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Friday, April 8, 2011

STOCK MARKET COIL

The S&P is currently forming a volatility coil. I've noted in the past that the initial move out of a coil tends to be a false move that is quickly reversed and followed by a more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction.

The assumption is that the coil will break to the downside early next week as earnings season begins. Stocks are now in the timing band for a half cycle low which also lends credence to the downside theory. 

Usually the initial move only lasts 2-4 days. So I expect by the end of next week we will see the market start to reverse. Stocks should then enter a powerful uptrend for another 5-7 weeks.

This should push sentiment to levels consistent with bull market tops. By this time oil will have spiked high enough to poison the economy.  I expect by early June will start to see signs that that the economy is rolling over again.

Bernanke in his infinite wisdom will have made the same mistake he did in `08. In the effort to print prosperity all he will have done is spike inflation and collapse the economy again.

My expectation is for the current intermediate cycle to play out as a left translated cycle (top in less than 11 weeks). I think a tag of the upper trend line of the megaphone topping pattern we've been watching for the last year would be a reasonable level to establish short positions in preparation for the next leg down in the ongoing secular bear market.

 One caveat: I would not trade a break higher by shorting, expecting a reversal back down. It's too early in the daily and intermediate cycle to expect a prolonged correction in stocks. If the coil breaks up then I would assume that this will be one of those 30% that the initial move is the correct move.

550 comments:

  1. Gary,
    If some big guns (GOOG, AAPL etc) report below expected earnings, how much of an effect would that have overall?

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  2. Gary,

    last time brent oil was it this level we were one month short of an economic collapse.
    does this interfere with a boom in stocks?

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  3. nitro....you didn't sell your silver at 34 and change on the call of an anonymous poster who talks in the third person?

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  4. I had 300 bucks left over in my Vanguard account so I've been playing riverboat gambler with options on that thing this year. Up 1100% so far. :^O Using SLV and SLW front month, slightly out of the $.



    Gary-

    What if 50 on silver gets hit way before the timing band for an intermediate top? I'm thinking upper 50's or maybe even 60 will get hit at this rate.

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  5. FL,

    I agree with your previous post...

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  6. Jay,
    If silver hits 50 I'm out and I could care less if it continues to 60.

    At $50 silver will be stretched almost 100% above the 200 DMA. The first down day could see silver lose 20% of it's value in that kind of stretched conditions.

    Go back and look at what happened to the coal stocks in 08 when the parabola broke.

    One can't take a chance on getting caught in that.

    I can tell you right now I'm going to be early getting out and I'm going to be early on purpose.

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  7. I'm likely leaving some on the table in this daily cycle, but I know we are close enough, so I just closed what I considered my extra SLV leverage and can sleep with the gains again.
    The only positions that were "above desired leverage" were closed, they were always intended to be closed near this daily cycle high. i would never be naked here, still have my core leveraged holding for the duration of this C.

    That leaves plenty of powder to get a little speculative and crazy in the next 10 days, when we find a cycle bottom.

    Look forward to talking "strategy" with the group and hearing some ideas on taking creative positions to really take advantage of a blowout C Wave finale.

    I'm signing out for the weekend, have a good weekend all.

    Cheers Gary, you're one of a kind.

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  8. Interesting SIL is heating up. Outperforming SLW,SVM,AG,AXU and neck and neck with AGQ

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  9. Wow, how'd I get so lucky as to have a friend send me here after two years of just holding SLV and praying? Amazing stuff here, how does one get this good at this as to make it look simple - and then be willing to share it? This advice is gold...er, silver! Thanks a million, really.

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  10. Was it Alex who made the SHZ call? I bought a small amount just because I was swimming in cash yesterday and the chart looked nice. WOW!

    I'm going to start paying attention to those recommendations.

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  11. That was Alex and looking at how SHZ behaved in DEC that could be a nice ride.

    It's a Chinese mining stock, but not a silver or gold miner for the others looking at the stock.

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  12. CMT, good for you getting in on SHZ.
    I'm thinking of selling GPL here, any thoughts anyone?

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  13. Gary, Do you place a trade trigger to get out near the top in case that # is brief?? Thx, K

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  14. No that one is just a seat of the pants thing.

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  15. Bosco, sorry I've been away from the computer until now. I seem to remember showing TDAmeritrade the following competitor's margin rates: ETrade and Scottrade. At the time, I had not looked at IB's rates, which are WAY lower. I will be contacting TDAmeritrade again with IB's rates AFTER this C-wave peaks. Too much going on in the markets to switch brokers right now...

    Jennifer - you're an architect? That explains the unemployment :( I have several architects in the family and one of them has been unemployed for 3 years now and another has pretty slow business. Tough market and I think it will stay that way for some time to come.

    at Ease - your dad lives in Mukilteo?? That's where I live and work! Small world :)

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  16. This sh!t is becoming surreal

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  17. i dont understand why people are leaving when there is still 4 hours left in the day. There is still room for some upside.

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  18. GPL in a triangle type pattern...2 hour chart looks like it broke out of it.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/c28f3174-542f-445f-9fcd-446d0e2159bf

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  19. Whoops...that was my other email address.

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  20. My degree 1 40.54 pivot was broken, silver going to 40.82 now.

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  21. It's up almost 100% in less than a month. I wouldn't get my hopes up for too much more out of that one.

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  22. What do you do if you own AG?

    Will it go higher after the next cycle low or is it done for the year?

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  23. Gary, it looks to me that at around 261'ish on AGQ we'll reach a level above the 20dma that roughly corresponds to the previous peaks over the past year. I'm thinking of lightening up there and then lightening up further we if gap higher next week as you outlined. Am I selling too early do you think at the ~261 area?

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  24. Mr Miyagi,why sell GPL,do u know something we don't? Looks great to me!

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  25. I think you are making a mistake looking at AGQ. AGQ will follow silver and silver will follow gold.

    If you are heavily leveraged you might consider selling some of your positions if gold can rise above $1500 next week and then re-enter at the next daily cycle low.

    But that is the only scenario I would use to trim. Anything else and I would just sit still. And I would only advise trimming a little leverage not your entire position.

    You see what happened to the people that jumped the gun yesterday. I suspect most panicked back in today. So all they accomplished was to miss a nice chunk of the move.

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  26. SB has it right - the best days are when the general market is flat to down and PMs are soaring. Money if flowing into the only hot sector arround.

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  27. I just put a condition on to trigger a sell trade on AG if she jumps.

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  28. discreet s....
    No, I don't know anything you don't, I've made a few bucks on it and it didn't jump as I was hoping. I'm probably wrong but I'm looking for something else next week.

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  29. Miyagi,

    Alex commented on GPL in last post. His call was to watch for a close above 4.25... personally I got out of it a few days ago and am sticking to Gary's more concrete plan.

    I think i'm going to use those funds to add to AGQ if we get a draw down next week.

    Although, I may be tempted to get a lottery buy if there is one :)

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  30. there is no way to pick a top on this. It is running through fibo lines and trendlines like they were not even there.

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  31. Hi Gary,

    I've never seen so many people on this board sooo eager to sell before the cycle top..

    Any chance that this becomes a really stretched daily cycle making people chase all the way to the top?

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  32. GS troll,
    Please understand that what I sold today was:
    1) April SLV 40 calls. Timeline is short and any drop would have wiped profits.
    2) GPL shares. Made a profit and satisfied.
    NONE of my core holdings are touched. A lot of stock and a lot more very very deep in the money calls on SLV, SLW, GLD, ABX.
    I also have a handful of DIS and LVS puts.

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  33. If I sell AG(sm position) I will add onto something else next week. Go
    silver!

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  34. Thanks Gary, that's about what I thought--and was hoping--to hear. I'm very leveraged right now and reducing that will make for a more enjoyable weekend.

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  35. I don't typically watch 1 minute tickers all day (between jobs at the moment) and it's like watching a movie.

    Today's action is incredible.

    Is it normal (question for skilled traders watching PM's for quite some time) to see such a powerful, slow and steady climb when price is at 52 week or all time high (taking out the 1980 event)?

    As soon as the steam engine slows, the engineer is hucking in loads and loads of coal.

    4 hours to go (long way). It would be sweet to close at or near the highs for the day. Take out 41?

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  36. BTW - Is there a "level 2 quotes" site for future contracts?

    I know the one for listed securities, but don't know if there is one for silver futures....

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  37. Closing April GLD 140's in strength. Don't see any value in carrying them with just a week left.

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  38. I wonder how leveraged people on the board are. One of Gary's most salient message is that excessive leverage will keep people from enjoying the bull via profits as small tics against their accts will cause them to sell, then buy back higher etc...

    Yes, I know there are a couple folks here who have appropriate risk avoidance measures in place, but man, just sitting and riding is such a joy.

    I don't know. Am I the only one here who believes that moderation puts one in position to reap great rewards. By moderation, I mean always leaving a little off the table. An offering to the market Gods so to speak.

    Just rambling...lurking more than usual as I'm enjoying the move today.

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  39. This is insane,
    Is there more room to run Monday?

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  40. fubsy
    I hear what you are saying, I have trimmed back today, taking profits and back to recommended core positions (and my June 25 Calls in GLD) and now have some powder for the daily cycle down. Less is more. :)

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  41. XRA looks promising for all you penny stock junkies...

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  42. The politicians are all grandstanding. Fed/DOD has alredy been furloughed and told not to show up to work on Monday.

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  43. It is official. One of my retirement accounts holding AGQ, bought at January IT low is up 100 %. Other accounts are close behind. I am currently invested 100 %, no leverage.

    Thanks Gary. You are amazing:)

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  44. Poly,

    Last daily cycle first top was on day 22, second and slightly higher top was on day 25.

    By my count we're on day 18 of the current cycle. So we could run for another 4 to 7 days, no?

    Are you thinking that because the last cycle was slightly stretched, this one might be shorter?

    In 3 to 4 days, gold could hit 1500. That round number seems like a good place for a pullback and we'd still be in the normal timing band for a daily cycle top.

    Good luck on your reload! I have some dry powder also that I want to put to work, so hopefully we can do that near the upcoming daily cycle low.

    The only fly in the ointment (that makes me nervous) is could it be possible that we top out on this daily cycle? Maybe it run long again and we don't top for another 7 or 8 days, then down into the daily cycle low, then a very LT daily cycle that may take us back to the highs for a double top and then tankage from there.

    So I guess our fallback position would be to have stops at the next daily cycle low just in case the D wave does begin sooner than expected.

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  45. I am looking at the next level for the Dollar .. 74.23$ .. probably a good area for a bounce ... probably a # we can attain in the next 4 days.

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  46. jeez, Sandy. That's awesome. Congrats!

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  47. Mr. M,I think GPL is just consolidating here.If you want something thats jumping keep an eye on wildcat silver WS.V ;-)

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  48. This is the second test of the 75 level for the USD, I guess 75.01 will have to do for today. Next week we break it for sure though.

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  49. My thoughts on AG are it will be more than fine from here. It has garnered a lot of attention on the NYSE showing up on largest volume increases and largest percentage gainers in the days/weeks leading up to this brief rest. It's now on everyone's radar and will be heavily accumulated during the next, euphoric leg up by those who feel they missed it on this previous runup. It's a great company that will be a strong participant in any upward move in silver.

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  50. Pima,

    I'm still in with my big core.

    But yes I probably closed a little early this time, but with a weekend ahead and a nice pop today, I'm happy to bank.

    You're right, $1,500 seems logical and 2 more strong days ahead is more likely than a top right here.

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  51. I sold most of my AG earlier in the week and moved it into EXK and MVG. This has worked out well.


    I think AG will have a tough time getting past that big red bar on the 3 mos daily (but there are better traders than me on here). That it is down today is pretty telling if you ask me.

    I also pulled out of GPL and moved that into Revett which hasn't been as successful but this one should move nicely once it gets onto the AMEX.

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  52. Poly,

    Thanks!

    You have any thoughts/concerns that the C wave could be topping THIS daily cycle?

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  53. I wouldn't worry about the C-wave topping during this cycle. Although it will probably seem like it when gold drops into the next daily cycle low. Remember action and reaction.

    This cycle is stretching quite far above the 10 DMA. The correction needs to be scary enough to cause all the late comers to sell at the bottom.

    Then the true parabolic move can begin.

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  54. fubsy_cooter this is good advice and bears repeating: "I manage my Dad's retirement accts, and from my experience, conservatism is best. Why? Losing your Dad's money will feel worse than losing your own. I would go smaller than you think you should, especially near the top of a cycle. If I think I should put 25% to work, then I put 12% to work. i add with small increments. I calculate my stops and potential losses, and what I would be willing to lose and work from there.

    IMO a smidge here, a smidge more when you think the cycle bottom is near, and more at a break out from this cycle's top. Then, selling near the top of the C-wave (hopefully), and taking advantage of the D-Wave by being short assets that go down during a dollar rise.

    This is not the last oppty to make money. Greed is dangerous when playing with your parent's retirement money. Of course, i'm making some assumptions here re: risk tolerance etc..."

    I too manage family accounts and I can tell you I am a lot more conservative with their money (it feels 10x worse when they have a draw down).

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  55. JAY, I liked the chart of GPL (pointing out the macd too)

    I posted this early this morning and yesterday ,and wanted to re-post for the weekly close.

    Blogger ALEX said...

    I will be away this morning, but I want to go on record and say

    GPL...

    -If it closes over $4.27 today, I think it is a strong buy and will add to my current position.

    (This stock has been 'hammered' on this blog as "no good anymore, stupid management" ,etc.) But It could be one of the best charts I've seen ,if it closes above $4.27. I still think it will run...(if not this daily cycle,most likely the next)unless this chart changes a LOT.

    *If it closes DOWN today, it retestes $3.50 ,if it closes above $4.27...I say it goes to about $7 by the end of this c-wave. (almost double?? Big words Alex)!

    Time will tell.

    April 8, 2011 4:31 AM

    AS for AG-
    I sold, but am hoping on the next pullback it goes to fill the gap near $22...the 20sma is there for support and another leg up may be spectacular.
    WINGMAN..you could be right.
    BLAMMO..you could be right.
    GARY..you have been right,not trading has been quite successfull too :)

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  56. Looks like we're going to get the break in the coil a little earlier than I thought. I was expecting next week.

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  57. Pima,

    C Wave topping never crossed my mind and I defer to Gary on the cycles. Also judging by what the past 2 C-Wave tops look like, this party is only getting started. i do think todays action however is similar to many previous "Daily" cycle tops.

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  58. Sandy-

    Good job. I pulled every retirement account last year, except one that had about 27K in it. I've taken a very aggressive approach with that account and am up 125% since Jan with just AGQ, SLW and small amounts of SLW calls from time to time.

    My regular accounts are up nicely, but that strategy has been a winner for the IRA.

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  59. Gary, how much of a drop are you expecting during the next daily cycle low?

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  60. people who put numbers on their returns are wankers, and probably lying

    we don't care dude

    bad form

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  61. Jayhawk,

    I am a novice investor. Just followed Gary in building the portfolio and timing.

    This was one of my smaller IRAs, hence just went 100 % AGQ at 130 $.

    I was a little slow at getting some other accounts invested, hence they are lagging a bit. Also, I am somehow not comfortable with leverage and possiblly big draw downs, hence did not use any leverage. I though AGQ being 2 times SLV was leverage enough.

    This is the first time I am making such great returns. It is a wonderful feeling.

    Can't thank Gary enough.

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  62. This is a trading blog viking, we compare notes on our trades & other ideas. People talk about their returns all the time, sheesh.

    I bet there are many here up way more than me...But having a return like that was fairly easy seeing the move we just had. Regular account is only up 1/2 that %.

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  63. Jayhawk, that is an excellent return! (you too, Sandy!)

    I can only imagine the patience that went alongside the due diligence.

    I'm in at 1.4 leverage (less after today) and up around 90% in the same timeframe. Pretty awesome, as far as I'm concerned.

    Am trying to think of ways to thank Gary and the blog (none of whom need $!) Maybe cultivate a garden of heirloom pintos and black beans for burritos.

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  64. Viking mate, that's a little harsh, people are just excited, these are massive gains even for seasoned traders/investors.

    I agree though when people throw out a monetary number, say like I made $600,000, that's not cool. That's just a relative and abstract number, mostly used to gloat and often lie.

    But stating an investment/trading strategy and % returns is fine IMO.

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  65. Jayhawk, I agree. Without posting things about positions and potential gains, what's the point? There may be some that stretch the truth, but like Sandy, I have followed Gary's advice and it has been very profitable. I think that is the best recommendation possible.

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  66. viking,

    actually you don't know whether "we" care or not. You obviously don't care, but you really can't say whether anybody else cares, can you?

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  67. I don't know -- Even when people throw out actual numbers, assuming they're attempting to be truthful, I find it potentially relevant as trading/investing is also a function of load-size and in context of life, goals, etc.

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  68. I LIKE TO HEAR HOW PEOPLE ARE DOING THAT HAVE BEEN WITH GARY LONGER THAN ME. Those who sold AG earlier in the week came out well to maybe rebuy.
    Great timing!

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  69. Poly,

    Thanks for that reassurance re the C topping. I 've been a sub only since last summer. I was cautious about riding the late summer/fall rally, so the move up since the January low is the first time I've been all in. Just a little nervous about giving back some of these nice juicy profits, AND I want to be in on this last move up after this next daily cycle low.

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  70. My objective of sharing was partly to motivate newcomers that sharing Gary has been extremely rewarding. That is all the more amazing since I am a novice investor who manages to lose money usually. I have mostly bought higher and sold lower!

    This is defintely not bragging. I am the first one to admit that only thing I did this time was follow Gary-no credit to me.

    Viking-I though that was uncalled for.

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  71. I like your garden plan, Vonda.

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  72. COT report is out but I am not experienced enough to read it well.

    http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

    It looks like the managed money piled into the long side of gold. THis was as of Tuesday.

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  73. @Sandy @Jayhawk -- I appreciate what you share.. happy for both of you.

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  74. Just a WAG, but I think AGQ will be up more than $15, and probably $17 on turn day.

    I'm actually using BB's on SLV to time this, and we're not close yet.

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  75. Sandy,

    It's also a transformation, coming from earning less than market average returns, to buying and holding Gary's calls, especially in the face of triple digit gains.
    You deserve credit, many fold them in.

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  76. trader Lady .. i have been with Gary since gold was a little below 1000$ .. its first pullback below 1000$ , the blog was, lets say animated, as Gold had traditionally never broken 1000$. Well, I guess some of those folks wish they had stayed the course.

    My piece of advice, dont listen to all the noise on this site, follow the plans laid out, and odds are you will finish more than 100% up, as I am.

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  77. blammo,

    great post re managing other people's money (family). I feel the same way, so the only way to do it and feel comfortable with it is like you said, smaller position size at IT or Daily cycle lows and add as you become profitable.

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  78. Thanks, Pima!

    Maybe we can partially convert to a foodie blog during the d-wave.

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  79. Poly,

    My biggest lesson is that you just have to buy at the IT lows and then hold your positions through the bull market. Gary is an excellent coach who will help you avoid big drawdowns.

    I remember his call last August to go all in with AGQ at 55 $ odd. I was a new subscriber at that point in time and bought GLD. I was too scared of AGQ volatility. Obviously, my returns last year were good but not spectacular.

    I can imagine the returns of people who bought AGQ at 55 $ and just held it all the way!

    Old Turkey is the way to go through bull market.

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  80. I highly doubt talking about an IRA account initially worth 27K is bragging. There are many hear making MILLIONS and have informed us so.

    Some of the older posters know what a head case I was (am?) last year. I managed to screw up massively some how and only walk away with peanuts vs. what I could have done. Hard lesson and I was DETERMINED not to get shaken off this run.

    I have a total couldn't care less attitude with my IRA and bought front month SLW calls, AGQ. So it did well...not recommending that as a strategy but in hindsight it was fun.

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  81. Silver back at highs for the day.

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  82. I wish you could edit post since I'm such a poor speller. Ah well...

    I sold my EKX today. (no not at the top) This one has had a great run and I am happy with the returns. I could be wrong, I could be right. I have a bit more cash now to plow into AGQ for the final run. Also, I'm out of AXU.

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  83. Thx Peter, I do little selling and hold on, even AG dropping, I held. LOL

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  84. @WES, Careful what you wish for, AGQ up almost $15 :-)


    @Sandy,

    100% agree, to identify the bigger trend changes/moves, which are what INT cycles are and what Gary does BEST, is the way to make BIG money. I post here a lost about trades and daily cycles, but in reality my bulk (80%) is locked in from IT bottom back on Feb 2nd.

    July SLV $20's in @ $8.10 roll higher strike since.
    July SLV $25's in @ $4.05 now $14.65
    July SLV $30's in @ $1.70 now $10.10

    That's the power of buying low and sitting.

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  85. Hasn't TZ told you that options don't work? :)

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  86. @Jay,

    Talking about a $27k is not bragging, sorry that wasn't my intention.

    I'm talking about the guys that come on and say "I'm up $4 million" or "I'm up $800,000 this month alone", almost out of the blue. They don't offer any background or specifics on the trades.

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  87. When is that next jobs report?
    I think the numbers have just dropped significantly with govt workers now unemployed.

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  88. re:AG, it's just a matter of whether you want to trade in and out of it around the daily cycle correction. I don't. I've been in since $6 and mostly held, even through the intermediate cycle low and it's worked out quite well. I plan to hold it until I sell all at the D wave.

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  89. Wingman, Sounds good, the blog helps the psy..

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  90. Looks like today will be a key reversal to the downside in the S&P 500.

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  91. Think of people in the general public that would be tripping all over themselves if they could could find 5% in bank accounts or cds or the like and we talk about making that in a day at times. This silver thing is out of control!

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  92. Actually, I just crossed 100% ytd today. (400% since signing up with Gary last summer.)

    Am currently in 1.3x with 1.15x AGQ and .15x in June 40 SLW calls. Got in late Jan, but I tinker too much. Every time I get a yoga shirt that says "peace," I mentally cross it out and write "patience." (And "surrender" on the mat.)

    Subscribing to Gary has greatly increased my discipline.

    Thanks again, for those who also shared, as I find it nice to hear about and celebrate milestones!

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  93. Gary, new to this site. Wanted to get your take on JPM, HSBC, etc. shorting the silver markets. Do you think shi*t will ever hit the fan?

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  94. Popping champagne this weekend.

    Unreal.

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  95. Vonda,
    That`s fantastic! This old turkey thing along with clear guidance and A PLAN is the real deal.

    I was overtrading, shorting and generally making a nuisance of myself,until I started keeping an eye on Toby Connor.

    Things are definately looking up!

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  96. Sheesh Vonda, you must be young. I'm retired and just can't put that much at risk.

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  97. Vonda-

    UNREAL returns. See viking...I told you there were many out there kicking my butt!

    I don't use leverage (except for some smallish option plays) but seeing folks talk about eye popping returns makes me wonder why not.

    Congrats all. Hopefully the real fun starts in the next daily cycle.

    Have a good weekend.

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  98. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  99. If this C-Wave blowoff is anything like the last couple (no reason to doubt), these gains will appear like chump change.
    Missing or screwing up a very good INT Cycle like last Summer/Fall is costly, but you don't want to miss a blowoff C-Wave, only a handful of those in any bull market.

    OK really time to watch the Masters. Have a good weekend all.

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  100. Poly,

    I think you're right about the turn coming on the opening or middle of the day. I don't think what happens in the last few minutes of trading makes any difference.

    If it turns over the weekend, it will be on news, and that's not timable.

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  101. Oh man, I didn't mean to "brag." Like Sandy said, I don't feel as if I did anything other than more-or-less follow Gary: more when I was smart and less when I was "making a nuisance of myself." (Funny, 86d4life!)

    Not too young, Driver, but trying to learn how to ride the waves--strategically increasing leverage at times and backing off at others.

    Congrats all! Love to hear those champagne corks poppin!!

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  102. And Jayhawk, I think you're doing just great!!

    My goal is to get to a nominal value where I feel comfortable with "normal" returns (whatever those are!), not use leverage, and not pay so much attention to the market.

    Though I would miss all of you! :)

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  103. WINGMAN

    And who wouldn't say that's a GREAT trade...in Ag at $6...congrats!

    I sold my buy on MNEAF that I posted a few weeks ago...volume is light for that break out and I think it will retest. I am NOT giving the money back :)

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  104. Vonda, I didn't take it as bragging at all. Good work!

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  105. WES,

    I've got to run out, but I would like to hear about your AGQ experience when you're done. I was thinking this being the vehicle for the last"20%" that gets aggressive, but I'm not sure if it makes sense over SLV.

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  106. Poly,

    I actually took your lead and took off a bit of leverage and I agree we may be a day or two early. I put the "extra" leverage on at the bottom of the last cycle and I'm still very leveraged. But I sold about 10% of my AGQ.

    Steven

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  107. Poly, if you're still here, I'm up between $10,000 and 20,000 for every point silver moves. And a few thousand in gold for every point. I know it's small potatoes compared to some who move 1/4 million+ a point.

    It's totally unleveraged. But, I've given up about $15,000 in losses so far trying to trade it my way in the futures market. I've spent months literally.

    It's been cheap therapy.

    In the D wave, I'll buy puts or take commodity options short.

    But the experience of additional position exposure without a scintilla of leverage has escaped me throughout this move, even though I called in Feb the target of 1530 or so, should gold break meaningfully above 1434 prior high.

    Your ability to buy and hold risk assets, options, is both stirring and frightening to me.

    I must protect the rise when it happens. But I can't dump the pile at one fell swoop as it's quite large and will take time (I hold one of the largest emphemera American silver collections in the country) and thus need desperately a way to get hedged, which I think will be puts against the total pile in gold and silver.

    My top call, like Gary's, is in the 50 range, hedging at $47 and higher. The rest belongs to the gods.

    Like with Steven, I ask that when you see the top, you too promise to announce it so folks like me can do what we think is wise to stop the losses in the D wave decline.

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  108. Poly,

    I went from SLV to AGQ because I was getting concerned about JPM's involvement in that fund.

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  109. gold silver troll, I sold just excess leverage in the form of APR calls expiring next week... most leverage is still on...

    might sell another bit of the leverage if gold tags ~1,500 since that would touch the channel line where it reversed at the previous top..

    my upper trendline for silver's similar channel for Monday is at about 42

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  110. Driver,
    Not a key reversal. Just a break to the downside like I described in the post. The odds are it will last 1-3 more days and then reverse for a big move higher.

    ReplyDelete
  111. I think some others last night were having the conversation about all the bogus advice floating around in this business. Hey, I pulled the trigger and made the trades. Fair enough. But does that mean I`m a genius now for trading less and making more? I don`t think so, but let`s face it;we all learn somewhere(hopefully lol)and getting into this racket in the last 2 years has been kind of nerve racking. Obviously there are a lot of the pros that can`t get up to speed on what is happening in these markets.

    One of the newsletters that I was subscribed to was just sending out market alerts and messages about about shorting gold this week! Thank God I canceled that subscription!

    ReplyDelete
  112. Alex,

    Any thoughts on the close for SHZ? It gave up all the gains

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  113. Thanks Gary!

    I can't emphasize that enough.

    I was looking over my returns for the last 4 years, and I was doing OK previous to following Gary. I was actually kinda proud of myself.

    But since August -- Geeeeeze!

    I would not have caught the beginning of this run, I would not have stayed the course, without Gary. I would have "diversified".

    I'm still shaking my head about how unbelievable this stretch has been.

    Thanks again, Gary.

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  114. Just would like to congratulate all of you guys for your tremendous play on the miners and silver!!! Gary knows his stuff! I have been following you for awhile, participating sometimes, but this has been truly an amazing run! Just a little parabolic for my tastes right now. I mentioned the 74.90 level for exhaustion on the Demark dailies and we are right there, right now as the currency markets mop up for the day. This short-term exhaustion looks to correspond to Gary's coil scenario - ie., we should see a bounce in the dollar the next 2 weeks as the markets roll over, but then the dollar "drubbing" will resume and we will finally hit the fabled DXY 72.5. Hey, it's only 3.2% away!

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  115. Alex,
    Thanks for the heads up this morning on GPL. What is your feeling on adding in at the next cycle low?

    Thanks.

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  116. Experience is the greatest teacher, and thus having never experienced a C-wave, I'm watching myself to gauge how I handle it.

    I know that 99 percent of participants will not be able to ride to the top. That gives me stability in my mind, as anything that 99 percent of the people can't do is likely to be rewarding as it pertains to a bull market.

    Have a great weekend!

    f

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  117. Gary,

    You're correct. After doing some research, I see it was lacking.

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  118. I look back at a bunch of the mistakes I`ve made trading and I`m starting to feel like a country song!

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  119. You know we're near a daily cycle top and getting closer to a C-wave top when everyone is bragging about all the money they've made :)

    I suppose it's going to get even more jubilant come the parabola's top.

    Cool heads folks :) Have a good weekend.

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  120. Alex, I just find when I overtrade it does me no good. It takes a lot of discipline for me to sit tight old-turkey as I love to trade.

    By the way, thanks for the headsup on MVG. I checked it out after you posted and pulled the trigger on some May 15 calls, and now up 42% in two days. Thanks, and have a great weekend!

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  121. Yes I would agree this is typically what we see as we near a daily cycle top.

    Everyone needs to be prepared for one more scary correction and not get shaken off because the best is still to come.

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  122. AGQ is like that Ronco oven...

    Set it and forget it.

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  123. It's funny, I used to play a lot of high stakes limit hold em here in MN, actually the highest you can play is 30/60. Anyways a couple buddies and I whenever we would get such a terrible hand that we even had to fold for $10 to complete the small blind with 4 or 5 callers (something like 7 3 off or something like that), we'd say to one another that must have been a major "shit box".

    Now every-time I look at the dollar and see its impressive weakness I subconsciously say to myself, "what a shit box." LOL. Thought I'd share what my subconscious thinks of the dollar. :)

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  124. Alex,

    Are you still liking AXU?

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  125. While we are all thrilled with life right now, oil has reached 113 $ +. The common man is going to take a major hit in coming months. It will not be pretty.

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  126. Ive Eaten Silver,

    Thats funny about your subconscious thought when you look at the dollar. Whenever I have been looking at it lately, I hear that song by the B-52's...Rock Lobster....when they sing "down, down, down".

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  127. Gold Silver Troll

    Well, SHZ is still up 5.7% today, but it was up HUGE and did give it up. I'm not too worried at this point for several reasons, but I dont like that candle today... it may retest that breakout / it may not.

    Check this out...Wkly and Daily.I'm gone for the night. Any questions on the charts ,I'll try to get back to you later. cya

    http://www.screencast.com/t/zajt5cLHVBr

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Y4EP2RAL3

    Click on the chart to enlarge

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  128. Gary,
    You keep warning about a "scary" correction. I'm just curious and obviously noone is holding you to a number, but what does someone with your experience in the silver market define as scary. Is it silver at 36?

    Other experienced traders care to venture a guess?

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  129. I have no idea where the next cycle low will take us but I would guess that a move to $36 would knock a whole lot of people off the bull.

    I would call that scary.

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  130. francisco

    i guess you have never seen a 30 dollar pullback on this board lol =)

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  131. 86D4life

    I added today , expect a retest of $5 )it was a high volume high).

    If it goes up there on light volume, I may sell there for the next pullback, get back in if it then retests the break today of that tri angle it broke from...IF that all happens...I'll post to buy that retest (at the low of the next cycle)

    THAT IS A "PROBABLE" GUESS type scenerio!! I just do that to get in my head, a feel for what may be , mixed with Garys cycles...I really just go with it as it morphs along :) NOW just dont want it back under the 20sma :) good volume today!

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  132. Jeff,
    I assume that you mean a $30 pullback in AGQ. That's not all that scary to me, but I can assure you that I won't be on the board that day if that happens. Poster's reactions freak me out more than what happens in the market.

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  133. If silver corrects to 36, Id say you can kiss 50 dollar silver goodbye for the following cycle, since you would be looking for silver to move up 14 dollars in 2 weeks, thats ridiculous even by silver's standards.
    Id say the correction will be a lot milder than people think, leaving most people selling at the 'over sold' levels chasing this thing into mania.
    Gary always overshoots on his estimates when it comes to corrections, and I'm sure this time is no different ;)

    ReplyDelete
  134. Poly,

    There is no doubt about the biggest bang for the buck from what I've traded so far.

    The (ever so slightly) OTM April 200 AGQ calls purchased 3/18 have yielded 320% in just less than a month.

    Now, if you do this for the final bit of the C wave, I suggest using a small part of realized profits so far.

    ReplyDelete
  135. Congrats and thank you to Gary. All plus sings for me...and big ones!

    Bob Loves Hawaii
    Thank you to you too. It was your comment that moved me into ZSL puts. My fumbling verifies that if you are on the right side of a market like this, anything works. Even with a less that timely entry my ZSL puts are up 40+% in a week. Cool, very cool. Hope to learn enough now to deal with the d-wave. Thanks again, wish you'd post more often...

    ReplyDelete
  136. Blogger TheBookGuy said...

    Alex,

    Are you still liking AXU?


    Not loving it :) hopeful, the patterns the same as EXK was, and I'm LOVING that!!

    ReplyDelete
  137. First off let me be clear I have no idea where the next correction will take us but I do expect it will be hard enough to convince most people the run is over and knock off all the late comers.

    Second a final cycle up is almost always extremely right translated. So this won't be a two week rally. It will probably be a 4 to 5 week rally. Silver could easily do $14 in 5 weeks especially considering most if not all of the correction losses will be recovered in the first 3-5 days.

    So if you are so heavily leveraged that you have to hope for a mild correction in order to hang on my suggestion is you lighten up a bit.

    ReplyDelete
  138. GARY

    ANY CHANCE AT ALL, based on your past experience as C-wave tops get closer...that the last cycle low before a blow-off top just goes more sideways/down, and not scary down?

    Not asking for a crystal ball, just is it almost always a real shakeout scare right before the final top? I wasnt involved in cycles when 2006 topped or 2004.

    Thanks

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  139. GARY

    You answered that and posted BEFORE I ASKED,while I was writing.

    You DO have a crystal ball!!

    Thanks and good weekend all

    ReplyDelete
  140. What are the chances that the final daily cycle doesn't materialize and that the correction is a bona fide roll over and the beginning of the D wave?

    I don't mind jumping, as long as I know the odds of not bouncing when i hit the ground. Other than that I live by the stops.

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  141. Hey Gary,
    Sorry about opening that can of worms. Just thought it would be a fun discussion point while I had a Friday celebratory beer.

    Noone expects you to be able to call it exactly, but your experience on this topic really is invaluable for us new to PMs.

    Thanks again and have a good weekend. Go get a margarita.

    ReplyDelete
  142. So Gary, help me out.. I've been subscribed for a while but confused here. Are we planning on just riding this next cycle low until stops are hit, or will you tell us to sell? and then you'll tell us when to re-enter. Or do you see that we'll just ride the cycle low down and back up?

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  143. Alex,

    Thanks. I'm holding onto AXU, just wondering what your thoughts were.

    Have a great weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  144. Dave,

    I think it is pretty difficult if not impossible to time cycles well enough to outperform the bull. Stay long until stops are hit. The exception seems to be for the top of the C wave, which will be exited based a call from Gary when the time as right.

    Its tempting to jump off and back on but those with more experience recommend against it. Buy the dips instead.

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  145. Gary,
    With one more scary correction, are we good with current stops?

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  146. Anyone remember last week's sentiment here?

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  147. Hey MrMiyagi,
    Yes, I do. funny how everyone's posts change with the market. LOL

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  148. the character of this board has really changed

    there are a lot of newbies on here that trade too much, put stops on

    your stops will get run grasshoppers

    then it will reverse and you will be on the sidelines

    personally I think it corrects down to 38 or so, then we get the last leg

    but as Gary says, surprises in a bull come to the upside

    the more you trade a bull, the less money you make from it

    the newbies won't listen though and will get their asses handed to them with leverage

    THE MORE YOU TRADE THE LESS YOU MAKE

    the big money is only for strong hands and brass balls

    the jitterbugs hit the windshield

    same as it ever was

    ReplyDelete
  149. I see nothing wrong with moving some funds around. Gary himself said about AG that we may have bled that one dry. I sell some juniors that exploded higher and shifted the capital to SIL. That's the only trade I've done since Jan, besides selling options that are heading into expiration toward the end of the daily cycle. Then I rebuy once the daily low is in. Pretty sure most here are just moving funds around to better performers.

    ReplyDelete
  150. 67M SoS on gold..leads the list today

    65M in block trades

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  151. This is not my forte so take this with a grain of salt but I expect that during the last leg up the biggest moves will come as hot money looks for laggards.

    So I suspect the big gains will come from buying the underperformers that are ready to make a big move and not in chasing the ones that have already moved.

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  152. at ease,
    I doubt we will get even close to those stops during the correction but just to be safe this late in the daily cycle one should remove all stops. You don't want to get stopped out on the last day of the correction.

    Stops are to protect against the possibility of a left translated cycle. That isn't going to happen at this point.

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  153. gary

    wow no 1410 stop? no 1380 stop? nothing?

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  154. Too bad it's the weekend! That was some momentum these past few days. The US$ index fell through the elevator shaft as well.

    Hai... MrMiyagi must relax.
    Wax on. Wax off.

    ReplyDelete
  155. Ok, thanks Gary, Glad I asked before I get on the road. Will take them all off tonight. Thanks Gary!

    ReplyDelete
  156. ...at ease, have a nice trip, wherever you are going :o)

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  157. What would be the point of stopping out at $1382 on the last day of the daily cycle?

    I seriously doubt we will even get vaguely close to $1382 though. My best guess is maybe something in the $1440-50 range.

    ReplyDelete
  158. ya im sitting here trying to take that move in

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  159. That was easy, all stops off!

    Thanks again Gary!

    Look for you at the top of the C wave!

    Thanks Eamonn!

    ReplyDelete
  160. Oh, have a question for anyone who trades E mini's. Any luck (profitable) with them or do you like them?

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  161. sorry still shocked, but i see your point

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  162. At ease,
    Did you figure out your exit plan?

    ReplyDelete
  163. Not for sure, I just collapsed a lot of gains from Options into AGQ SLW and have some more to do at the next cycle low. Not sure on the sell, just that we are watching to sell at $50 spot silver or use SLV to gauge. Any suggestions on how to automate is appreciated. Was thinking of putting contingent sell orders at SLV, however not sure if that is good or not, Haven't seen that discussed here. So right now, still winging it until I hear something from Gary. But anything to prepare is appreciated.

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  164. Hey Jeff, Whooohooo, we're gonna ride this bull by the seat of our pants (as Gary said). Hold onto your hat!

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  165. My head is still spinning from today's move. Gary, I can't thank you enough.

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  166. At ease,
    How about laddering out of your positions using you contingent orders. If your target is $50, start your laddering at say $46 increasing by say $1 increments. Break them up evenly at 20% or weight them say starting and ending with 5%-10% and your heaviest weighting in the middle. Sure, you`ll leave some money on the table, but look at your gains. Of course there`s alot of leeway to juggle the numbers. Even if you wanted to say leave 2% at $52 or something like that.

    ReplyDelete
  167. i was looking for a bull rideing clip to post a link. cant seem to find anything suitable to no stops. =)

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  168. Jeff,
    Just can`t get around that 8 second buzzer!

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  169. Jeff,
    I saw one the other night but it looked obscene... it looked like the bull and man had reversed positions. I had to keep looking at it and still laugh about it. The guy was hanging onto the bulls neck from underneath. So it was hard to say if he was riding or hanging on. :)

    ReplyDelete
  170. 86d4life,
    That makes good sense. Is that the strategy you use? Or have used?
    I have not used stops or contingency orders until SMT. So it's all learning here for me. But that is a plan to consider.
    Thanks for sharing it. :)

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  171. At Ease,
    No, I haven`t used it before. I was the stupid mope standing at the edge of town watching the parade leave saying `Hey wait, come back,where are you guys going in such a hurry`. Not this time! No NO! I`m going to be home fully tuned in, but at some point I will start laddering out and will probably be using stop loss or trailng stop loss orders. Also thinking the higher things go, I`ll tighten the percentages so eventually if it even flinchs, it`ll get blown right out of the water. Figured you`d like that submariner jargon.

    Ask your husband if he ever knew a MSGT John McGlaughlin. That would have been about 30 yrs ago.

    ReplyDelete
  172. One strategy and one I will likely use to prevent getting caught in a violent silver down draft is to convert all silver holdings to gold around $47-48 on silver.

    Then you can hold tight until we get some kind of topping sign from gold without having to worry about a one day $10 drop in silver.

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  173. Gary,
    That`s pretty impressive. Whatever small % gains are still left, we can still realize in gold and hopefully not get our chains jerked too hard. Did you come up with that? Also, what vehicle would think of moving to or is that question better for one of the nightly reports? Thanks a lot.

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  174. Hello Gary,
    If you gave me you address could I send you a Thank You card and some gold?
    Eamonn :o)

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  175. Silver Eagles would be sufficient :)

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  176. 86d4life, Is that Marines or Army?
    He was a Marine when I married him, did his career in the Army.

    ReplyDelete
  177. 86d4life,
    We are married hmmm, let me think... 39 years, so he might know you from either, as he retired after 36 years (30 USA)service. He has since been working DOD, with the last 3 years in London... oh that's right he just got furloughed.

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  178. I have a small collection of silver eagles that people have used to pay me for subscriptions. Feel free to add to it if you like.

    You'll have to send me an email as I don't want to publish my address on the blog.

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  179. Geeesh Gary, I just converted it all to silver! ROFLOL
    You just want to keep me on my toes.

    "convert all silver holdings to gold around $47-48 on silver."

    ReplyDelete
  180. Watch out there is going to be a run on Silver Eagles now. :)

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  181. at ease,
    You understand why we would do that right? So we don't get caught in a big one day sell off.

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  182. Gary, that is a workable plan as long as I know what is the exhaustion sign from Gold.
    I would say save it for the premium report. Thanks! Good to know there is still some playing going on instead of twiddling thumbs. I like it... a good plan and yours always come together.

    ReplyDelete
  183. At Ease,
    Marines.

    Did your husband really just get furloughed?

    ReplyDelete
  184. I had a similar thought today for my physical silver. Convert to physical gold to ride through the D-wave. I just can't stand the thought of parting with my physical stuff at any point. Anyone with thoughts on this?

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  185. Gary.. You should put up a paypal link or a favorite charity link. I'm sure many would like to contribute for forcing us to be old turkey.

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  186. Hmm let me think about that.

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  187. Yep, ridiculous eh? He gave everyone 59 minutes and turned off his blackberry as no one is to come to work on Monday until they are further notified.

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  188. Casey,
    I remember reading one of the blogs on INO, I think it was last summer, and this guy wrote in about how gold and silver had been the center of his familys wealth for the last 300 yrs and would be for the next 300. They acumulate when it`s cheap and very seldom sell. Personally I think why would I want to sell real money for frog pelts?

    ReplyDelete
  189. That ones easy.

    Because there are periods when the price of gold in frog pelts decreases. During those periods you want to own frog pelts.

    Then you can buy a lot more oz. of gold once you get close to the bottom of the correction.

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  190. 86d4life said
    " I was the stupid mope standing at the edge of town watching the parade leave saying `Hey wait, come back,where are you guys going in such a hurry`. Not this time! "

    I hear you! I was like a deer in the headlights, kept waiting for my funds to come back... poof they went to money heaven! Never again!

    ReplyDelete

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