The mock portfolio change has been posted to the website. I need as many people as possible to try and login so we can determine if the bandwidth we added yesterday is sufficient.
The miners are just like Lucy in the Charlie Brown comic strip. No matter how many times you think you can count on the miners, they repeatedly jerk the football away at the last minute and you feel like a fool over and over again. :{
Gold is at -20 on the True Strength Index today, and my 14,3,3full stochastics in beginning to turn up, we are very close to a D-wave type bottom. Previous D's read -20 to -27 on the index.
GDX, gold, all PM stuff are making me puke. I have some GDX that I didn't get out in time (tied up at work). Annoying even without leverage. I am going to log out of the broker's site. Very annoying.
Perhaps it is what Intermediate bottom feels like. I remember Gary saying once that Intermediate bottom feels like "end of the world" type freak out.
I mentioned yesterday that if gold were to reverse at $1595 we would see another down day, here we are. I would like to see a final flush to the 275dma around $1553 if the C-wave lower trendline breaks...this would be a nice level to mark a DC and possibly an IC low.
I, Intermediate bottoms are hard to hold onto. Concentrate on sentiment and where we are in the cycles instead of the daily action and it will be easier to hold your position.
No need to fear a little short term pain, especially if one is sized properly. Ignore the next few days, as one would not sell into this weakness anyway. If the bounce leaves a lot to be desired, then on can exit then, but here is NOT an option. :)
Gary thanks! I don't know why I am so affected by it, because it is only a % of a portion of my net worth, whatever the price is, doesn't affect my day to day lives (little debt, living below the means...) Blah, so you are right about human emotions.
Just nibbled a bit here, as I'm already pretty well long and my accounts are in the red. Let's see how the bounce out of these lows does, whenever it starts.
Thanks WW, I'm hanging in there. I am helped by the fact that I bought a dozen USO puts on Tuesday just in time for the big 5% drop yesterday. So I'm riding a nice profit there while watching the gold-bottoming drama unfold.
I'm not in the full 75%, so will be adding on the pullbacks which you are so helpful in pointing out to us.
Yesterday someone mentioned what a great "team effort" there was here on this forum, and I want to add my "huzzah" to that statement. The talent here is amazing! Thanks to all.
That was a crazy time. I remember buying lots of shoes at Bally in Heathrow T1. 50% off and the GBP was around 1.35-1.40. And people were glued to TVs with the US congress debating TARP.
If we do happen to see an 08' type correction in the stock market and it continues to drop as I have been expecting, we will see gold continue to pullback also and this will be a narrow range day before further downside.
SFGiant - I don't know if you are around during the year 2000 dot bomb, I lost some $ (much of my meager savings back then). Then 2008 happened, I lost some also but have recovered all since 2009.
So I want to prevent another lost decade, perhaps that's why I am more emotional. I only have two decades until retirement, don't want to lose those also.
Yes I was. But get this I sold most everything around January of 2000 only to watch thing shoot the moon. I think it was harder not to buy then than buy yesterday. So many of my friends lost bank. I live in silicon valley the epic center for the dot bomb crash. I can remember hearing people cussing in their cubes as they watched stocks crash during the april collapse. Most all did the same thing. Sold at the bottom.
AG is a good company. Not sure why I don't own any. I was looking at it many years ago, but didn't pull the trigger. It was only Canada listed back then.
I wish the "word" for the word verification was a real word because my iPad is always trying to offer a correctly spelled word. Damn superior apple products :-)
I'd appreciate it if somebody could help/tell me where I could view the 5 day sma of the Put/Call Ratio for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF...e.g., like this: http://i.imgur.com/PZ3wh.jpg Cant do it in stockcharts.com it appears.
Of possible note, is that another touch of the giant GDX Megaphone happens to coincide with the average price target for a (now confirmed) downward breakout of GDX's H&S pattern.
Ya this isn't much of a bounce considering the crash we just had. PM stocks are essentially flat, it will look like nothing more than a bear flag if we end the day at these levels.
I was stopped out this morning when we tapped the lower low on gold.
Moving up my stop and adding yesterday was aggressive, and historically would have worked in many cases, but ultimately failed here. (There are historical instances of gold making a slightly lower low the following day...which we have here. So I was taking a risk with what I did).
My original system stop was 1555 approx and that has continued to hold.
I don't want this to turn and go higher we me left behind cause I got aggresive and lost my position so I bought back a smaller position and am using that original stop.
I want to work on conditioning myself to follow my rules as best possible - we all deviate at times.
Clearly the bounce here is non existant so far and we all expected more. We'll see what happens.
I DO have to say that gold is now starting to put in '2008' type indications if we dont' bounce here and stay this low next week as well.
It should also be noted that ECB continues to say printing is not an answer and that they aren't going to do it for now.
Yes, eventually they will print again, but after such direct comments it will be hard to flip on a dime. That means we really could be heading lower into a more 2008 type scenario.
In my mind it really depends on what kind of bounce we get here in the next 5-6 days.
This low zone here on gold should NOT hang out here longer than 2 days. This is the 2nd day (Although keep in mind gold is 24hrs so it means a rally by, say tomorrow morning still is OK).
We need a rally to 1600+ or this is heading lower in my opinion.
Instead of worrying about all these should and shouldn't scenarios why not just twiddle ones thumbs and wait for a swing?
We do have a lower low and a narrower range day, and gold is now in the timing band for a cycle low. So everything is now set up for the bottom to form. Plus sentiment is about as depressed as it has ever gotten.
useless post: still holding my gold long i picked up yesterday morning at the 233 day sma. so far it is holding price pretty well but i'm a little disappointed it hasn't bounced harder.
it may have more to drop but i have little intention on not being long to some degree if price is above the 377 day sma currently at $1477.8.
the US 10 year is now at the top of its 4 month range. still thinking it may make a new high and cause one last rip lower in assets, but i've basically already got my permabull hat on.
coincidentally GDX is now at the bottom of its range as well. i admittedly have gotten a bit frustrated with it as well but buying something at the bottom of a range is usually a good play. might take a slug here around $52.
I'm betting that there's more downside from here. Not a very strong bounce today. Gold isn't technically in the timing band for a DCL yet - tomorrow will be Day 18.
The 300 DMA is around 1533. Also, if you draw out the neckline from last Nov-Jan (resistance) and this summer (support) it hits right around 1525ish. I bet gold will get hit just enough to run everyone's stops at 1535 and then bounce hard into the next intermediate cycle.
today would be day 4 for the "4 day corollary" so tomorrow could bring real pain, if this level hold today. Is this a possibility or am i missing any criteria?
The four day corollary has nothing to do with the magnitude of a decline. It just signals a possible trend change on the first counter trend day after four or more days in the same direction. As long as gold remains negative today then the first up day will likely mark the intermediate bottom.
Most emotional retail traders view large down days with anxiety expecting the large declines to continue.
That's not typically how markets work though. Several large declines in a row tend to scare everyone out all at once and exhaust the selling pressure quickly. This is why I'm confident gold is putting in an intermediate bottom here and not just a daily cycle low.
Big violent moves spike sentiment quickly resulting in running out of sellers sooner rather than later.
MsM and I will be on the road looking for a new abode as we will be officially homeless as of tomorrow but I bought a handful of GDX and will periodically gander at the markets.
"To be sure, gold has always been a volatile trade that can turn on a dime. Unlike a stock, there are no earnings behind the metal. It's only worth as much as what the next guy will pay for it."
Id really like to see the $1535 low breached, I never liked the idea of that being the IC low, and always liked the idea of gold finding its bottom on the 300. Maybe it sparks a shinny new short C-wave for us if the dollar topped.
WW, There is always the chance that the bull market is evolving and correction/consolidations could considerably shorten from what has happened in the past.
Conclusion from Jason at Sentimentrader about Gold Sentiment in a detailed Data Brief just emailed out:
From a sentiment point of view and ignoring any fundamental or technical developments, there isn't really a strong argument to be made for a bottom in Gold.
At Ease, This is almost certainly an intermediate degree bottom.
That should push the yearly cycle low out to the middle of next year instead of January/February. And that low should occur at considerably higher levels than this bottom.
Gary, thank! So this would be an appropriate time to be buying physical or old turkey hold funds for anyone using mutual funds or looking for core positions to hold for a few months to years.
Almost every indicator Jason mentioned was at or below levels that have marked prior intermediate bottoms. Jason is trying to make a comparison to a period of time when gold was in a bear market. obviously gold has not been in a bear market in 11 years.
Trying to compare statistics now to pre-2000 or even pre-2008 is like comparing apples to oranges. The gold bull is now in the second stage of its secular bull market.
Jason is a great statistics guy but not so good at understanding the fundamental and cyclical drivers of bull and bear markets.
People can rest easy knowing the market will let them out here or higher, even if we have to go down first which seems unlikely now that Gary feels we're close to a turn.
The focus should be on not selling too soon once we turn up, IMO.
Well as we all know in ancient Rome fortune tellers called haruspecs would inspect the entrails of sacrificied animals to predict the future.
So just now I took the liberty of dissecting my McDonald's quarterpounder, and in it I found evidence of GLD pushing down lower 1 more day, w/+ divergence on the 30 and 60 min charts.
Don't think I'll get my huge flush, took future As in 1 long, 1668. Hope this is ICL, if is will add later. Only trade futures with small trade capital. Follow Gary for larger chunks.
SB had to buy some auy,gg today as trade, will sell in spring, have long term buy on these as well.
Sophia, I laughed at your cookie munch yesterday, I did the same thing. Just had my cookie much today, gingersnaps and brie cheese. Takes longer to eat and more filling with the cheese, so you don't eat as many. :) Enjoy your cookies!
That`s about what I was like by close yesterday, but today is starting to feel as though we have bottomed. I guess we`ll know for sure in a week or so.....
I'm wondering if you could answer a question I have about futures given your experience with them: what precisely are the counterparty and downside risks in a dislocation scenario for someone who is long a contract? Obviously if your position value drops enough it could wipe out your margin balance, but I'm trying to understand the equivalents scenarios to, say, a broker or the bank behind an ETF going belly up.
I think the two risks are a) the contract seller goes belly up (in which case the exchange is supposed to protect you?) or b) the exchange itself goes belly up (in which case cash not kept/swept into an agency-insured account i.e. SIPC is subject to full loss). Is that right?
Are there any scenarios where you end up owing the full balance of the contract, like you would if you were to lever up on a stock and it went to 0? I suspect margin calls are meant to prevent this scenario but interested how real this risk is in futures vs. other vehicles given the nature of the instrument.
I've been trying to read up on this but I'd really like to confirm my understanding from folks who are in the thick of things. Appreciate any input you could offer!
Folks, I'm new at cycles investing but I've been buying a selling the PMs off and on over the last 32 years. Yeah, I was in the futures market in silver on 1/21/80 when the CFTC changed the rules to sell only to screw the Hunt Bros. out of billions for their member firms.
I love to hear the dolts on CNBC waving their pom-poms for the end of the gold bull market..... and reading the articles from the market poo-bahs that are proclaiming the end of the gold bull. I'm hoping it means we can go back to the stealth bull I jumped into with 85% of my liquid assets in physical gold in late 2008 - early 2009. I loved it that nobody was talking about gold while it moved from lower left to upper right in a quiet, stable, and orderly fashion.
OTOH, I hated it last summer when I couldn't turn on my TV without seeing an ad to buy or sell gold. I hated it even more when gold broke out of its 3-year uptrending channel in late July to make its insane run to $1,925. I knew it would give everything back, I just didn't know when.
So by September 2011 I've made more fiat then I've ever made in my life on any investment..... by a very wide margin. Then I sit and watch tens of thousands of dollars vanishing into the ether every day as gold falls from the mountain top. I know gold has gone parabolic but I'm thinking it will make a final run to $2,000 (parabolas often stop at round numbers) and I'll sell half and sit on the rest. Never got there.
I'm stuck in front of my computer at 3:00AM on 9/26 watching gold drop $120 to $1,533 in overnight trading in Asia and all I can do is watch the damned computer screen. I sold everything on the bounce between $1,650 and $1,680.
Now I've loaded the boat again with GTU and I will be happier than hell if we go back to the stealth bull market I jumped into for the first time in many years back in October 2008.
Let the clowns dance. They have been wrong about gold for 11 years and will continue to be wrong.
Think the most important thing I see in DeMark land is the DAILY BUY setup in the Euro - Bar 8 of 9. Needs a new low of 1.2965 to perfect the signal which seems doable! GC (gold futures) are also on DAILY BUY Bar 8 of 9, and should perfect tomorrow as Bar 8 was already lower than Bars 6 and 7. Remember these are good for 1-4 Days. GLD ETF also showing the same thing. SLV ETF on Monday had a TD Sequential 13 DAILY BUY signal. May be why it's outperforming GLD today?? SI (silver futures) are showing DAILY Bar 12 today and could record tomorrow, so there should be some relief over the next few days.
Ah yes, the old round number trade. I remember gold in july and it seemed like EVERYBODY was calling for 2k. That should have been the first hint. Even the coin guys on home shopping network were saying 2k :-)
I'll mention it again from my view. If you want to copy the Demark stuff (which frankly doesn't make much sense and I've tried to read up on it before), then it would be VERY useful if you could simply state:
Demark says BUY gold TODAY. or SELL gold TODAY.
Not a single thing you post from him in any way seems to ever denote an actual buy or sell. Ever.
I've noticed in the past that $BPGDM will diverge at turning points. We may see it tick up a few days while miners put in their low, which would be welcome.
It seems like Demark created his own language that makes him sound smart but that keeps him from every having to actually state the words BUY NOW or SELL NOW.
I swear it was just last week that GLD was about $168 or so and GDX was about $59. This back and forth action is mentally exhausting. I imagine that it will be even worse if I had borrow money from the broker.
As a long time member & silent follower of the blog, I wonder if I could ask the advice of the group?
I live in Ireland but have an online brokerage account with a US brokerage. I do have a margin a/c, however they don't trade Futures, which I want to do (not in a big way, not blowing up the farm here!) So I signed up with TDAmeritrade instead. However, they tell me that because Irish regulations are so difficult, they don't give margin priviliges to people like me.
My question, particularly to the non-US based members here, is whether there is a brokerage firm out there who will allow Irish or UK-based customers trade Futures?
Any pointers would be gratefully appreciated. Thanks in advance. Kind Regards Donagh
Sophia, Yes, that would be great to plan a get together. Hubby works over here in Ruislip (we live right near the metro line stop). Will be here until mid Feb this trip. Also will be back one last summer next year. My sons are all grown, living back in VA and NY.
gold is now in wave 3 out of 5 for C down, having completed an A, a B and part of C. So we have still some way to go, but my initial target of upper 1300s to low 1400s from months ago is looking pretty perfect.
We have serious divergence on the True Strength Index for the $DXY, the Oct 4th high was at 34, and is currently at 23. My 14,3 full stochastics also reflect this divergence and are rolling over.
Not that this really adds anything of value....but I'm sure some of you remember the song 'Final Countdown'? By none other than EUROPE? Now THAT'S some crazy foreshadowing!
.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletePremium site seems to be working fine with the "mock" test.
ReplyDeleteMy god look at AG this morning!
ReplyDeleteWhipsawing like crazy. This may be a good time to take a morning stroll.
ReplyDeleteStocks have been massively outperforming gold lately....
ReplyDeleteLow 52s for GDX. hmmmm...
ReplyDeleteI'm having my "I hate miners...never buying them again moment
ReplyDeleteI'm with you on that, G.S.Troll.
ReplyDeleteThe miners are just like Lucy in the Charlie Brown comic strip.
No matter how many times you think you can count on the miners, they repeatedly jerk the football away at the last minute and you feel like a fool over and over again. :{
I haven't seen in a while lines in front of currency exchange offices here. And you guess most ppl were buying US dollars
ReplyDeleteGold is at -20 on the True Strength Index today, and my 14,3,3full stochastics in beginning to turn up, we are very close to a D-wave type bottom. Previous D's read -20 to -27 on the index.
ReplyDeleteGDX, gold, all PM stuff are making me puke. I have some GDX that I didn't get out in time (tied up at work). Annoying even without leverage. I am going to log out of the broker's site. Very annoying.
ReplyDeletePerhaps it is what Intermediate bottom feels like. I remember Gary saying once that Intermediate bottom feels like "end of the world" type freak out.
I mentioned yesterday that if gold were to reverse at $1595 we would see another down day, here we are. I would like to see a final flush to the 275dma around $1553 if the C-wave lower trendline breaks...this would be a nice level to mark a DC and possibly an IC low.
ReplyDeleteI,
ReplyDeleteIntermediate bottoms are hard to hold onto. Concentrate on sentiment and where we are in the cycles instead of the daily action and it will be easier to hold your position.
W2,
ReplyDeleteThanks for that.
Here we go people, this is what we been waiting for.
ReplyDeleteAdding to gold long here.
ReplyDeleteWW, good to have you on board this morning. We may need some hand-holding today.
ReplyDeleteJust got back from my stroll; Thinking of going back out for a jog...
ReplyDeleteWW rarely post. LT subscriber. Thanks for your posts. Hope you continue feeling better.
ReplyDeleteCkpc,
ReplyDeleteWe may see some more downside, but the bottom is near. Hang in there.
Added some more GDX calls. This is like November 2008. Fun, fun.
ReplyDeleteAtleast a short term bottom that is.
ReplyDeleteNo need to fear a little short term pain, especially if one is sized properly. Ignore the next few days, as one would not sell into this weakness anyway. If the bounce leaves a lot to be desired, then on can exit then, but here is NOT an option. :)
ReplyDeleteGallo,
ReplyDeleteThank you, appreciate it :)
Gary thanks! I don't know why I am so affected by it, because it is only a % of a portion of my net worth, whatever the price is, doesn't affect my day to day lives (little debt, living below the means...) Blah, so you are right about human emotions.
ReplyDeleteWW - thank you too.
Just nibbled a bit here, as I'm already pretty well long and my accounts are in the red. Let's see how the bounce out of these lows does, whenever it starts.
ReplyDeleteThis is the type of bounce I like to see out of a DCL, lets see if this is our bottom.
ReplyDeleteWith gold making a lower low today, we could get a swing low tommorow.
ReplyDeleteFrank said...
ReplyDeleteAdded some more GDX calls. This is like November 2008. "
Depend on UUP...
Possible narrow range day with a slightly lower low? That would make a swing very manageable.
ReplyDeleteI'm considering buying a contract for the hell of it but I'd like to get deeper in the timing band first. Today is only Day 17, no?
Thanks WW, I'm hanging in there.
ReplyDeleteI am helped by the fact that I bought a dozen USO puts on Tuesday just in time for the big 5% drop yesterday. So I'm riding a nice profit there while watching the gold-bottoming drama unfold.
I'm not in the full 75%, so will be adding on the pullbacks which you are so helpful in pointing out to us.
Yesterday someone mentioned what a great "team effort" there was here on this forum, and I want to add my "huzzah" to that statement. The talent here is amazing!
Thanks to all.
Intelblue2000
ReplyDeleteYes I'm with you. Why do emotions play such a big role. I mean it's only money :-)
Buying UUP in Nov 2008 was not a good idea.
ReplyDeleteThat was a crazy time. I remember buying lots of shoes at Bally in Heathrow T1. 50% off and the GBP was around 1.35-1.40. And people were glued to TVs with the US congress debating TARP.
If we do happen to see an 08' type correction in the stock market and it continues to drop as I have been expecting, we will see gold continue to pullback also and this will be a narrow range day before further downside.
ReplyDeleteSFGiant - I don't know if you are around during the year 2000 dot bomb, I lost some $ (much of my meager savings back then). Then 2008 happened, I lost some also but have recovered all since 2009.
ReplyDeleteSo I want to prevent another lost decade, perhaps that's why I am more emotional. I only have two decades until retirement, don't want to lose those also.
Ken
ReplyDeleteAG is on fire. Someone backed up the truck this morning...
Heavy volume on AG as well.
ReplyDeleteYes I was. But get this I sold most everything around January of 2000 only to watch thing shoot the moon. I think it was harder not to buy then than buy yesterday. So many of my friends lost bank. I live in silicon valley the epic center for the dot bomb crash. I can remember hearing people cussing in their cubes as they watched stocks crash during the april collapse. Most all did the same thing. Sold at the bottom.
ReplyDeleteAG is a good company. Not sure why I don't own any. I was looking at it many years ago, but didn't pull the trigger. It was only Canada listed back then.
ReplyDeleteIf I'm not mistaken, AG is one of Sprott Asset Mgmt's top 3 positions outside of his physical metal trusts.
ReplyDeleteGary
ReplyDeleteI wish the "word" for the word verification was a real word because my iPad is always trying to offer a correctly spelled word. Damn superior apple products :-)
I'd appreciate it if somebody could help/tell me where I could view the 5 day sma of the Put/Call Ratio for the SPDR Gold Trust ETF...e.g., like this: http://i.imgur.com/PZ3wh.jpg
ReplyDeleteCant do it in stockcharts.com it appears.
Anyone?...
Of possible note, is that another touch of the giant GDX Megaphone happens to coincide with the average price target for a (now confirmed) downward breakout of GDX's H&S pattern.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p69484750259&a=251084182
Danno,
ReplyDeleteI was actually just looking at that, fitting if we are to see gold pullback to the 300dma.
No follow through on this bounce out of a new low, gold is still under pressure.
ReplyDeleteYa this isn't much of a bounce considering the crash we just had. PM stocks are essentially flat, it will look like nothing more than a bear flag if we end the day at these levels.
ReplyDeleteDoes anybody know what that huge price spike is on GLD at 12;19? Is that some vindictive market maker ruining someones otherwise bad day or what?
ReplyDeleteAG is one of two stocks being added to the GDX. That's why it's up so much this morning.
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeleteCan you give me a date where gold held the 300dma (or it was 'significant' as per your discussions) 2006 or later?
I was stopped out this morning when we tapped the lower low on gold.
ReplyDeleteMoving up my stop and adding yesterday was aggressive, and historically would have worked in many cases, but ultimately failed here. (There are historical instances of gold making a slightly lower low the following day...which we have here. So I was taking a risk with what I did).
My original system stop was 1555 approx and that has continued to hold.
I don't want this to turn and go higher we me left behind cause I got aggresive and lost my position so I bought back a smaller position and am using that original stop.
I want to work on conditioning myself to follow my rules as best possible - we all deviate at times.
Clearly the bounce here is non existant so far and we all expected more. We'll see what happens.
I DO have to say that gold is now starting to put in '2008' type indications if we dont' bounce here and stay this low next week as well.
It should also be noted that ECB continues to say printing is not an answer and that they aren't going to do it for now.
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204026804577099932307341996.html
Yes, eventually they will print again, but after such direct comments it will be hard to flip on a dime. That means we really could be heading lower into a more 2008 type scenario.
In my mind it really depends on what kind of bounce we get here in the next 5-6 days.
TZ,
ReplyDelete6/27/07...day one of a new daily and intermediate cycle and the first day of the 07' C-wave advance.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteI agree that it is possible we may be heading in to an 08' type correction, as i mentioned earlier.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteThe 04' and 05' C-waves were also born on the 300dma.
The 03' D-wave bottomed on the 300dma.
ReplyDeleteThis low zone here on gold should NOT hang out here longer than 2 days. This is the 2nd day (Although keep in mind gold is 24hrs so it means a rally by, say tomorrow morning still is OK).
ReplyDeleteWe need a rally to 1600+ or this is heading lower in my opinion.
TZ,
ReplyDeleteIf you look at the 08' correction, gold breached the 300dma then back tested and crawled it for 8 days or so before breaking down again.
Instead of worrying about all these should and shouldn't scenarios why not just twiddle ones thumbs and wait for a swing?
ReplyDeleteWe do have a lower low and a narrower range day, and gold is now in the timing band for a cycle low. So everything is now set up for the bottom to form. Plus sentiment is about as depressed as it has ever gotten.
All we need now is a little patience.
useless post: still holding my gold long i picked up yesterday morning at the 233 day sma. so far it is holding price pretty well but i'm a little disappointed it hasn't bounced harder.
ReplyDeleteit may have more to drop but i have little intention on not being long to some degree if price is above the 377 day sma currently at $1477.8.
the US 10 year is now at the top of its 4 month range. still thinking it may make a new high and cause one last rip lower in assets, but i've basically already got my permabull hat on.
coincidentally GDX is now at the bottom of its range as well. i admittedly have gotten a bit frustrated with it as well but buying something at the bottom of a range is usually a good play. might take a slug here around $52.
g'day
Gary or anyone,
ReplyDeleteIf the US $ stays in the red, will that signal the 4 day trend reversal rule?
No not a 4 day corollary on the dollar index.
ReplyDeleteI'm betting that there's more downside from here. Not a very strong bounce today. Gold isn't technically in the timing band for a DCL yet - tomorrow will be Day 18.
ReplyDeleteThe 300 DMA is around 1533. Also, if you draw out the neckline from last Nov-Jan (resistance) and this summer (support) it hits right around 1525ish. I bet gold will get hit just enough to run everyone's stops at 1535 and then bounce hard into the next intermediate cycle.
I should add that a marginal break of 1535 will make our cycle interpretation much easier, as a 24 week int cycle would be confirmed.
ReplyDeletetoday would be day 4 for the "4 day corollary" so tomorrow could bring real pain, if this level hold today. Is this a possibility or am i missing any criteria?
ReplyDeleteHarry, good points
ReplyDeletewow...quiet a few gold bull market over articles coming out...can this be true?
ReplyDeleteThe four day corollary has nothing to do with the magnitude of a decline. It just signals a possible trend change on the first counter trend day after four or more days in the same direction. As long as gold remains negative today then the first up day will likely mark the intermediate bottom.
ReplyDeleteMost emotional retail traders view large down days with anxiety expecting the large declines to continue.
ReplyDeleteThat's not typically how markets work though. Several large declines in a row tend to scare everyone out all at once and exhaust the selling pressure quickly. This is why I'm confident gold is putting in an intermediate bottom here and not just a daily cycle low.
Big violent moves spike sentiment quickly resulting in running out of sellers sooner rather than later.
GDX looks like it has a nice floor today....I venture a guess it ventures higher to the close
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteYour labeling this an 11 week IC if gold remains above the $1535 handle?
Yahoo Finance front page says "Gold sheds Can't Lose status"..
ReplyDeleteHeadlines like this one almost always signal a reversal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-sheds-cant-lose-status-165243054.html
Hmm... have HTML tags been disabled?
ReplyDeleteMsM and I will be on the road looking for a new abode as we will be officially homeless as of tomorrow but I bought a handful of GDX and will periodically gander at the markets.
"To be sure, gold has always been a volatile trade that can turn on a dime. Unlike a stock, there are no earnings behind the metal. It's only worth as much as what the next guy will pay for it."
ReplyDeleteThanks, CNBC, for your analysis.
Yes unfortunately no one at CNBC is smart enough to pull up a ten year chart a recognize it for what it is...a secular bull market.
ReplyDeleteOf course that's a good thing. The longer the hoi poi remain in denial the better it is for the bull.
ReplyDeleteId really like to see the $1535 low breached, I never liked the idea of that being the IC low, and always liked the idea of gold finding its bottom on the 300. Maybe it sparks a shinny new short C-wave for us if the dollar topped.
ReplyDeleteGary, is this an early IC that was expected Jan/Feb 2012 timeframe?
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeleteThere is always the chance that the bull market is evolving and correction/consolidations could considerably shorten from what has happened in the past.
Conclusion from Jason at Sentimentrader about Gold Sentiment in a detailed Data Brief just emailed out:
ReplyDeleteFrom a sentiment point of view and ignoring any fundamental or technical developments, there isn't really a strong argument to be made for a bottom in Gold.
At Ease,
ReplyDeleteThis is almost certainly an intermediate degree bottom.
That should push the yearly cycle low out to the middle of next year instead of January/February. And that low should occur at considerably higher levels than this bottom.
Mr. M.,
ReplyDeleteI saw that headline this morning, also. In addition, the talking heads on CNBC have been touting the "gold is going to $1400" all morning.
(ha-ha! my verification sign-in word is "shize". Kind of an appropriate expression for the type of action we're having today!)
Gary, thank!
ReplyDeleteSo this would be an appropriate time to be buying physical or old turkey hold funds for anyone using mutual funds or looking for core positions to hold for a few months to years.
Almost every indicator Jason mentioned was at or below levels that have marked prior intermediate bottoms. Jason is trying to make a comparison to a period of time when gold was in a bear market. obviously gold has not been in a bear market in 11 years.
ReplyDeleteTrying to compare statistics now to pre-2000 or even pre-2008 is like comparing apples to oranges. The gold bull is now in the second stage of its secular bull market.
Jason is a great statistics guy but not so good at understanding the fundamental and cyclical drivers of bull and bear markets.
Gary, my post about Jason dissapeared, do you know why?
ReplyDeleteI am going to start my pack of cookies very soon if Gold stays below 1570 too long!
ReplyDeleteGold is being pressured somewhat by oil moving down into its cycle bottom. Oil is also in the timing band for a turn, so it's only a matter of time.
ReplyDeleteWe may, or may not have entered at the exact bottom, but I do think we got "close enough".
Time to just sit and twiddle our thumbs for a while.
People can rest easy knowing the market will let them out here or higher, even if we have to go down first which seems unlikely now that Gary feels we're close to a turn.
ReplyDeleteThe focus should be on not selling too soon once we turn up, IMO.
Well as we all know in ancient Rome fortune tellers called haruspecs would inspect the entrails of sacrificied animals to predict the future.
ReplyDeleteSo just now I took the liberty of dissecting my McDonald's quarterpounder, and in it I found evidence of GLD pushing down lower 1 more day, w/+ divergence on the 30 and 60 min charts.
thats very profound Bill! Moo
ReplyDeleteHey gang,
ReplyDeleteAnyone see Freeport Mac FCX on buying on weakness?
Looking at the weekly 3 and 7 day MA says it may be heading up.
Possible 2 day H&S on gold here. If we go lower it project, magically, to almost exactly $1535.
ReplyDeleteDon't think I'll get my huge flush, took future As in 1 long, 1668. Hope this is ICL, if is will add later. Only trade futures with small trade capital. Follow Gary for larger chunks.
ReplyDeleteSB had to buy some auy,gg today as trade, will sell in spring, have long term buy on these as well.
Sophia, I laughed at your cookie munch yesterday, I did the same thing.
ReplyDeleteJust had my cookie much today, gingersnaps and brie cheese. Takes longer to eat and more filling with the cheese, so you don't eat as many. :) Enjoy your cookies!
Eamonn, moooo~!
ReplyDeleteI also took the liberty of dissecting a salmon, and found bear flagging.
Next, I laid open a chicken burrito, and it said to wait for a swing low.
Bill,
ReplyDeleteI think the lead in the tuna is taking a toll.........
Hey, 86d4life, a little drool and double-vision are perfectly normal. Mooo~.
ReplyDeleteGary, Could we have some hand holding on the subscriber's blog, too, please? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThat`s about what I was like by close yesterday, but today is starting to feel as though we have bottomed. I guess we`ll know for sure in a week or so.....
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ReplyDeleteriley/TZ/WW:
ReplyDeleteI'm wondering if you could answer a question I have about futures given your experience with them: what precisely are the counterparty and downside risks in a dislocation scenario for someone who is long a contract? Obviously if your position value drops enough it could wipe out your margin balance, but I'm trying to understand the equivalents scenarios to, say, a broker or the bank behind an ETF going belly up.
I think the two risks are a) the contract seller goes belly up (in which case the exchange is supposed to protect you?) or b) the exchange itself goes belly up (in which case cash not kept/swept into an agency-insured account i.e. SIPC is subject to full loss). Is that right?
Are there any scenarios where you end up owing the full balance of the contract, like you would if you were to lever up on a stock and it went to 0? I suspect margin calls are meant to prevent this scenario but interested how real this risk is in futures vs. other vehicles given the nature of the instrument.
I've been trying to read up on this but I'd really like to confirm my understanding from folks who are in the thick of things. Appreciate any input you could offer!
Folks, I'm new at cycles investing but I've been buying a selling the PMs off and on over the last 32 years. Yeah, I was in the futures market in silver on 1/21/80 when the CFTC changed the rules to sell only to screw the Hunt Bros. out of billions for their member firms.
ReplyDeleteI love to hear the dolts on CNBC waving their pom-poms for the end of the gold bull market..... and reading the articles from the market poo-bahs that are proclaiming the end of the gold bull. I'm hoping it means we can go back to the stealth bull I jumped into with 85% of my liquid assets in physical gold in late 2008 - early 2009. I loved it that nobody was talking about gold while it moved from lower left to upper right in a quiet, stable, and orderly fashion.
OTOH, I hated it last summer when I couldn't turn on my TV without seeing an ad to buy or sell gold. I hated it even more when gold broke out of its 3-year uptrending channel in late July to make its insane run to $1,925. I knew it would give everything back, I just didn't know when.
So by September 2011 I've made more fiat then I've ever made in my life on any investment..... by a very wide margin. Then I sit and watch tens of thousands of dollars vanishing into the ether every day as gold falls from the mountain top. I know gold has gone parabolic but I'm thinking it will make a final run to $2,000 (parabolas often stop at round numbers) and I'll sell half and sit on the rest. Never got there.
I'm stuck in front of my computer at 3:00AM on 9/26 watching gold drop $120 to $1,533 in overnight trading in Asia and all I can do is watch the damned computer screen. I sold everything on the bounce between $1,650 and $1,680.
Now I've loaded the boat again with GTU and I will be happier than hell if we go back to the stealth bull market I jumped into for the first time in many years back in October 2008.
Let the clowns dance. They have been wrong about gold for 11 years and will continue to be wrong.
I wonder if the miners bullish % will be in the single digits today.
ReplyDeleteThink the most important thing I see in DeMark land is the DAILY BUY setup in the Euro - Bar 8 of 9. Needs a new low of 1.2965 to perfect the signal which seems doable!
ReplyDeleteGC (gold futures) are also on DAILY BUY Bar 8 of 9, and should perfect tomorrow as Bar 8 was already lower than Bars 6 and 7. Remember these are good for 1-4 Days. GLD ETF also showing the same thing.
SLV ETF on Monday had a TD Sequential 13 DAILY BUY signal. May be why it's outperforming GLD today?? SI (silver futures) are showing DAILY Bar 12 today and could record tomorrow, so there should be some relief over the next few days.
SF,
ReplyDeleteLooking at that, you know we have to be close.
Unknown
ReplyDeleteAh yes, the old round number trade. I remember gold in july and it seemed like EVERYBODY was calling for 2k. That should have been the first hint. Even the coin guys on home shopping network were saying 2k :-)
Oil significantly diverges from the CRB index which is just inches from breaking lower than October closings. Something big in Oil is coming...IMO
ReplyDeleteGLD will trade tomorrow below 150.00
ReplyDeleteCOOKEVS,
ReplyDeleteI'll mention it again from my view.
If you want to copy the Demark stuff (which frankly doesn't make much sense and I've tried to read up on it before), then it would be VERY useful if you could simply state:
Demark says BUY gold TODAY.
or SELL gold TODAY.
Not a single thing you post from him in any way seems to ever denote an actual buy or sell. Ever.
SF:
ReplyDeleteI've noticed in the past that $BPGDM will diverge at turning points. We may see it tick up a few days while miners put in their low, which would be welcome.
Gold is on 'bar 8 of 9' and should 'perfect tomorrow' but is good for '1-4 days'
ReplyDelete???? WTF???
Is there a buy or sell in ANY of this stuff. If you know what it is can you just add it to the end of the commentary and tell me?
It seems like Demark created his own language that makes him sound smart but that keeps him from every having to actually state the words BUY NOW or SELL NOW.
ReplyDeleteYeah, yeah, he get's press and is on TV.
So does Prechter.
TZ(8155)
ReplyDelete???WTF???...
what ETF are you talking about ???
I swear it was just last week that GLD was about $168 or so and GDX was about $59. This back and forth action is mentally exhausting. I imagine that it will be even worse if I had borrow money from the broker.
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteYou crack me up!
I don't understand Bar 6 out of 9 either, I thought that I was dumb....
at ease,
I swapped cookies for pasta, I need carbohydrate to survive the stress!
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHello everyone,
ReplyDeleteAs a long time member & silent follower of the blog, I wonder if I could ask the advice of the group?
I live in Ireland but have an online brokerage account with a US brokerage. I do have a margin a/c, however they don't trade Futures, which I want to do (not in a big way, not blowing up the farm here!) So I signed up with TDAmeritrade instead. However, they tell me that because Irish regulations are so difficult, they don't give margin priviliges to people like me.
My question, particularly to the non-US based members here, is whether there is a brokerage firm out there who will allow Irish or UK-based customers trade Futures?
Any pointers would be gratefully appreciated. Thanks in advance.
Kind Regards
Donagh
Donagh,
ReplyDeleteCall Saxobank....they are very good for UK residents, so I guess that for Irish ones, they will be helpful
Sophia, Had that for dinner. LOL
ReplyDeleteThis weather just calls for comfort foods. :)
At ease,
ReplyDeleteIs one of your teenager kid studying in the UK? We should grab a cupmof coffee if you are close to London!
Sophia,
ReplyDeleteYes, that would be great to plan a get together. Hubby works over here in Ruislip (we live right near the metro line stop). Will be here until mid Feb this trip. Also will be back one last summer next year. My sons are all grown, living back in VA and NY.
Many thanks Sophia, will give them a call tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteGreat report tonight, now were on the same page..lol :)
HOLY COW!
ReplyDeleteIf you're not a sub, it's time to subscribe. Gary just issued a dynamite report!
Good trading,
Le Fou
Locked and loaded for bear, following the lead bull.... YEEHAW!
ReplyDeleteSomething is cooking in Gold.. I have rarely seen this action after hours.
ReplyDeleteIvan,
ReplyDeleteThis action in the futures since the open is typical of cycle bottoms, when there are no sellers left gold grinds higher right out of the gate.
A break above the 65dma will give us a swing low, today it halted and reversed gold as I mentioned it would.
ReplyDeletegold is now in wave 3 out of 5 for C down, having completed an A, a B and part of C. So we have still some way to go, but my initial target of upper 1300s to low 1400s from months ago is looking pretty perfect.
ReplyDeleteWW,
ReplyDeletethat 5 min chart is a classi bull market chart - smooth and relaxed going up in small steps :)
We have serious divergence on the True Strength Index for the $DXY, the Oct 4th high was at 34, and is currently at 23. My 14,3 full stochastics also reflect this divergence and are rolling over.
ReplyDeleteNot that this really adds anything of value....but I'm sure some of you remember the song 'Final Countdown'? By none other than EUROPE? Now THAT'S some crazy foreshadowing!
ReplyDeleteNEW POST
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