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Thursday, December 15, 2011

GOLD IS ON THE VERGE OF MOVING INTO THE BUBBLE PHASE OF THE BULL MARKET

I know that during a correction of the magnitude we are seeing right now it seems more like the gold bull is dead than on the verge of moving into what I expect will be one of the greatest parabolic moves in history.

However, all of the conditions necessary to launch the bubble phase are now in place. Gold is in the process of putting in an intermediate degree bottom. That bottom, which is only days away if it didn't already happen today, is going to be the single greatest buying opportunity, probably of the decade.

Gold sentiment is at multiyear lows. Retail traders that bought at $1900 have gotten wiped out. The media is full of stories calling for the death of the gold bull. Institutional traders from John Paulson, George Soros, and Dennis Gartman have all gotten knocked off the bull.

Breadth in the universally hated mining sector is back down to levels that have only been exceeded during the crash in 2008.



This sector has consolidated for so long that no one believes in mining stocks anymore. This is exactly the same sentiment that was prevalent in the silver market in the fall of 2010.

All the conditions are in place to launch the next stage of the secular bull market.

Up until now my expectation has been that we would see gold consolidate for probably the better part of a year before the next C-wave breaks out to new highs.


However, the scenario that is unfolding in the CRB and dollar indexes has me wondering if the gold bull isn’t going to start evolving much faster than I originally expected. Let’s just say that if I am correct and the dollar is on the verge of topping then we are probably going to see a much shorter consolidation than originally expected. Gold could launch much more quickly out of the B-Wave bottom than I expected and move to new all-time highs as early as the next intermediate cycle.


As a matter of fact I’m pretty confident that if the dollar turns down it is going to trigger the beginning of the third and final, bubble phase, in the gold bull market. 

The public is already starting to become aware of the gold bull. All we need at this point to start the flood is for gold to recover quickly from this selloff. If gold quickly shoots back up and tags, or penetrates that big psychological $2000 number I expect it will be the siren call that draws the public into the bull market. And it is the public coming into a market that triggers the bubble phase.

During this phase of the bull I expect we will see the normal ABCD wave pattern break down as gold starts to accelerate into what will almost certainly be the most incredible parabolic advance, maybe in history. By the fall of 2014 I expect we will see gold somewhere between $7,000 and $20,000 an ounce.

I think tonight's premium report is important enough that I'm going to reopen the $1 trial subscription for two days. You will have access to the entire site for the next two days for the price of one George Washington. You can either keep your subscription and it will convert to a monthly at the end of the trial period or cancel it and you won't be charged another dime. Either way you will get access to a report that I think is important for every gold investor to read.

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386 comments:

  1. I have been stressing for months that C-waves are born on the 275 and 300dma, and that this bull has morphed into a buff bull...I believe we are close enough to the 275dma with today's new low (of which I mentioned that I added to my position) to give birth to a shinny new C-wave advance, and I mentioned to Eamonn yesterday that, because of the behavioral change in gold, I believe gold may blast right out of this ICL and shorten the life of any consolidation stage that typically follows a parabolic move. If gold is to reverse and exibit weakness signaling possibly another failed daily cycle I would expect it will occur at the 150dma, and the dollar will have began to rally again, but with this divergence in the True Strength Index and the extreme sentiment in the dollar that may be out of the question. Lets see if its time for gold to get busy pushing up to my $2300 target now that it may have bottomed near my 300dma target. Brace yourselves my friends :)

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  2. SB is first
    Now that is a first.

    I see the bullish% stayed flat today. That is a very good sign!!

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  3. Buckle up !!!

    Look at gold phutures. Up 20$ and there are no sellers. Feels like you are walking on a war field where the battle just ended.

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  4. By the way I think Soros quit because he said he has enough money already :)

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  5. Now I want to add to early, as you said before WW I've got to hold the line as the enemy stampedes, then when breaks the MA, add on. GOt to stick to my plans, cause if fails can get spiked. Still like my buys in auy,gg today.

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  7. Anyone feel the mining shares will outperform finally? I've been rather foolish and acquired much more miners vs bullion over the years. Overall am up but this year cut those profits at the knees. These last few weeks have been some of the hardest to stomach. Hold or convert to bullion now given Gary's forecast?

    So glad I found this site, a real beacon in the night. Thanks to all.

    Sooth

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  8. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!

    Ba Ba Ba Booya Skeet Daddy! ;-)

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  9. Sooth

    I sure hope so. They have been ignored so long. Maybe Jim Cramer can do a buy buy buy.:-)

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  10. The bread freaked out the premium site.

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  11. I just started making bread, and I`m already being called Betty Crocker. Might be the richest guy in town(small town :)

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  12. Just my opinion about the bread comment, because we have a big family and a lot of mouths to feed.

    If you equate the housing bubble to the gold bubble, the dollar didn't really move the price of houses, but housing prices inflated dramatically over 10 years, so gold could continue to inflate and the dollar could remain steady.

    If you shop for groceries, you know that the price of beef and chicken has increased about 30% over the past few years, milk fluctuates. At CostCo you can get two 1.5 lb loaves of whole grain white bread for $3.49. We buy this every single week, and have for 20 years. The least it has ever been is about $2.25 for two loaves, if it increases another 50% it will still only be $5.20 for two loaves. If wholesale prices increase 50% in two years we will have far more than 43 million people on food stamps.

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  13. A quick tip about JAG. The stock has pulled back heavily along with the sector since an acquisition rumor merged in November. Today they announced that JPM has been retained for the "strategic review process".

    This could be explosive especially if the sector turns around here.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Jaguar-Mining-Provides-Update-cnw-1076317276.html?x=0

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  14. Of course "the dollar" moved the price of houses. Monetary inflation post 1980 is engineered not to impact CPI because this starts a wage-price spiral and the associated stagflation of the 1970s.

    Our monetary system allows for creation of money via credit mechanisms due to fractional reserve banking. The Fed opened the floodgates for this in 2001. But it also allows for outright printing as the Fed did post 2008 when the credit system crashed.

    p.s. I think they are skilled enough to keep a cap on inflation in the high single digits, at least the official rate. There isn't the same basic labor cost driver as in pre-1980 due to globalization. And 8% inflation would be considered a disaster and have terrible problems for the bond market and the funding of the US govt deficits.

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  15. "Jan '14 $245 calls cost $7.77, and if Gold hits $7000, then GLD would be approx 700. Every $777 call option would then have an added value at expiration of >$45,000 if my math is correct. That will buy a few loafs of bread."

    Speaking of option.
    I like a cover call strategy here.

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  16. I HATE to be THAT guy that ruins a happy thought, but i wanted to share a study I'm doing .

    The NASDAQ was a GREAT BUBBLE! But right before the great blow off, it also had a steep sell off. Doesnt look bad here...but...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Ft1A3QORn

    NOTICE THIS... CLOSE UP of that drop

    1)It dropped from the $2000 area ,
    2)Hit the $1500 area
    3) Bounced to $1770 YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!
    4) THEN Dropped to $1350 area....................SOUND FAMILIAR??

    http://www.screencast.com/t/nODKcHLqR4

    You'd lose your lunch on that ride!!

    POLY is still thinking we get 1 more pullback, I believe...SO I started a study of my own on the ENTIRE BULL in GOLD . It also shows that 1 more FAST UGLY DROP is "possible".
    NOT NECESSARY--BUT VERY POSSIBLE.

    No one looking at the NASDAQ chart would want to ride GOLD from $1700 to $1300...last week proved that ,so I just wanted to post this .F.W.I.W.

    TIME WILL TELL..for now we ride.

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  17. FRANK

    That JAG chart looks stellar...gap fill and retesting the original break out

    Thx for the heads up

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  18. P.S.
    That first comparison chart of GOLD vs NASDAQ is not all mine, I just wrote the large print, and regrettably...

    I dont know who to credit for that chart.

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  19. One thing about monetary inflation is that the Fed cannot control where it has an impact.

    It hits markets in the margins where there is high intrinsic demand and blows a "strong market" into a bubble. E.g. housing in 2001-6 and oil 2005-8.

    I believe that wheat will not become a target for monetary inflation relative to other things (like gold) hopefully. There is technology to produce wheat in abundance to meet global demand. And wheat has relatively small cost input in a loaf of bread. Well, at least the better stuff.

    I pay $5 for a loaf of bread that is about half the size of what you would buy in the US. But this is the ultra-premium market, and the bread is extraordinary. And Japan is in deflation according to the Keynesians.

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  20. The rumored takeout by the Chinese was $9.30 and it rallied from the $4s to the high $7s as you can see.

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  21. I would be cautious as this downtrend is not done yet. Why do I say this? I am a big believer and analyst of Weekly charts and I find them to be the best longer term view, and at the moment we dont even see any cross up let alone a curl in indicator signals and divergence.

    http://mproe.blogspot.com/

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  22. Oil working on a mega inverse H&S on the daily-

    http://screencast.com/t/p2GpgMWsmIHW

    GCC (which is the ETF that mimics CCI or another commodity index similar to CRB but w/o as much oil) looks like a huge cup and handle on the weekly. Both would support a move like you are talking about Gary.

    http://screencast.com/t/h2zOefs4

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  23. Alex. Your Nasdaq chart is interesting. It also has parallels with the Asian Crisis of 1998 and the Euro Crisis of 2011.

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  24. Alex

    That is a possibility and boy would that flush out a lot of people at the bottom. 1350 would be the ultimate PUKE?

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  25. That was this dude's post from back in Aug. Great call. (Nas bubble action vs gold)

    http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2011/08/gld-gold-crash-gold-bubble-.html

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  26. I interpret the chart as the first trough being the 2011 gold Oct low and we are now in the second.

    You can't read these things too literally.

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  27. THANKS JAY

    That was the chart , I copied it and saved it ( kind of doubted a drop to $1250 as he stated )

    --but he calls for below $1250 and the close up comparison chart of Nasdaq that I looked into doesnt seem to fit.

    But an ugly drop further is POSSIBLE.

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  28. Frank said...

    Alex. Your Nasdaq chart is interesting. It also has parallels with the Asian Crisis of 1998 and the Euro Crisis of 2011.

    December 15, 2011 8:55 PM

    REALLY? I will check that out-thx

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  29. I see now...

    He was calling a top in EARLY AUG at $1700 level, so he called the drop to $1250

    Gold went up further to $1900's , so when I did the close up of Nasdaq chart...I see the match up as $1350 area

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  30. This is several hours old but I haven't seen anyone post it.

    From Forexlive.com

    Hedge funds closing down, adding pressure on Gold

    By Sean Lee || December 15, 2011 at 22:49 GMT

    Overnight interbank reports are mentioning quite a few hedge fund closures this week (I’m presuming due to under-performance) and this has led to some heavy liquidation of long Gold positions. Same old story, cut the good positions to pay for the bad. They expect the selling to dry up in the next few days and Asian Sovereign bids near $1500 to provide short-term support.

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  31. Chris Kimble pointed this link out below- apparently tracks money flow into GLD.

    His point a few weeks ago was that too much money was going into GLD (similar to bullish sentiment) and it was a crowded trade.

    Seems like today, money is flowing out now.

    As he also warns, hopefully, something that was already tanking in value (gold) won't continue to tank in short term as money now flows out...


    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/!GLDTONS:IND/chart

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  32. WW, looks like were hitting your 1595 resistance.

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  33. sure hope we crack it this time, I bought right above that price. :)

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  34. I am sorry. The fall 1998 market dip was a result of the Russian crisis and the implosion of LTCM.

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  35. I'm afraid that Gary's analysis is fundamentally wrong. If, as he has stated, he expects the stockmarket to crash during 2012 then the dollar will surge and the price of gold plummet to about $1000 an ounce. Look what happened to gold during 2008-09. It fell along with the broader markets and the strength of the dollar. Nothing has changed this time round. I'm a buyer of gold at $1000. No more.

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  36. At ease,

    Would love to meet in the new year...

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  37. G,
    I concur as I posted dec 11 4.03pm..SMT.
    "You (everyone interested in AU and in protecting their wealth)needs to be there for the 3rd phase ...its gonna be a blast".
    Quite astue to note the shortening of anticipated cycles and changing sentiment. Things don't always play out as expected. As with any type of risk assessment (investment profile) you gotta keep your finger on the pulse. This doesn't imply you were wrong initially, but merely highlights the need for agility and liquidity...as you so rightly put..."things could evolve much faster". I like that one...I would call it a bit of an understatement though. 1Q12 will show all IMHO.

    Brave call on 2014 AU $$$ 7-20k.
    Lets just take one step at a time.
    We break $2k and the upper band for this should be mid 2000's. Rest and correction. The next mark would see 3500 and again with rest and correction before the exponential move. Some very well regarded gold bugs are calling somewhere north of $10000.
    I maintain my faith in this last great bull market, not only from the reasons that you put, but many other factors that will enforce Gold's rightfull place in our monetary system.

    The greed mentality and the "Lizard core - Michael Lewis/Peter Whybrow" will ensure that your prediction together with a few others, comes to fruition. Death and taxes are the other certainties in life.

    Further words of advice...anyone who is not committed to the finality of this bull will ensure their undoing. Short termism..is a dying trade. Keep the faith.

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  38. Tom, I think you are reading Gary's change of outlook wrong. An extremely left-translated dollar cycle means the market it sniffing out big-time printing of dollars that will cause stocks and gold to go up sharply for quite a while. The endgame here may be a stock market decline AFTER the ill effects of high inflation hit profit margins, OR it could be hyperinflation ($50 bread) that means stocks are valued on their assets rather than their earnings, and never come back down in nominal terms. If the US is forced to return to a gold standard by the market, $13,000 an ounce would fully back the money supply today, and maybe $16,000 after Bernanke's game comes to an end. Remember: The first big country/region to break IMF rules and go back on the gold standard by repricing gold may have the world's reserve currency for the next 50 years, due to Gresham's Law.

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  39. Sophia, sounds like a plan. :)
    Are you within London or outskirts?

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  40. Inside London....need to check how far we are from each other and we can meet in the middle

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  41. Sophia sounds good, before before trading hours. :) Email is on my profile when you know your schedule.

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  42. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  43. FYI.. 59% of Symmetrical Triangle patterns have 'pulllbacks' to the breakout price. After a pullback, 53% continue higher while 47% turn and continue in the direction of the breakout. In gold's case that direction would be down.

    http://thepatternsite.com/pullbacks.html

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  44. Alex,
    While the trading price target for a downward breakout from gold's triangle is about 1523, the Ultimate Low could reach -17% from the 1709 breakout price. 1709 -17% = 1408. (If I am interpreting this correctly, which I may not be.)

    http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

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  45. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p85323452000&a=241643000

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  46. bubble phase in gold means descending dollar

    this would not happen if stock markets will go down - and it will go down becase we have a bear market

    SO

    do you believe there will be no positive correlation between gold and dollar during next year ?

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  47. WOW

    Someone pulled the trigger on gold at 4:32. Huge volume spike!!

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  48. WW,
    Can you tell me what the next level of support is over 1595?

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  49. "...anyone who is not committed to the finality of this bull will ensure their undoing. Short termism..is a dying trade. "- Liquid Motion

    I agree, and would add that traders looking for typical relationships will get shaken out too early. For example, many will dump miners if the general market looks ready to crash, only to find that this time (or the next), the miners resist and even blast higher as the new funds plow into metals. Those that bail might feel right for a week or two during initial reactions, only to find that normal correlations no longer offer any predictive value. It will be very difficult to get back into winners at higher and extended prices, IMO.

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  50. " 1350 would be the ultimate PUKE?"- SF and Alex

    I have no idea if this will occur, but it certainly is a possibility. The only solution is to have positions, and keep some dry powder to take advantage of a washout. I suspect it won't last long, if it occurs at all.

    Gary might prove right that the public is now becoming aware of the metals bull, and in fact we know this is already the case in countries like China and Germany. Time will tell, but I'm sticking to my plan regardless of what happens in the near term. I still maintain the hardest part of this trade will be to avoid taking juicy profits after a nice run, only to park assets back in fiat. :)

    Good luck!

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  51. Whats with this word verification nonsense?

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  52. SB

    I agree, and I always hold a core position (even if I hate to watch some nice gains melt away during the larger corrections. The BULL upside surprises make a core position advantageous. : ]

    And When I was saying that we could POSSIBLY have another drop in the next couple of weeks...it is based on past "happenings"...and those may change as the bull goes steeply parabolic.

    Still ,I like to keep the Possibilities in Mind...so I'm not 100% (or leveraged) during any LARGER corrections.

    I see this possibility if another larger leg down -shake out- occurs

    http://www.screencast.com/t/QFvh12Ml3UnF

    again, thats if we got this similar 'shake out' that the NASDAQ got (posted this one earlier of Nasdaq before blast off to 5000)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/nODKcHLqR4

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  53. The S&P could sure hose us if they decide to downgrade some Euro countries like France. I imagine the US dollar would skyrocket after that event. Weekends always make me nervous in PMs

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  54. http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2011/12/buy-signal-on-spy.html

    Nice bottom call Gary.

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  55. well i hope the bottom is in but i'm not adding just yet.

    there has definitely not been any huge buying going on here, but think we're probably in the process of a stealth santa rally for the time being = low volume grind upwards.

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  56. Demark: GDX is showing an imperfect DAILY 9 BUY Setup today - needed yesterday to be below Wednesday's 51.53, but that didn't happen. According to Prof Depew, the tendency is for the signal to perfect regardless, but not necessarily so. So, Monday - Thursday should be good for the miners. GDXJ is one day behind, and needs a low less than 24.55 to perfect on Monday, but doesn't seem likely today.
    NEM is still on a DAILY Sequential BUY window, which wasn't too hot of a signal - let's see if we can't get another bullish price flip.
    On greater time frames, GDX isn't showing much according to thinkorswim Sequential study. But GDXJ could record a MONTHLY BUY Setup by February, provided Jan or Feb, takes out that 24.55 low.
    GLD Monthly shows a SELL Setup 9 recorded in September, so we are in month 3 of the 1-4 bar window. GLD is showing a DAILY perfected BUY Setup today, so also Monday-Thursday of next week should be good for gold! GC futures also showing this DAILY BUY Setup.
    SI futures a bit more ominous recording a MONTHLY sequential SELL in May, good for 12 months, but we are over half way through. But on the DAILY, we are awful close to a DAILY Sequential BUY, currently on bar 12.
    For the general markets, a reminder that SPX is emerging from its 12 YEAR Sequential SELL that recorded in 1999. So, the next 12 years will not be like the last 12 to give people something to look forward to!

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  57. Coolkevs,

    Interesting...Maybe S&P could rally a bit and Bonds selloff for a change!!

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  58. Who was it that said GDX is like Lucy on the Snoopy cartoons? You want to trust her, but at the last minute she always yanks the football out from underneath your foot. That was so apt! I feel like we keep beating the same dead horse. :-(

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  59. Gary,

    I thought we would have one more huge shake out before the bubble phase started. Yes, this is a correction but not earth shattering. Wouldn't you think we need to shake out
    way more people before all the gains are made during the bubble phase? Just a thought....

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  60. Elaine,

    I made that comment about Lucy and the football yesterday.

    It sure seems to fit, doesn't it?

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  61. ckpc,

    yes, it's really frustrating and the one time Gary tells us to trade GDX and I don't will of course be the time Lucy holds the football for Charlie Brown to kick for a field goal.

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  62. Sale pitch, which happen every December..

    Sorry Dr Savage, however, I am not buying your remarkable pronouncements..

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  63. Bicycle Bill -
    Re my question about holding CEF in my IRA, you wanted to know what answer I received from my accountant: "Generally, assets held in an IRA should be your high income high appreciation / growth investments so the income and gain are sheltered from current tax. What are the costs, premiums, sales charges, etc.? A Canadian fund held by your IRA may have foreign tax deducted from it. You can't deduct the foreign tax or get it refunded in an IRA. You want to avoid the foreign tax issue. A Canadian fund is usually required to withhold on a US investor. If you can't avoid Canadian tax withholding, it would be better to own this investment outside of a retirement account."

    Hope this helps.

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  64. Greg,
    It wasn't earth shattering to you because you didn't ride it down. But to anyone else it has been devastating. It knocked off Paulson, Gartman and Soros.

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  65. Folks like I said last night we are waiting for oil to bottom. Do you guys actually read the reports?

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  66. Gold, miners, and stocks all look to be bear flagging, dollar bull flagging. Gold failed to hold above $1600 and we are only on day 19 of this DC, possible we see one more flush. If gold reverses at $1595 again tonight I think we may see a push to the low and stops being triggered for a final plunge to the 300dma.

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  67. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  68. Gary,
    Do you also look for a swing low to mark the SM half cycle low?

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  69. Gold is holding up pretty well here as the market declines.

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  70. Everybody wants to get rich, and they want it NOW! :)

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  71. I can't recall where I read it, and haven't verified b/c it's irrelevant in my trading, but I believe Soros actually bought back in his entire position in gold recently.

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  72. Anemic performance from the miners. Bad sign.

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  73. I don't see it that way at all. They've pulled back hard and need time to turn the short term MA's higher again. Also, if this turns out to be the beginning of a C-wave, they typically creep out of lows slowly rather than rocket higher, according to Gary.

    Unless I was looking to exit early next week, today's action is not important, IMO.

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  74. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  75. I heard the same thing. Kyle Bass took possession of physical gold a bit ago too.

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  76. Thanks, Russell.

    Those that bought alongside Gary have nothing to be concerned about. In fact, they have better marks than me as my accounts are still in the red at current prices. I'm unconcerned, miners and physical will be greatly rewarded with patience.

    Think I'll take a nap now. :)

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  77. Any Canadians out there? Check out CVE:KAM. Kaminak (Yukon explorer) has been crushed in the downturn, but is up 12% today; could easily be the beginning of a run back up to $3.00 resistance, which is 50% upside from here.

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  78. "Anemic performance from the miners. Bad sign."

    I have to disagree. The miners have been much more correlated with general equities than the POG for the last year. For those of us that have traded both for years are used to the miners leading gold but I no longer believe that relationship is valid.

    The miners are stocks and gold is gold. It's one of the reasons I have only owned gold for the last 3 years. I don't believe the miners will outperform gold.

    Silver? IMO.... a disaster. It is perceived as an industrial metal, not money as gold is. Also, it will take silver years to recover from its broken parabola.

    Rather than buy GDX Wednesday, I loaded the boat with GTU, which was actually trading at a 1.3% discount to the gold it holds. I can't remember the last time GTU traded at a discount to its NAV. Two months ago it was at a double digit premium to its NAV. A secondary in October knocked it down to the low single digits and the 3-day gold pukathon knocked its price down to a 1.3% discount to its NAV. An absolute steal. I loaded the boat on Wednesday and was able to pick up a small buy this morning at the open still cheap but then it quickly ran away from me. I'd like to buy a bit more but I'll wait now to see how this move unfolds.

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  79. Anyone think France is not going to get downgraded? I hate to link again, but what will happen to US dollar and PMs if a downgrade occurs. Zero hedge reports rumors of an imminent downgrade. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fitch-revises-french-outlook-negative

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  80. gary: dont think this is an "earth shattering correction: I think a drop to 1200 will be earth shattering to alot of people... not a 300 point drop.

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  81. Fitch Maintains France's Triple-A Rating But Revises Outlook to Negative

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  82. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  83. I would really like to believe that GDX or gold or silver is on the verge of breaking out. I thought we can get a more powerful bounce for the miners. Maybe I need to be more patient.

    I know Gary doesn't think Euro will break up, but I have been hearing a lot of talk about the Breakup of the Euro, how would that impact the USD cycle (and the PM sector)?

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  84. Russell,

    same feeling here, I had enough of the last few weeks/months...

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  85. Gold looks to have completely decoupled from stocks today, held up well as the market was declining.

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  86. Gold and silver will gradually climb the 'Wall of Worry' as the doubters stand by the sidelines..

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  87. I have to say normally I would be nervous about holding in to the weekend because of the environment these last couple of months.....but when I remind myself of where the sentiment levels are...It doesn't bother me that much.

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  88. BTW
    BOW a lot of companies are there, Huge SOS for exxon...Don't know what to make of that

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  89. AXU doing it again today on huge volume.

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  90. Buellar....Buellar

    I'm thinking we get a push down on Monday for the general market maybe it pulls down the HUI to test or break the recent lows.....Then turn around Tuesday we gap up and everyone who got nervous and sold on Monday will be chasing

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  91. Not sure if we have another 1-3 days of weakness but my charts seem to say PMs will have a 1-2 week rally on dollar profit taking.

    Close enough. Going long.

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  92. Gold still has a long way to fall: $1230 then ~$1000

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  93. Mateuselah,

    You could be right, but might want to own some here just in case we don't see $1100/oz for 10-15 years. :)

    ReplyDelete
  94. AXU (AXR canadian) is also Sprott's 3rd largest holding.

    http://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/sprott-asset-management-lp-630889?sortname=valuesofshare&sorttype=1

    ReplyDelete
  95. SB,

    This is for you. :)

    http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2011/05/20/wily-george-soros-is-dumping-physical-gold-for-gold-stocks/

    It's a few months old, but shows how Soro's is thinking. Similar to you, I think, as far as preferring miners.

    ReplyDelete
  96. Thanks cpkc, gonna read that now.

    As I recall, Sprott did something similar when he sold some metals and people freaked, only to find he plowed it all into miners.

    ReplyDelete
  97. Market never easy is it? Still liked gold holding up, stay in through weekend, normally don;t but like the fear sentiment.

    Guess could be worse and have to find place to live in the cold weather like Mr. M.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Me sees ... on 60 min charts, UUP is bull flagging - I suspect 1 more push up. GLD bear flagging, - I suspect 1 more push down, that will be divergent. Just me.

    ReplyDelete
  99. Gold really wants to close above 1600. How cute.

    ReplyDelete
  100. $HUI didn't make a decisive swing low (by not closing above yesterday's open). 60 min chart looks like bear flagging. $SPX 60 min looks like bear flaggin. $VIX didn't make a lower low.

    In short, I think a bottom in gold is forming, but we're still a day or 2 away from confirming if it was yesterday, or if it's just ahead.

    If Monday is an up day then I go in.

    ReplyDelete
  101. What I wanted to see a red candle in OIL so another one in Monday would have marked the sure bottom of this commodities cycle...

    ReplyDelete
  102. Bill,
    Do you see a large bull flag on SPX beginning Nov 28th?

    ReplyDelete
  103. The only thing I would be cautious if we retest these lows sometime next week.

    SLV has opened up with a gap this morning so there is a possibility we may close this gap next week.

    In the meantime I will be looking for any weakness in the metals.

    ReplyDelete
  104. Review of previous d-wave by John Townsend.

    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/08/gold-c-wave-tops-and-d-wave.html

    ReplyDelete
  105. Silver need to close above 30.5 or close before end of month to save itself from sinking further ...

    Suckers pushed it too far down they scared the hell out of me ...

    Gartman signals huge run after this scare is over ...

    Parabolic run around the corner after the suckers get out ...

    Dollar going DOWN from here with max run up to 83.5/84 ...

    Gold bull ends 2015/16 ...

    stockmarket going up too ...

    ReplyDelete
  106. Oh ... Silver final stop $1300

    I know it's extreme and laughable but that's what I believe ..
    I believe ...
    I believe ...

    ReplyDelete
  107. Current gold fib retracments:

    38.2%. 1519. Hit within $16
    50.0%. 1394. Hit if this cycle fails?
    61.8%. 1269. Back up the truck, if you can pull the trigger

    ReplyDelete
  108. Commercial traders of euro currency futures are making a huge bet on the euro currency moving higher. The commercial traders have never had such a big net long position like this in all of the history of the euro currency. They tend to end up being right...

    ReplyDelete
  109. Anyone know what the COT report today is showing for gold? Thank you...

    ReplyDelete
  110. Interesting quotes ... Turkey?!

    "In Turkey, 1982-2005, the stock market went up over 2,000,000%... about 66%/yr compounded. For those "lucky" enough to have been fully invested for the entire ride (and not accounting for taxes)... they STILL LOST 98% OF THEIR BUYING POWER IN THE DEVALUATION."

    "Just before the devaluation in 2005, a cup of cafe coffee cost 3,000,000 Turkish Lira. After the devaluation, a cup of coffee cost 3 New Lira... the devaluation was 1,000,000:1, lopping off 6 zeros."

    ReplyDelete
  111. AG had two very strong days on huge volume too.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Eamonn

    Looks like Gary hasn't updated the cot report. He's probably out for a burrito.

    Ken

    AG got added the the GDX index.

    ReplyDelete
  113. EAMONN

    The chart is here...updated. This was as of TUESDAY, so it has no doubt improved even more as gold sold off.

    http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png

    ReplyDelete
  114. Thank you, Alex. Most kind.
    And let me say it again: your wife is beautiful in your pic :o)

    ReplyDelete
  115. Thanks right back at-cha

    she's even more beautiful inside , if I may say so- Good hearted girl. : ]

    ReplyDelete
  116. Blogger Ken said...

    AG had two very strong days on huge volume too.

    December 16, 2011 7:35 PM

    Check out the volume on ANV, GFI, MDW, GORO,AXU and a few more.

    Price hasnt reacted as much yet (except AXU and AG), but it could get explosive

    ReplyDelete
  117. Alex

    Alex said

    "Check out the volume on ANV, GFI, MDW, GORO,AXU and a few more."

    All those stocks had volume spikes after regular trading. Matter of fact they were all about the same time. About 1 minute after the market closed. Can you explain why?

    ReplyDelete
  118. It looks like the drop in gold found support at the 45 week SMA which has also been good support for the bull.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p25471800269

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  119. SF

    Not without guessing , to be honest .

    Actually though , with AXU and MDW , I was watching the last 2 hours and volume continued to swell, but the last MINUTE did dwarf it.

    Someone guessed SOROS picking his favorites to buy

    : ]

    but some end of day volume swells looked like High Selling, so no, I'm not sure.

    ReplyDelete
  120. Eamonn, link for the COT report showing huge EUR long commercial position?

    Thx

    ReplyDelete
  121. Unknown, that info came from today's McClellan Daily Market Report :o)

    ReplyDelete
  122. Alex

    The volume looks great on a daily chart but 5 min or even 1 minute the truth comes out. If I had to guess, and it is a guess, maybe someone wanted to get a position after hours for a Monday gap up.

    Thx for the tickers. I'll keep and eye on them.

    ReplyDelete
  123. Veronica, what was your buy level for Gold? And has a stop been established by your system yet?

    ReplyDelete
  124. The longer I play this game the more inclined I am to maintain at least a small bearish position regardless of my bullish outlook. I don't see the harm. Stops are nice too, but they don't help me sleep at night.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02569697168&a=240954229

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  125. FWIW... musings about the potential inverse H&S in SPX and its bull flag.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=15&id=p15706623549&a=241443770

    These are just personal notes to myself. Not trying to argue any case. Criticism ALWAYS welcome.

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  126. I have a different conclusion about Gold. And I am comfortable with this conclusion, but I am willing to listen to arguments that show me I am wrong. Here's my deduction:

    Long term: gold will go higher.
    Short term: lower.

    Why? The collapse of the Eurozone will do TWO things, both of which are bad for gold pricing in U.S. dollars:

    1. Eurobanks, hedge funds and Euro nations sell gold to address immediate solvency / liquidity problems associated with the "who could have seen it" collapse that we all expect to come in 2012. The Euro loses value against the dollar during this process too.

    2. The gold and other risk-assets sold will cause a flight to "safety" (the dollar), forcing treasuries to record highs, which makes to dollar more valuable for a short time. This also causes the Euro to lose value of course.

    So, the above = stronger dollar, weaker Euro, gold and other risk assets LOWER relative to dollar.

    After the Eurozone collapse, attention will turn to our debt and economy. Then we get a realization that "safety" is no longer safe. Wow, who could have seen that? The dollar gets sold, GOLD ROCKETS UP as it's just about the only remaining safe asset.

    I think we've already seen some of the short-term action that I refer to. I just don't think it's done yet.

    ReplyDelete
  127. C3X performance 1180 pips with 82% success ratio in Dec

    PERFORMANCE

    This is the fourth consecutive month of pips that beat the market

    Their view for Dec has been  a rally to 1260 and then a correction to 1210 and then a rally back to 1260. They were among the rare breed of traders who have caught every month trend from July to Dec with precision (Oct Rally, Nov correction,Aug and sept devastation) 

    ReplyDelete
  128. Tort Trading,
    I also believe the USD is only beginning its rally based on the same reasons you make.

    To be honest I don't really understand Garys latest prediction, there is no strong fundamental reasoning to support it. Don't understand why he believes commodities are about to launch into an extended rally when China and Europe are clearly headed for recession with the possibility of sovereign defaults for the latter.

    I strongly believe the Germans are strategically playing their hand:

    - If they allow the ECB to print now it becomes a straight free transfer from Germany to the rest of Europe. In this
    scenario they bail out everyone without getting anything in return.

    - If the Germans keep holding back and let the markets take their natural course the bankrupt countries will head towards default, at that point when these countries become extremely desperate the Germans will have the upper hand in terms
    of bargaining power i.e they can either cede to german demands or they can default.

    The Germans are playing this correctly and they will continue to hold out which supports my reasoning of deflation / strong dollar first before any real money printing.

    ReplyDelete
  129. This is why I use cycles analysis so I don't get distracted by illogical fundamental reasoning.

    First off currencies are subject to the laws of supply and demand just like every other commodity in the world. The EU is initiating austerity measures so they don't have to destroy their currency. a.k.a. they are trying to avoid uncontrollable printing.

    The Fed on the other hand has and is continuing to print billions of fresh dollars daily. Yes markets can remain irrational for a long time, but they cannot defy the laws of supply and demand forever.

    At some point the fact that there are too few euros and to many dollars is going to force the resumption of the bear market in the dollar. The fact that sentiment has reached bullish extremes only seen a few other times is highly suggestive that that turn is imminent.

    The fact that the CRB's three year cycle low is now due also confirms that the dollar is going to top soon if it didn't already do so.

    Personal bias is a strange animal that requires no proof, only belief.

    Almost everywhere I look I see people expecting a recession. However if one takes the time to actually go out and observe the economy you will see that the stores and restaurants are full, and some stores even have help wanted signs in the windows. We would not be seeing this if the economy were heading into recession.

    Almost certainly the cycles are going to be proven correct again and we are about to head into an inflationary period.

    It's been my expectation that 2012 would be a horrible year economically. If the dollar was allowed to rally then it would be a deflationary period. If Bernanke breaks the dollar rally then it will be a highly inflationary period.

    Dollar sentiment and the placement of the three year cycle low in the CRB are confirming that it will be inflationary.

    ReplyDelete
  130. Tortoise,

    You gave a good, elaborate scenario of future events in the EU and gold and whatnot. Well thought through. Clearly logical.

    You have it all worked out. You have your plan in place. You have your direction in gold called out and you are waiting for a lower price to buy.

    I'm gonna give you guys who give market direction calls or "I think we still go lower on gold" calls or whatever calls a suggestion. (This post and my comments here are not meant to be condescending by the way)

    This is a very valuable suggestion and ESSENTIAL to be an investor.

    The suggestion is embodied in a SINGLE question which is the key to EVERYTHING when investing. The question is:

    AND WHAT IF YOU ARE WRONG?

    That singular, simple, short question is almost never answered or prepared for in people who make simple snap calls or directional bets. It is the critical flaw and the reason why the majority are never successful.

    OK, GREAT. Gold isn't done and is going lower. You are sure of it. You are waiting for the lower price to buy.

    AND WHAT IF YOU ARE WRONG?

    What if the low on Thurs is the lowest price for the rest of the gold bull mkt?

    How long do you sit out and watch it? When do you decide you ARE wrong? Never? What do you do then? How much do you chase? How long do you want for a pullback to get back in? How much of a pullback is acceptable? Do you load up extra later caused you missed the bottom? Does that extra leverage blow you out afterward? Does that make you even more unstable mentally and then compound things going forward?

    No matter what anybody here believes or what call they make, it is CRITICAL to say:

    1) What if I'm wrong?
    2) What is my plan in that case? (How much will I get hurt? How do I correct things?)

    Clearly nobody here knows if we are right or not at any time. It is all a probability game (with the probabilities becoming more and more certain the longer your time horizon - a key point.)

    So, with honest intent, I simply say...GREAT. Love your story of how this goes and that gold is going lower.

    But what if you are wrong?

    ReplyDelete
  131. For what it is worth I think gold has a very high likelyhood of having bottomed on thurs with that being a low that holds for the rest of the gold bull.

    I'm long with plans of increasing my bet sun/mon/tues.

    But I also have a tolerable and reasonable exit point 'if I am wrong'. That gold is so close to these lows here I think it is VERY unwise for somebody to not take a position and simply have a stop if we go lower.

    I'll detail things as I see them a bit later in the weekend, but I think there is a lot of risk in being out and looking for lower prices. But IF WRONG I will lose a few single percent and continue to play the game going forward at lower levels with the same tools I already have and use. If right I have a very solid position in from a very VERY low point

    ReplyDelete
  132. PS: one of the big keys to investing is to evaluate and *answer* the 'what if I am wrong' question at (or even BEFORE) you make a trade.

    Having that angle thought through:

    a) means you will recognize clues of being wrong faster cause you have already accepted the view that it COULD happen.

    b) means you won't be 'married' to your existing position stubbornly if it turns on you cause you are already open to other scenarios and understanding they could occur (locking into a position and 'holding and hoping' is how the worst losses always occur)

    c) means you will flip to the right position and start benefiting as early as possible. Improving your results.

    Lots of benefits to always trying to argue something BOTH ways in your head. Ideally even before pushing buy or sell.

    ReplyDelete
  133. Tortoise,

    If you will endulge me may I ask the following. FORCE yourself to come up with reasons as to why gold MAY have bottomed here. Don't say you can't come up with any. That clearly would not be true. And please don't use another person's opinion (like Gary) as a reason.

    Either technically or fundamentally please try to, contrarily, try to come up with an argument why gold has bottomed. I would love to hear your argument.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Gary,
    your response certainly helps me understand your reasoning a lot better. What you say about the dollar printing visa a vis the USD and EUR has been correct however I already believe this to be priced in.

    over the last few years we had massive money printing by the fed with two QE programs and we saw the dollar hit lows and the commodities rally hard.

    You say that the fed is printing millions each day, is this an assumption or do you have information that shows this? Fed meetings indicate no printing.

    I also believe we are at a turning point however I believe we head down the path of deflation first.
    Yes USD sentiment is high and yes this may result in snap back rallies with the USD heading down and the EUR up however for me this does not change the bigger interim picture – the EUR is heading down which means dollar up since EUR makes up 60% of the DX.

    Don’t get me wrong, I see the merits in a short term PM bounce trade however I think for the intermediate term PMs will continue to head down.

    For me investor sentiment and cycles do not drive fundamentals – it’s the other way around – I think that’s where we really differ…

    ReplyDelete
  135. Sure, just look at the M2 money supply numbers. The Fed has been printing since August.

    Like I said this is why I use cycles so I don't get tangled up in illogical fundamental reasoning.

    There is only one time per decade that gold can significantly move below the 200 day moving average and that is at an eight year cycle low. The next one isn't due until 2016.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Gary, the M2 money supply has risen sharply over the last couple of years and we know why however this chart does not tell you that they are infact printing today, there is always a lag on money supply so by looking at this alone you cannot definitively say they are printing today. What it does say is they have been printing over the last few years.

    I am not trying to prove you wrong or say that I am definitively right its just sharing opinions. Trust me if I start to feel I'm wrong I'll have no problem flipping my view to the inflation side its just right now I'm feeling euro backed deflation.

    ReplyDelete
  137. Gary,
    Do you see the markets rallying with gold or will gold decouple? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  138. Gary

    As far as your comments about people at restaurants and people shopping and all that stuff. I do see it myself. But I do feel that a lot of that is going on because for one old habits die hard, and also the fact that people are still living in houses that they are not making payments on. That will only last for so long in my opinion. When these people have to get out of those properties and have to start paying rent. That will take away a lot if not all of their disposable income. The economy here is totally unbalanced and the "consumer" is going to die at some point. I swear that everyone I know lives paycheck to paycheck, there is no one who saves. It's not because they are not getting interest, it's because they have bad habits.

    ReplyDelete
  139. Haggerty, very interesting insight, here in Europe that is certainly not the mentality, the mindset in europe is to save - funny considering almost all countries a bankrupt! but thats what banks and big government have brought.
    Would you say thatv this paycheck to paycheck mentality is prevelent across the US?

    ReplyDelete
  140. TZ:

    For your first question ("what if I'm wrong"), which is always possible, and it means I miss a gold entry point, so I continue with my other investments - hard assets and stock protected with derivatives. If it goes up and makes a new high, then I will know I am wrong, and thus I can secure a new entry point later.

    For #2, ("find reasons we ARE at a bottom"), is a bit harder for me.

    Firstly, Gold is certainly in a bull market, so there's no doubt it's going higher in the long term. Primarily because gold is still universally seen as a valuable commodity and thus is a "money" in its own right. Given the global devaluation of paper money, gold (and similar valuable assets) will increase in value because the more traditional forms of money are being rapidly devalued. $15 trillion dollars in current debt makes a dollar worth, well, not very much. Warren Buffett will be long Gold and won't care about a correction down. The guy has the patience to see beyond that. I am not so strong.

    So, why could we be at a bottom? Well, we're approaching the summer lows, so once we retest them, we could assume the same buyers will come back in to add to their holdings. That's likely. But will it offset the sellers?

    There's no simple Fibonacci ratio I can find, BUT we are approaching a Fibonacci fan retracement that I have found from the 2008 low to the 2011 summer high. It would be a good place to bounce up for a rally. To me, that looks quite tradeable but does not imply a long term rally, it's purely technical. Maybe worth a Call Spread in GLD, but not worth buying the yellow metal to me.

    One thing I will always look for is if Europe can come up with a credible means of fixing the problems. For example, if the financially stronger nations were willing to back the generation of more debt using hard assets, including gold reserves, then they COULD get out of the current hole. But that means Germany and others mortgaging their country for the benefit of their fellow Europeans. It could happen, but I see no sign of that. Indeed, if anything, I see Germany ring-fencing how far they are willing to go (and it's not selling the family jewelry).

    We could be at a bottom in Gold if the U.S economy were to collapse. So, if the big U.S. banks suffer a major run, and the Fed can't (or won't) backstop it, and Congress freezes up (which they will) then Gold will rally because of the collapse of the dollar. As bad as it is here, the Eurozone Med countries are much worse. It's not our turn yet.

    Gosh it's hard for me to pick an entry here.

    Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Re Gary's comment at 8.03am, I completely agree...shops and restaurants in London are full, certainly not feeling like 2008-2009! People are spending and travellling...Inflation is here to stay

    ReplyDelete
  142. Tort Trader,
    You say Germany and 'others'. What others? Luxembourg, Neatherlands, Finland with a total population of around 15m. Thats the misconception, there are no meaningful others. Everybody talks about the PIIGS but France, UK, Austria, Belgium and most of the Easternbloc countries are in as bad or worse state. Its all down to Germany and they are going to play this thing in a way that suits them.

    ReplyDelete
  143. gary and others...

    Here is martin armstrongs latest letter: seems he is calling for gold to go to 12XX for 2012: hes been pretty on the calls since june so just a warning to others.

    ReplyDelete
  144. My experience with Armstrong is that he's wrong more often than not. I tend not to pay much attention to analysts who are consistently wrong (or anyone for that matter. I make my own decisions). Usually it means their trading system doesn't work but they are unable to admit it and change to something that does work.

    Armstrong obviously has no idea what is unfolding in the CRB index. Without that knowledge one can't make any reasonable assumption about gold.

    As far as I can tell Armstrong is a cycles guy that doesn't understand cycles.

    ReplyDelete
  145. Jg,

    I can say that mentality is alive and well NYC. People here live in public housing and drive Cadillac Escalades not kidding. They feel like they are on top of the world. Stereotypes are created here. Unfortunatly a majority live up to it.

    Look this is an expensive place to live, and most of us are just the working poor.....I took out a loan for 12k in 2009 and invested it all in silver mining stocks found Gary a year later....and now I have just over 50k. Plus my wifes Ira is a little more than that thanks to Garys guidance. I'm a union electrician and I have worked 30 Weeks in the last two years. There just isnt any work unless I go to Starbucks or McDonalds. Thank God my wife works.

    ReplyDelete
  146. gary,

    always thought armstrong was a world respected cycles guru.. also he called the top in gold and the dowwntrend before it happened. anyways, each to their own i guess.. thanks for the input.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Hell I did that and made 23% as it dropped.

    ReplyDelete
  148. It's not hard to call a top in a parabolic move as long as one can separate their emotions and think clearly.

    ReplyDelete
  149. SMA's never cease to amaze...If gold has indeed began a new C-wave, I basically bought the bottom of the next C-wave when I added to my position on the 250dma on friday. King SMA possibly just pushed the yearly cycle low into the middle of next year, As I have always stressed here on the blog, cycles are dictated by moving averages. As everyone knows it was always my expectation that gold would bottom on the 300dma, we may have just got an early bottom for Christmas, as we did in July (bottomed on the 100dma instead of the 150dma). Cycles analysis COMBINED with SMA analysis is the ultimate edge.

    ReplyDelete
  150. Feeling pretty good to see everyone agreeing with Gary on this cycle turn
    TZ, WW, Poly! Thank you for your continual inputs.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Gary,

    "It's not hard to call a top in a parabolic move as long as one can separate their emotions and think clearly."

    You know that's not true.

    ReplyDelete
  152. AT EASE,

    I will have more specific comments before open on sun/mon. Things look good to me. And if wrong we have a pretty clear exit point lower without much risk.

    ReplyDelete
  153. AT EASE,
    Tooting my own horn I want to point out I called the bottom and bought about 5hrs before Gary on Wed and I also posted in ALL CAPS that this was a low/buy zone that was going to *definitely* hold unless we were in a 2008 'all collapse' type scenario.

    I made the mistake of raising my stop and having to re-estabilish on thurs as we ticked a bit lower, but my comments still stand. I simply executed wrong and didn't plan on the retest lower.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Sorry, DG, I forgot you on the last comment... and if I did anyone else, sorry, I usually don't like to name names for that reason, so thank you all for your continual contributions and helping us all understand better how to make money.

    ReplyDelete
  155. It has to be a bottom,
    Shalom was buying too
    :-)

    (regular followers of the board will know why this is funny)

    ReplyDelete
  156. WW,
    Sure it is. You just have to be willing to miss some of the upside. That's exactly what happened to us during the final parabolic rally. We missed the last couple of weeks but we also didn't get caught in the crash.

    I learned my lesson...again (sigh) trying to pick the exact top of the silver run.

    ReplyDelete
  157. TZ, I remember your post. My only time to worry is when you all are not in agreement. Which has happened in the past and I remember you disagreeing with Gary and he came around. Same as WW was on July 1st on a possible bottom and I covered my short and went long and made a good amount on that call. We are lucky to have some great traders who share on this blog.

    ReplyDelete
  158. Gary,

    "WW,
    Sure it is. You just have to be willing to miss some of the upside. That's exactly what happened to us during the final parabolic rally."

    That's not calling a top in a parabolic move, thats getting out before it goes parabolic. Gold went parabolic when it broke out of the C-wave upper trendline (around $1655), everyone was out by then.

    So I can't agree with ya there my friend.

    ReplyDelete
  159. WW,
    It's almost impossible for anyone to consistently pick tops, especially parabolic ones. But it's not hard to avoid getting caught in the crash if one is willing to exit early and not freak out because they miss the final pop.

    ReplyDelete
  160. I have to admit though, even though I shorted gold at $1900 I still wasn't sure the top was in. I seen signs of a top from $1800 up. I remember that I mentioned on the blog the night gold topped, the session opened with the first 5 minute candle being a $17 pop, but from $1800 up I was seeing gold pop $10 out of the gate night after night so I became numb to it. Gary, as you yourself have said many times, "its impossible to call a top", its very hard even when you trade futures and watch gold trade constantly in real time, let alone looking at daily and weekly charts to try and spot a top.

    ReplyDelete
  161. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  162. Forgot to mention, after that $17 pop at the open, gold topped shortly after, within a half hour on a 5 minute chart. Let me say this though, theres alot more to spotting tops than just looking at a chart. You have to watch the time and sales tape, know its pulse, and "feel" the top.

    ReplyDelete
  163. Im going to go eat a turkey sandwich, my stomach is going to eat me if I dont. have a good rest of the weekend my friends.

    Oh, Gary...I was wondering, does Toby and Chanel twiddle thier paws next to you while you twiddle your thumbs, funny picture huh, you should get a picture like that photo shopped and put it on the premium website, I think that would look cool, maybe throw a gold bone charm hanging from their collars... :)

    ReplyDelete
  164. LOL that would be a priceless picture.

    ReplyDelete
  165. All I can say is you have the patience of a Saint!

    ReplyDelete
  166. Further to my previous posts, this is a chart of the current large Euro net long position by currency traders http://i.imgur.com/5pkNC.png

    ReplyDelete
  167. For the money supply conversations please note that TMS (True Money Supply) as compiled by Austrian economist definitions is shown on this page:

    mises.org/content/nofed/chart.aspx

    It is (arguably) the best and correct measure of overall "money" in society. You can bring up the other measures on the chart if you want.

    ReplyDelete
  168. JG:

    "And others" equals the countries that have a semblance of credit worthiness. Which includes France in spite of the headlines, Austria and...UK. Why UK? Sovereign independence. They can print and thus devalue in a steady manner, like us.

    But you are right: Germany alone is at least 50% of what Europe can bring to any financial defense.

    The problem they all have is that each country fights for itself first, so they can never make a bigger decision. Thus, Germany will not take any truly risky action until they can negotiate something useful for it. So back to our thread: Gold comes down until that time.

    If I am wrong: I miss the Gold entry many are shouting about. Good luck to you Gold bugs, truly. If I am right: we have several more months of lower highs and lower lows, up 'n down.

    GL all. :)

    ReplyDelete
  169. WW, you said: "Lets see if its time for gold to get busy pushing up to my $2300 target". What is the next level of resistance past 1595/1600?

    ReplyDelete
  170. ...at ease, the next worry point is the 150 dma

    ReplyDelete
  171. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/did-fed-quietly-bail-out-bank-tuesday

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  172. TZ,

    What readers should find funny is you can't hold a position and are still messing with futures while funds like MF steal customer funds then get cover from the CFTC.

    Even more amusing is your hated of miners and incessantly pulling out 10 year records of their under performance v. gold when you're never in a trade more than a week, only to suggest this week that miners are likely where you want to be in the near future.


    :)

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  173. Thanks Eamonn, thought it might be the 200 sma, but wasn't sure.

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  174. At ease,

    In my same comment that you quoted from I said that I would expect the 150dma.

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  175. at ease, 200 sma is at 1616 and 150sma is at 1666, so yea...200 would be first potential resistance moving average.

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  176. If Friday's swing low holds and we are indeed in a new daily and intermediate cycle the 200dma shouldnt be a problem, unless gold chops around beneath it for 7-10 days, although possible I think it's unlikely.

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  177. WW,

    I agree with that, just pointing out the "potential" first line in the sand when it comes to MA's. Looks like things are lining up for a decent run up...except for the COT.

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  178. Tort Trader:

    You have articulately presented the exact case for a much lower Euro (hell, maybe a non-existent Euro) and a much higher Dollar. I have been aware of that scenario (likelihood?) for months. That is know as.... The Conventional Wisdom.

    BUT..... because it is The Conventional Wisdom, have you ever considered that every investor and trader on the planet with an IQ in double digits is also assuming the Euro will implode and the DX will rocket to 100?

    I'm sure you know the old adage about everyone being on the same side of the boat. Of course you do. When everyone expects the same thing to happen, it never happens. That is the biggest reason why I am not ruling out Gary's mega-bullish scenario that we saw THE low last week in the remaining life of the secular bull market in gold.

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  179. Thankyou R41, you answered my question:)

    WW,
    Thanks for clarification on your statement. I hope we do run right up to and through 150dma. :)

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  180. The game changer:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/312344-positioning-to-profit-from-the-pan-asia-gold-exchange

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  181. Gary

    The SOS # on Exxon and conoco was very high. Is that people selling in to a panic and thinking oil is going lower meanwhile it just put in a low.....or is oil really heading lower?

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  182. As I've said before the only thing that has any predictive value at all is the SPYDER"s ETF.

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  183. Seems most traders here are only confident of a mild pop (of maybe 3 or 4 days) before a final quick-and-dirty bottom is put in. I'm long but may dump if I detect we might roll over. May scoop everything up again when GDX slaps the megaphone bottom at 50. But that's just me. If I knew anything I wouldn't be sitting here. I'd be sailing the Southern Ocean.

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