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Wednesday, March 23, 2011

BREAKOUT IMMINENT

How many times have we heard this one? The miners are lagging. It's a sign that gold is topping.  

Absolute baloney!

The miners aren't lagging, they are consolidating in an extremely bullish triangle continuation pattern.


I said in the Tuesday report that the miners would probably test the upper trend line this week and maybe even breakout. We may get that test as early as tomorrow.

Folks this is now moving into the momentum stage. During this phase of the C-wave we will see gold and silver grind higher day after day. It's not unusual to see the metals rise at a 70 or even 80% clip (7-8 days out of 10 are up days) during the final two daily cycles up in the parabolic blow off top that always unfolds as a C-wave comes to an end. 

The momentum phase is just now starting. 

1,192 comments:

  1. just as you post about imminent breakout, gold and silver moving on up ;)

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  2. First!
    Heh... juvenile..
    Gary, is the timeline still latter half of Aprtil?

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  3. Gary,

    Not to beat a dead horse, but even Tim Knight's chart of silver (on his blog today) shows the spike in 1980 to be $42. What gives?

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  4. Given that miners have been lagging silver, I am considering adding more SIL.

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  5. Mikey,
    Yes I'm lying silver only made it to $42 in 1980. I just wanted to see if you would believe me.

    Now do you feel better?






    It went a little above $50 by the way.

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  6. Gary,

    Been on the site, but cannot locate a recommendation list or positions. Is there one?

    Working my way thru previous missives. Like being in college again!

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  7. SD Jack ... positions are typically only mentioned at the bottom of weekend reports.

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  8. All new people,
    welcome to the greatest show on earth.

    All K-1 filers, chill. Just study what you need to do or consult a taxidermist...

    I can tell the new people about my story(snore, snore ).
    3/10ish/2010 I found Gary's site through a friend of a friend, Tim Knight's site and my friends site both had Gary listed. I was a trader then. I lost 1/3 of my IRA retirement and the wife said I was hooked to the computer and sadistically lazy. Well shoot, She whipped me and made me feel CHEEP.
    I jointed a men convent, with a few women they graciously allowed, and now I am a winner. I can tie my own shoes too!

    Truth: I stopped shorting and fast trading and started SLOWLY reading and ASKING questions to the board here. From day one (1) other members helped me out. I did buy into the long position for gold and silver, trusting, from GARY, that the BULL would correct any ill-placed entry.

    That last line above is critical in this writing. I openly accepted the writing of another human person, saying that I trust your knowledge and judgment. VERY HEAVY STUFF...Yes, the fine print says - invest at own risk,,,pride, etc.. I do see the logic and I DO ACCEPT THE RISK.
    Am I ahead after one whole year? Yes. will I continue to make money? It's a risk we all must accept or not accept.

    Welcome all of you new people and I hope that you will grow in knowledge from Gary and this board.

    Good luck to everyone, whether we are new members or are longtime followers.

    Best,
    Tom

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  9. Gary,

    I'm not trying to challenge you or aggravate anybody... I just want to make sure that all the bolts are tightened on our rocket ship to 50. :)

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  10. Gary,

    I thought it might have been a mistake when you said 70 to 80 percent but it seems not after your free post tonight.

    Are you saying 70% from a lower area of from here at $36? From here it would be closer to $60, not $50.

    Thanks

    Rodney

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  11. Hot Rod,
    The way I read it is that the final days have 60-70% day-over-day gains.

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  12. Mr. M,
    Correct. A 70% clip means 7 out of 10 days will be up days.

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  13. New Folks, I was still trying to make up from losses from 2008 (Emerging Markets Eastern Europe). was making some money on Gold last year and I lit up. Then I found Gary, the best Gold/Silver guide you will find on the internet. I dumped all my other news services and trade alerts as they couldn't compare to Gary's insight and knowledge and patience to guide us along. Welcome all New Subs (Subscribers -took me a while to learn I was a Sub.)

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  14. Gary,
    I guess you missed my question at the top, we're still looking at the latter part of Aptil timeline... trip to Vegas the first week.. wife.. don't want to be glued to the screen.
    And, dollar index a concern?

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  15. Nothing has changed that I can see.

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  16. Excellent.
    We hope it is warmer then but not too warm.

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  17. Mikey ... maybe this clears it up for you ... the $50 was an intraday high ... it never actually closed at $50 ... on the very same day it hit $50 it closed at $42.

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  18. Avann... Yes, that makes sense.

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  19. An intraday reversal from $50 to $42 ... that would not be (will not be?) fun to endure.

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  20. Seems like every pundit on CNBC has a $50 target for silver.

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  21. So, about the K-1, if you had AGQ in an IRA, are there special tax issues? I had looked at MLPs at one point but decided against those because the can generate taxes that have to be paid even in an IRA. I have AGQ in another IRA account.

    Thanks for the help.

    Elaine

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  22. avven
    good point, i wonder if silver will get a $8 blowoff top this c wave =)

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  23. Gary,

    Just an FYI - Tim Knight gave you a shout out on his board today (mucho respecto) and posted here earlier today.

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  24. Thanks Poly for pointing out in earlier post that this is a secular bull market for gold/silver (unlike the 1980s) and hence, cycles analysis may be more effective this time for mitigating sudden collapses.

    I feel better now!

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  25. Gary,

    not sure if this has any weight or not but with everything going on in japan and the slow down and shut down of many companies that produce products there, will this affect the demand and supply of silver? I remembering reading that the demand (around 820+ mill) will outstrip the supply (around 700+ mill)because silver is put into everything we buy. With the shut down in companies in japan, will the supply start to increase over the demand and affect the price of silver?

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  26. Silver will follow gold into the C-wave top.

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  27. Hey Gary, looking at the $USD...isn't that swing low on the daily? Thanks.

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  28. The only time a swing has any meaning is when it potentially forms a cycle low. It's still too early in the cycle for this swing to signal a cycle low. The odds are this is just one of those meaningless swings that happen all the time.

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  29. Bob,

    I received the K-1 for AGQ that had an income component (not my gain but their income) that was more than my realized gain for the year! And I'm sure I never received a distribution as the gold/silver ETFs don't make distributions. I sent everything to my accountant tonight and will report back tomorrow on what he says.

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  30. Yash, I think you are right. I read the AGQ prospectus wrong.

    Good night all, have silver dreams.

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  31. Gary:

    Any thoughts on Emerging Market indices over the next year or 2? Decoupling from the SPX? or following the SPX into another bear market?

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  32. It seams silver has led the way a lot in the run up we have had.
    Could silver also lead out of the top first
    Feeling fat again by the way

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  33. Gary,
    I see your point in sticking to SIL. I owned MGN last month and sold on strength around 3.80. Two or three days later they announced a private offering. MGN fell to 2.30ish. I got lucky on that one.

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  34. Thanks Gary...Reason I asked is the liquidity pumped by central banks could find its way to commodities and high growing emerging markets than an anemic growth US economy

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  35. Mikey,

    I personally remember silver reaching the 50 level in '80.

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  37. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  39. its 5:30est and silver is up! nothing else needs to be said.

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  40. yesterday was a rather good day was it not ;)

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  41. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  42. Gary

    I could not find anything on stock market in last nights report.
    What is your take on stock market now? I mean have you changed your view of EXTREMLY LEFT transalated cycle (as opposed to Doc's cycle count and guess on IT Low). Dollar is giving up gains (as expected), crude is rallying (as expected) BUT market is showing good STRENGTH? I would appreciate your inputs as i feel we are close to the moment of truth.

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  43. No haven't changed anything. The pattern of lower lows and lower highs is still intact.

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  44. Gary, you have mentioned b/f that you would be worried that the dollar could rally if dollar bears reached extreme bearish sentiment. My wire service(IFR/Reuters) has dollar bulls at just 9% for 1 month out(their lowest reading in years). Whose sentiment numbers do you look at?

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  45. David,
    Sentiment trade has the public opinion poll at 26% bulls. This level can be maintained for months with minor releases of pressure during dead cat bounces at daily cycle lows.

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  46. Gary,

    What do we need to know about the K1 issue with AGQ? Any special tax considerations we should know about. Thanks as always.

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  47. I just turn all that stuff over to my accountant, so I can't help you on that one.

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  48. Good enough. Some of the others will be reporting back when they hear from their accountants. Thanks.

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  49. Poly,

    If you are right about the couple of up days and the half cycle pause. Then $40 would be a good half cycle pause. It is a big round number and if it reaches it in 2-3 days with the strong moves you are expecting, we would be around day 10. That's smack in the middle of half a cycle.

    So what happens after the half cycle low Poly?

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  50. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  51. Equities will outperform miners and metal prices. They have the last 2 years and they will continue to do so in any C-wave advance.

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  52. Gary,

    Can silver continue to rise without gold's support? It seems that gold gets beaten back pretty easily when it attempts to breakout.

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  53. Gallo, AGQ is a Limited Partnership. There are special tax implications compared to equities. It is very possible you could lose money in your position and get stuck with a hefty tax bill. They are not immune from tax free accounts either. I avoid MLP's & LP's at all costs.

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  54. Gold being as ridiculous at 1440 as silver was at 36

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  55. AGQ k-1 info

    http://www.proshares.com/volatility_commodity_currency_proshares_taxation_faqs.html

    I have to believe it isn't substantial as the profits and losses should be baked into daily price.

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  56. I love this talk about the euro collapse now in the mainstream media, taking the focus off the dollar.

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  57. Interesting article on the possible comex default...

    http://dont-tread-on.me/36-silver-the-banksters-waterloo/

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  58. Great Panther Silver To Sell 5M Shares At C$4.20 Each >GPR.T 03/24 08:57 AM

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  59. Bad start on my SPX short. I will cut some off quick as I love small losses (and hate moderate-sized ones). The signal works best when it starts off right away. If I sell 1/2 the SDS and we wind up dropping later, and i break even, no harm. I don;t mind missing a possible profit but do mind taking larger losses. (I wish I could figure out how to tweak the sells so they become as good as the buys).

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  60. Sorry, the link didn't go thru on my iPhone.

    Here is the info on the site and then links to this page and the FAQ where it is explained.

    If someone got a K-1 - would you please share the amount per share (gain or loss) that they are hitting you with?

    Thanks.

    Rodney
    -----------------------------------
    Since this fund is treated as a partnership for tax purposes an investor’s allocated portion of any income, gains, losses and deductions is reported on a Schedule K-1. That means investors do not receive a Form 1099-DIV. For more information, please read FAQs on Commodity and Currency ProShares Taxation.

    No distributions have been made for this fund.


    All ETFs are required by the IRS to distribute substantially all of their income and capital gains to shareholders at least annually. For specific tax advice, we recommend you seek advice from a qualified tax professional.
    --------------------------------------

    http://www.proshares.com/funds/agq_distributions.html

    http://www.proshares.com/volatility_commodity_currency_proshares_taxation_faqs.html

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  61. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  62. "Brian said...
    Great Panther Silver To Sell 5M Shares At C$4.20 Each >GPR."

    hope slw not going to do the same thing??

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  63. Sorry, the link didn't go thru on my iPhone (and gets truncated after I click on "publish" - I swear).

    Here is the info on the site and then links to this page and the FAQ where it is explained.

    If someone got a K-1 - would you please share the amount per share (gain or loss) that they are hitting you with?

    Thanks.

    Rodney
    -----------------------------------
    Since this fund is treated as a partnership for tax purposes an investor’s allocated portion of any income, gains, losses and deductions is reported on a Schedule K-1. That means investors do not receive a Form 1099-DIV. For more information, please read FAQs on Commodity and Currency ProShares Taxation.

    No distributions have been made for this fund.


    All ETFs are required by the IRS to distribute substantially all of their income and capital gains to shareholders at least annually. For specific tax advice, we recommend you seek advice from a qualified tax professional.
    --------------------------------------

    http://www.proshares.com/funds/agq_distributions.html

    Here is the key and faulty link....
    I am splitting it into 3 - you have to concatenate.

    (part 1) http://www.proshares.com/volatility_

    (part 2) commodity_currency_proshares_

    (part 3) taxation_faqs.html

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  64. For whoever is researching the K-1 tax issue. This from ETFdaily News

    http://etfdailynews.com/blog/2010/10/17/the-tax-implications-of-etfs-and-etns-gld-uso-spy-slv/

    Another form of commodity ETFs that are taxed at an unfriendly rate are grantor trusts which hold physical metals, like the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV). These funds are deemed as collectibles by the IRS and taxed at 28%. *On the bright side, they do not generate realized capital gains or interest income.*

    I have seen so many conflicting stories on this!

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  65. Thanks for posting info on K1 issue.

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  66. ddn3f,
    $40 would be a dream to hit by then, but no action.

    With all my lottery plays, I'm going for gold! I'm not selling out at 300% profit to watch it hit 1,500% 2 weeks later. We picked these lottery's because they have a "calculated" shot at a big pay day. So I will ride these to expiration or if I feel we've topped a daily cycle, like last cycle lottery) will try to dump at the top.

    I might take 100 of 300 off the table @ $0.60 to pay for lottery. Still hoping for around $2 out of these, but wont be surprised to get $3.50, but more than prepared to lose it all.

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  67. A question to the blog.

    What happens if silver leads the charge and hits our price target well in advance of a final gold parabolic move? Ie say silver hits $50, while gold is still hovering around not finished its grind to its top. Normally silver shouldn't correct while gold grinds higher, but silver is very volatile.

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  68. Keys, I would say that price is simply a prediction or guide, nothing says it can not go much higher (or lower), we would still be following Gary's cycle analysis.

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  69. Poly and Keys: I believe there is no cycle that will help us at the top as they only time bottoms. We'll have some general idea as to timing because a bottom will be due in so-and-so many days, but I suspect Gary will just have us sell into the coming froth. That's why he says he always sells early. Especially if we start blowing off cycles can become distorted. Gary, is that right?

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  70. Poly,

    I meant $40 silver by the half cycle pause. That looks doable at this point if you are right with 2-3 days of strong moves. I will hold until we think the daily cycle has topped.

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  71. Haven't sold any SDS yet, as SPX often opens at the high on a gap. Itchy trigger finger, though.

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  72. You're right DG, fully aware that cycles work on lows.
    But for this purposes, they still serve as a great guide to picking a top. If it's late in the timing band for a cycle low and we start to spike (typical top) that would be out sign to dump.

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  73. Alex, DG and all

    what r u all doing with your GPL shares?

    Down more than 6% due to dilution

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  74. @ddn3f,

    I know that's what you meant. It would be very nice and certainly possible ($2.30 not much the way she moves), but was trying to saying that it wouldn't be actionable, for me. Got to resist any temptation to cash them :)

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  75. I intend to hedge out my positions during the D-wave, as previously mentioned on this blog. Gary has been too bang on for me to ignore.

    My scenario becomes a what happens if...silver really really takes off fast, and is so stretched beyond gold's pace that the reasonable thing for it to do would be for it to correct or consolidate. But in this scenario gold is clearly not done in its move upwards.

    If we get to that point, we get to it I guess…but I think this scenario has a probability attached to it.

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  76. archrival,
    I think you might want to check the batteries in your calculator. At the recent top the S&P was up slightly more than 100% from the 09 bottom and still well below all time highs. Anyone who got caught and held through the bear market is still deeply underwater.

    Miners on the other hand are up almost 300% and considerably above their 07 highs.

    The general stock market isn't even in the same ball park as mining stocks.

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  77. Archival
    Oh come on now, have you been here before.?
    Me I only change my picture !
    Are Gary,s sums right and yours too?

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  78. anybody buy GPL today or wait?

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  79. DG (and anyone else who knows anything about K-1),

    Do you know whether the K-1 tax issues would apply to positions that you have/had in an IRA?

    All other tax related implications you can pretty much ignore if it occurred in an IRA, but this K-1 stuff is new to me.

    Get rid of the damn tax code and the IRS!!!! For income tax, do what Andy Rooney drew on a chalk board decades ago:

    A) HOW MUCH DID YOU MAKE?
    B) HOW MUCH DID YOU SPEND TO MAKE A?
    C) YOUR INCOME (A - B)
    D) TAX: 15% OF LINE C

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  80. @Fat Boy,

    WOW you got fat quickly!

    What are you going to do by mid April? That will be a scary.

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  81. Well, this can't be good for the dollar

    Two years ago, George Soros said he wanted to reorganize the entire global economic system. In two short weeks, he is going to start - and no one seems to have noticed.
    On April 8, a group he's funded with $50 million is holding a major economic conference and Soros's goal for such an event is to "establish new international rules" and "reform the currency system."


    http://www.mrc.org/bmi/commentary/2011/Unreported_Soros_Event_Aims_to_Remake_Entire_Global_Economy.html

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  82. Pima,

    A Schedule K-1 is a tax information form listing a taxpayer's share of income generated by an investment in a partnership. As one of the many benefits of an Individual Retirement Account (IRA) is the tax-deferral on all income generated in the account, you might be surprised if you receive a year-end K-1, which lists items such as taxable income and capital gains. Fortunately, in most cases, the tax-deferred status of your IRA is intact, and you do not need to report K-1 information on your IRA investments.

    Source: TurboTax.

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  83. Guys and Gals, Because they are set up as Limited Partnerships, securities such as AGQ, UNG, UUP, et al, report at the end of the year on a K-1 as opposed to a 1099. Usually on the 1st page there is a list of what you report, and if not, it will be on actual K-1. There is no big mystery here. Just a different way than you may be used to receiving this information.

    The facts are, this is another way to report, Interest Income, Net Short Term Capital Gains(Losses), Contracts and Straddles(these funds use these to create the leverage), and Dedeuctions for Investment Expenses.

    The K-1 is really NO BIG DEAL.

    As for being treated as collectibles. If they are doing that (I have no information on that yet), it would change your taxable rate on Cap Gains to a max of 28% from a minimum of 15%, although few of us hold long enough to get the minimum rate, so the taxes will be comparable.

    Bottom line for all the hand wringers is, I would not let the tax tail be the wagger of the profit dog. Enjoy your gains, and give Uncle Sam your little piece of the pie.

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  84. Where are all the junior guys? Thoughts on GPL?

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  85. I have been in MLP's for nearly a decade, I find them a great tax advantage vehicle. They are not designed to trade.

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  86. I dont like "i told you so" kind of comments but looking back at my previous comments it would appear tha we have had the bounce and a re seasonally heading into highs in May. Im expecting the miners to hea into some seasonal bearish tendencies towards the end of march, those miners that hold up well will be the prime candidates for adding to the long side ahead of teh correction in equtiies in may. Right now im only concerned with seasonal trading. I believe some of the financials and commodity related stocks (Coffee) also look like they are heading higher into May.

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  87. Poly,

    Thanks! I thought that was the case. I had a couple of piddly ass K-1 numbers, I mean less than $50 each(!) for two small trades I did in my Roth IRA (which is a small account anyway). So I just ignored it figuring if I got audited I'd let the IRS guy figure it out. :-)

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  88. Sorry I had to post "test". I need to do that in order to receive updates on the blog comments. Nice to see silver shining again :o)

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  89. I would never trade seasonality over cycles. Seasonality never wins that battle.

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  90. Fatguy, the link doesn't work.

    What makes Soros the economic god. He needs to be allowed to change things if they're going to be changed. Maybe he will be since some say he's the elite puppet master whose pulling the strings of presidents (and so-called presidents.)

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  91. Gary,
    I've been charting along with you trying to learn as much as I can about cycle analysis. Are there any books or resources out there that you recommend to get a better understanding of this topic?

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  92. Hui is testing the trendline I mentioned in this post today. I expect we will see a breakout either tomorrow or early next week.

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  93. Maybe this is just gap filling

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  94. PST,
    I really don't know of any. The best I can do is tell you to study the terminology document.

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  95. Steven

    How much more gain showed on k-1 than your actual gain?

    someone also mentioned that daily prices will be baked with gain/loss. I think thats why over period of entire year its not very high gain per share. 2009 has 21 dollars per share. but since we hold only in profitable period of year, its possible in those months agq partnetship also shows large gain and so tax bill will increase. I still get point that tax bill will be less than hefty gains made but one has to remember there is going to be more tax that you would have paid on actual trading gains.

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  96. Will do. Thanks.

    I guess the best way to learn is to follow along with you and just keep practicing.

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  97. Gary,

    I apologise in advance for any newbie comments, however, isnt seasonal analysis really cyclical analysis on a shorter time frame?

    The cycles that you speak of and the knowledge you have acquired over the years regarding cyclical analysis, do you have any "bibles" that you refer consistenly refer to?

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  98. My CPA basically said to ignore the K-1 for AGQ related to the IRA.

    She was, however, very careful to check that all the gains reported on the K-1 for the personal account matched the short term capital gains already reported on Schedule D.

    A relief since the tax return was completely finished!

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  99. I have my doubts the stock market will be able to get back above the 50 DMA.

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  100. PST,

    There is very little info out there...I tried searching a while back.

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  101. Dilution of GPL is disappointing, but as I see it, the setback is only temporary, and the damage is done.

    I'm holding onto all of my shares.

    Merde
    Le Fou

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  102. Cycles really have nothing to do with seasonal tendencies. Cycles are about human emotions. Those tend to have set timing bands where they run out of steam.

    That happens regardless of seasonality.

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  103. By the way, anyone know why gold/silver often sees selling pressure everyday around 11:00 EST. I know that you sometimes see it around 1:00-1:30 because of the Comex close, but am unsure why my limit orders always get hit around 11:00.

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  104. My AGQ K-1 only has entries in the Short Term Capital Gains box and the Other Income box (attributed to the contracts and straddles to create the leverage)

    The Master Limited Partnerships (MLP's) are income generators intended for long term holdings as BLH mentioned as opposed to what we do with AGQ. In that case BLH would have the box for Long Term Capital Gains filled in, along with any other gains or losses.

    On my form AGQ does NOT have the collectibles box filled in, so AGQ IS NOT treated as a collectible. It is taxed at normal Cap Gains rates.

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  105. Gary
    thanks for the comments. Sounds like i should start reading up on cycles, it took me probably 1 year to realise that technicals were geared against the public players, even proprietary indicators have limited functionality. Thats when i got into seasonal tendencies with decent success. However im becoming more interested in cycle analysis. Would the "terminology document" be available to subscribers?

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  106. PST,

    it could be because europe closes around 11 or 11:30.

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  107. New York,

    I just picked up some GPL. Since we are early enough in daily cycle and GPL has been a leader since the IT low, I like the risk reward here. Will add more as if rises from here or cut it if it closes below the 10d MA.

    *But obviously you need to make your own decisions

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  108. Gary,

    I noticed HUI poking slightly above the TL today too.

    Note that GDX, whose chart is very close to the same chart as HUI, broke clearly above that TL today.

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  109. Thank you to everyone who clarified the K-1 question. I appreciate the help.

    Best,

    Elaine

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  110. Brian,

    Can you let us know what the K-1 taxable amounts are per share so you don't have to give us the total amount?

    Just take the total and divide.

    Or, can you let us know how substantial it was?

    Thanks a lot.

    Rodney

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  111. Dollar dump.

    And thanks for the K1 advice/clarification.

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  112. Pressur

    Sign up, go through the old archives and old blogs .
    Nugets are everywhere

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  113. Only a buck from all time highs!

    Once free it ain't looking back.

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  114. Gary

    What would be the next logical place for silver to either correct / take a breather? Would this be the half-cycle and, if so, when would that happen? If not then any other thoughts on when we could expect a breather or correction?

    Thanks

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  115. There are hundreds of non mining equities that have blown away the best gold stock over the last 24 months. You changed the parameters with your silly buy and hold arguement. Buy and hold has been dead for years.

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  116. silver futures over $38

    gold new all time high $1448.60

    :-)

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  117. BREAK OUT!!!!!!!

    Strap in tight!

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  118. Gary,

    One more question. I understand that the cycles are driving this move. However, do you think there is also perhaps a short squeeze going on at the same time and is that what usually happens during this last phase of the C wave?

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  119. Maybe at $40 unless it happens with still a lot of time left in the daily cycle then I would expect it to trade through it.

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  120. Thanks. What do you consider alot of time left in the daily cycle?

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  121. Hotrod, Anybody can easily figure their rate. Dollars out minus dollars in divided by number of shares. Your tax rate on the gain will generally be the highest Sam has due to the short term nature of this holding. This can be anywhere from 0 to 35% depending on your other total income.

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  122. Seems like the cycle is now in full swing. Yesterday they were building positions, TODAY they are panicking for positions.

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  123. Do people on this board recommend having significant exposure to physical gold and silver in addition to paper? Obviously not as liquid during corrections but does provide some peace of mind in a worst case scenario.

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  124. archrival, Did you just come over here to pick a fight?

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  125. Brian,

    So for AGQ, we don't get a statement from the Brokerage in January for Tax filing - we wait until we get the K-1?

    I'm more confused after your last post.

    I thought the K-1 was a form in addition to the normal sales reporting.

    Thanks.

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  126. Yash, and all. I just opened my Proshare K-1 (received yesterday)and my short term gains from last year matched my Schwab Cap gain.

    So a wash for me. There was no distibutions.

    Look at box L, cap contributed plus cap gains match the withdrawls.

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  127. On the same chart posted by Gary I see an IHS which is just reaching the neck line. It is about to breakout!
    Does anyone else sees what I see?

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  128. Whom ever mentioned AG, what a rocket:)Thx

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  129. Brian, I'm a lover not a fighter!

    For the record, I am in agreement with Gary with gold/silver.

    My disagreement comes with the arguement that miners and pm's are the only place to be. I have traded both over the last 2 years and have had much greater success with tech stocks than miners.

    As for the general market I think it will rise with gold in this C wave. I'm sure there will be a point when they decouple, just not now, imo. This is coming from someone that remains extremely bearish this economy and eventually the stock market again, but not until QE 2 has run its course.

    Hope you guys welcome alternate views, if not say the word, I'll disappear. I'm not a beanie, et al.

    GL

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  130. PST-

    You'll get mixed opinions on holding physical. I personally do, but there are a lot of smart people on this board who do not.

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  131. You should only see a difference from your K-1 and your 1009 from your brokerif;

    you did not sell and the ETF had a distribution.

    Divvies should be picked up on your broker statement, as well.

    Box L should show your delta and your tax obligation.

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  132. Jeff,

    Might just do that, thanks for the heads up

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  133. Options question for the Gary and the board:

    I'm holding SLW June calls at various strikes DITM ($35, $36, $40). I'm up 75-200% + on them. Since it's SLW, liquidity is good, so getting out at a decent price is not an issue.

    In light of the anticipated blast off, should I stay with these positions, or roll all or part of them up to a higher strike at the same expiration? I could also roll them out to September, but I'm not sure there would be an advantage to that since the C-wave should be over long before. With the wind at our backs, I'm thinking now would be the time to add a bit more risk.

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  134. Ugh. This tax stuff bums me out...Makes my eyes bleed trying to figure out all this crap.


    I was looking at that I H&S too Micheal. Not sure where to put a neckline and I would look at the Nov/Dec zone as the Rt shoulder. Regardless, once it breaks up that sucker should run hard.

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  135. Hotrod, You are correct. The K-1 is a separate report. Most similar to a 1099.

    My broker does not include my Cap Gains from these securities on their 1099. Hence the K-1

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  136. Bob Loves,

    I thought if the K-1 showed anything, which mine did not, that this would be what is taxable.

    Now, I am below 59.5 so this maybe
    something I will need to know when I reach that mark and have to declare cap-gains... I am sorry if I said this is a non-issue. I guess age may be a factor. I hear it stinks getting older...

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  137. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  138. Archrival: Alternate views are always welcomed here. Just...
    1. Offer the alternate view with respect for Gary/us
    2. Give reasons for it and be precise
    3. Don't repeat your position over and over
    4. Have a reason for posting Shouting ("We're goona zoom!" is not a reason for posting)

    The only guys who get run out of town are the obnoxious ones or who show up to gloat every time they are right for five minutes. Fair enough? [I have to say even the name "Archrival" sounds like you are looking to pick a fight.]

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  139. I'm giddy. Is it wrong that I want this C wave to be over with already so that I can get in at the bottom of the A this time, instead of half way through the C?

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  140. Tudor-

    I have June 35s and 40s as well...and this morning had an order loaded to add more but just couldn't push 'enter'. I was looking at June 45s...wish I'd done it!

    In my view, higher strikes might be OK, but I'm fairly conservative, so I would try to stay lower than where I expect the move to end...plus i'd try to sell while the price is still rising. September might just cost you more.

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  141. Jayhawk,

    Yes I also see the left shoulder formed in Nov-Dec and the right is forming in March. About 50 point from head to the neck. Target of 50 points from $580?

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  142. Tudor, I do that alot. But I do it to take money off the table.

    For me, I am taking money off the table NLT Tuesday and set a buy stop on my next trade and walk it down into the daily cycle low. Rolling April to May. September puts you in the teeth of the D wave, I imagine.

    Remember pressure comes off the shorts by Tuesday, which ties beautifully to the half cycle high.

    Anyway my thoughts.

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  143. Archrival,

    According to the screener on FINVIZ.com number 4 performer of all 6762 issues they track was AG, GPL was #6 and AGQ was a respectable #18 with 325% gain. As a holder of AGQ (sold all of my miners and moved everything into AGQ some months ago) I would like to know how I could have done better holding any other basket of equities. Have YOU done better than 325% over the last 12 months?

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  144. DG, thanks for the ground rules.

    Don't think I have abused yet.

    I'm from St. Louis, maybe that helps you understand the name.

    Go GOLD and GL!

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  145. Gary

    hope this is not too stupid a question but will you be tempted to sell a small amount of your non-core position when silver takes a breather at $40? You could then get back in at say $36/37 for the next ride up. I'm not suggesting a large trade - perhaps 10-15% of the overall funds invested.

    Thanks for the sub service as well!

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  146. Bob, Tuesday is too soon for a mid cycle high if this is to be RT.

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  147. archrival, No problem for me, but realize you are on a Precious Metal blog. Arguing for tech stocks will not matter to many here. We are for the most part quite comfortable with what we are doing.

    You could do yourself a favor, and pick just about any one of these junior miners from their 2008 low, and I think you will find few tech stock that beat their returns.

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  148. Leo, my first purchase off the bottom was BIDU around $150. Yes I was about $50 late to the party but it now trades at $130 after a 10/1 split. I still hold 25% of those shares.

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  149. Tudor, I am still holding SLW June 30's bought at the Jan low. Currently up 300%. Last cycle a similar play did 1500%. I will hold them until Gary says we should exit. I did add June 41's at the daily cycle low, but I hate to buy calls into strength.

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  150. It is OK if I am early, and if it runs, I will already trigger my May buy stops. The COMEX delivery is Tuesday, and the week following a big run up to delivery sells off.

    Something to keep in mind.

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  151. Brian, Got it! I'll keep my tech thoughts to myself. I hold UXG, what juniors do you like?

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  152. Dollar is barfing up all of yesterday's gains. So glad I'm on the PM train. Primarily in AGQ with some ITM options on SLW and SLV (no SIL or juniors) to get 1.4x leverage (no margin). I plan on unloading the options (or at least selling calls against them to lock in gains) as the risk/reward ratio increases towards the end of the next daily cycle.

    DG, imagine if you'd put those SDS shares in AGQ instead!

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  153. Archrival, that is an interesting tidbit, I made good money on BIDU as well (even though not as much as you did) and I could share with you my successes about the same time with F and AAPL etc.

    The question was though, how did your entire portfolio do over the last year? And what equity basket could have beaten AGQ?

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  154. Tudor,
    I'm in similar options as you - May or June at the latest. I think you'll just take on unnecessary premium rolling out to September. If things change (dollar 3 year cycle low gets pushed out to August) I may consider rolling out to the fall months...
    Mike

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  155. archrival, I have AG, AXU, CDE, EXK, FVITF, GPL, HL, MVG, PZG, SLW, and SVM for silver plays. I spread it out in case of a blowup, which I have had happen. A few jr golds like AAU, GORO, NGD, but mostly silver miners.

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  156. Leo, I have not outperformed AGQ over the last year. But, I have outperformed it over the last 2 years.

    My guess the only basket that could have beaten AGQ would have been a 3X silver vehicle.

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  157. Thanks for the thoughts gang.

    Brian, nice play. Here's hoping for a repeat. I also had a small (3 contracts) position of Jun 31's that I've held from $4 to $15+. The delta was at .90. I just rolled the entire position up to Jun 45's. I think I might roll up about a third of my DITM positions and let the majority of them ride.

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  158. Mike: I am almost never 100% invested and always have some cash or at least margin around (for when things like Japan happen---I did well buying into that). If I don't own more AGQ it's not due to lack of funds, so other trades have no effect on my PM holdings. It's not "either/or."

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  159. I will not pull the trigger until …

    http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/i-will-not-pull-the-trigger-until-%E2%80%A6-11603

    Ok... I can't wait for Larry's followers to jump on Gary Silver's moving C-Train soon. I think it's already happening.

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  160. Archrival, I thought I guess, you are one of those people who enjoy trading for its own sake, as a hobby. I am too lazy for that, I prefer reading books and studying dead languages.

    The beauty of following Gary is that I do not have to trade. Just read my daily updates and occasionally adjust my position(s).

    There are many ways to skin this cat and I prefer the least labor-intensive one.

    GOLD at a new high! This is just the beginning of the ride!!

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  161. I have a friend who has been accumulating silver now for over 3 years. He was not aware of the ABCD pattern, or the cycles the dollar follows. He does not doubt that silver could go to $50 or higher, but does not want to sell his physical silver either. Apparently, he has to pay 6% Kentucky sales tax on it, plus the other tax consequences. Any suggestions on how to best hedge his physical holdings once silver hits $50? I thought about puts, but I suspect the volatility at that time could work against him.

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  162. if hamster posts, i'm sure you will see he has a large amount of physical silver. i personally have 1000 oz and going to keep through the D wave.

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  163. That's prudent and understandable DG. I'm sure you slept a lot better than most here during the last daily cycle as well. Though on the flip side days like the last two are really nice when you are ;)

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  164. Tudor, I am not a skillful trader like a lot of folks here. For options, I try to buy the intermediate low, and let them run the full cycle. Has been a very profitable strategy.

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  165. It sounds like Archrival is just a very poor trader of miners. What have I said time after time?

    Hold don't trade.

    The only time to trade is at intermediate tops and bottoms and even then I only do it with part of my account. I always keep a core position.

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  166. Dude: Just have him short the appropriate amount of SLV or AGQ. He'll make a dollar on the short for every dollar he loses on his physical (he might want to check the tax consequences, though...)

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  167. Archrival,

    I think you miss the point. We don't buy and hold gold or silver.

    We trade gold and silver derivatives. You would be very hard pressed to identify the stocks that could compete with the returns generated from this.

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  168. archrival,
    THE WORD.
    hokas pokas.
    No offense intended.
    I for one just read Gary's comments on this blog. I do not read this blog to get alternate views from other forum members. I am here for a specific reason. Not to chat, but I have done that; so I understand. I know you think that no harm is done, but it can get confusing; and we do not want to be lead astray.

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  169. Gary is one of the most confident & calm trader i have ever seen..I guess he knows what he is doing.

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  170. Hot Rod,

    Thanks a lot for the Power Shares link. I see that I can actually download my K-1 data into Turbo Tax and let TurboTax figure out the tax due. Since TurboTax keeps a running tally of the total tax due I will immediately be able to see the impact of the AGQ K-1 once I import it - very cool!

    I will report back my experience once I have done this - maybe this weekend.

    Thanks again!

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  171. Mike and Tudor, I am not rolling up and out because it is apparent the 3 year dollar cycle is unfolding as Gary has been preparing us for years. Seems silly to me to buy more time premium and give up DITM options.

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  172. archrival, THE WORD!$ Ha! Ha!
    Hokas pokas, even!!$$

    I only read this blog because Gary posts in it. I have been with him long enough to know that there is a very small chance that I am ever going to find better advice anywhere, etc. I have stopped looking for better alternatives at this point.

    I would rather not be tempted by any alternatives that might lead me astray. Sorry if I am coming on too strong. No offense itended. Cheers.

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  173. Gary - just a word: Thanks.

    Subscription: Best investment money I ever spent.

    401K funds (FKRCX & INIVX, only two worth a damn I have access to) are green and getting greener, already outperforming the S&P by >6% in only a month. Thanks for constantly reminding that this bull will correct any entry timing errors; so far so good.

    Now let's just sit back and have fun watching the fireworks for the next month or two, eh? Wish I could enjoy the view from the Matterhorn peak someday. My Swiss-born co-worker says it's spectacular. Found an interesting story about climbing it: http://www.derwanderer.net/2008/07/27/the-matterhorn/

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  174. NPC,
    I learned my lesson a long time ago. I don't make stupid mistakes like that anymore.

    What makes you think silver will even come close to trading back down to $36?

    What if it trades right through $40 and I lost my position? Where would I be then?

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  175. Andrew,

    Thanks for the link.

    Larry said he wants two consecutive closes above 1453 before he will jump on the bandwagon. So if we get those, all of his subs will jump too. That ought to give gold a swift kick higher. :-)

    (Let's hope for 1453 to get taken out soon!)

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  176. archrival, The part you did not ask about are the big alpha generators. From the intermediate low we are near 80% gains on AGQ. At the low I also buy small option positions on the silver miners. The junior miners themselves are considered my core.

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  177. Another Gary here...

    Regarding AGQ's partnership structure and K-1, it would be unwise to ignore the tax consequences.

    As an 'owner' in the partnership, you will have income or losses associated with your share in units of the partnership that are in addition to those that occur by buying at one price and selling at another.

    In my case, my share of the partnership income was offset by my share of the partnership expense which was added to the cost basis. So, income was higher but so was cost basis of the shares I sold. It ended up pretty close to a 'wash'.

    However, if I didn't sell AGQ at all last year, I would have had to recognize the additional 'phantom' income and pay taxes on that, while waiting to sell the shares to get the corresponding benefit in cost basis.

    So, if you hold AGQ versus trade AGQ shorter-term, and your tax bracket changes a lot from year-to-year, you may want to think about how this investment vehicle impacts your gains.

    I hope this is helpful.

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  178. nitro,

    me too, i will hold my physical position through the D wave.
    the reason for me to do this is because i don't regard it as an investment, but as a getaway ticket to start over if/when things get ugly, and i really hope it doesn't get that far.

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  179. Brian said: "Mike and Tudor, I am not rolling up and out because it is apparent the 3 year dollar cycle is unfolding as Gary has been preparing us for years. Seems silly to me to buy more time premium and give up DITM options."

    That certainly is a reasonable, defendable approach. I also bought at or near the intermediate lows and have decided to let most of the position run. But based on Gary's work and conviction that the momentum is about to take off, I'm going to back out a third and use it to increase my leverage a little. I'll still be ITM by a few strikes. Same expiration (June), though.

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  180. New Gary,

    Please consider changing your display name so that others may distinguish between Gary Savage and yourself. I know a lot of people search for Gary Savage's posts.

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  181. Keep in mind that isn't a third of my entire portfolio, Lord no! That's just one third of my DITM SLW positions.

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  182. Yeah, there's only room for one Gary here. Sorry Gary2. You need a name change.

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  183. Alrighty, I surrender with my baloney argument :) The low volume all-clear signal has been sounded. Demark indicators for Dollar exhaustion on the DAILY and WEEKLY are down at 74.90. MONTHLY is 72.5. At 72.5, I would look to scale out of your gold/silver trades. For sure, the DXY could overshoot to new lows - anything can happen - but the down dollar trend is your friend until it isn't as people witnessed in the early 80's and mid 1995. Just don't get greedy - follow Gary and you will be OK :)
    MONTHLY SPX Demark needs a higher high either in April or May to record a 1-4 month Sell Setup - good from June to September.

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  184. Tudor, I understood about your position size. I guess the only way I would add options is if the correction between the 2nd and 3rd daily cycle were sharp enough to give me great prices. I have had enough bad experiences with options. I only want to buy them when prices are falling sharply. Definitely not when they are rising sharply. The AGQ covers me during these periods well enough.

    No matter what, I wish you the best with the ones you buy!

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  185. So we can take coolkevs partially off the top caller list! Excellent. Buy a subscription coolkevs and start making some cash.

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  186. I didn't know that Google Blogger would even allow TWO Gary's? This is going to be a real hassle if we have to try and figure out which Gary is the real one..

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  187. Gary 2, change your name, but don't call yourself Duuuuuude.

    ReplyDelete

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