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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

PORTFOLIO CHANGE

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186 comments:

  1. REPOST from previous blog entry:

    Gary,

    Have you ever looked into MESA Sine Wave cycles? They usually align quite nicely with your cycle counts especially if you use a study that dynamically calculates the dominant cycle length. It printed daily cycle resistance (possible cycle top) today on /CL and /ES.

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  2. Looks like gold is headed towards the 300dma, currently at $1545. Next support is the 275dma, 06' bottom. Being gold rolled over much sooner than expected into a failed DC and its still early in this cycle for a bottom, we may see gold test historical support at the 75 week moving average at the $1495 level. I will look to cover my gold short from $1594 at the 275dma around $1560, and see what type of bounce we get.

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  3. WW,So you think 150 want hold, was tempted to take profits around 1572. probably hang on now and see if get to the 300.

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  4. Do any Canadians have USD ETF suggestions aside from HDU? I'm not in love with the spreads.

    I'm all ears on any way to play it and would love some advice.

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  5. Riley,

    Do you mean the 275dma? We may see the 275dma hold, depends on how long it takes to get there. If we get there in a day or so and bottom, this would be a very short cycle. With an extreme left translated gold cycle and the dollar pushing higher I think its unlikely gold bottoms on the 275dma, as it did in 06'.

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  6. Haha all the bulls on Gold are getting rolled. Even the miners are getting rolled.

    Look at Silver, so so so many bears and we are still going lower. Even a crash can happen from these negative sentiment levels, like we recently had in Cocoa.

    Cannot wait for stop losses to be triggered and a wash out bottom to be put in. Lots of pain for Gold bulls who thought a parabolic was in. Not yet boys and girls... only when you least expect it!

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  7. Tiho,

    Thanks for your concern for us gold bulls. Not to worry though we are mostly out of precious metals :-)

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. Gold Miners leave major investors (Soros, Paulson, Einhorn, Klarman) In the Dust

    online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204296804577124731087588216.html

    All they had to do, like anybody else, is bring up a free chart that takes 3 seconds and draw a line that continues to slope down and to the right (with the latest turndown in the last few weeks):

    www.barchart.com/cache/14a1613f87d72e8311b366a584278817.png

    One more "*THIS TIME* will be the time it rallies" group crushed on the rocks.

    Hope is not a trading strategy. Let the market SHOW you it is time to buy the miners by actually rallying significantly and for an extended move.

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  10. Of course anyone that follows that strategy will buy at a short term top and have to weather a drawdown.

    The single best system I have ever found to make money is entering at cycle bottoms or as close to that as I can get. Then if the trade goes against me I exit with a small profit or small loss.

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  11. Ricky, I have the same issue with HDU. Thinly traded. I'm going to pass for the most part and wait for the coming PM setup.

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  12. "...Bulls figured that gold miners had more upside than gold, partly because mining stocks outperformed during past bull markets for the metal. ..."

    Yeah? Well the price is WRONG, Bob.

    This isn't the 70's. Costs are much higher and ore grades in the ground are much MUCH lower. In the 70's they were practically scooping stuff off the top of a pastures and melting it down. Now new mines are in tiny fractions of ore concentrations and older mines are MILES underground with very difficult operations.

    The easy mining go-go days of the 70's may not return. "Peak gold (mining)".

    Oh...and the world financial system is collapsing this time unlike the 70's. In a functional collapse you might want to have 'straight metal' as opposed to some extended operation that take years to squeeze any value of out of some low concentration dirt - while your taxes and peal oil go up and while the govt of the resident country eyes your profits.

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  13. Clearly, like any mania however, when the final phase comes and the clown masses are buying anything regardless of value we will likely see anything with 'mine' or 'gold' or 'silver' in the name rise - just like dot com.

    But it doesn't mean it will happen soon. And it doesn't mean it will represent value at that time. When the masses are grabbing for anything, the smart money may still be in straight metal.

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  14. "But....but...GDX outpeformed from November 1 to November 8 !! I saw it. It was 2x. So there!"

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  15. TZ on a crusade against miner lovers!
    haha awesome!

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  16. Yes give it a break. We've heard it a hundred times and none of it is going to prevent anyone from entering miners at the next cycle low because they will vastly outperform gold during the next upswing.

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  17. TZ said:

    "Hope is not a trading strategy. Let the market SHOW you it is time to buy the miners by actually rallying significantly and for an extended move."

    There is no need for one to wait for an extended rally in miners before buying, when gold bottoms its time to buy.

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  18. aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

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  19. Sorry if too much gary. The post was due to the new WSJ story today so I thought I was adding new info.

    When some of the best hedge fund guys on wall street get hurt bad I thought it was worth a revisit.

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  20. Cant believe I'm seeing gold cracking like this. Glad I'm in cash. Thank you Gary & SMTer's

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  21. "..none of it is going to prevent anyone from entering miners.."

    And your and my comments won't prevent anybody from buying options either

    :-)

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  22. Eamonn,

    Historical bottom coming my friend.

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  23. SB

    Days like this I'm thinking of you. I'm glad you are the master of risk tolerance. We will be getting the buying opportunity for miners soon. I can't imagine what the miners bullish % will bottom at but it should be single digits.

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  24. $HUI megaphone trend line within spitting distance.

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  25. Gold Stochastics and True Strength Index almost at weekly levels that mark D-wave bottoms. This should be the last daily cycle... and buying opportunity of the decade, unless we are to see an 08' type correction.

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  26. WOW.. we'll get the juniors at $20 :)

    Who have thought that might be possible just two months ago.

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  27. I imagine Ben Bernanke wont like this dollar strength/Euro weakness....hmmmm I wonder if he has a plan for this

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  28. long into new year $TNA, $TQQQ, may shorts DIE

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  29. Yeah Danno, nearly there. My last buy in that area I was literally short of breath. I will definitely buy there again. Hasn't failed me yet.

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  30. When 1562 gets breached, that's going to trigger a ton of stops! Looks like it just a matter of time.

    WW

    What MA held for gold during the 08 collapse? Would it be equilivant to 1475?

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  31. Eamonn,

    Bernanke is not going to do anything with the market at these levels.

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  32. SF,

    Gold bottomed on the 175 Week MA in 08'.

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  33. The 275dma (06' bottom) was just breached.

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  34. golds going to bottom in the next 7days , getting ready to load up. Dollar move looks like a headfake to me.

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  35. WW, do you believe there will be large gains in the next Intermediate Cycle in gold?

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  36. gary, this is iluvpms here, just wanted you to know that i am still emtionally stable even with the drawdown in my accounts lol... if anything, im buying more GPR... nice sale today.

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  37. Gold is tracking well to my original idea of a failed weekly cycle into a 8yr half cycle, like 2004 and of course 2008. Was seeing this setup 2 months ago at $1,800.
    So I doubt gold is done here and possibly not done after this IC too.

    This is setting up to be the mother of all bear traps though. It is being set for the final 2 year run to the top of the bull.

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  38. You might want to wait another week or two as that would put you into the timing band for the next cycle low.

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  39. Gary,

    With your view on dollar as of this morning, does it mean that all what you talked about on the weekend report is under review? Thanks for your help, this market is disconcerting

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  40. The dollar has always been the key to every trade. As long as it continues up we will continue to see pressure on assets.

    Sentiment is extreme on the dollar right now. That would normally indicate limited upside. I'll cover more in tonight's report about what today's rally means.

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  41. From a TA standpoint this move by the dollar is for real. Huge h&s bottom followed by a backtest of the NL is bullish. Cycles are confirming the short daily cycle too. Eurusd chart looks ugly. Huge h&s top with a nl backtest = bear. Long EUO and UUP calls.

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  42. SF Giants Fan,

    Thanks for the thoughts. I'm doing fine and can handle quite a bit more pain before I have to throw in the towel. Although I did not think the move lower in miners was sustainable, it was always a possibility and I'll stick with the plan unless stopped out.

    The HUI is now below my first big purchase area in early June, so I'm sitting tight and not adding into thin holiday trade. It's possible the HUI could even retrace 50% of the entire bull move out of '08, which would put it around 400. That's not a prediction, but a possibility nonetheless.

    The only thing that has changed in my thinking is that I might be inclined to trim some into the next intermediate rally if it is not sharp enough. I say this because the moving averages are now trending lower on the daily, not stuff that bull markets are made of. If they rally sharply enough and can turn the MA's back higher (or sideways at least), I'll continue on the same path as I've been.

    I'd expect more of this type action before things improve, at least through the holidays, so haven't had the need to sit by the computer and watch every tick. If stopped out I'll take a 12% hit to my brokerage assets, but nothing to do until then unless it's some adding into the new year.

    Good luck! :)

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  43. Interesting to see the ags shake off the dollar strength. Corn and wheat have been on a tear the last 2 weeks.

    Not sure what to make of it, but it's possible we see other commods take the driver's seat in the next leg up on the $CRB.

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  44. This dollar breakout is real, but I'm only seeing it breaking out from a small pennant so the upside could be limited.

    I do see Wav's inverse H&S too, but I also see an inverse H&S on $SPX. Both have questionable left shoulders. Which one will win? That's the 64 million dollar question.

    If we see another MACD crossover in UUP way up high above the zero line, UUP could have a nice 2-3 day pop. After that I'd might be defensive.

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  45. Eamonn,

    Not if we are about to see an 08' type correction, there will be more pain in the next IC. We have to see how things are looking when this DC bottoms. It all depends what the dollar is doing...I do think its possible that we see a rush into gold again if the stock market is collapsing, as we seen in July/September.

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  46. As I said earlier, technically we are close to a normal D-wave bottom. A break lower of the levels Im looking at that mark typical D-wave bottoms only occured during 08'. If I see those levels breached I will be looking at the 08' levels.

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  47. As of right now the 275dma (06' bottom) is holding. The 06' bottom was off a 13 day left translated daily cycle, we are at day 9 and on the 275dma.

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  48. As I have always said, I want to see gold at the 300dma, I want to see how it holds up.

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  49. Poly,

    I just want to commend you my friend for your work, incredible to say the least :)

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  50. SB,

    Retracement of 38.2% from the 2008 bottom on HUI seems fairly common. That would put us at around $450 (if we get there). Adding a little at that level would probably be decent bet.

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  51. I can definitely see gold leaving many people behind. When it bottoms many bulls turned bears are going to have no clue.

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  52. Covered my gold short here at the 275dma, As I mentioned earlier I would just in case the 275dma (06' bottom) holds.

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  53. if POLY's call is correct, silver downside may halt just under $27, and the previous low will hold, which tranlates to a %50 correction bull to date

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  54. You may recall that last week I said gold needed to rally to 1635-1640 by friday's close in order to not trigger my '2008 crash/deflation scenario' indication.

    It didn't rally to that point and we continue lower as we all see today (I didn't bet it was going lower or 'know' it, I'm only saying we are now triggering 2008 type technical indications and it is time to be alert).

    I will defer to gary and doc and poly as to the cycles read of things, but I have now switched to a more stand back and watch mode.

    I'm not attempting to buy declines anymore (for now) and I suspect we really are starting to selloff back down into a 2008 type liquidation or contraction event.

    The Fed isn't directly printing, neither is ECB (yet! of course...they will, but you can go broke in this game from bad timing.).

    Clearly the ECB can't directly print until there is screaming pain in EU (and likely till the german's capitulate...if they will.)

    We ourselves are heading into 2012 elections and the Fed doesn't seem to have the political cover to do another QE (as gary has noted).

    If they bail anything else out again, the "Occupy X" movement will just grow louder and alternate govt candidates will rise in power. "They" don't want that-the current stooge candidates are already paid for and are behaving properly.

    In the Fed's consideration is 'third time is the charm' for many events. People ignore the first time something happens, dismiss the second, but the third time something it clearly becomes a PATTERN for even the dumbest of couch potatoes. If the fed prints AGAIN it becomes hard to waive it off.

    So we sit and wait here to see where this goes. The gold bull resumes eventually we just have to let it play out until the next leg up.

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  55. We are still in 9th day of this extremely left translated DC. IMO we'll see plenty of fall still.

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  56. SLV volume just average, so no real selling, they're just keeping the pressure to trigger stop losses

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  57. At this point I think we are headed toward one of those lows where we go 'whoa!'. Sorta a 'we will know it when we see it' type thing. (Only because we are mostly out whereas people who are long from months ago are heading towards a capitulation point which won't feel the same to them).

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  59. TZ,

    Gold still has not broken below historical support levels to consider an 08' type correction is in effect yet. The last intermediate cycle low has not even been breached yet. Gold is still exibiting normal D-wave behavior.

    Ivan,

    I wouldnt put too much weight on this DC being Extreme LT, the last DC of the 06' D-wave was left translated and lasted only 13 days. The following first A-wave DC chops around and the second starts to pick up steam.

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  60. If $1535 is broken then the next Fibonacci retracement comes in at the 2010 consolidation zone around $1400.

    I really doubt gold will drop any lower than that and it could occur as an overnight sell off that is recovered before the open.

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  61. Hey WW, how's it going my crazy friend?

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  62. Gary,

    Thanks for your answer...was busy on something and didnt see your answer until now

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  63. Miyagi,

    Good, where ya been? What did you buy a new house already and start ripping it apart!

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  64. Hah! We've been in a hotel since the 16th, well, many hotels. Looking for a house; a NEW one because my wife says "NO MORE RENOS!!!" but we will see.
    How's your renos coming? Almost done?

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  65. Agreed. We haven't broken 1535 yet and frankly this could be an excellent buy point right in here (a retest of 1535).

    I'm not tying myself to any particular position and I'm also trying to remember that at 'the low' the market will be causing the most number of people to be looking lower - including me and maybe now.

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  66. Miyagi,

    Little bit of lighting to do still, decided to add some stair case lighting so I dont fall down the stairs in the dark, with 3 way switches...last minute thing. Started sheetrocking the second floor, so still some work to do, going to have a crew come in and finish the sheet rock. Taking way to long to gut, completely re wire & light, and sheet rock an entire 3
    floor home alone, especially when having heart attacks in between.

    You need to find a house soon or your going to spend any reno money on hotels!

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  67. WW,
    That`s a lot of house for one person that is for sure.
    I don't like to spend all this money on hotels but what can you do? There are not too many nice homes on the market right now and Disneyland is a little too busy at this time. Maybe I'll go to New York City, I hear it's cheap around New Year...

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  68. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  69. Miyagi,

    Buy a tent, some sleeping bags, and heated socks..lol

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  70. Where is Slumdog?.. We need you for the exact bottom on gold!

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  71. WW, did you see we are still dropping, getting back in yet?

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  72. We are setting up for something huge, as many people are noting. Look at the LT bond charts. Yields have crashed to ridiculous levels and havent rallied for more than a few days in ages.

    The bond market really is the mother of all bubbles. When that market turns, and it will, it will lead very quickly to hyperinflation. It's nothing but a game of musical chairs right now.

    Not sure what the triggering event is going to be though. My original thesis was that Bernanke would not and could not stop monetizing for risk of a deflationary collapse. A new QE could definitley getnthe ball rolling on a bond collapse, but only Benny and thenInkjets knows when and from what levels that will be.

    Think of the power Bernanke has. He literally controls the short term nominal value of everything in the world. That is godlike and clearly is being gamed by anyone privvy to his decisions in advance. That game can continue for as long as people have faith in the currency.

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  73. Everyone is saying the LTRO (long-term refinancing operation) is not working. But Euro sovereign rates are plunging - the markets have spoken. Today, the Bank of Italy said the average yield on its €9 billion ($11.8 billion) six-month offering was 3.251%, half the 6.504% rate it had to pay at the equivalent auction just last month. In an auction of two-year bills, the yield fell to 4.853% from 7.814%t last month. Tomorrow they sell long-term debt. Look for a sudden change in the received wisdom on Wall Street to: "Oh, the LTRO has kicked the can down the road for three years! Time to focus on Japan, China and - dare we say it - the U.S."

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  74. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  75. Farm Girl,

    I am 100% with you! The ECB is doing something huge, unreckongized yet, but it is a game changer....Forget about the 10y US at 2% .... The Euro zone is going to get a super boost and with the Euro/USD going down, this will help the EURO economy!

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  76. at ease,

    No...im watching now. Im not short or plan on going long at the moment.

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  77. sophia - it may take until the next LTRO in February before people catch on. I don't know if the euro goes up or down on this - my guess is first up, then down. But gold/PMs should rally like a shot.

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  78. The carry trade with the 6 month bills makes sense, especially when the rate was 6%.
    You wont see these flow into the longer dated bonds though.

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  79. Aaron,

    Yup, right there almost...gold blows through the 300dma I think the $1535 low is going to be taken out also and as I mentioned earlier we will probably see gold test the 75wma.

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  80. the money flooding into /ZN is has and continues to point to new record low yields in the 10 year. that remains my signal to glue the bull hat onto my scalp.

    seems likely gold bottoms before then though. i know everyone has their pet MAs (scratching my head at using the 275 and 300 alongside each other though ww!) but if you're into fibonacci numbers the 377 is now at /gc 1487, which is my target entry since the 233 appears to be failing at 1594.

    GDX i am still looking for the $47-48 level (1597 fib prime daily sma)

    anyway, just some more nonsense to read. big picture it seems to me that bernanke isn't going to be doing much until there's a new crisis. if stocks close the year weak like this i think that will be sooner rather than later.

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  81. WW just noticed my mistake, I've used 250ma for yrs, so mis typed 150. starting to use more ma's on different time frames, hard to blog sometimes while watching charts. Thanks, been short since friday. Was gonna take porfits, but liked strong action so holding but I put hard stops in once in good profit, especailly on shorts, been whipsawed enough in past.

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  82. SLV Silver weekly Chart, may have found a support Level around $25-26 Level:

    http://screencast.com/t/WhVBdODUH6

    Goodluck to All ,i will post a GLD GOLD Chart later

    Gann360

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  83. St D,

    I have no pets, they stink. I only use MA's that are historically effective with gold...ie. I consider the 150dma historically effective being that throughout this entire C-wave gold put in a ICL several times directly on the 150dma.

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  84. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  85. Oil Short?????????I shorted Oil today as I think this Iran stuff will blow over without any big problem and that will knock Oil down hard.Good Luck

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  86. Why oil ? It has just started a big move up and is less vulnerable to get smashed from the strong USD.

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  87. Gary,

    Could we still be in our previous gold cycle. If so then we can bottom anytime as oppose to two weeks from now.


    James

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  88. from JS ... believe him this time?! he tenss to express his bullishness just before the slaughter take place ... yes ... i been tracking him for a decade

    "Let me tell you that when this year is over, the only hands left holding physical gold and gold shares are the strongest hands on the planet. Every possible weak hand has been shaken out. Every person with emotions even latently capable of overwhelming their intellect, overwhelming their judgement, will have already been overwhelmed. The people who are left are people who will never give up their positions.” — James Sinclair

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  89. Any chance the bottom in gold will be just below 1400 ?

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  90. John,

    JS said we had had on Dec 15th historic low. Obviously we had not. Otherwise yes - fundamentally nothing changed.

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  91. I've just noticed that gold broke the 50 sma on the weekly. How bad is this going to get?

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  92. James hopefully into the 1300's so we can load up and make enough to buy everyone in the family rolex's

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  93. james r,
    I think we got a clear daily cycle low 8 days ago.

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  94. As much as I'd love to see gold take a huge beating, I think we need to keep on our toes in case gold puts in a bottom much sooner than everyone thinks (few days to a week?).

    This daily cycle is shaping up a lot like the one that started on Jun. 14. That cycle failed 9 days in and just as everyone got all psyched for a huge decline, gold put in both a daily cycle and intermediate cycle bottom 5 days later and proceeded with an explosive rally that a lot of folks had a hard time chasing.

    I don't have the data but I suspect COT and sentiment data are more bullish now than they were at the July low. The $BPGDM has made a lower low, only time lower was on its way to 0 during the crisis.

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  95. Ver,

    I agree,

    "I can definitely see gold leaving many people behind. When it bottoms many bulls turned bears are going to have no clue."

    December 28, 2011 10:26 AM

    We are close technically.

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  96. ver,

    in late June the miners clearly had paved the path for gold a few days earlier. Now miners are in a deep hole. I'd rather wait to see a spike in the USD index.

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  97. Ivan,

    Gold and miners took off together in June, miners traded sideways for a couple days and waited for gold to bottom before moving higher with gold...on june 25th miners began to pullback hard while gold just traded sideways before taking off again.

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  98. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  99. William,

    are we close to a bottom?

    It does not feel like a bottom when it is too easy to buy.

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  100. Hey All

    I posted this chart on the last thread and mentioned that a shake out could drop it to the $48ish area...BUT as of today, this chart has completed my initial target.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/jP3QfaqX

    and this one Completed too

    http://www.screencast.com/t/JOcRzdeb

    The FULL STOCHASTIC 60 has been hit only at MAJOR lows throughout 2001 to now...this area is finally being hit.

    Gold is currently at $1554...I would LOVE to see $1500 overnight or tomorrow.

    Please remember this is just the T/A...follow GARY /POLY/DOC for CYCLES( tho they seem to vary).

    DID GANN360 really say $1245 on this drop, or did I misunderstand?? : ]

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  101. James,

    Technically we are close to a bottom, the True Strength Index and Stochastics on a weekly are near bottom levels, not there just yet, but close...and they should be in place when gold is near historical support at the 75 week MA ($1495). It's easy to buy because we are prepared for this. Many think the bull is dead or are expecting gold to bleed to death. Although its possible gold is headed into an 08' type correction, right now we have to stay focused on the typical corrective levels we have seen during the last 10+ years. with 08' being an exception. Until those levels are breached I will presume were not going to see an 08' type correction.

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  102. WW I"d like it if we would get some consolidation around the lows before we take off. Gives me more faith with that sidways action on bottoms to place my mental stops. The quick take off reversals harder for me.

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  103. Gold bottomed today $5 short of the 300dma, and the C-wave lower trendline held...we have to completely clear our minds of further downside and expect the bottom to be put in any day now, even if it isn't. This is one of the great advantages of being a gold futures trader, I could care less if gold is going up or down another $500, there is no emotion here, and I look to profit either way.

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  104. Riley,

    I would like to see a steady grind higher out of the bottom, as long as I get in near the bottom im not concerned whether gold consolidates or not after it moves above my entry.

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  105. W W

    I just read your post under mine, and was about to share this final chart before leaving...matches what you said about $1495.

    I am looking at what I would call a "confluence of support" at $1500 area GOLD

    http://www.screencast.com/t/csEP92mXjo

    IF we drop further, the back up plan for me is this one that I posted on the last thread

    http://www.screencast.com/t/B4spLxyFV

    Gotta have a back up plan ; ]

    Cya all 2morrow

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  106. Miyagi -san,


    What is $TRIN please?

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  107. Alex,

    Thank you brother for those charts :) Always keeping the soldiers heavy with ammo.

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  108. Sorry for the Typo, To many numbers,in my Head.

    GLD Gold ETF , Has Support at 149/150 ish Level,i am Also getting a Vibration in Price at $145 ish. if GLD Does find Support at Rising Trendline Level & 618% Retrace Level, We Should / Could get a Pop,

    I do have a Little turn date for this week , and another (late Jan /Early Feb) i'm not sure if this Time Pivot calls for a Tradable low Here,this week and Possibly a Retest of some kind( or Maybe Lower towards the End of JAN.)

    Anyways, Careful out there, lots of Mixed Signals,

    http://screencast.com/t/fwVuDJCma4vw

    Gann360

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  109. GANN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    THAT IS PERFECT : ]
    I saw your chart with 1250 and I thought you were calling for a complete retrace. THX for re posting.

    W W

    When I'm able to keep up with your posts, you are really active here, and I'm sure many have loved to learn your ways. Its quick and more short term at times, but ALSO good value long term.

    Nice work also.

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  110. Fascinating charts, guys. I admire you from afar; my skills lie elsewhere.

    Happy to report that my PM core today is only 1% in the red (all jr. Cdn. miners purchased around the last recent lows).

    Thanks to Gary and the likes of you guys I am not desperate or about to capitulate. Au contraire!Funny how a time like this feels so much different when you did not ride it all the way down. *whew*

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  111. sophia;
    TRIN in a big nutshell.
    You can put in $TRIN on stockcharts.com (untick the Log scale in options) and you will see it is very rare that after a big spike like today it continues the next day; most often leads to reversal or at the very least a mild form of negative day.

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  112. Also, I did not check before, the $NYDEC is at 2405 today, generally a turnaround follows numbers like that.
    But of course, none of this is set in stone, markets can puke 200 points tomorrow for all I know.

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  113. I always assume that a cycle will run a normal duration. If that is so then gold should still have another 10 or more trading days before bottoming. However much of that could be spent trading sideways with a final push down right at the end of the cycle. It might even come as an overnight dip that gets recovered before the open.

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  114. GARY, DOC, or POLY,

    Is it true that no intermediate low has gone below the previous except for the 2008 crash zone?

    What about during this hypothetical 8yr 'half cycle' low that some of you are talking about in 2004 and presumably now also?

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  115. TZ,

    Over the last 10+ years only in 04' and 08'.

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  116. Can you tell me the dates of the 2 or three INT lows in 2004 zone that broke lower?

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  118. TZ,

    3/3/04 ICL and 5/10/04 IC lower low.

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  119. Is there some chart link that shows the int cycles marked for this 2003, 2004, 2005 zone?

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  120. That was a unique D-wave, gold C-wave topped then dipped into an intermediate decline, retraced back up to test the highs and double topped .50 higher... before dipping into a failed IC.

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  121. TZ,

    Give me your email I will send you mine from my platform.

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  123. Miyagi-sensei,

    Thanks !
    Hope the hunt for a house is not too nerve racking. All the best for 2012

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  124. TZ, have you seen this?

    http://thetsitrader.blogspot.com/2011/12/golds-secular-bull-cycles-and-its-abcd.html

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  126. Blake,

    I had that page bookmarked but didn't look at it yet. There is what I was looking for with the weekly cycles.

    WW,

    Thanks for the offer but that page shows it.

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  127. Blake, Thanks for sharing that link.

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  128. MrMyagi,
    Hope the house hunt falls into place for you. Enjoy the holiday and once everyone gets back to work things will all click into place. Happy and Prosperous of New Years!

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  129. seems like WW's 300dma marker has given way...

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  130. what a blood bath. never thought I'd see it in gold

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  131. That last one came really close...

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  132. The dollar is still rallying.

    Which is the only 'glitch' I see in the idea that 2012 might be great for gold. That idea assumes the problems in Europe will be solved. I really don't see that happening soon. I see problems in Europe escalating essentially throughout most, if not all, of 2012.

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  133. Yep, very close to breaking that last low. :)

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  134. Will just be really glad when Gary says, ALL IN! I sure as heck wouldn't know when watching this action how it plays out.

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  135. ...at ease,

    let's not bite more than we can chew.
    I sure bet we'll have a NEW POST here veeeeeeeeeeery soon :)

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  136. Look out below. Where it stops knowbody knows...

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  137. Just means more money to be made on the upside. :)

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  138. Where's WW? Would like to know the next ma resistance

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  139. wow...3000 contracts got triggered as 1535 was taken out...painful.

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  140. Actually between the break and the low of 1525, there was a total of 4500-ish.

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  141. Eamonn, I think he was looking at 1495 next.

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  142. This price action is no big shock.

    A chart about the gold triangle breakout. The pullback up after the downward breakout did not travel nearly as far as thought possible, but the rest is the same.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p71062551266&a=241643000

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  143. And now, we have everyone looking for 1400... safe to say, we wont go down that far!

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  144. Having ridden many a D waves down over the years….this one feels much better watching 100% from the cheap seats. Not losing money is worth just as much as making it. Thanks again Gary!

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  145. These price movements seem to be happening rather quickly (gold/dollar).

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  147. If today is a violent selloff in metals then I would expect a bottom any day now.

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  148. Based on average downward breakouts from symmetrical triangles, 1523 is about where gold shorts would want to exit their positions. But average total decline still comes in around 1408 (that is -17% from the breakout price). It's just there could be a lot of whipsawing between now and then so shorts would want to take their profits now. This is my limited understanding of symmetrical triangles. I'm sure cycles overrides this but FWIW.

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  149. TZ,
    In answer to your earlier question Only one other cycle in 04 broke an previous intermediate low except during the 8 year bottom.

    I really see no evidence anywhere for a "half 8 year" cycle low. This is just a D-wave decline and a yearly cycle low. That combination is driving a very severe decline.

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  150. I can't believe we finally got to this
    D-wave, finally!!! It will be so good to put it behind us. :)

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  151. What we need is a crack in the US Treasury market. There is not a day not even an hour without someone on TV mentioning that the US Bonds are the safe heaven. That market is OVERCROWDED big big time...

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  152. Interesting, the exit point for shorts on the $HUI's clearly defined Head & Shoulders pattern just so happens to be the megaphone bottom. Funny these 'coincidences'. I would expect a substantial bounce (but I also expect to find matching socks). After that I'm not so sure. We could still see a downward breakout from the megaphone later. That would be pretty horrific. Probably too early to speculate about that.

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  153. Yet anyone who has called the end of the bond market bull has ended up being proven wrong, or going broke!

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  154. IvanG,

    I guess that the US Treasury market is the next shoe to drop....The markets in 2011 are getting everybody fried, one by one...First the FX guys,then the equity guys, then the PM guys, so next will be the Bonds boys

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  155. A 2008 style - 34% correction would lead to $1268 for gold

    http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/weekly-commodity-reports/precious-metals-monitor/3330-precious-metals-monitor-history-says-gold-could-fall-to-1268.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=WeeklyUpdate

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  156. Dan, that guy is comparing this to 2008, which is mistake. The snp disagrees with him.

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  157. Eamonn,

    Yup the $10 bounce directly off the 300dma was bent into a perfect arch on a 5 minute as the weight of the world came down on gold, so I shorted into it. The next next historical support is the 75 week moving average at $1495. All my technical indicators are almost at D-wave bottoms.

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  158. Gold is due for another yearly cycle low, I believe that's what were seeing now. Markets go up and markets go DOWN. People, don't even pay attention to the price of gold, it's just a number, when it's time to pull the trigger do it without the slightest hesitation, because buying opportunities like we are about to get don't come around often.

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  159. ww, are you expecting for 1495 to pull the trigger?, BTW congrat for your lately calls.

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  160. William,

    so you are saying that support at 1400 will be the bottom , right?

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  161. W2,

    Thanks for your constant updates! And well done! But when do you sleep ? Even Alex cannot follow you! LOL and best wishes to you and family

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  162. I'm more than comfortable buying more physical today at these prices. I don't need to catch the exact bottom and I'm not always available anyway. I believe when it turns, it will be quick and many will be caught thinking/waiting for it to go ever lower. Many forces at work here. End of year, thin trading is the perfect time to sink the metals, especially when you have to raise the debt ceiling again and again.

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  163. Felipe,

    I have to see how things look when we get there, as I mentioned I was going to do with the 300dma...I got the strong bounce directly off the 300dma I expected, but as I watched it began to rollover, the weakness was still evident. I need to see follow through, typically I will place a buy trigger directly on a MA and nail the exact bottom, but if confirmation of that bottom fails I bail, so I will do the same on the 75 week moving average. Whether or not that bottom holds is to be seen, as the 300dma failed after a $10 bounce the 75wma may fail also. My main focus is getting in at the bottom, if its short term so be it, if its a permanent bottom thats even better.

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  164. All chart bars are not created equal. Particularly those occurring on holiday weeks like now with desks manned by young bucks with little staying power and on a mission (stops 1535). Coupled with the current big quarterly Fund redemption and re-balancing period (note that end September dive in GC was later found to be heavily Fund-redemption related).

    Re public holidays: at least one-third and up to half of this year's major GC turns have occurred by stealth in the sleepy trading around/just after public holidays.

    This camp is on alert for the post-New Year turn and a possible pretty standard 27-week or so IC (rather than the short last 13-week cycle), or, alternatively the 2 short (A. 13; B. 14-15) back-to-back investor cycles mentioned by Poly characteristic of post-parabolic trading.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/MichaelHulk/folders/Default/media/d3858805-8ebd-441f-92b8-6286235280bc

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