Gary - don't you think that there is big possiblity that DCL for dollar will came just before or just after BIG NEWS i mean 9th december when EU guys HAVE TO show "solution" for EU crisis ?
last DCL was made because of same kind of "last hope" EU leaders meeting
It only happened yesterday. One day doesn't seem like a significant resistance level to me. If it had tried multiple days to close above that level and failed then I might take notice.
David, I'm looking forward to the Gold to Silver ratio going to 30. I'm probably too impatient for something in the post-parabolic collapse time that isn't going to happen soon.
Nothing has been resolved yet.The bears need to pounce on the market hard and fast if they are to prove that hyperinflation is not the chose remedy to the crisis. God help us.
sophia, Who said anything about an intermediate bottom? You either need to slow down and read the nightly reports more carefully, or you need to buy a subscription.
But Gary if the usd index doesn't stop falling right here we have a very strong double top and a sign that hyperinflation might be coming. Ithink that's very unlikely.
Gary wrote... Because the dollar is getting deep in timing band for a cycle low and any rally will likely pressure all asset markets, at least to some degree, ....
by your updating of the stops, you seem to envision a sharper correction than just a normal cycle low on the $, so I am wondering, since you are very accurate in sensing danger, if you see more than a cycle low, and maybe a intermediate low... I said IL, because I read a lot of blogs comments before sending you my comment and I retained that one...sorry
Good movement IMO for silver would be to have silver go up even when gold is neutral. If we return to a ratio of 30, Silver should be $58 based on gold at $1750. Unfortunately, too many have bad memories of silver and it's parabolic collapse.
James, A double top is not actually confirmed until price breaks below the bottom of the valley between the peaks. It looks like a double top. It smells like a double top. But it's not a confirmed double top yet. In other words, price can continue to fall only to bounce right around the valley floor (or fall slightly below the valley floor). If price does not continue to fall below the valley floor then we have a failed double top or at the very least a double top that did not resolved downward strongly. The dollar can sell off here wickedly to say, 74, and yet still have plenty of room to rally back to 85 and beyond. So no hyperinflation (just yet) even if there is a dollar sell off short term. FWIW.
James, Looking at a 10 year dollar chart I really don't see that much weakness. I'm seeing consolidation. And just this morning Merkel said it will take years to fix the EU mess. So the dollar may not be dead just yet, even if it takes a nose dive to 74 short term. I see the EU 'crisis' possibly ramping up in Q1 of next year. But who knows. Just guessing at the tea leaves. Whatever Gary says I would listen to.
Just had a look at the charts following your explanations, and it is indeed very clear! Thank you so much for your time... Going to pick up my kids from school, have a wonderful w/e!!
33.50 proved to be a tad much for silver to overcome, if the dollar has indeed bottomed, then this may have to be put on hold for a week or two...depending on how the USD decides to act. Being RT, I dont see how the USD doesnt move above the previous cycles high.
Good call on an imminent dollar bottom, I was with you on this one.
Gold has stayed quite steady in the face of the dollar making a move out of its low while both silver and miners are reversing. Why not short miners in the event gold decouples and starts following the dollar?
Obviously you are expecting a drop in gold but from your experience, is this "delay" in gold following miners/silver down typical or is there anything more to read into it?
My view of miners are that they always anticipate Gold's moves ahead of time, when miners believe gold is going to $2000 we seen them make a new high, when they believe gold is going to $1500 we seen them make a new low...I believe miners are anticipating Gold testing the 150dma again. And as you know I have been bullish the dollar, which just made a swing low. Lets see what happens.
I think the odds are pretty high that this morning's intraday high for gold was THE high for this daily cycle, and that we'll now be rolling over into an extreme left-translated and long daily cycle.
On the spot gold chart, this morning's intraday high was pretty much an exact touch of the big trendline down from 1922 to 1803 to today's high.
Looking at the Bigger Picture, I think we're definitely still in the D-wave. Gold is going to roll over, and decline in a long daily cycle ( 30 - 35 days). By the end of this daily cycle, gold will bottom in its D-wave somewhere south of 1500.
I've been tracking this scenario closely for about 8 weeks now. I'll put up a post this weekend on why I believe this is the case.
In the meantime: good luck to everyone.
Gotta run!
(P.S. This morning's big disconnect between miners and gold also makes me believe today's high in gold might've been the high for this daily cycle. At one point, GDX was -2.45% while GLD was +.25% and SPX was also green. Miners typically lead gold. Just another possible clue, IMO.)
I posted this on the premium site: . . . Keep in mind that we just saw a 7% up day for miners while gold struggled to gain 2%. We’re just seeing this re-balance, and on a weekly basis the HUI is up ~8% while gold is up ~4%. This 2:1 relationship really hasn’t changed, for the better or worse. . . . I just don't think we should read much into the miners, especially considering this week's action. That said, I do think there is a good chance gold put in a cycle top, or won't go much higher from here before rolling over but that's more a function of dollar strength and the stock market rally flaming out at the 200-day SMA (again).
Folks you might want to consider whether or not you are trading or gambling.
There are times where the correct strategy is just to sit in cash and wait. If you find that you are compelled to trade every day then you probably have a gambling problem.
Good call on the stops, Gary. Thankfully, I lightened up a little yesterday also.
Don't think I'll be doing any more trading until next year so I can enjoy the holidays without stress. (plus, I'm going to Paris!)
Gary, you did a fantastic job of shepherding us through these past few weeks. Thank you. You rock!
WW, good luck with your shorts. It was your contrarian viewpoint that led me to exit some shares yesterday. So thanks to you also for advising caution.
Good luck to all, and have the very best holidays ever!
Many of us make a successful living day trading, its an insult to say we have a gambling problem. I have been day trading since 1999 and never had a gambling problem in my life.
WW, I would also argue that very few people make any money day trading. Probably 99% of traders that try end up losing money. It is by far the toughest way to make money in what is undoubtedly one of the toughest businesses in the world.
If one really wants to stack the odds against themselves just take up day trading.
WW, he didn't say all day traders are gamblers. He said there's trading and there's gambling, and if you feel compelled to be in a trade all the time, it's probably gambling. I've day traded for 11 years and there are plenty of days when I don't see an edge and don't take a trade.
Let me say this, I feel compelled to be in a trade everyday, because I make money everyday, even if I make $100 a day its profit. Its a job, not an addiction. Im not a gambler, never been, never will be.
I would also point out that the vast majority of day traders who claim to be successful are no different than the degenerate gambler that claims to make money gambling.
You only hear about the Royal that paid out $5000. They never bother to tell you that it cost them $20,000 to win that $4000.
Ofcourse there are losses, your right in saying nobody can make money every day. As long as im in the green every week I made money everyday is what I mean.
That's not what he meant. Don't be so sensitive! It's not all about you. What Gary said is true, there's a fine line between gambling and day trading, and the vast majority step over it. It doesn't matter how successful you personally are as a day trader (or your friends), that doesn't change the fact that many day traders have a gambling problem. To say that isn't so just because you don't have one, that's a logical fallacy.
I think Gary can speak for himself, why are you interpreting to me what he said? I know what he said...but just in case I didnt I said that I apologize if I misunderstood him.
Did you miss this? "Gary didn't say all day traders are gamblers."
The vast majority of day traders fail. Many have a gambling problem. That's an empirical fact. If you are insulted by that fact just because you are a day trader, I can't help you.
Interestingly, despite the rocket blast in miners this week $BPGDM didn't flinch, and in fact it went down! It's going to be even uglier after today's action and near the levels seen at intermediate lows, even though GDX is 15% higher than price levels at those lows. Hmm...
Definition of gambling: An act of gambling; an enterprise undertaken or attempted with a risk of loss and a chance of profit or success. Sounds like what we do with every trade.
kidding.. but did just get a system sell in ES, target 1225.25 stop 1261.
i'll hold my current short here (from 1257) and add into any strength monday morning. the overnight moves have been a little... well, dramatic... lately so i'm not that keen on holding large anything over the weekend.
Thanks WW for posting short. Not with you on this one, will remain flat until sunday. Only daytrade when I can watch all day. I use 1-3% of trading money to day trade(swing trade). I'm with S.B. it's about risk allocation. Never had losing yr with that allocation but many a losing month. But in Gary's defense more profitable with my long term holds(gold stocks since 2002)
For what it's worth, have a friend who retired at 50, he was a bookie, that's form of daytrading I think. Had some well placed clients too, sort of like a small goldman sachs. He laughed cause I never messed with his casino, but took him on the golf course because I knew my risk parameters. Riley
You yourself do a whole lot of "guessing" in this business....you constantly say "if I had to guess, I would say this DC or this IC is going to playout this way or that way" :)
Good to hear from you, been wondering where ya been. I agree 99%, I dont think we will see gold south of $1500 though, all D-waves typically find a bottom on the 300dma (at $1527 now). The C-wave lower trendline is slightly above the 300 also.
I've added the 75,150,300sma on my TOS chart... any other important ones i should add? I'm not a day trader or anything, just want to watch what you guys are watching. I always learn something new from your posts, so thank you!
Sorry if a repeat, but it sure is curious that the $HUI fell 3% whereas $GOLD, $SILVER and $SPX were nearly flat for Friday. I know that some day that the $HUI leads gold, and also that the $HUI follows the $SPX, but that's not always so. Like Friday. Very odd to see this.
I play a bit of chess, and when the opponent pulls their queen back, watch out, as it's like cocking a gun before the spring forward bringing sure pain. So it makes me think that the $HUI dropping back is a springboard to launch it forward, even though charts don't show it oversold.
Well...happy to see you guys back to cash with me (although I have core insurance positions). I missed the pop earlier as I said and didn't chase gold.
Good job on taking some profits.
When each of you have time I suggest watching this over the weekend. It covers rather large and important obstacles the world and its economies (and financial system) are going to face. Really good guy. Really great speaker:
Bill, I would say the HUI is probably telegraphing a move down in the metals as the dollar rallies. It was probably exacerbated by the large gap below.
WW As I was reading your debate with Gary/Mutton, I though that maybe you came up with your handle based on the Braveheart scene: "Hold, Hold!, Hold!", before they deployed the long spears. As I day trader, I often play that scene in my head as I seek only the best set-ups.
Could you imaging trying to follow " fast trader" ? Subs cell phones would be going off all day with "portfolio change" about 8 to 10 times a day. Great for generating commissions but some of us still have 9 to 5 jobs.
Thanks for the > 25% in this frigging crazy market.
Regarding the video link, Chris Martinsen's message may be right in the long long term but just beware in March 2011 after the Japan Earthquake, he went on all RED alert predicting global "hell in a handbasket" any moment due to supply chain disruptions etc etc, world GDP contractions.
Nothing dramatic ever happened so far.
We seem to be still on the slow painful road to hell but certainly not due any after effects of Japan earthquake.
Clarkatroid - yeah thats about what i thought. You can actually calculate risk/reward ratios per hand so it feels much much more like trading than gambling.
Here's what my pea brain thinks after a fast and furious ride on my bike:
As we know, gold is in a triangle consolidation pattern, and silver is bear flagging on the weekly. I think that these 2 are about to bust out of their consolidation patterns. Why? Call it QE3 (the world's CB's are now officially printing, as a policy, in unison, as of last week).
I have no idea where the S&P nor the HUI will go - up or down I don't know - but I think that gold and silver will both rise steady and far from here. COT is also unbelievably low. And seasonality is still here. It's only early Dec. I say we rally until March.
I no longer watch the USD as a sign on gold, as I think the time has come that gold is it's own entity. The USD and the Euro will dance yin-yang style irrespective of gold and silver, the former pair down the drain, and the latter pair up to who knows how far.
I'm 100% in cash now, but will look for signs to buy. If we go lower and turn w/out making a lower low, that would be very bullish.
One more thing on the $USD (which again I don't care about now, as a sign for gold). Although Friday looks like a reversal candle, the MACD (I use PPO) - which is an indicator of MOMENTUM - is hooking over and about to give a sell signal. So Friday's candle means nothing to me as it's only 1 day - the momentum has slowed and is about to go down. It might to up, but it'd be a divergent high I bet.
I hope it does go up a bit, so that gold will go down a bit, and then I get in gold.
If the global CB's are buying stocks as they apparently did last Mon/Tues, then they are surely NOT DONE yet. I see Thur/Fri's action in the S&P as merely the foot off the gas. It will be back on the gas again whenever they want. They are not done yet.
I'm surprised that we're expecting to learn anything from the move down in miners on Friday. I think the reality is a lot simpler and less exciting: the HUI made an epic 7% move on a day that gold barely moved 2%, then it got extremely stretched above the 10-day SMA and retraced 50% of the move two days later. This whipping back and forth around the 10-day while gold grinds away is classic HUI behavior.
Taking a step back, the HUI still ended the week up 6.99% while gold ended up 3.87%, continuing the trend of magnifying gold's move by ~2x. This relationship has held steady throughout this intermediate cycle, and is easiest to see in a relative performance chart of GDX vs. a 2x leveraged gold ETF like UGL starting from the beginning of October when miners botomed: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:UGL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p17125340624.
Has anyone seen data or backtested the "miners bottom/top ahead of gold" hypothesis? I know we've seen enough instances anecdotally where this seems to be the case, but given how volatile the HUI is relative to gold and it's tighter coupling to the stock market, I wonder if it's just plain random (for example, miners bottomed before gold's July ICL but after gold's September ICL).
Just a few thoughts. Have a great weekend everybody!
I'm pretty sure all markets, including gold, are waiting to see if the dollar can break through that double top. If it does then the stock market has probably seen it's last test of the 200 DMA and gold probably has high odds of grinding down into a B-wave bottom sometime in the early spring.
The stock market formed a triangle too. We know how that worked out. Best just to wait and see what the dollar does than put your faith in lines on a chart.
I think it's pretty unlikely gold will be able to generate another big move for a while even if the dollar does sink. The kind of rally gold produced from 09 till recently is going to have to consolidate for several months to a year before another big leg up. Gold might test $1900 but I doubt we will see any big moves above that level for quite a while.
BBPoint, My system has not established a stop yet.I will check again at gold open but I'm having some software issues right now so can't make any promises.
Guys, I was thinking about stepping up my game to an Imac...computer is old and when I have the stocks up it really sounds like the computer is laboring. I was looking at the refurbished ones....they are a little cheaper. Any thoughts?
You are talking to the wrong person about technical stuff and computers. I'm just proficient enough to get out the nightly reports and that's about it.
The reason I went from a Mac to a PC many years ago was because a Mac didn't have the stock market software that the PC developers offered. Maybe now is different.
Haggerty, Windows 7 PCs are cheap and nearly problem free. XP Pro was a huge leap forward and Windows 7 is nearly flawless. You don't need a MAC unless that's what you really want. Speed is no longer a concern with computers unless you play video games (then you need a dedicated video card as opposed to just plugging your monitor into the mother board video port).
Whatever you decide you should not have to spend much money. Even a new laptop under $500 from Staples will work great. You can plug a widescreen monitor into it, as well as a full sized keyboard and mouse, plus throw the laptop into your car and take it to Starbucks or the library or on vacation or whatever.
The only reason you might want to spend over $500 on a new computer is if you want multiple monitors for day trading so that you can watch multiple real time charts simultaneously.
Go with a Mac. I love mine. Still runs as smoothly as it did in July 2008. The Apple build quality is so solid.
And should you have a problem or question, I have found the Apple Store tech people to be great.
Yeah, I've used Windows 7. Vastly better than Win XP...but the comparison that matters for you is Win 7 vs. Mac OS X. Apple is still the leader in the OS wars. And if there's a Windows program you just half to run, you can buy a program from VM Ware called "Fusion." It runs Windows on your Mac. Simple.
These days, the computer is the most important piece of electronic equipment most of us own. It's certainly important enough to pay a premium for.
Good to hear from you, been wondering where ya been. I agree 99%, I dont think we will see gold south of $1500 though, all D-waves typically find a bottom on the 300dma (at $1527 now). The C-wave lower trendline is slightly above the 300 also.
December 2, 2011 2:33 PM
WILLIAM WALLACE--
Thanks. I hope you and everyone in here are doing very well.
I've been running on a bunch of different things.
And thanks for the tip on D-waves. I'll try to check it out.
Go with a Mac. I love mine. Still runs as smoothly as it did in July 2008. The Apple build quality is so solid.
And should you have a problem or question, I have found the Apple Store tech people to be great.
Yeah, I've used Windows 7. Vastly better than Win XP...but the comparison that matters for you is Win 7 vs. Mac OS X. Apple is still the leader in the OS wars. And if there's a Windows program you just half to run, you can buy a program from VM Ware called "Fusion." It runs Windows on your Mac. Simple.
These days, the computer is the most important piece of electronic equipment most of us own. It's certainly important enough to pay a premium for.
December 4, 2011 3:44 PM
*************
I agree with catbird. All Macs here, and their "bug freeness" and reliability are simply beautiful.
I had Tradestation on Mac (and will be getting it again shortly here), and did it by using the Fusion program he talked about. Never had a problem and it worked like a charm.
Windows 7 is SOLID. I'm currently running Windows 7 on a Pentium 4 with only a gig of ram (2003 hardware). That in itself should speak volumes.
If you want to overpay for computer hardware, buy Apple.
If you want the best bang for your buck, buy an Intel quad core Sandy Bridge from Dell or HP. Toss in a 60GB solid state drive to use as a boot drive and you'll have a computer that will last you for many years to come.
OK, guys. I found a free site that lets me do ratio charts for 10yrs and I updated the "HUI vs. Straight Metal" argument chart so you can see results of the last 6-9 months. Nothing has changed:
This is simply a ratio of the $hui (GDX essentially) against "Straight Metal" as embodied by CEF which is roughly 50/50 gold and silver in a vault.
I have drawn clear GENERAL lines on the chart showing that stocks won until 2004. Since 2004 the GENERAL TREND has been down and shows no sign of change yet as of last friday.
To those of you who will start to argue again that "oh.. but GDX beat CEF during last wednesday from 11:52am until 1:34pm" or some similar statement I refer you to the words GENERAL above.
I have no interest in arguing small periods of outperformance with anybody who can't understand that such an argument is meaningless if they are only visible in hindsight and if the GENERAL trend maintains a downward trend. A GENERAL downward trend simply means that the ODDS of you getting it right are against you and I don't play against the odds.
Yes, at SOME point the stocks will outperform. I agree.
But *for now* the trend on this chart is clear and if you want to GUESS when the trend will end instead of WAITING until the chart SHOWS you a change (and staying with metal until then), then be my guest. I will not be joining for now.
(As a PS note, I would suggest that the ratio climbing to the clear resistance zone of 30+ would suggest the trend is changing.)
that's a DARN long time to be getting it wrong for hopes of EVENTUALLY getting it right. Metal is already safer with much less risk, so if the stocks can even keep EVEN let alone outperform then what is the purpose of buying them unless you just like gambling on "I just *know* i'm gonna roll a 7 THIS time".
Just how I see it. I know we have had this argument before. Most already know and there is no need to discuss.
I just wanted to update the chart and show people the current data.
With the coin you've made here, treat yourself and buy a Mac. Its a superior product. While your at it, by an iPad 3G so you can keep up with Gary's trades.
One of the takeaways of the various Chris Martenson and Kyle Bass interviews (among other info out there) is that while the US is a mess, we are much LESS of a mess than a few other countries which are up FIRST through the grinder.
Therefore they are directly and indirectly arguing for a HIGHER dollar for at least a while until it is our turn at the disaster party.
Bob Hoye and Ross Clark are predicting a continuing dollar rally as well.
So all of this might help clear up the ongoing debate of "dollar up or down?" including comments by gary.
It seems to be 'dollar up' for a while until focus comes to the US.
We are a 5 mac and 3 pc household. Yep, we have a lot of computers. That said, I work mostly on a mac, but am forced to do some stuff on a pc.
Whenever my husband's pc crashes we get on the internet ON MY MAC and download the patches, repairs, virus software and then transfer it to a cd or flash drive for his pc.
Additionally, on the refurbs, if you buy them from Apple they come with a one year warranty. I have an i5, MacPro 15" laptop that I bought as a refurb, it's a really good computer. The iMacs are quite powerful, the 27" is a beauty.
The fly in the ointment for the "dollar up" scenario in the near term is the extreme bearish sentiment in the Euro. This could precipitate a strong euro rally in the near future.
The more and more I think about it, there is so many ways this thing can go,(Dollar,Gold,Market) I really believe being on the sidelines and waiting for a clearer picture, is the right move.
I don't know why people continue to try and make cycles do something they aren't designed to do. You just can't pick tops with cycles. Anyone who claims to use cycles for spotting tops is just plain lying to you.
I'm back from vacation and well rested. Sure enough the HUI isn't too far from that 570 level I was hoping/expecting to see by the time I got back.
I'm still long all my miners, and might even nibble on some more this week, raising my total portfolio risk a couple percentage points. Haven't decided as yet.
Reloaded dollar shorts. Odds favor dollar weakness either this week or next due to the fact that the EU is clearly going to drum up some good news shortly. Surely temporary, but enough to smack the dollar a bit or at least cap it for a while. This is my take FWIW. Playing the odds.
also nota bene: on the radio this morning everyone saying stuff like "wellll! looks like ANOTHER huge day in store for us, maybe 100 DOW points or more!!"
Gold/silver/miners are going to be GOING DOWN BIG over the next 5 weeks or so, IMO. (I mentioned this in a short post on Friday.)
My main evidence for saying this won't be very satisfying to you though (and I apologize for that), because this prediction is mainly based on a proprietary indicator combination that I've developed. I'm happy to share the signals with everyone, but I hope you'll understand if I don't share the nitty-gritty details on what these indicators are, because they took me an INCREDIBLE amount of time to develop. (A lot of Edison-style experimenting.)
Basically, I took 2 standard indicators and changed them in various ways, and then learned to use them together -- in combination -- in such a way that they show me Hidden Weakness or Hidden Strength in price.
Hidden Weakness = "No matter what it looks like, this price rally is a fakeout of sorts, and price will be heading back to the downside".
And Hidden Strength is just the opposite: "No matter what it looks like, this price decline is a fakeout of sorts, and price will be heading back to the upside".
Of course, much of the time, these indicators are not throwing off signals. Much of the time they're saying: "This price rally is for real" or "This price decline is for real". They only sometimes show Hidden Weakness or Hidden Strength in price.
To give you some basis for judging what I'm saying: I've only been using this indicator combination for about 9 months now. And I haven't done extensive backtesting for them. In the 9 months I've been using them, they've been reliable, especially when they appear on the longer-term daily and weekly charts.
Anyway, this indicator combination has been screaming Hidden Weakness in gold on the daily chart ever since the big 1533 low (all prices I use are spot gold) in September: "This rally in gold is a fakeout of sorts, and price will be heading back to the downside in a big way". This signal and this Hidden Weakness pattern on the daily chart are very strong. Even as gold rallied all the way to 1803, this signal and this pattern never disappeared, and they're still very much on the chart right now.
With this, to me, very strong piece of evidence in hand, I feel I'm then able to judge the validity of a large possible Elliott Wave pattern I've been following in gold for about 8 weeks now.
A classic big correction in Elliott Wave is 3 waves down:
*A wave down: made up of 5 waves;
*B wave up: made up of 3 waves;
*C wave down: made up of 5 waves.
Gold has been following this pattern very closely since the 1921 all-time high, IMO. (All of this stuff is much easier seen on 24-hour spot or futures charts than on the "spotty" GLD charts.)
*A wave down: 5 waves down from 1921 to 1583 on September 28, which was a truncated 5th wave. The big 1533 low was the bottom of the large 3rd wave down;
*B wave up: 3 waves up from that 1583 to the 1803 high on November 7;
*C wave down: 5 waves down from that 1803 high..........
When I combine this Hidden Weakness signal that is very strong in gold, with this possible Elliott Wave pattern, I conclude that that EW pattern is for real and will play itself out (because that Hidden Weakness signal says gold is definitely heading back to the downside, and that EW pattern also says we're heading to the downside. The Hidden Weakness signal confirms the EW pattern.)
That would mean we're now already in the big C wave down -- made up of 5 waves -- of this massive correction in gold. We've had Wave 1 down from 1803 on November 7 to 1666 (the daily cycle low) on November 20. And then we've had Wave 2 up, which probably ended on Friday at 1763. Which means gold should be in the process of rolling over to enter the big Wave 3 down, to be eventually followed by Wave 4 up and Wave 5 down to finally finish off this huge correction. (Check today's, Monday's, stochastics on the daily chart for GLD and you'll see the rollover in gold I'm talking about.)
As to where gold will bottom if all this is true: Alf Field, who Jim Sinclair has called the best and most accurate gold analyst in the world, has set out 3 downside targets for gold (he said 2 1/2 weeks ago that he thought there was a 40% chance that gold would re-visit the downside. I think it's more on the order of an 85 - 90% chance):
*1511 (21% correction);
*1478 (where gold bottomed in late June (the Intermediate Cycle low) before launching a rocket to the upside);
*1416 (26% correction. And Alf doesn't mention it, but if the C wave down = the A wave down (-389 points), gold would get to this level.)
When I looked at this question of downside targets 3 or 4 weeks ago, I came up with 1450 - 1420 as the most likely bottom. 1450 is a big round number down in the likely bottoming range. And 1430 - 1420 is the zone where gold topped back in December. So this area of strong horizontal resistance should now be strong horizontal support.
Anyway, the long and the short of it is that I believe gold is definitely still in its big D wave correction, and that this new daily cycle we're in has basically just topped and is rolling over into an extreme left-translated and long (35 days?) daily cycle. It will bottom in about 5 weeks somewhere around one of the above bottom targets, and that bottom will be the end of the D wave and this Intermediate Cycle. We will then start the A wave up and a new Intermediate Cycle.
I apologize to Gary and everyone here for the length of this post and for the fact that I haven't yet learned how to post my charts on the Internet. (Just haven't had the time.)
I just wanted to share this signal and this prediction with everyone, so you could at least be on your toes for what might happen (and for what I think has a very high probability of happening).
Gotta run. Good trading to all!
P.S. Alf Field's downside targets and analysis appear at the end of this speech: http://www.safehaven.com/article/23442/alf-field-sees-gold-going-to-4500-heres-why
Wow!! - Maybe you should take some time off. Take a little vacation, get some exercise . . . Developing your "proprietary indicator" that you can't disclose seems to have damaged your brain. Seems like your secret indicator can be used to convince yourself of any outcome. Good luck with that! - But just in case you're right, going to sell everything. Thanks for the tip!
JHnewman Ahh, it sounds like you too have discovered the same or a very similar way of analyzing the market that I use. I only have time for corn, soy, and e-mini s&p markets as it does take time to 'run the numbers' each day and I already have a job that is more than full time. I am currently giving away my trades on my blog at mythreemarkets here on blogger, blogspot for entertainment. I wish you good fortune with your system and thanks for sharing.
Gold continues to hit hard resistance at the upper trendline drawn from the 1923 high down to the 1804 high, and crawl the 75dma. When the 75dma is broken we will most likely see gold test the 150dma again within a couple of days.
GLD is currently overbought, needs to blow off some steam and should really close that gap before it is free to move higher without everyone looking back over their shoulders. That's all I am seeing here FWIW. Chart looks healthy to me.
I have discovered a marvelous formula which predicts the price of gold daily for the next 5 years. Sadly it is too large to be contained within the margins of this blog.
Folks, there really is no need to post every trade you make here on the blog. I think I can safely say that no one here cares or will even remember any of your trades.
Where you need to record it is in your personal trading journal so you can learn from your profits and losses.
Gary - don't you think that there is big possiblity that DCL for dollar will came just before or just after BIG NEWS i mean 9th december when EU guys HAVE TO show "solution" for EU crisis ?
ReplyDeletelast DCL was made because of same kind of "last hope" EU leaders meeting
could this cycle be so strechted ?
Anything is possible but I never bank on a stretched cycle because they are rare.
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteSilver just cant seem to penetrate 33.5, but if it does it should be off to the races. I'm sure it's the evil cartel at work.
ReplyDeleteWhat is magical about 33.50? The next resistance level is at 35.70
ReplyDelete.
ReplyDeleteSilver looks pretty good short term IMO. Would not be surprised to see $36 in December.
ReplyDeleteI have been watching 33.5 reject silver and a couple of people including Norcinni felt like 33.5 was a pivot.
ReplyDeleteThe dollar bulls need a correction in the spx right here right now or it's lights out.
ReplyDeleteIt only happened yesterday. One day doesn't seem like a significant resistance level to me. If it had tried multiple days to close above that level and failed then I might take notice.
ReplyDeletesilver shorts are getting monkeyhammered today. I am liking this price action!
ReplyDeleteThanks Gary,
ReplyDeleteI'm on your team. I'm on your team and learning from you. I just want to see silver outperform gold.
Jobs report due within 10 minutes.
ReplyDeleteThis week: silver +8% gold +4%
ReplyDeleteDavid,
ReplyDeleteI'm looking forward to the Gold to Silver ratio going to 30. I'm probably too impatient for something in the post-parabolic collapse time that isn't going to happen soon.
Nothing has been resolved yet.The bears need to pounce on the market hard and fast if they are to prove that hyperinflation is not the chose remedy to the crisis. God help us.
ReplyDeleteYou and me both. USLV 3X Silver ETF.
ReplyDeleteDoc's newsletter last night says:
ReplyDelete"Silver was turned down by its favorite pivot of 2011 at 33.50."
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI am confused...Last week, we were talking about the dollar putting a swing high, and now, 7 days later, we are calling an intermediate bottom??
33.50 provided good support when silver was being beaten down a month ago... and now its simply providing the good resistance...as it should.
ReplyDelete$33.50 has acted as support quite a few times but only as resistance once, briefly, in Oct.and yesterday and maybe today.
ReplyDeleteyes Doc did say that, it broke it pre-market i think it was up to 33.60. Hopefully we get some conviction regular market hours
ReplyDeletesophia,
ReplyDeleteWho said anything about an intermediate bottom? You either need to slow down and read the nightly reports more carefully, or you need to buy a subscription.
But Gary if the usd index doesn't stop falling right here we have a very strong double top and a sign that hyperinflation might be coming. Ithink that's very unlikely.
ReplyDeleteGary wrote...
ReplyDeleteBecause the dollar is getting deep in timing band for a cycle low and any rally will likely pressure all asset markets, at least to some degree, ....
by your updating of the stops, you seem to envision a sharper correction than just a normal cycle low on the $, so I am wondering, since you are very accurate in sensing danger, if you see more than a cycle low, and maybe a intermediate low...
I said IL, because I read a lot of blogs comments before sending you my comment and I retained that one...sorry
Good movement IMO for silver would be to have silver go up even when gold is neutral. If we return to a ratio of 30, Silver should be $58 based on gold at $1750. Unfortunately, too many have bad memories of silver and it's parabolic collapse.
ReplyDeleteJames,
ReplyDeleteA double top is not actually confirmed until price breaks below the bottom of the valley between the peaks. It looks like a double top. It smells like a double top. But it's not a confirmed double top yet. In other words, price can continue to fall only to bounce right around the valley floor (or fall slightly below the valley floor). If price does not continue to fall below the valley floor then we have a failed double top or at the very least a double top that did not resolved downward strongly. The dollar can sell off here wickedly to say, 74, and yet still have plenty of room to rally back to 85 and beyond. So no hyperinflation (just yet) even if there is a dollar sell off short term. FWIW.
Danno, I agree but having come off a 3-year low so weakly, the usd index can't endure much more damage. We need a cup and handle pattern right now.
ReplyDeleteselling some S&P here
ReplyDeleteJames,
ReplyDeleteLooking at a 10 year dollar chart I really don't see that much weakness. I'm seeing consolidation. And just this morning Merkel said it will take years to fix the EU mess. So the dollar may not be dead just yet, even if it takes a nose dive to 74 short term. I see the EU 'crisis' possibly ramping up in Q1 of next year. But who knows. Just guessing at the tea leaves. Whatever Gary says I would listen to.
gonna try a SPY short here at the vwap, 1257.
ReplyDeletenot that bearish long term but some sharp buy divergence in risk beginning yesterday. 10 year's caught a nice bid as well.
FYI,
ReplyDeleteDAX and CAC40 just lost 1% in the last 15 minutes, following the Euro...Clean up before the w/e? Quite possible...
St. Deluise,
ReplyDeletePlease be careful. $SPX MACD signal line is crossing over the center line. That is a BUY signal for many traders.
Okay. I'm done blabbing for the day. Good luck all.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThanks SherriB! Will look at the charts and come back to you, but already it is more understandable!
ReplyDeleteSt. D,
ReplyDeleteJust followed your lead with a small SPY put.
it is all about Italy 's bond yield..
ReplyDeleteSherriB,
ReplyDeleteJust had a look at the charts following your explanations, and it is indeed very clear! Thank you so much for your time...
Going to pick up my kids from school, have a wonderful w/e!!
big divergence between gold and GDX and even between GDX and the stock market
ReplyDeleteOne last one,
ReplyDeletesold my 2 contrats Gold bought at 1688, at 1755...Still long a bit, but cashing in some now for the w/e
Thanks Gary for all your help!
once again, stocks massively outperforming gold and miners
ReplyDeleteActually even with the down day in the HUI the miners are up 9.4% while the S&P is up 8.8%.
ReplyDeleteuup swing low
ReplyDeleteVeronica
ReplyDeleteWhat is your sell price for gold ?
Short gold futures 1755.
ReplyDelete33.50 proved to be a tad much for silver to overcome, if the dollar has indeed bottomed, then this may have to be put on hold for a week or two...depending on how the USD decides to act. Being RT, I dont see how the USD doesnt move above the previous cycles high.
ReplyDeleteWW:
ReplyDeleteGood call on an imminent dollar bottom, I was with you on this one.
Gold has stayed quite steady in the face of the dollar making a move out of its low while both silver and miners are reversing. Why not short miners in the event gold decouples and starts following the dollar?
Obviously you are expecting a drop in gold but from your experience, is this "delay" in gold following miners/silver down typical or is there anything more to read into it?
Other way to read the relative strength in stocks and gold is that this dollar rally is a headfake / gap fill. Time will tell...
ReplyDeleteVer,
ReplyDeleteMy view of miners are that they always anticipate Gold's moves ahead of time, when miners believe gold is going to $2000 we seen them make a new high, when they believe gold is going to $1500 we seen them make a new low...I believe miners are anticipating Gold testing the 150dma again. And as you know I have been bullish the dollar, which just made a swing low. Lets see what happens.
WW,
ReplyDeleteI don't believe the USD made a swing low. 79.38, or 79.41, depending on what chart you use, must be exceeded.
No official swing on the dollar yet although I think the bottom occurred two days ago.
ReplyDeleteDriver,
ReplyDeleteI use $DXY.
Not official swing, but like Gary said I believe the low is in being we are in the timing band.
ReplyDeleteI mentioned the other day that the dollar found its bottom on the 20dma, lets see if holds, a break and we will most likely see a failed daily cycle.
ReplyDeleteI think I just heard a pin drop...
ReplyDeletebuying back slw
ReplyDeleteSLV looking to fill the gap..
ReplyDeleteVery defined flags in UUP 5min and 10min charts. Appear to be resolving to the upside. Closed UUP shorts. Better safe than sorry.
ReplyDeleteI think the odds are pretty high that this morning's intraday high for gold was THE high for this daily cycle, and that we'll now be rolling over into an extreme left-translated and long daily cycle.
ReplyDeleteOn the spot gold chart, this morning's intraday high was pretty much an exact touch of the big trendline down from 1922 to 1803 to today's high.
Looking at the Bigger Picture, I think we're definitely still in the D-wave. Gold is going to roll over, and decline in a long daily cycle ( 30 - 35 days). By the end of this daily cycle, gold will bottom in its D-wave somewhere south of 1500.
I've been tracking this scenario closely for about 8 weeks now. I'll put up a post this weekend on why I believe this is the case.
In the meantime: good luck to everyone.
Gotta run!
(P.S. This morning's big disconnect between miners and gold also makes me believe today's high in gold might've been the high for this daily cycle. At one point, GDX was -2.45% while GLD was +.25% and SPX was also green. Miners typically lead gold. Just another possible clue, IMO.)
asuming FXE will be up on MOnday...
ReplyDeleteI posted this on the premium site:
ReplyDelete. . .
Keep in mind that we just saw a 7% up day for miners while gold struggled to gain 2%. We’re just seeing this re-balance, and on a weekly basis the HUI is up ~8% while gold is up ~4%. This 2:1 relationship really hasn’t changed, for the better or worse.
. . .
I just don't think we should read much into the miners, especially considering this week's action. That said, I do think there is a good chance gold put in a cycle top, or won't go much higher from here before rolling over but that's more a function of dollar strength and the stock market rally flaming out at the 200-day SMA (again).
rumors that "House and Senate Republicans are crafting a bill to stop the IMF bailout of Europe." The S&P dropped
ReplyDeleteI suddenly regret selling my UUP shorts. D'oh!
ReplyDeleteOr not. Sheesh what a boring day.
ReplyDeleteFolks you might want to consider whether or not you are trading or gambling.
ReplyDeleteThere are times where the correct strategy is just to sit in cash and wait. If you find that you are compelled to trade every day then you probably have a gambling problem.
Gold is holding up well...above the 75sma
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGood call on the stops, Gary.
ReplyDeleteThankfully, I lightened up a little yesterday also.
Don't think I'll be doing any more trading until next year so I can enjoy the holidays without stress.
(plus, I'm going to Paris!)
Gary, you did a fantastic job of shepherding us through these past few weeks. Thank you. You rock!
WW, good luck with your shorts. It was your contrarian viewpoint that led me to exit some shares yesterday. So thanks to you also for advising caution.
Good luck to all, and have the very best holidays ever!
Gary,
ReplyDeleteMany of us make a successful living day trading, its an insult to say we have a gambling problem. I have been day trading since 1999 and never had a gambling problem in my life.
WW,
ReplyDeleteIf you think you have an edge every single day then you are probably deluding yourself. You probably have a gambling addiction.
If on the other hand you have a mechanical system that triggers setups almost every day on an intraday basis then you are just trading your system.
Most people that feel compelled to trade every single day are just substituting the stock market for a casino.
WW,
ReplyDeleteI would also argue that very few people make any money day trading. Probably 99% of traders that try end up losing money. It is by far the toughest way to make money in what is undoubtedly one of the toughest businesses in the world.
If one really wants to stack the odds against themselves just take up day trading.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI agree that to many the market is a casino, but dont blanket statement day traders, its just nonsense.
WW, he didn't say all day traders are gamblers. He said there's trading and there's gambling, and if you feel compelled to be in a trade all the time, it's probably gambling. I've day traded for 11 years and there are plenty of days when I don't see an edge and don't take a trade.
ReplyDeleteI personally know many successful day traders. I guess we are in the 1% then.
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeleteYou most certainly are if you are successful.
Mutton,
ReplyDeleteLet me say this, I feel compelled to be in a trade everyday, because I make money everyday, even if I make $100 a day its profit. Its a job, not an addiction. Im not a gambler, never been, never will be.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteI understand where your coming from though, im sorry if I misunderstood.
I would also point out that the vast majority of day traders who claim to be successful are no different than the degenerate gambler that claims to make money gambling.
ReplyDeleteYou only hear about the Royal that paid out $5000. They never bother to tell you that it cost them $20,000 to win that $4000.
William Wallace,
ReplyDeleteNobody in the history of the world has ever made money every day. If one can make money 55-60% of the time they are doing great.
Dirtbags like that dont concern me, people like that are not in the same basket as me or any day trader I know.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteOfcourse there are losses, your right in saying nobody can make money every day. As long as im in the green every week I made money everyday is what I mean.
That's not what he meant. Don't be so sensitive! It's not all about you. What Gary said is true, there's a fine line between gambling and day trading, and the vast majority step over it. It doesn't matter how successful you personally are as a day trader (or your friends), that doesn't change the fact that many day traders have a gambling problem. To say that isn't so just because you don't have one, that's a logical fallacy.
ReplyDeleteLast hour, time to see how excited traders are to be holding long positions over the weekend!
ReplyDeleteMutton,
ReplyDeleteI think Gary can speak for himself, why are you interpreting to me what he said? I know what he said...but just in case I didnt I said that I apologize if I misunderstood him.
Gary said "If one can make money 55-60% of the time they are doing great."
ReplyDeleteGolden!
Mutton,
ReplyDeleteDid you miss this?
"Gary,
I agree that to many the market is a casino, but dont blanket statement day traders, its just nonsense."
December 2, 2011 12:07 PM
I gambled everyday for 25 years, I was self-employed. ;-)
ReplyDeleteElaine,
ReplyDeleteLOL
Elaine,
ReplyDeleteStop making me laugh, I dont want to laugh right now..lol. Gary made me mad :)
WW,
ReplyDeleteDid you miss this? "Gary didn't say all day traders are gamblers."
The vast majority of day traders fail. Many have a gambling problem. That's an empirical fact. If you are insulted by that fact just because you are a day trader, I can't help you.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteTalk to me about miners, why do you think the beating today?
Mutton,
ReplyDeleteTake a deep breath...its ok...LOL
I'll cover them in the weekend report.
ReplyDeleteInterestingly, despite the rocket blast in miners this week $BPGDM didn't flinch, and in fact it went down! It's going to be even uglier after today's action and near the levels seen at intermediate lows, even though GDX is 15% higher than price levels at those lows. Hmm...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p16301544739
Definition of gambling:
ReplyDeleteAn act of gambling; an enterprise undertaken or attempted with a risk of loss and a chance of profit or success.
Sounds like what we do with every trade.
Rus,
ReplyDeleteBut we do it using cycles and sentiment so it dont count. :)
Maybe we should figure out how we can apply cycles and sentiment to the casino's.
You win some, you lose some...its all the same.
Gary would be black balled from the casinos as his system is too good!
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell is going on with oil?
ReplyDeletejust went long a roll of scratcher tickets
ReplyDeletekidding.. but did just get a system sell in ES, target 1225.25 stop 1261.
i'll hold my current short here (from 1257) and add into any strength monday morning. the overnight moves have been a little... well, dramatic... lately so i'm not that keen on holding large anything over the weekend.
ver,
ReplyDeleteUS economy showing signs of improvement. Oil up.
World running out of easy to pump oil. Oil up.
Iran going to be attacked sooner or later. Oil up.
Just dont think fxe want to go down here
ReplyDeleteThanks WW for posting short.
ReplyDeleteNot with you on this one, will remain flat until sunday. Only daytrade when I can watch all day. I use 1-3% of trading money to day trade(swing trade). I'm with S.B. it's about risk allocation. Never had losing yr with that allocation but many a losing month. But in Gary's defense more profitable with my long term holds(gold stocks since 2002)
For what it's worth, have a friend who retired at 50, he was a bookie, that's form of daytrading I think. Had some well placed clients too, sort of like a small goldman sachs. He laughed cause I never messed with his casino, but took him on the golf course because I knew my risk parameters.
Riley
On the contrary, gambling is pure luck. Trading/investing should only be done when one has an edge.
ReplyDeleteIf one is taking day trades based on a guess or gut feeling, then they are gambling.
If one is day trading based on a proven and back tested system then you have an edge.
Is it gambling when your happy to be out with a nice profit, but can't wait to be back in when gary calls it! ;)
ReplyDelete"If one is taking day trades based on a guess or gut feeling, then they are gambling.
ReplyDeleteIf one is day trading based on a proven and back tested system then you have an edge."
Couldn't agree more. Though I personally never knew anyone who just traded on guesses or gut feelings, but im sure they are out there.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWould you onsider professional Poker players gamblers? I would.
There is very little luck involved in what they do. The best are consistantly profitable.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteYou yourself do a whole lot of "guessing" in this business....you constantly say "if I had to guess, I would say this DC or this IC is going to playout this way or that way" :)
WW,
ReplyDeleteBut I only trade in real time and only when I have an edge.
How many people have gotten in trouble trading on my expectations instead of following the model portfolio?
I know G.
ReplyDeleteHave a good weekend :)
Jnewman,
ReplyDeleteGood to hear from you, been wondering where ya been. I agree 99%, I dont think we will see gold south of $1500 though, all D-waves typically find a bottom on the 300dma (at $1527 now). The C-wave lower trendline is slightly above the 300 also.
WW,
ReplyDeletePicking up on our COT discussion from earlier in the week.
http://www.snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png
Small specs again covered a huge amount of shorts. Commercials liquidated a huge amount of longs. Open interest tumbles.
WW,
ReplyDeleteI've added the 75,150,300sma on my TOS chart... any other important ones i should add? I'm not a day trader or anything, just want to watch what you guys are watching. I always learn something new from your posts, so thank you!
C3X Portfolio Performance
ReplyDeleteMy goodness what a trading nightmare.
ReplyDeleteWhat we need there is to computerize it, to make more trades, faster. ;-) Enter Comp/MIT/GS.
ReplyDeleteSorry if a repeat, but it sure is curious that the $HUI fell 3% whereas $GOLD, $SILVER and $SPX were nearly flat for Friday. I know that some day that the $HUI leads gold, and also that the $HUI follows the $SPX, but that's not always so. Like Friday. Very odd to see this.
ReplyDeleteWhy did the $HUI sell off when apparently nothing else led/followed it down?
ReplyDeleteLast post ...
ReplyDeleteI play a bit of chess, and when the opponent pulls their queen back, watch out, as it's like cocking a gun before the spring forward bringing sure pain. So it makes me think that the $HUI dropping back is a springboard to launch it forward, even though charts don't show it oversold.
Well...happy to see you guys back to cash with me (although I have core insurance positions). I missed the pop earlier as I said and didn't chase gold.
ReplyDeleteGood job on taking some profits.
When each of you have time I suggest watching this over the weekend. It covers rather large and important obstacles the world and its economies (and financial system) are going to face. Really good guy. Really great speaker:
www.goldmoney[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/video/martenson-presentation.html
Bill,
ReplyDeleteI would say the HUI is probably telegraphing a move down in the metals as the dollar rallies. It was probably exacerbated by the large gap below.
WW
ReplyDeleteAs I was reading your debate with Gary/Mutton, I though that maybe you came up with your handle based on the Braveheart scene: "Hold, Hold!, Hold!", before they deployed the long spears. As I day trader, I often play that scene in my head as I seek only the best set-ups.
TZ, great video!
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing.
Gary
ReplyDeleteCould you imaging trying to follow " fast trader" ? Subs cell phones would be going off all day with "portfolio change" about 8 to 10 times a day. Great for generating commissions but some of us still have 9 to 5 jobs.
Thanks for the > 25% in this frigging crazy market.
John,
ReplyDeleteYou are correct, and the SMA's are my spears.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteI also watched the video. It is a must view for those with resource investing mindset. Thanks for posting.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting that video.
"It's the money system that's poorly DESIGNED, there is nothing wrong with the world and how it was CREATED"
TZ
ReplyDeleteVideo was great. I wonder how Miners can survive during oil shocks
stoker, im a professional poker player but im not a gambler
ReplyDeletei dont bet on sports, horses, nor in the casino, just poker
TZ,
ReplyDeleteRegarding the video link, Chris Martinsen's message may be right in the long long term but just beware in March 2011 after the Japan Earthquake, he went on all RED alert predicting global "hell in a handbasket" any moment due to supply chain disruptions etc etc, world GDP contractions.
Nothing dramatic ever happened so far.
We seem to be still on the slow painful road to hell but certainly not due any after effects of Japan earthquake.
John,
ReplyDeleteWW also has a big heart like Braveheart, so he was nicknamed most appropriately on this SMTP blog.
does jim rodgers seriously think gold will only go to $2400? does anybody here believe in this target?
ReplyDelete5,000 minimum....
ReplyDeleteClarkatroid - yeah thats about what i thought. You can actually calculate risk/reward ratios per hand so it feels much much more like trading than gambling.
ReplyDeleteHere's what my pea brain thinks after a fast and furious ride on my bike:
ReplyDeleteAs we know, gold is in a triangle consolidation pattern, and silver is bear flagging on the weekly. I think that these 2 are about to bust out of their consolidation patterns. Why? Call it QE3 (the world's CB's are now officially printing, as a policy, in unison, as of last week).
I have no idea where the S&P nor the HUI will go - up or down I don't know - but I think that gold and silver will both rise steady and far from here. COT is also unbelievably low. And seasonality is still here. It's only early Dec. I say we rally until March.
I no longer watch the USD as a sign on gold, as I think the time has come that gold is it's own entity. The USD and the Euro will dance yin-yang style irrespective of gold and silver, the former pair down the drain, and the latter pair up to who knows how far.
I'm 100% in cash now, but will look for signs to buy. If we go lower and turn w/out making a lower low, that would be very bullish.
... or if we do make a lower low, if it's divergent on the daily or 60 min chart, that too would be bullish.
ReplyDeleteOne more thing on the $USD (which again I don't care about now, as a sign for gold). Although Friday looks like a reversal candle, the MACD (I use PPO) - which is an indicator of MOMENTUM - is hooking over and about to give a sell signal. So Friday's candle means nothing to me as it's only 1 day - the momentum has slowed and is about to go down. It might to up, but it'd be a divergent high I bet.
ReplyDeleteI hope it does go up a bit, so that gold will go down a bit, and then I get in gold.
One more last babble if I may ...
ReplyDeleteIf the global CB's are buying stocks as they apparently did last Mon/Tues, then they are surely NOT DONE yet. I see Thur/Fri's action in the S&P as merely the foot off the gas. It will be back on the gas again whenever they want. They are not done yet.
The daily $USD chart has pretty strong neg divergence in the MACD in this last push up. Looks like a double-top.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised that we're expecting to learn anything from the move down in miners on Friday. I think the reality is a lot simpler and less exciting: the HUI made an epic 7% move on a day that gold barely moved 2%, then it got extremely stretched above the 10-day SMA and retraced 50% of the move two days later. This whipping back and forth around the 10-day while gold grinds away is classic HUI behavior.
ReplyDeleteTaking a step back, the HUI still ended the week up 6.99% while gold ended up 3.87%, continuing the trend of magnifying gold's move by ~2x. This relationship has held steady throughout this intermediate cycle, and is easiest to see in a relative performance chart of GDX vs. a 2x leveraged gold ETF like UGL starting from the beginning of October when miners botomed: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:UGL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p17125340624.
Has anyone seen data or backtested the "miners bottom/top ahead of gold" hypothesis? I know we've seen enough instances anecdotally where this seems to be the case, but given how volatile the HUI is relative to gold and it's tighter coupling to the stock market, I wonder if it's just plain random (for example, miners bottomed before gold's July ICL but after gold's September ICL).
Just a few thoughts. Have a great weekend everybody!
TZ
ReplyDeleteveiwed the video thanks. there is much to think about in the come years/days also.
I'm pretty sure all markets, including gold, are waiting to see if the dollar can break through that double top. If it does then the stock market has probably seen it's last test of the 200 DMA and gold probably has high odds of grinding down into a B-wave bottom sometime in the early spring.
ReplyDeleteGDX has formed a triangle on the charts. The gap is near the lower trendline. I'm leaning bullish meaning the USD double top needs to hold.
ReplyDeleteThe stock market formed a triangle too. We know how that worked out. Best just to wait and see what the dollar does than put your faith in lines on a chart.
ReplyDeleteI think it's pretty unlikely gold will be able to generate another big move for a while even if the dollar does sink. The kind of rally gold produced from 09 till recently is going to have to consolidate for several months to a year before another big leg up. Gold might test $1900 but I doubt we will see any big moves above that level for quite a while.
BBPoint, My system has not established a stop yet.I will check again at gold open but I'm having some software issues right now so can't make any promises.
ReplyDeleteGuys, I was thinking about stepping up my game to an Imac...computer is old and when I have the stocks up it really sounds like the computer is laboring. I was looking at the refurbished ones....they are a little cheaper. Any thoughts?
ReplyDeleteYou are talking to the wrong person about technical stuff and computers. I'm just proficient enough to get out the nightly reports and that's about it.
ReplyDeleteHaggerty,
ReplyDeleteThe reason I went from a Mac to a PC many years ago was because a Mac didn't have the stock market software that the PC developers offered. Maybe now is different.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteWindows 7 PCs are cheap and nearly problem free. XP Pro was a huge leap forward and Windows 7 is nearly flawless. You don't need a MAC unless that's what you really want. Speed is no longer a concern with computers unless you play video games (then you need a dedicated video card as opposed to just plugging your monitor into the mother board video port).
Whatever you decide you should not have to spend much money. Even a new laptop under $500 from Staples will work great. You can plug a widescreen monitor into it, as well as a full sized keyboard and mouse, plus throw the laptop into your car and take it to Starbucks or the library or on vacation or whatever.
The only reason you might want to spend over $500 on a new computer is if you want multiple monitors for day trading so that you can watch multiple real time charts simultaneously.
Mac
ReplyDeleteHaggerty,
ReplyDeleteGo with a Mac. I love mine. Still runs as smoothly as it did in July 2008. The Apple build quality is so solid.
And should you have a problem or question, I have found the Apple Store tech people to be great.
Yeah, I've used Windows 7. Vastly better than Win XP...but the comparison that matters for you is Win 7 vs. Mac OS X. Apple is still the leader in the OS wars. And if there's a Windows program you just half to run, you can buy a program from VM Ware called "Fusion." It runs Windows on your Mac. Simple.
These days, the computer is the most important piece of electronic equipment most of us own. It's certainly important enough to pay a premium for.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWilliam Wallace said...
ReplyDeleteJnewman,
Good to hear from you, been wondering where ya been. I agree 99%, I dont think we will see gold south of $1500 though, all D-waves typically find a bottom on the 300dma (at $1527 now). The C-wave lower trendline is slightly above the 300 also.
December 2, 2011 2:33 PM
WILLIAM WALLACE--
Thanks. I hope you and everyone in here are doing very well.
I've been running on a bunch of different things.
And thanks for the tip on D-waves. I'll try to check it out.
All the best!
catbird said...
ReplyDeleteHaggerty,
Go with a Mac. I love mine. Still runs as smoothly as it did in July 2008. The Apple build quality is so solid.
And should you have a problem or question, I have found the Apple Store tech people to be great.
Yeah, I've used Windows 7. Vastly better than Win XP...but the comparison that matters for you is Win 7 vs. Mac OS X. Apple is still the leader in the OS wars. And if there's a Windows program you just half to run, you can buy a program from VM Ware called "Fusion." It runs Windows on your Mac. Simple.
These days, the computer is the most important piece of electronic equipment most of us own. It's certainly important enough to pay a premium for.
December 4, 2011 3:44 PM
*************
I agree with catbird. All Macs here, and their "bug freeness" and reliability are simply beautiful.
I had Tradestation on Mac (and will be getting it again shortly here), and did it by using the Fusion program he talked about. Never had a problem and it worked like a charm.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteWindows 7 is SOLID. I'm currently running Windows 7 on a Pentium 4 with only a gig of ram (2003 hardware). That in itself should speak volumes.
If you want to overpay for computer hardware, buy Apple.
If you want the best bang for your buck, buy an Intel quad core Sandy Bridge from Dell or HP. Toss in a 60GB solid state drive to use as a boot drive and you'll have a computer that will last you for many years to come.
Two more videos:
ReplyDeleteAnother with martenson:
www.zerohedge[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/news/chris-martenson-discusses-future-europe-and-global-economy
and then Kyle Bass from whom you will here many similarities (and investment takes):
www.youtube[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/watch?v=5V3kpKzd-Yw
both highly recommended
OK, guys. I found a free site that lets me do ratio charts for 10yrs and I updated the "HUI vs. Straight Metal" argument chart so you can see results of the last 6-9 months. Nothing has changed:
ReplyDeleteimageshack[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]us/photo/my-images/507/hui2cef.png/
This is simply a ratio of the $hui (GDX essentially) against "Straight Metal" as embodied by CEF which is roughly 50/50 gold and silver in a vault.
I have drawn clear GENERAL lines on the chart showing that stocks won until 2004. Since 2004 the GENERAL TREND has been down and shows no sign of change yet as of last friday.
To those of you who will start to argue again that "oh.. but GDX beat CEF during last wednesday from 11:52am until 1:34pm" or some similar statement I refer you to the words GENERAL above.
I have no interest in arguing small periods of outperformance with anybody who can't understand that such an argument is meaningless if they are only visible in hindsight and if the GENERAL trend maintains a downward trend. A GENERAL downward trend simply means that the ODDS of you getting it right are against you and I don't play against the odds.
Yes, at SOME point the stocks will outperform. I agree.
But *for now* the trend on this chart is clear and if you want to GUESS when the trend will end instead of WAITING until the chart SHOWS you a change (and staying with metal until then), then be my guest. I will not be joining for now.
(As a PS note, I would suggest that the ratio climbing to the clear resistance zone of 30+ would suggest the trend is changing.)
And note that the guessing about outperformance has been going on since...
ReplyDelete2004...
2005...
2006...
2007...
2008...
2009...
2010...
2011...
that's a DARN long time to be getting it wrong for hopes of EVENTUALLY getting it right. Metal is already safer with much less risk, so if the stocks can even keep EVEN let alone outperform then what is the purpose of buying them unless you just like gambling on "I just *know* i'm gonna roll a 7 THIS time".
Just how I see it.
I know we have had this argument before. Most already know and there is no need to discuss.
I just wanted to update the chart and show people the current data.
Haggerty
ReplyDeleteWith the coin you've made here, treat yourself and buy a Mac. Its a superior product. While your at it, by an iPad 3G so you can keep up with Gary's trades.
One of the takeaways of the various Chris Martenson and Kyle Bass interviews (among other info out there) is that while the US is a mess, we are much LESS of a mess than a few other countries which are up FIRST through the grinder.
ReplyDeleteTherefore they are directly and indirectly arguing for a HIGHER dollar for at least a while until it is our turn at the disaster party.
Bob Hoye and Ross Clark are predicting a continuing dollar rally as well.
So all of this might help clear up the ongoing debate of "dollar up or down?" including comments by gary.
It seems to be 'dollar up' for a while until focus comes to the US.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteWe are a 5 mac and 3 pc household. Yep, we have a lot of computers. That said, I work mostly on a mac, but am forced to do some stuff on a pc.
Whenever my husband's pc crashes we get on the internet ON MY MAC and download the patches, repairs, virus software and then transfer it to a cd or flash drive for his pc.
So, in my opinion, get a mac.
;-)
One of the things Hoye/Clark are basing their "dollar higher" calls on is a 15-17yr cycle as seen in their first chart here:
ReplyDeletewww.321gold[PUT.DOT.HERE.TO.FIX]com/editorials/hoye/hoye100611.html
GARY,
ReplyDeleteYOu should take a look at that dollar cycle chart previous post.
Haggerty,
ReplyDeleteAdditionally, on the refurbs, if you buy them from Apple they come with a one year warranty. I have an i5, MacPro 15" laptop that I bought as a refurb, it's a really good computer. The iMacs are quite powerful, the 27" is a beauty.
S and P futures +9 out of the gate tonite
ReplyDeleteMaybe I can make enough money this year to get the new Porsche Cayman R,
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/2012-porsche-cayman-r-2011-12-03?link=MW_popular
Brent rises above $110
ReplyDeleteUltrabooks will spark 'stalled' Windows platform. http://cnet.co/stniCw
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteThanks for all the informative posts.
The fly in the ointment for the "dollar up" scenario in the near term is the extreme bearish sentiment in the Euro. This could precipitate a strong euro rally in the near future.
Morning all, Thanks for the feedback!
ReplyDeleteThis SnP strength is confusing me... and its rather silly, considering oil shooting over 100, making it unsustainable.
ReplyDeleteThe more and more I think about it, there is so many ways this thing can go,(Dollar,Gold,Market) I really believe being on the sidelines and waiting for a clearer picture, is the right move.
ReplyDeleteI don't know why people continue to try and make cycles do something they aren't designed to do. You just can't pick tops with cycles. Anyone who claims to use cycles for spotting tops is just plain lying to you.
ReplyDeleteadding to friday's SPY short here around 1260, very close to system stop at 1266, target still 1222.
ReplyDeletebuy volume basically at friday's lows already, gap fill down seems probable.
I'm back from vacation and well rested. Sure enough the HUI isn't too far from that 570 level I was hoping/expecting to see by the time I got back.
ReplyDeleteI'm still long all my miners, and might even nibble on some more this week, raising my total portfolio risk a couple percentage points. Haven't decided as yet.
Happy trading! :)
Reloaded dollar shorts. Odds favor dollar weakness either this week or next due to the fact that the EU is clearly going to drum up some good news shortly. Surely temporary, but enough to smack the dollar a bit or at least cap it for a while. This is my take FWIW. Playing the odds.
ReplyDeletealso nota bene: on the radio this morning everyone saying stuff like "wellll! looks like ANOTHER huge day in store for us, maybe 100 DOW points or more!!"
ReplyDeletein terms of meaningless sentiment :)
Once SPX gets rolling I rarely, if ever, short it. The irrational exuberance can simply get out of control at times and break every rule in the book.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGold/silver/miners are going to be GOING DOWN BIG over the next 5 weeks or so, IMO. (I mentioned this in a short post on Friday.)
ReplyDeleteMy main evidence for saying this won't be very satisfying to you though (and I apologize for that), because this prediction is mainly based on a proprietary indicator combination that I've developed. I'm happy to share the signals with everyone, but I hope you'll understand if I don't share the nitty-gritty details on what these indicators are, because they took me an INCREDIBLE amount of time to develop. (A lot of Edison-style experimenting.)
Basically, I took 2 standard indicators and changed them in various ways, and then learned to use them together -- in combination -- in such a way that they show me Hidden Weakness or Hidden Strength in price.
Hidden Weakness = "No matter what it looks like, this price rally is a fakeout of sorts, and price will be heading back to the downside".
And Hidden Strength is just the opposite: "No matter what it looks like, this price decline is a fakeout of sorts, and price will be heading back to the upside".
Of course, much of the time, these indicators are not throwing off signals. Much of the time they're saying: "This price rally is for real" or "This price decline is for real". They only sometimes show Hidden Weakness or Hidden Strength in price.
To give you some basis for judging what I'm saying: I've only been using this indicator combination for about 9 months now. And I haven't done extensive backtesting for them. In the 9 months I've been using them, they've been reliable, especially when they appear on the longer-term daily and weekly charts.
Anyway, this indicator combination has been screaming Hidden Weakness in gold on the daily chart ever since the big 1533 low (all prices I use are spot gold) in September: "This rally in gold is a fakeout of sorts, and price will be heading back to the downside in a big way". This signal and this Hidden Weakness pattern on the daily chart are very strong. Even as gold rallied all the way to 1803, this signal and this pattern never disappeared, and they're still very much on the chart right now.
With this, to me, very strong piece of evidence in hand, I feel I'm then able to judge the validity of a large possible Elliott Wave pattern I've been following in gold for about 8 weeks now.
ReplyDeleteA classic big correction in Elliott Wave is 3 waves down:
*A wave down: made up of 5 waves;
*B wave up: made up of 3 waves;
*C wave down: made up of 5 waves.
Gold has been following this pattern very closely since the 1921 all-time high, IMO. (All of this stuff is much easier seen on 24-hour spot or futures charts than on the "spotty" GLD charts.)
*A wave down: 5 waves down from 1921 to 1583 on September 28, which was a truncated 5th wave. The big 1533 low was the bottom of the large 3rd wave down;
*B wave up: 3 waves up from that 1583 to the 1803 high on November 7;
*C wave down: 5 waves down from that 1803 high..........
When I combine this Hidden Weakness signal that is very strong in gold, with this possible Elliott Wave pattern, I conclude that that EW pattern is for real and will play itself out (because that Hidden Weakness signal says gold is definitely heading back to the downside, and that EW pattern also says we're heading to the downside. The Hidden Weakness signal confirms the EW pattern.)
That would mean we're now already in the big C wave down -- made up of 5 waves -- of this massive correction in gold. We've had Wave 1 down from 1803 on November 7 to 1666 (the daily cycle low) on November 20. And then we've had Wave 2 up, which probably ended on Friday at 1763. Which means gold should be in the process of rolling over to enter the big Wave 3 down, to be eventually followed by Wave 4 up and Wave 5 down to finally finish off this huge correction. (Check today's, Monday's, stochastics on the daily chart for GLD and you'll see the rollover in gold I'm talking about.)
As to where gold will bottom if all this is true: Alf Field, who Jim Sinclair has called the best and most accurate gold analyst in the world, has set out 3 downside targets for gold (he said 2 1/2 weeks ago that he thought there was a 40% chance that gold would re-visit the downside. I think it's more on the order of an 85 - 90% chance):
*1511 (21% correction);
*1478 (where gold bottomed in late June (the Intermediate Cycle low) before launching a rocket to the upside);
*1416 (26% correction. And Alf doesn't mention it, but if the C wave down = the A wave down (-389 points), gold would get to this level.)
When I looked at this question of downside targets 3 or 4 weeks ago, I came up with 1450 - 1420 as the most likely bottom. 1450 is a big round number down in the likely bottoming range. And 1430 - 1420 is the zone where gold topped back in December. So this area of strong horizontal resistance should now be strong horizontal support.
Anyway, the long and the short of it is that I believe gold is definitely still in its big D wave correction, and that this new daily cycle we're in has basically just topped and is rolling over into an extreme left-translated and long (35 days?) daily cycle. It will bottom in about 5 weeks somewhere around one of the above bottom targets, and that bottom will be the end of the D wave and this Intermediate Cycle. We will then start the A wave up and a new Intermediate Cycle.
I apologize to Gary and everyone here for the length of this post and for the fact that I haven't yet learned how to post my charts on the Internet. (Just haven't had the time.)
I just wanted to share this signal and this prediction with everyone, so you could at least be on your toes for what might happen (and for what I think has a very high probability of happening).
Gotta run. Good trading to all!
P.S. Alf Field's downside targets and analysis appear at the end of this speech: http://www.safehaven.com/article/23442/alf-field-sees-gold-going-to-4500-heres-why
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDelete"In the '9 months' I've been using them"
ReplyDelete"And I haven't done extensive backtesting for them."
No offence but i think those two statements sum up both those lengthy posts.
JHnewman -
ReplyDeleteWow!! - Maybe you should take some time off. Take a little vacation, get some exercise . . . Developing your "proprietary indicator" that you can't disclose seems to have damaged your brain. Seems like your secret indicator can be used to convince yourself of any outcome. Good luck with that! - But just in case you're right, going to sell everything. Thanks for the tip!
Vistor - no need to be an a$$hole about it...
ReplyDeleteShow some class
I have an indicator that i have been following my whole life and it has been extensively backtested. It is telling me to head to the bathroom.
ReplyDeleteCompletely out and sitting in cash. Thanks JHnewman!
ReplyDeleteWill await your next call. Please post here.
You could sense that the rally in GDX and SLV wasn't going to hold today....glad Gary has us sitting safely on the sidelines.
ReplyDeleteJHnewman Ahh, it sounds like you too have discovered the same or a very similar way of analyzing the market that I use. I only have time for corn, soy, and e-mini s&p markets as it does take time to 'run the numbers' each day and I already have a job that is more than full time. I am currently giving away my trades on my blog at mythreemarkets here on blogger, blogspot for entertainment. I wish you good fortune with your system and thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteJHnewman, good luck with your system :o)
ReplyDeleteClosed UUP puts. Leaning bearish on that HUI/GDX triangle. Looks like a NL test of the H&S bottom on USD. Bought some UUP calls.
ReplyDeleteThanks jhnewman, always enjoy your posts. After 11 up years in PM's its about time we shake off some of the bullish excess in this bull.
ReplyDeleteAnd some of that bullish excess just posted above.
The metals haven't been looking very strong lately.
Gold continues to hit hard resistance at the upper trendline drawn from the 1923 high down to the 1804 high, and crawl the 75dma. When the 75dma is broken we will most likely see gold test the 150dma again within a couple of days.
ReplyDeletegpl turns red...that is not a good sign
ReplyDeleteGLD is currently overbought, needs to blow off some steam and should really close that gap before it is free to move higher without everyone looking back over their shoulders. That's all I am seeing here FWIW. Chart looks healthy to me.
ReplyDeleteI have discovered a marvelous formula which predicts the price of gold daily for the next 5 years. Sadly it is too large to be contained within the margins of this blog.
ReplyDeleteSmall position SDS calls.
ReplyDeleteFolks, there really is no need to post every trade you make here on the blog. I think I can safely say that no one here cares or will even remember any of your trades.
ReplyDeleteWhere you need to record it is in your personal trading journal so you can learn from your profits and losses.
Looks like Jimmy's not real bullish right now...
ReplyDeletehttp://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com
Just giving others ideas. Besides my last 3 trades turned out well after posting so I can't stop as long as its working.
ReplyDelete