you out there with a thought on this? Gary, does this make sense?

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  20. Pima and DG,

    I think the odds are in favor of a giant shakeout. I actually was looking for silver between 40 and 43 before a giant shakeout. Looks like we are in the range. But I am actually waiting for another big up day to get things wildly bullish and to mark the top. Also volatility should increase as we get to the top of the C-wave. So it's too late in the IT cycle to have a sideways grind daily low. Just my thoughts.

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  21. Gold, /GC looks really bullish to me on the 4h. First test of the 20, we should at least get a test of the 1478 and 41.97 on silver...JMHO.

    I might reduce size there.

    2cents...

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  22. are we still looking for $usd 72?

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

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  23. Pima,

    I think if we were to get a sideways consolidation here for several days, it would be safe to buy back in. We either correct here soon or we consolidate and move higher again./jmo

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  24. Gary, why the decision to move over to calls and would you consider call in SIL too or just SLV?

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  25. Other than the one mild daily cycle last Sept every other daily cycle for the last year has been enough to shake traders out of positions. The odds are not in favor of a mild correction.

    I think we probably have to go down far enough to get all these option buyers to puke up their positions.

    $3-$6 in silver is my best guess.

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  26. Can anyone translate $38 into an approx. AGQ price? Does that make sense? Broker doesn't have contingent purchase based on silver index.

    Thank you

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  27. Elaine,
    Either do nothing or just trim a little off AGQ.

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  28. Mission,
    SLV only. The spreads are tight. SIL is too illiquid.

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  29. AG caught some support on the 10 DMA

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  30. Gary, I thought you were only expecting one more cycle here...wouldnt a shake out simply kill all possibility of the 1600/50 targets?

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  31. Gary, if you think there is gonna be a $3-6 shakeout in silver, why would you carry such a beefy (50%+) AGQ position?

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  32. Bruce,
    Because what if I'm wrong?

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  33. Aaron,
    Daily cycle corrections don't stop an advance, they enable it.

    We need to dampen sentiment a bit. Once we get a pullback the trend followers will pile in and create another strong floor and set up the final rocket launch.

    Go look at some of those final C-wave advances. 20-30% in the final leg isn't uncommon. What would 30% be from today's level?

    I'll give you a hint it's a lot higher than $1650

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  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  35. Francus,

    AGQ will be between $230-$233 at a spot silver price of $38.00. That's my best guess.

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  36. "Gary, if you think there is gonna be a $3-6 shakeout in silver, why would you carry such a beefy (50%+) AGQ position?"- Bruce

    We should keep in mind that Gary is also one of the more aggressive traders here.

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  37. just to talk numbers .. his count is expecting move like 185-162 now and higher high like 216 before move like 216-174 .. agq numbers...
    of course things do not repeate exactly same.

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  38. Gary,

    Where and how do you get you sentiment readings
    for gold and silver?

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  39. Yash,
    For the most part cycles are worthless for spotting tops. Trying to pick an exact price top with cycles is pure fantasy. One may get lucky but it won't have anything to do with cycles.

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  40. Greg,
    sentimentrader.com for the big picture. But right here on the blog for daily cycle estimates. The number of hits on the blog has soared to over 12,000 daily. Add to that all the talk about buying call options and it's pretty obvious a shakeout is coming soon.

    The fact that gold is moving into the middle of the timing band for a cycle low is also a clue.

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  41. Gary,

    I'm not leveraged and I'm in 100% right now. If I don't want to buy options at the next daily cycle, should I just hold my AGQ or reduce some risk and put it in SLV and then buy back into AGQ at the next daily cycle?

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  42. Regarding the daily pressures that Gary feel from us, I recall the following from Bloomberg, January 7, 2010:

    "The Adens' biggest goof was in 1983. Gold was at $680 and looking good for the long run. But then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker squashed inflation by raising interest rates. Gold sank to half its price and stayed down for 20 years. "We were new at this game," Mary Anne says. "We felt pressure from subscribers who wanted us to stay bullish. We learned a hard lesson: Never argue with reality."

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  43. What happens if I owned CGC? It was purchased by Gammon Gold (GRS) and delisted on Friday. Do I get GRS shares? Thanks.

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  44. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  45. Ryan,
    You could trim a little AGQ and then put it back on as close to the bottom as we can get.

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  46. Holding April calls in SLV during expiration week, particularly when a daily cycle high is expected anytime, or may already be in, leaves me like the cat on a hot tin roof.

    So far, though, I haven't seen anything that looks like an overbought situation in silver, although I acknowledge having no prior experience in things that trade 24/7. Perhaps my traditional measures of overbought/oversold won't work nor will my key reversal metrics.

    On Friday, most traders thought that the US government would be closed, and that probably accounted for some strength in metals and weakness in the dollar. Given that, today's action so far is encouraging for more upside in silver IMHO.

    Until proven wrong, I'll go with my traditional indicators for selling these options.

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  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  48. @Pima,

    "You know there's a chance we could all get fooled by the upcoming daily cycle low. Here on the blog (and other blogs) there's talk of it being a nasty correction that will shake a lot of folks out of their positions."

    Anything is possible and with regards to gold what you say above is VERY plausible, considering the moves to date. But look at that weekly Silver chart, the gains have been outrageous and it's near vertical, I just don't see how you get another fresh new parabolic daily cycle when you're already at those levels.

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  49. I also have lightened up, selling a few miners and a touch of AGQ. If SLV drops $6, then AGQ winds up at 190...too much for me. I will be back as buying into drops/panics is easy for me.

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  50. Ok I trimmed a little bit of AGQ. Any thoughts about the miners? I am thinking of trimming some SLW as well but it's down today and I would rather not sell on a down day.

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  51. Jack, I own (ed) CGC too. If you read any of the proxy voting material they sent you, CGC will get .5209 of a share of GRS for each share of CGC you had. PLUS, BONUS! $ 1.09 in cash per share of CGC you had.

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  52. DG

    i sold last night and of course it tested 42 right after, but wherever it goes ill be happy if i can get in at the swing at the cycle

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  53. Ryan, I agree with you and we got in later than others. I am going to see if there is a gap up tomorrow morning
    to shave a little.

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  54. DG, I read your book over vacation. Excellent advice throughout! I already recommended it to 2 friends.

    I know I mentioned it before, but I think you might enjoy a refresher on Epictetus; you and he seem to be approaching similar problems in similar ways - you might find something there you like.

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  55. I just have a question anyone can probably answer. If AGQ follows silver and silver follows gold, why has AGQ been increasing while Gold sits or moves very little lately?

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  56. traderlady and Ryan, I need to do the same, as SLW and SIL not doing anything except down.

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  57. Jeff: You don't want to get too light but you had said you were super loaded. If silver opens at $50 tomorrow you will (should!) be very happy. I cut some but am still there in size.

    CMT: Thanks for the kind words. I am glad the book was helpful. For the right reader (open and interested in changing himself for the better) it has been a life changer.

    Just FYI to whomever: My whole net worth is tradable. I won no real estate and nothing else to speak of so when I am 75% long, that's 75% of the whole enchilada (burrito?) I like cash and no fixed assets. moved to Italy for a year and a half because I felt like it. Flew back once in a while to do speaking, and then back to Italy. No kids, no debt, no house, wife of 35 years is my best friend. To each his own, I guess.

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  58. CMT: re Epictetus: Having studied him several times as a major in Philosophy, I won't read him again as it may re-initiate my recurring nightmare about being back in college again! ;-)

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  59. Silver pulling back. Looks to be a nice timely move Gary. Thank you.

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  60. I think SMTP has more influence than the main man thinks! ;)

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  61. I lightened up on AGQ for a number of reasons:

    Got a buy on the dollar/sell on euro Friday
    My stuff shows silver massively overbought
    Lost most of last night's rally in the futures by 9:30
    Gary's daily cycle bottom due
    Miners acting worse than metals all day

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  62. Looks like AG is going to fill that
    gap....

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  63. DG, Glad to see you back. You were missed. I finished up your book. Good read and excellent advice. I left it for my hubby to read and suggested to my son to read also. I usually hear the same thing from everyone, they have no time. ;)
    We'll see.

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  64. The last time silver had a down day, it was at 37! If we can get anywhere near that level, Id be a buyer.

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  65. At Ease: It''s funny what we do and don't "have time for," isn't it? Oh well...such is the nature of things.

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  66. I'm looking forward to a couple of down days to top off with the cash from Friday's sells that I made.
    Did I just say that I was looking forward to a drop? Looks like I did... Weird!

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  67. Wow looks like we might get quite the intraday reversal....congrats to everyone who shed some shares alongside Gary this morning.

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  68. To fellow Canucks; I'm with RBC, it doesn't allow 5 cent increases in options over 1$, and no penny increases below 1$.
    Sometimes that 5 cent gap is where I want to be, any other platforms that allow that?

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  69. MrMiyagi,

    I am Canadian too. This might be an ignorant question, but when trading options in Canada are we trading Canadian options in Canadian dollars?

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  70. at ease,

    I too have wondered about all the SMT followers and the effect we have the market. But here's something to consider. If the SMT subs are following Gary's portfolio, then they have a lot of money in AGQ, but NONE in silver futures. (Some do trade the futures, but they seem to be in the minority.)

    It's the silver futures price that moves AGQ and even SLV. So if Gary's subs are selling only AGQ, that would not impact the futures (or spot) price at all, right?

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  71. So true DG. What's a priority for one, is not a priority for all.

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  72. Trust me the number of people following the SMT is insignificant. we aren't having any effect on the precious metal markets.

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  73. Pima,
    I don't trade futures, so didn't realize what affected AGQ. Thanks for sharing that with me. That makes sense now. :)

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  74. Rob L.
    Depends; if you buy a US security, then it's the US options, Canadian options if it's the Canadian security.
    I've never bought a Canadian option, the volume is as slow as motor oil in the winter.

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  75. I disagree Gary. It only take a group of hefty hitters in the futures market to turn a thinly traded market, like silver.

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  76. I just bought EUO at 17.17 for a trade (short euro ETF). Dollar bounce and gold sell-off ought to occur simultaneously.

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  77. Ahhh, but we are only a small number on this blog who converse daily. How many out there (like those who steal your work) and pass it off as their own or others who share with who knows who up the food chain driven by your blog site? Hmmmm, just makes you wonder. Like a pebble tossed in the water, how far out do the ripples go?

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  78. Aaron,

    But what we are trading is not thinly traded.


    Average volume on SLV is 28 million shares daily.

    Average volume on AGQ is 1.2 million.

    Average volume on SLW is 14 million.

    Those are the main instruments that are being traded here and none of those is a thinly traded market.

    OTOH silver futures average volume is somewhere around 60,000 contracts. That is a much thinner market than the above etf's and SLW, it's true. But how many of Gary's subs are trading in the silver futures markets?

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  80. Thanks, Gary. I have sold all my AGQ @265. Looking forward to buy them back later.

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  81. Guess we weren't going to 1500 on this daily cycle? I was hoping to see that before we got a reversal.

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  82. Sophia: I am close to a buy on OIH (one more sharp down day or two ought to do it). I will post when I cover and you might lighten up or sell out DUG then. It can always go lower but once I get the buy it shows we are super stretched to the downside.

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  83. good point, at ease.

    We really don't know the total effect this blog has. Even if the number of SMT subs is "small" as Gary says, how many of those have very LARGE accounts? A few dozen subs with multi-million dollar account sizes could push thing around a bit, eh?

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  84. MrMiyagi,

    Thanks.

    SO I guess you trade in a U.S margin account at RBC?

    Is it frustrating going back and forth between currencies and exchanges? And are there any headaches with regards to taxes? And do you have to deal with the IRS or just Revenue Canada?

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  85. silverhound: There are all types here and some people are seriously leveraged. Virtually no day-traders I am aware of and Gary does very little portfolio changing---just a trim here and there sometimes.

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  86. Prior to today, I though the plan was to sit tight.

    What changed? I read the report but don't remember a specific mention of the reasoning. Do I need to read it again?

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  87. Pima, the price of AGQ and SLV and the like are all supposed to mimic the moves of futures. So the volume isnt as relevant as one may think.
    We just need 10 (good sized) members selling silver at market (futures) and the thing gets killed.
    Sad but true.

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  88. DG

    I know mate, just having a friendly jab :-)

    Just a bunch of regular people trying to make the most of an opportunity.

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  89. I know there is one sub with 14M worth of AGQ.

    Not sure on those bigger ticket items how much sway we have, but on something like AG that gets talked about a lot...You kind of wonder how much we might move a small market like that one.

    I lightened up my AGQ position too...Really don't like doing it and hope this is just a quick test of the 10DMA

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  90. Angry,
    I just want to convert a little AGQ to SLV options is the only reason I made any change.

    If one isn't going to do something similar they could just sit tight.

    BTW I expect todays little pullback is a fakeout and not the cycle top.

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  91. I'm with Angry Hippie...thought we were going to sit through this daily cycle.

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  92. Rob;
    I have a margin account that has US and Canadian capabilities.
    You can transfer money into the US side and leave it there until you withdraw in either US$ or transfer to C$.
    Tax wise, you have to fill out a form and give it to the brokerage so that you don't get the IRS on your back. You just pay Canadian tax, calculation is based on the exchange rate of the selling date.

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  93. Gold would need to break 1465 tomorrow and we would have a swing in place.

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  94. The thing I hate about SVM is it sells off like it went up like AG or EXK. Meaning, the degree of it's sell offs doesn't jibe with the degree of it's rise.

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  95. Thanks Gary, that is good to hear. I appreciate the fake outs. ;)

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  96. Gary,

    Thanks for your thoughts on the fakeout top today. That's what I was thinking as well.

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  97. MrMiyagi,

    Thanks again. Your help is greatly appreciated.

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  98. Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't the 60,000 silver futures contracts represent 300,000,000 oz of silver and each slv share is 1 oz of silver?
    Seems the volume in the futures market is pretty significant in that light.

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  99. Thanks DG! I would appreciate and promise a nice enchiladas when you go back to Italy! ( it is closer from Chamonix or London!!)

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  100. Thanks Gary. Following this bull has provided quite a lesson in human nature in addition to finance.

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  101. Rob,
    You're welcome.
    The form is the W-8BEN (for Bernanke?).
    75% of my transactions are US based as the Canadian market is sometimes too thin.

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  102. Jeez, sometimes its like playing Telephone on this forum. Gary makes a position adjustment in the morning and by the afternoon people are completely closed out of positions. Cool heads people. :)

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  103. I doubt all of the SMT followers even come close to one or two big hedge funds and there are literally 8000-10000 hedge funds. Not to mention all the big banks.

    Folks the SMT is an after thought in this market.

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  104. MrMiyagi,

    I'm also a Canadian and I didn't even know we had to fill out another form for the IRS. What is the W-8BEN for? For my US stocks, I just reported it on my income tax and used the exchange at buy and sell date.

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  105. Ryan;
    I'm surprised that your brokerage hasn't sent you the forms, or maybe you filled it out amongst the other ones.
    In any case, the forms is needed so that you get tax-exempt from the US by paying taxes in Canada.
    Call your brokerage and see if they need it, RBC sent these forms to me automatically a couple of years back. Before that it didn't bother, I don't know when this came into effect.

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  106. traderlady and at ease,

    I with both of you. I'm going to only trim my SLW that I added 2 weeks ago. I'm not going to do anything today. If Gary's right then hopefully it's a fakeout and we can lighten up when we get a pop.

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  107. Ryan,
    I haven't been real thrilled with SIL or SLW, but it may be because we came in later than the rest of SMTP subs. So will trim back my SLW that I recently added also once we get a pop up.

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  108. MrMiyagi and Rob L., I too only trade US options as Canadian volume is just not there. I keep those funds in USD and do not transfer between the accounts.

    RBC probably has the worst trading platform as far as the big banks go. BMO is my favourite. TD is not bad (keep hoping they will get the TOS platform as per TD Ameritrade). I will likely move my RBC account to Questrade during the D wave.

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  109. MrMiyagi,

    I trade mostly via TD and you might be right, perhaps I already filled out a form when I opened up my account. Thanks I'll call them and ask.

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  110. At Ease,

    I am not too thrilled with SLW either. I will get rid of my SLW and convert them to DIM SLV calls. I'm going with TZ's all metal approach.

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  111. Gary,

    Just curious why you think today's pullback is a fakeout and not the cycle top? What makes you think that? Keep up the good work:-)

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  112. Gary,

    So you do not believe Friday/today was the daily cycle top? If not, how much higher do you expect this to go before we correct?

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  113. Dan,

    Gary EXPECTS a gap up over 1500 before this cycle tops...

    And then again, we all know that this is no exact science

    we need to be prepared under any case as we are in the timing for a cycle low

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  114. anyway Gary, I want to have the same thing as you for breakfast!! I don't know how you do it each time, but it is pretty amazing! Come on, tell us, are you working in fact at an enormous hdge fund and they hired you as a guru?
    Amazing!! Thanks for sharing your knowledge!

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  115. also...one other thing

    the last cycle ran for 31 days, which is more than the average for a cycle

    so we could expect a shorter cycle this time around

    Gary, please correct me if I'm wrong

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  116. Nike

    "Gary EXPECTS a gap up over 1500 before this cycle tops... "

    "This cycle" means Daily cycle or C wave cycle?

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  117. Jayhawk

    I'd like to post a chart and I notice you are posting yours as a clickable link rather than a copy and paste text. Can I ask how you are doing this?

    Thanks

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  118. if we have not seen the daily top yet and if AGQ drops much more, its tempting to buy a bit back here.

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  120. All the call options guys are getting kinda quiet
    :-)

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  121. Sold all my SLW this morning as it is just not keeping up with AGQ. It's now below it's early March peak and AGQ is way above it's peak from then. I will probably not be back to it and do nothing but AGQ for the last leg.

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  122. TZ-

    That's because most of us sold last week. :) I don't like holding options late into the daily cycle.

    SLW getting spanked extra hard.

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  124. I sold all my calls last week as well.

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  125. Zowee mama!
    I'd hate to be caught at the top of a D-wave.

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  126. Ryan, I have TD also, I like Strategy
    Desk, keep it simple.

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  127. sold all my calls this morning. Even my June calls.
    But I did buy some GC this morning....thats a bit uncomfortable right now :)

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  128. Wheee look at silver slide....

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  129. No change in position for weeks (since approx japan crash week).

    5.5-6x leverage still in futures (varies as we go up and down as a normal mathematical result)

    Intend to increase silver position by 25-33% upon bottom of this pullback.

    Stops near japan crash lows.

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  130. Anybody see this?

    http://www.benzinga.com/commodities/11/04/994649/slv-sees-massive-bearish-options-trade-despite-silvers-rise

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  131. I suspect a margin hike in silver is very likely this week.

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  132. Sophia: I covered my OIH. I have NOT gotten the buy, but if I do I may go long it. I am so close to the buy that I thought I may as well cover as my possible additional gain on the short is minimal. Was a nice trade as i assume your DUG has been. I will post if i get the buy signal on it.

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  133. TZ: BTW that was a great call last week ("flat Thursday and spike up Friday"). Let me know the next time you know exactly what's going to happen ;-)

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  134. I also dumped my May calls last week. At this point I have June 130 calls on GLD and July 25 calls on SLV.

    Kinda wishing I'd sold the June GLD's, but they are moving almost one to one with the shares because they are so deep in the money, so I plan to just ride them thru the correction. Lost of time left till June expiration.

    Right now GLD is down 1.14, the june calls are down 1.12.

    SLV is down .64, the July calls are down .57

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  135. For once the tinkering seems to be paying off.

    Sold slw June 40 calls and nearly all my AGQ this morning at $267 then bought back 1/2 at $260.

    Am currently 65% percent invested, down from 140%, and instead of the 7% drawdown I would have experienced, am currently down .34%. (written with silver at $40.23)

    If we pop up from here, I'll only gain 3.5% per silver pt, versus 8.5%, but I don't care as I decided for me it was more important to protect gains to date. If the correction is shallow, I'll happily chase.

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  136. TZ,

    Nice job on your silver futures position! And as DG said, great call for Friday to be an up day. (I made use of that :-)

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  137. Silvers down almost a buck, am actually tempted to buy back in here after selling this morning.

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  138. There is no buying to be don, IMO. The cycle has obviously topped, just need to wait out the process from top down to the cycle low.

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  139. Wow, SLW is really taking a beating.

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  140. Can we expect nice snap backs on EXK, AG, NUGT or do these juniors tend to underperform once such big gains are give back? (They are juniors, right?)

    Tempting to put some money in them after the low.

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  141. Perhaps buying will come in near the close. Good-bye bucks see you again soon, hopefully. lol

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  142. Patience guys. If you sold some this morning wait at least a little while for the cycle to play out. A four hour daily cycle is a tad on the short side, no? Even the short ones muck around at the bottom for a day or two. It's hard to change sentiment so quickly regardless of price as time is also a factor in psychology.

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  143. Contrary to Gary's view, I believe this is the cycle top...of course he wrote that a couple hours ago, and the selling has picked up. But who knows, the gold bull is a vicious beast and will buck and snort in either direction. Perhaps tomorrow we get a big up day, sucker in more buyers and then top.

    If I'm right, and cycle top is in, I didn't get my spike to sell into, so I will be holding my positions into the cycle low.

    If I'm wrong, and we get a spike yet, I will be selling 1/4 of positions as stated yesterday, and will buy back if we correct prior to a parabolic move.

    Being conservative, I tend to leg out of positions when things get hot.

    F

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  144. I don't have any options, but I am currently 100% invested in AGQ, SLW and a small basked of silver miners. Should I take some off the table now, or do you still think this is a "fake top?"

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  145. I suspect this was not the top as I lightened up at 8:44 this morning. I never get that lucky.

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  146. Well so much for selling the SLW that I added a couple of weeks ago. It's pretty much BE for me on those buys so I guess I might as well hold now and see how the daily cycle plays out.

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  147. anybody trimming more before the close?

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  148. DG,

    my broker is gone for the day, so I hope to have a way to sell nicely tomorrow...it was indeed a nice trade...:-)

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  149. Haggerty, not selling anything else. was/am planning to buy more AGQ on every cross of xx5. It's getting pretty close to 245 though and I'm not really ready to pull the trigger.

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  150. sophia
    Youuse a broker instead of self-administering? Doesn't that jack up the commissions?

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  151. CNBC saying that selloff triggered by Goldman Sachs selling its Commodities fund ( I guess you all know that, but I was giving the bath to my kids and just switched on the TV...)

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  152. I sold the majority of my options (giving me some cash for the next leg up), but hedged my SLW and SLV calls by selling calls against my positions early this morning. This offset some of the losses and I still have my positions in case of a fakeout.

    As for my other positions, I am mostly holding old turkey until the D wave comes.

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  153. I followed gary this morning, took about 15% off the table. Not ready to pull trigger on more just yet. If we get a decent bounce I might trim more tomorrow. I fear there will be a big selloff at the close and if we do I will just hold

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  154. Miyagi-sensei,

    I use Saxobank for my future but for stocks I have to use a broker ( compliance issues)

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  155. Gary,

    Great call this morning. It has already saved me a pretty penny, and I have plenty of dry powder to deploy when you call the daily cycle bottom.

    Lurkers: give this man your business.

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  156. Seems the top buyers/late leverage people are tossing their lunch. The skeptic in me see gold only down ~11.

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  157. Sophia: "Your broker is gone?!!" Where do you trade? If you are using a full service broker you are getting HOSED. You really ought to be trading online. Please tell me what you are doing so I can talk you out of it! Also, even with a regular broker anyone else in the office can place a trade for you. I hope you are not holding to make a little extra and then if oil rockets up tomorrow you can think "It was my broker's fault." That's a variation on "If it goes up I''m a genius; If it goes down my broker is an idiot."

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  158. Anyone who is serious about making money ought to be a subscriber. Period. The blog alone is good but doesn't really do it. If you can't save the membership fee you are investing less than $4.23, and in that case your reluctance is understood.

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  159. Gary,

    Do you still think today is a head-fake or is it the beginning of the start of the daily low?

    Thx.

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  160. Oh no DG, I trade out of Europe and my broker/ private banker leaves at 6PM, so believe me, I wish he was still there NOW!!
    I didn't want to leave an order tonight out of the blue because as you know this market is volatile so I have to be there to decide...
    Let's hope this OIl stuff is not going to squeeze back tomorrow morning!!

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  161. Too late to take profits, too early to add, IMO. I'll look to buy more into weakness tomorrow (or more likely Wednesday) if we get it.

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  162. FWIW. Drop In Silver Attributed To $1 Million 37% Downside Bet On SLV

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/drop-silver-attributed-1-million-37-downside-bet-slv

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  163. WIngman, nice move! I did the same. It's nice when Opex for April is here this week as it offers some convenience to sell April options agains back month dated core holdings and thus mitigate some of the losses today.

    Of course it has to be done prudently so you don't wind up having a huge liability if we get a pop later this week!

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  164. IMO, a top is well and truly in. No surprises of courses, just time to take full advantage of it.

    "My interpretation" of the cycles is Gold is now on Day 19 of an expected 20 to 28 day range. Even during bullish cycles, the process from top to the cycle low (cycle end) takes around 5 days to complete. If today was the top and you allowed 5 days, that would make this a 24 day cycle, smack in the middle of the expected range.

    Considering the last cycle was stretched and Gary often says short cycles are follow stretched cycles, we should accept the move to a cycle low has begun, it carries a very high probability.

    This cycle was a big one! Silver was up some 22% in 19 days and is currently 20% above just it's 50dma and some 60% above its 200dma.

    Look at the volume on SLV today. Go look! SLV volume is 74 million and counting. Nothing comes close to this in 2011! The last time numbers this high were posted were Nov 9th and Dec 7th, both were peaks/tops.

    Judging by past experiences, like for example the last cycle Jan 25th-Mar15th, that cycle dropped 8.4%. Realistically, a drop to $38 might not be the bottom, but a good point to add with minimal downside.

    So I'm sitting tight with a lot of cash and will let the blood spill a little. Hopefully the low will come by Friday, I'm out on a family vacation next week and would love to go shopping before the trip, doubt my wife will appreciate cycle low trading :)

    Anyway, just some random thoughts, sorry if they are repetitive.

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  165. "CNBC saying that selloff triggered by Goldman Sachs selling its Commodities fund"

    There is "always" a reason/excuse for buying/selling to explain a cycle turning point.

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  166. Sophia: Whew! That's better. Still you should have online access to your account so long as the NYSE is open.

    Poly: Agrees with my thinking as well. I have a lot of cash now. Bummer about the trip's timing. Hopefully we end this dip Friday.

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  167. GPL

    Gap filled, lighter volume...Break out over downtrend line retested.


    I hope :)

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  168. going away on Saturday as well, so I am like Poly, wouldn't mind loading a bit if we drop 3$-6$

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  169. Poly, SB, DG, Always appreciate your thoughts. No Alex today, maybe tonight. Look forward to Gary;s night report.

    Hang in everyone!

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  170. sorry Poly, I was trying to give some news to people on the blog who might not have access to info

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  171. Poly,
    Thanks for the wrap up. Very well done!!

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  172. In DeMark land, we didn't exceed the DXY low at 74.84 that I saw on Friday, using MarketWatch DXY. One more chance tomorrow to perfect the DAILY buy setup of 1-4 days, starting Wednesday. Setup will still record, but perfection gives full exhaustion. 74.90 DXY was the DAILY exhaustion for a DeMark Wave 5, so short term exhaustion in Dollar selling here.
    On Minyanville, where I frequent and began to read Gary (aka Toby), they've quickly switched to bearish silver. Did you all see that bearish put transaction in SLV - 95000 contracts at July 25 for .10 each - $1 million trade already up $400 K - but you live by the leverage sword, die by the leverage sword, eh? I'm not going to even entertain a trade like that until DXY 72.5.

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  173. Not repetitive, Poly, and very much appreciated--thank you!

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  174. Was tempted to add today but waited it out.
    As I said earlier, based on a day like today where it's not the C-wave top, I'd hate to be at the top when the D-wave kicks in.
    A dollar down on silver today, can you imagine the panic selling that would avalanche with silver around 50-53$ and then a 5-7% decline?
    Was tempted to add but held off. Will wait near the cycle lows.

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  175. Poly,

    $38 silver would be mighty tasty for those of us who actually buy pullbacks.

    Nice analysis.

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  176. TRADERLADY

    you re funny :) I read 3 posts from you and all of them made me laugh or smile ( especially waving goodbye to your dollars at your 12:16 p.m. post :)

    I like the picture, reminds me of my vacation, but I imagine thats Sarasota?? I shall look for that tree in July !

    F.W.I.W. anyone...

    Sold 1/2 my SHZ ( and no thats not slang, its a stock ticker)

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  177. I was hoping I would find the meaning of life when silver hit $42.

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  178. Poly:
    Thanks for your analysis. I followed Gary's lead this morn, although bumped just a bit more than his % of agq...thought about closing all the slv/slw calls, but just couldn't do more than a few. I closed the zsl puts and went into zsl calls (looks like I could have waited just a bit to do that).
    Follow through tomorrow?

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  179. TZ,

    It seems to me that you are the one strangely silent about your "no options" crusade.

    Yesterday you asked the percent exposure everyone had in options before you made your big point.

    We answered.

    You haven't.

    Change your mind about options ?

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  180. Like I said if used properly options are great tools to control risk and increase ones return on invested capital.

    TZ is playing leverage. When used to leverage up options are a great tool to turn ones account into dust.

    In TZ'z leverage world options are evil. In the hands of someone that knows how to use them properly options are amazing investment vehicles.

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  181. Alex, I TRY to keep things light,makes life more pleasant. Tree was my walk on Casey Key. A walk I think I mentioned to you back along for you trip. I shall show you the benefit for that walk. See pic.

    Do these Jr's usually correct really
    violent?

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  182. Poly,

    You may be right about the top being in, but it seems strange that we never got to an overbought signal in silver.

    Now, last night's top in silver futures may have produced such a reading had it occurred during NY trading. I'll try to figure that out so I can use it next time if it happens to work.

    I shorted enough SLV common to just exercise the April options I have to cover, but if we rally, I still have the option of covering the short.

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  183. WES,

    What indicators are you looking at for overbought?

    I'm not a big technical guy so I'm just looking at plain vanilla stuff, like the % above 50dma, the rise out of long established channels, RSI (at 84, yes can be meaningless), big volume on big down day and very favorable cycle count. Not sure about sentiment numbers, looks like Sentiment trader .com has SIlver in the very bearish area, but that's been the case since late last year :)

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  184. The peak of silver's move last night came to about $41.80-$41.90, which should have produced approximately a $40.85 print for SLV.

    This is still not close to an overbought reading. Maybe we top without getting overbought.

    Gary always said the PM complex was full of curve balls.

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  185. Shalom,
    Don't you ever run out of dry powder? All I hear from you is "buying".

    You not printing money in your basement are you?

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  186. For those who like Peter Schiff:

    Today on his radio show he interviewed Marc Faber. You can download the entire show for free today at SchiffRadio.com.

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  187. Poly-

    Yes, 75M volume on SLV---Huge selling day.

    Amazing to see that Nov 9th day of 148M on SLV. Looks like the bottom was in about 5 days after that sell off. We are still way above even the 10 MA on SLV. Buckle up.

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  188. Poly,

    I have charts that I "fit" to each security in order to determine overbought/oversold conditions.

    Normally, reversals occur when the stock opens high. Of course volume measures only give "historical" rather than real time signals as the volume is always minimal near the open.

    So, on the basis of opening high and closing low, today fits the bill as well.

    I really don't care too much now, as the only uncovered April position I have left is the 100 SLV 40 calls, which baring a real rally, are chump change either way.

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  189. Gary (or anyone else),

    If I just sell my AGQ when we think the D wave is coming I will get hit with a 35% tax. I would really like to get long-term capital gain treatment (15%) on my AGQ shares. Additionally I may be moving anyway to a state that has no income tax which would save me another 8.5% so in my case the savings are huge - 28.5% of my gain. I could, of course, short twice the dollar amount in SLV. Perhaps I would need to short more than twice the amount because we think AGQ will outperform on the downside (D wave). What do people think about this strategy. I would need to hold onto the shares until 2013 but I have no problem with that.

    Thoughts?

    Thanks!

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  190. TRADERLADY

    I love the looks of that place! It is calling me for lunch or beer or whatever they serve there!! VERY NICE!

    As for the juniors, some of them (though we expected a pullback ) are disappointing to see that volume off the top.

    In my experience, High volume off the top means a larger correction ( not to 10 or 20 sma , like under normal conditions with some sideways movement...its more painful). And actually, Gary has been saying he thinks it'll hurt.

    I have NO leverage at all,thankfully.

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