We have moved!


Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Monday, April 4, 2011


I'll try to post something financially related later today or tomorrow but for now I'll do a comment cleaner and  let everyone know I did win my 9th national title over the weekend. I made new personal bests in both the Snatch (224 lbs.) and Clean & Jerk (266 lbs.) and won best lifter for the 50-54 age group.


  1. Congrats Gary! I am sooo impressed!
    Chem free too!

  2. Congratulations Gary. Great job!

  3. Nice one Gary
    Good luck today evetyone

  4. my account is up 7% so far :oD

  5. Everyone is a winner this morning if the bull did not shake you off.

  6. Sophia,

    If you ever visit Brussels, I would like to have coffee with you.


  7. Congratulations Gary, Welcome Home!

  8. AG is plain and simple a rocket ship.

  9. sounds good Christel!
    and Gary, well done, but you must be sore, no?

  10. Sophia, I will be in London June 15for the summer months.

  11. Congrats Gary. This is wonderful news.

  12. DG,

    Just to clarify, my comment was not addressed to you at all. I think we were typing parallely and I ended up posting a couple second after you! I saw your comment today morning when I logged in.

    I hope the blog stays clean going forward:)

  13. AG is a winner alright! Glad I added last week:)

  14. I sold my deep ITM GLD calls last week but did not roll them forward.

    Anybody adding here?

    I'm still heavily loaded, so I'm not scrambling to add. I would like to pick up a few deep ITM June or July calls this week, but I'm nervous about adding as gold approaches its all time high. Will it break out to new highs or will it pull back for a few days?

  15. sold my APRIL DITM calls last week, still have some May and June.

  16. New highs getting sprung all over the place.

  17. Ninth national title, wow! Congratulations...

  18. Congrats Gary. How many competed in your group?

  19. Gary and Gold know how to do it!
    All those other schmucks are just hot air. Hear that Ben!

  20. Great job this weekend Gary!
    Now let's if we can clean & jerk Gold above $1440 and hold Silver above $38.

  21. Great job this weekend Gary!
    Now let's see of we can clean & jerk Gold above $1440 and squeeze our cheeks together enough to hold Silver above $38.

  22. GARY

    In case you didnt read the last blog...CONGRATS! We're all proud of you , and I was rooting for both YOU and GOLD to get to new highs...thx for leading the charge!

    These stocks look REAL Good.
    For example, look at SVM on a 10 day/15 minute chart.
    Cup&Handle break out with Much larger volume. SWEET!

    And AG...8% at one point

  23. Pima,

    I've got some dry powder left too after re-balancing and working money between accounts. I would like to add some more, possibly even GLD calls as Gold is going to need to make a move sooner or later if we want the music to continue.

    But I'm going to wait for a confirmed breakout before adding, got more than enough to profit from a breakout.

  24. Pima,

    I started moving april calls to may on Friday and have a decent amount to put back to work. I am waiting for some weakness to add today. SLV is extremely over bought on the 5 min chart and hopefully we will see some weakness soon. I am adding on any weakness over the course of this week.

  25. Was going over statements this past weekend and noticed a chunk of AGQ buy confirmations around the $55 area from last summer. Still hold many of them, what a treat.

  26. The other consideration re adding is that we are starting to get deep into the daily cycle. But we could still have 8 days or so of generally higher prices until the cycle tops in what will likely be a very right translated cycle. So it's very possible that the next daily cycle low will come in at a price that is HIGHER than today's prices.

  27. Wow, Poly. Nice going on the AGQ. Yeah, what a treat!

  28. Pima,

    Can only thank Gary for the AGQ trades!

    I agree on the cycle, $1,440 should be the extreme lower support for the next cycle. We just need to punch through and I think it will get busy making big new highs in a flash. Even late in the cycle is enough time for gold to make good new highs. You would think with the cycle count on 12 (?) that it would have to happen early this week.

    Interested to hear Gary's thoughts on the cycle.

  29. Poly, Will you just call in the shares on those positions?

  30. If gold could close above 1443 today, that would be HUGE. New highs should come tomorrow or overnight.

  31. Hello,
    I am thinking of selling some of my AGQ to buy AG. Is there anything I should be wary of?
    Thanks for any caution,

  32. All: I may be bailing out of this blog, and sorry to leave. I have tried to be helpful to others as much as possible. SB's latest rant was even worse than the previous two, and I know he will do it again when given the chance. I have twice posted the following and he has not responded:

    "Can you just refrain from the inflammatory stuff even if you are 100% right about everything? If you are not making a political statement why not take down both "Shalom" and Israel [as your location]? And if you are making a political statement, it doesn't belong here. No one wants this to flare up again next month or the month after. I am suggesting a simple change that can prevent it---unless your desire is to goad people."

    He once said "It's a free country and I can post whatever the hell I want" which is true but also shows he has no interest in behaving. It's only a matter of time before I need to swim through the sewer again to find the useful comments here. To Alex, TZ, Poly, Wes, Vuvvy, and many other intelligent traders/investors I am forgetting to name, your presence has been great. Good luck and well done on riding this bull! I won;t say I'll never be back, but at least I have to wait until the nausea passes. It is sad that people like SB exist, but they do, by the millions. It is why the world is in such a mess right now. Everyone hating and blaming everyone else. And everyone feeling so justified in it. I am careful about who I hang around with, and this is just too gross. Best to everyone!

  33. Congratulations Gary on the win!!!!

    Should we look at iron as another rising metal to invest in??? :)

  34. T, I was thinking the same. Steel???

  35. DG,

    I'll be in touch soon.


  36. DG,

    I can certainly understand your sentiments.

    But, if the good guys all leave the field, the bad guys win by default.

    I think we owe Gary more than that. Let's stick around at least until we at least hear from Gary on the matter.

  37. AG, Please do not leave! You are a sure commodity to this blog

  38. I'm going long chicken burritos as that seems to be the magic formula. :)


    AG is unreal, glad I have some from Jan but not sure I would chase here out of AGQ Eamonn.

  39. OOps, DG, I have AG on the brain! LOL

  40. DG,

    It would be a big loss to this board if you stopped commenting. Speaking for myself, your advice has been invaluable. I hope others chime in and talk you out of leaving. Can you just ignore non-gold related issues?

  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

  42. DG ... you will be missed but I do not see that there is anything anyone can do ... There were multiple times I wanted to post yesterday but I held back because I know this is like politics and religion ... you absolutely cannot change a bigot ... the change has to come from within.
    I only wish other's would not give these people a voice by challenging them.
    Please do not respond to this as I am not referring to any particular bigot ... there are plenty on this board ... and I just ignore those comments.
    I look forward to hearing from you again when this all dies down ... as I know it will.

  43. Dg
    What a shame, i hope you keep your dialogue with Gary going off the blog you seam to have a good relationship.

    It,s just a shame if you get to the point where you feel that you can,t help fix the blog by being part of it.

  44. DG,

    Don't leave. I'm sure Gary values your analysis and insights as part of his reports.


    Lets stick to making a ton of money on metals regardless of the manipulators.

  45. Don't leave DG. You are wanted around here. I love hearing your opinions. But I can understand your disgust

  46. DG,

    I don't post here often, as I don't really know much and mostly like to sit back and learn from people like you. I understand your leaving, SB's remarks have been stomach churning at the least. The problem with leaving, is that it gives the SB's power over you, over all of us, by letting him take something good away. The best thing for everyone to do is just ignore his racist bigoted remarks, and not debate him, not encourage him, just ignore them. It is hurtful to read, but its just a small part of the larger, better thing that goes on here. I hope you come back. I enjoy your posts very much. Thank you for your contributions.


  47. DG, All the constant responses, including your latest, just keep it going. If there were no responders, it would drop immediately. I know you want Gary to somehow ban an anonymous poster, but is censorship a better road to travel. I think not. If you and everybody else would stop, it would be over.

  48. DG,
    You are one of the very valued people on this board. I know you understand that us losing you turns the whole thing into a double negative. And it doesn`t wind up turning into a positive. Please reconsider.

  49. DG,

    We should not give up. That would just hasten the detrioration of the blog. If Gary had been online during the last few days, I am sure he would have put a stop to this much quicker.

    Please stay on. Your contribution is much appreciated.

    Hope everbody will keep the focus of the blog on investing.

  50. DG

    i realy dont want so see you go. good tradeing and good tips. i know i am learning from you and others.
    i am most certine if you through all of us into a room we would not click together. we do have a common goal and that would be pm's
    a little banter is nice and we like shareing.
    i saw all the argueing and was sorry for it. i didnt jump in because i could jump on both sides for many reasons ( dont even try to read anything into that please)
    but i know for sure i cant figure out the politics of a 100 empoyee company. much less the world.. sigh ok im babbleing
    just dont stay away

  51. Hey, new sub here. I've got some dry powder and I'm ready to find it a new home. I've been reading your wise comments, but not too sure about my own calls yet. Can anyone share ideas about where to put it and when, if you had to use your funds? I know I'm a little late to the party but I don't want to miss the action. Thanks!

  52. Everyone who bought DG's book should ask for a refund. He's obviously too easily stressed out. His idea of stress relief is to flee to peaceful pastures.

  53. This could really be great cause the dollar is not even down today(too much)

    I have not been able too catch up on the comments, but I hope neither of you leave the blog. If need be you should just ignore each other.

  54. I appreciate the thoughts. Frankly I am being a bit selfish. For me it's not about the bad guys winning or losing in that he will stay a bigot regardless of whether I stay or go. They ruin lots of things. It's more for me as I am careful to try to hang out with people who are positive and beneficial. Or at least, when necessary, at least not negative and willfully hateful and soul-destroying. Yet my whole life has been one of trying to serve others in various ways, so I am torn here. Let me at least take some time away and see if the bad taste can come out of my mouth.

    And SB, for God's sake, just change your profile! Why not? Why attract such polarization? Don't ruin the blog. It's been great. Gary, can you help here?

  55. le fou,

    was just thinking the same thing

  56. Thanks Eamonn. Got some AGQ at 224 last week. Got some IAU and SLV before that as I have become slowly more trusting of Gary's ideas as I see you all doing well. I will check out AG. Thanks again.

  57. Welcome Kevin

    Just put it in AGQ or SIL immediately. Don't look at the daily wiggles, from this point in the Cwave you might make 35 to 50 % percent before we exit positions.

  58. DG

    I have your email and will keep in touch , but it'd be better if you'd stay and post with us. I am still away and will email you later, but I have to tell you a little story...

    I was ,for 10 yrs, just doing all my learning and trading by myself. I read NO blogs (still dont,I read a yahoo blog for 2 days and hated it...clouded my thinking)so I took a few courses in 2005 and did things from experience,many losses/many gains.

    Found Gary through a "Toby Conner" article on Kitco,signed up to learn HIS "cycles"in Aug/Sept 2010..then found this blog. LOVED THIS BLOG!
    I read without writing for 2 months,then saw the quality of investors and wanted to add to it. I have learned from everyone something...

    I admit that wading through the conversations I missed the past 3 days was difficult, but leaving you may take away something positive with you . Its your choice , but you'll be m missed(and you'll feel selfish when you make a killing on the D-Wave, because you promised you'd help me to improve at my biggest weakness, going short ;)

    DAVID (with the bug icon)..same for you.

  59. DG, a lot of folks, including me, enormously value your contributions to the blog. Please don't let one or two pathetic individuals be the last ones standing.

    Gary, me thinks it's time to exercise some leadership on this issue. IMHO you've been pretty low-key about this kind of stain on your blog in the recent past.

    All that said, congrats Gary on an amazing achievement this weekend.

  60. Apparently while I was away there was some big political discussion on the blog that offended many.

    First off I would really prefer to keep the blog about financial stuff (well other than a brief moment of glory on my recent lifting accomplishment).

    Blogger doesn't allow me to ban IP addresses. I would have to delete comments as they were posted.

    I will do that if anyone is using profanity. But I just don't have time to sit around and police the blog all the time. I don't even have time to read through all the comments anymore.

    So I will just ask that we keep this blog respectable and stick to investing or economic topics from now on.

  61. Haggerty, thanks for the info. I may follow the AGQ advice from you and Eamonn as I think with the limited time I have now, I won't benefit from the time it takes to check out AG's financials on my own. Double thanks.

  62. Gary: Thanks for posting. SB: Agreed?

    Le Fou: You don't know the difference between stress and conscious decision. Stress creates compulsive behavior. I would not leave because "I can't stand it" which would be a stress response. Leaving because it is gross(having considered leaving for weeks---since the last racist tirade) is a choice. If I choose not to hang out with such people, is that evidence of stress? I make such choices every day. I can hang out with complete miscreants if I have to and handle it fine, but I generally choose not to.

    Alex: Fair enough. Let me let some time pass, once this current little back-and-forth is over.

  63. If you do go, all the best to you DG, thanks for your time and effort on the blog.

  64. F.W.I.W. to anyone...

    AXU has a nice chart pattern with swelling volume coming in today as it approaches the break out point.

    Up 6% at this point today. ( I own)

  65. To be clear the recommendation for Kevin is AGQ etf and not Arian Silver correct? I own both.

  66. Gold just made a sixtuplet top at 1440, 7th time is a charm :)

  67. SB,

    There are so many forums on the Internet with like-minded people for you to express your views. This is not one of them.

    Why not:
    1. Change your name (Ben Bernanke would be a good start),

    2. Remove the Israel loction, and

    3. Stop the anti-Jewish remarks.

    Make as much fun as you want about Bernanke just not about his religion.

    Then we perhaps can find some common ground on the real reason we are here. Why corrupt the board.

    As for TommyD, well I cannot imagine he is rational enough to even comprehend what I'm discussing so we an just ignore his cult-like posts.

    But you and I (and many ther intreste parties) have much to contribute and why waste that talen and harm our returns when there are other places for you views.

    I think I can speak for many on this board that we can let the past go if you can do these simple things and we can all just move on.

    Trying to put and end to this in a peaceful way. The ball is really in your court.

    Hope you make the right decision.


  68. Gary, when you have your own server, you will be able to ban by IP address.

    And congrats on your win this weekend!

  69. The server is just for the premium website. The blog will stay where it is.

  70. damn steven, cut the crap
    sb hasn't posted anything since yesterday and Gary just asked to stick to investing.
    if you have any respect for Gary and the rest of us, let it be.

  71. Blogger aaronpalang said...

    Gold just made a sixtuplet top at 1440, 7th time is a charm :)

    April 4, 2011 8:13 AM

    I laughed..out loud :)

    Out for the day..cya good people of Garys blog!

  72. Oh no DG, please don't leave.
    I am learning so much with all you guys and you are great and patient to answer some of the silliest questions!
    It is a sham that because of few people with issues, the best are off...
    SB, I didn't even finished reading your comments, they shouldn't be on this blog anyway, and I hope that Gary agrees!!

  73. AXU may finally breakout now that it has this triple top going on.

  74. Ahh...

    In future, if necessary, you can run a blog off a dedicated server, too.

    More work, though.

    I suggest people do as I do. There is no ignore button here, but there *is* a scroll bar on your browser. There are a few people that I skip every time, and this weekend, I managed to read just twenty posts out of hundreds. Just a couple key words and I could see it was pointless to read further. So I didn't.

  75. folks this has gone too far.

    this is the place to make money from precious metals

    all other discussion has no right to be here

  76. Steven and DG, Let it go. Puhleeeeeeez! I now realize you guys want the last word, but accept it won't work.

  77. Gary ... here's a suggestion ... can you not appoint a few individuals that you trust as administrators of this blog ... basically giving them the power to delete what may be considered questionable content.
    I think there must be a least a few people who can trust to do this.

  78. That is amazing Gary! Conratulation!!

  79. DG,

    Please don't leave...your posts are invaluable.

  80. anyone know what's up with GPL? it's been lagging...

  81. Avann,
    Absolutely not. Freedom of speech is guaranteed in this country and on my blog.

    I will only delete comments with profanity. But I do ask that we keep the blog to financial and economic topics please.

    I think I've earned enough respect to request that and I would hope everyone would honor that request.

  82. Gary (or anybody)

    Are you expecting silver to "fill the gap" by moving down and bouncing off $38?

  83. Well said Gary ... I understand that completely.

  84. DG, I hope also that you will reconsider leaving.I love to learn from you and many others also on this blog.You will be missed if you do leave.

  85. Thank goodness for the c-wave; otherwise blood may be shed on this blog!

    This week some may have missed a discussion thread regarding which would do better during the last part of a c-wave: miners or the price of silver. Now I believe the problem is in the definition of "last part of a c-wave." I always thought it meant the final days. We may be a month away from the top, or more.

    Is there really any hard, consistent evidence for either?

  86. I know ... censorship is even worse ... it was getting rather tiresome reading all the sewage though :(

  87. DG,

    I do know the difference between a conscious decision and a conscientious decision. The first is based on a self-referential internal awareness, and the second is based on principle. You seem to be all about you. You're unable to let one bigot (as you judge him) go, and just deal with the real people here. You seem to have high control needs. If you can't make SB change, then you're taking your ball and leaving. Seems petulant to me. If your hang up with SB doesn't cause you stress, then more power to you.

    Best of luck,
    Le Fou

  88. GPL still has it's hangover from secondary done a week or two back. I think it should resolve positvely this week.

    Own it, but have a 4.15 stop on.

  89. This comment has been removed by the author.

  90. It's very sad that the hatred of one person can poison something that has been such a good thing for so many. DG and David, I will miss your wisdom and your insights. I completely understand your decision to leave but I hope you will consider returning at some point.

  91. DG/Steven

    Would you two like a little cheese with your whine?

  92. redwine

    you're gonna kill me

  93. DG, I hope you return. Will miss your insights and intelligent conversation.

  94. DG,

    Stress is everywhere. Our bodies have a certain capacity to adapt and withstand it. Some people have a greater adaptability then others.

    Whether we avoid stress by choice or by some inborn reaction we are still avoiding it...

    Social defeat refers to losing a confrontation among conspecific animals, or any kind of hostile dispute among humans, in either a dyadic or in a group-individual context, generating very significant consequences in terms of control over resources, access to mates and social positions.

    By definition this public discussion has been a source of 'stress' for you and the rest of us for that matter. It's not a choice..... Social issues can also cause stress, such as struggles with conspecific or difficult individuals and social defeat...

    So, i'm not sure where you're going with your ball but why not stay and play with the rest of us?

  95. What is up with Gold. Everytime it approaches 1440, it catches a cold:( Hope it gets through it very soon.

  96. DG

    I know you will be back soon...as soon as it dawns on you that bigots are really the littlest of people, short of understanding and craving of attention. Best to you on riding this C wave with rest of us.

  97. kmisak,

    As for metals vs stocks, TZ has made the point several times that the metals are better during the end of the C wave.

    He's usually not wrong about that sort of thing, and I'm taking his word for it.

  98. Gary, you said "Freedom of speech is guaranteed in this country and on my blog."

    Just as an fyi, on another widely followed trading blog I subscribe to, someone asked this morning for a recommendation on other good blogs to follow, because good ones "are so hard to find." Despite all of your good work, and all the money I've made as a result of you, at this point I'd be too embarrassed to recommend your blog after the insidious, hateful stuff that was posted this weekend.

    I really think there are limits to "freedom of speech" (e.g., the old example of yelling fire in a crowded theatre), and you're going to lose a lot of good contributors if you decline to exercise leadership here. jmho.

  99. the battle between the 'turds and the 'tards rages on I see. You people have done nothing but empower each other with your continual rebuttals. Anyone with half a brain could figure that out. Havent any of you heard of Turn the Other Cheek ... ?

    At least if you all were slightly interesting with your rhetoric, but frankly, to date, none have you has said anything remotely interesting, except perhaps to each other.

    I usually wouldnt comment, but you are all impacting what Gary does with your inane whining. I want Gary to focus on what we pay him to do, and in case you have forgotten, its to focus on his cycles and not to referee the battle of the dimwits.

    As to the rest of you, grow a pair, and like the wiggles you ignore on a daily basis, do the same here ... it isnt that difficult, i am sure most of you ignore noise in your life on a daily basis ...

  100. Gold Silver Troll, GPL went from 2 to 5. Wouldn't some consolidation seem normal. We have gotten real spoiled!

  101. SB,
    Would you mind as a favor to me and for the harmony of the blog changing your name?


  102. Gary,

    never thought you'd do that
    but well, if it makes the crybabies happy...

  103. "What's in a name? A rose by any other name still smells as sweet"

    -William Shakespeare

  104. Kevin, welcome new sub. Go to Gary's post for change in portfolio investments. As you can see many are in AGQ. Good start there, just see if you can get in at a day low.

  105. I agree on AXU, also been lagging. Revett is also looking good for that move to the AMEX.

  106. Steven,

    You stated about me: "As for TommyD, well I cannot imagine he is rational enough to even comprehend what I'm discussing so we an just ignore his cult-like posts."

    Jesus, Mary and Joseph! Catholicism and my Faith, you consider CULT-LIKE?

    You say all you want about me but I will defend my Lord and Savior and shout out his good teachings as all true Christians are instructed to do.

    God bless everyone here with health, prosperity and wisdom.

    Gold and silver are on a run fore-sure.

    I've been watching this board like a movie. Why are these guys complaining? Another 2 lbs I guess! You and your wife have a winning book and a major business going. Thanks for what you are doing. You are helping me and others here. Stick around as you know I will have questions for you soon. :)

  107. Gary, DG will not like the one he comes up with next any better. I will bet a stack of burritos on that.

  108. DG

    Take a break, but please don't leave. Your imput has been appreciated greatly!

    Yes, sometimes this past weekend comments on this blog have been horrific. Don't get swept in. I think advantage was taken of Gary's absence.

    I especially want you to know that I have enjoyed your book immensely.
    It refreshes so many concepts I have followed and tried to practice through the years. Plus there was new information and great exercises in breathing and meditation that I am trying to incorporate into my life.

    I have bought three copies now and have shared them with friends and family.

    Must run...Yoga class starts soon.



  109. David and DG, take some time off, but come back as we enjoy your input and will miss you and many of us do need your insight and experience. Please consider that others here highly value your input and a lot of us need it!

  110. " Eamonn said...
    my account is up 7% so far :oD"

    what do you have in your account?

  111. New words for Le Fou's vocabulary

    conspecific (n) Of the same species. First use 1859

    dyadic (adj) Referring to dyads or two individuals maintaining a sociologically significant relationship.

    Thanks New York,
    Le Fou

  112. (on topic)

    Does anyone know what the criteria will be for "predicting" our end of C wave exit point?

    Will we have stops raised that get hit? Will there be technical indicators painting a picture?

    Also, will we typically exit intraday or have to do at the open?

  113. oa92000, I have AG and AGQ :o)

  114. Hot Rod, good suggestions for Gary to layout on the premium site, which he probably does as time nears closer and he has a better idea as to how things are coming together.

  115. if SB wants to call himself skinhead or anything else that is his choice! It is his profile and he should be allowed to write whatever he wants there. If you dont want to read it dont open it.

  116. James makes an excellent point. If this site is to develop then moderators are needed.

    Let's be honest, we come here to make money. I get excited when someone like Steven shows up with relevent valuable insights, but this is countered by reading 100 posts about racism, which is a complete waste of my time

    At the moment the premium site top dog but this section losing it's appeal rapidly

  117. Gary,
    For my 2 cents as a subscriber I agree with Peters comments above and I agree with your original comment on the issue and the free speech response to Avann.

    Its not all that hard to ignore off topic stuff and I am intelligent enough to filter out what I want. Its childish to put you in the middle as a referee.

  118. Congratulations, Gary! We are all very proud of you. And, as always, thanks for helping us keep our cool during the swings in the market.


  119. SVM is in the same position as AXU. Knocking on a triple top breakout.

  120. Everyone be patient as I feel SB will respect Gary's wishes.

  121. This gold block at 1440 is utterly ridiculous. At some point the USD will have to start pulling back hard, and thats probably the only chance gold will have to over run the shorts. Shorting at 1440 has been profitable during the entire month of March.

  122. Aaron,

    Be patient, it takes that type of sentiment across the board to launch through major resistance levels, few people stay the course.

    But once through the resistance, its all clean, fresh unrestricted space up there.

  123. DG
    Feel the need to add my voice to the chorus that hope you don't leave. You discrbed that possible action as selfish, but I can see it is not. It is a professional consideration for the people you work with now and at the budding hf. Some bs entanglement here is just not acceptable in either of those worlds, especailly now that everyone knows who you are. I sincerely hope you do not leave, but if you must, best of wishes...

  124. You guys remember a couple months ago a guy that was posting as Tim&Jeneanne? He came along with some insane economic theory that started as discussion(which we all benefit,learn and grow from) and it turned into it`s own living, breathing, growing monster. After a while, the flap would settle down and we could get back to PMs and there was harmony throughout the land. Than T&J shows, throws in his 2 cents, bails out, and it`s `Big trouble in little china` all over again! The junkyard dog was kicking his own a$$!! And the part to me that was so amazing is it wasn`t just regular people, but our best and brightest.Like watching a cancer feed on itself. Not to condone any side of this arguement, but this beast can`t stay alive if it doesn`t get fed.

  125. Bob LH,

    Have you pulled the trigger on MNEAF yet? Bought it at $2.85 but thinking of swapping it now.

  126. Aaron, It is of course when those shorts get complacent that breakouts occur on huge volume as all those people cover up.

  127. As for the racist and bigotry arguments, ignore them and get on with it people, after all this is a free and open forum frequented by hundreds of completely anonymous contributors.

  128. Anyone have any thoughts on how this move might play out intraday?

    I don't usually try to play the wiggles but I guess I must have gotten a little bored wading through last week and if there's a chance of closing strong, thought I'd risk some leverage, just for the day.

  129. In case everyone hasn't figured it out yet, we've gotten spoiled by the bull so that when it's not jumping 2-3% a day the topics on the blog tend to turn to some other area to find some action.

    How about in these circumstances the traders post trading ideas so we can keep busy instead of arguing about worthless topics.

    Alright I'm off to climb some cliffs.

  130. Bob Loves H

    You breifly mentioned a put stratigy on agq for the d-way. I am trinkering with that idea currently on zsl (in a very small way). I know it's preverse and there are pitfalls, but would you care to comment.

  131. Vonda,

    It's not a wiggle day, very flat and tight range bound today.

  132. Thanks Poly, it really is just a waiting game.
    Brian, I'm eagerly waiting for it, cant wait to see gold take off like a rocket and exceed that 1% cap it runs into.
    Gary, you cant be serious. Gold RARELY moves up more than 1% in 1 day. Moves over 2% are even more rare, yet I expect just that, a 2% move when 1440 falls for good.

  133. Thanks, Poly!
    Guess I'll go "climb rocks" too then . . .

  134. I haven't bought, or traded, or even cared what gold does other than how it drives the rest of the precious metal market in over a year.

    Silver on the other hand has had many 3+% days.

  135. Good plan, Gary.

    I'm off to knead some bread, then bake it, then ride my bicycle.

    As far as gold goes, the breakout seems to be on hold at least for a little while longer. But longer term nothing has changed. 1600+ looks likely to me.

  136. Guys,

    This is a story that I think will cause the government to have to spend even more billions, and thus will impact us all.

    It takes 15 minutes to watch, but is better than most horror films.


  137. Silverman, I bought Minera, and intend to hold until the D wave, only AXU looks like it has more potential, but I own that one, as well.

    W, I like puts over calls on the double ETF's because the decay and volatility will be incredible. Calls you fight the decay and vol crush, IMO.

  138. Religion -- creating division, distraction and death for over 3,000 years!

    Congratulations Gary.

    Looking for a squeeze here as silver shorts wrestle with the reality of breakout taking shape.

  139. GPL is not participating in this lift. Anyone have a pro or a con on it? TIA

  140. Good idea, Gary and Pima! Let's all go get some exercise and set away from the computer.

  141. Kevin,
    I really like how well AGQ is going up, but it can go down just as hard. My 3 favorites are AGQ, SLW and GLD. I am sure others can give you a few ideas on miners. I am staying out of those for the C wave.

  142. Reverse H&S pattern on gold. Looking good.

    I thought we would get the break and surge last week, but it appears it will be early this one.

  143. DG,
    Please stay on the board..I've learnt a lot from you about trading both technical and mental stuff...you're inputs mean a lot to almost everyone on the board..

    maybe we can all just ignore anything that is not trading related...i.e.stop feeding

    Same goes to you...we have a great community here and would hate to see you and DG leave the board

  144. online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703410604576216830941163492.html

    Retirement nest eggs cracking.
    Inflation starts to destroy everything.

  145. Wow! I have received a bunch of private emails and a loot of postings here. I assure you I was not grandstanding, but just questioning whether I wanted to deal with things here. Several people wrote to point out that leaving was selfish because there are not that many real traders here and I can contribute. Fair enough. The timing is good as I am traveling and teaching this week, so will take a natural break. I am truly sorry for anything I may have done to add to the nonsense here. You kind of want to stand up against these things, but you don't want to feed them. I posted very little but it was hard watching others fall into the trap. Anyway...onwards.

    Am still short PHM. This may be a great one as it is already acting much worse than the market. I posted at 7.62 and have my mental break-even stop in place. If housing deteriorates (which I believe it will) they may go all the way. I will post trading ideas when there is not much to do in the PM's...next week or so. Thanks to everyone who wrote. Neutral on SPX. We are still very stretched, but the printing has continued to override normal historical patterns. I agree with Gary that the SPX is just not worth dealing with. See you guys later. Have a great week!

  146. I moved my funds from GPL to Revett last week.

    Rubicon and HL are two that I would stay away from (bad management). We will have to see if GPL makes the trifecta but I am on the sidelines.

    AG = All Good

  147. blammo, you reckon AG will do the business during the c-wave? Better than AGQ?

  148. DG,

    i'm out a here.
    you remind me of my nephew, he's 8 though.
    in terms of learning something about investments SB is ten times the man you are.
    not being capable of standing up to comments and calling in the teacher's help is so lame it disgusts me.

  149. blammo,
    nice move. I've been long Revett since it was in the 0.30's. There have been leaks that they'll be grtting their AMEX listing this month!

  150. guy:'SB is ten times the man you are.
    not being capable of standing up to comments and calling in the teacher's help is so lame it disgusts me."

    It's one thing to watch Fight Club. It's another to support people's unsocial behavior. Or have you not just witnessed the barbaric behavior and language in Afghanistan due to a fool's burning of a religious philosophy book?

    The focus is on Mammon, here. All the rest of the postings are off topic, right? Or do you want to fight about that, also?

  151. Wes,

    Do you know the date of that 60 minutes clip you posted?

    Seems there was talk of "mortgage gate" months ago and now it's all blown over. If 60 min aired this show recently, then it hasn't. If it's an old show, I wouldn't give it much importance because once again the banksters have very likely figured out a way out of the mess they created. They've got all the money, they can hire very expensive lawyers, and they have their connections in high places. Seems very likely that this will end up being another case of the taxpayer footing the bill.

  152. OK, been doing some reading on AG. Anybody have a realistic target for a top? Looks like they have the most exposure to the metal itself than any other miner and some nicely growing financials.

    Seems as if there are two general camps here regarding this wave, those who are pretty speculative, into junior miners and such like ag with maybe their most conservative investment being agq or slv, and then on the other hand those who are a little more conservative, holding gld (i like being long iau since it has lower fees), slv, and maybe slw or agq as their most speculative investments. Is that an on target or off target assessment?

    Thanks as always.

  153. I could use some advice from any of the knowledgeable traders we have here:
    I have some April 195 and 205 AGQ calls.
    Obviously up pretty well now. What should I do with them? Take the profit? roll them? wait a few days? Thoughts would be appreciated. TIA

  154. Kevin, I have Vestor vest and AG is ranked #7 out of the 8000 stocks they follow :)

  155. Dan,

    Run with them. We're in the timing band for more upside between now and expiration.

    Obviously these were a gamble when you bought them :) Might as well milk them now, IMO.

  156. AGQ is like 24th out of 8000 stocks

  157. traderlady, how do you find vectorvest ?

  158. vestorvest.com They do give some free analysis

  159. Dan, the delta on the options you cite are nearly .90 which means for every $ 1.00 AGQ goes up, your option goes up $0.90. Fairly close to $ 1.00 which unless there is a big drop in price, means you just track the stock with your option.

    However, we are now under two weeks to expiration, so any larger drop will put a big dent in your options.

    Probably best to roll them to May, maybe even June. Depending on your comfort level and how much cash you have to throw at these.
    Perhaps even take some profit out?

  160. traderlady, I mean, how do you find it? Are you a subscriber?

  161. Eamon: yes, but you can get a free 5 weeks as a newbie

  162. traderlady, does it help you a lot in making money? Is it really worth the subscription?

  163. Freedom of speech doesn't mean where ever and whenever one wants...

    At a set of forums I've used for over 15 years (Silicon Investor), it's perfectly acceptable to enforce on-topic posting. If one doesn't (and some continues to remain disruptive), then all lose. Many valuable threads collapsed which had been set up unmoderated.

    This has been unmoderated for a long time, and I think it will settle down. But it is clear there's a powder keg sitting under a lot of people, something to be expected during a Depression/K-Winter cycle.

  164. Back on topic. For all the malaise of PM shares and gold's inability to break past 1440 (so far), my PF's continue slowly to climb the wall of worry. I think this behavior portends some great action soon.

  165. Poly: "
    Run with them. We're in the timing band for more upside between now and expiration. "

    Poly, if we were 8 days out, would you offer the same advice?

    At what point in day counts on this cycle will you say that at that point it is best to take the profit?

    And then are you looking after that at the backside of the cycle, where you stand back and wait for the cycle bottom to re-enter?

  166. EAMonn, Everyone is different as far as strategy and they give you hundreds. It is worth the 9.95 to see if it is for you. Much to learn so be prepared if you try it.

  167. Poly and Romeo,
    Thank you for the input, I do appreciate it.

  168. Gary, when you have a dedicated server, will the site have the same name as now? If so, it will take from a few hours to a few days for the new IP address to propagate to the DNS servers on the Internet. It would be useful if you posted the IP address here so that people can find the site prior to their local ISP's DNS server finding out about the change.

  169. Doesn't the run up today, and the overnight gap (in US traded markets, including the NY Pit), need to be filled?

    This is a breakaway gap. So far, every gap of this magnitude has been filled.

    Why is this time different?

    The normal gap fill is within 24 to 72 hours. There has been a time when the gap stayed open for about two weeks, and then, pow.

    In the cycle scenario, it might be that this gap will continue until the backside of this daily cycle.

    The bottom of the gap is the top of Friday's trading.

  170. Dan,

    Poly knows options, he says stick with them.

    Just know that they will go up and down in value pretty much as AGQ does. Also, you will want to either sell them or exercise them no later than April 14 (which is just one week from this Thursday) since OPEX is on the 15th this month.

    The only problem I can see with rolling them is the wide spreads on these options. But that's obviously your only option (ahem...) if you want to continue at this level of investment and you don't want to exercise them.

    (I would consider exercising only if the price that you can sell them for is less than the current price of AGQ minus your strike price.)

  171. Dan, If you count the days in the cycle we are on day 13 of a cycle that has historically lasted 21 days but lately has been lasting 25 or more. If you check it out you will find that the cycles magically bottom around that expiration period.

    I try to not over stay my welcome with options. It usually costs me money.

  172. Wes,

    Sorry for my lame post asking for the date. Was watching you tube directly, but when I go to your original link, I see the date was April 4, 2011. That's recent. So there's probably more to hit the fan on this and yes, it will affect us here and probably everyone in the US.

  173. Just checking in on my accounts, and I'm not doing as well as this morning. Seems a couple of the miners have a slow leak in 'em!

  174. AGQ is outperforming SIL massively. I had big buys on 2/28, where I picked up SIL for 26.81, and AGQ for 186.84.

    Since then AGQ has increased 25% while the ugly SIL has done about 8-9%!. What a shlt box!

    Does anyone see this trend reversing towards the end of this C-wave?

  175. Interesting how the dollar has quietly rallied back up to around $76. Looks like Silver thinks the wheels are about to fall off the dollar and gold can't decide. Will be interesting to see how this week plays out. Gold needs to get over the $1440 hump already.

  176. I looked back and also had some good buys when SIL was much cheaper, and my cost average recently is probably around 14% lower than where it trades today. That said AGQ is outperforming SIL by +10%!

    BUT when silver increases in price the miners profit margins should increase exponentially, yet this is not yet reflecting in the silver miners in general (for some specific miners it is).

    Is Bob Chapman right? See next post.

  177. In the 60 trading days this year, the HUI has dropped at least 7 points off its opening price 25 times, or 42% of the time, including 15 times, or 25% of the time, when it has dropped by 10 or more points. This as silver has appreciated by 20%.

    On those 31 down days, the HUI's average decline from its highs has been 14 points, or 3%. What is being done to share investors by government is criminal. The HUI has fallen by at least 1% from its opening 41 times, or 67% of the time.

  178. Speculate as you may. But at the bare minimum this is at least entertaining. It is also a confidence builder for PM bulls:

    s we have noted for some time corrections in gold and silver have been short-lived lasting only for a few days or a week and then they rally strongly in spite of major paper suppression by the “President's Working Group on Financial Markets.” The elitists have to be scratching their heads. They raise margin requirements repeatedly and they have little effect. Today's players don't buy 5 or 10 contracts; they buy in the hundreds and thousands. In this exercise in futility the main players increased their net short positions by almost 30 million ounces in just months. The gold and silver suppression cartels have some major problems. They cannot cover without driving prices higher, particularly in silver. Our guess is they'll go to default between $50 and $60 silver and pay off in cash, as silver races higher. The longs will, of course, get screwed and the action could take out silver and gold trading on the Comex and LBMA in London, and wipe out the options, derivatives and GLD and SLV. We'll see what happens, but it won't be good for the elitists. For some time Comex members have been paying large bonuses in cash to keep longs from taking delivery and now we are seeing growing premiums on funds such as the Sprott Silver Fund reflecting a $45.00 or $50.00 silver price. We believe that the ETF, SLV, has less than 30% of its inventory in physical silver and that is why it trades at a negative premium. They hold options, futures and derivatives and if Morgan goes into default, which we believe they must, SLV and for that matter GLD, may both be out of business and their shareholders left high and dry and broke. A word to the wise should be sufficient. SLV and GLD are frauds. On the Comex sellers are paying 30% to 80% premiums for long contract holders not to take delivery. This is certainly not normal. JPM and HSBC may not pay off long silver contracts in cash. They may just default and you may just become an unsecured creditor. These two banks do not have the silver. It is rumored that JPM is naked short 3.3 billion ounces of silver or 4 times annual silver output. At today's silver prices JPM could be offside more than $60 billion. Those are the figures we've been using for some time. $60 silver means no more JPM. That is why we believe they will default.

  179. More to the entertainment (better than twiddling your thumbs :). This post should actually be read prior to the other large one.

    "We have generally given you one side of a difficult equation. The other side is who will be the winners and the answer is commodities, gold and silver. In light of the very large short positions held by HSBC and JPM, and the fact little effort is being made to cover, many investors have been buying silver and taking delivering. That has led to higher silver prices, which puts these banks into a loss position in the billions of dollars. We are told as a result of being in this position HSBC, advised a major silver producer to sell their inventory so the sale would suppress prices and allow HSBC to do some short covering. The company was the large Mexican producer Penoles and the driving force in the sale was investor Carlos Slim, who is a front man for the elitists.

    Talk abounds that India, Mexico and China all may head toward the re-monetization of silver. It could be all three countries may retire some of their bank notes and substitute silver coins for future use. This would line up with recent agreements between China, Russia and India trading in their own currencies rather than dollars.

    On another note, this activity in silver can only make one imagine that gold backing may come to these currencies in the near future. We can assure you that they will not accept any new world reserve currency that is not 25% gold backed."

    Bob Chapman International Forecaster

  180. Silver eater, outlaw naked shorting, and a lot of the behaviors we see in stocks and indicies would end. Naked shorting to me is a perversion of a free market, designed to be an abusive tool used by the well connected to shake down the non-chosen few.

    It used to be that it would eventually fail against fundamentals, but with the advent of extorting taxpayers into making them whole again, it will not end so long as the gov't exists in today's form.

  181. Ben I completely agree. The whole system is a f'in joke.

    Gamble as you wish, you don't have to pay proper taxes on profits, and the public will share your losses with you. Win-win 100% of the time for the well connected elitists.

  182. Slumdog, I'm assuming Dan is fully aware of the risks. He is obviously "playing with fire" being in AGQ options, so close to expiration. They obviously were not purchased "in the money" :)

    But that said, based on the cycle count and our lingering below the all time high levels, there is a good chance we burst into new highs any day and go for a good 5-7 day run. This would be very profitable for Dan. On the flip side, any new weakness here and I would be out in a flash.

  183. slw still waiting 50 dma to catch up..


Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.