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Thursday, December 8, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

A PORTFOLIO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE.

284 comments:

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  2. I'm back to cash except for some 'core' positions (gold allocated type securities like PHYS or similar that should get me through to the other side in case the entire system ever locks up. Armaggeddon stuff. Won't sell that).

    WW. Some of your money today is mine!
    Enjoy it
    :-)

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  3. TZ,

    May be the case, but not happy to hear you took a loss.

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  4. it's a december to dismember sales event!

    i hope no one getting too dinged.. just remember all this really means is that you get to buy back at lower prices :)

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  6. Still holding DGP. Will wait til end-of-day or stop breaks

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  7. >May be the case, but not happy to hear you took a loss.

    My mistake. I got excited as we went higher and added on. Then when we dropped some I rebought expecting things to hold. They didnt.

    I should have just held my original position from a few days ago and watched.

    Huge volume today. This could be a gamechanger. Market might have just shifted to the down direction. Of course if the EU pulls out something special tomorrow then we likely whip around and head back up. It's a mess.

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  8. "it's a december to dismember sales event! "

    lol, good one!

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  9. TZ,

    You wrote "It's a mess."

    Well put.

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  10. i wanted to buy dollar but after i've heard like there's a top, strong reversal is coming and stuff like that i decided to wait

    i still didnt learned that best money can be earned by selling ebooks, memberships, system not by trading

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  11. Well I have had enough...holding strong and letting the market do what it wants. With the CB's of the world moving markets now, trading seems the last thing one wants to do...choose a side and stay put...

    Good luck all...

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  13. KEYS,

    You viewpoint is not bad. The whole system is BK and is headed for a hard reset soon. Only those who have metal BEFORE the reset will survive. I promise you those at the top do.

    That's why it is important to understand the manipulation game...cause the are manipulating people AGAINST the end point where this is headed.

    I trade with partial funds but I darn sure have enough core to get me through the other side when this all goes up in smoke.

    Oh...and I firmly believe that right before the big RESET button gets pushed they will drive metals DOWN in a final gasp to shake remaining hands.

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  15. By John Crudele
    New York Post
    Thursday, December 8, 2011

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/fix_was_in_bloomberg_mag_seconds_t0MKHkjTB8AMZGGj8tAbtJ

    So now do you believe me? The stock market was rigged.

    It has been a little lonely telling this story over the past few years.

    But now that another news organization has finally gotten off its lazy butt, I'll tell it again: Under former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, confidential government information was regularly leaked to select people on Wall Street.

    As I've explained many times before, the Post got hold of Paulson's telephone records back in 2009. And the phone logs show that Paulson, the former head of Goldman Sachs, regularly spoke with influential people on Wall Street with whom he shouldn't have been communicating. These phone calls could have been -- let's use the word "enriching" -- for the recipients.

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  16. Although 'just holding' instead of trading wouldn't have given me a fraction of the returns I got this year. So I can't give that up as long as, on balance, it pays off.

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  17. Jarek,
    Bernanke wants a weak dollar. Buying the dollar has just as much risk as stocks. and is just as volatile. This morning the dollar was down big only to reverse on the statement out of the EU.

    The problem is that everyone wants an environment with a strong trend so they can take a position and hold on.

    Unfortunately we just aren't in that kind of environment anymore. The markets are being ripped back-and-forth by fundamental events that are taking place daily. In that kind of environment one has to have a very short term investing horizon and be willing to turn on a dime every day.

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  18. Great move ww, glad I was out.
    Are you looking for a 2nd touch of 50 today?

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  19. Man oh man, silver got bitch slap this morning, glad I sold yesterday

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  20. GARY,

    Since you seem to be reading here now I wanted to say I think it is VERY GOOD that you have backed off answering lots of (primarly premium) SMT questions and that you have also resorted to short, simple nightly posts when nothing much changes.

    You don't need to be the guy who educates new people again and again on the same topics. You don't need to handhold on the most basic of things. And you can and should certainly feel able to just say "no change" for a night's post and get on with your life.

    We like and want your comments, but they don't have to be expansive if you don't feel like it.

    Some gary is better than no gary.

    And one more comment, if you just offered one or two free SMT subscriptions to one or two relatively known people on the blog who compile and update an FAQ for all the new people you would find it WELL WELL worth your time.

    Plenty of people over there can and would do it, perhaps for free even.

    Just to put together something that covers all the questions again and again that come up.

    You dogs name. Where you live. Are you writing a book. What is a cycle. What is a trade trigger. Do you like a particular broker. How can I get SMS.

    I still don't understand why you don't have a faq yet. Save time, live life. Give somebody a free SMT login to create it and keep it up.

    My 2 cents (if you want more go see WW :-)

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  21. Silver is only down 2.5%, and we only had a 15% position. That's a .03% move in total portfolio.

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  22. PS: to anybody reading with a bit of motivation, just start typing the "Unofficial SMT FAQ" and write down all the stuff that keeps coming up.

    In about an hour of goofing off you will have info that covers a huge chunk of the questions that come up.

    It will help gary (I think. Hope I'm not suggesting anything bad). And you can just post a copy of it to the blog once ever sun night or something like that.

    That's how most FAQ's on the internet got started.

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  24. I just want to point out a few things for anyone "Brave Heart" enough to short gold (futures traders only)...

    Gold hit hard resistance at the 75dma ($1734 level) on the way up (the 75dma proved to be hard resistance throughout the entire first DC of this IC also). Wednesday Gold struggled to break out and remained below the 75dma all night into the next morning, when news finally pushed it above the 75. Most likely gold will not push back above the 75dma this late in the daily cycle, especially after today's beating.

    If Gold doesn't push back above the 75dma we will most likely be in a left translated DC, which should fail and suffer some significant downside, atleast to the 150dma at the $1665 level. One might want to put on the short sometime today with a stop above the 75dma.

    Im hoping we see gold push back up to atleast the $1730 level today to put the short on, but right now its struggling at the $1720 area and may have to settle for $1720.

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  25. SPX on the 150dma, may see a bounce here and offer some support for gold to move back up a bit.

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  27. Long gold futures for a scalp, bounce of the 50dma on gold, and 150dma on SPX.

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  28. i hate to say it since i'm short but the selling this morning has been mighty weak. think i'm just going to cover here at 1239 (short of my 1222 system target) and see what's going on monday.

    either way this market truly is a pile of garbage to trade in and i feel like a fool for even trying.

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  29. Should have a short term bottom here on gold and SPX.

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  30. Thanks to Gary (once again) for being quick on the trigger finger and pulling the ripcord. Gold couldn’t hold $1750 and oil couldn’t hold $100 you knew it was time to bail on the trade.

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  31. Bearish Engulfing
    The bearish engulfing pattern consists of two candlesticks; the first is white and the second black. The size of the white candlestick is not that important, but should not be a doji, which would be relatively easy to engulf. The second should be a long black candlestick. The bigger it is, the more bearish the reversal. The black body must totally engulf the body of the first, white, candlestick. Ideally, the black body should engulf the shadows as well, but this is not a requirement. Shadows are permitted, but they are usually small or nonexistent on both candlesticks.

    After an advance, the second black candlestick begins to form when residual buying pressure causes the security to open above the previous close. However, sellers step in after this opening gap up and begin to drive prices down. By the end of the session, selling becomes so intense that prices move below the previous open. The resulting candlestick engulfs the previous day's body and creates a potential short-term reversal. Further weakness is required for bearish confirmation of this reversal pattern.

    http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_bearish_

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  32. Silver broke Tue. low. (that is a bitch slap) especially if you are hold AGQ

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  33. WW,

    Even though I'm just observing from the sidelines, it's pretty amazing to watch you in action. Your play-by-play seems to be right on the money.
    Congratulations, and thanks for all your input. We're watching a master trader in real time, and it's quite a treat.

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  34. Took 4pt bounce off 50ma, tired of watching, placed short at 1729 will look back later. Thanks again WW

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  35. Took off the scalp for decent profits, market broke down.

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  38. Actually put the gold trade back on to ride the bounce in the /ES off the 1235 handle.

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  39. GDX finally took out those stops @ 57.00. I bet there were still many left there that the market makers could see.

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  40. If the market holds up a bit we should see gold push back up to the 1730 level.

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  42. Place your bets for Gold now... red or black? I'll sit this one out thank you.

    http://screencast.com/t/Jto39chPMj8s

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  43. SLW is not going down at all..

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  44. I see a island reversal pattern on AG (15 minute chart) w/ several gaps down to the 11/25/11 low of $13.88 where a neckline on a larger H&S Top pattern sits. I see LS:$17.67; H:$18.98; RS:$17.21. Should the neckline break the H&S Top would target $8.44. That's a drop of -$7.45 and -46.8% from today's current price of $15.88. Look out below folks.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AG&p=D&st=2011-01-01&en=(today)&id=p02690123311

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  46. I guess AG (15 minute) doesn't show an Island Reversal it is more of an Island Cluster which is an even stronger sell signal. Watch the $15.80 level for the start of a small waterfall fall to fill the gap down to $14.93. Then we'll see if the gap down at $14.09 fills tomorrow and if the neckline will hold.

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  47. Just woke up. 3:23 am here on Gilligan's island. GLD looks BULLISH to me - price went down, but did NOT make a lower low. And here we are back at 1705. If I see a MACD cross on the 30 min chart I will buy a small pos here.

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  48. Sold SDS calls. Don't want any part of the possible whipsawing tomorrow.

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  49. WW,
    All conditions are removed, house sold unless major calamity (comet strike?) event happens.
    Got 98.6% asking price and have started packing!

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  50. Miyagi,

    Good to hear my friend, I guess all went well with the inspector :)

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  51. at ease,

    Yup, market and gold crawling like they just got a beating.

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  52. WW,
    Yes it did! The home inspector said that this was the smallest file he ever had when he burned it to CD; 31MB vs the average 100MB!

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  53. Bought AGQ, the devil himself @ 55.80.. tight stop

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  55. GLD is at support on the daily chart, right against the lower boundary of the consolidation triangle. I'm finessing a buy here w/a stop just below Tues' low.

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  56. WW... Yeah it looks, like I feel. LOL

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  57. GLD testing the 11am EST lows

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  58. If silver stays flat at end-of-day it's bye-bye!

    Getting very late...

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  59. If you pull up a weekly chart of Silver up, you get the sense it's going back to test the multi-year breakout level at 20.

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  60. Draghi open to more bond purchases provided EU leaders satisfy his "fiscal compact"

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  61. Looks like QEIII is back on the table?

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  62. Oh well - DeMark DAILY SELL setups for the major indices that I mentioned the other day are being erased across the board with this down move so far today. They could be reinstated with a recovery in the afternoon, tho - close above the close 4 days earlier is required to continue the counts!
    I would highlight Ford (F), which achieved a MONTHLY BUY setup last month, good through December-March. They just reinstituted their dividend - 5 cents, not that big of a deal I know, but that's more than my bank is paying me to keep cash in savings. We'll see where F stock is come March - maybe I'll do another comparison with GDX like I did with EWJ :)

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  63. So much for those bullish COT reports on silver and gold.

    One thing that concerned me was that all the analysts of kitco were bullish on gold based on the COT reports.

    Goes to show you that the COT does not predict certain events.

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  64. WW, yeah, it ain't doing nothing, but kicking up mud. Figured you were out, but didn't see your last update on getting out. Breaktime and wait for cycle bottom.

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  65. Mentally prepare thy self when silver bottoms to the low 20's.

    I MUST PULL TRIGGER!

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  66. WW:

    Do you see falling fruit. I think I see falling fruit...

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  67. silver in the 20s? you have to be kidding me. That type of deflating value makes no sense compared to the type of inflation we are seeing with all the other raw materials.
    Yesterday i spent $120 on a regular car battery!

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  68. SLV bear flag breakout and backtest by Rambus

    rambus1.com

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  69. WW I'm with you. Agree with Poly.

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  70. damn should have held short. this market is doing a good job of tricking me into fading my own convictions.

    oh well, looking forward to tomorrow's circus.

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  71. The European Central Bank is the only game in town and Germany’s Merkel is all that stands in the way of central bank intervention

    http://jubakpicks.com/2011/11/17/the-european-central-bank-is-the-only-game-in-town-and-germanys-merkel-is-all-that-stands-in-the-way-of-central-bank-intervention/

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  72. DeMark update:
    To reiterate, all of the DAILY Sell setups on the major stock indices have been cancelled with the action today. There is still a deferred DAILY Sequential SELL 13 for SPX (futures) at 1275.92 and NDX (futures) at 2355.78, so we shall see what happens.
    One place that continues to see a DAILY SELL setup in place is AAPL, which was conspicuously green all day. Tomorrow's close needs to be above 393.01 for the count to continue. Also, the high either tomorrow or Monday, needs to be above the 395.5 hit today to perfect the Sell. The last two times a DAILY Sell hit AAPL, the stock declined from 400 to under 360, then 420 to under 360.

    From my thinkorswim sequential study, I am showing SLV on a DAILY 13 Bar BUY Sequential count Bar 12 of 13. This could record and be perfected in the next couple of days below 30.21. Good for 12 days (2 1/2 weeks remember) - I'll keep you posted. SI futures not that far along - only on bar 8.
    Speculative PTQMF.PK showing a DAILY BUY 13 3 days ago. Needs a bullish price flip, high above the high 4 days ago.
    Like I mentioned a couple weeks back, I'm seeing some possible strength in the financials into the new year. BAC has a perfected MONTHLY BUY Setup good from Jan - April. XLF MONTHLY is showing a possible MONTHLY 13 BUY - on bar 12 currently. This would be good for 1 year! GS and C are on imperfected 9 MONTHLY Buys, and JPM is on bar 8 of 9.
    Anyway, just trying to keep everyone updated with poor man's DeMark!

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  73. ckpc,

    said:

    "WW,

    Even though I'm just observing from the sidelines, it's pretty amazing to watch you in action. Your play-by-play seems to be right on the money.
    Congratulations, and thanks for all your input. We're watching a master trader in real time, and it's quite a treat."

    Thank you...really means alot, and your welcome. :)

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  74. From Jesse's cafe--pretty much sums it up

    There was a very obvious bear raid on gold today. I include the intra-day chart and have circled it for those who get their information from the mainstream media.

    There was a quite a bit of disappointment today when the ECB cut rates 25 bp rather than 50 bp, and Mario Draghi did not pledge the ECB to endless quantitative easing and the buying of European bonds.

    So why was gold hit so hard and consciously? It is a matter of control, pure and simple. The Fed is gearing up for another round of QE, and there is great concern that the subsequent rally in gold could take it over $2,000 too quickly, and they might lose control of it. The Central Banks fear this greatly.

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  75. Sorry, just one more. According to thinkorswim Sequential study, NEM recorded a DAILY 13 Sequential BUY on Monday. If it closes tomorrow above 66.34, there will be a bullish price flip (close above the close 4 bars earlier) to verify the signal. Signal is good until Dec 21.

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  76. "silver in the 20s? you have to be kidding me. That type of deflating value makes no sense compared to the type of inflation we are seeing with all the other raw materials.
    Yesterday i spent $120 on a regular car battery!"

    Hit 26-27 3 months ago. Why's that?

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  77. WW, I have to second that praise of your trading acumen with gold futures... it is a pleasure to watch and thanks for sharing with us..

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  78. Michael,

    Thank you, it's my pleasure. :)

    at ease,

    short now.

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  79. WW, Sure hope we ain't going much lower...

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  80. If this ends up being a left translated cycle then gold is going below $1667.

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  81. Barring the statement from the ECB today I'm positive gold would have broken to new highs and penetrated $1800 within the 5 to 10 days.

    The ECB changed the fundamentals today and probably aborted what would've been a right translated daily cycle in gold.

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  82. Gold is about to go negative again on the True Strength Index, which occured during the Intermediate cycle declines of this c-wave, before that only during D-waves and B-wave declines...actually gold remained negative the entire first daily cycle of this IC, only seen in D-waves. My 14,3 full stochastics is rolling over also.

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  83. Well, if we go lower, lower cost trading coming up soon. :)

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  84. Nothing gets done at the summit. Lights out for risk-on.

    Nicely played, Poly.

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  85. "Silver is only down 2.5%, and we only had a 15% position. That's a .03% move in total portfolio."

    The correct percentage is 0.375%. You are only off by 1150% (((.375 / .03) - 1) * 100).

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  88. TRADERLADY

    Long time since I heard from you, thx for saying hello.

    I am actually in Myrtle Beach right now on a small vacation : )

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  89. Chart: Its possibly "The Big Picture" --It fits Polys or JH's big picture thoughts [ just not $1400's] --and even though I like to trade the moves in between ,rather than sit on the sidelines waiting for the lows , It is good to have in the back of your mind as a short term trader.

    It MAY NOT play out, but good to see, in case history repeats .

    http://www.screencast.com/t/RPqufEfAKjl

    I thought for the size of the drop in GOLD/SILVER...most of the miners did a normal pullback (not panic). look at RIC , CDE, GDX etc down 2+ percent...they usually crash down 10% of a $40 gold sell off.

    Not sure if that is saying something. GOLD did stay above it's 50DMA and is still inside that tri-angle. SO was yesterday a "shake-out" and MINERS are leading and didnt follow?

    Many MINERS stayed relatively strong too, above 10 and 20sma...recovering nicely ,so as a "trader" it's a tough call, and you need a plan to cut losses if necessary.

    As a cycle investor, be patient and just follow Garys safer trades , your losses WILL BE less than Gains.

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  92. In addition to everything else, next week is options ex. Just before the gold plunge yesterday I was remarking to a friend that there were a HUGE number of GLD calls at 170 (which was just a small bit above the high of yesterday).

    So with this morning's news and those options it seems unlikely we get any higher than the highs of the last 24hrs through to next fri.

    Of course the fed is on the 13th and they could announce (or pre-announce) something, but frankly without any emergency they probably want to crack precious metals and will hold off.

    Just a bit more delay or down pressure and gold will cascade through the daily uptrend on the charts (we are right above it right now) and head, I think, to 1635 or something like that.

    I promise you the big guys who manipulate things (who don't exist and who clearly have no interest in gold even though they own the most in the world) are going to want to crack gold and push it over the cliff here.

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  93. If the big guys own the most gold what motivation would they have for lowering the value of their asset?

    Sometimes these conspiracy theories border on the insane.

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  94. Conversely (always think both ways), going UP from here on gold would leave the most people behind and seemingly surprise the most people.

    It would also benefit those who attacked it yesterday and got most of us out of our positions.

    So it can't be ruled out.

    But in light of ACTUALLY moving up I think the default presumption is to assume we are now going down.

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  95. Gary,

    >If the big guys own the most gold what motivation would they have for lowering the value of their asset?

    The fact is you really don't want to know and don't want to understand it. It is actually pretty reasonable and logical, but this topic is like religion and you already picked a side.

    My comment like that was for others who understand it or for people still making up their mind and willing to examing the real facts of the last few hundred years of humanity.

    I don't mean offense, but your view is set and any attempts to change it fail.

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  97. The short answer for your if you REALLY care instead of just making another red herring comeback is that those same people also run the fiat currency system which is the basis of all their power and profit. To support the use of gold destroys their fiat system, but they need to hold gold because the fiat systems collapse and reset every 50-100 years and they need the gold to RESTART the next fiat theft system.

    So they hold gold in order to restart each system, but they need to prevent use and understanding of gold while each fiat system is running or it wont work.

    Now that i've said that i'm sure you will come back with another bogus reponse.

    Example such as "if they can drive something down,why not drive it to zero" are a particularly egregious one. A 1st year econ student knows the answer yet you don't.

    It's the same reason any other govt in history cant force retailers to drive down the price of ANYTHING with price controls (even at the penalty of death which has occurred).

    The 1st year econ answer is that because it will cause that good to DISAPPEAR from the marketplace since the price will be below the true supply/demand price.

    If they push metal TOO low then it will clearly disappear and the game will be up cause people will see that.

    But again you always have an answer in this area which surprising SEEMS legit on the surface but is a joke when viewed closer.

    The facts are there in quantity should you ever really want to look.

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  98. TZ Im with you on the manipulation, but Gary will never agree with you. I gave up a long time ago.

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  99. TZ,
    Your kidding yourself if you think the world is ever going back on a gold standard. Politicians are never going to restrain their spending with that limitation.

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  100. The final point (which is HUGE in the understanding of what gold is, why 'they' hold it, and why understanding the 'manipulation' or attack of it is IMPORTANT) is what i just said and what you need to get before this game is up.

    Gold is necessary to MAKE IT THROUGH THE RESET OF TEACH FIAT CRASH. That is why they own it.

    They are prepared to MAKE IT THROUGH the crash to whatever is after the dollar and euro blow up.

    So since we will all go through that together (we have no choice) it is important that WE protect ourselves to make it to the other side JUST LIKE THEM.

    But they don't want that cause then you have the same power they have (to not get stolen from).

    So they sit on the world's majority while calling it a crap asset.

    I don't blame the idiots of the world for believe it (the idiots always lose everything and fall for all the games). But I do blame people who should know better.

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  101. Yesterdays drop in gold had nothing to do with a "takedown" All that happened was that the dollar rallied and it took less dollars to buy an oz of gold. Emotions took the process further than it probably should have but then that is the nature of human emotions.

    Currency devaluation is the fundamental driver behind the gold bull market. If the dollar gains value then it takes less of them to buy gold.

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  102. GARY,

    >Your kidding yourself if you think the world is ever going back on a gold standard. Politicians are never going to restrain their spending with that limitation.

    I'm gonna fight you this time on a few rounds this time and not roll over so people and maybe you get it.

    OF COURSE NOT we will not go back to a gold standard, that would create FAIR MONEY and PREVENT THE GUYS AT THE TOP FROM STEALING EVERYBODYS WEALTH.

    What I said was that THEY needed it so THEY can have a hard asset at the OTHER SIDE when the EXISTING fiat system blows.

    THEN, THEY create ANOTHER fiat theft system (using their gold to put 'reserves' or 'value' into THEIR banks) in order to convince people to start using whatever is next (SDRs or whatever).

    They will NOT allow or want to gold standard, but they will use the existence of the gold (which they will RETAIN and keep in THEIR BANKS) to FALSELY CONVINCE people to start using the next piece of paper.

    The next piece of paper will NOT guarantee a person a piece of that gold. They are too smart for that.

    The line will be "Thise piece of paper is BETTER and now a REPLACEMENT for that last piece of paper because the institution issuing it HAS A LOT OF GOLD."

    "having a lot of gold" at THEIR institution is not the same as saying the use of THEIR paper gives you teh right to it. It doesn't, just like now.

    But having that gold and assets allows them to be one of the few entities alive who can create that next piece of paper.

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  103. Gary,

    Have you ever understood, throughout history, how a bank is really created?

    The basis process, of course, is you issue pieces of paper and then tell people to use it.

    The people's response is always "But why? This is just paper."

    To address this point the bankers always SEED any new bank with 'capital' or 'value' or 'wealth' and then tell the people "LOOK...this entity which is creating this paper has all this expensive stuff!"

    But here is the trick!
    They do NOT GIVE PEOPLE THE RIGHT TO THE EXPENSIVE STUFF.

    They make the masses THINK that is the situation, but if you go look at the history of almost any bank ever anywhere in the world it is NOT TRUE.

    The bankers keep ownership of the bank and the bank keeps ownership of the 'expensive stuff' and the paper is sold as having come from an entity 'owning a lot of expensive stuff'.

    The dumb masses start using it cause they equate "entity with expensive stuff" as EQUALING "my paper is worth some fraction of expensive stuff" BUT IT IS NOT.

    But recall I said the masses are dumb and the history of the world is they fall for this trick over and over again.

    THAT is why the guys at the top need to keep the gold and how they will use it after to create the next currency.

    But you or I will never get it and they don't want us to figure out this game and get some of our own in the meantime.

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  105. In the worst of cases, the bankers need to create a bank with some kind of LINK to the 'expensive stuff in the bank'. But whever they do this it is ALWAYS FRACTIONAL.

    So from the start they are already winning.

    At times they have to create such a link because the blowup of the previous currency was so bad that the people don't easily fall for the trick of "the bank has expensive stuff therefore my paper is worth something".

    That LINK would be your 'gold standard' argument. But remember what I just said:

    When the bankers have to do this (they NEVER do if they dont absolutely HAVE TO), then always make it FRACTIONAL (So they already get richer by 10x or so from their initial holdings)

    But here is the trick...even when they create this SEEMING link, they still don't let and don't want anybody USING that link.

    They TELL people there is a link (to **THEIR** GOLD), but:
    a) they will not and don't want people actually using the link and taking gold instead.
    b) if and when people ever do, they IMMEDIATELY CLOSE THE LINK AND KEEP THEIR GOLD.

    THEY NEVER LET GO OF THEIR GOLD. IT IS THE BASIS OF HOW THEY RETAIN POWER AND KEEP CREATING NEW PAPER SYSTEMS.

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  106. Thanks TZ, good expanation. You are correct that there is only one reason central banks still own most of the world's gold. It is the insurance policy for a monetary system reset. There is nothing a Central Bank can hold that is better insurance. If you don't think CBs are evil, then they are pretty prudent to hold an insurance policy.

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  107. See, gary, you are a guy who climbs rocks and eats burritos. No offense.

    You are not a guy who wants to steal everybody's wealth and run the world.

    Those people exist though. And they have already thought that through. And they have done it. And they do it today.

    If you sat and tried to solve THAT problem and figure out all the issues, then you would start to realize why so many of the things are the way they are. You would also realize the necessity of all the games around gold.

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  108. Gary,

    If everybody competed on height and good looks and there were magic rocks that made people tall and good looking, then:

    A) a good guy like you would explain to people what the rocks were and come up with a fair way to share them.

    B) other people would take them all for themselves, try to HIDE and OBFUSCATE the existance of the rocks, tell people they did NOT NEED them (In fact they would try to tell people the rocks made you UGLY) and also create restrictions on owning or trading them for anybody else where possible.

    They would also create FAKE rocks that looked like the originals and tell people they did the same thing.

    On and on and on. If you sat and thought about this rock example you would see dozens of things you could do. And then if you think a bit more you will go "Hey!...wait a second....."

    Nice people don't want to think that the second group of people exist. They want to believe the world is happy and full of joy.

    That second group of people LOVE those who can't even believe they exist let alone that they would be so cruel.

    But wishing doesn't make it so and life really is better with magic rocks.

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  110. PS: applying to the last 24hrs, another way to try to get people to not want to hold magic rocks is to make them VOLATILE and to seem dangerous.

    You want people to say "Well, I thought I wanted a magic rock, but wow!...look at how crazy it is. I'm not sure that this is the thing for me."

    Volatility and uncertainty are factually known to reduce the desirablity to own any asset. There are zillions of studies on this.

    It is just one more tool in the toolbox.

    PS: Yes, I'm aware there was real news yesterday that caused the gold decline. All my comments above are more general.

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  112. I'm sorry if I overdid it. Passively sitting and getting this topic repeatedly and repeatedly jabbed at can get to you.

    I've made enough comments. The facts are there for anybody who wants to uncover them.

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  113. >But a word of warning... they don't really like white people if you go there alone.

    Maybe they just don't like brits?
    :-)

    (PS: I'm making a running joke to anybody who hasn't been following along. That isn't a real insult.)

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  114. H&S top forming on EURUSD. RT shoulder almost complete.

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  115. It must be comforting for you to blame someone or some cartel for why a bull market acts the way it does. But the fact remains that no currency in the world is backed by gold. So there is no motivation for any central bank to manipulate price. They are free to print as much paper as they wish.

    The only reason to hold gold is to retain your purchasing power. Obviously central banks are buying gold because it is a store of value but no country is going to fix their currency to a set price of gold and maintain that fix in order to back the currency. To do so would be to expose their gold to confiscation as people redeem paper for gold.

    Also almost every correction in gold is accompanied by a rise in the dollar. So not only must CB's manipulate the price of gold downward they have to also manipulate the value of the dollar higher at the same time.

    I find it hilarious that the conspiracy people always blame a move down on the evil cartel, even though it almost always occurs in correspondence with a move up in the dollar. But a rise in gold is justified as demand, as if demand all of a sudden overwhelmed the manipulators.

    The simple truth is that bull markets are solely driven by the fundamentals of supply and demand. That can not be manipulated for anything other than the short term, which is inconsequential to us. Human emotions, regression to the mean, and fluctuations in the value of currencies from time to time trigger profit-taking corrections.

    This is all just the stuff of a normal bull market.

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  117. "The only reason to hold gold is to retain your purchasing power."-Gary

    That's a pretty good reason if you ask me. I suspect other Americans will feel the same after they get clipped for 50% in a week during a "bank holiday". :)

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  118. Besides, it's not like trading is making people gobs of money these days. Sit in the dollar or sit in gold.

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  119. Gary,

    My comments above were *started* by a discussion on gold's move last 24hrs. My overall comments were not there to singularly justify a single day's decline or me getting caught in it as a normal trader.

    The comments were about gold in general, how the fiat system works, and the reasons for many of the things we see around us.

    Also, regarding your comment that there are no gold backed currencies you again reveal a lack of information.

    You are aware, perhaps, that a country can't have a banking system unless that system is also hooked into the global system, right? In other words you have to allow credits and debits with other countries or your system is dead in the water. It is a requirement to function in the world.

    The SINGULAR entity which coordinates these cross border monetary transactions is the IMF.

    (The IMF and the Fed and the BIS are owned and run by all the same people with lots of magic rocks.)

    Did you know something about the IMF? I'm going to tell you a secret.

    The membership agreement (Article 4, Section 2b) prohibits any country from having a gold-backed currency.

    Hmmm.

    So now what were you saying about no currency in the world being gold backed? Would this be because it doesn't work and/or nobody wants it?

    Or would this be because the guys running the interchange system specifically block it (AGAIN..SO AS TO PREVENT ANY METHOD POSSIBLE WHICH CAN GET AROUND THEIR FIAT THEFT SYSTEM).

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  120. www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul47.html

    This is ron paul addressing the issue of the global group of magic rock holders blocking anybody from creating a system which hurts their theft machine.

    The original letter link is dead but you can go find it if necessary.

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  121. PAUL'S original letter:
    =====
    AN OPEN LETTER TO TREASURY SECRETARY O'NEILL
    AND FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN ALAN GREENSPAN

    Why Does the IMF Prohibit Gold-Backed Currency for its Member States?

    (Congressman Ron Paul sent this letter to both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank in April. Neither has responded)



    Dear Sirs:

    I am writing regarding Article 4, Section 2b of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s Articles of Agreement. As you may be aware, this language prohibits countries who are members of the IMF from linking their currency to gold. Thus, the IMF is forbidding countries suffering from an erratic monetary policy from adopting the most effective means of stabilizing their currency. This policy could delay a country's recovery from an economic crisis and retard economic growth, thus furthering economic and political instability.

    I would greatly appreciate an explanation from both the Treasury and the Federal Reserve of the reasons the United States has continued to acquiesce in this misguided policy. Please contact Mr. Norman Singleton, my legislative director, if you require any further information regarding this request. Thank you for your cooperation in this matter.

    Ron Paul
    U.S. House of Representatives

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  122. It's like the matrix gary.

    They hold all the keys. They've locked all the doors. And they've thought through all the angles.

    Their fiat theft system is the most powerful thing ever created and they will protect it to the end.

    And one of the biggest coups is making most people think they don't even exist. That's how good they are.

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  123. Gary I respect you and am arguing in a intentioned manner. I hope this doesn't strike you wrong. I just assert to you that you are missing some very important information.

    Yes, day by day as we little guys try to make money we can only do what we can do. And within that context proper trading is important.

    Be we can still recognize the bigger picture.

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  124. SHERRIB,

    I have no blog, but you don't need me.

    I've given you the start and if you simply have the desire to read and learn you can find the answers yourself in short time.

    When the pupil is ready, the master appears. Maybe you just became ready.

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  125. Anybody shorting the market here?

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  126. How about one more example for fun.

    For those who don't think large, long term wealth theft schemes are possible.

    Did any of you know that the use of a diamond to symbolize value, wealth, LOVE or marriage is only a recent phenomenon?

    Did you know that it was CREATED through meticulous work, deception, corruption, control, etc.?

    It was created first in the US (case we were the richest country and you want to start where the money is). But it is now being moved to asia where they are starting the practice.

    www.edwardjayepstein.com/diamond/prologue.htm

    You have an excellent read there if you wish to see how such wealth games are created and played.

    To those who don't want to believe about gold or fiat (or diamonds), that's ok.

    Have a cookie.

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  127. Haggerty, me

    about 10 minutes ago - opened sqqq

    so, shouldn't gold have broken out of the triangle by now? The suspense is killing me

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  128. Sorry for all the posts.
    Back to other things now.

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  129. TZ (8155)
    I enjoy your posts! Whether or not I agree or not they DO make me think.

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  130. More Demark info:
    I was reading Kevin Depew's twitter feed @kevindepew. As I stated yesterday, we need to get above SPX 1270ish level to hit a DAILY Sequential sell signal - good for 12 days. However, we are also working on a MONTHLY Sequential sell in SPX. This is showing up in both the futures and the index. To perfect the signal, we need a close above Bar 8's close. From my thinkorswim Sequential study, this would be 1326.5 /ES futures, or SPX index 1327.22. Once the signal records, that implies 12 months of downside pressure - this agrees with Depew. NDX is already in the midst of one of these MONTHLY signals, recording in May according to Depew, so good until April. thinkorswim isn't showing that one unfortunately. Regardless, there is already a divergence between the SPX, financials, and tech. This is the dispersion that Depew has highlighted and seems to indicate something different is going on than in 2008. The SPX Monthly Down support level is 1049 - to qualify a break of this level we need an up month, followed by a down month below that level, so earliest this could happen is February. The SPX already qualified a WEEKLY down break at 1219 with a target in 1140's, but it seems the Demark gang is looking for a move up to 1330ish first before selling takes over.
    Clear as mud?? Correctamundo! :)

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  132. Anyone expecting the ES to hit 1277 today?...No?

    Good

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  133. Gary asked,

    "If the big guys own the most gold what motivation would they have for lowering the value of their asset?"

    Since they have no intention of trading their assets for pieces of worthless paper one answer is very simple. They wish to accumulate more gold in exchange for fewer pieces of paper.

    Another reason is they have fractionalized the gold and are worried about a run on the bullion banks. Since gold cannot be printed during a bank holiday such a situation would lead to bullion bank physical defaults and would also lead to a collapse of international banking.

    It's all very obvious to the casual observer but the fanatic paper money zealots will never understand.

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  136. I have many links. If you are truly interested just google 'fractionalized gold'.

    When you realize the supply of gold (flow to stock) has been increased at least ten fold, through the use of paper equivalents, you'll understand why I say it is obvious. As said above even an "econ 101" student knows the rules of supply/demand.

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  137. dont short S&P ...S&P 500 yields ismore than the 10-year U.S. note

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  138. TZ, et. all,

    You are aware of the MF Global blow up, using client securities to bet on off-balance sheet, leveraged EU sovereign bonds. This was all "legal" via re-hypothecation. The sad news is that this isn't restricted to MF Global, they are all doing the same thing, some worse than others. One name mentioned in the linked article is IB.

    http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Securities/Insight/2011/12_-_December/MF_Global_and_the_great_Wall_St_re-hypothecation_scandal/

    "Engaging in hyper-hypothecation have been Goldman Sachs ($28.17 billion re-hypothecated in 2011), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (re-pledged $72 billion in client assets), Royal Bank of Canada (re-pledged $53.8 billion of $126.7 billion available for re-pledging), Oppenheimer Holdings ($15.3 million), Credit Suisse (CHF 332 billion), Knight Capital Group ($1.17 billion),Interactive Brokers ($14.5 billion), Wells Fargo ($19.6 billion), JP Morgan($546.2 billion) and Morgan Stanley ($410 billion)."

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  139. Did you see this reply from IB on Elite Trader?

    Interactive Brokers has a rebuttal on Elite Trader to some of the accusations:
    "Wow - pretty serious accusations here but how many of you really understand what hypothecation is? This is all about margin and stock loan. Remove the ability to hypothecate and you might as well suck out a massive amount of liquidity from the system.
    First, let me get this out of the way. The accusations or assumptions that IB client money is used to fund Timber Hill are completely false. The companies are separate.
    Client money is segregated. However, if you utilize margin and are long shares, IB can lend some of those shares out to others. These are not risky loans as there are limits on how much can be lent and they can be recalled at anytime and marked to market real time. Those are the rules, they are fair, not risky and add a ton of liquidity into the system.
    The comments and fears presented here are a classic over-reaction to margin lending. Do not put IB or other firms on the same plate as MF. IB has a very strict policy when it comes to margin and deficits (ie. real time liquidations) and a very conservative risk management and investment policy. Many clients scream that they want more margin and that the stock loan list isn't long enough and now many of you are calling the kettle black. Before believing everything you read, do your homework and then decide if the practice is risky. Some banks are silly when it comes to greed and what they lend out. Others are not. IB has a long history of being conservative and risk adverse. Our large capital base and handling of client credit should also provide additional comfort. Many of the comments and assumptions on this thread are baseless.
    Let's not over-react and create fear where their should be none - and I say this in regards to the comments on the other firms mentioned in this thread as well.
    I need to put in a days work now so do not expect any replies for quite some time from me. I agree this is something that needs further clarification so you can be better educated on the subject as well as placate the unfounded fears expressed here. However, this this discussion should be for the industry and not single out IB."

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  140. Sherri,

    The easiest place to start is to watch a YouTube video titled "Money as Debt", then if you want a more detailed account, watch "The Money Masters". If your interest is piqued then start reading the Austrian economists....Von Mises, Hayek, Hazlitt, Rothbard, etc.
    Read "The Law" by Frederic Bastiat, it is a quick read, and an eye-opener.

    Now, the question is, do you want to open your eyes?

    Everything TZ and High5 have said is absolutely correct, and provable if you have the eyes to see. The vast majority refuse to challenge their belief system, and it is usually an exercise in futility trying to educate them.
    I give TZ props for trying.

    The truth is out there, but you have to thirst for it.
    I hope you make the effort.

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  142. I agree with TZ...a student of history can clearly see the involvement of the big banks in corruption and currency (and gold) manipulation. This is not new...gold manipulation is key to mantaining the value of the world currency and I believe it is clouding the cycles Gary uses to determine direction of the PM's.

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  148. Glenn,
    Complete nonsense. Cycles are working just fine. We are making money and that's all one can ask for from a tool.

    And anyone with a charting service can pull up a 10 year history of the gold bull market and clearly see that there is no manipulation, or at least no successful manipulation, of the gold market.

    Where in the world do you people come up with this crazy stuff? You really need to quit reading the GATA crap. It's nothing more than a scam to get your money. At least cycles are helping us make money. GATA is just giving people an excuse for why they lose money.

    And ultimately that's all this conspiracy bunk is... a scam so they can use the conspiracy as an excuse for why you lost money.

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  149. I learned about a new feature at Thinkorswim called "range bars". They've been around awhile on other software. Inspired by coolkevs, I combined using the range bars with the Sequential (DeMark) signals. Playing around with the size of the range bars and the timeframe for the Sequential signals, I found some good (in hindsight, that's always easy!) recent trades on GDX, AGQ and DGP.Here's one example.

    Tips for range bars on Thinkorswim:
    To switch to range bars:Style, Aggregation Type, Range
    To change range bars: Ctrl+S, Time Axis, Price Range

    DGP: Using $0.25 range bars and parabolic SAR
    Using Sequential (DeMark) on 30 minute timeframe
    The Sequential buy is confirmed by a close above the 4th prior bar's close
    Buy at 58.12 on 12/6 Sell at 59.49 on 12/7 Profit: 2.4% Holding time: 2 days

    http://screencast.com/t/HxGqX5EyG

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  150. High 5,
    The supply of stock in the general stock market has increased many times more than the gold market through derivatives. Does that mean there's an evil cartel trying to suppress the stock market?

    Do you people even read the stuff you write?

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  151. Big sell-off coming at the end of today's session. The ascending triangle on qqq looks like a bull trap.

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  152. Gary said,

    "The supply of stock in the general stock market has increased many times more than the gold market through derivatives. Does that mean there's an evil cartel trying to suppress the stock market?"

    "Do you people even read the stuff you write?"

    The question should be do you, Gary, read what I write? Evidently not because, as usual, all you give are Red Herrings and Straw Men.

    Read it again and please inform me where I spoke of "evil cartels".

    Having said that, the Bullion Banks are in a cartel as is the Federal Reserve system. Do you refute this? If so you need to do some reading and thinking.

    If you are admitting that the supply of gold flow has been increased then end of debate since this obviously means the price of gold is being held artificially low due to a synthetic increase in supply.

    The issue of temporary and short term price manipulation only concerns me to the point it can be exploited to make short term profits. I don't read GATA articles as they are useless to me.

    What concerns me most is the possible collapse of paper gold and a run on physical. The reasoning should be understood on the face of it.

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  153. in the words of jay z paraphrasing mark twain

    A wise man told me don't argue with fools
    Cause people from a distance can't tell who is who

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  154. I went a little short here, put a stop underneath it all, I think it's worth the risk. Probably risking 5% at most

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  155. The only time you will have to worry about the collapse of the paper market will be after the bull market is over. Holes don't spring up when the tide is rising, hey happen on the downside when things are breaking.

    And there will never be a "run" on the physical market. Simple supply and demand rules will always apply. If supply shrinks price will rise to a level that brings supply back into the market.

    It's the same reason the last bull market ended. It's the reason all bull markets end. Price rises high enough to bring a flood of supply and liquidity eventually drains off into undervalued assets.

    I assure you gold is not immune to the natural forces of the market.

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  156. Gary - I heard in the last radio interview that you were into the energy bull market a few years ago. Were there a lot of talks about Oil being manipulated back then (when you were trading the energy bull market)?

    thanks,

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  157. Of course there were. Conspiracy theories are parasites that attach themselves to every bull market.

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  158. Oh, thanks Gary. So it is not specific to the Gold. Whew.

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  159. "The only time you will have to worry about the collapse of the paper market will be after the bull market is over. Holes don't spring up when the tide is rising, hey happen on the downside when things are breaking."

    Yes and when the bull market in paper currency ends the last refuge for wealth will be hard assets. As people flee the paper assets they will in large numbers demand segregated gold (beginning now.....note the increase in large vault services due to requirements of segregation). If all the gold owned does not exist then we will have a run on physical as paper gold collapses in value.

    "And there will never be a "run" on the physical market. Simple supply and demand rules will always apply. If supply shrinks price will rise to a level that brings supply back into the market."

    As you have noted yourself on many occasions gold operates on different price/demand rules. Since nearly all of the worlds gold reserves are held as wealth preservation instruments an increase in price does not lead to a commensurate increase in supply (opposite of normal commodities/consumables) especially in what appears to be a collapse of faith (confidence) in fiat moneys and paper assets as they devalue.

    "It's the same reason the last bull market ended. It's the reason all bull markets end. Price rises high enough to bring a flood of supply and liquidity eventually drains off into undervalued assets."

    The last gold bull market ended mainly because Volcker increased real interest rates to positive. That is impossible now since the interest payments on national debt would create immediate default or negative interest rates through printing. If rates had remained negative the dollar would have collapsed and gold would have maintained a high value (though I agree not the spiked value).

    "I assure you gold is not immune to the natural forces of the market."

    In this we agree.

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  161. Not impossible, inevitable. There will come a time when it is more painful to keep printing than to just default. That's what happened to Volker in a sense. It was less painful to inflict a double dip recession on the country than continue to let inflation run unchecked. so he made the hard choice and the gold bull came to an end.

    The same thing will happen this time. There will come a time when the lesser evil is to just default than to unleash a hyperinflation.

    Maybe you think the powers that be will choose that path and maybe they will. I think that when a crisis forces us we will make the hard choice simple because the hard choice will be less painful than any other option.

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  162. I don't think conspiracies are limited to, and attach themselves to every bull market. If so, what was the conspiracy theory during the internet boom?

    High 5 asks some very logical questions. Conspiracies have existed throughout history and to deny this is being naive at best. Whether or not they exist in metals, I cannot say for sure (nor do I care too much), but they sure seem a likely candidate as competing currencies to the fiat system. Whoever controls the issuance of money controls everything. They create paper money to buy favors and power, so would not like gold taking center stage as they can't snap their fingers to create the "wealth" needed to do these things. Rest assured Gary, if there isn't a conspiracy in metals, it's not because they haven't thought of it or already tried.

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  163. Gary,

    To say a bank run is impossible unless the underlying is collapsing is missing the point.

    During the bank runs of history you should note that the USD (what was being demanded and was in short supply) was not collapsing in value but actually increasing as the economy collapsed and companies were going bankrupt (deflation).

    A bank run can happen on physical gold as it increases in value and as the economy collapses and paper assets decrease in value.

    The big difference is that gold, unlike paper, cannot be created from thin air and delivered to the banks during a bank holiday.

    If you hold paper gold during a run on physical you will lose your ass. Good luck transferring to shares of stock if this scenario plays out.

    What you don't understand is that gold is money and not just an ordinary commodity.

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  164. Regarding Volcker ending the bull market, if I'm not mistaken, gold continued to rip higher for several months after he jacked rates, before eventually collapsing. Some good gains were left on the table by those that exited on the news of higher rates, so don't sell too soon! :)

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  165. SB,
    The question is whether gold is successfully being manipulated? I think any 5 year old can look at a 10 year chart from across the room and answer that question.

    The other question seems to be this idea that gold is going to back currencies again or maybe even be used as currency again. It almost certainly will not.

    Politicians want to spend and they don't want limitations on that spending. A gold backed currency would put limitations on political spending.

    That is just never going to get through congress or parliament or any governing body in the world today. One is just kidding themselves if they think the world is ever going to go back to a gold backed monetary system. It's just never going to happen. Well at least not as long as politicians are human. Now if we were to elect a governing body of robots then it might have a shot.

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  166. "If you hold paper gold during a run on physical you will lose your ass."-High5

    I could not agree more. It is entirely possible that futures and GLD type etfs are going through the floor at the same time physical and miners are skyrocketing. I have no idea on the timing or if this even occurs, but it is a possibility if investors realize GLD might have shenanigans so dump it while rushing to the real thing.

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  167. "Not impossible, inevitable. There will come a time when it is more painful to keep printing than to just default. That's what happened to Volker in a sense."

    It could very will reach a point of being totally out of control. To deny this is to deny the lessons of history. Volcker had many things going for him in that period a few of which were low national debt, low deficits, small welfare state, small governments, great balance of trade, no impending depression, beginning of dollar decline not its end. I could go on and on about the differences between then and now but I think you know that today is light years away from then in economic terms. And also all the money needed has been created and is waiting all around the world to flood back into the US as the panic sets in. It could be a parabolic drop in value until zero is reached and nothing any banking official can do about it.

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  168. I cannot say if gold has been successfully manipulated for the last 10 year bull, but neither can you just because the chart goes higher. What if gold would/should normally be at $10,000/oz by now? Can you prove that is shouldn't be, and how?

    We can't know for sure, but we do know that conspiracies exist in many facets of life. Some people cheat whenever possible. Schoolyard rules never change, and the laws politicians (criminals) make are intended to obfuscate this fact.

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  170. High 5,
    If you own paper gold and you decide to call for delivery then your counter party will have to go into the market and pay whatever price the market demands to supply that gold.

    Natural market forces will raise the price of physical to the point where supply comes back into the market.

    For some reason you seem to think that the laws of nature don't apply to gold. I can assure you they do. It doesn't matter whether something is money or not it is still governed by the laws of supply and demand.

    This whole notion that we are going to see an Armageddon collapse and gold won't be available at any price is pure lunacy. It never happened during the last bull market or the one before that or any previous bull market. All bull markets end. They are all driven by supply and demand and human emotions.

    That is never going to change as long as humans are human.

    You are just setting yourself up to get caught at the top of the bull with these illogical ideas.

    I saw the same type of reasoning at the top of the oil bubble in 2008. Investors were rationalizing why oil would never go down even though we had so much supply there were tankers sitting in the gulf with no place to unload their oil.

    The same rationalizations were used for the housing bubble.

    These things never change because human nature never changes.

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  171. MF Global broke every rule possible with the plenty of laws already on the books, and it was done with a banker/politician at the helm no less!

    Somebody will always cheat, might as well accept it. I think PM's are likely no different.

    :)

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  172. One thing for sure, manipulation or not, metals have a LONG way to go. Better own some miners if you don't have any more room for physical!

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  175. SB,
    Sure I can prove it. Because it's not possible to manipulate a true bull market with true fundamental demand. Never in history has it been possible, the laws of supply and demand prevent it.

    Nothing the government or Fed can do can break the laws of supply and demand. All they can do is speed up price appreciation by creating artificial supply shortages. It is impossible to suppress price in a true bull market. Any attempt to do so will create a supply shortage which causes price to rise even faster than it would if the market were allowed to normally function.

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