We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Monday, April 18, 2011

Portfolio change

A possible portfolio change has been posted to the premium website.

763 comments:

  1. What is the rationale for selling more silver when you still believe the weekly cycle in silver has not topped, Gary?

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Today is a good example why to dump under-performing stocks. They get massacred on a market drop.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Because we are now overdue for a correction and I may decide to deploy that capital into DITM calls to juice returns above and beyond AGQ.

    Hey we only get a C-wave finale about every 2-3 years so one has to play it for all it's worth :)

    ReplyDelete
  4. Ok Gary, that's it! I am going to ask my husband to take care of the kids for few days so that I can come to Vegas and learn about cycles!!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Squirrel,

    Actually the better names (AG and EXK) are now getting hit vs. the laggards, but your statement is typically the case.

    ReplyDelete
  6. If gold continues down to closing, what number must it reach for cycle high to have been formed?

    ReplyDelete
  7. HUI getting murdered...back to the trendline that it broke out of ...

    ReplyDelete
  8. See I think stopping price just a hair under those big targets (1500 and 300 AGQ) was fascinating. Everyone was expecting those levels to take profits and now folks are staring at huge reversal candles wondering what to do.

    ReplyDelete
  9. MR Miyagi,

    Gold made a new high today...can't form a swing high today..we're set up for one tomm

    ReplyDelete
  10. This is going to be a real ugly intraday reversal if we close down. Will be a great buying opportunity in a few days though. Congrats to those who sold the news this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  11. DG,

    You still have a core in silver or AGQ?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Nike Boy2008,
    Thanks, I went and re-read terminoligy.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Once again, a bull market will have only one correction that exceeds 10%. We had that correction last summer in the S&P 500. So unless we go below 1209ish, the market is just making a new base for the next move higher. We don't even have a lower low below 1249 yet and folks are calling for a bear market. Especially after some were calling for new highs just a few days ago. Talk about getting control of one's emotions. I don't trade fundamentals BTW. :)

    ReplyDelete
  14. Gary and others,
    If one is looking to juice returns for the C wave, wouldn't silver futures be a choice?

    ReplyDelete
  15. DITM? Educate me please Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  16. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Any targets on where SLV could bottom out at on a correction here?

    ReplyDelete
  18. Are people feeling like a deer in headlights here?

    Just want to get the convo flowing as to what people are planning to do at this point?

    Still holding old turk? Or unloading some and booking profits before the low?

    Gary, can you elaborate as to why you wait for 5 min prior to close?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  19. On my IB stock watchlist i see notice on AG "short sale restriction in effect from ..." and the date.

    Seen that on other miners on big down moves before. Is this some automatic stock market rule or how that happens?

    ReplyDelete
  20. New York: I did a lot of trimming last week (maybe more than I should have). Am now "eagerly" awaiting a correction so I can put all my money at risk. :)

    ReplyDelete
  21. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  22. What holds true for equities (topping on good news) will also hold for other assets(PMs). Gary, the question right now is when to get back in??

    One thing which might happen now is that the Congress will start making the right noises.

    ReplyDelete
  23. The US$ index is acting like a senile old geezer.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Gary, why are you wating until a few minutes before the close today to make your move? Just like to hear your reasoning.

    ReplyDelete
  25. PC: Yes still long. I only own AGQ now (sold virtually all my miners and SLW a good while ago into strength---got a little lucky to catch the highs) I have been afraid that we might be in the final blow-off stage and am so far ahead I thought I'd sit with about 30-40% of where I want to be in AGQ. Looking forward to the coming bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Gary is still expecting that we haven't seen the top of this cycle yet. The target was $1,500 on $Gold, maybe a little higher. That's why he is waiting to see if today's action is for real or a fake out. That's the way I interpret his thinking.

    ReplyDelete
  27. A big reversal in silver would likely mark the top. We won't know if we have actually reversed lower until we close. I will probably lighten up a little further as well. I think that's a fine thing for people to do IF they are willing to buy on strength if they/we miss the bottom. And IF they won;t get scared and fail to add at the bottom waiting for a "little but more of a decline." If you might balk at either of these, don't get so light that you will kick yourself if they take off again without you.

    ReplyDelete
  28. Mr. Miyagi you crack me up..

    ReplyDelete
  29. The weakness expected will be quite shallow, since the lower BB is rising fast, and the dollar is rallying hard as is... should be over by week's end, and will probably bottom in the 1440-1450 range.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Long 6x. No changes.

    I still believe good chance we are in the runaway phase and that this week will end up strong.

    ReplyDelete
  31. slw pretty beaten up but AGQ is holding better

    ReplyDelete
  32. If that's a dead-kitty bounce on the US$ index, it's going to need a cathedral ceiling.

    ReplyDelete
  33. torero,
    If you had read the weekend report you would know that the coil pattern should reverse to make a new high. It has failed. That's a bad sign.

    If the market drops below the Japan bottom we will have a left translated a failed intermediate cycle. That is a sign of a bull market top.

    This is why I don't depend on charts and why cycles work so much better. I will have spotted the bear market long before your charts tell you that you are in trouble.

    The market has broken below the half cycle low. That is a bad sign. If I had money in the stock market (I don't) in an IRA I wouldn't be waiting around any longer.

    We are now in the timing band for the secular bear to return. It's too risky to continue to hold this far into a cyclical bull market. The potential upside is too small and the downside risk to great especially with the market not acting like it should be if it were going higher.

    ReplyDelete
  34. selling further into this small intraday bounce in the gold miners

    ReplyDelete
  35. For those who asked I have to wait till the end of day before I will know if the metals actually do form a reversal candle.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Both SNP and HUI on target for a BB trade if this holds up!

    ReplyDelete
  37. /DX screamin higher but no PM drop...?

    ReplyDelete
  38. I am getting close to a buy signal on SLW. One more bad day ought to do it. If it comes anywhere near the timing band for a gold bottom I will be forced to buy it (can you see the gun at my head?) Heck, even on a reversion to mean basis it ought to rally having been so trashed. By the time something shows up on my buy screen it is very seriously overdone on the downside. It will bounce, I'll put in my break-even stop, and we'll see if it can get legs. For you option guys interested in taking a shot, it'd probably be a good call play. I will post if I get the buy on it.

    ReplyDelete
  39. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  40. DG,
    I was looking at SLW and thinking along the same lines wanting to top off a couple of calls.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Mr. M---not yet though, I don't think.

    ReplyDelete
  42. DG,
    I would appreciate that signal. Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  43. Vonda,

    No, my sacrificial trade has not been made yet! My finger is poised on the trigger though. It will be a very small amount of my equity if/when it is made.

    Ideally, silver's weakness grows throughout today. I'll see where we are at the close.

    ReplyDelete
  44. DG, I am thinking $40 should hold on SLW. If it holds till the EOD, I am buying.

    ReplyDelete
  45. Gary,
    The SPX essentially went straight up for 5 1/2 months. So far, all we are seeing is a healthy correction of that powerful move. The market is acting like it should. For us to continue higher, the market needs to load the bear boat again. I am mostly flat equities and will wait for confirmation the correction is over before entering new swing long positions. Selling pressure has not increased and buying pressure has also been muted. Classic sideways consolidation. Again, if we were to enter a bear here, critical levels will be broken and I would be ready to short the first powerful retrace. I absolutely will never front run a bear market. That's suicide.

    ReplyDelete
  46. Last time SLW went below 40$ was a month ago.

    ReplyDelete
  47. DG,

    Thanks again for your great, helpful posts. I enjoying following your trades and the reasons behind them, you are providing all of us with a great education.

    Same goes for TZ, Alex, Poly and the other experienced traders.

    You input, combined with Gary's premium content, has helped me to dramatically improve my PM investing returns over the past month.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Gary: Unless I am misunderstanding something, when you say something like you said this morning: "The dollar cannot have bottomed yet because it hasn't formed swing low" you mean it hasn't finished the bottom formation series of prints. By definition the actual low must be lower then the point at which swing low is established because it's a rally that establishes the swing low. The dollar bottomed this past Thursday (that is, if you call the low the bottom). Today, I suppose, confirms it in retrospect. For myself, I'm glad I didn't wait to buy EUO. I have found I am usually not buying at the swing low signal and instead buying when I see what looks like an actual low print to me.

    ReplyDelete
  49. DG or Mr miyagi,
    Would either of you wait for a swing high in gold before entering a position in SLW? Would a swing low be the final confirmation of a buy signal?

    ReplyDelete
  50. Silver seems pretty healthy ... despite stronger dollar and lower oil...what a market!!

    ReplyDelete
  51. Michael: I myself usually don't pick prices. I find it is better to let the market tell me what to do. Gary is right, the obvious prices are usually violated to run the stops, get a little panic going, and then reverse higher. 40 of course could hold, but it may bottom at 41 or 39 just as easily in my view. If I had to pick a price I'd pick 38---the March bottom and where my buy would likely hit. If I get the buy and we are at 38 I will definitely buy it, but without my buy for me it's just a guess and not worth betting on.

    Gotta: My pleasure. Mail checks to...

    ReplyDelete
  52. Wav_ridah,
    Waiting for a little closer entry to the silver swing low, the final wave.
    Can't time it perfectly but that's reality.

    ReplyDelete
  53. DG,
    yes we have a swing on the dollar now so it is possible to have the bottom.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Torero/Beanie?

    The market should not violate the half cycle low. If it violates the Japan bottom then this bull market is toast.

    ReplyDelete
  55. I think Beanie is out refinancing his house so he can keep holding his favorite group of semiconductor stocks. Man, I was short SMH at the top (36.50) but wasn't convinced enough to just hold it. Next time I might take fading Beanie more seriously. Dow 30,000 here we come! If we really are toast I look forward to shorting, but my primary attention and capital now is on getting the next gold daily cycle low. Once the C-wave ends we're going to have fun on the downside. Alex, I'm gonna get you short, my friend! They go down a lot faster than they go up.

    ReplyDelete
  56. I think the bottom on the miners may be in. Could see a retest of those lows on further metal weakness.

    Love how Gary's triangle pattern is behaving. Intra-day dip under it but a close over 574 would be nice.

    That dip also looked like a tag of the 50% retracement off the March to recent top move.

    HUI

    SIL resting on it's 50%. Zone under looks like good support.

    SIL

    SLW hit it's 78.6% number. Extremely oversold.

    SLW

    I'm starting to think about adding 1/2 my mining positions here and 1/2 at the confirmed low.

    Those who play the miners I would love feedback

    ReplyDelete
  57. Not Beanie! Don't try to change the subject. :-)

    ReplyDelete
  58. Gary,

    What would you look at to confirm the dollar's swing low making a bottom? This would modify the expectation of a touch/break of the prior low, right?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  59. Gary,

    You said earlier today that the stock market has broken below the half cycle low. Why couldn't today's low end up being the half cycle low? (And the 4/14 low was just one of several lows on the way down to the half cycle low.) Or, if we go lower tomorrow, then tomorrow's low could turn out to be the half cycle low?

    Seems like we can't know for sure until we see what the market does from here. If today's low holds, then today's low will turn out to be the half cycle low, right?

    ReplyDelete
  60. Jayhawk, SLW could well be putting in an exhaustion candle right now. I am tempted to buy some calls here.

    ReplyDelete
  61. In Demark land today, DXY is responding to its 1-4 Bar Buy Setup on Day #4. Kevin Depew in "Five Things you need to know: US Credit Downgraded by S&P" sez: "After all, did the S&P futures not just drop 10 points on 'news' of the S&P downgrade? Sure, but the long-term patterns of markets reveal in time that such apparent exogenous factors are a bit like gnats biting a buffalo. In my DeMark analysis, the US dollar needs a new low, below 72, and possibly even a move below 70, crossing the round to help foster more dire headlines and warnings. After that , it will be over."
    So, it appears that Depew is lining up more with Gary's chart from his weekend report, so DXY 72.5 may not be such a line in the sand after all. However, I don't agree with Gary's chart that DXY will probably not go back much more over 80 - if we're looking at the return of the bear, DXY pushed 90 two times in the last 3 years - at least give it that...
    Depew also looks at silver again in his "market notes" of the Buzz and Banter. Not much new, but here goes:
    DAILY: Minimum requirement for wave 5 up has been met, but we are only on Bar 4 of potential Sequential 13 Sell (minimum of 9 days) Next TD Absolute Retracement target up at 45.32
    WEEKLY: Weekly has met minimum requirement for Wave 3 up as well. TD Sequential 13 Sell signal occurred the week of April 1, but the upward momentum continues.
    MONTHLY: This month is bar 12 up of a potential TD Sequential SELL signal
    QUARTERLY: This quarter is bar 8 up of a Sell Setup and bar 10 of a Sequential 13.
    YEARLY: This is bar 9 of a Sell Setup which will record - 1-4 year downside reaction forthcoming
    Depew reiterates that he is making sales this year because he believes the long period of metal outperformance is ending, but remains a long-term silver bull, especially versus gold.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Please excuse me i may be missing some fundamental pont here, but if the dollar has posted a half cycle low and is now turning up shouldnt that put additional pressur eon spot gold which in turn would result in increased selling pressure on gold miners particularly those with the greatest spot exposure

    ReplyDelete
  63. classic full moon action!

    nice drop in euro and stock market and copper, nice ramp by grains and precious

    http://astrocycle.net/index.php?Menu=Astrology&SubMenu=Panics

    on April 19-20 in history: — Start of Revolutionary War
    — Battle of San Jacinto
    — Start of Civil War
    — Start of Mexican-American War
    — Start of Spanish-American War
    — America abandoning the Gold Standard (not the Nixon one)
    — Failure of Bay of Pigs Invasion
    — End of Viet Nam War
    — Largest battle of warships since WW II
    — Explosion on USS Iowa
    — The BP Oil Spill in Gulf of Mexico

    ReplyDelete
  64. ahain: I agree with you. I do not believe the miners have bottomed yet. Heck, silver has been down for only three hours! We ought to have at least a couple of days where the metal and the miners are both down, but we'll soon see.

    ReplyDelete
  65. I thought that Gary was expecting 3$-6$ selloff on Silver, not 0.5$ selloff...If so, why is everybody trying to buy today??

    ReplyDelete
  66. Jayhawk,

    Shouldn't we wait for the daily cycle low in gold to form? If the miners hold their current lows while the metals dip down, that would be a positive divergence and a sign to get back in. Of course, they could always drop lower.

    ReplyDelete
  67. sophia,
    I don't think any here are adding SLV or GLD.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Sophia,

    I am not buying! (yet :-)

    I don't get the impression that folks are buying just yet. Some have looked at the miners and are salivating a bit.

    I have to wonder about the metals, though. What will cause them to go down for more than a few hours (other than the climax top of the parabolic move)? So I wonder whether we will get a recognizable daily cycle low at all.

    ReplyDelete
  69. DG, im waiting for the fear factor to kick in, it still looks a little too comfortable to be on the long side right now. Probably a good time to look for some cheap mining stocks. The question is given the C - wave, it would probably be better to pick outperformers rather than underperformers. If we were at teh start of teh move my preference would be underperformers, but at this late stage surely we have to stick with the Silver Wheatons. What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
  70. I must have read something about strong support for SLW somewhere then...Thanks Miyagi-san, it makes more sense to me...

    ReplyDelete
  71. I'm re-establishing my positions in the miners, I'm buying strong sell off days all the way down.

    SLW is way over sold.


    Miners may have sniffed out the daily cycle top and they may sniff out the low. I'm looking for a very strong rebound the final daily cycle in the miners and for them to lead up out of the correction.

    I see limited downside here for many of the tickers I follow so I added a % of my target allocation.

    ReplyDelete
  72. One issue that was on the table in August's runup, yet has not been mentioned here at all by Gary, is the potential of a runaway move developing.

    ReplyDelete
  73. I am not touching anything...Tried a small long on NSQ and barely broke even, so will wait for another day to touch anything of my position

    ReplyDelete
  74. Sophia: I have no idea why people are buying today, but I assure you it's not "everybody." SB waits for weakness as do I. I bet neither Poly nor Alex are buying today either. One of the great things about this board is that you slowly find the people you want to emulate. Poly's SPY purchase last week helped nudge me into buying as well. [I hope he sold when I did though ;-) ]

    ReplyDelete
  75. dumamae - if you have to ask, you're not ready to buy options.

    that said, it's never too late to learn. there are many free options tutorials available out there. gary also discusses his particular options strategies on the subscriber site.

    ReplyDelete
  76. As in the stock is 50$ and you buy 42$ calls. A 48/49$ call would be in the money. A 51$ call is out of the money. A 60$ call expiring within a month is a lottery.

    ReplyDelete
  77. I agree with you that considering the price action, I would not touch it, but there are so many comments talking about itchy fingers that it makes me wonder...

    ReplyDelete
  78. ahain: For myself I am sticking with AGQ and SLW if I get my buy on it. I will post other names if/when they show up on my screen. The which is better, and underperformer or overperformer is a good question. I'm afraid it's one of those things I do by feel at the time. Either can work well.

    ReplyDelete
  79. DG
    I'm not buying yet either. However I do remember Jayhawk was among the few who bought AGQ not to long ago at 130 as it bounced off the 150dma. I know enough to know I really am not good at this so I will just wait for Gary to add his options on SLV, that will be close enough to the bottom for me.

    ReplyDelete
  80. DG. Effective Volume may help with the stock picking. More here www.effectivevolume.eu Im not plugging its not my site and they charge however at monest.net http://www.monest.net/charts/ they have a free charting package they have a free online charting tool where you can select these EV indicators. Fundamentals, relative strength dont work, the EV tool helps me to see where big money (big volume) is placing their bets.

    ReplyDelete
  81. Just to add, right now the Large Players EV indicator is diverging with GLD, showing large players have been selling since 11 April

    ReplyDelete
  82. ahain: Thanks. I have been meaning to put more energy into studying volume, but I keep not doing it so I guess I am not interested in opening up a new area of study for myself. Too old I guess. I mostly spend time looking for my dentures. (That's a joke, by the way. I played eight hours of volleyball this weekend, so no wheel chair for me quite yet.)

    ReplyDelete
  83. Wow, 8 hours. I spent 8 hrs digging a trench for hedging. Luckily my fingers are the only part of my body i can still move without too much discomfort.

    Just as a side note, Goldmans report tomorrow, some of teh financials are looking strong. We could see the equities take off here led by financials which could add to the gold argument (weakness)

    ps Goldmans looks like its being bought

    ReplyDelete
  84. So on a gap down tomorrow would be a good buying point. (ill go back into my hole now)

    ReplyDelete
  85. Jay,

    What miners are you buying?

    I see AG and EXK are both up 5-6% from today's low.

    ReplyDelete
  86. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  87. that monest.net charting site is pretty nifty, thanks for the link!

    still long SPY, would have to see a close below the march 23rd pivot (/es 1278) to dissuade me.

    ReplyDelete
  88. St. L, nice to see ya. Good trip?

    ReplyDelete
  89. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  90. http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/04/prelude.html

    Prelude

    Check out the latest post on a subject most do not appreciate

    ReplyDelete
  91. A peak under the hood,

    Wasn't this story reported a few days ago on ZH? I remember reading it

    ReplyDelete
  92. Gotta-

    Those 2 and SLW I picked up today. But remember I was looking to build back a position after over scaling out. Of course we will go down further and I will just keep averaging in on the way down this daily cycle low. I can't afford to be hand sitting if this thing decides to do what TZ thinks. (runaway)


    This kind of reminds me of the QE2 announcement day on Nov 3rd. Deep into the intermediate cycle, gold and silver looked very stretched, people calling for a corrections, "sell the news", was going on. The day looked like a sell the news event, but the reversed the losses and then we went on to launch to new highs over the coming days/weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Jayhawk,
    I'm holding SLV and SLW cals, just waiting for the drop to finalize purchases.
    If it doesn't materialize for some unprecedented reason, I'm placed to make money.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Today's action started off great but is getting a little frustrating. Sure hope we finish down otherwise this could very well be a runaway move and we simply continue higher tomorrow.

    May be forced to buy back what I sold early this morning.

    ReplyDelete
  95. Shalom Bernanke (and he should correct me if I'm wrong) said he was looking to buy miners if the .HUI got down to 565. Well, it bounced smartly off 566 this morning.

    I'm not messing with miners much (90% AGQ with some NUGT and SLW calls) but those who are should be interested in that.

    ReplyDelete
  96. I thought this is all about the $, which looks like it's putting in a solid swing low today. Or are we still concerned about PM decoupling w/ $??

    ReplyDelete
  97. nice tails on everything today

    fake bounce or bottom (runaway move). this week promises to be very interesting :)

    DG,
    thank you for willing to post the SLW buy signal when you get it

    ReplyDelete
  98. MrMiyagi,

    I was thinking of buying some SLW warrants at the daily cycle low. Have you had any experience with warrants?

    ReplyDelete
  99. 1294 low on spx is 50% of 1249-1339

    also left shoulder is also 1294.
    now right shoulder also 1294.

    I know this blog hardly cares for spx. but i think we get good PM results when spx up or at least not down much.

    ReplyDelete
  100. I wish more people like TZ were calling for a runaway move..haha

    when everyone out there is expecting a correction (despite the sentiment),a run-away move sure seems possible (like TZ was mentioning) followed by a 25% drop in one day

    wish Gary was the only one expecting a correction...unfortunately, the whole blogosphere is looking for one

    ReplyDelete
  101. The argument has been that a rising dollar should bring down the PM but as we can see, in the past 2 days the PMs have risen alongside the dollar so it isn't perfectly negatively correlated. Plus in the past, the two have risen together for extended periods of time. Only time will tell as always....

    ReplyDelete
  102. I too am looking at PM's seeming strength in the face of hearty increase in $$.

    Is it too soon to say the inverse relationship is looking suspect?

    ReplyDelete
  103. Rob L,
    No, I try to keep it simple, stocks and options. I rarely short as well.

    ReplyDelete
  104. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  105. Miners and metals got rocked in Jan in the face of a falling dollar.

    If a three year low is in front of us on the dollar, we could see a sideways correction in gold and silver and then huge launch.

    ReplyDelete
  106. if SLW closes flat or green, I will buy at EOD (for a quick trade)...SLW has one LONG tail to ignore

    ReplyDelete
  107. Picture perfect tag of SLW 78.6 level with a HUGE tail in that hammer. Also that 40 EMA looks to be holding!

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Jayhawk1991/folders/Jing/media/ea2ca299-9490-4277-bcd5-0ac411cba723

    ReplyDelete
  108. BOy AGQ has been volatile today. Easy to see why Gary is waiting until the close to make a determination.

    ReplyDelete
  109. catbird,

    You're correct, that level sounds good, but remember price levels are secondary to price action (direction) in my trading.

    What I mean is that when miners were acting well and in tandem with the metals, I would jump all over the 565 HUI level, as well as not selling anything. However, last week forced me to dump my positions because of the divergence, with my holdings exhibiting relative weakness except for 2 positions.

    Today is showing this again, with silver up and most miners getting hit. I'd be happy with these prices, but only if miners can get in gear with the metals. Since I'd like to see this happen for a few days, I have not jumped in as yet.

    I'll be back in the miners no doubt, but it'll also be for shorter hold times (like 1-2 weeks per trade) now that we're later in the C-wave and I'm seeing sloppy divergences.

    I'll be sure to post when and what I buy, but for now am waiting for clarity.

    ReplyDelete
  110. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Gary/Others,
    I know this is usually not how cycles work, but what do people expect as a catalyst to get some sellers in the PM market? I know that Gary always talks about overbought conditions and sentiment, but what do you think it will take to get some selling momentum in PMs this time. I assumed an agressive move in the dollar would encourage some selling, but it looks like investors are still holding strong and there are plenty of buyers stepping in at these levels. Is this a rotation from institutional to weaker retail hands, which is forming a base for panic selling if/when prices start to move lower?

    ReplyDelete
  112. gold silver troll,

    Could you explain what a tail is?

    Thank you.

    Elaine

    ReplyDelete
  113. Elaine-

    That means buyer are coming in strong on that dip.

    http://www.fxwords.com/b/bullish-hammer-candlestick.html

    ReplyDelete
  114. This strength in the metals is quite something. Each dip is being bought. Gold is forming another micro ascending triangle which if it breaks out will take it to the 1518 range.

    However the sentiment here can be described as nervously bearish for the very short term as it has been since last Monday.

    The question still is - are we on day 24 or day 4 or a runaway move?

    While, we can still have a 28 day cycle with a decline in the next 4 days, everyone here seems to have already sold and are antsy to buy back. So we are early as we expect to be, but with everyone wanting to buy back, I doubt we will get that multi day dramatic decline. 36 seems way too far from here.

    ReplyDelete
  115. Were you guys expecting S&P to downgrade the United States today? I sure wasn't and I'm a hard core PM guy who reads and listens to everything. Now think about how the market is going to digest this news...Go long USD or bonds? Long stocks? Where's the money gonna go?

    Hint-one is yellow, one is white.

    ReplyDelete
  116. If the miners close near the highs of the day and form long tails today, its very bullish. However, I doubt they will go up in front of a decline in metals.

    Either this is just a head fake in the miners, or they are indicating metals will continue to go up.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Best strategy is hold a bunch and keep some cash for the dip.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Jayhawk,
    The rotation into metals today makes sense to me. What surprises me is the strength in the dollar.

    I was thinking that we'd get the dollar bounce this week, and that would be the "catalyst" for the smart money to take profits. That's why I'm wondering if people jumping on board now are the weaker hands which will be dumping at the first sign of a move down.

    I agree with Gary's early point that the likely top will come when everyone can't stand the pain of being out, so I'm wondering if this is the final panic into the market. Judging by some of the comments on the board today, it seems like even the "informed" group here is being tempted to jump back in.

    ReplyDelete
  119. The FED could have been ready for this announcement ahead of time and they could be the ones buying dollars bending the scenes to prevent a panic sell off.

    ReplyDelete
  120. I think that the dollar strength today is more a function of euro weakness, so we're currently the tallest....um, "little person" in the room. I should have clarified and stated that I'm surprised by the corresponding dollar and PM strength together. I guess that I was hopeful that the dollar bounce would be the catalyst for the anticipated correction in the metals. I guess a little more patience is warranted to see how this thing plays out over the next week or so.

    ReplyDelete
  121. I am seeing a lot of bear flags on the miners that have broken down today; SIL, SLW, GDXJ, AG, GDX.

    I would imagine more downward pressure to come this week.


    James

    ReplyDelete
  122. Usually these moves like we see with SLV this "porpoise nose" pattern is smart money exiting. I hedged further today.

    ReplyDelete
  123. james r,

    I see a break down from a bear flag in GDXJ, but no bear flag in GDX.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Jayhawk,
    To your earlier comment, courtesy of ZH:

    The Reason For Geithner's Weekend Media Whirlwind Tour: White House Learned About S&P Downgrade On Friday

    And for the most unsurprising news of the day, Reuters reports that the White House has admitted it knew about the S&P rating action on Friday. Which means that all the key bond buyers (or sellers are the case may be, Pimco), knew at roughly the same time what the key market catalyst on Monday would be (we can't wait to get a declassified glimpse of Larry Meyer's phone log over the weekend one day in the future). Which also means that today's action was a strawman in which the big boys merely waited for an opportunity to buy bonds are lower prices, which the ongoing European collapse merely facilitated.

    ReplyDelete
  125. Bob" What's a "porpoise nose" chart pattern?

    ReplyDelete
  126. Fransico:

    Are you saying the system is corrupt? Unpossible.

    ReplyDelete
  127. >The FED could have been ready for this announcement ahead of time and they could be the ones buying dollars bending the scenes to prevent a panic sell off.

    The white house admitted of knowing about the downgrade on friday. Which means the fed and all the 'boys' in NY knew it as well.

    They were ready and slammed down everything afterward (as well as Moody's coming out and saying they thought everything was fine and the US was is good fiscal shape.)

    Same manipulation games.

    (You can track the stories on zerohedge if you want.)

    ReplyDelete
  128. You guys wanna see a hammer formation? Check out ABX.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Huge Silver Volume day. Second highest this year anyway.

    http://screencast.com/t/Rb4LaUgr

    ReplyDelete
  130. DG, it is when you get a first hour spike on a position and then it rolls over lower, tracing out a porpoise nose. Typically signals weakness in coming days.

    ReplyDelete
  131. Jayhawk,

    essentially a credit downgrade means that our nation is (in the eyes of S&Ps) one step closer to default. a nation defaulting on it's debt is one of the most deflationary events that can happen. it is a massive collapse in the supply of money and credit, and we know that fewer dollars chasing the same amount of goods = lower prices and thus the market buying dollars on a day like today make sense. simple as supply falls, demand rises.

    however, when you have the fed trying to fight this cycle by infusing the banks with cash, you first get all this debt washed away by default, followed by hyperinflation almost over night.

    this currently is the path we are on, which why metals in the long run are the smartest choice. however dollar waves of dollar strength does play nicely into my theory.

    ReplyDelete
  132. Too funny CMT.

    If you look at Pimpco's holdings prior to Fed announcements, they have perfectly frontrun both QE1 (bought MBS) and QE2 (bought 2-10yr. treasuries). They did so with considerable leverage to, which Pimco usually doesn't do. It's too bad that they have 45 days to file their SEC documents, or you'd be able know exactly what the Fed was planning to do in advance.

    ReplyDelete
  133. The buying is relentless.
    Can you imagine the panic selling with a 3$ drop?
    After that, you have to wonder how many will have cold feet to jump back in and how many more will pour cash in because they're convinced it will climb forever.

    ReplyDelete
  134. BLH,

    If it is the smart money trying to exit, they have an overhang in the 1496-1498 range. Thats the top of the ascending triangle I mentioned earlier. It continues toward its apex with 5 attempts and an ongoing march for a sixth attempt. With so many attempts, its likely to overcome that resistance and go above 1500 toward 1518.

    If it does break out, I am not sure its smart money thats selling here. They make come in later though. Also no GLD on SoS list, SLV is #6 with 9.8M and 6.7M block trades.

    ReplyDelete
  135. 1) This is week # 5- highest probability for a cycle top.

    2) Also April 26th (next Tuesday) is Metals Options Expiration. Furthermore, my understanding is that it may till Thursday of next week for options to clear out (per James Turk mentioning during last month's expiration).

    So we have quite a while for volatility to calm down...top may not be this week necessarily

    ReplyDelete
  136. YLD, you may be right, but I have a lot of profitable options that I am protecting / taking profit on. The last daily cycle low ripped the premiums from the options, and with us so late in the cycle on a low volume week, my suspicion is smart money is selling today to enjoy their Seders and Easter breaks.

    High volume today, as well.

    ReplyDelete
  137. AGQ charts and action are meaningless. Its merely a follower to SLV. You need to look at SLV charts and action even if you are trading AGQ.

    ReplyDelete
  138. I am starting to think about these two possibilities:

    1) We have a runaway move in gold and silver, or
    2) The daily cycle low already came and went, and it occurred on April 12.

    If #2 is in play, then we are only on day 5 of the new cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  139. The reason I came up with those possibilities is that today would have been a perfect day to begin the move down into the daily cycle low. Strong dollar rally and we're very late in the cycle.

    Because it has not happened--instead gold and silver look like they will close on their highs--that leads me to believe it's not going to happen.

    ReplyDelete
  140. In that case, BLH, I agree with your action. I don't like the drops in the premiums either and got out of all options over the past three weeks. I am now scaling in with futures only.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Bob: Thanks. I'd have thought a close at the highs would invalidate the reversal from the first hour spike.

    Re gold: Interesting. Another decent up day tomorrow and I will probably get a sell on gold. The only other one I have gotten this year was on 4/8---the day of the recent high before that pretty stiff two day drop. (the previous one was at the top in November) This would also fit with gold poking its nose about 1500. Maybe today's recovery will suck in the last of the "it's never going down again" crowd. Waiting...waiting...

    ReplyDelete
  142. PimaCanyon,
    It is possible......

    ReplyDelete
  143. I just rolled over the 50% ytd return mark... thanks Gary!

    ReplyDelete
  144. Jayhawk,

    Thank you for the link.

    ReplyDelete
  145. There's one other possibility:

    Next week is Last Notice Day for gold and silver futures (April 27). Seems like every month around this day gold and silver get hammered. So maybe the take down will happen early next week.

    But the behavior today would suggest that whatever move down we get next week (if any), it won't be much.

    ReplyDelete
  146. pima,

    I agree that its a higher probability (60%?) that a runaway move or a new cycle is underway and have been saying it the past 3 days. However, as I posted earlier today, we still have 4 days in which to have a decline. It may not be a large decline, but the daily cycle low can still happen this week. I leave it up to cycle specialists to call it when they see it.

    ReplyDelete
  147. I know we have seen day after day after day of gains on gold & silver but my gut tells me that it will go down. Unlike my gut, which needs a few situps and some cycling to retreat.

    ReplyDelete
  148. what about the possible-portfolio-change Gary?

    ReplyDelete
  149. These hammers are most amateurish. Infact closes in the green only reinforces the selling on strength that my tape reading is confirming. Even a gap up tomorrow would be a great point to exit longs.

    ReplyDelete
  150. So we are just about to the point where Gary said he might sell some ... Do we have the indicator he was looking for? I don't know enough about the charts to see for myself.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Elaine,

    A "tail" refers to the way a candle on a candlestick chart looks on a day like today. If you look at today's candle or gold, silver, or some of the miners, you'll see the body of the candle near the top and it's small. Below the body is a long wick or "tail".

    (Not sure where the "tail" terminology came from but it's widely used. They are candlestick, so the part outside the body--above and below--should be called wicks. But few people call them that.)

    ReplyDelete
  152. Gotta: No. We needed to close down for Gary to sell a little more and we aren't going to.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Gotta,

    I doubt very much Gary will be selling. We don't have a reversal candle on the daily.

    ReplyDelete
  154. I don't have live charts - so anyone, please, indicate if we do in fact have that reading Gary indicated!
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  155. All: I am away again for a couple of days, but I will try to post if/when I get that sell in gold.

    ReplyDelete
  156. DG,

    We will miss you!

    Please keep us posted, I like to follow your trades.

    ReplyDelete
  157. Pima,
    Your much more experienced at this than am I, but isn't this the type of action that you would be expecting before a "scary" correction. If we need to have overbought conditions and extreme bullish sentiment, then I would think that we'd need this final "it's not going down" sentiment. Judging by the comments on this board, people were far too complacent and willing to wait last week, while now people are getting concerned that it's running away without us. My gut says that once everyone here concludes that we have a runaway market, well that's about the time it will roll over.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Oh, never mind - I just read the last posts. Goodnight from England lads and lasses
    J

    ReplyDelete
  159. ahain,

    SLV is on the SoS list today, but not a huge number and the number in the block trades column is less than half of the total.

    What's missing from the SoS list is GLD and miners.

    ReplyDelete
  160. Can someone please elaborate what the reliability of reversal candle may be & how Gary's play: selling 10 pcnt more AGQ and replacing those with DITM calls ( in what?) would juice his returns? This must be overly tricky / risky/ complicated or all of those, for newbies.....? Would same logic hold: lighten up on AGQ and buy back more after dip? THANK$

    ReplyDelete
  161. Vonda,

    I did my small "sacrificial" AGQ purchase a minute ago. Now we can maybe awake to a healthy gap down...heh heh.

    ReplyDelete
  162. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Francisco,

    Makes sense. Maybe next week will let enough time pass to get everyone on board the not-gonna-get-a-correction bus and then we tank, just in time for Last Notice Day.

    ReplyDelete
  164. Silver back near all time highs, but no breakout for Gold from the ascending triangle...we have to wait to see the result after regular hours. Very low volumes compared to the first third of the trading session though.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Matrix, my guess is Gary has discovered as I did that a big AGQ position takes a lot of capital and you can invest just as heavily with calls for a lot less money in SLV or maybe another instrument.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Matrix,
    Gary is unloading AGQ because;
    1) He's made a ton of profit on it and
    2) The volatility and spread as we get closer to the C-Wave burst will be quite high.

    It is my understanding that he will purchase SLV calls.

    ReplyDelete
  167. John,

    Some brokers give you live data if you have an account with them. Think or Swim does. I use TOS and I'm very happy with their charting package.

    ReplyDelete
  168. Matrix,

    The ideal would be to sell AGQ and then buy SLV calls with silver at a lower price than where it was when you sold AGQ.

    For the same money that you spend on 100 shares of AGQ, you can buy 30 DITM SLV calls! Talk about leverage!!

    I would be surprised if Gary goes anywhere near that kind of leverage. But with his small reduction in his AGQ position, he might take those funds and lever it 10 to 1 in SLV. AGQ is 2 to 1 over SLV, so having a small part of his AGQ funds working at 10 to 1 (or some number greater than 2 to 1) will give him a little more leverage without having to increase his margin.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Pima,
    I'm just playing devils advocate here, and concede that your two scenarios are very possible...even probable. I'm just hopeful that we aren't seeing the final run.

    ReplyDelete
  170. Thanks Catbird,

    I've been waiting patiently, the last few days for you to do this...

    WB

    ReplyDelete
  171. PimaC

    thanks, i dont follow those WSJ numbers, but i appreciate the angle. Could be one to watch in the future.

    ReplyDelete
  172. I guess that the market is playing with us...Once we will stop looking for a correction it will hit us....

    ReplyDelete
  173. nope - didn't buy SLW. I wanted it to close flat/green

    ReplyDelete
  174. ahain,

    What indicators do you use that tell you distribution in GLD and SLV is taking place?

    ReplyDelete
  175. I keep trying to figure out price levels that would freak out weak hands. Since gold is the driver of the whole PM sector, this chart by Dan Norcini is appropos:

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-kTZwYT7EQwE/Tax3U2P_qCI/AAAAAAAAAWY/5g8x3MBwL3Q/s1600/snapshot-636.png

    Seems to me if gold dipped down below $1480 it would run a lot of stops. It wouldn't bounce off 1480, of course, it would probably get to $1474 or something, just to really make people nervous.

    Then we could see it rocket to $1500 in the overnight, and the final leg of the C wave would be underway. Skeptics would think "oh, well, it broke $1500, a nice round number, so that's the top." Or maybe "oh, it finally broke $1500, it needs to take a breather for a few weeks." But it would just go vertical from there, leaving them to chase.

    Just one narrative.

    ReplyDelete
  176. Thank you, Catbird!

    I tried to do my part by following Jayhawk into miners -- 20% total -- but just couldn't bring myself to sidle up next to AGQ at highs of the day.

    (I did dream of descending elevators last night. Seemed only to hold for a few hours, though. Perhaps I can work toward skydiving tonight?)

    ReplyDelete
  177. Hilson Indicator update. (My PM buddy who flips out near bottoms and starts sending me irate emails. The strongest I've seen this indicator is when he is ready to sell all his metals as well. I'll keep you abreast.) :)

    Just got these 2 emails from him-

    1. selling half of SIL at 30
    have had enough with "stocks"
    totally f-ing rigged.......


    2. it's so unbelievably obvious that the pig bankers are shorting
    the mining etfs and not the individual stocks!!
    SIL down more than SLW and SVM

    GETTIN OUT ASAP!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  178. Jayhawk,
    You enjoy spending time with this guy?

    ReplyDelete
  179. He's a business partner, I've never met him live, but actually a good guy. Just a bit emotional, East Coast high strung type!

    ReplyDelete
  180. Anyone know how to get a long term futures chart in IB that strings the expiring contracts? So, for example, a two year chart for GC or SI

    ReplyDelete
  181. Jayhawk,

    LOL!! That is amazing, dude.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Jayhawk,

    Thats funny. Time to buy SIL, I guess. And hey, you did buy miners today.

    ReplyDelete
  183. Added just a handful of SLW, thought about GDX but in the end I was playing a video game and let it slide.
    Que sera sera, down day tomorrow I will buy, up day, I got other stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  184. If this is a runaway move then we've only got a few days to a couple weeks before the D-wave hits IMO. I will be looking for entry points for shorts within a week if we keep storming higher like this, with a top somewhere just under 50.

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.