I'm fairly confident gold has put in its daily cycle low. This will probably be the last chance to enter before the C-wave finale starts the parabolic run to the top. Stops have been raised. Risk is now about as low as it's going to get.
I will open the 15 month special one more time for any late comers that want to ride this final run. Enter smt15 in the promotional code box and click continue to link to the special offer page.
Here is the link to get you to the subscription page.
Gary-
ReplyDeleteJust got an email from my buddy who works for a local trader/fund. It was your report from yesterday cut & pasted into an email format. He gets all types of stuff forwarded to him from his Wall St contacts (dozens a day). When he saw it, he recalled your name as someone I had brought to his attention and asked "is this the guy you follow?".
Anyway, there are people still blasting your reports out there for everyone to share. You may want to look into that format where people can't cut & paste or select/copy.
I've seen some of these sites where I try and cut and paste the company's contact info for my database and it wont let me. Sounds like TZ would know more about this.
Gary
ReplyDeleteTremendous series of calls. Despite being a sub for over 6 months, I was not ready to believe your call on the dollar. To me, it just did not look like a possibility.
Hope everybody is enjoying the green today:)
I mentioned yesterday about disabling right click functions on webpages, it doesn't prevent you from printing but it'll discourage most.
ReplyDeletedam, just renewed last week
ReplyDeleteguy,
ReplyDeleteYou can cancel your monthly and buy the 15. It will kick in when your monthly expires.
If you did a yearly then it's not worth it unless you want to add 15 months on the back of your yearly.
You would have to cancel your yearly and do it in the website not at Paypal.
If you cancel in Paypal you will break the API link and your account will be locked out.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteJust curious about how platinum figures into this? It's a purdy metal..
Gary,
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot for your daily report (am a recently started subscriber).
I just tonight found this Blog (off the free site) and see you post regularly. Don't know how you do it.
You must feel like a broken record here. A lot of the questions posed as well as your answers are all seen in the daily subscriber report.
My question for you is in preparation for the end of this C wave that seems to be on the near horizon.
When do you typically make the decision to exit your full set of positions? Is this during the trading day or after the trading day (sell at open)?
I certainly would like to know ASAP once you are "out" so I can assess what I will do ;), and for sure it would help me to know mid day versus after the close for obvious reasons.
Is there a way to set up an RSS feed or an automated way to get an e-mail when you do a daily subscriber post - without you having to do extra work?
It would be greatly appreciated and would save me from having to click refresh a million times.
Keep up the good, objective, work.
Thanks.
I would at least start putting my website URL on the chart images, kind of like a watermark. That way everybody will know where they came from even if someone decides to rip them off.
ReplyDeleteYou can control whether another website steals your work, but it's tough to prevent individuals from sharing the information. It's the internet though so there's only so much you can do.
Platinum is tied to the auto industry. Demand will fall as the recession starts to bite.
ReplyDeleteThere is no way to stop people from cutting and pasting, if they have even a clue how to use a computer. Besides even if you could they can just simply forward the calls: "He says to buy, sell, hold, add leverage." etc.
ReplyDeleteRight click disabled? Try CTRL-A CTRL-C, open Word, CTRL-V
Gary,
ReplyDeleteyou're worth every penny ten times!!!
don't care to have 3 months extra, allready happy to have you guiding me trough the forest.
The referral program is the best deterrent. What do we need for that? the new user to give you our email address?
ReplyDeleteYou could at least imprint your name and URL on every chart/bitmap.
ReplyDeleteYes I need the new sub to give me the referring Paypal email address in order to remit the rebate.
ReplyDeleteGary, I think the easiest thing to do is to just stamp every chart with a watermark. That should at the very least protect the charts from being stolen.
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind you can only add if your subscription was created in the new website system.
ReplyDeleteIf you are still on the old subscription and were transferred in on Jan. 1st then you will have to wait till your old subscription expires before one can add.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteHere you go, something like this:
ReplyDeletehttp://img832.imageshack.us/img832/4416/waterh.jpg
MOVAX
ReplyDeleteYOU'RE HIRED! :)
Regarding silver's 20 MA. Price closed under it by a hair yesterday, but a true violation according to the guys in this book-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.amazon.com/Trade-Like-ONeil-Disciple-Trading/dp/0470616539
is to wait until the following day and IF price moves under the low of the previous day then a MA violation occurred. It's more a ballpark zone to watch price action... So today's price looks like a nice bounce off the 20. I looked at $silver on StockCharts and /SI.
SI
Right now, it's bumping into the 10 and finding a small amt of resistance.
I agree that there ultimately is nothing you can do about sharing - however you can make it more difficult than super easy and that is what should be concentrated on to a degree.
ReplyDeletePeople will flock to quality and will pay for it when the info is timely.
If people are trading and making investment decisions on this info, they will be paying. THose that are not are probably gold bugs with a hobby.
movax, great!! i believe this is the best solution for the problem.well done :-)
ReplyDeleteI'm off to climb some rocks. Talk amongst yourselves today.
ReplyDeletewouldn't this just get gary more subscriptions... at least more exposure. And more buys on our picks?
ReplyDeleteUS Dollar index at 75.75
ReplyDeleteThat blog posted on the previous post (http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/) looks like a combination of Gary & DOC. He or she uses the same terminology & language. (in a bull market, surprises come to the upside, "folks"--Gary like to say "folks" all the time.
ReplyDeleteI noticed when you try and load the site, it's not really working now. Must be desperately trying to take it down now that they are busted. Not one comment on any of the blog posts nor a lot of hits on the site.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteFrom this post it sounds like you're expecting the C wave top to occur during THIS daily cycle (assuming the low on 3/15 was indeed the end of the last cycle), right?
Is it possible that PM's will make the C wave high in the daily cycle that follows the next daily cycle low?
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAll my miners beating AGQ today:
ReplyDeleteGPL Up 4.96% 2,187,639
AGQ Up 4.34% 457,034
AG Up 5.74% 569,107
EXK Up 6.21% 1,438,203
AGQ is about 60% of portfolio. It's my hope/belief that the miners will keep up with AGQ, and perhaps one of them will outperform handsomely.
Wow, the USD is flirtin with disaster... so close to the Nov. low
ReplyDeleteToday around noon:
ReplyDeleteAGQ + 4.8%
SLW +3.6%
AG +6.0%
EXK + 6.3%
GPL +5.35%
AXU +4.3%
Le FOU
ReplyDeleteI was just thinking that same thing, and didnt see your post, I was writing while you posted :)
But at least they've gone up a bit in the 5 minutes that you posted to the time I did.
Alex,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the performance updates. Got'em all thx to you and a few others on this board. Well done!
By the way
ReplyDeleteCDE is a new contender...up 7.7% and really doing well since Jan 25th (almost a double)
euro and sterling back on the move
ReplyDeletewe might get nov low today
SILVERMAN
ReplyDeleteThx for that!!- I am in all too , and am happy for everyone ( I am not in CDE, but am wondering why not, at this point.)
Alex,
ReplyDeleteYou seem like the type who can take some ribbing (and apologies in advance if not) but your pic looks a little bit like "Attack of the Ant People" :)
Just feeling a bit giddy today as my portfolio recovers from earlier in the week. Sorry :)
It was 6 ticks away before it bounced... so close!
ReplyDelete"Sandy101 said...
ReplyDeleteGary
Tremendous series of calls. Despite being a sub for over 6 months, I was not ready to believe your call on the dollar. To me, it just did not look like a possibility."
Sandy, what do you see?
What is the November low number for USD.
ReplyDeleteAlex,
ReplyDeleteIt looks like you spied on my portfolio (although I've got a touch of RVMID.OB, GGCRF.PK, and SOHAF.PK added in to that mix as well) :)
Goldman reiterates 3 month target on gold of $1480 FWIW!
ReplyDeleteThat's mine too Alex, except I've got a large chunk of SVM. I'm actually kind of disappointed in this one and am a bit to heavy in this one vs. AG, EXK, GPL. I may move some out.
ReplyDeleteI was expecting to see a bigger bounce in SVM today. Any ideas whats wrong with this miner?
ReplyDeleteBought one at 1419
ReplyDelete1410 stop
Drifting lower
NY Fed confirms intervention in currency markets
ReplyDeleteBuy AP Photo Reprints
Interactive
Multimedia Bios: Key Players on the Fed
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The New York Federal Reserve Bank confirmed that it intervened in currency markets on Friday for the first time in more than a decade.
The disclosure came a day after the Group of Seven major industrialized nations pledged in a statement to join in a coordinated effort to weaken the Japanese yen. The yen has surged in the last week to post-war record levels following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.
A spokesman at the New York Fed, which operates as the agent of the U.S. Treasury in currency operations, confirmed that it had intervened. The last time the U.S. government intervened in currency markets was the fall of 2000 when it sold dollars and bought euros to bolster the fledgling European currency.
The spokesman refused to provide any details on the amounts of the intervention or what currencies were involved.
A stronger yen threatened to deal another blow to the fragile Japanese economy by depressing the country's exports.
In morning trading in New York on Friday, a dollar was buying 81.30 yen, up from 79.05 yen late Thursday and moving off its postwar low of 76.32 yen hit on Wednesday. Before the earthquake struck, one dollar bought 83.02 ye
SVM trades in chunks. Has mild days like this, then a huge day. I like it still, just have too much and may spread that $ around more.
ReplyDeleteSILVERMAN
ReplyDeleteI left for 5 minutes and come back to that!! hehe
I definitely can take a joke...prob!
i was thinking of changing that pic anyways. It New England and we had a rough winter, but today is 70 degrees!! and P.M.'s are GREEN!
Time to change the dreary winter (ant people) pic :)
USD officially at Nov. Lows... can it break it... suspense is killing me :)
ReplyDeleteIts like watching a movie!
Wingman and Jayhawks
ReplyDeleteI am heaviest in EXK, AG, GPL (believe it or not-GPL!!scary to some, but I got in GPL @ $2.5 and $2.7, and recently said if it ever fills that $3.50 gap, I'm loading up-and it just did a "close enough" this week :)
I hold others too, but honestly , EXK and GPL were up 10% daily on that last run. Thats good moves.
that dollar is getting closer down...
ReplyDeletethe dollar broke the 52 week low..
ReplyDeletegold is heading down too for some reason..
Arron
ReplyDeleteI like the updates if you want to describe the horror of it all
Haha!
ReplyDeleteDone.
Ok, Im starving, off to lunch and then a happy weekend!
Everyone have a great weekend!
Thanks Jayhawk.
ReplyDeleteaaron,
ReplyDeletewere can u see this real time?
i have 30 min lag
USD index.. only updates every 2 mins I think
ReplyDeletehttp://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif
US Dollar index streaming quote.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteguy, everyone here uses goldseek, its free for everyone to use, and its live.
ReplyDeleteI use my own brokerage.
Dollar in real-time:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/.
ReplyDeleteFor some reason I can't embed a link?
Sorry, that last link I posted was wrong. Here goes --
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/letters-retreatingbut-not-all-routed-2011-03-17?amp%3Bsiteid=yhoof
As I said, justice for Gary!
Ah, the old "blame someone else" shimsham...
ReplyDeleteI'm sure it was an honest mistake. He just accidentally cut and pasted Gary's report into his own document... happens to me all the time ;)
ReplyDeleteIn all seriousness, it's good to see credit go to the right guy.
Alex,
ReplyDeleteThose are also my three heaviest positions, with AG almost twice as heavy as EXK and GPL. Started buying it in the $6 range. IMO it's the best of breed for silver miners. Purest silver producer going (over 95% silver, almost no base metal credits). Also has the best chance to get from small/med. size producer to major producer (15-20+ million oz/yr) than anyone else out there now.
I'm all options on SLW. April 43's, which I will roll into May throughout next week. Nice liquidity and tight spreads makes it easy to get in and out and also to sell calls against it and pick up some cash if need be during the down moves like we just endured.
hey folks ...i know gary has addressed this ad nauseum but the dollar is tanking big time intra day and PMs should be goin ballistic ....some thing is up and its not that everyone is burned from the drawdown and gun shy to get back in
ReplyDeleteMarket is still nervous. Big guns waiting for a good entry.
ReplyDeletelol...."we mistakenly lifted, then re-printed another person's work, taking full credit"
ReplyDeleteGive it time. The market may be watching the Nov lows for a bounce. If those are decisively broken all he'll breaks loose.
ReplyDeleteProbably a lot of ppl waiting to see if the dollar rallies from this support area too.
ReplyDeleteDid anyone else add to positions yesterday or today??
ReplyDeleteI'm also waiting to buy more into any weakness. Doesn't look like we'll get it today, but possibly a little "back and fill" early next week?
ReplyDeleteMaybe we will get a good bounce off of todays lows. Lots gaps this morning to check and fill?
ReplyDeleteWhich options expire today? Futures or stocks?
ReplyDeleteShalom, what if we don't see a pull back?
ReplyDeleteI added Wednesday, but nothing since.
ReplyDeleteWhen Jim is done buying up the dollar it will continue down...
ReplyDeleteWingman
ReplyDeleteI agree, I have done due diligence on everything ( I cant invest as confidently if not)and AG is THE pure silver producer!Good future I.M.H.O.
I also do T.A. and on a wkly, CDE is a great big (3yr/daily chart) CUP/HANDLE with high volume breakout.
I am thinking of selling AXU and buying here. BUT , axu looks like a reverse H&S with a 412 min price target. HMM
Going to lunch to clear my head :)
New York,
ReplyDeleteI added April 34 SLV calls.
ahhh
ReplyDeleteThat was supposed to be AXU $12 target...lets not get silly here!
Excuse me on that last one, I had to check to verify, and my additions were on Monday and Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteNew York,
If we don't pull back I'm already pretty longed up. I no longer hope for a pullback, but rather plan to take advantage if it occurs. It depends on how much you own already, but if I weren't already long I wouldn't try to get too fancy on entries and risk missing the move.
Even if we have some lumps ahead of us, it's something we have to manage through proper sizing. We've already seen several bulls get shaken out of the long side (Turd Ferguson, Hammy, etc). I just remind myself that even if the C-wave doesn't materialize as we expect, we'll see much higher prices in the future. We could darn near max out and shut down computers entirely, even ride through D-waves, and still make a boat load. The important thing is to be in, and with size that won't make you freak through drawdowns so you can continue to let the bull work, IMO.
I expect the action in metals to eventually resemble what happened with fertilizer stocks 3-4 years ago.
ReplyDeletePOT, MOS, etc.
Meant miners, not necessarily metals, although they will go much higher as well.
ReplyDeleteI added more June $38 SLW calls, NGD, and May Silver mini futures. Comfortable at 110%.
ReplyDeleteAlex,
ReplyDeleteI noticed the same on AXU and added about a week before what turned out to be that nasty daily cycle correction, so I'm still a little under water on it (10%ish). I haven't looked at CDE as I focus more on the up and comers, but perhaps I will do so. Thanks!
I added a chunk of AGQ and some SIL APR 25 calls for the bounce play... spread was bad but still, they're already green... thinking if I should add some /YI... would do it if it pulls back a bit to ~34.54... currently at about 1.5-1.6x
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI subscribed a few weeks back, have been lurking/reading. Have not bought the recommended portfolio yet. Thinking about doing so this afternoon, but the Japan nuclear thing gives me pause...a lot can happen over the weekend. What do you good people think I should do?
ReplyDeleteCheers, Bill.
bill,
ReplyDeleteno balls no glory
Bill,
ReplyDeleteWhat is left to happen to the reactors?
No metal-related stocks today but I bought some October Disney puts.
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeleteGary gave you advice. Take it. Add at least a partial position. When Gary says the train is leaving, that's all you need to hear....
I'd be more worried about staying in paper currency than I am metals/miners.
ReplyDeleteAnyone know why when I embed a url html, my post appears for a few seconds then vanishes?
ReplyDeleteShalom, gotcha. Good point, and I've done just that. I had a little bit left over that I just put into SIL today at market so as not to get to fancy and miss any moves.
ReplyDeleteHowever, what about stops? I've put some trailing stops in but i'm worried about getting shaken off this bull?
Any suggestions? Should I also put in buy triggers??
I don't care, 'cause I don't own it, but oil looks like a head and shoulders. Doesn't fit with the dollar thesis though, so it is probably not valid here.
ReplyDeleteanyone have any information on PSLV and it's recent ourperformance?
ReplyDeleteI added yesterday to miners and silver but more to the miners. Go for it Bill! I am new too but making bucks with Gary.
ReplyDeleteCan someone help direct me on how to place stops on the holdings. I assume I look back at what the others (SLW, SLV, SIL and AGQ) were when GLD was at the designated stop? Am I on track?
ReplyDeleteThanks...
at ease,
ReplyDeleteJust sell everything when gld hits its stop. Easy peezy.
A trailing stop will knock you off the bull. Wiggle room will get you to the top
ReplyDeleteBill, scale into your position.
ReplyDeleteWhatever total amount you intend to buy, add 25% today, and add incrementally later. If we go down Monday you can add again. You know where the stop-loss is.
Portfolio recommendations (I prefer picking my own juniors rather than letting SIL do it for me):
AGQ
SLW
AG
EXK
AXU
GPL
Do your own diligence but this is the fast track. Juniors are volatile. Your metal (no pun intended) *will* be tested. Gary (and many others on here) is an assuring voice though and will help you think rationally during those stressful times.
Good luck.
NY,
ReplyDeleteI don't use trade triggers because I'm by the computer, but if I couldn't be here I'd use buy limits placed below current prices on the actual vehicle I was looking to buy.
In fact, I still have an open order on SIL to buy more at $24.73, but will have to revise that higher next week (possibly $25.10 or so).
The main focus is to be sure to have positions, and sizes that let you stay focused on the longer term potential. Drawdowns aren't fun, but with proper sizing they are opportunities instead of a disaster.
at ease, you could use a trailing stop which let's put in sell orders that 'trail' the CURRENT trading price by say 10%...
ReplyDeleteOr simply calculate the percent drop from here to gary's suggested stop for GLD and then do the calculatins from there...
Bill,
ReplyDeleteYou don't have to add a full position now. You can add some today. If we go lower, add more on a pullback. Don't add too much that you can't take the loss if we break the recent low. As we go higher and the profit on your position gets larger, continue to add on the way up.
'course, the downside to this approach is that you'd have a larger profit if you just go all in today (assuming we don't go lower than where we are now).
The main thing is: whatever amount you decide to add, just be sure you will be comfortable riding out a drawdown to where Gary has our stops. You don't want to look at the drawdown when we're only halfway to that stop, freak out and start selling your positions, only to see the market head higher after you've dumped part or all of your position.
For those that didn't follow David's link, here's what Peter Brimelow said regarding Murphy's plagiarism of Gary's newsletter:
ReplyDelete"An earlier version of this column published on March 17 contained statements attributed to Michael Murphy that in large part should have been attributed to Gary Savage. Murphy has since acknowledged that his newsletter mistakenly reproduced some of Savage’s content. The column has been corrected."
PSLV is tricky. With its increasing premium to NAV it actually follows silver pretty loosely. I own it but prefer AGQ.
ReplyDeletePeople like PSLV because of Sprott and the fact that they supposedly own the actual silver while AGQ is a derivative.
But AGQ is more accurate and and it some senses is less risky (even at 2x silver) because it doesn't have the built in NAV premium.
Of course you are charged a premium to buy the metal as well.
"mistakenly reproduced some of Savage’s content"
ReplyDeletewhat a complete ASS! Mistakenly reproduced? What a douchebag, a crook, a lying liar, and a thief with no remorse at all. You'd think the least the slimeball could do is acknowledge that he screwed up and apologize. But no, it was "mistakenly reproduced".
I recall Moosignal had issues with forgery and the offending firm had to refund memberships.
ReplyDeleteI also remember a guy being fired from TheStreet.com for forging someone else material.
Your reputation is all you have.
It's pretty obvious to any reader what "mistakenly reproduced" means.
ReplyDeleteWhat was it Bill from Japan said, right before he left our postings for higher and safer ground? All you have is your family and your integrity.
ReplyDeleteGuess those who stole Gary's work have no integrity, hope they have family.
Bill from Japan, our prayers are with you and yours.
Thank you Blammo
ReplyDeleteWashout from 1419 to1412.50
ReplyDeleteMissed my 1410 stop
I think that one is in the clear
April futures
ReplyDeleteI really think we are on the grind higher
ReplyDeleteEmail update: Gold Up Over $15 on Currency Intervention
ReplyDeleteGold climbed for the third straight day on the New York Spot, rising over $15 as of 10:30 a.m PT. Today, the Group of Seven nations agreed to intervene jointly in the foreign-exchange market to try to halt the rapid appreciation of the yen, while the dollar headed for a weekly decline against a basket of six major currencies.
Bill: If you listen to Gary (and me) you will NOT buy individual miners. They are very volatile, can blow up from bad news, and should be traded by very experienced traders. As you are late to the party and newish at this (if I understand correctly) stick with AGQ and maybe SLW and SIL. The right idea is to be in for the big move and not squeeze every possible percentage out of it. If you miss it because you freaked when a miner blew up you'll have missed a great opportunity. At least this is how i see it.
ReplyDelete...remember I told you all, I had several other subscriptions to stock advisor services. I am laughing as I have ignored them all since I joined SMT with Gary and now all the stop and sell orders are coming in to sell asap. So glad to be with Gary SMT!
ReplyDeleteHelp
ReplyDeleteNew funds available
To be clear. Sil;us is what we talk about?
It's priced at 25 ish
Someone confirm please
ReplyDeleteJeff,
ReplyDeleteYes SIL is @ $25.74 (3:07 EST)
miners are definitely still partially coupled to the market...
ReplyDeleteThanks Nike
ReplyDeleteFolks,
ReplyDeleteSaw some chatter about PSLV vs SLV.
I own PSLV and went into it *thinking* it's closer to owning physical and far better than SLV (in case of a derivatives/paper money etc blow up - what ever that means). Plus it's Canadian.
Yes, PSLV has high premiums and so it won't track silver's daily price consistently. Here is the link for daily PSLV NAV/premium....when it's close to 20%, I have seen it under perform significantly relative to SLV
http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx
And then there are internet sites that "supposedly" expose other problems with PSLV.
http://kiddynamitesworld.com/pslv-sprott-files-to-sell-sold-to-you-sucka/
Who to believe?
Personally, I am going to keep my small core PSLV for long term but any new powder I just direct it to AGQ/SIL since I beleive Gary's cycle thesis that once the C-wave is done, there will be a D-wave and hence, it will be time to get back into US $.
Blam. My first sil. 100 miners I can just feel them digging away
ReplyDeleteWasn't I nice to buy them after every one else
At Ease:
ReplyDeleteAnother response to your "stops" question: Some brokers provide an ability to place contingency orders. E-Trade does. In that case you can place a sell order for a certain stock "IF" GLD (in our case) hits a certain level. You might want to check that outwith yours.
thanks all, I will see what works best for each account. I am just glad any traveling I am doing, It will be over the weekends. I hope this C wave crests fast and furious!
ReplyDeleteBill, do what Gary and DG have recommended, Miners are fickle, they can reward you and they can rob you.
ReplyDeleteWMP - Do you have to call or is there a way to do it online?
ReplyDeleteGreat call on the dollar Gary!
ReplyDeleteGDXJ up 3.76%
ReplyDeleteSIL up 2.8% not far from day high
SLW up 2.7%
SPY up 0.28%
Let's not get greedy, I would say miners are having a fine day.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteShalom,
ReplyDeleteSo... are you using 'mental' stops? I don't have the luxury of sitting by the computer... or rather staying focused on my trading account.
I set up some trailing stops but wonder if that may shake me off the bull using the trailing stop I set.
Right now I have 10% trails on.. I'm thinking I should just use a stop limit??
AH
ReplyDeleteI can do it on line.
10% on metals might kick you out. they are so volatile.
ReplyDeleteContingent orders. Got it.
ReplyDeleteCan someone reassure me to stay long over the weekend?
ReplyDeleteStay long over the weekend.
ReplyDeletegood job miyagi!
ReplyDeletevery convincing :) I second that.
Thanks Mr.Miagi.
ReplyDeleteSigned,
Danielsan
Next week should be fun.
ReplyDeleteRegarding stops, I believe pimaCanyon mentioned setting trade alerts that would send an email or text enabling you to set it above your mental stop and allowing you time to watch the price action before acting.
ReplyDeleteThe numbers on the dollar index vary from source to source. The one I use ( but don't vouch for) indicates that the November low hasn't been broken, yet.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.forexpros.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-advanced-chart
What are the implications in metals/miners of the G7 intervention to defend the yen @ 80 vs the USD?
ReplyDeleteHello my fellow trackers, I've been an SMT subscriber for couple years now, and just like some of you, it took some convincing to act on what Gary says even though it was quite clear what he says makes sense.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, my first time posting. Hope to post regularly here. Glad to see all this discussion taking place...it kept me going earlier this week. I completely ignored my account and thought about April - that is, the month, not some girl :)
Really hoping there is no visiting the recent lows and we see some more spurt early next week.
Wes ... from multiple sources I see that low has been broken.
ReplyDelete75.57 is the low I see for today.
I base my stop areas on the volatility of the vehicle, then figure the size to trade. SIL for example has an average range each week over the last 20 weeks of roughly $2.40/share
ReplyDeleteLet's use a hypothetical 100K account, where we only want to risk 10%, or 10k. This would give us 4,100 shares (rounded down) with the $2.40 stop. One can adjust the amount of room they give for a stop depending on where they think we are in the cycle. If I wanted to add at higher prices or after a few day runup, I'd give it more room for a stop and adjust the size lower to allow more wiggle room.
You have to discover your own risk tolerance to find a comfortable stop area for you, then adjust the size accordingly, but that is a decent place to start.
The point is to figure not on how much cash you have to work with, but a reasonable assessment of total risk being taken.
Likewise, in my day trades or positions I expect to only own overnight, I need less wiggle room so will use a tighter stop with more shares. Trailing stops don't offer much advantage over regular ones, IMO, and as things get more volatile to the upside are more likely to get triggered (and at a disappointing price). This is why I have not moved my stops higher since my first entries, and the reason I haven't been shaken off the bull when it pulls back.
Does anyone else see the triangular consolidation and continuation patter in silver starting from 8am today? That should take us to $36 in a short while. Wondering if I should buy here as it breaks out, but probably won't as I am fully loaded.
ReplyDeleteI also prefer mental stop levels over actual stop orders which convert to market once triggered. One can get some horrendous fills selling into down movement.
ReplyDeleteThat doesn't mean I never use hard stops, but only if I won't be around. My goal is to get into strong hand status.
SB, thanks I agree with a lot of what you say, so basically protect your buy ins.
ReplyDeleteThe nice thing about longer term trades is that we don't have to get into everything all at once, as long as we stay focused on the plan and force ourselves to buy even when it's looking like it might go lower.
ReplyDeleteHippie,
ReplyDeleteI think you'd be crazy to sell. It's not just this weekend, but many more we have to hold, so buckle up!
SB,
ReplyDeleteThanks for explaining your risk based approach. That's useful.
Hippie, I agree with Shalom! You have to be strong in this game. Good luck:)
ReplyDeleteThe Strong Not-Crazy Hippie is staying long. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteAnytime, Silverman. And those figures are just a general guideline to get an idea of what kind of volatility to expect. A trader can always reduce the # shares owned and give them much more room, but this is one common method.
ReplyDeleteWas watching CDE all day
ReplyDeleteVolume just kept coming in. On a 3 month daily chart it looks Excellent , and it started to sell off at the close , So I bought it.
If you look at the 1day/ 5minute chart, you will see someone grabbed 1.5 million at the close...
...That WASN'T ME :)
Shout out to yesLetsdiscuss- so he/she doesnt feel invisible :)
.
Time to put down the thinking cap and tune out for the weekend... partly...
ReplyDeleteTake it easy folks, enjoy your lives.
Hippie,
ReplyDeletePulls back, do some nibbling...goes higher and you're already in. That's how I'm trading it.
Thanks ALEX! Been following your posts as I like to dabble in the miners (bought GPL and AXU after hearing you) I have been doing this a while and while it has been frustrating lately, at some point they will have to take this over from the metal. I don't want to be out when that happens. I do own a nice basket.
ReplyDeleteAnd btw, I'm a "he".
Scaled back my too large SVM holding and added that capital to GPL, AG & AXU positions.
ReplyDeleteI have some questions about options over the weekend for Bob and Wingman.
Take care boys and gals.
IMPORTANT PSA--YOUR REACTIONS REQUESTED
ReplyDeleteThis is a great community we have here. Therefore, I would really appreciate your thoughts.
Last month I initiated a complete position transfer of all my shares of AGQ from Scottrade into my new Interactive Brokers (IB) account. In other words, I was completely emptying out my Scottrade account, everything in there.
At the time, I had a conditional SELL order on half of those AGQ shares with Scottrade. Not a "Sell Short" order, mind you. A plain vanilla conditional SELL order.
Well, the position transfer was completed a couple weeks ago, and the past couple weeks have been fine. There was zero equity in my old Scottrade account. I didn't even log into it once in the past month.
Now here is the problem: Scottrade, after my account had been emptied and all shares transferred out, went ahead and executed a sell SHORT order this past Tuesday when AGQ opened at $180, in effect converting the basic SELL order I entered into a SELL SHORT order because, of course, there had been no equity in my account for a couple weeks--I didn't have anything to sell!
Late last night I get a "Trade Confirmation" email from Scottrade. Shocked that there had been a trade in an account with nothing to sell in it, I logged in and saw the damage.
Scottrade now says they will have IB deduct the amount of $$ necessary to cover the short from the funds in my new IB account.
I am outraged. It is not a catastrophic loss, but it really stings, and I think it is grossly unfair. Many of you (DG, Shalom Bernanke) have more experience with broker than me.
Obviously, Scottrade sucks, but do you think they are right about this??
Catbird--
ReplyDeleteI worked at a major brokerage firm and would assume that your transfer was similar to the ones we did their. When a transfer was initiated by another firm we were automatically informed not to do any trades or place trades in the account! Yours is a little trickier, but I am surprised by Scottrade and would call them to discuss further. The sooner the better!
I already called Scottrade today. They aren't budging. They are treating it like I sold short the shares and they want all the shares back.
ReplyDeleteDid you close the account when you moved your shares. No trade can take place in a closed account.
ReplyDeleteDaniel,
ReplyDeleteThere's got to be some recourse when an erroneous trade is made. Do you know what that is?
No the account was not closed, but it had NOTHING in it, no equity, after the positions were transferred out.
ReplyDeleteCatbird--
ReplyDeleteYou may want to start at a local Scottrade Branch if you have one in town or nearby. It has been my experience that when done in person they might be more inclined to "correct" or "bust" this trade. Again, the sooner the better. If you would like I could call our local Scottrade branch and do some "fishing" for you! Contact Gary--- (Gary I do not mind if you give my e-mail to catbird-- IF he wants help)
There is a big difference between a SELL order, and a sell SHORT order because a SELL order is impossible if you don't own the shares first!
ReplyDeleteWell, when I entered the SELL order, obviously I had the shares to sell!
But after the positions were transferred out, my SELL order should have been ignored. In effect, they converted it to a sell SHORT order.
I'd appreciate that Daniel.
ReplyDeleteAgain--Usually in a transfer the account is effectively closed! (Not literally) and the ACAT transfer process stays "open" for months to allow for dividends to transfer over! (But not all transfers are via what we would call the ACAT system.) I forget what the acronym actually stands for!! I will call Scottrade---
ReplyDeleteI would still go back and read policy on empty account. A trade shouldn't take place if there are no shares in it. Especially a short sale. Sounds like someone was a rookie at Scott trade. Or someone vindictive, otherwise, doesn't make sense how a trade could be done on an empty account.
ReplyDeleteBut just wanted to throw that closed account at you, as that is what they will probably say, it was an open account with an open order. But get your facts together before calling and stay calm and firm. Escalate, if you can't get an answer as you need too all the way up, can I speak to your supervisor, your manager on up.
I would approach it as their system error. You withdrew funds at that point all trades are off. Who didn't shut down the trigger, you or them, I would say them. It's their system that should void invalid orders.
ReplyDeleteDollar just sliced through the 2010Nov. low.
ReplyDeleteThe next target would be the 2009 Nov. low of 74.23
I say we take no prisoners.
Catbird--
ReplyDeleteOn the phone with them now!!
You rock, Daniel.
ReplyDeleteUSD is back down again to 75.56. 5:02 est.
ReplyDeleteCan you imagine Monday's open if that dollar keeps dropping....
ReplyDeletecatbird, that sounds like a 'naked' short... me thinks it's their error.
ReplyDeleteCatbird, when your transfer was done, did you also transfer or withdraw all cash from the account? Was it a zero balance? If that is the case, the trade should be an erroneous trade and they should be able to cancel it. I hope Daniel gets it done, but keep trying...and talk to the supervisors on Monday.
ReplyDeleteCatbird--
ReplyDeleteCalled Scottrade-- I used to know a broker there, but times have changed-- so unfortunately I do not have too much pull!!! He is not indicating it will go your way --Unfortunately. But it will not hurt--- Contact me somehow-- Hopefully via Gary???
Stuff like this must happen all the time.
ReplyDeleteThere has to be some regulatory body that you can bring a disputed trade to -- the SEC?
Catbird-
ReplyDeleteI have the name of our Local Manager you can start with? He may be able to direct your best starting process!!
Catbird-- David--
ReplyDeletethat is probably a last resort-- but I do not think it will go that far!! I would also callIB and tell them the problem and NOT to send shares back or liquidate!! ASAP!!!!
YesLets:
ReplyDeleteCorrect. There was zero ANYTHING in my Scottrade account because it was a COMPLETE transfer. I had no cash, the account was all shares.
The key is, all I ever entered back in Feb was a conditional SELL order. There are conditional sell SHORT orders, but I NEVER authorized them to sell short!
So with an account balance of ZERO, when the condition triggered, they took my SELL order and erroneously sold SHORT.
Daniel--
I am now on the horn with Scottrade's main customer line in St. Louis (their local branches close at 5).
I am hoping the local guy I talked today is just new and scared of losing $ for his company.
I think the dollar died... it's just lying there, not moving... Can someone go check and see if it's breathing.
ReplyDeleteGood luck Catbird and Daniel. I hope it works out, should, as it sounds like a system error, that someone didn't select a flag on your account to stop trades.
ReplyDeleteCatbird--
ReplyDeleteSee my previous post re: IB.
This will help as sometimes a firm will send transfer back if there is a problem-- MAKE SURE IB KNOWS NOT TO DO ANYTHING!! (If you cannot have Scottrade "bust" the bogus trade right now)
NEVER MIND!!! GOOD NEWS!!!
ReplyDeleteMy local branch manager was out of the loop--there was never any short sale. Central command saw what happened and cancelled my sell order, but my branch office didn't understand.
THANK YOU to everyone, especially Daniel.
Gary has a great community here. I'd buy all you guys a Heineken tonight if I could find you.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteCatbird,
ReplyDeleteI hope it works out. I can't stand terrible customer service!
What brokers do you all recommend. I've been thinking of switching out of etrade and going to options express.
CATBIRD
ReplyDeleteObviously Scottrade is going to be biased in their response too ( hoping you'll back down and comply).
You may want to tell I.B. what happened...ask I.B. what they would have done if it happened that you were transfering out of their account. ( you may get an honest answer , and advice too, since you are now their new customer).
Hope it works out- let us know-that is truly a bummer.
goodnight for now all.
Great news, Catbird.
ReplyDelete(You definitely owe Daniel a burrito at the end of the C-wave)
CATBIRD
ReplyDeleteJust saw your post posted as I wrote...
EXCELLENT!
Anyone buying me a subscription?
ReplyDeleteRazvan?
Eric?
Shame on Bernanke dude?
DG?
Burrito Dude?
Just kidding... You know I have been waiting to get on the bus... Ok.. I will buy one finally myself. I believe there is some referral scheme. Email me at mylifemytrade AT yahoo DOT com - I will use your email at the time of subscribing as referring person.
LOL "at ease" - Take it easy :) markets do close you know.
ReplyDeleteAlex,
ReplyDeleteThank you. Sweet relief. I feel like a new man.
It wouldn't have been a catastrophic loss, but it would have taken away half the gains I made in AGQ since the Tuesday morning low.
Daniel, if you're still reading, you're a class act for doing what you did. I wish I could air mail burritos.
Predicting a big upmove on Monday.
ReplyDeleteNot based on the bucks performance but on PM stocks.
My comments in my kitco thread:
"Very good volume for gold and silver stocks and especially because most of it was BUYING volume into the close.
Also ACROSS the board!
And silver closing near the intraday highs.
Predicting a BIG move north for PMs on Monday.
Also USO very good buying into the close.
So likely also Brent and Crude rallying on Monday."
And let's hope and pray there that geologist is wrong and there is no devasting earthquake in California over the weekend.
What, and have the "MyLifeMyTrade" curse on me for life, for a messly $15! No thanks.
ReplyDelete