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Saturday, December 10, 2011

WEEKEND REPORT

I think this weekend's report is probably one of the most important reports I've written for gold traders and investors as to what I think is in store the next couple of months.

I'm going to make the report available over the weekend for $1. Actually you will have access to the entire site for the next two days for the price of one George Washington. You can either keep your subscription and it will convert to a monthly on Tuesday morning or cancel it Monday night and you won't be charged another dime. Either way you will get access to a report that I think is important for every gold investor to read.

If you decide to cancel do so by following the directions on the home page of the website.
Click on the link above to go to the premium website and then click the subscribe link on the upper right side to link to the subscription page. 

THE OFFER HAS NOW EXPIRED

440 comments:

  1. One Dollar. Just like the bet on Trading Places.
    Nice.

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  2. WOOAAA

    http://www.youtube.com/v/EEu42L0ufBY%26rel%3d0%26hl%3den_US%26feature%3dplayer_embedded%26version%3d3

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  3. I have maybe two silly question, i would like to ask:

    1-) Is CEF a good alternative for someone who want to protect his money in gold without having direct physical ? Has CEF the same problems as GLD (in terms os insuficient physical in the vaults as many sites states about GLD/JPM) ?
    2-) When someone trade XAG/USD, what does we really trade ? What is objectivily XAG/USD ?

    Thks everyone who can answer me these silly doubts.

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  4. Neo,

    Look into Sprott's PHYS & PSLV offerings. They're supposed to have physical representing your shares, I believe.

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  5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_exchange-traded_product

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  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  7. So all you have done is figured out that Gold is actually NOT going to go back up towards $1,900 and the correction is going to be stronger as the triangle breaks to the downside?

    A dollar is not a lot of money, but honestly I wrote here a few weeks ago that common sense states Gold needs a major correction to shake out all the bulls. Basically all you need to know is that when some asset, whatever it is, is up 11 years in the row - you do not want to chase it.

    Gold could go as low as $1,200 from here just like in the mid 70s when it correct almost 50% shaking out all the bulls who hang onto their bullish 200 day moving average outlook non sense. Than, when majority get scared, Gold will go and touch the Dow Jones nominally just like in 1980!

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  8. Congratulations you have quoted Jim Rogers perfectly. Maybe try thinking for yourself next time.

    Everyone has expectations for what may or may not happen. But we all have to trade in real time.

    B-wave's don't move below D-wave bottoms. In real time this looks like gold is probably in a B-wave decline, which means it should hold above $1535.

    However if Bernanke succeeds in breaking the dollar rally then we could see gold reverse and the A-wave continue.

    If the dollar were to collapse we could even see the C-wave re-ignite.

    This is what is called real time analysis, instead of using someone else's ideas and claiming them as your own.

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  9. BTW if you bothered to look at the model portfolio you would notice that it is 100% cash right now. We aren't chasing anything. You might also notice that the model portfolio is up 23% in 5 months.

    This was accomplished during a very tough trading environment with no leverage and never investing more than 75% of capital.

    If you want to troll I suggest you do it somewhere else, because the SMT has been one of, if not the best, performing newsletter in the world for the last couple of years and you just look silly trying to knock it.

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  10. I do not know anything about D waves and B waves and G waves or your newsletter. I do follow the blog however and I like it.

    I congratulate you on your returns. On the other hand I will not brag about my returns or losses over the last 5 months or 5 years, because it is of the topic and not really important to anyone but me and the investors I look after.

    Having said all that, I am just discussing Gold, its rally for 11 straight years, 14 straight quarters and the price trend of 750 days above the 200 day MA. My point is, no one should need any "help" figuring out that they are chasing an asset class with that type of basic statistics.

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  11. p.s. I'm going to try and think more for myself from now on. (end sarcasm)

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  13. Another sucker of a summit.

    C3X writes in the performance page that it was nothing short of german led coup.

    Performance sheet

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  14. gary
    well at least we know that after you say buy, we will have those chaseing

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  15. Rogers said the same thing last year. If you had listened to him you would have missed the run in silver and gold.

    Whether this is year 9, 10, or 11 has nothing to do with timing. The driver of the gold bull is currency debasement. If the Fed can break the dollar rally then all bets are off. Gold could begin the bubble phase of the bull market.

    This is why I track a lot more variables than just what year it is. It's why I didn't miss the rally in silver and gold last year. Although admittedly I mistimed the exit in silver by a couple of hours and then got stuck on the downside. However we got in at $21 so we still ended up with huge gains even though we gave some back.

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  16. Yeah... you are better than Rogers.

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  17. Any triangle breakout could end up being kind of a dud, regardless of whether it breaks up or down. It's not the greatest triangle in the world. Price does not fill the triangle. There is a lot of white space.

    Overall performance rank for triangles is only 16 out of 23 (1 is best) for upside breakouts, and 15 of 23 for downside breakouts. So even a great triangle can result in not-so-great returns for bulls or bears. They are also prone to throwbacks and bullbacks (failed breakouts).

    Triangles break upward 54% of the time, but still... that's nearly 50/50 odds.

    I give Gary credit. This has been a really tough market to trade for months and his model portfolio has done extremely well. It's a market were a person is forced to reevaluate nearly every week.

    http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

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  18. At timing the market? Certainly I'm better than Rogers. He even admits he's one of the worst market timers.

    Rogers is a long term fundamental investor. When he sees a fundamental shift he takes a position and then holds it until the fundamentals reverse. He saw a fundamental shift in China and took a position. That meant he also got caught in the collapse of the china bubble.

    But he has no plans to sell those positions for years or decades so it is irrelevant to him.

    I'm trying to keep emotional retail traders and investors on board the precious metal bull. In order to do that I have to try and avoid intermediate and D-Wave declines because the average investor cannot hold through those. He will sell at the bottom.

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  19. Tiho,
    Jim Rogers said on-air last week that his only big long positions are PMs and Agriculture and that he would buy even more gold if it tagged 1,600. He never said anything about expecting some kind of implosion.

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  20. No. I had to change my PayPal info and am waiting for a code from them on by bank statement. Then I can join via PayPal.

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  21. Gary,

    not only do I believe all your statements about your performance to be false, but your claim to have the best performing newsletter in the world would require that all newsletters in the world run set portfolios that you can compare, which they don't. And your claim would, of course, require you to read all these newsletters, which I assume you don't. Equally your claim that your performance is better than the performance of all hedge funds in the world is mostly funny, but also baseless as hedge funds play by entirely different rules. Start a hedge fund and then we talk. As long as I have followed your market calls, these calls and your performance was mediocre. Not bad overall, but not particularly good either. In comparison to other gold newsletters - and that's what you have here, a gold newsletter - you are nowhere near the top. You've been clinging to the precious metal bull market for performance. If that bull market would not exist your performance might not even be in the plus column. Would one have just held gold since summer 2010, non-leveraged, your non-leveraged trading would have underperformed; and if one would have held gold since summer 2010, leveraged, your leveraged trading would have underperformed; and that is despite the breakdown in gold. Despite the break down in the price of gold, gold is still up 20% more than when you recommended to sell in early summer, just at the exact low.
    You're ill-advised to make these statements about your performance. That includes your claim that you are a better market timer than self-made billionaire Jim Rogers. Rogers likes to say he doesn't know this or that and that he's the worst market timer. That's just being coquettish. You don't take him seriously when he says that, do you? He knows, and he's an awesome market timer. That's why he's a freaking billionaire.
    As far as I know, based on what you told me, you have been investing at the stock market for merely 10 years, and during that time you made some money being in gold like pretty much every other gold investor.
    Time to humble up, bro.

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  22. Jim Rogers is not a billionaire and I said the SMT is one of the best if not the best newsletter in the world. That is a correct statement.

    The reason it is is because I'm smart enough to concentrate on the only bull market left. I don't make stupid mistakes like trying to short bull markets and I control position sizing.

    I add to that cycles analysis and sentiment. The combination of all three allows me to make my subscribers consistent money and for the most part to avoid significant draw downs which the average investor can't weather and ends up selling at the bottom.

    If it was easy to make money in a bull market everyone would be rich.

    I don't know why you are such a negative person but please take it somewhere else. This is a site for making money not griping about every nonsense idea you can think of.

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  23. Hi Gary,

    I haven't chimed in here in a while, but I just read your weekend report and want to put in my two cents. Penny #1: it is very dangerous to ignore the absence of a swing low and declare a DCL for the dollar on 30-Nov simply based on instinct. Unless you have a secondary technical indicator for making that judgment, you risk undermining the value of your methodology.

    Penny #2: Gold is simply too early in its intermediate cycle... and sentiment under both gold and silver too low... to anticipate a significant decline here. In fact, I suspect gold may leave behind a Day 13 daily cycle low from Friday. Daily cycles are often abbreviated when forming within triangles, and this tendency is stronger for the last daily cycle within the triangle. So if gold breaks higher Mon/Tue, I will be counting a new daily cycle.

    Also, in response to all those expecting gold to go down just because it keeps going up... commodities are very close to setting a 2.5-year cycle low if that low was not already seen in October. There is really no room... cycle-wise or sentiment-wise... for significantly lower commodity prices in the near future. In fact, the next 2 years are likely to see the inflationary policies of the world's central banks really hit home. The next big gold decline is probably several years off.

    Happy Holidays

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  24. I just wrote to a few friends of mine that "THE WAY I EXAMINE THINGS" ...

    I saw a bunch of MINERS set up Friday in many ways that I look for --to go LONG... so I looked at MANY factors in MANY charts and also the SPX and DJIA...look really ready to go HIGHER.

    This while MANY of my friends are going short Last week or preparing to.

    Markets COULD possibly drop Mon,Tuesday until the FED mtg, or just take off from here, but here's what I wrote a few of my friends Friday(some thinking the dollar is going to rocket and Gold crash ...

    "The markets are (what I would consider) perfectly set up to rally soon ...And by that I think MINERS and the SPX etc started today and are set up for a nice move higher.

    The MINERS are nicely set up and any who sold on the 'shake out' yesterday would be left chasing. I know this doesnt co-inside with cycles timing for your GOLD count ...you may think it's late in the cycle to even hope for Miners to make $$ here... But I see set ups across the board.


    .........and AG, RIC, CDE, SWC, GORO, NG and many more are ready

    General Markets are set up nicely too

    http://www.screencast.com/t/aSJwrqb0

    LOOK at all the TRENDLINES and 5o & 200 SMA and this is NOT ALONE why I see what I'm seeing. It just fits what I'm seeing.

    THIS would form an Inverse H&S.

    When I say I see "set ups" to the upside, it doesnt mean from the "OPEN" of the markets Monday necessarily , but it means I am LONG...and I think a 'shake out' was Thursday. We could get one quick drop to the 50dma Monday & Tuesday for a final flush, but I think we are set up to go higher.

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  25. ADD to Thursdays Gold Plummet this thought...

    Examining 1 or 2 month Daily charts of AUY, RIC, GORO, EXK,NG, etc etc etc

    You could NOT tell by looking at THEIR Thursday action that on that day...GOLD shot up early and dropped from high to low $60 ...The miners charts were NOT damaged by an intraday $60 drop in Gold.

    So I believe for this and MANY other reasons that Miners are poised to go higher now or soon. (GDX didnt look quite ready, but as I said, Many individual "set ups" are ideal I.M.H.O.

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  26. Alex,
    It's possible that your triangle already reached, and exceeded, a successful downward resolution. This may not be a fake out. Triangles are not great performers, so that triangle already did very well. Anyone shorting now [based on that particular triangle] would be taking on too much risk. That specific trade is over IMO.

    Whether or not a newer, larger trade exists for the larger triangle people are talking about I defer to Gary on.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p47661648271&a=250784386

    http://thepatternsite.com/st.html

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  27. Alex,
    I was not disagreeing with you, but just saying that was a successful downward resolution of that triangle and that triangle can now be ignored. Price is now free to move higher (or lower based on some other criteria).

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  28. Doc, Alex,

    I agree with you as well...too many people short, too much pessimism...Europe is not yet falling apart, and the worst has been priced in already... 1265 will break on the S&P by this week ( Opex) and next picnic area is 1330....

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  31. How can sentiment be low when every analyst on Kitco is bullish based on the COT reports?

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  34. basil
    the performance is correct. believe what you want, but its on the money

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  35. basil
    the performance is correct. believe what you want, but its on the money

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  37. There are so many analysts out there who like to cheer their performance... Howard katz had a model conservative portfolio that made up to 300K before he passed away... now its up to 400K..How did he make such money.... by buying and holding... waiting for the major move... not going to cash on a regular basis and waiting for cycle bottoms... pure bullshit IMO.

    Cycle theory tells you that a turn is happening but the direction tends to be distorted sometimes..and sometimes doesnt pan out..

    Also, I wouldnt spend a dollar on a letter that would tell me that we aint breaking 1900.... I like gary's tactic... just collect a "few hundred or so of those dollars for his own opinions... " If they dont pan out well, you cant blame the guy cuz the markets are tricky .. right gary... but you do get to keep the money..

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  38. also... who would i trust more...gary or jim sinclair who tells you to hold onto your gold and gold mining shares... hmmmmmmmmm

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  39. DANNO

    I appreciate your observation.

    Yes, the drop from the tri angle was significant, but when I wrote that it was a 'false break down'...it is because I usually consider a tri angle pattern as a "continuation pattern"...so since the price was heading up..it should have looked like a 'continuation up' or 'Bullish Flag' .

    so when it broke down there was a lot of talk of the "tri angle failed...strong Dollar rally taking over , and we were going down a LOT further. I think it helped to shake some out.But Many are still viewing THIS AREA NOW as a place to go short.

    I dont see it yet.

    SOPHIA

    Interesting that you said 1330, my two targets are right around that area too. Even 1350 IF there is strength in the move.

    (As usual -I wish to say that I trade the markets using chart patterns , sentiment, cycles and and several different indicators. The SAFEST way for most readers here is to follow GARY and preserve capitol in hazy times of the mkts).

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  40. Lets just remember a few critical points about AU.
    - Its price reflects a) Loss of purchasing power of paper currency(debasement) b) The strong belief in government hubris and malfeasance c) That it is factor of interest rates.
    - It has a direct inverse correlation to rising confidence in the deteterioration of economic management
    - Debt and fiscal deficit growth coincide with price appreciation of gold.
    - It is real money.
    - True Wealth protector ...when all other asset classes are negative or near zero, gold shows who is King. It also has of late proven that it can also possibly be the only remaining investment that is not totally corrupted or manipulated.
    - Only when CB's stop printing money will Gold then cease its bull market.
    It is fairly clear from my observation that the near to mid term give the impression that i)debt problems are not resolved ii) Some banks and sovereigns will not avoid bankruptcy iii) USD and other major currencies will continue their race to the bottom iv) Gold will continue its bull run. v) CB's will attempt to ensure that deflationary pressures will be avoided.
    Thats been the story for the last decade. The theme is true and consistent. If you missed the first and second phase...believe me you need to be there for the third phase....its gonna be a blast...!!!!

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  41. ILUVPMS

    You arent wrong, in a Bull Market such as the GOLD BULL, you can buy and hold until the blow off top and do very well.

    I think (speaking for myself at least) try to lock in some profits if I can see a topping area forming and add to the next low to compound earnings.

    Both methods can be quite profitable, but both arent right for everyone ,I guess.

    LIQUID MOTION

    That last sentence FOR SURE, and I wont be trading 'in and out' of THAT time period, there'll be no getting back in except much higher! : ]

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  42. Alex,

    my apologies... i believe in buying and holding and that is what i meant in my ramble above..

    That howard katzs portfolio was up that much by just buying and holding.

    I think timing bottoms with cycles and all that is merely bullshit... This is a major gold bull market you dont need to be trading in and out of it and going to 100 percent cash... Gary... Im up 50 percent since June... I bought edr, and FVI after the brutal bloodbath and held on....
    If anyone bougt miners in the summer and held on they should be doing well. period.

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  43. http://www.frankvoisin.com/2011/12/06/kyle-bass-annual-letter-imminent-defaults/


    Another Kyle Bass letter. He seems to think European defaults are inevitable and will happen soon to be quickly followed by Japan default.

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  45. We'll (US) bail them out....euro cycle is bottoming...smart money agrees. Any other outcome would be way too easy.

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  46. 23% in 5 months? Corey Geer is up 700% this year.

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  47. Heck, I am up 48% THIS MONTH already. 23% is shameful.

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  48. Kyle Bass, "There is no savior large enough with a magical pool of capital to stave off this unfortunately conclusion to the global debt super cycle. We think hard defaults are imminent."

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  49. Why do you people come here to 'Gary bash'? Not that I'm trying to defend him by any means but just curious what you gain by posting about some obscure person who is supposedly up 700 percent? If you have something of value to add, by all means post away...but I think I'm getting more out of zerohedge tonight than reading this..ummm stuff.

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  50. Basils comments are spot on....yes, time to humble up.

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  51. KB is very smart but not smarter than GS and Bennie B. They are two steps ahead of him....

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  52. Do trolls get double-time for working on Sundays?

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  53. Phil, KB made a fortune (the old fahioned way) when the SHTF and GS needed to be bailed out. Ben is just a puppet.

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  54. Tom, I read Corey's site a bit...I'm sure he would be embarrassed by your lack of professionalism. I'm good with no leverage and not 'busting out'. Anyone can come on a site and be big and bad about profits...unfortunately you probably aren't so vocal about your losses.

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  55. That is really wonderful that KB made a 'fortune' from other people's misfortune and shall we say less than intelligent decisions but to think it will happen again in basically the same way is just plain not very smart. The script has been written....and this time the ending will not be the same....

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  57. Tom,
    Not unleveraged and never investing more than 75% of capital you aren't.

    There is such a thing as risk adjusted returns. In order to make 48% in a month you have to be heavily leveraged or all in on a speculative penny stock.

    Either way your risk is massive and eventually it's going to catch up to you and you are going to lose everything. In the mean time the model portfolio will just keep chugging along and by the time you go to 0 it will probably be up 50-100%.

    No one ever dodges the leverage bullet. It catches up to everyone eventually.There are never any exceptions to this rule.

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  58. Nope....and no one else (except the Really Really rich people) has a clue either. The big difference between you and Gary is that he readily admits that he sometimes has no clue....you and your friend Kyle know everything though so why are you even bothering with some random blog?

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  59. gary...

    you can be invested 100% and be making money if you are in the right stocks... Howard katzs model portfolio did well and he held long... you dont need to be timing the bottoms cashing out and jumping back in... thats pure bullshit myfriend...

    25% is not alot.... and the stress of timeing bottoms and jumping back in for a few percentage is not worth it.. ...People should always have a 70 percent core position and 30% trading... trade in and out with the small position and hold the rest long ..

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  60. H-5

    I must apologize...my last comments were more out of frustration with Tom and liquid...sorry

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  61. ILUVPMS,
    Neither one of those two stocks are up 50%. In order to post the kind of gains you are claiming you would have to takeg massive risk and heavily leverage in order to make 50% since June.

    Your risk adjusted returns aren't even in the same ball park as the model portfolio, and just like Tom and this Greer fella you are going to eventually hit a bad period and that leverage is going to decimate your account.

    I've been doing this a long time and I know BS when I see it.

    There is a reason why managers that make huge gains one year are never seen two or three years later. The reason is that they are leveraging heavily and it's impossible to be right 100% of the time. If you miss and are heavily leveraged then you can and will destroy years of gains in the blink of an eye.

    Folks this illusion of giant gains is just that, an illusion, and those gains are going to disappear because the way they were achieved just isn't safe and eventually the odds catch up to everyone.

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  62. Doc,
    The dollar is late enough in the daily cycle that I'm confident in calling a DCL even without the swing. The intraday range is so large it's going to be tough to form the swing. Whether the cycle has topped or not I have no clue.

    Gold could put in an early cycle low. It's always a possibility, I just never play it that way because most of the time the cycle low occurs in the normal timing band for a bottom. If it does then at some point I will recognize it and re-enter. The big move isn't going to come until we break out of the consolidation anyway. And that's not likely to happen quickly after the kind of move we saw from $1500 to $1900.

    I've been saying for months and months that we would probably see the CRB bottom in the fall. I think the odds are good that Oct was the 3 year cycle low. If so that would suggest that the dollar is going to break down soon.

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  63. /GC and /SI taking a dive as we speak..

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  64. I've already told you why I try to avoid intermediate degree corrections. Because most retail traders can not hold on through them. They end up freaking out and selling at the bottom. I'm am doing what is required to keep as many of my subscribers riding the bull market as possible.

    If you don't mind holding through corrections then be my guest but that strategy will not work with the majority of traders.

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  65. Doc,
    If gold does go lower into a B-wave bottom it's almost certainly going to be a whipsawing mess because sentiment is so depressed.

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  66. Gary stop assuming people buy on leverage... go and look at endeavour silver... i bought in when the whole world was suppose to crumble.. in june till now.. it has registered a 47% return.. nice try... my comments on kitco about buying this stock as well as FVI back up my statments.

    FVI is UP 51% in the past 6 months... nice try again.. go to goodle finance and check it out...

    no need for leverage.

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  67. Gary stop assuming people buy on leverage... go and look at endeavour silver... i bought in when the whole world was suppose to crumble.. in june till now.. it has registered a 47% return.. nice try... my comments on kitco about buying this stock as well as FVI back up my statments.

    FVI is UP 51% in the past 6 months... nice try again.. go to goodle finance and check it out...

    no need for leverage.

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  68. Your bias towards the dollar breaking down is very strong Gary. Ive rarely seen you be this biased on anything in the short term.

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  69. Also gary... the buy and hold method without LEVERAGE WORKS... ive been trading for a while, and realize that in a bull market like gold... you pick good stocks and hold on to them for the long run... the ones with relative strong performance rule..... So, folks its not bullshit that these gains cant be made... they can.... if anyone bought stocks with strong relative performance in june... they should be up alot.... also, silver stocks got hammered so its a gift to buy at those prices!!!!

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  70. If you entered at the exact bottom on Oct 4 then you are up 51% as of Friday's close. You also had to weather a 20% correction during that period.

    Do you honestly expect us to believe you caught the exact bottom and didn't sell during the correction has you watched a big part of your profits evaporate?

    Like I said I've been doing this a long time and I'm pretty good at spotting BS.

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  71. Aaron,
    On the contrary I have no idea which way the dollar is going to swing. The stock market 4 year cycle low would suggest it's going higher over the next year.

    The CRB three year cycle low due this year would suggest it's going down.

    Maybe our friends Tom, Basil or ILUVPMS have a crystal ball and can tell us ahead of time which way it's going to break, but I really have no clue.

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  72. gary.. i see you cant do math properly... I bought in at JUNE>>>> BOTH STOCKS IN AT JUNE>>>>>> and have held on till now.....i do well at buying and holding... i dont buy the notion of the market crashing... i leave that fear mongering to analysts so that they can get subscribers to believe that they need them ... once again.. Go to google finance and see that if you bought both stocks in june when we had a blood bath as well... you would be doing well now.

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  73. gary, you also need to stop assuming that people cant weather corrections.. give me a break... im a silver investor and have been through the thick of it... a 20% correction is just a sale... remember that

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  74. Gary,

    I dont know which way the dollar is going to break... I just hold my gold and silver, and buy miners when they are dirt cheap.. you offer a subscription to people and charge them money...

    that's my peeve with analysts, they offer mere opinions for hard earned money, that people could make on investments with a buy and hold strategy too...

    The dollar, who knows, ill tell you where gold is going a few years from now.. higher and thats all that matters.... short term gyrations is mere noise and bullshit for "the traders to enjoy"

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  75. If you bought EXK in June then you still had to buy the exact bottom and you had to weather a complete retracement of your investment in Oct.

    Do you really think anyone is going to believe you held on while you watched an almost 100% gain evaporate over a two week period?

    Like I said pretty good at spotting BS.

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  76. Phil,

    I accept, thanks. If you read the letter though you will see that Bass has done a great deal of number crunching to arrive at what he thinks will happen. He doesn't come across as all knowing.

    As for me I really have no clue.

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  77. ILUV PMS, you must just pop midol like tic tacs.

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  78. Gary, let me be kind enough to show you my transaction from td.. will that suffice and help you out...

    You are not good at spotting BS my friend..

    I bought silver just prior to 2008 and still own it... didnt sell a thing.. the only BS i see is that you dont have a thick skin and are totally biased

    I bought in at 7.90... dirt cheap for a stock that got pummelled...

    Its funny that you think that people cant time bottoms... but you and your cycles are the only thing that can.. sure thing.

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  79. On the contrary I have delivered real results. I teach people how to invest. I stress risk control and realistic returns.

    My system of cycles, sentiment and a bull market work consistently and produce above average returns while avoiding most major corrections. I don't bat 1000% anymore than anyone else but I can significant;y shorten the learning curve for most traders and I think I am accomplishing my goal of keeping as many people as possible in the game during this bull market.

    Anyone who has followed the model portfolio has made back their original subscription price 10's if not hundreds of time over.

    I purposely keep my subscription price low so anyone can afford it.

    If I don't do my job and don't produce results then subscribers can simply cancel their subscription.

    ReplyDelete
  80. Yeah... you are better than Rogers.

    ReplyDelete
  81. I never said one couldn't time bottoms. I said you had to pick the "exact" bottom in order to achieve a 51% return. And you had to watch as an almost 100% gain evaporated or a two week time span. I don't believe for one second you were able to do that, especially if your entire account is in two stock.

    Your risk adjusted return is terrible as apparently your entire portfolio is in two stocks. You are exposed to massive risk if either one of those companies has a company specific problem, like a mine flood or strike.

    I don't want that kind of risk so I don't buy individual companies. I am satisfied owning ETF's with the full knowledge that I will underperform some companies and outperform others. But I will never wake up to a 50% haircut one morning because the CEO of one of my stocks committed fraud.

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  82. Right on Gary, I've learned a TON over the last 6 months, knowledge is power. I also appreciate productive posts from others on the blog, but the negativity from some people is unfortunate.

    ReplyDelete
  83. i have my money in three stocks... slw, fvi, and edr.. thats more than enough for me...

    ReplyDelete
  84. Better than Rogers? Certainly at timing the market.

    Rogers made most of his money when the Quantum fund took a massive bet against the pound. He's rich enough now that he can just sit tight throughout a bull market.

    It would be easy to tell subscribers to just buy and sit still. Like I said, if that's what you want to do then more power to you.

    The problem is that most people are just not emotionally capable of weathering the inevitable drawdowns that occur in every bull market.

    Most traders freak out at intermediate cycle bottoms and sell. Instead I try to get investors to sell at tops when the market is stretched far above the mean, and buy at intermediate bottoms thus reducing drawdowns and keeping more people riding the bull market.

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  85. EDR = education Realty trust
    FVI = First trust/Value Line equity fund

    I thought you said you are invested in silver miners?

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  86. uh sentiment right now is too bearish and negative? what planet are you people living on?

    all I ever see from the MSM are the CNBC pumpers and cheerleaders on a daily basis, and analysts advising the sheep to BTFD every time, proclaiming that the US economy is getting stronger, and that the debt crisis in Europe is all but behind us. not to mention that WE ARE MOST DEFINITELY GOING TO HAVE the Santa Claus rally that is guaranteed to happen every single year end? how many times have I heard exactly how we are projected to hit 1300-1350 S&P from these horses mouth?

    yea ok, general sentiment is definitely too bearish and negative. I wonder what is considered normal to you folks... S&P to 1500 by years end, gold to 2500? LOL.

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  87. Looks like gold may have began to break down from the slanted head and shoulders that I have been talking about for the last couple of days. Gold just bounced off the 130dma (which was the last DCL, also back tested it 4 days into this DC and it held). Once the 130dma is broken I will be looking for a tag of the 150dma to take of the futures short. If gold finds strong support on the 150dma I may play it long for the bounce.

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  88. Gary, those are TSX quotes. EXK and FSM in the US.

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  89. I can understand putting a 10 or 20% position in SLW. But there's no way I'm going to put 66% of my portfolio into two very volatile junior miners. You are just asking for catastrophe.

    I just can't justify that kind of risk.

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  90. unknown,
    Sentiment in the stock market is mostly neutral. Sentiment in gold and silver is bordering on extreme bearishness, which is why I say that any further decline is likely to be very volatile and will destroy both bulls and bears alike.

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  91. ILUVPMs consider yourself very lucky, 50% lucky gains from holding just 3 positions, 2 of which you managed to time perfect entries at bottoms, and the big anti-PM hedge funds don't have their short claws latched on to, wow yea OK nice to see your crystal ball is working 100% well for you, let's see what happens when eventually the MM cancers start shorting the fk out of them.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Gary, why in the world do you respond to these trolls? You are just giving them the kind of attention they crave.

    ReplyDelete
  93. ILUVPMS,

    Are you sure those three stocks are all you have? Don't you have some other penny stocks that are down big? I noticed some of your posts on kitco's penny threads unless that's not you, say ATV XAG?. You can't just pick some of your winning stocks and compair them to Gary's performance. You have some losers in your portofolio too, right? Well, maybe that 3 stocks are 99% of your total portofolio. I am not a subscriber and I actually agree with you on the buy and hold strategy. But I think Gary made it very clear why he sticks with his trading strategy and I think his subscribers undertand that too.

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  94. If you also bought SLW in June then you suffered a drawdown and that third of your portfolio is only up 10%. So your portfolio can't be up 51% like you claim because one third of it has underperformed the two juniors.

    I think we all know ILUVPMS is cherry picking two winners and is conveniently overlooking his underperformers or outright losers.

    No experienced, sane investor in the world would put all of their capital into three silver mining stocks with two of them being extremely volatile juniors.

    Like I said, pretty good at spotting BS.

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  95. Great call WW, so you´re not expecting the 130dma to hold.

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  96. Gary - LOL! Nothing on TV! I had the same question as hamvestor... I remember you used to respond to another poster (mint or something) who wrote long posts and was rather combative.

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  97. You people realize that gold just broke its swing low of 1704?

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  98. my penny portfolio is a small sum of money.. only an idiot puts his full amount in pennies...

    Also, howard katz and scott silva only hold three stocks..

    my pennies consist of XAG, CMA, ATV, those pennies comprise a small portion... unlike others i dont think pennies are the move yet.. only when the big guys and mid tiers make their moves will the pennies move.

    also gary, i dont hold equal weight in each miner.. the majority of my money is in edr, second fvi, and third SLW.

    you make to many assumptions.

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  99. my penny portfolio is a small sum of money.. only an idiot puts his full amount in pennies...

    Also, howard katz and scott silva only hold three stocks..

    my pennies consist of XAG, CMA, ATV, those pennies comprise a small portion... unlike others i dont think pennies are the move yet.. only when the big guys and mid tiers make their moves will the pennies move.

    also gary, i dont hold equal weight in each miner.. the majority of my money is in edr, second fvi, and third SLW.

    you make to many assumptions.

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  100. gary,

    FVI is fortuna mining, (btw, that stock was a buy from doug casey at a buck) Ive been in and out of that one alot

    EDR: is endeavour silver.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Not a Sunday night meltdown but somebody wants out.

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  102. So what is it, do you own three stocks, six stocks, or 20 stocks? The story keeps changing with every post.

    Your first comment was that your portfolio was up 51% which you claim handily outperformed the model portfolio. You then went on to say that you owned three stocks. Two of those stocks are up roughly 51% if you managed to buy at the exact bottom in June. SLW on the other hand has significantly underperformed those two juniors and the HUI index. So it is mathematically impossible for your portfolio to actually be up 51%.

    When I pointed out how risky it is to own two volatile juniors as a major portion of your portfolio then your story changed and now you own a basket of Junior mining stocks.

    If you just want to brag about one or two stock picks that you made that have performed well then be my guest. But don't come on here with some cockamamie story that's full of holes and expect anyone to believe you.

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  103. Felipe,

    This will be the third crack at the 130dma (first shot put the last DCL in), and we are late into this DC. I dont think we just put in a DCL again on the 130dma, and a short cycle (possibly a bottom for this session if gold trades in this range for a day)...have to see how it goes here.

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  104. ww thanks, appreciate long hrs you put in. Good trading

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  105. GARY: i hardly consider Fortuna and endeavour to be risky juniors... if anything they are producers with high cash flow and great earnings.. SLW is a royalty company get your facts straight.. not risky at all.


    XAG, CMA: silver JUNIOR companies,
    ATV: gold company

    ReplyDelete
  106. Thanks WW, hope everything is going fine with you.

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  107. ILUVPMS,
    Luv the Alto pick. Holding that gem as well.

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  108. Yeah, yeah, yeah... you are better than Rogers!

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  109. W2,

    well done my friend! you nailed it!
    wishing you a fun trading week!
    Sophia

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  110. Waking up to 3 big red candles on top of 3 huge volume spikes. I think somebody wants out of their position.

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  111. Gary,

    please do not waste your time with people who come out of the blue and winge or say demeaning things! You are good, you know that you are good, you know that people are following your calls, enjoy it and don't ruin your day with people who don't deserve an answer!!
    take care mon ami, carpe diem

    ReplyDelete
  112. Sophia

    There are trolls who enjoy getting Gary spun up. I agree that no response is the best response.

    ReplyDelete
  113. Hey Gary,

    Just wondering what your outlook for gold is now?

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  114. Just want to give anyone who took the gold futures short with me a heads up, now would be a good time to take profits, or cover into a $1680 break down... gold is near the 150dma ($1665 handle) and the bounce off it may be violent.

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  115. Yeah yeah yeah...

    Sooooo busy like Rogers!

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  116. Great call WW. Enjoy the profits!

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  117. I've been sooo busy.

    Went to the shops this morning. Then checked gary's blog for tips.Then I went and got a haircut. Hurried back in time to catch another tip off Gary's blog. After that I had to have some lunch and catch up with a few friends. But that didn't last long because I made sure I hurried back to read Gary's blog for tips again.

    Its been a good day.

    ReplyDelete
  118. I'm broke now but. But fuck I look good

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  119. We'll see how well ILUVPMS rides his positions down into a yearly cycle low over the next couple of months.

    ILUVPMS berates us for not holding positions and Tiho is adamant about not chasing 11 years into a bull market.

    Maybe they should duke it out with each other!

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  120. Gold is approaching the 150dma people, anyone who wants to play a futures long if there is strong support on the 150dma should see a decent bounce back to $1688.

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  121. I'm going to take a wild guess and say that the 150 day moving average is not going to stop gold this time.

    It's almost at that point now and we should still have another couple months before the yearly cycle low is due. It seems unlikely that gold would be able to chop around in this area for the next two months without moving below 1667, especially since it's still early in this particular daily cycle and there should be at least one more daily cycle down for the yearly cycle low.

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  122. my 2 centimes of Euros: CAC40 is higher than where it should be considering the Nasdaq and the DAX...Healing process for the French market and the other european markets? Or nobody to short it anymore??

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  123. Gary,

    I agree...dead cat bounce off the 150dma.

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  124. WW,

    Good morning! Thanks for showing up and turning the focus back to what is happening with the gold market.
    I look forward to watching you in action this week. :)

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  125. Covered my gold futures short just now on the 150dma 1666.

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  126. W2,

    Nice one! don't forget the stocking of the wiffy with part of the proceeds! LOL

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  127. Damn, Gold on the way down....I guess we are seeing the continuation of the Dwave?

    Any chance this initial move out of the triangle consolidation is a head fake and it will go up? Like can happen with coils?

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  128. Gold loses the 150dma next support is around the $1643 area. As I mentioned earlier I will go long if the 150dma holds.

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  129. BTW nice play there WW

    Shorting the market anytime soon?

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  130. Long gold futures with a tight stop below the 150dma.

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  131. I like when William is bichboching in the market! That puts a smile on my face...take care

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  132. Rehypothecation.

    Closing some of my margin accounts today in order to avoid the lending of my stocks to criminals. All this before I take the next step and get them registered in certificate form and leave the US. :)

    ReplyDelete
  133. Haggerty,

    I am still short the market.

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  134. Seems the trolls have descended on the G-man once again..lol

    Gary, regardless of the specific trading decisions we all make, you're far above the need to answer the sour grapes. The other side of me actually likes to hear them bitch and moan like they've got it all figured out. Basil is just once case, where his flip-flopping on his subscription must translate into excellent trading results!

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  135. Don't know how Gary does it, I would've canned everybody a long time ago!

    ReplyDelete
  136. Careful trying to use sentiment and other secondary indicators to time the gold or any other cycle. They are purely confirming markers. When I hear people say gold sentiment is too low to support lower prices is asking for trouble.
    Sentiment can and does stay stretched and extreme for long periods of time.

    What you need to look at is the behavior of a given cycle in relationship to its preceding cycles. All cycles are related and effected by other cycles, whether its own preceding cycles or the long dated cycles. To take one cycle on it's own and look at it as being in a vacuum is not understanding cycles interdependency.
    It's been clearly shown that these gold blow-offs need time to correct. We could be in for another short IC here, so I believe there is plenty of downside room to move(regardless of sentiment) although it will be quick, we could be done in 3-4 weeks. This next move down is going to take many by surprise, but it will present us with another major opportunity.

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  137. I said with sentiment at extremely depressed levels it should make for a volatile ride down with plenty of counter trend moves because we are at risk of running out of sellers.

    However we now have an official failed daily cycle. The odds are now in favor of the intermediate decline having begun. It should last one more daily cycle after this one.

    If I had to guess I would say the current daily cycle will likely bottom around the 200 DMA and $1600. That could trigger another $100 bounce before the final cycle down and it's even possible there could be two more daily cycles down since the last intermediate cycle was short.

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  138. Gold is back testing the 150dma now, lets see if it holds.

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  139. I was referring to Doc's statement on sentiment not supporting further downside.
    I agree on your assessment from what to expect from here, although I also given decent odds that we could also see a IC fail too.

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  140. Definitely a possibility and if it happens it would confirm this as a very extended D-wave and not a B-wave.

    That would be good for us as we should be able to make some decent money off the A-wave that would be generated out of the yearly cycle low.

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  141. Hey Gary... no worries about riding my positions down... its all part of the game... If it goes down below my dollar cost average I will buy some more...

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  142. Poly,

    Every other correction after a blow off over the last 10 years has basically bottomed on the 300dma except for the 8 year cycle low...if the 300dma (currently at $1537) holds this time around also this IC wont fail.

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  143. Lots of nervousness with gold and silver around here these days. It might even go to $1200-1300?

    D WAVE!

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  144. From the sounds of things around here, I better keep some powder dry, as well as buckle up for the ride on stuff I already think I own. :)

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  145. ILUVPMS,
    Yes but in the meantime the rest of us are sitting in cash and will buy as close to the bottom as we can. (Cycles analysis usually gets me in pretty close to the bottom.)

    We won't have to endure any of the pain of watching profits melt away, and if this does turn out to be a D-wave then all of your profits are going to melt away, and you are going to suffer a massive draw down.

    It will be at least a year and maybe two before your positions move back into the green again.

    We on the other hand should easily gain another 25 to 50% on our portfolio by catching the bottom and riding the A-wave.

    Maybe you can hand a huge drawdown and 1-2 years of of stagnation but I suspect 99% of my subscribers can't. They would sell at the bottom and then be too freaked out to re-enter. They would have been kicked off the bull.

    My goal is to prevent people from getting knocked off the bull. I think this will be the greatest bull market in history. I want to keep as many people on board as possible. To do that I have to avoid intermediate degree corrections and I absolutely have to avoid a D-wave.

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  146. I'm not knocking how you're playing it, in fact I agree with your prognostications. If this is an extended D-wave as you seem to think, how far through it are we already?

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  147. Also, I didn't say this was easy. It's the most difficult trade of my career. As hard as it is, however, I find it preferable to sit in miners rather than fiat paper.

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  148. The 75 week moving average has also acted as support except during the eight year cycle low.

    If that were to get breached then I would expect gold to bottom at the consolidation zone around $1400. that would also be a 50% retracement of the entire C-wave.

    For now though I'm still assuming this is a B-Wave decline that will hold above $1535.

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  149. Phew, I can live with those possibilities. Hey, just because I happen to be on the same side of the fence as ILUVPMS doesn't mean I like having a stooge alongside me.

    I bet I'll have to watch the bull shake him and his buddies out before we resume the upside. :)

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  150. WW,
    where would you declare the 150 dMA not to hold? Is it distance below it or time spent below it (atm I'm looking at 1660-ish, 6 bucks below)?

    Curious you see.

    Thanks in advance.
    /D

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  151. I wonder what is up with AXU, already traded more than it's average daily volume and up nicely in this slaughter?

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  152. Dollar swing low and new IT cycle high as it moves past the last daily cycle high.

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  153. I'm showing 79.71 as the last daily cycle high. The dollar index is currently at 79.34.

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  154. Dub,

    It's more of a feeling it out for me...depends on the strength of the bounce and some other factors. Let me be clear though, im only refering to a short term bounce if anything. Gold is obviously under heavy pressure here and the 150dma offered no strong support, next support is around 1643.

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  155. WW
    I am already short as well, nice small but significant position, if you can just post to the blog when your getting out of your short on the general market it would be appreciated !!

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  156. Will the 490 level hold on the HUI?

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  157. WW,

    I just want to say thanks for posting all your trades and moving average signals.

    While most of us are not day traders, I find it helpful to see what you are doing.

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  158. Haggerty,

    Will do. I have been saying for weeks that I was expecting a 3-7 day bounce in the market and a run back up to the 150dma (Europe gave me a bit more of a push than I expected to the 200dma), before the market would roll over and break down to a new low...so until my stop is hit above the 200dma I will continue to look for a new low before taking off my short.

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  159. I have locked a core as well...Similar to SB, I am extremely uncomfortable holding an all cash position in this environment. This despite, Gary's most accurate views! Back to losing money again! :)

    But I am more focused on the end game, and as SB mentioned when you play this type of game it isn’t easy.

    Alright back to more important things…nothing to do…won’t add, won’t sell…

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  160. WW,
    thanks for the answer, I share your longer term view on the shiny stuff too.

    /D

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  161. I find walking away from the screen and going to the gym on days like this allows me to blow off some steam. Seems I'm there almost everyday lately. Still have some dry powder but I have left my longs from over the years in place. I've had this crappy feeling before and came out ok many times before. Pull up a long term chart and hit the treadmill before the holiday food is in front of you. Good luck all.

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  162. Just ran across this from kimble. Strong dollar chart;

    http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com/2011/12/u-s-dollar-can-you-handle-an-upside-breakout/

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  163. So, could we fall to circa 1400 in this d-wave?

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  164. This a half cycle low for the market or the start of a left translated cycle.

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  165. SB

    Interview by Tekoa desilva with Jim Sinclair. Discussions about taking physical possession of shares because of the MF debacle and other subjects. Great interview!!

    http://bullmarketthinking.com/exclusive-interview-jim-sinclair-mf-global-is-a-piece-of-dynamite-sitting-underneath-the-gold-price/

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  166. Q's calls. Looking for a bounce from here. Short leash.

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  167. James,
    We don't have confirmation of a D-wave yet.

    Unlike some people I can't trade in hindsight I just have to make my decisions in real time.

    Until $1535 is broken I'm assuming this is a B-wave. If $1535 is broken then I will jettison the B-wave theory and declare this a D-wave.

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  168. ILUVPMS,
    This is the kind of correction that most subscribers can't weather and this should still have another couple of months before it's over.

    This is why I try to avoid these things because 99% of the people caught in one of these will get permanently knocked off the bull.

    As long as they are in cash there's a decent chance they can pull the trigger at the bottom. If they have a 30-50% drawdown it's impossible to pull the trigger at the bottom. They will be freaking out and just looking to exit even.

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  169. I'm ready for gold to return to a fear trade. Currencies, especially the Euro, should deserve a huge vote of no confidence. I guess all those in Euro land are buying US dollars rather than PMs for wealth protection.

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  170. Thanks SF, I caught that this weekend. It's getting treacherous out there! Nobody can be trusted in this "industry", or at least not many.

    For the rest of my life, I'm probably finished trading futures. It's already been almost 2 years since I touched any besides the ES. I have concerns with brokers as well, and I suspect the rats at the Fed will have to step in with more confetti to make investors whole at some point, although that paper will be worth even less than it already is, and it's not much solace.

    This business has been great to me. It's difficult to accept that it's vanishing before my eyes, but that is what I have to do. More than any other, this biz is founded in trust on the other side of the trade, and I see these relationships breaking daily.

    Looks like an early retirement for me, so I have that to look forward to! LOL!!

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  171. Russell,
    Gold was never a fear trade. It was temporarily a momentum trade as it moved into the C-wave top.

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  172. And many will not come out the other side intact. This goes for pensions as well.

    I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I call 'em like I see 'em. Passive acceptance of the conditions will not be rewarded, IMO. I'm trying to protect what I've made first and foremost, and if things stay cobbled together for another couple years, it can grow some too.

    In '08 we saw many dislocations, and I wondered then how long it would take for the average, disinterested citizen to realize the ramifications. It appears this time is now directly ahead. The ONLY way out, if one can call it a solution, is to print like no tomorrow and debase the dollar to dust. We should be ok in that scenario, but anything else and everybody is gonna get hurt badly, including me. Most will not buy miners, or metals, and they get smashed even if the rats turn on the presses.

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  173. Gary,
    Do I not remember us talking about fear of currency devaluation being a driver of PMs?

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  174. Noticed how the double bottom in HUI warped into a head-and-shoulder pattern?

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  175. H&S top on Silver Daily. Careful buying into weakness.

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  176. Technically you can't get a H&S top at a bottom. That being said we should still have a couple more months before this correction is finished so there is a good chance silver will retrace to it's breakout at $21 just like I said it would and Basil so vehemently disagreed with.

    He also assured me that he would massively outperform the model portfolio by just buying and holding. I think we might be going to put that theory to test over the next two months.

    As of right now buying and holding gold since the first of the year has underperformed the model portfolio by 5%. Silver...well that one isn't even worth comparing.

    The aggressive portfolio has massively outperformed the buy and hold strategy.

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  177. Gary, what has been the performance of the aggressive portfolio?

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  178. And this only includes the returns since July because that's when I began the model portfolio format.

    If we include the rest of the year then we still have sizeable gains from the silver run even though we didn't time the exit perfectly.

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  179. It differs by individual position size and risk management skills, but as long as one didn't get stupid with leverage they should have easily doubled the model portfolio.

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  180. SB,

    "We should be ok in that scenario, but anything else and everybody is gonna get hurt badly, including me. Most will not buy miners, or metals, and they get smashed even if the rats turn on the presses."

    Would you mind explaining a bit more what scenario would cause PMs and miners to drop although the feds print.

    Your posts are greatly appreciated..

    ReplyDelete
  181. Well done Gary. Congrats.
    I don't know why you get baited by the trolls. Just ignore them IMO.

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  182. Eamonn,
    I suspect Gary likes to ram a stick down their throat sideways. How can you not love the guy? :)

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  183. Sometimes I'm just bored and when I see something that just isn't true, I feel compelled to set the record straight.

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  184. Technically you are right. Just a H&S pattern.

    ReplyDelete

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