I don't know what the portfolio change is....but I'm in for a starter position (15% of portfolio) on DGP (51.10) and SLV (28.45)...will add more once I see the portfolio change.
>Gurvir is working on it now. I told him to add more the last time but maybe it still wasn't enough.
It is likely not the bandwidth. It is the code that generates each page on the fly. Your pages are not cached, every request queries the database for all current commments and then generates a page with your writing and then the comments under it.
If a new person posts 1 second later, the code generates a new page with that extra comment when a person retrieves it.
The solutions would be either: 1) Put your writings on ONE page that is static. Put comments on a second link/page where the code actively shows the comments.
2) Compile or otherwise accellerate the code that creates each page. You are probably using a scripting language and there are a few methods of accellerating most such codes. One way would be for the comments (and the entire page) to only update every 2-5min instead of whenever a new post comes in).
3) Switch to a different blog system which caches the pages better or runs faster code.
3a) EASY: TURN OFF IMAGES...That big mountain image uses a LOT of bandwidth. If you just serve pages instead it helps. Takes the load off the entire system to just process text.
4) Just use DISQUS for your comments which shifts the load to their system but keeps your pages
Volume on the 1 min is high into this last puke, so we are VERY close to that DCL. Not worth catching it though you know what you're doing or you're very aggressive like WW :) anything could happen.
Will have to see over the next 2-3 days if it can recapture the 200 dma. This is the strongest bull market over the past 4 years and i can't see how it would slice through the 200 dma on it's first try.
The rubber band is a bit stretched and a mean reversion play 'might' be at hand.
Let me expand on one of my suggestions for the site.
Most sites use use automated code to create a page. Yours has automated code that shows your post and then all CURRENT comments below it.
This code runs FULLY each and EVERY time a person hits your site.
One great speed up is for a process to run this code ONCE every MINUTE (or TWO) and then dump the resulting STATIC page into the webserver directory.
Then, all requests coming in for the current update will get served this single static page by the webserver...over and over again...hundreds of times a minute. Never causing any code to run or database query, etc.
The webserver keeps serving this same FIXED page until the OTHER CODE (1 or 2 minutes later) runs AGAIN, creates a new static page (with all the current comments that came in in the last 1-2 min) and then dumps this new static page into the webserver directory.
The the webserver dishes that out for 1-2 min.
SO..if you send out 200 pages in 1 minute, the difference is either: 1) the entire page code runs 200 times to query your comment database, construct a page,and then send it out...when each one of those pages is likely to be IDENTICAL (or off by 1 or two comments). or
2) the page code runs ONCE and then 200 of the same copies are sent out for the next min before the code runs again.
200:1 improvement. no signficant change to the result other than comments possibly taking on average 30 seconds to show up.
Google does this for example, note that when you post here at the top is says "your commment will appear briefly". Same thing.
Damn, didn't fill my second position of GDX calls. This is the first time since Feb 2010 that I am buying GDX calls. Take that indicator if you think it is worth anything.
DeMark update from Kevin Depew's twitter feed @kevindepew Euro WEEKLY TDST Down level support is at 1.2867. WEEKLY on Bar 6 down of a BUY setup. To qualify a break of 1.2867, we need an up weekly close, followed by a down weekly close below that level, then a down open. As we are on a down week, the 1.2867 level cannot be qualified for at least 3 weeks now. German DAX DAILY on bar 7 down of potential TD Buy Setup 9. SP pit - disqualified TD Prop Down momentum in at 1212.30. As the last three days now have been down closes, this cannot be qualified. We need an up close, so the earliest this could be qualified is on Monday. We still need a SP high > 1267.20 for the DAILY TD Sequential Sell signal to record on SP. MONTHLY requires a high above 1327. Nasdaq already recorded this MONTHLY SELL signal in April, so we are over half way through that one. Depew points out that the Russell (RTY) is most interesting and bullish of the major indices from a DeMark point of view. Unfortunately, we probably won't get a high exceeding 752.71 to confirm last week's bullish price flip. AAPL having a good reaction to its DAILY SELL setup so far. NEM not so much to its BUY signal - sorry gold bugs! Mclellan oscillator on thinkorswim is getting crazy low again, -180 as I type. It went as low as -320 closing basis on November 25, so could have more room to fall. But with Cramer touting DefCon 2 last night and performance chasers trying to break even for the year, we might just get a 0% return in stocks this year. That sure doesn't help those pension funds...
z, all good suggestions. The comments, imo, should be on a link off to the side at all times, the login page should be spartan. Even people who aren't members can get the comment feed to load (redacted) but nevertheless taking up a lot of bandwidth. imo all the content should be on a page loaded only after logging in which drastically reduces the bandwidth. Generally a photo will be cached by the browser and loaded just the first time, so long as it's URL is unchanged.
This snap back should be fast and furious over the next 4-5 trading days.
If you pull up the daily chart on GLD. Every time GLD is a FULL candlestick bar below the BB band, it has always been a good risk/reward trade to go long. The action might look scary and breathtaking but on a risk/reward scale, it doesn't get any better than this for those looking to play long.
We may see gold tag my 300dma target sooner than later. Looking to add at the 300. As I mentioned a break of the 200dma and I think gold will waterfall to the 300dma.
This is why I always say never trust price levels (like $1600), once a major moving average is breached it just accelerates the decline to the next major moving average. I prepared everyone for this for months.
I think the low is happening right around here at 1570. When i think the low is in I will move up my stop to the low and attempt to increase position higher.
at ease, Ouch, it's definitely a blood bath. This got uncomfortable really fast. I guess good news is that the 1535 range is that much close lol. Someone bring me a puke bucket.
Scary part is the general stock market oscillators (RSI, stochs) are not even close to being in strongly oversold terrotory. GDX's isn't at panic levels yet either.
One scenario i think is possible is a quick and likely very scary intraweek trip down below 490 on the HUI. That 490 level has held up like a champ on the weekly chart. If we close below there on the weekly, I think this will turn into 2008 redux. Mike Maloney's thesis is lookingore and more likely each day--hyperdeflation followed by hyperinflation when they go apesh!t with the printing presses.
All that being said, gold itself is due for a decent ST bounce. Stochs are ridiculously oversold.
Im actually adding on the way down, but will load the boat on a swing low on a daily because I believe as I said earlier that if gold lost the 200dma we would see an intermediate bottom shortly.
Sophia, It's time like this when traders wonder if maybe they should be doing something more productive with their lives. There are 1,000 different ways to become a multimillionaire. None of the multimillionaires I have known personally made their money trading stocks. So there is hope beyond this silliness we are involved in. The first female billionaire in China made her money by shipping used cardboard from the USA back to China and recycling it.
"It's time like this when traders wonder if maybe they should be doing something more productive with their lives. There are 1,000 different ways to become a multimillionaire. None of the multimillionaires I have known personally made their money trading stocks. "
Some truth to this. But all those hedge funds, fund managers, W. Buffet, G. Soros, Jim Rogers and even Gary can dispute this.
DJ Boehner Reflects On Summer Golf Victory With Obama 14-Dec-2011 By Kristina Peterson Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--One day after commandeering the finicky House's approval of a year-end legislative package, House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) reminisced about another of this year's tense moments: his highly-watched summer golf outing with President Barack Obama.
In his telling, Boehner was the picture of calm as he met on the links in June with the president, Vice President Joe Biden and Ohio Governor John Kasich at the height of the summer's congressional feud over raising the country's debt limit.
"The president called and invited me to play golf and I gave a lot of thought to who I was going to bring," before deciding on Kasich, Boehner recalled Wednesday at a Politico breakfast. Kasich quickly descended into a ball of nerves, "sitting in the car, jumping around," Boehner said. "I said 'Kasich, calm down--they're going to be more nervous than we are,'" Boehner said, reassuring the governor that Biden would have been out on the Andrews Air Force Base golf course for an hour, hitting balls in preparation for the Republican golfing duo. Sure enough, Biden appeared in a shirt that was "sopping wet," Boehner chuckled.
TZ, I wanted to test the site and see if the changes Gurvir made this morning were sufficient to handle a spike in traffic. Obviously they weren't so the next step is to purchase more bandwidth.
Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. The information included in The Smart Money Tracker and The SMT subscribers daily updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. G.D.S L.L.C., nor Gary Savage, do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. GDS L.L.C., Gary Savage, will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, GDS L.L.C., Gary Savage, may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to hold such position.
131 comments:
.
premium down
Everyone must be trying to access the website....not getting through LOL
Nerve-wrecking!
Imagine there`s a little tension around the Savage home about now? Lol. The dogs are scurrying for cover........
Need more bandwidth.
I'm with you.
Picked up a few Feb Gold contracts at 1612.90.
:)
.
If the market holds up here gold's DCL is in.
Gary, can you send a text of what the portfolio change is? Thanks.
There are bank runs, and blog runs
Gurvir is working on it now. I told him to add more the last time but maybe it still wasn't enough.
I bought some GDX Jan 53s at the low around 09:50.
I don't know what the portfolio change is....but I'm in for a starter position (15% of portfolio) on DGP (51.10) and SLV (28.45)...will add more once I see the portfolio change.
Gary:
Your site is down or overwhelmed. I can't pull it up. Can you post it to the blog?
Here comes the stop run...
"Your site is down or overwhelmed. I can't pull it up. Can you post it to the blog?"
Same here. I've been waiting to get in for several minutes with no luck.
Gary,
unable to get on paid homepage-
Can't see the portfolio change ... perhaps you could post it here
Gary,
Being people are trying to follow you in real time, perhaps it's best to just post this trade here on the blog today?
Just a suggestion, as I'm sitting tight with what I have and unlikely to add as my accounts went into the red again this week.
Good luck!
There is a can of whoop ass being put on Gold right here!
First the internet was down in my area and now the premium website. Don't they know the 13th was yesterday ?
The rumor is that he bought used 99% of the model portfolio to buy GDX 45 December puts.
Doubt he's trying to catch a falling knife. Probably a end of day trade.
GDX testing the bottom of the 1.5 year range.
Entry here with stop below 50 looks like a good risk/reward trade.
GARY,
>Gurvir is working on it now. I told him to add more the last time but maybe it still wasn't enough.
It is likely not the bandwidth. It is the code that generates each page on the fly. Your pages are not cached, every request queries the database for all current commments and then generates a page with your writing and then the comments under it.
If a new person posts 1 second later, the code generates a new page with that extra comment when a person retrieves it.
The solutions would be either:
1) Put your writings on ONE page that is static. Put comments on a second link/page where the code actively shows the comments.
2) Compile or otherwise accellerate the code that creates each page. You are probably using a scripting language and there are a few methods of accellerating most such codes. One way would be for the comments (and the entire page) to only update every 2-5min instead of whenever a new post comes in).
3) Switch to a different blog system which caches the pages better or runs faster code.
3a) EASY: TURN OFF IMAGES...That big mountain image uses a LOT of bandwidth. If you just serve pages instead it helps. Takes the load off the entire system to just process text.
4) Just use DISQUS for your comments which shifts the load to their system but keeps your pages
Probably it is not urgent, end of the day if we have some kind of a swing
Volume on the 1 min is high into this last puke, so we are VERY close to that DCL.
Not worth catching it though you know what you're doing or you're very aggressive like WW :) anything could happen.
thx Frank, just did the same
can't get into the site gary
I'm ready with my next trade where I will buy gold if/when it breaks 1600. Got a buy near 1575.
The server load went to 85% just after Gary posted the update before it crashed the site. It's rebooting now.
.
I can't get Gary's site at all. Internet Explorer says the web site cannot be displayed. What f***ed up timing.
The OCT low I thought would hold has not. Now the just need to take out 1600 to get even more stops. I think they can.
Gary
could you just post the update, no one can get on the site
10:16am EST, can't get to the premium site yet. Hmm...
Putting the Long gold futures back on here. $1603
Will have to see over the next 2-3 days if it can recapture the 200 dma. This is the strongest bull market over the past 4 years and i can't see how it would slice through the 200 dma on it's first try.
The rubber band is a bit stretched and a mean reversion play 'might' be at hand.
hey, it may be a fortuitous blessing in disguise that we can't see the port change :)
Hey, I heard a rumor that some people can't get to the site. Is that true?
Gary, get your own website please, it really doesn't cost that much..
Can't get to the premium site either, just white screen.
test
GARY,
Let me expand on one of my suggestions for the site.
Most sites use use automated code to create a page. Yours has automated code that shows your post and then all CURRENT comments below it.
This code runs FULLY each and EVERY time a person hits your site.
One great speed up is for a process to run this code ONCE every MINUTE (or TWO) and then dump the resulting STATIC page into the webserver directory.
Then, all requests coming in for the current update will get served this single static page by the webserver...over and over again...hundreds of times a minute. Never causing any code to run or database query, etc.
The webserver keeps serving this same FIXED page until the OTHER CODE (1 or 2 minutes later) runs AGAIN, creates a new static page (with all the current comments that came in in the last 1-2 min) and then dumps this new static page into the webserver directory.
The the webserver dishes that out for 1-2 min.
SO..if you send out 200 pages in 1 minute, the difference is either:
1) the entire page code runs 200 times to query your comment database, construct a page,and then send it out...when each one of those pages is likely to be IDENTICAL (or off by 1 or two comments).
or
2) the page code runs ONCE and then 200 of the same copies are sent out for the next min before the code runs again.
200:1 improvement. no signficant change to the result other than comments possibly taking on average 30 seconds to show up.
Google does this for example, note that when you post here at the top is says "your commment will appear briefly". Same thing.
I love the smell of panic in the morning. Anyone buying on this @ these levels?
premium site back up
Of course most of your posts are not critical to within 10 min (i think everybody can get on now), but one day it might be.
(And also even if they arent' clearly subscribers panic cause they dont' know.)
Stocks continue to pressure gold.
Site is backup. Applying some cacheing scripts.
Going christmas shopping today.
Picked up GDX at 52.05.
Now, let's get this santa rally going.
I am thinking gold should close below 1600, before we see any recovery
Need to see $FXE go higher. $GLD still in deflation/plummet mode
Damn, didn't fill my second position of GDX calls. This is the first time since Feb 2010 that I am buying GDX calls. Take that indicator if you think it is worth anything.
DeMark update from Kevin Depew's twitter feed @kevindepew
Euro WEEKLY TDST Down level support is at 1.2867. WEEKLY on Bar 6 down of a BUY setup. To qualify a break of 1.2867, we need an up weekly close, followed by a down weekly close below that level, then a down open. As we are on a down week, the 1.2867 level cannot be qualified for at least 3 weeks now.
German DAX DAILY on bar 7 down of potential TD Buy Setup 9.
SP pit - disqualified TD Prop Down momentum in at 1212.30. As the last three days now have been down closes, this cannot be qualified. We need an up close, so the earliest this could be qualified is on Monday.
We still need a SP high > 1267.20 for the DAILY TD Sequential Sell signal to record on SP. MONTHLY requires a high above 1327. Nasdaq already recorded this MONTHLY SELL signal in April, so we are over half way through that one.
Depew points out that the Russell (RTY) is most interesting and bullish of the major indices from a DeMark point of view. Unfortunately, we probably won't get a high exceeding 752.71 to confirm last week's bullish price flip.
AAPL having a good reaction to its DAILY SELL setup so far. NEM not so much to its BUY signal - sorry gold bugs!
Mclellan oscillator on thinkorswim is getting crazy low again, -180 as I type. It went as low as -320 closing basis on November 25, so could have more room to fall. But with Cramer touting DefCon 2 last night and performance chasers trying to break even for the year, we might just get a 0% return in stocks this year. That sure doesn't help those pension funds...
Perfect timing, site came back up right at the low, back to even for me.
z, all good suggestions. The comments, imo, should be on a link off to the side at all times, the login page should be spartan. Even people who aren't members can get the comment feed to load (redacted) but nevertheless taking up a lot of bandwidth. imo all the content should be on a page loaded only after logging in which drastically reduces the bandwidth. Generally a photo will be cached by the browser and loaded just the first time, so long as it's URL is unchanged.
Cool, why pay for the premium when the trades are posted here...
gld #1 BOW
Kitco's site for iPad down
This snap back should be fast and furious over the next 4-5 trading days.
If you pull up the daily chart on GLD. Every time GLD is a FULL candlestick bar below the BB band, it has always been a good risk/reward trade to go long. The action might look scary and breathtaking but on a risk/reward scale, it doesn't get any better than this for those looking to play long.
Watch that potential inverse H&S on SPX. Could be a setup for a Christmas rally.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87827754513&a=241443770
Russel on December 8th the was a large BoW for GLD! Look were we are now! I don´t trust those numbers anymore!
WW, you still long?
.
I woke up tis morning and thought wow, what a great buying opportunity. That set my alarms off...
We may see gold tag my 300dma target sooner than later. Looking to add at the 300. As I mentioned a break of the 200dma and I think gold will waterfall to the 300dma.
WW, you still long position in futures?
The 11:00 sell off is here
It's interesting how the average expected downward resolution of the big triangle in Gold is 1520 to 1550 and WW's 300dma is 1536. Coincidence?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p39692854779&a=250964199
At ease,
Im long with a small position at 1603.
WW, My buy in is higher, had puter issues with blog sites. Hate to hold this to 300.
BACK LONG. Gold hit my 2nd target point.
Well, guess this is going down hard today. Preparing to get wiped out! Ahhhhhhhhhh
I smell blood
At Ease,
feeling your pain. Give it a few minutes, we`ll be at the 300, and then mai tais and yahtzee from there :)............
Interesting to note that GLD is lower than it was at the low on 9/26 since the low happened in Asia.
I'm about 1.25x.
Can't get anymore with my stop and be within my risk parameters. Risking about 2% on this trade.
THIS SHOULD HOLD HERE AND NOW if gold isnt going to break below 1535 (by my system and studies and such).
Time for the fetal position.
last one out of gold please turn the lights out......you can't afford to leave them on.
The low in Asia was at $1535. Gold is definitely putting in an intermediate bottom here. Maybe today.
86, hope it's quick!
This is why I always say never trust price levels (like $1600), once a major moving average is breached it just accelerates the decline to the next major moving average. I prepared everyone for this for months.
Gary,
where do you find 1535 in Asia? Does that not show up on the Kitco chart?
I will load the boat on the 300dma, with a stop below it.
I think the low is happening right around here at 1570. When i think the low is in I will move up my stop to the low and attempt to increase position higher.
If so Gary, could you please balance in the nightly report about the perspective for the next month especially from the cycle point!
at ease,
Ouch, it's definitely a blood bath. This got uncomfortable really fast. I guess good news is that the 1535 range is that much close lol. Someone bring me a puke bucket.
Are we having to use "word verifications" to post here or is it just me? Wondering as I changed networks / countries overnight and this is new for me.
The boat is fully loaded with hubris.
where is stop loss for your GDX position ? please answer on premium site
If we get a swing low before the 300dma, I will add.
Scary part is the general stock market oscillators (RSI, stochs) are not even close to being in strongly oversold terrotory. GDX's isn't at panic levels yet either.
One scenario i think is possible is a quick and likely very scary intraweek trip down below 490 on the HUI. That 490 level has held up like a champ on the weekly chart. If we close below there on the weekly, I think this will turn into 2008 redux. Mike Maloney's thesis is lookingore and more likely each day--hyperdeflation followed by hyperinflation when they go apesh!t with the printing presses.
All that being said, gold itself is due for a decent ST bounce. Stochs are ridiculously oversold.
NY spot gold hit $1,562. Is that close enough for you WW?
So 1570 or 1535, which will it be??? hmmm :)
Maybe I can make some from that point if it turns back up.
Ryan... LOL nothing like holding through an intermediate low. :)
Just got back and my heart stopped beating for 2 secs! Wow...long and suffering
margin selling today should be a feast!
WW:
a swing low on the 5 minute?
Lol Ryan..That was funny!
"I guess good news is that the 1535 range is that much close lol. Someone bring me a puke bucket."
Sophia, you are not alone, flew in to keep you company. :)
GLD seems to be riding the 250dma. Almost looks like it wants to hold here. The brutality of these PM sell offs never ceases to amaze me.
Gold is just shy of the C-wave lower trendline.
TZ,
What's your next buy signal below 1575?
I would wait til tomorrow or end-of-day.
We should close below 1600 today
wmp,
Im actually adding on the way down, but will load the boat on a swing low on a daily because I believe as I said earlier that if gold lost the 200dma we would see an intermediate bottom shortly.
Sophia,
It's time like this when traders wonder if maybe they should be doing something more productive with their lives. There are 1,000 different ways to become a multimillionaire. None of the multimillionaires I have known personally made their money trading stocks. So there is hope beyond this silliness we are involved in. The first female billionaire in China made her money by shipping used cardboard from the USA back to China and recycling it.
at ease,
did you just got into the UK? hope yu like our frosty weather!
hourly oversold on all indices, that thing should bounce back!!
Picked up a few more Feb gold at 1570...
Feels like the world is coming to an end. GDX back above 52.
Folks, relax we've been or seen this many times. Buying fear has worked quite well over the past decade in this sector.
.
"It's time like this when traders wonder if maybe they should be doing something more productive with their lives. There are 1,000 different ways to become a multimillionaire. None of the multimillionaires I have known personally made their money trading stocks. "
Some truth to this.
But all those hedge funds, fund managers, W. Buffet, G. Soros, Jim Rogers and even Gary can dispute this.
You guys crack me up..."puke bucket"...lol
WW, let me know when you see that swing low on futures? :)
Doubled my position and move stop up to the low 25min ago.
i'm glad the 260 dma stopped the down...
>What's your next buy signal below 1575?
A little above 1500.
I'm a bit distracted at the moment though.
:-)
Tense.
buying NSQ here...LOL
WHATEVER!!
DJ Boehner Reflects On Summer Golf Victory With Obama
14-Dec-2011
By Kristina Peterson
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--One day after commandeering the finicky House's approval of a year-end legislative package, House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) reminisced about another of this year's tense moments: his highly-watched summer golf outing with President Barack Obama.
In his telling, Boehner was the picture of calm as he met on the links in June with the president, Vice President Joe Biden and Ohio Governor John Kasich at the height of the summer's congressional feud over raising the country's debt limit.
"The president called and invited me to play golf and I gave a lot of thought to who I was going to bring," before deciding on Kasich, Boehner recalled Wednesday at a Politico breakfast. Kasich quickly descended into a ball of nerves, "sitting in the car, jumping around," Boehner said. "I said 'Kasich, calm down--they're going to be more nervous than we are,'" Boehner said, reassuring the governor that Biden would have been out on the Andrews Air Force Base golf course for an hour, hitting balls in preparation for the Republican golfing duo. Sure enough, Biden appeared in a shirt that was "sopping wet," Boehner chuckled.
TZ,
turn off the p0rn sites and stay focused man ;)
Sophia,
Just got in early this morning from VA.
Great weather!
NEW POST
I do not see any recovery today.
Wait tomorrow
ugh, website is down again.
SPX found support on the 75dma.
Gary-
Your web site is down again. Post to the blog.
TZ,
I wanted to test the site and see if the changes Gurvir made this morning were sufficient to handle a spike in traffic. Obviously they weren't so the next step is to purchase more bandwidth.
Gary, get your own website please, it really doesn't cost that much..
signs of the times,hahahaha
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