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Thursday, December 29, 2011

POTENTIAL PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A potential portfolio change has been posted to the website.

227 comments:

  1. I hear ya, At Ease, but I fortunate to sell into that big run up in the spring b/c my positions were getting tired. I then bought miners into the late May-early June pukeout which a few months later was up huge. It is only that trade I didn't cash out with big gains. It has been a spectacular year overall (thanks Gary), and part of the reason I can sit tight with current positions. I was also lucky enough to sell 2/3 my PHYS darn close to the top in Aug or Sept (can't remember exactly, but made the comments on the blog when I sold). Since then I've been getting tested on the miners and still remain in the red on that venture, but all within my risk parameters.

    I like Gary's recent call in that it leaves all doors open. Lower prices in metals/miners and he can add comfortably, but if they should rip from here, he's got a stake. Fine trading on G's part, IMO.

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  2. Hi everybody, someone of you is following the natural gas? What's happened today? Which is your view for short and medium term?

    Thanks a lot
    Andrea

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  3. 300dma looks to be holding well, gold pushing right off it at the open.

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  4. We are experiencing a very warm winter month in the North East. Supply continues to grow for NAT GAS.

    It's really all about supply & demand here.

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  5. This is the perfect setup to suck in the over-eager traders for one heck of a final flush once real trading begins again starting the week of 1-9-12! Should be very very interesting....

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  6. Swing low in gold, and ever so close with silver.

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  7. Veronica,

    No swing yet gold futures, $1.80 away though.

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  8. WW yeah, in at 1546, I probably trail as you say to close, but stated hate losing profits.

    You still short S+P. I am.

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  9. Andrea, I think Nat Gas could be next big trend. If get any kind of gov. support and equilibrium with greenies, things could be take off.
    Still early like gold was in 2001. Just my opinion with quite a bit of investigation. Still to early for big % investment, but eventual and increasing payday.

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  10. Forgot, selloff ? due to many things. Mostly increased supply, but america's(canada, us) becoming net exporter. Maybe fuel of transportation if T.Boone has his voice engaged. Lot of ? but eventual payday with patience.

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  11. Update,, to Yesterdays SLV Silver ETF Weekly Chart,Calling for a Possible Tradable Low this week?

    http://screencast.com/t/nratK9smjOVq

    As long as Tomorrow Close Flat or Green, we are Lookin Good!

    Gann360

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  12. Time for everyone to put their money where their mouth is.

    You have 3 seconds.

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  13. Well,

    GDX hit $49.22 today and I had posted that this would be a buy area

    http://www.screencast.com/t/jP3QfaqX

    So I was adding this A.M. (loading up really).

    Also posted this area

    http://www.screencast.com/t/csEP92mXjo

    and today we saw a reversal...

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  14. Reverse H&S pattern and we are breaking higher as I type, with a daily swing low too.

    Good odds the bottom is in. Not 100% of course, but it has the right feel. All the signs were there including me not wanting to buy.

    WW doing well. Already long.
    I will probably join within the next 2-3 days. A pullback is common before continuing higher.

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  15. i bought a 1520 put that wont do a bit of good. Im really not a happy camper

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  16. Monday's S&P500 close signaled a buy. Initial target is roughly 1320. After that I would reevaluate.

    If the market decides to roll over in that area it could suck PMs down with it hard, and then we could see silver at $19.

    So I would caution about getting overconfident. This may not be a bottom. This may just be a trade.

    Remember, the $HUI did *penetrate* the Megaphone bottom. Yes, it bounced but the penetration is very clear and not a good sign. FWIW

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  17. Interesting discussion yesterday between Gary, Doc, and Poly. Seems that the US dollar cycle count is in question. Interesting update this morning from another source:
    http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/ I wish that I believed that the UDdx followed cycle rules, but as it can be manipulated by a small # of central planners, it seems to defy cycle interpretation frequently.

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  18. No. I should be next week. A change was made to my PayPal. I have to look at my bank statement for the code. Just been busy. Why, am I missing something important??

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  19. "and then we could see silver at $19."

    not going to happen bud. The only physical you might be able to get at that price is some silver teapots on ebay.

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  20. Gary pointed out the $HUI megaphone top in his post on 10/26/11. Nothing has changed that I am aware of. It still qualifies as a potentially ugly Megaphone Top (aka Broadening Top). And the lower trend line was just penetrated.

    I'm not predicting PMs will cave immediately, nor am I predicting PMs will cave later. I'm just saying be very aware and don't get overconfident.

    Here's a picture...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77221516540&a=252241785

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  21. lol @ silver teapot.
    Silver at 19 is a dream... not gonna happen.

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  22. gold has begun wave 4 out of 5 for C of 2. I expect it to go maybe to 1645 or so. The ratio of wave 3 to 1 was 1.77, and therefore wave 5 will likely extend. It should either equal 3+1 or .62 x (3+1). Rounding off, my original goal of high 1300s to low 1400s still is valid. Time wise, I would think wave 4 would take at least a few weeks, and wave 5 at leastanother few weeks. Therefore February seems most likely as the low.

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  23. Whoa

    There's going to be some gap to be filled on these miners sometime in the future.

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  24. Gaps and black candles all over the place on the miners this AM. I have a core position but I refuse to add on days like today. The HUI could run up 30% from here and that gap will be hanging over it. Obviously nothing works 100% of the time but this fits in with Gary's notion of a 123 reversal.

    Up until the last 8 months or so, gaps and black candles were essentially unheard of on the HUi. Now the chart is littered with them!

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  25. $GLD is a monster today! The calls are explodin

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  26. NEM starting to struggle...not a good sign

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  27. Felipe,

    Long gold futures off the 300dma.
    Mentioned it in the pevious blog post.

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  28. some funny patterns i heard recently

    FISH HEAD
    SUPER HIGHWAY
    BULLDOZER
    TWIN TABLE

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  29. Selling 1/2 of my Position Long GLD Here around $153.30 ish (give or take 5 Cents ) Letting other half Ride with a in the Money Stop !

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  30. Eamonn,

    Starting to pick up RGLD here.

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  31. Guy,

    The King of the miners sector IMO.

    Royal Gold

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  32. WW, thank you for notifying me.
    Do you think we have seen the bottom in gold?

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  33. Guy,

    Royal Gold is a royalty earner.

    I like SLW also. Silver Wheaton

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  34. Eamonn,

    You know I always look to buy exact bottoms, and that I have been expecting this D-wave to bottom on the 300dma for a long time now...always said new big advances are born on the 275dma and 300dma, but I treat every bottom the same, always trailing the move and looking to take off the trade if I see weakness.

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  35. Eamonn,

    Yesterday's reversal closed on the 300dma, and last nights session opened on the 300dma and launched off it, if this is a new advance to new highs, it too was born on the 300dma. I have been preparing everyone for this for a long time now.

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  36. WW,

    you're all in at the moment?

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  37. I want to think gold has bottomed here, but I'm not totally convinced yet. Like Gary, I'd be much more comfortable buying if stocks were closer to a daily cycle bottom.

    Something to think about: there's a Fed meeting on Jan 24-25. Let's assume for a moment we get a panic low on the Friday beforehand as the rumor mill starts churning over the weekend and the market starts to sniff out money printing. Assuming 12/15 does turn out to be a DCL in gold, that Friday would be Day 24 or so. That'd also be Day 38 for the stock market. Both right in the timing band for a low.

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  38. Guy,

    Like I said weeks ago, when gold bounces off the 300dma, I would load the boat, I did just that. But like I mentioned to Eamonn, I trail the move with sufficient cushion not to be whipsawed out of my position, always looking to bail if need be.

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  39. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  40. WW, looks like you have a nice trade going into 2012. Congrats

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  41. WW,

    Have you started building your SLW position, too?

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  42. WIlliam Wallace, I like your call. We have to be ready, and your MA approach has been a great indicator. I sense a building wall of worry (I have been buying today and second guessing every move), perhaps just the kind of worry gold likes.

    Maybe it'll turn back down. I like the core I'm building, so I am ready to take some necessary wiggle volatility right now. *cring*

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  43. RJ,

    Said I like it, not buy it :)
    Take a look at a YTD daily of RGLD and SLW and you'll see why. RGLD is the only miner I buy.

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  44. lol. Read my own post and have to laugh. Sure, I'm building a 'core'; 'all in' is closer to the truth. It's my weakness for battered down juniors. : )

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  45. Totally unrelated to SMT gold trade.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/45817416
    People think politicians run the country.

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  46. What say ye? 1/1/12 is going to be the yearly low for gold?

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  47. Dollar down, market down, one of them is going to be wrong

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  48. That may change by the end of the day.

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  49. The ever obvious gap fill on GDX. Probably bullish, GDX is now free to move about the cabin to the upside and may not return to these lows on a retest.

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  50. WW,

    Nice call in getting in yesterday! Yes you had been warning folks about the critical gold MAs...I am still in the uup position but am salivating at what could have been a nice short term DGP gain today! Please keep posting.

    Cheers!

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  51. Gap filled on the hui, but there is still a black candle today, which 99% of the time portends a lower closing price in the days ahead. Would rather just see it turn red, so that we dont have the black candle to worry about.

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  52. SLV Having a Hard Time at $27.50 ish Level,
    Which was the Low Pivot after the April/May high of $48.00 ish

    What Happens here will be Key !
    Regaining $27.50 ish would be Bullish.

    Just my 2 Pesos !

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  53. WW, almost breaking support here. Are you looking to stay long or go short?

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  54. The miners and silver are coming off like a prom dress at 2:00 AM.

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  55. the 10 year still on its mission today

    to explore strange new derivatives

    to seek out risk assets and deliver intergalactic beatdowns upon them

    to boldly go where no insanely overpriced junk pieces of paper have gone before!

    *theremin music*

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  56. WW,

    so you are calling new DC, new IC has started ??

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  57. St. D.

    LOL....that was awesome!

    Part of me really wants to nibble on some TBT...but it sure seems like this is just going to keep on keeping on.

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  58. Shalom Bernanke --

    Someone (yanivicous) is using your avatar on private blog, is this you?

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  59. i would love to short bonds but as long as the fed is here you'll just be fighting them the entire time. at best they drip down slowly.

    but once an obvious ceiling appears to have been made (and it might have already happened) you'd make a lot more money just buying assets/gold/stocks/anything. if anything just for the favorable mathematics behind buying vs. selling.

    anyway happy new year everyone.

    (i'm leaning towards this not being the bottom in gold but really have no idea. wishful thinking. my target still 1475ish)

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  60. at ease,

    Not sure what support your looking at...I have support at the 275dma, $1560 area.

    Ivan,

    This low may or may not mark a new cycle, its too early to say.

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  61. WW, that is the support I am looking at, looks like it might not hold today.

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  62. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  63. Short term things still look positive IMO. $SPX is still a buy. It broke through 3 layers of significant overhead resistance this week (the 200ma, a large triangle, and the neckline of an inverted H&S). It is most likely back testing those areas now.

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  64. DP,

    No, I'm not yanivicious on the subscriber side, in fact rarely go there since Gary prefers we keep most discussions here unless we have a question.

    Maybe I should sue for using my actual photo? :)

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  65. Shalom Bernanke --

    Can't advice about suing, but open blog looks more fun, IMHO :)

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  66. I just visited the other side, and see lots of discussion there. Now we have to comment two places to remind SMTer's to own some miners for the long haul!

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  67. I have a younger Bernanke pic too, where he looks kinda like a hippie and still has some hair on his head. LOL

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  68. Miners look to me correlated to SP500.

    Another point, does anyone try to follow intraday cycles? It looks like there is 50 min or so cycle intraday.

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  69. Should I place the warning on the premium site that SB is gonna sue for unauthorized usage of his avatar? :)

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  70. Got stopped out gold futures as usual stop to close, but made good and don't like being in over weekend in futures.

    SB do you know anything of Ron Paul being anti-Israel? Or more propaganda. Just never known him to say anything other than quit wasting money overseas.

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  71. Folks,

    Any comments/thoughts on why PSLV (Sprott Silver shares) have such a high premium right now (~25%)?


    Being the conspiracy minded, I am wondering if it is MF Global after effect related....

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  72. Wow - pretty interesting about the S&P closing only 0.04 less than it did at the end of last year! Who says the computers are not in control.
    One of the better stocks I see on the DeMark board - don't laugh - it's Bank of America (BAC). Two days ago it recorded a perfected DAILY Sequential 13 BUY signal - it just missed confirming it with a BULLISH price flip today (close above the close 4 price bars earlier) - comparisons the next 2 days will be easier. This is good for 10 more trading days. WEEKLY, it recorded a Sequential BUY the last week of November. This had a BULLISH price flip last week! Finally, there is a perfected MONTHLY BUY Setup that recorded for this month, good for 1-4 Months, January - April. So, looking good for BAC. GS, MS and BKX also recorded these 9 MONTHLY BUY Setups, so they are not perfected. Look for BAC to outperform them both!
    In terms of Gold and Silver, GC futures, SI futures, GLD, GDX, GDXJ, and SLV are all showing a WEEKLY BUY Setup developing, they are all on bar 6 of 9, which will still require lower prices over the next few weeks to perfect.
    SSRI is interesting - should perfect a WEEKLY BUY Setup next week, but is also on Bar 11 of 13 of a Sequential Setup. On MONTHLY, on Bar 7 of 9 of a BUY Setup, but will require a low below this week's 12.39 to perfect.
    Anyway, Happy new year everyone! Let's hope Gary's Armageddon scenario doesn't play out :)

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  73. Bek-

    PSLV has had a ridiculously high premium for the last year. Why anyone buts that closed end trust with a 26% premium to NAV is a mystery to me. I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

    Sprott should have done a massive secondary or two by now to knock down the premium and acquire more physical silver that would easily have been at a price that was very accretive to its NAV. Very poor management of that trust, IMO.

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  74. Greenspansconscience:

    Can you say more about your expectations based on a black candle on the $HUI? That last two major bottoms played out the exact same way as today -- there's a gap up indecisive black candle the day after the bottom gets put in, followed immediately by a rocket rally from oversold to overbought. That's not to say it'll play out again this time, but I'm more trying to understand what exactly to read into a black candle.

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  75. A black candle is a better predictor of a decline if it occurs after a significant rally. It can be the sign of buying exhaustion. I wouldn't read anything into it at the bottom of a hard correction.

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  76. Some input desired from you cycles guys.

    TSI guy's post here is interesting:

    www.thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/12/gold-look-out-below-d-wave-continues.html

    He looks at the retracements of all the C waves so far in gold (when gold crashes down in a D wave) and concludes we are headed to 1400 at a minimum.

    His statement based on history is correct.

    Conversely, I have argue using an intermediate low approach that except for 2008 gold has only once dropped below a previous intermediate low and has *never* dropped below the last two intermediate lows.

    My statement is ALSO correct based on history.

    Here is the problem. My statement is arguing that we have seen the low or are very close to it. TSI guy's angle would mean we have substantial downside left.

    Like I said they are both true. The discrepency is caused by the singularly massive size of this last C wave - undoubtedly due to the extreme 2008/09 money printing by fed.

    This recent C wave is 6 intermediate cycles long. The next longest is 4 (heading into 2008).

    Thus, after we ultimately have a resolution in the future we will find out that EITHER TSI guys is correct *or* I am correct. Not both. Yet we are hanging in a point of time where both are true. Schroedinger's cat :-)

    I have attempted to bolster my view of a low here with a few other observations including a momo indicator suggesting an imminent rally; the strength of the July intermediate launch (10 days straight up); how I don't think 2008 repeats cause people are scared of that exact thing.

    You could also add in the belief that the fed's euro currency swaps are actually QE3; that the CRB has likely bottomed; and maybe a few other thoughts.

    So to wrap up I ask the cycles people whether you think:
    a) TSI guys "C level retracements" view is correct (1400 or lower seems like a big stretch to me)
    b) or whether my "previous intermediate lows almost never get broken - especially two of them" view is more valid.

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  77. There is another way to look at my question:

    A) "C waves always retrace at least 50% and usually much more"

    B) "Intermediate lows almost never break; Definitely not lower that the past 2 intermediate lows"

    EITHER A or B is not a true statement and only APPEARS to be true simply due to COINCIDENCE or lack of data points. In other words a statistical fluke that simply LOOKS legitimate but isn't. (Like seeing a pattern on roulette wheel where there is none.)

    What are educated opinions as to which may be the fluke?

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  78. Note that there has been a progession in the number of intermediate lows per C cycle.

    Early in the bull it was 1 or 2 for the entire C.

    the 2006 rally had 3 int cycles (only retracing about 50%)

    2008 had 4 cycles (with a crash retracement obviously after)

    Now we have 6 cycles.

    1&2 early
    3 in 2006
    4 in 2008
    6 in 2011

    clearly a pattern

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  79. TZ,
    Trying to compare the current D-wave to prior ones is probably not going to give you any tradeable strategies.

    Every time in history is unique.

    Sure some things repeat but never in exactly the same way. The best we can do is make our decisions in real time and adapt if the market doesn't agree.

    The COT, Sentiment and breadth in the PM sector suggest that we are close to a major bottom. Does that mean that we can't still see lower lows, maybe even during the next intermediate cycle. No of course not.

    If the dollar continues to rally then gold is probably going to continue lower.

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  80. I agree with gary to some extent re: black candles and that's probably the classic TA explanation.

    However, all else equal i would rather see a red candle than a black one. Reason being is if the stock rallies for a few days after the black candle you start to wonder if this is one of those instances where a black candle doesnt get negated by a lower closing price. Similar to the uncertainty that a gap up creates.

    Up until this last year, the daily HUI was nearly devoid of black candles and gaps of any kind for the enire 11 year bull run. Now the HUI daily chart is riddled with them. Note that every one of them has eventually been negated with a lower close. So if we run higher next week, i would be very leary and way more inclined to take quick profits.

    The weekly HUI chart has not had a single black candle in the entire bull run IIRC. Thats pretty amazing.

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  81. And what is the strategy with our current position?

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  82. I think your gap fill 123 reversal scenario may very well play out. Your in and out trading strategy has been spot on since last spring.

    I also noticed a black candle on the $CCI chart at the beginning of this current bounce. Not the way i like to start rallies ( again, similar to rally that starts with a gap up).

    we can close lower than today early next week, my black candle paranoia will be alleviated and maybe we just keep running.Being the eternal pessimist, though, i have a feeling we get one last nasty shakeout in january before the dollar/ bond foundation begins to severely crack. Then again i didnt think we would see the start of the dollar implode until benny and the inkjets confirmed a QE3. Sentiment has me thinking otherwise now. Who the hell knows. The dollar and bond market are literally confidence games, and those can go on so long as the people still have faith in them.

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  83. Danno,
    I know you enjoy charting so I recomend you check this out. Daily Dow update.

    http://rambus1.com/

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  84. Wav,
    Thanks man. I will definitely check it out. Just bought 3 more books on charting, but I need to get up to speed on cycles. From now on I plan to avoid making predictions here. Like Gary said, we have to adapt in real time to Mr. Market so predictions can often be of limited value anyway. I guess my contribution will be focusing on research and posting patterns I see and their potential price targets.

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  85. Wav,
    Rambus is ill advised to suggest that may be a 'bearish rising wedge'. It's just s rising wedge. Price must close outside one of the trend lines before anyone can tentatively call the pattern bearish or bullish. Even if the breakout is to the downside, bearish rising wedges perform poorly and we could just end up seeing a complex right shoulder similar to the complex left shoulder.

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  86. Huge (never been so large) net long position on the Euro: http://goo.gl/UYeoE
    Seems like a reversal is due on the dollar, frequently seen at year end

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  87. Eamonn, I'm not quite sure I follow what you mean by dollar 'reversal'.

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  88. danno

    predictions are fine. Gary has predictions that are very extreem.
    They are based, for instance, if the dollar is failing now then it is going to be a extreem left translated cycle and will be declineing for a long time. thus creating a currency crises of extra ordenary perportions. So he has a line drawn in the sand and if that fails its game on.
    But what happens in real time is what he trades. So dont get to discouraged
    prediction with a line in the sand will give you something to react on.

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  89. Danno,
    You're ight about the label of the wedge wedge, he was jumping the gun a bit. But, he says "usually after 4 or 5 days, when you trade at a resistance rail and fail to get through, the stock will usually give up and start to decline". He also mentioned the SPX Inverse H&S breakout was on light volume. A breakout on heavy volume is key.
    Anyway, I've followed the guy for a while and he's relly good. His best call was short oil based on the H&S pattern (WTIC was about 98)with a target of 35ish and short SLV at 45. His older charts are here if your interested.

    http://arch11.goldtent.org/?p=121934

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  90. Flea,
    Okay. I'll make a prediction. The climax to the EU crisis is not behind us. It is looming before us and may not happen for several months.

    Wav,
    He shorted OIL? Now I know he's nuts! j/k. I'll check his site out more. Thanks.

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  91. Sorry, forgot to mention the year he went short oil was 2008. Not so nuts huh. H&S top price target was 35ish and I'm pretty sure the target was hit to the exact dollar.

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  92. One would have to squint pretty hard to see a H&S pattern on the oil chart in 2008.

    Usually what happens is one starts shorting a parabolic move too early. They get whipsawed out of their position multiple times. Then when they do catch the top they can't hold on to it because they are nervous from the whipsaws.

    They jump in and out on the way down sometimes making money sometimes losing money in the violate bear market rallies.

    Then once the bottom is in a clear for everyone to see they claim victory and how they spotted the crash coming.

    The truth is they may or may not have actually profited from their call and even if they did they almost certainly didn't catch the entire move like they would have everyone believe.

    The simple fact is that markets go up differently than they go down. It's very tough to make money on the short side even if you do get the call right.

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  94. Wav,
    You did call the recent Head & Shoulders in Silver. That was an excellent call. What do you think about $BPGDN (Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index)..? The MACD may be about to cross over and Stochastic is oversold. Don't you think it might pop to 30 or 35?

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  96. Wav,
    INDU has closed above its multi-month triangle. That would cause me not to short the market. And if INDU closes above the neckline... I would not want to be in its way. Shorting here is a high risk trade. Too rich for my blood.

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  97. Just want to thank you Gary for your service this year. My simple rate of return on all accounts was 89%. I was hoping to close a bit higher, but took some hits on accounts in Dec trades. Accounts are ready to fly next trades in January. I am very happy with my first year of cycle trading. :) Thank you.

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  98. At ease

    All there is now is to pay the tax man. ;-(

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  99. If monday is red in EXK, I am adding some. I'll add on any further weakness in the week as well. We are at 10 on the gold miners bullish percent index. Close enough to a bottom for me.

    Couple that with oversold bond yields and I'm a buyer on weakness. A 2008 style crash is the only thing that would ruin my plan. I believe the bullish percent index actually hit 0 in 2008, lol. HUI was at 150--wow.

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  100. SF Gianst, see my reply comments in members section.

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  101. After 3 years of selling my manual for over $200, I'm finally offering it to everybody for virtually free.

    Enjoy. And Happy New Year!

    Beanie

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  102. on the same page as your book beanie, is a book offered called "Buy my bood so i can get rich" by Brian Carr.

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  103. Danno,
    I haven't been following that index lately b/c the better buy signal has clearly been the lower support rail. The last buy was a tough one b/c it wasnt at a daily cycle low for gold but Gary's scenario was a logical one. I've seen $BGPDM:$HUI (or the other way around) on Stockcharts and watching the 10 RSI had given pretty nice buy and sells, but I'll have to get back later to you on that one.

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  104. You are right about the average investor. But a seasoned professional that sticks to his plan and isn't over leveraged can pull it off.

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  105. Beanie

    There must be a reason it is virtually free.

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  106. At ease

    I looked and didn't see anything.

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  107. SF Giants Fan, check the post under the Dec 29th report. I was on that page when I posted my reply to you. Sorry, I didn't realize, I wasn't on the latest one. :)

    Happy New Year!

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  108. At ease

    Congrats. I'm jealous. Most of my my gains are taxable. Just waiting for the k-1 from proshares ;-(

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  109. HAPPY NEW YEAR GARY AND SMTS!!!

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  110. Before buying a leveraged ETF, check the  
    AGQ Premium/discount to NAV.  AGQ is currently at a discount for example.   I would avoid buying when there is a large premium.  

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  111. Happy New Year everybody. I am tweeting some signals. If interested you can follow me.

    http://arum-geld-gold.blogspot.com/2012/01/happy-new-year.html

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  112. Russell,

    Central bank manipulation is one of the reasons I'm sure the DX will fall despite the European's dilemma. A currency war is underway, and I have little doubt the U.S. will "win" the competitive devaluation struggle.

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  113. thedocument,
    Don't hold your breath. It could be an extended battle. I wouldn't trust any fall in the dollar here. It may fall (and I hope it does short term) but after a fall it could still ricochet to new highs if the EU crisis leapfrogs to another level of fear.

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  114. Doc,

    I think that you are right and that nobody is noticing that the Dollar is going to lose its reserve currency specificity very soon....It is a war indeed and the Chinese/Japanese as well as the Europeans are leading it...
    Unfortunately for the US, the day it loses its reserve currency deal, it is going to be very hard to explain such high levels of debt...

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  115. SF Giants Fan:

    Where in the world do you find the premium/discount on an ETF? Closed end funds.... yes. ETFs? The holdings of ETFs vary with how many investors there are in them. How can an ETF trade at a premium or discount to its NAV? And where would I find it?

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  116. sophia,
    I agree long term the dollar is dead. However, shorter term the dollar is still deadly. Until the EU crisis is completely resolved, don't hope for too much from PMs. This is why people need to avoid speculation with options. Very few will get the timing right.

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  117. Am I reading the prospectuses correctly that DGP does not generate a K-1 whereas UGL does?

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  118. Danno,

    The problem with macro analysis of currencies is that traders too often overlook the flip side to an event. Greece could decide to break away from the EU and the euro might suddenly rally because folks may interpret an independent Greece as positive for Germany and/or France. Or perhaps the ECB will ultimately print a ton of cash and the euro might rise because of an anticipated boost to the European economy. These things are not so clear-cut, which is why I prefer to stick to my cycles.

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  119. I agree. All I have to do is spot an intermediate bottom to make money.

    Trying to guess at how the market will view one or another event isn't going to make anyone any money. Besides once an intermediate cycle is ready to turn the news will appear that drives the turn.

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  120. Unknown

    Click on the link in my comment this morning. It will show That AGQ is trading at a $1.54 discount to NAV. When there are big moves the eft will get out of balance (premium /discount). UGL is trading at a $3.10 premium. Just something to keep an eye on.

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  121. anybody ever think its not a currency war. Maybe its a world stratagy?
    and no i dont have a bunch of facts to back it up, sometimes i just have to think that they cant possibly be this stupid.

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  122. Hi all,
    Does anybody know of a reliable physical gold IRA? Goldline? USAgold?

    thanks,

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  123. anybody follow the gold and oil guy? just curious about the serves.
    gary you are the best though!

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  124. Can someone explain to me why gold will go down when everyone, no matter whether they're using cycles or any other tech tool, is waiting for 1400-1450's before feeling confident it has fallen enough to enter.. And when looking at volume, why would one need volume to confirm the real bottom? We got some big volume on the last bottom which Gary thought might be the B-wave bottom. Don't see why the volume at the 1567 bottom can't still be legit to be counted (we're only ~$50 lower with this bottom, don't understand why large traders would care about such as small number if they're targeting 7-20k on the upside), which would leave volume traders on the platform when the bull resumes it course.

    I just get the feeling that going to 1450, a number most people think we're heading towards, would be waaaay to obvious, while at the moment nobody seems to think it has bottomed.

    If I where a large trader wanting to fool everyone I wouldn't take gold to the number everyone was waiting for, put rather but a bottom where nobody expects it.

    Comments?

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  125. As for the 1-2-3 reversal I've been expecting it to happen since the last trade and that it's about to get confirmed soon.

    Basically I just think I've got a different count than most of you though I wouldn't mind if I'm wrong.

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  126. Dollar going down fast...wonder if 80 will hold?

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  127. I think my cycle count is wrong on the dollar. I'll elaborate in tomorrows report.

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  128. ND,
    No one is controlling gold. It will bottom when enough value investors step in and stop the decline. That usually happens in the normal timing band for an intermediate cycle bottom.

    One has to also consider the effect of the stock market moving down into it's intermediate bottom as that will generate tremendous selling pressure on all assets. It's very unlikely gold will be able to resist that no matter how much gold bugs would like to believe otherwise.

    An intermediate bottom in stocks will also generate tremendous upwards pressure on the dollar, which will also act to drive gold lower.

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  129. Gary,

    If the dollar cycle count is not accurate, does that necessarily mean that the other cycles (gold, stocks, oil) could be off as well?

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  130. JEFFtheFLEA,

    I wouldnt bother with the gold and oil guy. I think you can actually review his past trades for free somewhere on the site and needless to say, they are not impressive and are very short term oriented. I subscribed once and the only value I got was the morning updates as he would go through charts and identifying any interesting patterns but unless you day trade, its rather useless information.

    I find his short, free pieces are more interesting than anything he provides on the subscriber portion of this site.

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  131. Gary,

    Sure, no one is controlling gold. That's just the way I play with it in my head, "what would make most people loose money/not make money" (even Gary and the SMTers)..

    In this case I think it could be what I wrote in earlier post.

    Also, we do not yet know how far gold will reach these next few days.

    If the dollar hasn't actually put in its daily cycle bottom that would mean it's heading below the 21st bottom and the interesting thing will be to see where gold is at that point.

    I also think that as long as the stock market trades above 1140 the bear is dead (though there are some gaps down there, but they might not get filled until later.

    So if the dollar trades below dec 21st low I'm not sure that would mean a failed daily cycle on the dollar but rather the actual daily cycle bottom and that it's next cycle fails and then we'll have our true confirmation.

    Just my thoughts

    as for the selling pressure when stocks begin their intermediate decline, depending on where gold trades when it starts, sure gold could take a serious hit (no doubt), and again scare weak bulls but still not penetrate the low from last week.

    still I'm always open if something pops up and my scenario looks doubtful and we will get more daily cycles to enter on.

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  132. phil,
    No the stock market count is accurate and I'm about 90% sure the gold count is accurate.

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  133. if the market is going down and the dollar is going up, then I dont see a reason for oil to be trading above 100 once again. sure it all could reverse fast, even as I type, but I seems 100 could become the floor from now on...it sure is gonna be some interesting first weeks of this new year.

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  134. EURUSD at resistance. Watching closely for a breakout. Don't want to be holding any EUO or UUP if it breaks out.

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  135. WW Just read a book by Bill Sardi and effect of iron in body and possible correlation to some heart problems. Name of book down sizing your body. Name due to insulin problems and weight but interesting take on many things.

    If interested very willing to give you my copy. Drop me email clarabelle44@comcast.net , in appreciation to your giving on this site. Riley

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  136. Dollar count must be 20 or so instead of 5 and forming an ERT. If so, this week may be a massive head fake.

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  137. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  138. Riley,

    Thanks my friend, I will drop you an email this week.

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  139. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  140. Capital3x closes the year with record performance. The december trade results are displayed here. 87% success ratio on its trade calls with profits of 1900 pips in december alone.

    Dec Performance

    From the time C3X began, it has accumalated over 10,000 pips in a space of mere 5 months while the S&P500 ENDED the year where it begain (0% return for buy and hold).

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  141. Taking off 1/3 of my gold futures long from the 300dma here at $1590.

    Happy New Year my friends, hope we all have a very prosperous one together.

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  142. happy new year to all.

    WW,

    what's your target for the rest. 200 dma?

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  143. Happy New Year to All!

    WW, why taking 1/3 off WW, are you not trusting this move to have legs?

    I was thinking of adding more but I am now hesitating after your comments...

    Thanks

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  144. gary
    jump out of the dollar in the morning? i got my dad in uup.

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  145. i see your answer on the prem blog

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  146. My gold futures system has executed an add on buy signal last night, astonishingly without setting a stop yet.

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  147. Thanks for sharing Veronica. Good to know.

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  148. Thanks Veronica! and Happy New Year

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  149. I wonder if Gary was successful at picking his bottom?

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  150. Question is can dollar close the gap today to 80.60 ??

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  151. Danno, that's a very personal question to ask

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  152. A video concerning Ron Paul's stance on Israel (by a Jewish professor).

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Q37qyfHZ1c&feature=youtu.be

    I'm not sure what to think about Ron Paul now. Maybe he is okay after all.

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  153. Ollie,

    Just locking in some profits, I went heavy on the 300dma.

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  154. W2,

    did you have a good xmas? ours was really nice, quite mellow...kids ( 8,8, and 6) had a blast.
    wishing you and your family a wonderful 2012!
    keep healthly!

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  155. Im considering the dollar being on day 23 and moving into a DCL now, when the dollar bottoms gold and stocks are going to move into their DCL's and I dont want to sit to heavily in gold for too long just yet.

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  156. Sophia,

    Great Christmas with my little ones. Wishing you and yours a wonderful new year :)

    ReplyDelete
  157. Selling my XLE that I didn't manage to sell before

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  158. cool, thanks WW, starting pay more attention to MAs in my trading!

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  159. Gary,
    Did you ever see Barbra Walters interview the teenage girl who made millions by allowing people to access her site for free? She got so much traffic that advertisers began contacting her and offering thousands of dollars to post banner ads. Her site was called 'WhateverLife' and she gave away free MySpace and Facebook background template of her own design. Just seems like you are shooting yourself in the foot by charging peanuts for subscriptions when your site could be one of the prime daily destinations for myriad traders.

    www.whateverlife.com/
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gagpo5X2jaw

    ReplyDelete
  160. Some stats from 2011:

    TLT (20+ year treasury bond) +28.8%

    Gold ........................+10.1%

    Silver ......................-9.9%

    GDX .........................-16.3%

    The dollar/UST bubble might be stretching. Big bubbles......no troubles.

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  161. WW

    I see you sold this morning..what MA resistance do you see for this bounce.

    Thanks and thank for all of you contributions to this site!

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  162. WW

    Fat fingers this morning: Thanks and thanks for all of your contributions to this site!

    wmp

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  163. wmp,

    Im looking at the 220dma, $1609

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  164. WW,

    Thanks man, happy new year and good health!

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  165. WW,

    Do you see one more daily cycle down for gold as well, bottoming in Feb or March? If so what might your target be?

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  166. I really don't know what to think about silver...

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  167. Greg,

    It has always been my expectation that gold would launch a new advance to all time highs off the 300dma, which would mean the bottom is in, that would suggest that gold just put in a very short last DC... it's really too early for me to say with full conviction whether or not we will see another failed DC, I have to see how gold behaves when the SPX moves into a DCL and the dollar is rallying. If we do see another DC down I will be looking at the 75 week MA around $1495.

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  168. WW, I love your moving averages stuff

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  169. I am out of 50% of my gold futures long from the 300dma here at the 220dma.

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  170. I've changed my alias from Éamonn to smartbullion. More international

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  171. Moving the stop for the other half of my gold position up to the 275dma ($1580) now.

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  172. Don't miss this analysis of the $ cycles since 1978, from supercycle to daily. Also the implications for stocks.

    http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/index.php/2011/12/great-expectations/

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  173. Copper is starting to move...Maybe the DCL is in??

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  174. WW,
    I don't base my trades on MA. Gold already penetrated the 300 last week.

    There is more to this than just MA. One has to account for the stock market and how it is intertwined with the currency markets.

    Unless you think the stock market isn't going to move down into a daily or intermediate cycle low and that that won't drive the dollar higher, or that gold will somehow all of a sudden disconnect from the dollar and also shrug off the selling pressure generated by the next intermediate cycle low in the stock market then gold will have another leg down and maybe two legs down that will completely ignore the 300 DMA or whatever MA happens to fit at the time.

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  175. WW, what if the bottom is in and gold just simply won't pull back meaningfully, would you have a problem buying back higher?

    Just mentally preparing for an alternative in case gold DCL is already in...

    Thanks

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  176. Gary,

    I trade in real time and dont assume anything. Took my gold long at the 300dma at $1546, took off half today at the 220dma at $1608.
    My entries and exits are almost always on point. I obviously shown that there is more ways than one to make money. What do you have it out for me again today? :)

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  177. Ollie,

    Im still 50% gold long, so if there is no "meaningful" pullback it doesn't concern me.

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  178. You are misinterpreting. You are a day trader. I try to catch intermediate swings. Two completely different approaches.

    All I'm saying is that I think gold has another leg down when stocks move down into the next daily and intermediate cycle low. When that happens it's probably going to ignore the 300 DMA.

    And yes there is more than one way to make money in the market. I'm not very good at the day trading thing so I just stick with what works for me.

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  179. Gary,

    BTW, "penetrations" of SMA's dont matter, I focus on the close.

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  180. Too much WW rear kissing around here. The guy does make bad calls from time to time just like most mortals. Remember WW shorted $SPX last Tuesday immediately after after I posted that $SPX triggered a buy signal at Monday's close. Still waiting for someone to say nice call.

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  181. Gary,

    Im not misinterpreting, I agree with you...but you know that I am a day trader also. I never said your a day trader, but you start picking on me anyway ya big bully :)

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  182. Penetrations do matter IMO. You've taken many trades on a tag of a moving average. If it keeps going you get whipsawed out of your position.

    If a moving average gets penetrated it means there wasn't enough buyers at that level to halt the decline. They may come in later and bring it back but that doesn't change the fact that it couldn't stop the decline and during the next wave of selling its likely the MA will suffer a sustainable breach.

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  183. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  184. Danno,

    Your problem is your trying too hard to get your a$$ kissed with all your "predictions". I don't try to predict anything. My SPX short is a longer term call, we still don't have a IC right tranlation confirmation and the market is on day 25 of a DC and will soon move into a DCL.

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  185. Gary,

    would you mind saying something on the premium site about the daily count in USD as I have kept the short DX and making a bit of money, so I was wondering if I should close tonight or wait for the Employment on Friday...
    Thanks in advance,
    Sophia

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  186. if you want some a$$ kissing, here it is.
    nice call, danno ;)

    ReplyDelete

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