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Thursday, December 22, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A portfolio change has been posted to the website.

40 comments:

  1. I'm waiting for an hour or so before deciding (usually a recipe for losing money), but as I type gold is climbing...

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  2. Funny how there was absolute certainty behind this GDX trade.

    Never mind the reversal in gold and the Dollar that had already occurred when this trade was made folks. It's all about sentiment and cycles and how this is going to be the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes and we are all going to make 10,000%! Woooot!

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  3. See,
    Let me guess, you leveraged heavily???

    The trade is basically break even. The only reason to be upset is if you leveraged heavily, then you are down big.

    How many times must I beat people over the head with this before you listen?

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  4. Gary said:

    "How many times must I beat people over the head with this before you listen?"

    Gary, you should know that human emotions don't change.

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. No, I never trade on margin. But I've noticed that's the same cover you use anytime somebody criticizes how you on how you frame many of your trades.

    You have genuine talent Gary, but the mercurial nature of your views calls to question your analysis.

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  7. erm...seethruskin....we're flat on this trade. Why the gripe?

    If you don't like his writing style, go pick up a Faulkner novel, and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

    There's no pleasing some people.

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  8. See,
    You want certainty. You don't want to have to change your mind. I understand the feeling. I feel it every time I have to take o a loss. It's aggravating when the market doesn't do what you think it should do.

    If sentiment and breadth are any indication then gold should be rising and the dollar falling. That's what should happen and that's why we took the trade. Plus we have an obvious cycle low.

    However what should be happening isn't happening. That doesn't mean we shouldn't have taken the trade. When you get the kind of setup we had, you have to take that trade every time. But sometimes things just don't work like one thinks they should. When that happens it's better to cut and run quick and live to play another day.

    Would you rather get out of the trade flat with only your pride hurt? Or would you rather refuse to admit your wrong and lose a bunch of money?

    Unless you have plenty of money to burn I've found it's better to change my mind than lose money just because I was stubborn.

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  9. GLD/GDX: Gold & The Miners

    http://tinyurl.com/GDXGLD

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  10. Gary,

    I think you got everyone so lubed up with that '20 dollar for a loaf of bread' comment that some folks simply went a bit too far in positioning for it.

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  11. Gary,

    Does this move over the past 2-3 days change your position in the 'hyper-inflation' out look for 2012-2014?

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  12. I still think that is the most likely scenario, but if the dollar continues to rally in the face of extreme sentiment then the deflationary scenario is back on the table.

    Until these currency wars simmer down its going to be tough to get a sustainable trend anywhere.

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  13. see-

    If you stayed in, you are going to get your head handed to you. Gold has never traded strongly with any follow-through since we put this trade on. Now, it is below $1,600 and likely falling apart.

    Gary is right to change direction when the facts change. Capital preservation is job #1.

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  14. What were the safe trades for 2011?

    Volatility (VXX), gold (GLD), crude oil (BNO), the dollar (UUP) and U.S. Treasuries (TLT)

    via etfreplay.com

    http://tinyurl.com/6w96cdq

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  15. I think if one were to believe in the inflationary scenario for 2012-2014, anything below 1,600 is good entry with a stop below 1,500. I think we are simply getting way too cute on trading every wiggle and ultimately will under perform.

    If you look at the action of the Russell 2000, it's attempting to breakout of the 6 month downtrend.

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  16. We're up 23% while gold is down. How is that underperforming?

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  17. For the past 4-5 months?
    What about your performance for the past 10 years when gold is up over 600%. Has your portfolio gone up 600%?

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  18. Gary,

    You are making incorrect presumptions. I'm not disagreeing with the trade. I'm not disagreeing with your methods. I never expect certainty with any trade. I have no problem changing my positions on a dime. In fact I do it daily and I embrace it. I've learned a lot about cycles from you. It's just the ongoing pattern of absolute certainty with which you frame your trades. You've established all this credibility with your subscribers based on your knowledge of cycles and how you trade. But when you set grandiose expectations and then the trade doesn't pan out, it chips away at trust. It's fine that trades don't pan out, but it eats away at trust when they are sold with excessive rhetoric.

    Thank you for your service. I mean that sincerely.

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  19. Eric,
    Almost.

    You are assuming someone could hold through the 8 year cycle low. I think I'm safe in saying that no was able to do that.

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  20. seethruskin,
    When I enter a trade I am certain. If I wasn't I wouldn't take the trade in the first place. If I was wishy washy no one would ever take any trades and we wouldn't have made anything last year.

    I can't change the way I trade or write. If you want wishy washy you should find another analyst.

    If the model portfolio performance isn't enough to make you "trust" my strategies then try something else.

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  21. Gary,

    you can't go undefeated all the way. The sooner the lost comes the higher the chance next trade will be profitable.

    If this DC fails will you still support a new IC is in place ?

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  22. There's a big difference between being wishy washy and using excessive rhetoric.

    Carry on.

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  23. 1597 day on gdx around $48, ill give it a "last chance" around there.

    Also I must admit I've been rooting for another huge selloff in gold, 1480s / 377 day is my dream price. But the 233 still holding...

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  24. People who climb (or hike or swim) must be equipped to change their mind or, at a critical juncture, face a dangerous situation. To go from "I can scale this wall" to, "nope, going back down" is essential. I'm projecting since I don't rock climb, but I go on long hikes in the mountains, and I've climbed Mount Adams in Washington a few times. One time it was essential to go back down before reaching the summit. Nearly everyone I hear about, from Adams to Rainier to Hood to Everest who ends up stranded on a peak fails to change their plan given new information about their body, the weather, or the conditions.

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  25. In DeMark land, Gold (GC futures) has qualified a DAILY downside break level at 1616 (up close, down close, down open this morning) and it has concluded its 4 day upside reaction. The worst false break this year was the German DAX at the beginning of the summer that qualified a MONTHLY level and seemed to indicate more upside, so this is not the Holy Grail. We shall see...

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  26. Richard Russel said sell all your stocks, including PM stocks?!!! ... and i thought hip replacement surgery does not affect the brain!!?

    or maybe he is just getting old .. you know ... they all start being emotional and acting like little kids

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  27. Gary is Gary. I for one, am very thankful for that.

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  28. we need to rally now in Silver ... close above 30.5 or close for the month ... start the new year down, and then rally hard
    please please please!!!

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  29. See,
    I'm not going to change the way I write. Sorry.

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  30. What I'm seeing is:

    /DX is in a downtrend the last 6 days and printing a TD Sequential Setup #4 under today's bar (bullish for gold and miners).

    /GC is in an uptrend for the last 5 days and printing a TD Seq Setup #3 over today's bar (bullish for gold and miners)

    IWM has been in an uptrend the last 3 days and has printed a TD Seq Setup #3 over today's bar (bullish for equities/possibly miners)

    GDX on the daily is the outlier, but since the low this morning, has been in an uptrend on a 20 min chart and has printed a TD Seq Setup #1 over the last 20 min bar.

    Conclusion: Until things change, I'm staying long GDX and don't understand all this drama. What am I missing?

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  31. Gary,

    Besides gold and silver, most other commodities are behaving like they are ready for the inflation you were talking about. Look at grains and copper. Oil is also rush out of the low as you predicted. In my area (midwest), gas price jumped more than 10% overnight yesterday. I mean, there are plenty indicators that the inflation route is playing out. I am just puzzled by the way gold and silver are trading. What's your take on the decouple of PM with the rest of the commodities and the stock markets?

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  32. Stopped out of half my gold position at $1603, stop for the other half is at $1595...Santa Claus rallies typically occur after Christmas and a couple of days into the new year, if stop second stop holds I will look to exit the other half of my gold position and short the SPX next week.

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  33. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  34. Venicerain,

    What I've read is the European Central Banks held lots of gold and are selling it to raise money to help them work through euro crisis. They still like gold, but need to raise cash.

    I think its similar to the US hedge funds before Oct 4. They had to liquidate good profits in gold made before May 2011 to cover margin calls from losses made in equities during the waterfall drop and bear flag which started in August.

    My 2 cents.

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  35. "You are assuming someone could hold through the 8 year cycle low. I think I'm safe in saying that no was able to do that."

    I did. I am not claiming that was a smart thing to do (in fact, it seems pretty dumb), but I rode gold (spot prices) from 1032.70 on 2008-03-17 all the way down to 682.41 on 2008-10-24. Not a small position, either (number of ounces into four figures).

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