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Tuesday, December 20, 2011

STOPS

Potential stops have been posted to the website.

231 comments:

  1. Gap up Tuesday. Ready to ride the G-train

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  2. I think I just entered the timing band to mess my shorts. Come on snake eyes! Err... wait.

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  3. Any higher on gold here and we break the last main resistance line from this consolidation zone.

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. Gold approaching the 200dma, SPX the 150dma.

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  6. WW:

    For your moving averages; i.e., 200sma.... are you using NY spot gold or the active COMEX futures contract; i.e., Feb gold?

    Feb gold is already a smidge over $1,617 while NY spot is hanging around $1,616.

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  7. All Demark DAILY BUY Setups for the major indices that I mentioned yesterday are cancelled with the rally today. GLD BUY because it recorded the other day is still active until tomorrow. GDXJ recorded an imperfect 9 BUY yesterday, good thru Friday. If you remember, we had a whole bunch of SELL Setups on the major indices a few weeks ago that were also cancelled, but we still rolled over anyway.
    BAC BUY setup looks like it might also be cancelled, but it is recording a DAILY Sequential 13 today - good for 12 days - this rally might have legs!

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  8. Riley,

    Move your stop up now to $1600.

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  9. Unknown,

    Im using Feb contract. 200dma is at $1621.

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  10. If gold and the market are to reverse its going to be now, if not they will pop above the 200dma and 150dma like they are jumping out of birthday cakes.

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  11. WW:

    Hmmmm. Stockcharts shows the 200sma at $1,617.24 and we're above that.

    Not sure it matters right now. This move looks quite powerful and should take us well above the 200sma.

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  12. Unknown,

    Your looking at the spot price, im looking at the Feb futures contract.

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  13. Gold and the SPX just basically kissed the 200dma and 150dma and backed off.

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  14. Now if the market and gold are to continue strong today the pullback off the 150dma and the 200dma will be just that, the only decent pullback we get today as both break out and chug higher into the close, or the daily highs are put in.

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  15. Thanks WW, already done. Would have missed this pop, much thanks. My chart says 1620 needs to break, then maybe 1665?

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  16. Riley,

    The 200dma is at $1621 and gold just smacked its head on it, above the 200dma we have the 175dma with the 10dma slanted down and crossing over it at around the $1650 handle, if that dont give gold a hard time the 150dma is at $1670.

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  17. Riley,

    When gold breaks clean above the 200dma, move your stop up to the 220dma currently at $1601.40, then watch those levels of resistance I mentioned in the previous post. Look to take profits 8-10 days into this Daily cycle, which ever level of resistance falls within the timing band. If gold reverses sooner than expected your stop is in place already.

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  18. Gary,
    You're making me believe.

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  19. #Bloomberg: 'Silver and gold are in clear divergence and it is a serious sign of a market reversal'- R. Prehter

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  20. Since the last low silver is up about 5%
    Gold about 4%

    Where's the divergence?

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  21. He was refering to this years movements that silver made historic top im May and failed to do follow Gold in September. And that's from EW institute

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  22. Ahh yes ... YTD silver is actually flat maybe even down a little this year.

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  23. WW

    Said
    " Look to take profits 8-10 days into this Daily cycle"

    I don't want to take any profits till 2012. I don't want to mail anymore $$ to those looser in Washington.

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  24. '"When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get rich more easily by graft than by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you. . . you may know that your society is doomed." Ayn Rand - Atlas Shrugged

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  25. SF,

    Lol..I hear you, but you dont want to give back profits either if gold tops out early in this cycle and your long futures.

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  26. >If gold and the market are to reverse its going to be now, if not they will pop above the 200dma and 150dma like they are jumping out of birthday cakes.

    Gold is stopping (again) at the upper trendline I mentioned earlier. This is the 5th time and it clearly had the chance to break above it today. (It is now later in the day when volume dries up for gold - it works different than stocks. So a breakout today is now very unlikely).

    I have to say that I'm starting to get the feeling this is a bear flag on gold. It has a very defined channel at this point with numerous new slight highs repeatedly - all unable to gather any followthrough buying.

    I think we need to be VERY careful here. I really expect this rally to break through and show some results and now I'm not liking the vibe.

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  27. How things look going into the 4pm close might help clear the picture.

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  28. NL is hot on the huge H&S bottom on the dollar index. backtest complete.

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  29. TZ,

    You need to be more patient. Gold is struggling , but so would anything else that just got thrown in a hole. Gold backed off the 200dma today, it's to be expected.

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  30. TZ,

    Let me be clear..when I said

    "If gold and the market are to reverse its going to be now, if not they will pop above the 200dma and 150dma like they are jumping out of birthday cakes."

    When I said "reverse now" I meant a pull back off the 200dma, thats exactly what we seen. Now gold is consolidating under the 200dma, which is normal after a pullback off an SMA, and the SPX is holding above the 150dma after it popped out of it.

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  31. ZN Daily SELL Setup in DeMark land is paying dividends today - my small TBT position is up 5% today. Seems like when treasuries selloff, they do for a few days. The 50-day is down at 117.54 in TLT land.

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  32. I'm just also saying we have a perfect bearish flag the last 3 days, correct or not.

    I'm still long 1x, but I've gotten hurt in the past by not looking both ways on a trade.

    I would also suggest that the mindset of (at least me) and others I know who are eagerly looking up, buying the slight breakouts higher and then seeing it drop back down again - thus forming the flag - is the exact psychology which accompanies such a pattern. So not only is it on the chart, but I'm following and feeling it in my head.

    7/20/10 is a bear flag that looked like now and then plunged lower to a final low.

    conversely, 2/9/10 is a intermediate low which also formed a bear flag, but kept climbing.

    Those two examples for anybody who wants to study a bit. Just my thoughts as we try to figure out what is going on.

    There are a few people including poly that can see and argue for another cycle lower. I'm just making a case and evaluating 'what if I am wrong' as prudent measure.

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  33. TZ,

    I hear you, I, as Poly, have been talking about this daily cycle possibly failing also, but its highly unlikely it will roll over in 4 days, and I think Poly would agree with that.

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  34. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  35. Yeah, I'm just feeling the same, TZ.
    I know it would mean Gold's gonna grind higer (wall of worry, we all know that) but I simply couldn't resist this fear and lightened my positions to 0.5x (from 0.8x).
    Well, at least I'm gonna sleep a bit better. So anyway it's worth it for me.
    On a breakout I may be just adding again, depending on price action dynamics.

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  36. My point is, I'm gonna feel much more comfortable above the 200-day...
    And once above it, on any retest that holds (if we ever get one, of course) I'm gonna go agressively long. That's my short term plan.

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  37. Poly, PC, DG, TZ et al,

    I have a question about trade triggers. I lost a good position a few days ago because I used the “Last” operator as the trigger and the “trade” that caused the trigger to fire was a trade on the MM’s book that he had leftover and used to fill a current order. It was way off the current bid/ask spread. TZ warned me, but now that I’ve learned the hard way, I won’t make that mistake again. This time I’m using the “Ask” operator:

    “If the ask of GDX is less than or equal to 51.1
    Sell 300 GDX at market.”

    Is this how you set your triggers? If not, what do you differently?
    I trade with TDAmeritrade.

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

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  38. I think this is the perfect reason why you can't look at chart patterns in isolation. If sentiment were not as depressed as it is then the result could be a bear flag, but I have to agree with Gary that this chart looks like an intermediate bottom, when taking sentiment into account. Also its funny how GLD vs /GC paint a much different picture on their daily charts. GLD (which you can think of as a US market only /GC) made a lower low than 9/26 and to me it currently looks like a swing low on a stair-step down move has formed.It definitely looks bullish in the short/intermediate term.

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  39. TZ,

    You compared 7/20/10 to the last three days action... gold was on its way down into an intermediate cycle low on 7/20/10 that finally bottomed right on the 150dma, as did every intermediate cycle low of this entire c-wave prior to the july ICL. I dont think its a good idea to compare the move out of a daily and possibly an intermediate cycle low to a move down into an ICL.

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  40. TZ,

    Another thing, I have pointed this out many times in real time during intermediate cycle declines (it enabled me to call the exact bottom in july)...

    on the way down into an ICL gold pauses and crawls the 75dma, then drops to the 100dma and crawls it, then drops to the final ICL on the 150dma. If you look at the IC decline during 7/20/10 with a 100dma applied you'll see that gold was in fact crawling the 100 (which you labeled a bear flag).

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  41. Coolkevs,

    coolkevs said...
    All Demark DAILY BUY Setups for the major indices that I mentioned yesterday are cancelled with the rally today. GLD BUY because it recorded the other day is still active until tomorrow. GDXJ recorded an imperfect 9 BUY yesterday, good thru Friday. If you remember, we had a whole bunch of SELL Setups on the major indices a few weeks ago that were also cancelled, but we still rolled over anyway.
    BAC BUY setup looks like it might also be cancelled, but it is recording a DAILY Sequential 13 today - good for 12 days - this rally might have legs!

    December 20, 2011 8:20 AM

    I've been trying to learn more about how to trade TD indicators since you started posting about them. The TD Sequential is free on TOS and I like it. What does "good thru Friday" and "good for 12 days" mean in your post? I've found definitions but not really how best to use or trading rules for the Sequential. Do you have access to other TD indicators you like and can share? In a recent interview I heard TD say his Combo was part of his advanced TA package and related to the Sequential. Can you tell me anything about sourcing the Combo or if it's worth getting? If you'd prefer to take this off-line, let's share e-mails. Best, CM

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  42. Hi Lee Fou,

    Yes that sounds right. Or you could use the trade price for such a liquid stock.

    Although I don't see at the market, i use a tight limit price that will hit, but won't get screwed.

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  43. Poly, What if a gap down happens overnight? Wouldn't the trigger trade still be vulnerable to a bigger loss?

    What do you mean, "use a tight limit price that will hit, but won't get screwed."

    Thanks!

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  44. Oil trading has been halted by the CME ...weird.

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  45. Mr contrarian Dennis Gartman has suggested buying gold stocks.


    http://bullmarketthinking.com/dennis-gartman-people-may-move-away-from-gold-futures-towards-something-else-that-might-be-gold-stocks/

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  46. SF--

    Are you serious?!!! What a complete Hack! Yeah...ummm...these stocks are going up so I think you should buy them now.....

    Too comical...

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  47. Just for fun- arsenal toolbox for investing:


    1) Rational tools: technical analysis, fundamentals, cycles, sentiment, seasonality, Opex timing, etc etc


    2) "Irrational" tools: psychic phenomena.


    This guy has had some major hits (when he predicted the Japan 2011 tsunami almost to the day) as well as misses (he admits them).


    Interesting that he predicts a drop for the euro (i.e. $ up) in 2012...


    http://blairrobertson.com/blog/


    "I predict that the Euro will drop below $1.25US before the end of May"

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  48. WW, did you buy some RGLD today?

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  49. Guys,

    I have a serious question I would appreciate if I could get some quick input on.

    I'm thinking of grabbing some 50 ounce bars from First Majestic at 32.50/oz tonight.

    Are there any big issues I need to be aware of other than the storage issues?

    Do I need to pay sales taxes, fed taxes, taxes of any kind? I remember there being commentary that you should buy coins because of some tax advantage.

    Would I have a really big problem down the road (years) selling them? How would you sell a 50 oz bar?

    many thanks.

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  50. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  51. 50 oz. Bars are cheap (i.e. Low premium) but are not very liquid. I would stick with 1 oz rounds or 'junk' silver to be on the safer side.

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  52. RJ,

    I bought Silver Bars/coins (couple 1KG bars and many coins) from First Majestic in 2009, and I remember there was no tax. However, I had to pay some shipping plus insurance fees though. Btw, it took about 1 month before I got my silver Bars from First Majestic.

    The only issue is when you try to sell these silver bars/coins from First Majestic to some dealers, you have to sell at a discount (compared to American Silver Eagle coins that might be able to sell at a premium).....

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  53. Phil,

    First Majestic has the 1 oz rounds for the same price per ounce, same premium.

    KHC,

    Did you have to sell below spot? Right now they are priced $3 above spot per ounce.

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  54. RJ,

    My suggestion is that it's okay to buy Silver Bars/Coins from First Majestic only IF you want to hold those silver bars/coins until the final bubble phase (say Silver at $150/ounce). By that time, I believe that any silver bars/coins can be sold at a premium instead of discounts.

    If you just want to trade Silver short-term, then I would suggest you just buy SLV or PSLV shares. Trading physicals short-term is just wasting money because you will be buying at a premium but selling back at a discount....

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  55. RJ,

    Those dealers, when buying back Non-American Silver Eagle bars/coins, buy back your silver bars/coins a couple dollars BELOW spot price.

    So you will be paying a premium to buy the Silver bars while selling at a discount back to the dealers.

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  56. I really want to go long term but you guys are kind of talking me out of it now, at least the FM items.

    On a different note, what happens after the bubble phase. So what if silver hits 150 at the peak in a few years? What will the price be in 2020, 2040, etc?

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  57. I think we all should leave some nicknames for Gary regarding his skills at picking bottoms because he is, "The Bottom King!"

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  58. RJ,

    My personal experience is that I bought Silver Bars/Coins from First Majestic at $17.50/ounce (the premium was like $0.75) when spot price was around $16.75. I sold those bars at $39/ounce when Silver spot price was at $41 (during that 4-day silver crash in May).

    So I spent $0.75 on premium while taking discounts of $2.00 when selling back. This costs me $2.75 per ounce.

    So I swear that I will just stick to SLV or PSLV shares for rest of this bull market as I hate to play this huge spread game...

    Anyway, now I simply hold SLV shares.

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  59. RJ
    gary did a report on 10 bubbles. they all pop and dont come back for 20 to 30 years

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  60. RJ,

    Depending on how long you are going to hold. My definition of long-term is 2+ years. LOL

    You can definitely buy Silver from FM, but you just need to make sure that you sell at the final bubble phase. (Not sure if this counts as "long-term"? )

    After the final bubble phase is over, Silver will CRASH to unbelievable low price. For example, Silver hit $50 in 1980 and dropped to $9 and below for 20 years.....

    I will definitely dump all my Silver (shares) at the final bubble phase instead of holding them past that phase.

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  61. Gold reclaimed the 200th MA. Nice and smooth.

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  62. We're three days into a bounce ----and all the gold arrogance is already back --------------- my opinion ---- they're setting up the market for a BIG FALL with this attitude. THATS the odds when they go back to bullish this fast ----- three days and they are throwing mud at the bears. RARE DOES THAT SIGNAL A LOW of significance

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  63. need a new pair of trousers.
    hate it when this happens while i'm just checking in...

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  64. Gold just got dropped right back down to the 200 dma. 1621.

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  65. Just bought back my short DX - 1.5 points in 3 days...thanks Gary for your call

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  66. $USD is trying to find support on its 20ma (Bollinger Band midline).

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  67. Did Treasuries just reversed - TBT chart ?

    If they did for sure money will start pouring into the PM

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  68. And dropped further down... what the heck is going on?

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  69. At ease,

    I was hoping that you could help me understand! I was having lunch and the markets tanked!

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  70. Maybe there is a margin increase is comming. Market always gets wind a day or so before.

    Just a guess.

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  71. risk assets did a u-turn on this news....

    "The European Central Bank said it had injected a record 489.19 billion euros ($641 billion) into eurozone banks via its first-ever three-year refinancing operation"

    which was more printing than the markets expected is the general jist of it i think

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  72. Breakout up and out of the bear flag overnight. Breakdown back into flag this morning. The breakout now looks like a fake.

    If we continue lower here to below about 1605 then this flag will start to look legit and look out below.

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  73. Sophia, sorry, have no idea. I just hope it doesn't hit miners.

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  74. Pretty ugly. Below 1611 is another waterfall.

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  75. Dont you guys who are wondering what is going on have real time charting services? Or are you just using google or yahoo or whatever?

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  76. TZ, couldn't take it at 1610, got out.

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  77. Markets often ride the upper Bollinger Band, then fall to test the Bollinger Band midline (20ma). If the 20ma of $USD holds, short term traders are screwed. But if price falls below the 20ma, markets often fall all the way to the lower Bollinger Band. We'll just have to wait and see.

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  78. This thing felt like a bear flag from the getgo, we should of bounced hard after the waterfall decline but instead we just consolidated in a range.

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  79. looking at the chart the dollar backtested its H&S bottom NL. Penetrated and reversed off the neckline. EURUSD also backtested.

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  80. Bought more gold futures. We should bounce here if we are going to hold I think.

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  81. TZ,

    I am usually on a platform, but away this week, so was hoping for a nice trending market....

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  82. TZ, you think its safe to get back in the water?

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  83. Selling some DX...the bonds didnt move on this one....

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  84. "couldn't take it at 1610, got out"
    the price is $5 from where it was yesterday at 5pm.

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  85. Razvan, yeah, I know, but road it up all night and back down this morning, so jumped out before TZs 1605.

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  86. I was mentioning charting cause you can draw the bear flag I was discussing yesterday.

    If so you see we popped above it overnight and are now back inside - looks like a fakeout at this point.

    Dollar strong again and this flag (and that we broke higher but are not back inside) should raise caution. There could be a good chance now that the flag is real and we head lower to break the bottom and then it will likely get unhappy.

    I just added and bought here cause I often buy quick drops to see if they hold and this one just met my criteria. I don't know I would call things 'safe', but if we are going to continue going up this might be a reasonable point to hold here so I'm taking a shot at a buy (small stop).

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  87. Raz,

    Yes, the price is $5 away, but contrary to gary's comments many other people believe charts mean something. There was some relatively significant chart action overnight. I think we have also broken the 200dma again, but I will defer to WW on the moving average stuff.

    These comments I'm making (and WW usually) are NOT per the "Gary SMT System" so you guys are at your own risk if you start jumping the gun or panicing out of stuff before gary make's his moves. I'm doing my own stuff here (which I combine with gary's calls).

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  88. Guys I see nothing wrong here, this is probably the 830am nonsense that Poly talks about.

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  89. I'm now 3x with my addition and the bounce is folowing through. We want to see this resume going up clearly.

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  90. Dollar looks bullish to me. IH&S

    http://www.screencast.com/t/sxy8nPDsKTyl

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  91. It's probably too early for the dollar to have bottomed.

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  92. Agreed Gary, a 15 days cycle in the USDX is highly unlikely...still holding my shorts on the USDX.

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  93. Yes, agree with Gary and Aaron...selling back 0.60 higher than where I took profit this morning on DX

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  94. i wouldnt read too much into the price action last night. It is not like we had a $200 move up in price and looking for a blow off top.

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  95. Bounce is holding and now gold looks to have a small reverse H&S pattern which would take us back up.

    Dollar weakening again too.

    Good.

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  96. My stop is near the low 30 min ago in gold and I also sold enough of my futures on this bounce to break even if we continue down.

    I now have *zero* risk in this trade and I am NOT sure the low holds. It just seems like a reasonable bet, but clearly it isnt a hard bet to make with a small stop.

    Just a word of caution to people who may be 'buying back' based on my comments. I'm not one to stay around or take a big loss on trades.

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  97. FWIW, the price action overnight is likely not that significant. Gold is not thinking for itself, so to speak.

    All risk assets are following each other, - markets are very thin & the algos are probably doing the work. If you pull up a minute-by-minute chart of Gold & compare with the EUR/USD chart, they are more or less the same. The overnight pop in the Euro dragged everything up with it. Euro got smacked by resistance at 1.32 and dropped straight back down, bringing everything else with it. Range-trading likely for rest of the week. My 2 cents anyway!

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  98. I hear you TZ, that's why I got out, in case we went lower. Watching closely,

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  99. AT EASE,

    Just remember that gary is long, not leveraged, patient, and still positive on the situation.

    From a risk adjusted point of view he is hard to beat. I'm doing a different thing here (but his advice helps me adjust my trades one way or the other.)

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  100. TZ, I am talking about mini gold futures, nothing else.

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  101. $GOLD riding the 13 ma on the 5 min at the moment.

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  102. I think we're simply setting a daily cycle trendline here on gold. I'm buying this aggressively.

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  103. Look on the positive. It will keep sentiment in check while gold climbs the wall of worry.

    And will keep posters (trolls) like Brutless coming back for more punishment.

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  104. Very doubtful to me that SPX would reverse significantly so soon after such a magnificent white candle.

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  105. There is no Gold moving into a bubble phase yet. You are all too early and hopefully not using tight stops coz you will all be stopped out. Gold will correct for a couple of more months at least.

    After 750 days above the 200 day MA, Gold is not going to just trade 3 days below it and that's that. We are still going lower and until we shake out you perma-bullish lot, Gold bubble phase will not be here.

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  106. TZ, buddy, you gotta set looser stops ;)

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  107. As I mentioned a couple days ago, the 200dma shouldn't be a problem this early in the cycle, and we seen that last night when gold ripped right through it as if it weren't there.

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  108. WW what you think? I placed hard stop last night at 1631 and woke up filled.

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  109. How high does gold have to go before the bears agree that the correction was over?

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  110. Movax2,

    I want to see that moment and sell to them :)

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  111. Riley,

    I believe last night was a sell the news event, although I have my reservations about whether or not this daily cycle will fail or not, I dont think its ready to rollover yet. The stock market would have to sell off hard, and im not convinced that that's about to happen. Anything could happen, we all know that...lets see how things go, good to hear you locked in profits at $1631.

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  112. I saw that the dollar index is going up again. Perhaps there won't be a Santa Clause rally.

    Interestingly, the VIX is also down with the stock market down.

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  113. Does anyone else use the 233 hourly SMA as a substitute for the 10 DMA? I find it works really well for GC. That's precisely where we got turned back last night.

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  114. Gary-
    Any thoughts on the fact that SPX intermediate cycle is 11 weeks deep and at this point is extremely left translated, topping in only 3 weeks? Are we running out of time for the market to break the Oct highs? Isn't this the transformation that is necessary to pull bears back into the long side and throw the towel in on short bets? thanks

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  115. SLV has a gap at the open from two days ago. So we may have to experience one more draw down.

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  116. Most of you know that Gary's big on Biotech. Here's an article about Biotech that you may find interesting:

    http://www.johnmauldin.com/outsidethebox/catastrophic-success/

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

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  117. What I like is that silly US Tbond going doing no matter where is the S&P..about time!!

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  119. Although tempting, I'm gonna stick to my plan and not buy this gold pullback until we get decisively above the 200-day and make a backtest that holds.
    Close, but not quite there yet. Till then it's a no-trade for me.

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  120. How to long gold in Euro terms?

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  121. Long Euro ETF
    CurrencyShares Euro Trust FXE
    WisdomTree Dreyfus Euro EU
    iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN ERO



    Double Long Euro ETF
    Ultra Euro ProShares ULE
    Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN URR



    Short Euro ETF
    Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN DRR
    UltraShort Euro ProShares EUO

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  122. 523 EuroZone banks borrowed a huge 489 billion euros ($638 billion) at the central bank’s first offering of three-year cash

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  123. Oa2000,

    Wouldn't do the same if that money was offered to you at 1% rather than the 2-4 % you could get from your peers?

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  124. I can tell you than there is no recession in France...those who are not in the sun celebrating xmas are on the slopes where there is a record of snow falls and hotel occupancy!

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  125. sophia said...
    I can tell you than there is no recession in France...those who are not in the sun celebrating xmas are on the slopes where there is a record of snow falls and hotel occupancy!"

    Sophia,

    STock market is not economy...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75604191621

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  127. Getting long Dax here...nothing changed from this morning 10.15 am London

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  128. DeMark (using the poor man's thinkorswim Sequential study):
    Treasury trade a la ZN futures continues to work even on a down day in the market - 2 more days left. Kevin Depew on his twitter feed actually shows a TLT DAILY TD Sequential 13 SELL a couple of days ago, confirmed by a bearish price flip today - I just don't see it on thinkorswim...sigh
    The VIX is showing a perfected DAILY BUY Setup today - will Santa's sleigh get upended??
    A few stocks that are selling off today were showing DAILY BUY Setup's though - ORCL, VMW, ZAGG, RHT - perhaps some kind-of a bounce in tech land might be forthcoming after today's nastiness!

    Tomorrow is the last day of the DAILY BUY setup upside reaction in GC gold futures. 1616.60 could be qualified on the downside if lower open tomorrow, so we shall see.

    Interesting - KBH reported today - according to Depew, it has confirmed a MONTHLY BUY signal that recorded in July (I show this on my thinkorswim as well), so it should be a strong year for the homebuilders believe it or not!

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  129. Pretty significant SoS numbers on SPY and GLD.

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  130. What's up with the big Sos in spy today?

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  131. Gregory M

    We should find out in a few days.

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  132. Gold bounced right off the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the swing high at 1767.10 to the swing low at 1565.70. The retracement level is at 1642.60. The high of the session was 1643.70.

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  133. End of day thoughts on gold.

    Broke above bearish flag pattern last night, sucked in some buyers, then crashed back down through it today on large volume spikes (blowing out stop levels). Looks like a fakeout at this point.

    Not the best thing to see, but not clearly broken at this point.
    Still...the odds of gold going down from here have now increased in my view. I dare say many other people are eyeing the door as well.

    Going below 1605 takes us out of the flag to the downside. Going below 1590 approx starts putting in lower lows and probably triggers a bunch of stops.

    Gary doesn't so much look at charts or patterns (unless he wants to :-) but he has mentioned flags before so I think there is some relevance.

    I bought the pullback today, but it didn't follow through and stopped me out even.

    Still 1x and looking for danger signs (going up will take care of itself). Will see what gary says tonight also.

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  134. I will likely buy the 1590 area since I think that will hold (if only for a bounce). Should that fail I won't have much confidence left.

    "By the book" would mean waiting until the 1562 low is breeched, but:

    A) I don't want the reduction of profits to that point.

    B) Due to the strong nature of the intermediate decline and expected strength of a rebound *IF* we have indeed bottomed I do not believe that we should return back down to anywhere NEAR the 1562 low. If we start heading for that zone at this point I will perceive a problem well before we get there.

    In other words this low or bounce should not be a case of "we will retest it to within a few bucks and then resume higher". This thing should be climbing well up and away from this low - period.
    (I could be wrong, as always).

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  135. I'm with you on that, TZ.
    Still holding my 0.5x but on the lookout for trouble signs, lol.

    Hope it's just another brick in the wall of worry though...

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  136. Well, in hindsight, I should've placed a hard stop at 1640 as it was an obvious fib-target and a pivot also, but hell I hate using those damn stops...
    Sometimes they have their place though.

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  137. Yeah they work great if one has a working crystal ball :)

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  138. Adding to the party I see tonight that Poly was likewise saying he was considering raising stops above the low at 1562 just like I have already done (he didn't yet).

    The comment was "..I believe price does not belong anywhere near those levels now [the gold 1562 low].." (Hope I can quote you Poly)

    I agree. If we get there and break down anybody with a stop at that point is likely going to get some pretty bad slippage (and also give up unnecessary gains since we really shouldn't come close at this point.)

    We will see what happens as always.

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  139. My stop isn't much above the low (yet) but it isn't *AT* the low cause I don't want to get steamrolled by a few thousand contracts getting dumped on trading screens across the world.

    (My comments are for futures. GDX people have slightly different concerns and situation. And remember I'm only hypthesizing here. All may be well.)

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  140. WW, are you long, if not what are you seeing?

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  141. If gold breaks below the 220dma support (which offered hard resistance on the way up) it will most likely test and possibly find support on the 250dma (currently $1574)and Friday's low.

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  142. The London Trader says the bottom is in:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/20_London_Trader_-_We_are_Witnessing_a_Historic_Bottom_in_Gold.html

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  143. My gold futures system buy still has no stop, and my US $ system went to a sell.

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  144. Based on this morning's action (gold was breaking out and then stopped short again by "news") I think your system is right V. If not, I'm really starting to lose faith in the paper market and will likely convert to physical soon and exit 'the game' as it has become extremely tiresome.....and we all know the ultimate outcome.

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  145. If the recent bottom wasn't historic, it is close enough to the historic bottoms of the past ten years - the 275 and 300dma. As I have always said, I doubt we will see gold dip below the 300dma.

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  146. yes, thank you WW. Your voice is a lighthouse in the fog

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  148. coolkevs, you refer to using a form of Demark system with Think-or-Swim software. I am using TOS, and although I find an indicator called "Demarker Indicator" within the charting studies, I don't find any form of Demark countdown or similar study. Do you count manually? His systems are not available without an expensive charting system that I am aware of. Tom Demark was on Bloomberg about ten days ago and stated the market was going to peak around today.

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  149. The 200dma is about to cross below the SPX head and shoulders neckline, I will begin building my SPX short position again soon, I believe we may see a reversal off the neckline currently around 1257.

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  150. Faber seems to have a pretty good handle on this mess. The most recent porter stansberry letter is also worth a read....basically says what needs to be said but doesn't matter since no one will do anything about it!!

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  151. FYI, Poly is getting close to shorting SPY.

    If you don't know, he has his own little free report he puts out once in awhile, it's pretty cool. You can shoot him an email and get on his list: tradepoly@gmail.com

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  152. WW,

    How many moving averages do you follow?

    I've seen you mention the 75,100, 150,220 and 300 in the last day or so.

    How do you decide which dma is most important at any given time?

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  153. Gotta,

    It depends where we are at in the cycles.

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  154. Hmmmm....looks like I'll be able to pick up more
    Physical and RGLD shares on the cheap tomorrow....

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  155. Looking at a gold weekly, I can see gold pulling back to the historical support of the 75wma if this daily cycle topped today in an extremely left translated manner. Currently at $1493.

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  156. Lately I've been getting this weird feeling that I would be better off daytrading amzn or aapl or cmg or goog or sbux etc....I think my weird feeling is right----for the next couple of months at least

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  157. Gold found support right on the 50 week moving average this week.

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  158. WW I was looking at 1461-67 worst case scenario, not sure if will even attempt short of gold if breaks 1600. Looking more into shorting e-mini in next 5 days. Like what Poly sees.

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  161. DG,

    If you are out there ...

    THANK YOU for posting your "BUY" signal in the subs forum on Monday!

    I bought some SSO at the close on Monday and sold it today for a quick $1K profit (+5%) ... don't want to let profits slip away in this market!

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  162. Silverhound,

    After you hear from JHN can you please drop me an email. Thanks D :)

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  163. Every D-wave has presented a tagging or break of the 0 line of the True Strength Index and a bottoming of my 14,3 stochastics on a weekly chart, we are not there yet.

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  165. The 10 year treasury yield is due for a rally on the weekly chart IMO. Just bounced off the lower BB this week and the bands are narrowing in dramatically on the weekly chart. Given where the MACD is, I would be surprised if it broke down from here. Pretty decent positive divergence. In any event something dramatic is going to happen within the next couple of weeks IMO.

    The ten year yield inflection points are very important for PMs, especially silver, and even more so for mining stocks.

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  166. WW,

    Will you short gold futures if you get stopped out?

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  167. Using CYCLES-

    Is it Impossible for THIS to be a NEW ICL and drop to $1400's, then recover and go to new highs?

    Is it possible to have this really be a 4th dcl, and a 5th? whats the most DAILYS you can have?? I'm trying to figure out a possible drop in gold with T/A , Cycles, and so on.

    I imagine if this was NOT an ICL, but the 4th daily...we could plunge in the 4th to $1450....and Gold ICL could be put in there.

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  168. Alex, I think we normally have 4 and can have up to 5 daily cycles within the intermediate cycle. Possible.

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  169. Greenspansconscience said...

    The ten year yield inflection points are very important for PMs, especially silver, and even more so for mining stocks"

    hope you are right..

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  170. AT EASE

    THAT (IF TRUE) 5 dailys was the answer i was looking for. Thanks .

    I'm sure if it's not correct, someone would correct us.

    I Have been looking for a way to justify (CYCLE_WISE) another drop, because I DIDNT get my SIGNAL that I find at all the deeper lows from 2002 to 2008. SO I would assume we need one more dip.

    I drew 2 charts with possibilities IF THIS were 4th daily. ( I actually used a 4th 5th and 6th, but we dont need 6.

    THX again...I'll post charts

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  171. Alex, what is your signal that you refer to, may I ask?

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  172. CHART #1

    For WW

    I added his 3 favorite moving Avges to cause price to form a H&S :)

    I used 3 dailys, but it can be done with 2 more (the 4th and a 5th)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/D8jS3HDpCU

    also notice our SMALL failed tri-angle, has become a LARGE in tact tri-angle.

    MAYBE with this, I'd get my signal.

    WW-- notice the H&S forms within your moving avges
    ;]

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  173. Alex from Gary's info:
    IC lasts average 20 wks been stretching long lately as gold moves into the next 8 year cycle. DC's run 20 to 30 days also stretching with secular bull.
    20x7=140/25=5.6 averaged out.

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  174. CHART #2

    This would lead to a drop to $1450 area I believe.

    On the GLD, there is a LOT of support in the area marked .

    Again, I used 3 dailys, but if thats not likely, 2 dailys and a sharp fast drop to the real ICL?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/j4wkZTefuNe

    I have noticed that we seem to bottom regularly JULY/AUG and then FEB. 2 Dailys get us there.

    BUT, I am quite invested right now, and I still expected that this COULD BE the ICL , and that we could take off this and next week ( I was hoping!!), but I am posting this because NOW...DAY BY DAY, and I will allow the markets to TELL ME what they want to do!!

    They never listen to me anyways

    I

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  175. AT EASE

    I am still just wondering if this is the ICL.

    Even though they stretch out 20 wks, I dont think we can put in an ICL , and then drop to $1450 (like my second chart) based on things Gary has said recently about people saying we may drop again.

    Chart 1 I believe fits, chart 2 doesnt fit an ICL being in.

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  176. Alex, Would love to see this turn around now and be a fake out, but always a chance this bottoms in Jan/Feb timeframe as originally anticipated. Or it could happen right in between now and Jan/Feb timeframe. Anything possible with the way dollar is behaving.

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  177. Alex,

    The move out of the 06' low is a H&S, like you charted.

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  178. dollar is dropping back down again, while gold moves back up.

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  179. WW,
    You still long gold futures, as I didn't see you get stopped out?

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