We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

END GAME

For months and months I've been warning investors that the dollar was going to come under extreme pressure sometime this year. I expected it to probably happen in the spring. Many people thought I was nuts. They were sure it was the Euro that would collapse, despite the fact that the EU is doing everything they can to protect their currency while Bernanke is doing everything he can to destroy ours.

On Friday the last confirmation occurred to signal the final collapse is now underway. On Friday the November yearly cycle low was violated. Cyclically that is a major catastrophe.



We are now going to see the dollar get absolutely hammered for the next couple of months. The viability of the dollar as a currency will be questioned. There is a decent chance it may start to lose it's status as the world's reserve currency. (Coincidentally about the time everyone becomes convinced the dollar is going to hyperinflate that will be the point where the three year cycle low will bottom and we will see an explosive rally, along the same lines as what happened in late `08.)

This is what all the top pickers in gold and silver fail to understand. They are all trying to call a top based on charts without any understanding of what is happening to the currency. 

In a currency collapse the market will flee into assets that will retain their purchasing power. Four weeks ago we went past the point of the stock market being able to protect one from Ben's printing press any longer. So buying stocks as protection is no longer a viable solution.

Four weeks ago spiking inflation rose to the point where profit margins are now being hit. Ben will no longer be able to prop up the stock market by further debasing of the currency. Stocks have now decoupled from their inverse correlation with the dollar and will now follow the dollar down.
 The more Ben prints and the faster the dollar collapses, the faster the stock market is going to fall...and the quicker the economy is going to roll over into the next recession.

What will happen is that liquidity will rush into the commodity markets as the only true protection against the accelerating currency crisis.

This is why one has to ignore the top pickers and chartists. Overbought oscillators and stretched conditions are meaningless in a currency collapse. This is all about fundamentals. It's about protecting your purchasing power. You can't do that by exiting the one sector fundamentally best suited to protect you during this storm.

Now isn't the time to be selling your gold, silver or mining stocks, its time to be buying more.

810 comments:

  1. I have not had success either with teetymail. I am going to try Google alerts and will post if it works.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Counting the minutes until 6pm EST today.......when the currency and metals global markets open. We're in for another wild week.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Gary is your 15 month subscription still open? I forgot to jump on it Friday

    ReplyDelete
  4. tweetymail working fine for me...

    ReplyDelete
  5. Jeff,

    No, just AGQ. More of a hobby researching trends and leading indicators.

    ReplyDelete
  6. What's up with the sluggish silver. Dollar collapsing on Fri. and silver barely budged.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Silver was up 3.07%.

    If you think that's sluggish then you have gotten spoiled.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Mr. Mom - Barely budged? Silver up 2.66% on Friday...you must have high standards for what a big move is.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Clarification: On March 7 silver hit a high of 36.74 while the /dx was ~76.45. Now that the $ is making new lows silver is still 1.5 away from the high.
    People selling into strength or just how silver acts and it will catch up?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Mr.Mom, by the same token, in NOv when the Dollar was in this area, Silver was at 27.

    ReplyDelete
  11. silver was up a buck on Friday, and looked strong going into the close.
    I'll take that any day!

    ReplyDelete
  12. The metals are just coming out of a cycle low.

    By the time the dollar tags the 08 low gold will likely be $600-$700 higher than it was in 08. Silver may be close to 200% higher.

    Trying to extrapolate exact levels that things should be at if such and such happens is a waste of time because markets are controlled by human emotions not computers.

    ReplyDelete
  13. I thought the black boxes run the market ;*)

    ReplyDelete
  14. I'm going to add another 200 oz of gold when the futures market opens.

    ReplyDelete
  15. It's way too premature to be calling a top in the stock market. Tops are a process. The SPX is in the midst of a typical seasonal correction at 7% off the recent highs. The mid-caps recently hit all-time highs. Bearish? No way! So rather than picking tops, I will let the market tell me what it is doing via significant higher highs/higher lows, sentiment, selling/buying pressure, etc. Several weeks ago selling pressure hit an all-time low. Again, not bearish. Caution bears IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  16. N1tro

    I was also
    Stop at 1410?

    ReplyDelete
  17. The markets have been in a megaphone topping process for the last year.

    But more than that, and the fundamentals, there is the 4 year cycle low that's due for stocks in 2012.

    During secular bear markets those 4 year cycle bottoms are associated with recessions and bear market legs down (which tend to last about 1 1/2 years).

    More than anything it's the timing band for the next 4 year cycle low in the stock market cycle that tells me that stocks have likely topped.

    We know how well people have done by trying to fight these big long term cycles.

    The dollar bulls have gotten run over trying to fight the three year cycle decline.

    The stock bulls are going to get run over if they try to fight the 4 year cycle decline in stocks too.

    ReplyDelete
  18. i'm going to follow gary's stop of 1382.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Jeff,
    Any stop other than the cycle pivot and you risk just throwing money needlessly away on a meaningless whipsaw.

    Your stop has to be $1382.

    ReplyDelete
  20. Unreal, new oil spill being reported in the Gulf:(

    ReplyDelete
  21. Salty,

    Does the free version do what I need to get emails of gary's tweets?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  22. the 20th report has not posted on twitter yet???

    ReplyDelete
  23. The weekend report came out on the 19th. It has been posted on twitter.

    ReplyDelete
  24. wmp,

    yes, the free version of tweetymail is all you need. Easy to sign up.

    ReplyDelete
  25. "Now isn't the time to be selling, its time to be buying more."

    Is this in reference to the market as a whole? In "GET OUT", I understood the opposite.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Get out of stocks

    Get into PMs

    ReplyDelete
  27. OK thanks David. Still in the -20s here, brain slow like slushie..

    ReplyDelete
  28. Can someone point me to where I can find what the 2008 dollar low was? thanks

    ReplyDelete
  29. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  30. It's a diversion from his local problems.

    ReplyDelete
  31. "The metals are just coming out of a cycle low.

    By the time the dollar tags the 08 low gold will likely be $600-$700 higher than it was in 08. Silver may be close to 200% higher.

    Trying to extrapolate exact levels that things should be at if such and such happens is a waste of time because markets are controlled by human emotions not computers."


    Forgive me Gary but if Silver may be close to 200% higher are you reconsidering your target of 50 silver

    ReplyDelete
  32. ...at ease...

    I use the fxstreet streaming quotes. Just vary your timframe.

    http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/

    ReplyDelete
  33. Gary, I don't agree we are in a megaphone topping process as of right now. Cycles are one thing but that megaphone chart you posted recently was wishful thinking. Now if this current correction were to hit 10%, I would absolutely adjust my bullish view. Historically, a bull market has never contained more than one 10%+ correction. We had ours last summer. Again, I'll let the market tell me what to do. Also, the mid-caps are the growth engine of the market. Recent new all-time highs and not in a secular bear. So personally I will not consider the bearish side in the stock market until we have confirmation. Right now we have none.

    P.S. I am a subscriber in full agreement with your silver/gold views. No issues there. :)

    ReplyDelete
  34. How about 150% higher. Does that sound better?

    ReplyDelete
  35. Midcaps and small caps hit new highs during the 66-82 period also, but it was still a secular bear market.

    Despite Beanies protests to the contrary there is little debate that we are and have been in a secular bear market for stocks since march of 2000.

    In inflation adjusted returns there is simply no question that paper assets have been in a long term bear market and tangible asset have been in a long term bull market.

    ReplyDelete
  36. Thanks MrMiyagi. All the google searches tell the story, but no figure. They must not have wanted to worry the masses back then.

    ReplyDelete
  37. ...at ease...
    There's no mention of it now either. Just a blurb here or there, frankly if I had not stumbled onto this blog/website, I'd have no clue.

    ReplyDelete
  38. mrmiyago, I know, I feel I found Gary out of dumb luck. Had been investing in gold and making money, however not understanding how much more could be made and how to follow until now with SMT. As Charlie would say..WINNING!

    ReplyDelete
  39. USDX has closed below major support - interesting though it did not do it violently rather "coyly". My take - a false break which is about to reverse violently :) Lets see....

    ReplyDelete
  40. Very unlikely considering how early it is in the current daily cycle.
    Probably more likely we will see a day or two rally to convince everyone it was a false break followed by a complete collapse.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Redwine,

    Our whole political system is a mistake and is going to take many years for Gen Y to kick all those Boomers out and rebuild with down to Earth solutions.

    It doesn't matter if it's Obama or "fill in the blank" it's corrupt from top to bottom.

    The best "we the people" can do is to continually change who is in power (no matter the "party") to show we won't put up with the crap. Eventually we'll get someone in who cares and gets the message.

    It's more than "1" president. We have hundreds of politicians across the house, senate, state governments and judges to "clean."

    My 2 cents on a "sunny" day here in NY.

    ReplyDelete
  42. If we all had a crystal ball that was right 100% of the time ... :) Either way the USDX looks hugely oversold and I would not sell it down the river just yet.

    Just to add: I appreciate your blog and read it avidly. Also respect your input and take it into consideration with my decision making. Good luck.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Redwine,

    I suspect it's more like Kosovo than Iraq.

    It's mostly air support, we're not invading, and we're not picking up the tab.

    Obama has mostly been embarrassed into doing it after trying to play it both ways for a long time.

    ReplyDelete
  44. My proxy to check on this USDX break is USDJPY (maybe central bank inadvertently got the intervention right :) )

    ReplyDelete
  45. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  46. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Redwine,

    In the case of the two engagements you mention -- Iraq 1991 and Kosovo -- the cost to the United States in blood and treasure was minimal.

    I have no real enthusiasm for seeing the United States dropping bombs anywhere in the world, but Iraq 2003 this is not.

    ReplyDelete
  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  49. david

    i think fox said we are picking up the tab for 300 million a week


    on todays news

    ReplyDelete
  50. Redwine,

    Can you give me an example of empire building (philosophy or event?) by Gen Y?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  51. Blogger Kick said...

    USDX has closed below major support - interesting though it did not do it violently rather "coyly". My take - a false break which is about to reverse violently :) Lets see....

    In the past, I have seen what you are saying, but also I have seen 1 or 2 more down days (still oversold) and then simply a bounce back retesting that trendline breakdown , then a FAST FURIOUS sell off.

    Since Gold/Silver stocks have Volume buying coming in...other signs say it's time...I would be watchful. :)

    Using UUP as a dollar guide, the dollar had noticeable large volume on Thursdays down day. It was a convincing break I.M.H.O.

    (and for the 10 guys out there that want to tell me the UUP doesn't accurately reflect the dollar at all times...Thanks in advance ;)......
    I dont know where to find a dollar chart w/Volume,but I think Jayhawk can get one

    ReplyDelete
  52. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  53. Redwine,

    Iraq 1991 did not inexorably lead to Iraq 2003. We could have left Saddam Hussein bottled up indefinitely. Iraq 2003 was a war of choice, not necessity.

    Jeff,

    In prior instances like this (Iraq I and Kosovo), the US was reimbursed by its partner nations such as Japan for its services. I believe that the US actually turned a small profit on Iraq 1991. This is one of the hidden benefits of gaining international support.

    Even if the US' partners didn't pick up their share of the tab, $300 million is a relatively tiny sum -- less than %.03 of what the Iraq war cost.

    Fox is depending on its audience's inability to distinguish between "million", "billion", and "trillion".

    ReplyDelete
  54. I had mixed emotions about Iraq but with Libya I have a bad feeling that this is going to come back to haunt us.

    ReplyDelete
  55. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  56. Gary, i just tried to publish something but got an unable to publish error?

    ReplyDelete
  57. Alex,

    Thanks for pointing out the volume-spike for UUP on Thursday - I missed it.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Rob L.

    You re welcome, but some on here feel thats its not always exactly following the dollar.So I could say "Take it with a grain of salt"

    I have seen it as a good 'indicator', just a bit lagging at times,so it follows the dollar, but on Thursday, it definitely sold off with volume when the dollar was breaking down.

    ReplyDelete
  59. Most people would argue that 1991 was a war of some necessity, given that Saddam Hussein had just invaded Kuwait, a major oil-producing nation. History has shown that to allow an aggression of that magnitude to remain unchecked would invite further agression.

    There was some provocation in that instance, and the United States' interests were definitely at stake.
    It's hard to make the case that we would have been better off not intervening in that instance.

    Of course, if you are a pacifist or an isolationist, you may disagree.

    ReplyDelete
  60. I can't really think of a good reason to kill, attack or invade another country, especially one on the other side of the earth. I would never point a gun at another human and take a life on behalf of my government. If my home was being invaded I would be willing to fight, to protect my family, friends and society.

    ReplyDelete
  61. Movax,

    You won't get any argument on that from me.

    ReplyDelete
  62. Actually as far as 1991, I don't have too much issue. Most of the world agreed to stop that aggression. Interesting that it was okay for the US to do almost the same thing though.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Hi Gary,

    When I looked at the charts today, most of the gold miners have been lagging a bit...we only have 6 weeks left before gold hits 1650...

    the miners will have to do a lot of catching up to do in this scenario...HUI has looooooooooooooooooong ways go to the 700-800 level in 5 weeks...is that even feasible?

    what am I missing

    ReplyDelete
  64. Gary, i believe i'm that guy you referred to that "told us the divergance on the dollar would surely result in a higher dollar :)" (3/18 @4:06pm). Actually, i never said anything would surely happen. I asked your opinion on the falling bullish wedge on the dollar and the IHS on the ten year. you said i was wasting my time with technical analysis and that fundamentals and sentiment coupled with your cycles interpretations were a better tell. I previously posted my comments on my serveral reasons why i was hedging my PM positions with puts on SLV. I added further to that position of deep ITM money SLV puts near the close on Friday. Your weekend report makes total sense. We all know Ben's printing press is destroying the dollar and we all saw what the dollar did Friday and your assessment of the impending acceleration to the downside. Your cycles also make sense.You did say in your weekend report "barring something out of left field". I have always hedged my positions especially when the obvious appears. What i find further troubling is the BOJ's intervention in its currency this past week which was in earnest and imo will continue to be in earnest. Japan is attempting to "weaken" its currency not to save it from a death spiral of weakness..i think that is key as what do you think they do with all their freshly printed Yen?...they sell it and buy the US Dollar. I also believe Jim Rogers is buying the dollar...hand over fist. Again, i am a sub and believe you are correct on the upcoming C-Wave, i just think we get a "severe" correction first, especially in Silver as this metal seemes to follow overall market "sentiment" especially if the global markets retreat in earnest. So I remain hedged expecting a panic sell in the metal that could easily bring it back down to its 200dma ($24-26)without violating the current bull.

    ReplyDelete
  65. This could end up being one heck of a Bear Trap for folks shorting the dollar next week. I'm thinking a nasty bounce here for the dollar is possible. I have no dollar postion here, but I'm reading many blogs today calling for a much lower dollar the next few weeks. Well, maybe it will, but there are lots of folks on one side of the boat here.

    Good luck and good trading to all next week.


    My only current position is VXX.

    ReplyDelete
  66. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  67. Interesting that Gary's friend Doc has pushed his target for the C-wave top out until June.

    I have to say that it seems hard to imagine a parabolic top forming in the short span of time until May.

    ReplyDelete
  68. Technically on the charts gold really does look like an absolute dog, silver looks a little better but still full of negative divergence.

    I think the major factor here is managed money, will they get interested in gold again, that would push the price higher.

    ReplyDelete
  69. Redwine,

    I can only speak for myself and what I know and discuss with my family and close friends.

    I looked up OWG and took your reply into consideration and do not believe Gen Y really cares (consciously or subconsciously) to rule the world or drive towards a single entity that rules the world.

    Gen Y is about collaboration, being popular, doing what makes sense for 2011 (not what made sense 5, 10, 50 or 100 years ago). Yesterday was Facebook, today is LinkedIn, tomorrow will be something else.

    Unfortunately, "we" are a generation about "what is in it for me" but at the same time "I hope it works for you, too." "We" want to be told and have certification that we are on the right track.

    I can tell you from my perspective....monotonous wars with "blank check" spending when we have real problems at home and a middle class that needs help...is not my idea of positive progress.

    ReplyDelete
  70. Nike,
    From Friday's level 700 is only a 30% rally. That is easily doable, especially during a final C-wave rally. 40%+ can be done in a final parabolic move.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Rob,

    I could be wrong, but I made the statement based on his charts and from the following passage:

    "Since November, when the last intermediate low formed, I have been eyeing late April as the time frame for a major low. However, for reasons discussed in the Member Letter, I am now watching for signals to confirm this low will be pushed out to early summer."

    ReplyDelete
  72. Darwin,
    We just had the severe correction. It bottomed at the January trough. That was the intermediate cycle low.

    How many severe corrections do you need?

    ReplyDelete
  73. David,

    If you reread Doc's post again you will see that the dates you mention are a possibility not necessarily a probability. He wants people to be prepared. It is simply an alternate scenario. :)

    ReplyDelete
  74. OK. I am not a Doc subscriber, so I am not as privy to his thinking. Maybe he'll come on and clarify.

    ReplyDelete
  75. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  76. David,

    I am paid subscriber to both services and it is the smartest thing that I have ever done, with regards to my investment portfolio.

    ReplyDelete
  77. Rob L.

    Why subscribe to both?

    ReplyDelete
  78. Redwine,

    P.S. - I am not actually a "pure" Gen Y'er. I'm on the cusp of X and Y (1977) and feel I can relate to both.

    ReplyDelete
  79. Gen X (Wikipedia): the term generally includes people born in the 1960s and '70s, ending in the late 1970s to early '80s, usually not later than 1982

    Obama's birthdate: August 4, 1961

    ReplyDelete
  80. Gary, i dont think corrections have a maximum limit of times they can happen. Yes, we did have a correction albeit i would say a 30-35% correction could be in store and is more "severe". I have traded Silver for many years and in that time i have noticed, amognst other variables (including tech analysis) that an SPX decline has had a correspondingand surge of fear (selling) in Silver. Take a look at what Silver does when we get an SPX decline of any severity....its astonishing to say the least. Now if i add everything up ive been reasoning on my hedges, including what i just mentioned about BOJ's intervention, an SPX decline which i believe could happen in earnest shortly may be just the icing on the cake and only makes me more certain of my hedge. We are in unprediclble times right at this moment. Nothing, including cycles is immune from what is happening...IMHO

    ReplyDelete
  81. Darwin,
    Do you see any period in the last 7 years that silver didn't follow gold into a C-wave top?

    Hedging is nothing more than a scam that Wall Street pulled on clueless retail traders.

    If you are large fund and would move the market if you tried to get out suddenly then yes you need to hedge with derivatives.

    None of us are going to move the markets. We can exit at the drop of a hat. If you think silver is going down just sell. It's that easy. There's no need to buy an expensive wasting asset. Then you just have two positions to manage instead of one.

    ReplyDelete
  82. I think you are just mimicking Hamilton's sorely misguided theory that silver is some how influenced by the stock market. It's not.

    It is driven by supply and demand and it follows the cyclical driver of the precious metal sector (gold).

    Fundamentally Bernake's monetary policy is going to cause a currency crisis. That is going to depress the stock market because inflation is going to kill profit margins.

    A currency crisis is like rocket fuel for precious metals. Two completely separate asset classes with two completely different fundamental drivers.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Gary,

    When you set your trade triggers, how much of your positions and which ones will be sold?

    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete
  84. I would sell everything at this point as hitting a stop would probably mean the D-wave has begun.

    ReplyDelete
  85. Gary, i'm not arguing the expected move in Silver on Golds coat tails during the C-Wave top. Point taken and agreed. Perhaps i should say "protect" rather than "hedge". If i didn't have my PM positions i would have still entered my "puts" on SLV given all i have reasoned. You may have commented that this was just "gambling" then and a losing proposition given your confidence on your predictions. I enjoy the markets and all the opportunities it has to offer both good and bad. I'm excited at the prospects of whats to come. Theres a reason i subsribe to your site but it doesn't mean i will always agree with your thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
  86. Gary, You gave the GLD trigger, how would I know what to put SLV, AGQ and SIL, SLW? Do I just see what the others are at the price of GLD? thanks

    ReplyDelete
  87. at ease,
    You use a trade trigger to stop out of all positions. If you don't know how to set a trade trigger call your broker. He will be able to explain it for you.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Gary

    The chart you posted in your post at 1:24 p.m.(silver) earlier today was kind of what I was looking for when I asked about Hamiltons article on -

    Cautious silver: its sell-off prone in Mkt corrections despite Gold.

    Thats a helpful comparison

    Thanks

    p.s. maybe you dont care, but you didnt "smart money' label the charts on your new post , like you did in the sub area.

    ReplyDelete
  89. Intern,

    The balance works for me. The two aren't carbon copies of each other.

    Best education one can get about cycle analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Gary,
    without spilling info, aren't you shaving a little closely these days?

    I just see too much running of stops in everything.

    Instead I will babysit through until I am comfortable. ( I answered my own dilemma)

    ReplyDelete
  91. Hamilton has no clue what he's talking about with silver and the S&P. I think he must have just made it up as he went along. Silver follows gold. It's driven by completely different fundamentals than stocks.

    Look at March 08. Silver was making a final high while stocks were putting in a yearly cycle low. You have to wonder what this guy was thinking when he wrote that article. You would think he could at least pull up a long term chart and see if his theory held water.

    My webmaster set it up so charts in the premium site automatically get the watermark. Personally I have no clue how to do it for the blog.

    ReplyDelete
  92. Tommy,
    A cycle low will not get violated in an uptrend. The proximity of the stop is meaningless. It just has to do with a cycle bottom.

    I'm pretty confident we now have the cycle bottom in place for gold barring another event out of Japan. If that were to happen early next week then I would give it some wiggle room to make a slightly lower cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Hamilton's basically reiterating a call he's been wrong on for months. I have to imagine his subs are pissed to have missed the silver rally, so he's effectively arguing with the market.

    I don't get all the hand-wringing. We have stops in place. Nobody's going to get killed here if Gary's call doesn't pan out.

    It's the sitting that makes the money, not the thinking.

    ReplyDelete
  94. Looks like he's ineffectively arguing with the market :)

    ReplyDelete
  95. The dollar index chart at http://www.timingcharts.com/ indicates that we haven't made a new low. Furthermore, commercial longs are at 3y highs. Guess the commercial traders are going to get raped?

    ReplyDelete
  96. David, you're right! But fear does strange things to the mind.

    If you're playing the "cycles" there isn't much to do here but be fully invested an ride it to riches, or get stopped out with very good profits since Jan. Why we need to question a very successful formula to date is beyond me.

    If you're not going to commit, unless you're all cash, what is remotely more successful in place?

    ReplyDelete
  97. The COT for the dollar has no predictive value what-so-ever. If anything the large specs have been better to follow than the commercials.

    ReplyDelete
  98. Narayana, that site even has the friday's closing price wrong.
    Get a better source.

    ReplyDelete
  99. What a healthy open!
    Should be a great week ahead!

    ReplyDelete
  100. ROB L

    I see DOC posted his commentary in the public area.

    You said you are a sub of Gary and Doc.

    They both use cycles-yet they vary on the general market since Gary said "GET OUT" and Doc just said he thinks the IT low is in and the correction is over for SPX.

    So...how do you proceed if they differ at times ? Have they differed on Gold/Dollar IT lows in the past? and you subscribe to both- How do you invest if they give 2 different views...kind of wait and see?

    Not being critical, I was just thinking that I might be confused if 2 cycle guys see things different ( I am mostly a T.A. investor, but enjoy and have seen Gary use cycle analysis confidently in tricky times)

    ReplyDelete
  101. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Silver opens strong on the globex.

    ReplyDelete
  103. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  104. so what will happen after dollar rally, it will collapse again ?

    ReplyDelete
  105. 2 more dollars and we can have a swing in gold.

    ReplyDelete
  106. O,
    That's exactly what I think will happen.

    We've kicked the can down the road for so long that letting the market run it's course now has become so painful that we can't conceive of letting it happen.

    If we were to let nature take it's course and cleanse the system virtually every large bank would go bankrupt. The world would descend into a deflationary depression much worse than the 30's. Unemployment would soar over 30%.

    The powers that be will never willing let that happen, so they will continue to print and stimulate at the bottom of every successive collapse until they eventually destroy the currency.

    In the end all they will have accomplished will be to turn what should have been 2-3 years of misery into 20.

    ReplyDelete
  107. Hey Gary,

    In the report you mention that you probably expect two more daily cycles for the dollar in this final move.

    After the first daily cycle, do you expect a 3-6 day dead cat bounce for the dollar (which would be a failed daily cycle right?) Then continuation down.

    ReplyDelete
  108. Someone wrote that silver will fall along with the stock market because he read it on a site?

    Interesting! Why?

    Gary never told us that there will be a crash in the market along with the dollar decline..

    How is it that there are so few that look at where the dollar is going? How can everyone else be so wrong but Gary so right?

    Its scary...Gary...Lol!

    ReplyDelete
  109. Gary

    If one is already a sub , but your special is open...can you repeat how one would add on the special to their subscription if they had another 2 months left on an ongoing one. I thought you mentioned a corerct way, and an incorrect way.

    ReplyDelete
  110. Gary..The next three-year low in the dollar how deep will it go?

    And when do you expect it to happen? Spring 2014?

    ReplyDelete
  111. Moneyman

    "Gary never told us that there will be a crash in the market along with the dollar decline.."

    Did you miss Garys report?

    http://smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/2011/03/get-out.html

    ReplyDelete
  112. Alex,
    To begin with you have to already be in the new system. So this will only apply to monthly subscriptions.

    If you are a transfer from the old website then you have to let that subscription run to expiration before creating a new subscription in the new system.

    But for those that are on a month to month and want to change to the more cost effective program, first you need to log in to the premium site. Then click on the subscription link. Cancel your monthly subscription in the website, NOT IN PAYPAL. If you cancel in Paypal it breaks the API link and your file will be immediately terminated and you will lose any remaining time.

    After you cancel your monthly you can then create a new 15 month and it will automatically kick in when your monthly expires.

    ReplyDelete
  113. As it is the banks are paying (increasing) dividends.
    Outrageous.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Money,
    The dollar hasn't even put in the current three year cycle low and you want me to take a guess at how low the next one will be?

    LOL I can assure you I'm not that good.

    ReplyDelete
  115. The S&P might go to 1180 or something in 2 months..Who knows..?!?!

    That is 9 % down from here..Is that a crash? No..

    The money will leave the stock market but i dont think it will crash down when the dollar decline..

    ReplyDelete
  116. Gary

    Just wondered if you had some thoughts about the U.S. dollars development. The future will tell us..

    ReplyDelete
  117. Gary

    ThX for clearing that up! You may want to copy/paste that explanation and keep it handy on 'Microsoft word'document saved to your desk top or something , so you never have to re-write that again. :)

    ReplyDelete
  118. Alex,
    It's right there on the home page.

    ReplyDelete
  119. Son of a Gun!!

    Yes it is!!

    You should have just replied

    Idiot, its right on the homepage in the first place :)

    sorry

    ReplyDelete
  120. Well thank goodness we have plenty of doubting Darwins out there. Ron Ensana was on CNBC saying he was short gold and long USD. We need these folks.

    ReplyDelete
  121. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  122. Gary,

    Who is this Doc people are discussing and what is his website?

    Thanks

    Alex in Montana

    ReplyDelete
  123. http://www.thedocument.com/

    Doc is a good friend of mine who also writes a newsletter. we often share the same views. When we don't usually a burrito is at stake for the winner.

    I'd be willing to bet one that the stock market will not make new highs and that this is not even close to a cycle low yet.

    We're even on the burrito tally by the way. This would be a chance for one of us to go back into the lead.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Gary,

    Thanks for info.

    Alex in Montana

    ReplyDelete
  125. Gary

    is there a place that you have posted all the markets you track with all the cycles going years back?

    ReplyDelete
  126. Jeff,
    No I don't have all the cycles charted. Way to much work for me to attempt that.

    The cycle explanations are in the terminology document. You can take the criteria and figure out historical cycle bottoms if you are so inclined.

    ReplyDelete
  127. Gold:Silver ratio falls back under 40.

    Wahoo.

    ReplyDelete
  128. Gary --

    Are you using placed stops or are you just keeping them in mind?

    ReplyDelete
  129. gary
    ya . well i look at what you have done over the last year and i see a bigger dip beside your cycle and cant figure out why one was chosen and the other not.
    i am starting to see the light on a few things.

    ReplyDelete
  130. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/secret-iran-gold-holdings-leaked-tehran-holds-same-amount-gold-united-kingdom-and-buying-mor

    ReplyDelete
  131. My gold futures system just went to a buy.

    ReplyDelete
  132. been buying =)
    but that is a good sign i suppose

    ReplyDelete
  133. I think everyone is having happy dreams tonight

    ReplyDelete
  134. Just opened the futures charts and what a beautiful sight!

    Gary - thank you for your level headed analysis, and reminders that the consolidations and pull-backs were in fact the buying opportunities we were looking for. I was nervous last week with all the currency intervention/G7 talk, but decided to add my leverage with your final confirmation on the dollar. Was sweating bullets and had a hard time hitting enter, but happy now:)

    To any prospective subscribers, I have subscribed to many services and Gary's is by far the best. How many times have you read the nightly report, only to have some event (ie currency intervention) occur after and wonder "has the analysis changed now?". Gary's active participation in the public blog is an awesome component of his service and allows me to answer these doubts real time. High ho silver!

    ReplyDelete
  135. Oh and BTW while Gary's early attempts to catch the intermediate bottom stung (the reality of trading real time for anyone). Gary was right the losses are a verrry distant memory now.

    ReplyDelete
  136. Veronica,

    Thanks for posting the update about your system!

    Nice to see that, I'm pretty much fully loaded, but I did nibble a bit more on Friday. Sitting on deep in the money GLD and SLV calls as well as some SLV shares and a little GDXJ and SVM. Gold's open this evening made me smile. (and I'm sure lots of other folks on this blog as well :-)

    Does your system give targets or just buy/sell signals?

    ReplyDelete
  137. Swing low sweet chariot!

    Yes, pimaC, she do look sweet, especially after MINI sprung a leak in Cali's 10+ inches of rain over the last 24 hours. (She's already survived a forest fire, having melted on one side. Might be time to retire her after this C-wave.)

    ReplyDelete
  138. Veronica,

    Lets see if I've got this right. Your gold buys are real buys and your gold sells are really buys, too.

    That's just like global warming works.

    ReplyDelete
  139. does this mean I will be moving up all my stop triggers now? =)

    ReplyDelete
  140. interesting chart that adds support to Gary's call that the stock market has topped:

    https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-qXMXxBD7fJk/TYah61ogU4I/AAAAAAAAAGY/tZRz8leeusU/s1600/Cycles++++20110218+.png

    The chart points out how since the 666 low on the SPX, the market has made a high every 67 days. The recent February high came on the 67th day after the last high.

    I know that Gary does not count cycles from high to high, but it seems that these kinds of "cycles" do appear in the markets, continue for a while, and then disappear.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Note: that chart originally came from Raj Times and Cycles

    ReplyDelete
  142. Wes, you should read a little more carefully what I wrote about my signals and IT moves.Regardless, it sold at 1424 after gaining about 80.00 and bought right back at 1428 and sidestepped almost the entire correction.Pima, no targets with my system as it backtests better without any.

    ReplyDelete
  143. Hello,
    Is there a seriously credible security I can buy in the stock exchange that holds bullion to back up its price, AND has the option for the owner of the security to take delivery of the bullion? I am interested in both silver and gold

    ReplyDelete
  144. Thanks, Veronica. I for one am always interested in things that have been tested and work. (I'm especially interested if they have not been data mined or optimized!)

    ReplyDelete
  145. PC,
    You may have noticed that two of the cycles start at troughs and the rest are peak to peak. The last cycle ran 5 days past 67.

    It's nothing more than data mining unfortunately.

    ReplyDelete
  146. Eamon,
    GLD.

    I'm not sure if one can take delivery on SLV or not. I suppose you probably can.

    However if you want physical then just buy physical. The reason to buy GLD or SLV is the liquidity and ease of selling without the large spread and difficulty shipping and storage associated with physical.

    ReplyDelete
  147. The mini gold and silver futures contracts will let you take delivery with a min of 10 contracts. Traded as /YG & /YI on ToS

    ReplyDelete
  148. Thank you Gary. I watched a video posted on Deric O. Cadora's Twitter page about US inflation and default and it got me frightened. Deric is a serious trader/investor like yourself (I am also a subscriber of both SMTP and DOCument) and its important for my peace of mind to see that two serious professionals generally concur with their investment ideas.

    ReplyDelete
  149. Anyone know why CNBC and Bloomberg have different PM readings than Kitco? Right now CNBC and Bloomberg show silver at $35.89 for a gain of 2.37% and Kitco shows silver at $35.89 for a gain of 1.5%. There must be something real obvious that I'm missing.

    ReplyDelete
  150. One is probably using end of day close and the other the close in the pit.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Thanks. My hope is that the 2.37% increase is the right number!

    ReplyDelete
  152. 1.6% will be the right number if you are trying to figure the move in SLV.

    ReplyDelete
  153. AGQ actually, but I got it, thanks. I'm a new subscriber and this is definitely the best 15 bucks a month I've ever spent.

    ReplyDelete
  154. Silver needs to take out that ridiculous resistance at 36, and then it can fly again.

    ReplyDelete
  155. ok guys here we go now

    swing done and we're ready to launch.

    ReplyDelete
  156. Eamonn "a seriously credible security I can buy in the stock exchange that holds bullion to back up its price, AND has the option for the owner of the security to take delivery of the bullion? "

    You might want to check the ETF issued by the Cantonal Bank of Zürich (ZKB). See also http://www.mountainvision.com/newsletter.php?view=7cbbc409ec

    ReplyDelete
  157. Swing low in gold earlier tonight. (I wasn't trying to mess with you guys when I said that the gold low on Tues would hold. I've got some tricks too :-)

    Anyway, The gold low wasn't too difficult to call (once got close and happened. I certainly wasn't calling it before.), but I was looking to add *silver*, not gold.

    Recall I had added about 20% before the big drop which was clearly too early and helped to destabilize my mindset by time Japan and Tuesday hit.

    In addition, while gold sorta did what I expected (at least by me seeing the bottom), silver never dropped to my buy point. (Again silver seems to be doing its own thing and has more strength than gold).

    When silver never hit and when I saw the low was in on gold I tried chasing without much of a plan, but it didnt go too well (does it ever?)

    Chased silver. Stopped out. Waited. Bought back once it looked bullish again. Stopped out. Bought back. Paniced/Fakeout. Sold. Rinse...repeat..

    We've all been there.

    At one point when it looked bad all around I even sold some of my original silver position and was contemplating where appropriate stop levels would be if everything started collapsing. (Many others on the board seems to be feeling it too.)

    Nevertheless patience and persistance paid off and by thurs/fri I was getting back into the vibe and catching things again. I managed to get back to my pre-drop silver position and then also add in another 50% "cycle low" buy (which was my intention all along at the beginning.)

    (My gold futures position was steady and I never bought or sold through any of it.)

    The mistakes, churning, and thrash trading during the week cost me 7-10% of peak net worth, approx.

    I could have done better, clearly. I would have substantially reduced that churning loss if I had kept more to certain rules I follow, but like I said -it happens sometimes.

    Anyway, as someone else said earlier the losses are already receeding and I've made back much of that already. My position was increased on the dip (at a cost though) and I have a stops at various places that I can live with (and will still leave me with substantial gain on the chance we DO collapse down below last tuesday's point.)

    I'm approx 7x-8x in holdings, gold and silver futures, with stops getting me out if we go below tuesday's lows (and some higher stops on silver.)

    If we go up instead of down, as we mostly expect, then it will be a party.

    But, wow, what a week though.

    ReplyDelete
  158. TZ(4404),

    Your nerves must be shot! Did you end up getting any sleep last week? :)

    ReplyDelete
  159. Rob,

    Well, clearly it was one heck of a week for all of us. I slept with one eye open (only a half joke. I have a laptop next to my bed with a 1min screensaver. I tap the touchpad to light it up and see markets, then roll over again).

    But, before gary trys to chime in with some 'leverage kills' statements, let me reiterate that the losses were mostly caused by mistakes on my part. 7-10% lost. The account didn't blow up, etc.

    I was just trying to navigate a pretty crazy time and did fine. Had everything gone south my stops were set so that I'd keep about a 66% gain from 7 weeks ago. Hardly a disaster.

    Furthermore, the action of last week actually helped me refine an additional trading technique which I will use in the future. Had I used it last week, there would have been a SINGLE (or maybe two) trade in silver and everything else would have held.

    So...that's how it went. All is ok. But, No, I didn't sleep (or post) much and it was a crazy ride.

    ReplyDelete
  160. TZ(4404), it was a crazy week last week. Like you, was on the puter all day and night. worry, worry, worry, check, check check, doze, doze, doze, check, check, check, worry, worry, worry. LOL It was a ride!

    ReplyDelete
  161. I must say that with people freaking out over the recent dip, I was not easy to pull the trigger to add.

    But thanks to Gary's coaching, I managed muster the courage to add about 20% more to my portfolio. I added at silver spot 33.9, 34.3 and 35.1. My heart was in my mouth. This is the most I have ever invested in anything before!

    Boy what a beautiful sight to behold that swing low in gold :-)

    ReplyDelete
  162. When I say I lost "7-10%" what I mean is that using the same account positions from two weeks ago (before japan thing) (my silver position is actually higher now), that...

    IF.. gold and silver rallied BACK UP to the exact SAME highs before the decline started($36.71 on silver and $1444 gold) ...then...

    my net worth would be 7-10% LESS than it was COMPARED TO the FIRST time we were at those numbers.

    That is the cost of my mistakes and whipsaw trading last week.

    My gains since we started end of Jan are still very high, but now MINUS that amount. (But my silver is now higher, so if we continue up I overperform.)

    ReplyDelete
  163. To give an idea, I'm saying "7-10%" loss because my execution statements last week are a mess. All kinds of trades with different basis over multiple days with various profits and losses.

    I'm eyeballing the loss to mention here because, frankly, I don't want to try and figure it out through all the paperwork.

    ReplyDelete
  164. Gary's comments helped the situation. I will agree.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Most definately, he has to keep our heads on our shoulders. Glad he is a good guide through these mines.

    ReplyDelete
  166. The idea of not selling at a cycle low was a big help. And now that we have moved our stops up, that is a real relief!

    ReplyDelete
  167. Are we good with those stops? I worry cause I saw on my one system bar tab for bid at $134.56 from Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  168. ease,

    I use a mental stop with spot gold 1382. I had a bad experience with using GLD as a trigger as TZ might attest :-)

    I set a price alert for spot gold at 1382 (I do this using forex pair XAUUSD). I also set another alert about $20 before that.

    ReplyDelete
  169. Gary, I have been following you for a few weeks now.

    I just sold about 40% of my silver miners ... until last Friday I was 100% in silver miners, with First Majestic, Great Panther and Fortuna Silver my biggest holdings.

    I am very bullish on silver, but I fear the mining stocks will be hammered when the overall stock market drops, just like back in 2008.

    Yet I see you are bearish on the general stock market yet bullish on mining stocks.

    Why do you think this time will be different?

    Many other silver investors I know are ligthening up or selling ALL of their mining stocks becuase they think it's too risky to be in the stock market right now ... even with silver stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  170. RA, I worry that it is too close and don't want to close out of my positions. Are we moving up tomorrow from Fridays close?

    ReplyDelete
  171. Eae,

    GLD is also trading on the Singapore Exchange which just closed (dual listed). The intraday low was 138.95.

    So not sure why your system showed 134.56.

    Although during US premarket hours, buyers may just put in bids at low prices hoping to get lucky. Maybe that is what you are seeing.

    ReplyDelete
  172. RA, thanks, I can go to sleep now.
    Fidelity told me that stops for GLD itself would be on the bid not on the last with market orders, so that had me worried seeing that figure in my order bar from Friday.

    ReplyDelete
  173. TZ

    Would be interesting to see how much difference it would be if you used a lower leverage and remained constant in the market rather than jumping into the front and back.

    Then you'd get some sleep too

    ReplyDelete
  174. so on the futures we had a 6ish dollar gap up .. does that kind of stuff get filled?

    ReplyDelete
  175. Great weekend report and blog post, thanks Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  176. This article at safehaven wants to say gold is going loer, bud hedges a bit.



    "Since last November, the index has been in a broad but incomplete sideways consolidation which could result in some additional downside action. The daily indicators were showing some negative divergence at the top and have, since then, turned down. The weekly indicators are far more negative which is the reason why the current consolidation could easily result in an intermediate correction."



    http://www.safehaven.com/article/20337/market-turning-points-weekend-report

    As Gary points out, this is why chartist gets this wrong. Once they realize they are wrong, they will have to chase ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  177. gotta,
    You just learned a valuable lesson.
    You let your emotions cause you to sell at the bottom of a daily cycle.

    Hopefully you won't make that mistake twice.

    08 was a very special situation. The credit markets were imploding. That caused panic selling in everything. The odds of something like that happening again in the next 50 years are pretty slim.

    Barring that the miners will follow gold just like they did in early 08. The stock market was already well into the bear market but precious metals and miners were making new all time highs.

    ReplyDelete
  178. With Stocks showing a strong opening and the PM's strong, I thought perhaps SLW might have a strong open as well. Am I seeing this correct.... +3.9%? If true, our SLW calls are going to have an unbelievable day!

    ReplyDelete
  179. Poly,

    I'm curious if you've started to think about potential deep OTM "lottery" plays as as the C tops out? I stuck my toe in that pool with some of the coal stocks when they ran in 2007. Limited funds, some success.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  180. Hi Gary, i understand that the stock market and USD has recently become decoupled, however im seeing the short side of the market as the "easy" trade. March is typically a very bullish time for stocks into mid to late may, I think we could see the dollar and stocks inverse correlation re-establish itself with stocks to move to new highs. Do you agree?

    ReplyDelete
  181. Pressure,
    March is only bullish if an intermediate low has been put in like it was in 09. We don't have that now. As a matter of fact the market is now in a confirmed intermediate decline.

    There will be oversold rallies but the trend is down. We will soon be dealing with a dollar crisis on top of everything else, so no I seriously doubt stocks are going to make new highs.

    One would be better off selling into overbought conditions. A tag of the 50 DMA will probably be sold aggressively by the market. And if it can get above that any approach of the 1330 level will most likely turn the market back down.

    Unfortunately this is how bear markets keep people riding all the way down. They rally just enough to get ones hopes up before the fundamentals drag it back down.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Hi Gary, many thanks for the response, some good points.

    ReplyDelete
  183. Gary,

    I'll take your burrito bet on an equity intermediate low being in either now or by the first week of April. My methodology for intermediate equity cycles differs from the standard studies due to some techniques I developed/discovered while performing my cycle studies.

    As far as gold and the dollar, our views are congruent, except that I am on guard for potentially seeing a final dollar low in early summer. It just depends on how the dollar behaves out of the next daily low. A particularly strong bounce could mark a new intermediate cycle, pushing the final low out one more cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  184. Doc,
    OK you got a bet. I think stocks are on day 17 in the daily cycle with an intermediate cycle bottom due around late April.

    You think the intermediate bottom is already in with the recent selloff and stocks are going to new highs.

    LOL we are now on exact opposite sides of the fence than where we were last year.

    ReplyDelete
  185. The SPX has more than doubled in the last two years in one of the most powerful bull market advances in history and just like that we are going enter a bear market again? We have a healthy 7% correction and now the top is in? I'll take new 52-week highs soon for $500, Alex. Jeez.

    ReplyDelete
  186. I think you might want to spend some time with the charts fro 66-82 and the Nikkei from 92-2000.

    I keep warning people that these big long term cycles just don't fail. The next 4 year cycle low is due sometime in 2012. In a secular bear market that means the next leg down. Those last on average about a year and a half.

    We are now running out of time for the decline to begin. (I think it probably already has).

    So far everyone who has bet against these big cycles has lost. I certainly wouldn't want to bet against a cycle as big and powerful as the 4 year cycle in stocks. I wouldn't even bet against the current intermediate cycle. The trend is clearly down. Stocks are making lower lows and lower highs.

    Smart money trades the trend. They will be looking for levels to sell. It's usually only emotional retail traders that consistently try to fight the trend.

    ReplyDelete
  187. This guy is seeing the start of a decline:


    Stock Trend Seriously Damaged
    by Robert W. Colby


    S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,279.20) rose 5.48 points or 0.43% on Friday. SPX has retraced less than one-third of its 7.07% intraday decline from its 1,344.07 peak set on 2/18/11. Charles Dow and his followers considered one-third to two-thirds countertrend retracements to be normal within a trend. On Wednesday, 3/16/11, SPX broke down below 12-week lows, confirmed by the great majority of indexes and indicators. SPX and the other major indexes remain below 50-day simple moving averages. The intermediate-term trend appears to have been seriously damaged.

    ReplyDelete
  188. This is on Friday, March 18, 2011 from Mark Arbiter, S&P's chief technical analyst:
    "We think it was also very telling this week that the U.S. dollar was not the place where investors sought shelter during difficult times. In our opinion, the dollar had every excuse in the world to rally over the past couple of weeks, and not only didn't rally, but fell to its lowest level since November. The U.S. Dollar Index is now in danger of breaking key chart support just below 76, which, in our view, opens the door for a steepening slide down to the 2008 bear market lows in the 70/71 region. This could have extremely bullish implications for commodities, in our view, and, could send inflation spiralling higher. Eventually, that would likely not be good for equity prices.

    As markets stabilized and the greenback continued lower, it appears to us that the pullback in gold and silver prices is over. We believe this worked off some overbought momentum readings, and set the metals up for another run to the upside. If the U.S. Dollar Index rolls over, as we expect, we think there could be quite a rally in gold and silver prices, as well as other commodities. We estimate gold could rise up toward long-term trend line resistance in the $1,800/oz. zone and we see silver prices testing their all-time highs up near $50/oz."

    ReplyDelete
  189. Interesting open for the dollar

    ReplyDelete
  190. Gary, I agree smart money would be looking to sell. Right now they are not. Selling pressure hit record lows a few weeks ago. You don't want to see that around a potential top!

    Also, we do not have significant lower highs or lower lows on an intermediate or longer-term time frame. We are in a correction right now, so of course you'll see them on a ST time frame.

    ReplyDelete
  191. this morning I got to experience what catbird must have felt when he got the notice that scottrade had sold short AGQ in his account...

    My position statement is showing a stock I do not own (SVMFF - "Silvercorpt Metals Inc Ord") with zeros in all columns (like number of shares, etc.), but with a LOSS of $10,000 in the P/L Day column!

    I do own SVM and the numbers are correct for that stock. I looked up SVMFF and there's not even a stock by those letters.

    My account is with TOS. Seems like whenever they do an update to the software, something goes awry.

    I think once the C wave is done I will open an account with IB and move the funds from this TOS account to IB.

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.