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Monday, March 28, 2011

2B REVERSAL

We need a comment cleaner so I thought I would post the 2b reversal on the XLE for you short term traders. Hint: very tight stop with high risk reward ratio.

Explanation of the 2b reversal is in the terminology document for subscribers.

1,053 comments:

  1. I think everyone is trying to login to the nightly report at once. It seems to have temporarily crashed the site.

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  2. Gary, This is the error message I am getting when trying to access the premium subscriber site.

    PHP has encountered an Access Violation at 7D611952

    Hope this helps clear up the problem.

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  3. okay, that explains it. I'm not able to get it, will wait for a while and try again.

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  4. Damn Gary, how many new subs have you added! :)

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  5. Redwine,

    Sorry, I misunderstood you. I thought your statement "all fiats eventually go to zero" was your way of saying fiats suck, we shouldn't be using them, the dollar's going to zero, buy a farm and start using barter. You were just making a statement, sorry I misunderstood the intent of your statement.

    You did get me thinking though. I'm thinking why does a fiat go to zero, whether it takes 20 years or 200? Seems to me it's because the politicians promise more than they can deliver without spending more than they take in. So they print. And then the next question is "why do the politicians promise more than the government's income can pay for?" And the answer is because the VOTERS tell them that's what they want.

    So it's not fiat currencies fault that they get printed into oblivion, but rather the politicians and ultimately the voters. Seems like the only fix is to either write into the Constitution that federal expenses cannot exceed tax revenues, or force the issue by using a currency backed by something of value.

    By the way, I doubt I have more faith in the dollar than you do. It's just that living in the US, I haven't figured out a way to not use dollars.

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  6. FWIW gold backing has never prevented a country or empire from debasing the currency.

    Human nature will always find a way to try to get something for nothing...and it will always lead to a big mess.

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  7. Poly,

    Your avatar looks like a Texas sharpshooter got hold of it.

    fyi: a Texas sharpshooter is one who fires at the broad side of a barn, walks over and circles the target.

    We may have a few on this blog.

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  8. Well, that's interesting Gary.

    Can you give me an example of a currency that was backed by gold that got debased and as a result that country experienced inflation? And did that currency eventually go to zero?

    How would that work, that a currency that's backed by gold would get debased? Wouldn't users of the currency be able to go to their government and exchange the currency for gold? And if so, wouldn't that keep inflation in check?

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  9. heck the US did it in the 30's they confiscated gold and arbitrarily revalued it.

    Rome used actual gold and silver coins. A currency doesn't get much sounder that that.

    When Rome couldn't pay it's debt it started clipping the coins.

    In the 70's Nixon decided to close the gold window.

    Backing a currency with gold has never stopped human nature, at least not for very long :)

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  10. "FWIW gold backing has never prevented a country or empire from debasing the currency.

    Human nature will always find a way to try to get something for nothing...and it will always lead to a big mess."


    Which is why we don't need a gold standard currency system, we need to use gold AS money, which would only come about via a free market in money. In other words, we would quit quoting prices in currency terms (dollar, euro, real, etc.) and instead use actual units of weight of gold.

    See Rothbards "What Has Government Done To Our Money?":

    http://mises.org/money.asp

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  11. Probably too unwieldy for everyday use.

    I suspect we will just have to deal with these giant messes about every 80-100 years or at least until human nature changes.

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  12. PC, the proof is in the pudding. Every major currency today that was around 100 years ago was backed by a gold standard. One by one the politicians took the gold backing away, sometimes in one fell swoop, other times via incremental steps.

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  13. So the only way around the devaluing problem, again, would be to write it into the Constitution.

    Doesn't make sense that if you're going to have a currency backed by gold that the government is allowed to redefine how many units of the currency it takes to buy an ounce of gold.

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  14. Gary, using gold as money doesn't mean carrying around physical gold. The gold could be kept on deposit in a bank (warehouse), and the receipts used in commerce. Electronic transfer of gold ownership would be possible also. James Turk's GoldMoney is an excellent example.

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  15. still not able to get into the premium site.

    Has anyone else been able to?

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  16. Since when has the constitution prevented human nature from running it's course :)

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  17. PC, absolutely right. Which is why legal tender laws should be trashed and people be allowed to determine what they want to use for money. Get the government out of the money business. Everybody believes that there is some great voodoo behind money that requires that government experts manage it.

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  18. I was able to access the premium site.

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  19. Yeah, enough holes to go ahead and pick any target(s)

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  20. Nope- can't get in either.

    And, unfortunately, writing 'no devaluation' into the constitution wouldn't do much- the constitution has been little more than silly putty since judicial activism breathed life into the idea of a 'living, breathing' constitution.

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  21. Tudor,
    I think your probably kidding yourself if you think politicians are going to voluntarily back the currency. They like to spend money too much. Buying votes and such.

    In theory gold as money or currency backed by gold is a great idea but in reality it will probably never happen. So we continue to suffer through these calamities from time to time.

    Heck we put Glass Steagal in place to prevent exactly what happened in 08/09. Human nature short circuited that one also.

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  22. I can't get in the back door either. Just give it an hour and try again.

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  23. premium site is still not working... getting message PHP has encountered an Access Violation at 7D611952

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  24. Gary, I think a gold standard is somewhat likely in the future, probably during my lifetime, but I'm fully aware that the repeal of legal tender laws are unlikely, as much as I'd like to see that happen.

    This is broadening the scope of the discussion we're having, but the points you make about human nature and politicians are exactly why I believe democracy is a fundamentally flawed system. That has lead me to advocate anarcho-capitalism as the best way for a society to be ordered. (But I realize it THAT won't happen.)

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  25. Unfortunately I think we are forever going to be stuck with human nature no matter what system we use.

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  26. Tudor--
    Murray Rothbard coined that term, didn't he?

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  27. Gary, yes. So we erect our defenses, educate ourselves, plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

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  28. Daniel, if you're talking about "anarcho-capitalism" - yes.

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  29. Tudor-
    Thought so! I am a big fan of Mises and all things related to Austrian Economics! www.mises.org

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  30. PC,
    Thinking on the balanced budget in the constitution; wasn`t that kind of the idea with the debt ceiling too and that`s barely an inconvenience anymore.

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  31. Daniel,

    The LvMI is an incredible organization. If you haven't already, you owe it to yourself to dig into their audiobook and podcast library.

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  32. A balanced budget is a red herring. Congress could tax everybody in the private sector 90% and have a balanced budget. That would not negate the evil inherent in a system based on forcibly taking from some and giving it to others.

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  33. Tudor!
    Indeed! I have purchased a few of their hardbacks! :))

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  34. gary
    how tight of a stop could we use?
    the high for today was 79.4
    would 80 be good or to tight?

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  35. XLE probably shouldn't exceed today's high if the 2b is going to pan out.

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  36. gary
    ok im going to let mom take a shot at this one =)

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  37. gary
    i dont want to buy it on the open do i? maybe give it a hr and work a little bit of a price?

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  38. Okay, I must be retarded because I can't find the 2b reversal explanation in the terminology document. Is it part of the 1-2-3 pattern?

    Can someone be so kind as to help out the needy?

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  39. Tudor,

    What would protect the interests of individuals such as ourselves from corporations or wealthy individuals under your system?

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  40. Jeff,
    Buy what?

    Rob,
    yes look in the 1-2-3 reversal section for the explanation of a 2b.

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  41. I guess you could enter at any point. I think DG entered at the close.

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  42. David,

    Answer - the absence of government itself. Corporations and wealthy individuals engage in regulatory capture, in which they use their wealth and influence to harm us.

    Think of Goldman Sach's influence at the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, and at the highest levels of governments all over the world. As long as there is government, there will be people who seek to influence it at the expense of others. The idea is to take away the gun (the state) they use against us.

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  43. Sorry if already posted but this is an informative post by minyanville on lease rate logistics:

    http://www.minyanville.com/investing/articles/silver-silver-price-comex-comex-account/3/28/2011/id/33607

    I wondered how they work and how it was possible to have a negative lease rate....

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  44. Gary,

    I know our stops are based on gold. Now my question is if that's hit, get out of everything right away or see what my AGQ etc. was at that level previously and then use that price as my stop? I hope that makes sense.

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  45. Ryan, I called my broker and had them walk me through putting in sell stop loss market orders for my options and other stocks (ie AGQ, SIL) using stop market triggers if GLD hit the trigger price Gary gave us. Easier than guessing what the others would be.
    Call them in the morning before the market opens.

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  46. Tudor,

    It seems you're talking about delivering us from one form of oligarchy into the hands of another.

    In a nation without any laws or regulations whatsoever, the likes of Goldman (or whoever had a private militia) could simply seize assets at will -- your home, your money, etc.

    As it stands we are already living under a form of oligarchy, where as you point out the Goldmans of the world buy and sell politicians and write legislation at will. But it's hard to imagine how removing what few constraints remain will suddenly turn them into benevolent dictators. More likely it would turn the US into something like Russia.

    It may be that we're headed for anarchocapitalusm as it is, but I doubt that it will feel like a utopia unless you're Lloyd Blankfein.

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  47. David,

    Except that the government that the oligarchs have so firmly in their control is the very organization that prevents us from defending ourselves against the...oligarchs. Government is based on the "legitimate" use of non-defensive force. You can't fight back and defend yourself when they say someone else is allowed to rob you.

    A life of freedom and liberty is not a riskless endeavor. There's the chance that stuff might happen that you don't like. But I'd rather live free in a dangerous world than securely under the thumb of the paternal state.

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  48. at ease,

    I don't even know if I can do that at my broker. But I don't know if I want to, I'll just it has a mental stop and see how the action plays out before selling out. I guess that kind of answers my question, if our stop in gold gets hit, sell out of everything at market price at the time not what the previous price of AGQ etc. was.

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  49. I don't for a minute think the oligarchs would become benevolent. That's why I don't want the government around to let them become dictators!

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  50. Tudor,

    I certainly like the part where they don't control the government anymore.

    But it seems a little idealistic to think that they wouldn't then use their vast resources to simply expropriate wealth from the rest of us.

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  51. The Italian bond auction today went well. Should put pressure on the dollar.



    James

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  52. http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/passionate-questions-on-gold-and-silver-11629?FIELD9=1

    Gary, do you have any comments? Especially regarding sentiment.

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  53. Dollar just broke 76.0.

    May get our swing high today

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  54. good to see that dollar under 76.

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  55. Gold looks seriously weak chartwise, not sure how relevant the dollar is right now provided it doesn't completely crater; gold is largely in lock step with oil. Watch oil.

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  56. "Oil prices extended losses below $104 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as traders eyed gains by Libyan rebels seeking to topple Moammar Gadhafi and restart crude exports from the OPEC nation."

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  57. Gary, you mentioned the 'exhaustion' candles in the NDX but you did mention the possible exhaustion candles in Gold, XAU & HUI when they occurred last week. Were you looking through the rose colored lenses of hope?

    Just asking, not needling.

    Also, have you possibly overlooked a coil forming on the silver chart? If so, your coil theory says the first move will be reversed. So it is possibly looking like silver will break down before making new highs?

    Low volume selloff in gold/silver overnight and a stronger $USD.

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  58. I meant to say you did 'not' mention possible (at least short term) exhaustion candles in gold/xau/hui last week.

    It is increasingly looking like that is the case.

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  59. Gary

    Just curious. In the weekend report I think we said we were going to let Monday and Tuesday go by then put our stops in. Is that still the case? Or did I read it wrong?

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  60. An essay from Joseph Sobran, The Reluctant Anarchist, provides a great explanation of anarchism. There are many misconceptions he attempts to clear up. For anyone interested:

    http://www.sobran.com/reluctant.shtml

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  61. I've occasionally had a login problem, as well, but have found that simply attempting the login a second time works fine.

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  62. "I certainly like the part where they don't control the government anymore.

    But it seems a little idealistic to think that they wouldn't then use their vast resources to simply expropriate wealth from the rest of us."

    David, the history of the state is one in which the government enables the very people you fear to take advantage of you. They are already doing what you contend they would do in an anarchistic system. But because the state has the monopoly use of force, if you fight back sufficiently, the state will kill you. Democracy is a system built upon force and coercian. Not exactly a civilized way to construct a society.

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  63. Tudor,

    Don't let David fool you, he loves the current system and why not? It's been good to him as he's a multi-millionaire, and has even stated he supports a strong US presence in the Middle East (and now we're in North Africa via Libya). American resources securing Israel's backyard, without Israel spending a dime! :)

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  64. As far as metals and miners, I'll be adding into today's morning weakness.

    Bull market still on.

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  65. My focus is on adding NUGT, with some more SVM (ex-dividend today), and possibly some SIL.

    NUGT is new and only trades around 100,000 shares/day, so size accordingly.

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  66. I won't pull the plug before stops take me out, but one concern I have is that silver is stretched 50%+ above it's 200 day MA.

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  67. Gary or others - Question on Gold stops:
    I am still confused on which pricing for gold to use for a stop. The Stockcharts.com "$Gold" only gets updated at the end of the day so can't use that intraday (I don't want to wait overnight to reduce positions if the stop is violated). Should we be using the spot gold price (Kitco) or the continuous futures contract "/GC" that some of us track on Thinkorswim? -- those prices can vary widely some days.

    Also, I assume if the stop is violated we go back to a core position or are there other strategies to consider?
    Thanks.

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  68. something seems seriously off with gold...chart is beginning to look weak...we're only 20 points from our stop..doesn't seem like much

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  69. Troll-

    I don't know if you're a subscriber or not, but your (occasional) comments have been universally negative when it comes to precious metals. Not of the "SELL! SELL! SELL!" variety, but more subtle - a comment here and there, always when there is a opening to promote a view of continued weakness.

    Maybe your name is just getting to me, but are you by chance a genuine troll? I've never actually met one, and it seems like a pretty good gig- I'd love a referral if you're hiring. :)

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  70. Gary is that not a 2b reversal on the chart of gld? (Looking at the early March peak and the recent peak).

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  71. Mission,
    Yes it is a 2b. Moving below $1382 would complete the 1-2-3 reversal.

    At that point I would exit all precious metal positions and we would unfortunately have to be satisfied with the gains we've made as the odds would then be that the intermediate cycle has topped in a left translated manner.

    Would I be disappointing? Yes certainly. I think we all would be. We were all looking for one more big leg up. But the reality is we've all made a ton of money in the last 6 months and I can be satisfied with that.

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  72. Gary, DG or others,

    If I want to sell energy, but not sell short XLE, is there another vehicule please? Thanks for your help

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  73. You could buy DUG (2x inverse), ERY (3x inverse), buy puts on XLE, OIH.

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  74. Starting to sound more and more like I showed up a little too late to the party. Or maybe just really early for the next one.

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  75. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/massive-raw-gold-shortage-china-supply-and-demand-crunch-looms

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  76. thanks AJ!
    I really love this blog, I feel like part of a big family where everybody helps each other!!

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  77. Fixing SB's link:

    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/128057/20110329/gold-silver-platinum-palladium-rhodium-precious-metals.htm

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  78. Gary

    Could we get a rundown of the sentiment , blees , ect

    Put together they are stll encouraging aren't they?

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  79. Sophia,
    The reason to short XLE is the 2b reversal. You know where your stop is (right above yesterday's high)

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  80. Jeff,
    There is no doubt that sentiment, COT, fundamentals are all bullish.

    The only real negative it the degree that silver is stretched above the mean.

    But all those positives will go out the window if gold breaks $1382.

    I will not risk getting caught in a D-wave because I stubbornly refuse to accept what's happening.

    If gold breaks $1382 then I'm out until I see some sign that gold is coming back (new highs).

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  81. Both gold and silver trying to break bull flag down trend line at this moment.

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  82. Gary,

    I know you're counting the 3/15 low on gold as a daily cycle low, so if we go below that we would be looking at the new daily cycle being left translated.

    But what about this: If we do go below the 3/15 low and then reverse higher, would it be possible to count the NEW low as the daily cycle low and NOT count the 3/15 as the daily cycle low?

    If we did that, the new low would end up being the end of a stretched cycle, right?

    (I'm just considering ways that the bull might throw us off and then continue the move up.)

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  83. Can anyone please tell me what vehicle they use for their gold positions?

    I'm a new sub and already took my positions in GLD, but which vehicle follows the gold index?

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  84. Hulbert's take on bullish optimism:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-market-optimism-at-worrisome-levels-2011-03-29?siteid=nbch

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  85. I'm doing a little buying this morning.

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  86. Shalom-
    We appreciate your buying optimism!
    Can you use some of our tax dollars and significantly move this PM market higher!

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  87. jlinks,

    GLD tracks gold spot and gold futures pretty accurately.

    There's also IAU with a lower share price and it tracks gold accurately as well.

    I am using deep in the money call options on GLD for the portion of my portfolio I want to have in gold. But if you do that, be careful. It's easy to get leveraged that way because each DITM call option controls 100 shares of GLD and you can buy a DITM call option for a fraction of what you have to pay for 100 shares of GLD.

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  88. PC,
    There's little doubt about the last daily cycle low. But gold could break it and then reverse and move to a new high.

    That's what it would take for me to re-enter if $1382 is breached.

    I would only go back in if the pattern of lower lows was reversed.

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  89. Daniel,

    What are you talking about, tax dollars? Shalom don't need no stinking tax dollars. He can print all he wants!

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  90. There has to be a tremendous amount of political pressure to keep the dollar from sinking. The Fed is certainly aware of the consequences which ironically is the basis of our strategy. How long before reality overcomes the political? That is the question before us.

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  91. Thanks pimaCanyon

    My question is, when Gary says to pus stops at $1382 what fund is he talking about? GLD is trading at 138 right now

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  92. traderlady,

    Nice call on SHZ. Did you buy the stock? When? You have a target, or are you just expecting it to follow gold and silver?

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  93. jlinks,

    I believe Gary tells you exactly where to put the stop on GLD in the stops and trade triggers doc on the premium website. Take a look.

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  94. jlinks, the information you need is in the premium section.

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  95. Thanks for the replies,

    I read the Stops and Triggers page. Which fund tracks the actual gold price that Gary talks about? When he says to pus a stop at $1382 he is not talking about GLD which trades much lower.

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  96. Funmike-

    It's my belief that the Fed cannot and will not stop QE2. The continued weak housing data, unemployment, Europe, Japan, etc all portend continued weakness. So they are doing the next best thing to keep the dollar from shooting downward- they are jawboning - making noises about ending QE2 as if it were a legitimate option they would take. It is no accident that multiple Fed presidents emerged within 1 day of each other with basically the same message, that QE2 might need to end.

    Politically, however, the end of QE would collapse equity prices and this close to the 2012 elections, begin to shift sentiment against the current administration - something the Fed never wants to do.

    So they are playing a cat and mouse game to try to get an orderly dollar decline. This will only work for so long, IMHO.

    The true test of the PMs will be in early April after all the eom Comex stuff is past us.

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  97. I hope Gary's right about the general stock market. Seems miners do better in a weaker overall market lately.

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  98. Picked up a little more SVM, AG

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  99. $1382 would be the price for actual gold

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  100. @funmike
    Where whould I put a stop for that?

    Either i'm totaly confused or I'm not getting across :(

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  101. It would seem that as long as there is any confidence at all in the general stock market that will hold the miners down.

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  102. The mining stocks are responding now.

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  103. The general market looks great here!

    Many quality stocks breaking out, miners should come along for the ride although they will underperform.

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  104. Would someone be so kind to explain to a dumbwit why (Gary) "the only real negative it the degree that silver is stretched above the mean"? Which mean is that and what symbol should I use in stockcharts.com to see it?

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  105. General market in positive territory

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  106. Yep, junior silvers catching a nice bid. SVM, EXK, AXU, AG, GPL, etc. See if this action continues.

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  107. Shalom--
    LOL-- Thanks-- Feel free to print more-- (as much as you like)

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  108. That is why Gary gave the alternative stop with GLD instead of the actual gold. The point of the $1382 is based on the gold chart and the point of direction change.

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  109. Eamonn,

    Stretched above the mean usually refers to how far price is above a moving average. I believe Gary uses 200 daily simple moving average, but you could use others. 50 day, 65 day, 100 day, etc.

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  110. Eamonn,


    Use $silver. That is the 200 simple day moving average above the mean.


    James

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  111. "The general market looks great here!"-archrival

    Good luck, Beano!

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  112. I'm off to climb some rocks today. talk amongst yourselves.

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  113. jlinks,

    PLEASE read the Stops and Trade Triggers doc again. GLD is in that doc and the trigger or stop for GLD is there also. You might have to scroll down.

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  114. Just a thought ahead of time for everyone: The closer gold gets to $1382 (which it hopefully won't!), the better the trade that gets setup. For myself, if we get down there I will but a ton at, say $1390, with a stop at $1382. If we hold you make a killing, if not you lose nickels. Tight stop opportunities are not to be wasted as the risk/reward is tremendous.

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  115. Thanks funmike

    I was under the impression that I can actually hold positions on gold ounces somewhere and enter a stop order of $1382

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  116. Open your eyes Shalom, you're missing some great wealth building moves and it's not in miners.

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  117. Sentiment on this board has become negative recently.

    (Maybe a good thing)

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  118. SLW hourly cup and handle still looking like one to me. But those handles can be nerve wracking. :)

    SLW C&H

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  119. Gary went rock climbing. Looks like he saw something that look good for the PM?

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  120. Thanks a million pimaCanyon & james r. There's a lot of technical stuff and I'm doing my best!

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  121. archrival: You just make yourself look silly with comments like that to SB. He has made more money in miners than you probably will in your whole life (as have many, many people here). Stocks may or may not go up, but why talk to others that way? You will never get any respect here with nonsense like that and you really do make yourself just look ridiculous. I laughed when I read what you wrote.

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  122. Beano,

    Most here are doing extraordinarily well, but go ahead and share a few names if you like.

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  123. What's with the name calling? GROW UP!

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  124. Jayhawk,
    Thanks for the chart. Really puts it in perspective.

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  125. AG (First Majestic) barely corrected with the other juniors the past several days. Very strong stock.

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  126. Well, I did the buying I had planned for today. Nothing to do now but let the stops work, so I'm also going to step away for the day.

    Good luck everybody. We'll need some patience but Everything is OK.

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  127. Since Gary is gone I can say this: If you want to be short something, consider the Q's The reversed from a high of 57.22 and are close to that now, so a good play would be shorting near that number and covering immediately if they tick above it negating the reversal. Discipline is required! But you know exactly what your risk is (not much) and the gain would be many times that risk. If the Q's drop much, put in a mental stop at your cost.

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  128. 86-

    I hope it's right!

    Also looks a little like an inverse H&S or a bull flag if you like those in addition to the C&H. All with the same target with a good break up. 56 if my maths are right. :)

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  129. "We'll need some patience but Everything is OK."

    We will be more than OK, but unfortunately many here want results now, this minute, today! :-)

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  130. Silver looks to be flagging on the hourly and 4 hour charts too.

    /SI

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  131. pffffffffft DG!

    In my 40's and retired over 10 years, Shalom must be uber wealthy.

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  132. Same pattern as yesterday, over night drop and then a day of grinding back to even for the day.

    There doesn't seem to be any real fire in the belly of this beast needed to drive those lottery options. I'm going to dump at least half of them shortly.

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  133. Pima and all,
    I also am having trouble figuring our which gold instrument to use for a stop (I understand GLD!). Does the 1382 stop apply to the spot price or a continuous gold futures contract.

    Sorry for the bother but after many months of being a subscriber to Gary's service I am still unclear about this. Thanks.

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  134. Jayhawk,
    Hey, I just went back and looked again and saw the I H&S. Missed it the first time, but how can a guy argue with that? I saw the bull flag that you outlined as the handle right away.

    Open question to the board; when we see multiple technichal formations on a chart at the same time, does it add strength to the formations?

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  135. Dumped 150 @ $0.17 (lottery). Keep the other 150 to Friday.

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  136. I am not sure that you can use the actual gold for a stop. The idea of a stop is that if the actual gold price drops below $1382 then you would want to get out. In order to facilitate the stop you would use the equivalent GLD reading.

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  137. @86D

    I believe technicals are open for interpretation 86. Infact i would go as far as to say that technicals are purposely random in terms of reliability. Check out www(dot)effectivevolume(dot)eu or www(dot)alphascanner(dot)com (check out the blog)

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  138. silver looks nice above 37....

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  139. whilst Gary is bending mountains id go far as to say i like the look of Barclays BCS with a target of just under 21.

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  140. Ahain,

    I see your point. Maybe, `Volume is the truth`?

    Just wondering; is anybody having troubles with the site again? I couldnt acess the new site.

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  141. "silver looks nice above 37...."


    Yes agree, but IMO, she will need big brother (gold) to come to the party sooner rather later! Otherwise she will start to look rather naked up at those heights.

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  142. I am a little confused what happened to get in now she is about to explode, last chance, etc,.. referring to miners, gold, silver, etc...is everyone here during the day a trader?

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  143. archrival: My point is still the same regardless. Why come on here with an attitude? If you want to contribute, do. If you want to learn, do. Otherwise what's the point? "Hey, look what you're missing!" is not helpful. He asked for names of stocks you are buying and you still haven't said. That might (might) actually be useful. "Dow 15,000 here we come!" is not. Beanie was a real pain like that which is why he is starting to call you that. (Hopefully he has left) Useful contributors are always welcome.

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  144. @86

    I think volume is a large part of it. HFTs have made tape reading impossible. I think the most important thing to remember with volume is that pros are buying on weakness and selling on strength

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  145. Matthew: Conditions are always changing. "What happened to..." just means things have changed. The HUI breakout failed. That's new and requires a change of attitude. Ignoring new information will make one poor. Very few here are traders, BTW.

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  146. @DG

    Your comment provoked a thought. The question i have is what information constitutes a change of plan and what information does not. Because on the one hand if we took all new information then we would be traders so as investors what would you consider as information that qualifies. So would you say that the only information that qualifies as investor is "price"?

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  147. Poly,

    Gold has been up off the couch since 6 am. Give him a break!

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  148. Matthew,

    I was one of them screaming, but no day trading. My comments, were based on a new gold cycle that had just begun in conjunction with a dollar drop. If this was going to be the start of a blow-off top and one of the last couple of daily cycles for this entire C-Wave, it would have to explode at that point, IMO.

    It's still not too late of course, but with the cycle starting to get deep into the count, an upside explosion becomes less likely, quickly. That's not to say the picture is bearish, far from it and nothing sold, stops are in place. Just will require more patience. Of course Gary is the one to listen to, the rest of us do throw off a lot of noise :)

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  149. "Gold has been up off the couch since 6 am."

    Begrudgingly.....:)

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  150. Hmmm..Thanks DG. I guess I am trying to put Gary's nightly writings in perspective. A couple of days ago it was this train is leaving get on and yesterday it was uh it might be time to get off..that to me seems like a trader. an investor would say here is the market info and this is not easily going to change in the next 3-6 months (whatever time frame). this is how you should invest...

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  151. ahain: No there are lots of things that inform my decision, including volume, various divergences, response to news, etc. Even a non-trader is often deciding whether to add and how much. Taking information does not necessarily mean acting on it. As well, it is helpful to be mentally prepared for things that may soon come to pass. The key is to have a scenario in kind, but hold it loosely. Kind of like skiing: you know where you are going but need to be relaxed enough to handle bumps that show up. At least this is how I do it (I both trade and hold). The "Plan" is a stop at gold $1382, but there is lots of dancing around that that can happen.

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  152. "yesterday it was uh it might be time to get off"

    Gary reports have never said that. The previous cycle dictate the stops and when to get out, the rest is just discussion around the confidence of the current cycle/setup.

    If you're a subscriber, you have to all of the portfolio changes issued, they are very few and far between!

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  153. Matthew: Gary has NOT said to get off. He is simply saying what events need to happen to know it is time to get off. If he stayed enthusiastically bullish every day, regardless of what was happening, and then one day (when the stop was hit) said "O.K. now sell everything" he'd seem crazy. I prefer to get the PM's temperature taken often. No action has been suggested.

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  154. Are we out of the woods?

    This clips shows fundamentals still very strong- gold demand in China is there.



    Maybe the short term inflation panic into pms occurs in Asia and not in USA...I am a little concerned that we expect XLE to go down soon....won't this mitigate the public jumping to PMs?

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  155. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/massive-raw-gold-shortage-china-supply-and-demand-crunch-looms

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  156. DG,

    You ever go all in with your investable assets? Or always have some dry powder? And does all of your portfolio have tight stops or do you give a percentage of or certain trades wider stops?

    Thanks

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  157. Thanks..Not trying to inflame anyone just trying to make sense of the methods here and what I have gathered so far... So basically stops are set at 1382 for gold..not sure what stops are in place for miners... so if that is taken out then it is official that it is time to take what you have off the table?? I assume that it is a touch stop not a 15 min bar below, etc.

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  158. Mathew

    If you saw my post that I bailed
    That was just me
    I was over leveraged ( bad bad jeff )
    That was not garys call

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  159. Intern: I am not all in and virtually never are. I have two kinds of positions: tight stop trades and longer term holds. The PM's are longer term, for example. XLE short was done for a chart reason so the stop is when the pattern is violated. I'll take almost any trade if there is a good natural nearby stop because my risk is tiny. Once I get way in the black I have room and can let things move around (like AGQ), but I never take get into a situation where I show a large loss, regardless. A lot of my work revolves around entry points so that doesn't happen.

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  160. Matt: Gold runs the show. If $1382 is violated you sell everything, miners included, according to Gary's plan, because if $1382 is broken something is wrong.

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  161. Plans for an all out speculative orgy are still on. I just haven't taken off my clothes yet.

    Ok, my socks are off.

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  162. This is good stuff... So what constitutes a break a close below, touching 1382, 2 15 min bars below, etc..??

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  163. Ticking below the previous low of 3/15 at $1382.60 at any time. The blog will light up...don;t worry!

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  164. Matt: If you are not a subscriber you should be. It's the best money you'll ever spend and you will always be lost and a little behind trying to trade off the blog. I have made a pile off it and have been trading for decades. Improved my game a ton.

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  165. DG. I am just started a couple of days ago with Gary. Just trying to figure out how to interpret his work and the validity.

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  166. Dg
    I have my core back
    But how would I buy the breakout, at the close?

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  167. Or how do you buy A breakout

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  168. I also recommend subscribing to Doc www(dot)thedocument(dot)com

    He follows cycles like Gary and is complimentary - catches insights that Gary does not and vice versa. Both subscriptions are dirt cheap and have paid for themselves for a lifetime in my case.

    I figure I'm this invested in PM's it is nice to have both viewpoints to ensure all angles are covered.

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  169. Doc subscription is worth every penny, recommend without blinking.

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  170. Poly, are you a full time investor? From reading your posts, you seem very well tuned into what is going on, and know what you are talking about

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  171. DG,

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts/ideas on the gold @1390 trade and the Qs short. Appreciate that. I won't tell Gary :)

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  172. Jeff: No firm answer as to how to buy a breakout. There are a number of ways each of which is reasonable and each of which has drawbacks and advantages depending on what your reasonable goals are (re risk, maximizing gain, etc.) Gary'll let you know when he would do it.

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  173. Gary and others ...

    How do you feel about this article which points to excess short-term optimism in the gold market?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-market-optimism-at-worrisome-levels-2011-03-29

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  174. Put my stop on AGQ at 208. I'm not willing to ride it all the way back down to 174. The test of breakout should hold us, SLV 35.75ish. If it doesn't, I want out and will reassess the landscape at that time.

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  175. Thanks Eamonn. No I hold down a career in the financial enterprise software space.

    There are many bright and talented people on this blog, starting with the blog owner. I read a lot, all the time, so most of what I say is probably just other peoples thoughts :)
    I like to keep an eye and ear on the pulse of the tape, that has always been of interest to me.

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  176. whitebear - I think ma20 205 is easily testable .. so i think 208 is little tight. below 205 I can agree to sell. just my 2c

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  177. It doesn't feel like it, but we look like we are setting up a swing high in the dollar today, and swing low in Gold later this week if we can close above 1438.08.

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