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Thursday, March 10, 2011

Portfolio change

A portfolio change has been posted to the website

242 comments:

  1. Gary-

    Hammy said Hammy was done here, but I can't believe you added here. DID YOU ASK THE HAMMY? NO. Hammy is not comfortable with you adding here. Hammy is going to be back one more time, once GOLD drops another 1% and tell all you cycle monkeys that THE HAMMY IS NEVER WRONG.

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  2. lol @ Hammy! That pic is classic!

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  3. The hammy is our best troll yet.

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  4. I know several added to miners here but waiting for metals? I've added to both this morning and thinking of adding more metals after to see the action later in the day. Anybody thinking of waiting for tomorrow to add to metals instead?

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  5. Access might be where 1400 cracks, although I still think its unlikely they would do that since there are way too many buyers waiting there...we shall see in 1.5 hours I guess

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  6. I agree with the Hammy and I too have never been wrong about gold.

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  7. Does anyone see the dynamite triangle forming on the hourly chart?

    Do you know which direction it will move in, if it forms, 50 min from now?

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  8. the delta on the option is just .66.. i thought we were looking for .80ish? thanks Gary!

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  9. Hammy,

    I just spilled my Big Gulp all over my keyboard.

    When you're done posting on Kitco during your lunch break, can you come upstairs and clean it up?

    Thanks.

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  10. I am correct in saying that gold bottoms are not usually V-bottoms. Gold just mulls around for a while and moves slowly up so you can't tell if you caught the bottom or not.

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  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  12. i am hoping svm goes to 12.6, slw goes to 38, sil goes to 25.4 ..maybe?

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  13. I noticed that call option was close too. Gary trying to skim a few more points on this final few cycles :)

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  14. On tuesday we have FOMC statement and federal funds rate announcement. I think it is very unlikely that the stock market, gold and the Euro will put any significant bottom before that. We could see a bounce today or tomorrow, but I expect it to be revisited on tuesday.

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  15. Gary,

    per your portfolio change, was that April or June?

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  16. Smallish IHS on /DX forming...just keeping an eye on it. Target would be 81.50 zone if it materializes.

    DX

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  17. Gary,

    I'm confused. You had said the only time to consider options is at the beginning of the A wave and even then they would be deep in the money options. What has caused you to change strategy a bit here? Just trying to understand your method and thinking.

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  18. wingman, why don't you just go read it again?

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  19. The somewhat awkward dynamite triangle in the SIK hourly now still in formation, and probably completing has about an 80% probability it will move the market by .5 pts off of the high end or low end of the long bar. 35.66 or 34.16.

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  20. Silver riding the daily trend line && 10 DMA even though gold crushed through it's TL & got to the 20.


    I'm kind of thinking now it might break and the 20 MA for silver might get tagged? The force of this sell off and the miners crapping their pants makes me think we could have more pain.

    I want to add a bit more and may do so today but just mentally preparing, esp if that DX keeps chugging up and the overall market keeps getting pounded.

    Silver


    That all being said, I find this action a bit troubling if a massive C wave is suppose to be in progress. Next few days will be telling.

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  21. dg,
    do you get buy signal for SPY today?

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  22. Strangely, the top of the dynamite triangle reaction, if up, will be the top of the Bollinger Band, around 36.60

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  23. Jayhawk,

    We are also supposedly six weeks from a C-wave top but the XAU has never even managed to break above its old high -- not even close.

    The XAU either needs to blast off soon or...

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  24. I guess that would help. Thanks Avann :)

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  25. Look at those big juicy gaps above us on SLW and SIL...

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  26. Great Panther Silver Expands Silver-Gold Mineralization At San Ignacio Mine Property, Guanajuato 03/10 01:00 PM

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  27. Re: C wave top

    longtime reader of Gary

    he is almost always right

    but he is almost always early

    give it time, we had a sick run in feb.

    btfd

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  28. Viking,

    True.

    But I would be reluctant to hold PM's into summer due to seasonality and the expiration of QE.

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  29. The action in the EURUSD since the January bottom has been uninspiring, and although I can see it going to 1.45 or so, I don´t see a melt up happening, which means that right now I don´t see the dollar collapsing in any way.

    I just hope that waiting for the dollar colapse doesn´t turn out to be a Beckettian thing, as in Waiting for Godot.

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  30. gary ,
    Does the drop today have anything to do with "no-fly zone"?

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  31. if in this or the next hourly bar we go through 35.16 with speed, 35.66 or thereclose will be about a 95% probability.

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  32. XAU does look AWFUL. A small drop from here to a double bottom on the FEB lows. Just look at the action on normally solid gold miners like GOLD.

    I'm glad to be riding the silver train, but a C-Wave should be not see these big names getting no action. Strange to me for sure.

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  33. Pulled the trigger on SIL


    Might as well take advantage of this pullback

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  34. The arc on the 5 min should be noted. The angle is parabolic and steep.

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  35. 92000, the drop has to do with the permanent, "take no prisoners zone" that the big boyz established a long time ago. Today is just tree shaking... hopefully not the entire landscape.

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  36. Slumdog ... was that fast enough?

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  37. "That all being said, I find this action a bit troubling if a massive C wave is suppose to be in progress. Next few days will be telling."

    Expect the volatility to increase the further the C-wave goes. I would not expect a straight shot to the moon by any means.

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  38. Jayhawk,

    More importantly, we are now below the March 10, 2008 top on XAU.

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  39. From the floor, Saudi has started firing on protesters.

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  40. TK was long GDX for 10 minutes and short again so we're still in good shape I hope.

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  41. Does anyone think the partial recovery in the metals has anything to do with the Suadi police firing on demonstrators? I ask because the "Day of Rage" isn't until tomorrow.

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  42. This is what I mean. It seems like the Day of Rage started early.

    http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/03/10/saudi.arabia.protests/

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  43. For those interested, Extorre is going to list on the AMEX symbol XG. This was a carve out from XRA and has performed very nicely. Current symbol is exgmf if you want to see the chart. I do own it.

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  44. Just checking in, and it's good to see Gary put more chips on the table this morning.

    Still, I'm not adding more here. Only into sharp pukes like this morning. Maybe we'll get another in a day or two?

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  45. I would love to see a hammer form at end-of-day.

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  46. "More importantly, we are now below the March 10, 2008 top on XAU."-David

    I wouldn't let this fact throw you off track.

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  47. SB, I thought you added some miners in the morning? Still waiting to add on your metals? I added to both and may add more still have 50% of my dry powder left.

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  48. SB,

    I'm not selling a share.

    It's all just part of my "buy and worry" system.

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  49. Take a peek at EXK. Didn't get that one earlier.

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  50. From Kevin Depew at Minyanville (paraphrased by me)
    SLW closed below its reference close yesterday - bearish
    Silver itself will most likely not perfect its DAILY sell setup today. Usually, the tendency is for it to perfect, which would require a new high - perhaps on the Day of Rage???
    If Silver closes below 35.43, with a down open tomorrow, it qualifies a break of TD Prop Down Momentum to...34.33?? weren't we already there today?? DAILY Silver already on a TD Sequential Sell which will probably be confirmed today with a bearish price flip. Good through the middle of the week of March 20
    General Market: NDX will most likely close below its reference close level of 2315.26 - bearish
    SP: WEEKLY Sell signal will probably be confirmed with a bearish price flip this week - good into early May. Cannot qualify DAILY down level today @ 1305, but we might be able to qualify WEEKLY down with a close below 1286.55 Friday, then down open on Monday. Target if qualified is SP 1236.10

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  51. Nice buying into the pit close:)

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  52. Ryan,

    I was buying this morning (miners), but not the metal yet, only because they were offering some great bargains this morning. Either way, the metal should do fine too, regardless of the next couple days where we could see some additional weakness.

    We have to buy 'em some time, and sharp declines offer the lowest risk entries. One thing for sure, if we're lucky enough to sell off some more, I'll put more to work.

    I still don't own AGQ, but it's on the list of candidates.

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  53. And when I say we could see weakness, I mean both the metals and the miners I hold as well. It's never going to be perfect, so adjust size for some wiggle room and scout for the next opportunity. :)

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  54. And FWIW, the protests and firing are in the main oil regionof Saudi Arabia.

    Does anything think the full-fledged day of rage tomorrow will be PM positive or already built in?

    Gary - I know you say it is because of the daily low and not news related but I think you had mentioned that Korea cause things to be messed up with your daily cycle and just wondering if you see the same thing here?

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  55. IMO Today EOD may (not a certainty at this point) be a very good chance to go long SPX for another 10-12% ride up over next 2 months.

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  56. Gold better head up ASAP or we may be looking at something other than a massive C rise.

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  57. I'm waiting for Hammy to tell me when to add.

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  58. mlmt,

    I have been patiently waiting for this S&P trade. But I still feel we need to go a little bit lower. I am thinking between 1286 and 1290 on the cash S&P.

    The bottom could have been made already, but I will not chase it here because I still feel the high probability is one more push down to the levels I mentioned.

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  59. Veronica/Vuvvy,

    Why do you say that? Isn't this normal for a daily cycle low and then a resumption of the c-wave?

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  60. Not adding anything at these levels today.

    These really aren't very significant drops despite the glee many are feeling buying them today.

    These aren't 'deals'.

    I'm sitting and waiting. If silver goes 32-33.50 I'm still willing to add.

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  61. "TZ,... If silver goes 32-33.50 I'm still willing to add."

    AGQ 180?

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  62. These aren't 'deals'. -TZ

    Not right here necessarily, but many miners were deals this morning.

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  63. Ryan I don't mean this very minute but seeing how my system interacted with other large rises in the past any more large sticks down could be trouble.I would like to see no new lows, or just marginal ones the next day or 2.A low volatility day/lows holding tomorrow with new highs Monday/Tuesday would be perfect:)

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  64. >many miners were deals this morning.

    Perhaps. They certainly gapped down hard. GPL off 20% in two days.

    But I'm not in the stocks for reasons I said earlier due to most not outperforming silver and those that will/might I would be crazy to put my net worth into.

    I've got enough long (5x+) if I'm wrong about a bottom here, but I simply don't want to add at a marginal pullback which doesn't really scream 'deal'.

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  65. Veronica,

    Have you tested your system on all C wave legs in this PM bull? I would expect similarities, but would also expect some to not conform.

    Also, --IF-- this is the last leg of the current C wave and --IF-- it evolved into a blowoff top, wouldn't we expect an increase in volatility? If so, wouldn't the dips be more severe (as well as the sharp rises also being more severe)?

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  66. Awe, don't say it, 92000.

    The last time AGQ was in 180's, Basil got bored. And when Basil got bored, I lost 10% of my portfolio in five minutes!

    IF this was the worst of it, this go-round, kind of a yawner. (I'm not complaining.)

    "Buy and worry." Like that, David! Not fun, but honest.

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  67. Daily volumes today on GLD and SLV nothing to write home about. gold and silver futures volume a little higher than normal, but nothing spectacular.

    BoW numbers also weak. GLD is on the list, but at a measly 6 mill.

    I don't see SLV, SLW, GDX, or GDXJ on the list at all. GG and NEM are there, but with small numbers.

    So far, there doesn't seem to be any rush to buy this dip in PM's.

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  68. Hey Wes,

    How many days of downside action did you notice after the last two short-term tops in AGQ and do you know the average decline?

    THanks!

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  69. Pima, I have the capability to backtest to 1974 for gold and the 1960's for silver.I am certainly not saying this pullback cannot go further and the C wave to still be intact but if we pull back much further the chances for a multi week/month consolidation are much greater.We all know gold can do whatever it pleases and does most of the time to throw us off.It is most certainly a very humbling way of making $.

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  70. I thought the FED meeting were on wednesdays, I see somebody said they are on tuesday the 15?

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  71. Pima, in early Oct of 1979 my system got a sell signal that did not immediately reverse and it then consolidated in a triangle for 1.5 months with a fake breakdown before the next buy signal generated. We all know what happened after that:)I will be keeping my core positions but will have a tight leash on additional buys until I'm convinced the cycle bottom is in.

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  72. It's looking like the S&P has more downside tomorrow.

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  73. Thanks, Veronica. The next few days will be the tell. I certainly don't want to sit thru a sideways (or worse) consolidation thru the summer, so let's up this bull starts running uphill quick.

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  74. Pima,

    Let's keep in mind that this weakness is happening right on Gary's schedule. He called it exactly.

    So as long as things are unfolding as expected we should stick to the plan.

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  75. The $HUI has pulled back 50% from the rally that started in late January. If stocks and the entire commodity mkts weren't so weak, this would be the general area to bottom.

    That said, it's looking like more weakness in the short term.

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  76. You're darn right this is at TEST BoblovesHawaii! It's a test on if you will bow the the mighty Hammy and listen to the Hammy's brilliant gold calls. Hammy called this recent top and Hammy will continue to knock them out of the park. Hammy also likes the respect little Mikey is showing the Hamminator. Good choice Mikey, I bet you will like the Hammy like you did that Life cereal back in 1975.


    Hammy thinks the sell off MIGHT not be over. Hammy thinks a day or 2 more of selling then the bottom. UNLESS we start to move higher here now, they the HAMMY says that higher prices are coming. Third, if these 2 scenarios don't play out, you have the very real possibility that gold will trend sideways. NOW, IF THERE'S A MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL EVENT, I predict gold may go way up from here.


    There's your HAMMY afternoon call for the day. Back to KITCO to talk with my other brilliant trading buddies.

    Hammy out.

    -"Don't Mess with the Hammy, You Will Get the Snout"

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  77. If tomorrow turns out to be another big down day for the EURUSD there is a very good chance that something else might be going on, probably a few weeks of dollar uptrend. I will get out of my silver position as I don´t want to be around for that.

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  78. Agree.

    If anybody had "alternative systems" that worked, they wouldn't necessarily be hear posting. Yeah sure I know they complement your system....

    Gary has been on the mark for so long and with uncanny accuracy. Decisions on gold/silver are based around these calls, in my book.

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  79. Not many buyers coming in today on these high fliers (SLW, AG, EXK, SVM) Most are sitting on their 20 MA's. Hopefully, those hold.

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  80. Its funny how quickly the sentiment shifts in here.

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  81. Poly, the last thing I want to be is a distraction on this board. Would you rather I stop posting any system trades? Maybe Gary would rather I stop too?

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  82. Vuvvy,

    Continue to post your system's trade. Thanks.

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  83. Maybe the Fed is going to nix QE2 and 3 in the meeting? NOOOOO!!!! :)

    I'd have to sell on that news if I believed anything that ever came out of their mouths.

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  84. AMoldyHamsammich, ease off hammy's nuts for a sec. you did give me a good chuckle for the day though. i got cash to buy on more dips. you a funny guy.

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  85. vuuvy/Veronica ... I appreciate hearing from everyone ... please continue.
    You are far from a distraction ... thanks

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  86. gary

    gold daily cycle is on target. i got my futures at 1404.
    but what is up with the entire market sector. specifically EVERYTHING ?

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  87. Just to weigh in here-

    I dont really like what I see here today. I am on my laptop and cant attach charts at this time...

    But for one thing-

    1) Aren't we in the strongest part of the bulls C-wave to date?

    I look at GDX and GDXJ and HUI/XAU...compared to the July to Nov run . Then they never really crashed below 20sma until late Oct-
    Today , 1 1/2 months after the Jan low...they are crashing below the 50sma!

    2) GDXJ , HUI , etc...uptrend threatened with lower low and close there so far ( isnt it supposed to be "higher low, higher high" maintains the uptrend?

    just saying- I wouldnt add leverage yet

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  88. I hope I'm not a distraction.I've done exactly what I outlined I would do yesterday if my system triggered and my risk is now defined.I would hope nobody here would follow me blindly but use me as another data point that bolsters Gary's view.

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  89. That's exactly what I am doing with the information you provide, Veronica. I'm a sub to Gary's nightly report, that's my main data source, but it's nice to get your input too.

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  90. GLD tagged the 20 DMA twice and almost 3 times between August and November, 2010.

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  91. On Aug. 11 GDX closed handsomely below the 50 MA.

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  92. Alex, I second that. I did not like to see GDX close at low of day.

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  93. Yes Veronica, we probably don't need to read gold doomster posts here.

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  94. Blogger DumbMovingAvg said...

    GLD tagged the 20 DMA twice and almost 3 times between August and November, 2010.

    Exactly ,

    And so did the GDX and GDXJ , but thats not what happened today...

    they are acting weaker this time around, plunging through and closing below the 50sma. THAT didnt happen early on in the JULY run , and this is supposed to be the STRONGEST and best leg up.

    I'm just saying,,,something to keep an eye on , for those so inclined.

    A gap open tomorrow and a close up would ease my concerns.

    I guess at this point I would watch the bounce from here ( maybe to fill those gaps above). If there's no conviction, I am convinced that I will change my flexible plan :)

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  95. Newmont is doing a fine job of pulling down the mining sector.

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  96. Alex,

    I hear what you're saying, I'm not liking the behavior of the miners either.

    However, if you look at HUI chart, you'll see that on the first major pullback after the late July low, HUI retraced a little more than 50 percent of the move up from that late July low (pullback bottomed on 8/24). Today HUI bottomed at exactly 50 percent retracement of the move up since late January. So from that perspective, this pullback looks pretty normal.

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  97. Blogger james r said...

    On Aug. 11 GDX closed handsomely below the 50 MA.

    March 10, 2011 1:08 PM

    TRUE, but it hadnt yet regained and spent any time above it yet , at that point. It was bumping it to regain it.

    Time will tell , buy and sell :)

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  98. I'd say sentiment is just where we need it to be for another leg up.

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  99. Alex, I think general mkt weakness has helped the miners be weaker.

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  100. PIMA C

    thx , see thats the only reason I air my concerns...

    I want to hear the pro's and cons

    add them together , and weigh the results.

    Thx Pima , one more for the Pro's

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  101. David,


    I would agree with you.

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  102. You're welcome.

    Keep airing those concerns! (even if they sound like doom and gloom, I don't care.) Keeps us honest. And a little bit scared. A little bit of fear is probably healthy. No fear and we all put on heavy leverage and you know where Gary says that will end up!

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  103. And I could add that most of us care a lot less about HUI and XAU and even the GDX , then we do for SIL and SLW and AGQ

    they are acting correctly,,thats another YAY!

    I am quite invested, just saying..not adding leverage yet...I FEEL , its a 'feeling' that its NOT the strongest leg up yet. I see a lower low in HUI and GDX ( even GDXJ..that shocks me on the strongest wave up).

    I am hoping to be proven wrong just as much as everyone in here. I DO NOT want to be bored to tears with a sideways move through the summer either!

    Still watching that Dollar for a collapse...theres a lot to see yet.

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  104. Brian

    I believe that could be true too...the trigger happy sell button :)

    Your MMG didnt disappoint today though , thats quite the reversal

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  105. I love this!
    Its funny how everyone complains about not having pullbacks to add, yet when we get it, all the reluctance to add surfaces... everyone thinks this run is a mistake and a D wave is coming.
    Comical.

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  106. SB,

    Don't worry if they cancel QE2 and QE3, QE4 will replace both of them. :)

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  107. someone said a D-wave is hear???

    missed that call

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  108. Aaron,

    I flipped $200k from SIL to AGQ today, which is my way of adding leverage.

    Buy and worry...

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  109. C-wave should complete beginning of May or end of April at earliest.

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  110. Speaking of not liking the miners, I'm not liking the dollar! Big green candle today.

    However, on the plus side (in favor of "hey Buck, that all you got?!") is the fact that today's high was almost exactly a 50 percent retracement of the move down from the Feb 14 high to the March 3 low. 50 percent is common. Starts going much over that, especially if it gets above 62 percent, then I will start to wonder whether the March 3 low was some kind of major bottom.

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  111. pima, see last lines of March 7 report.

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  112. S&P may have put in a bottom today.

    ES futures may bottom out at 5:30pm EST

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  113. Here's another concern (besides the strength of the dollar and the weakness of GDX/HUI): GDXJ. The juniors had a much more significant pullback over the past 3 days compared to the first big pullback on the runup after the late July low.

    When GDXJ bottomed on 8/24, it was only 38 percent retracement of move up from late July.

    Today's low was more than a 50 percent retracement from late January low.

    SIL and SLV are looking good though. SIL's pullback today bottomed at a little more than 38 percent retracement. Silver's bottomed at around 20 percent!

    Okay, I'm done for now. Let's see what the next few trading days bring.

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  114. Not on the bus yet, still got 50% GC from 1430-ish

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  115. NAK is getting kicked when its down

    : O

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  116. The anxiety among certain folks on this blog today makes me feel much better about being long silver...not to mention about my decision to add today with Gary.

    It seems some of you (not naming names) would actually feel BETTER buying into a gap UP!

    Sometimes I wonder if we're reading the same newsletter...

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  117. I added a good chunk of SLW calls in the AM. I have about 5% cash position I was going to use for some options plays once this daily cycle low is in, so I'm pretty fully loaded. I don't have any leverage, so I'm like Alex here...cautious is all.

    You've got to admit, that was a pretty ugly day on the miners we all know and love. I can take a correction to the 20 MA, but to see it happen in the span of a few hours, well that looks pretty ugly. If this whole C wave theory is correct, there aught to be a MASSIVE move in the next couple of weeks coming out of the daily low.

    Again, the large cap miners are stuck in the mud. This too does not seem to fit with a C wave blow off.

    I think we are catching something usual cooking in the silver market...Not sure this has anything to do with a 3 year dollar low move yet. The last 2 years have seen it's big moves in the miners coming out of the summer intermediate. With the overall market in sell off mode now, we have some headwinds we are fighting here.

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  118. "Don't worry if they cancel QE2 and QE3, QE4 will replace both of them. :"-Keys

    You got that right! The Fed will monetize, or the jig is up and they go to prison. :)

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  119. The Fed HAS to keep printing, just to buy bonds they're buddies at the Treasury issue. Does anybody really believe the Fed will quit buying bonds?

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  120. Jayhawk,

    I hear you. Just remember-- the Big Boyz specialize in tricking people by giving a head fake to goose the fear up.

    You follow the metals and subscribe to Gary and YOU are getting concerned. Just imagine the emotions that today's action created in the DUMB money!

    Ask yourself: what could the Big Boyz do that would surprise the largest number of people in the aftershock of today's sell off? A massive blast off in the next few days, that's what.

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  121. All in all look forward to Gary's report tonight:)

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  122. When these juniors gap open 10% and move 30% in a week, we're all smiles.
    They get slapped with a 10% drop on the open and that's out of character? I expected more of a drop, considering equities were also getting pounded.

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  123. I haven't read today's comments yet, so i may be redundant, but I am wondering why people are so quick to jump in with added positions? Why not wait for a reversal? I mean, the most you risk is a couple percent, but you get to enter with the knowledge that there is a clear stop just a couple percent below your entry.

    By entering today, one is blind. By that I mean that there is no way to know how far below us the stop will end up being. Could be 1/2% or 8% (choose an arbitrary number). Point is, I'm feeling very patient waiting for the market to tell me when to enter, but it seems that a vast majority are just wanting to jump in at any sign of weakness as if the pms cannot have a sustained correction. Look at the recent runup. PMs can give back half of that without being concerning. I don't think they will, but I guess I'm trying to say that waiting for the market to show its hand offers the best odds for a great entry IMO.

    Fubsy

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  124. I'm actually not that worried. I looked at my account balance and was like ho-hum, whatever. It was way up there a few days back, I'm sure it will rally again very soon. I should have bought more on the options side. Poly-you like to play on the edge a bit. What ticker, month and strike are you stalking?

    I got some April SLW 44's today.

    Traderlady-

    Whatcha buy today?

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  125. Also, for those of you feeling the beginning of panic at this drop and wondering if the C-Wave is over, I would say that's good. You are feeling a change in sentiment, which is exactly how daily bottoms serve the bull. They shake out weak hands, and cleanse positive sentiment. Remember, the bull runs quickest anf furthest with the fewest riders on its back.

    Ole!

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  126. jay

    not sure if it was a good thing but i flattened my accout at 1330 and replaced them with 1440 calls. just to hold the spot and still be long. i guess i locked in some proffits. now i went long at 1404 and 1408. at this point im ahead so i guess it was a good stratagy

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  127. Fubsy,

    It could be that miners head lower, but I like to buy after a few days down and into a large pukeout like we had today, regardless of what happens the next day or two. It's not like I picked a price and bet the whole wad on one trade. I've been adding to a winning trade on pullbacks, and after today's buys I'm at 80% looking to put the rest to work. I like to keep a positive mark so size accordingly.

    ReplyDelete
  128. I bought some SVM but bought and sold SLW and AG at a profit. Yes, just a wiggle move. lol

    ReplyDelete
  129. been here all day. im addicted to the iphone. i work that thing like a violen

    ReplyDelete
  130. its hard to type on the iphone though

    ReplyDelete
  131. Veronica,

    You're opinions and signals are not a distraction just because they occasionally go against the grain around here. I think the reason we call some people out is their delivery. There's nothing wrong with sharing what you see, IMO. It's when fellas like hammy step all over themselves to brag they were right about yesterday that makes them a good whipping post. :)

    ReplyDelete
  132. Traderlady ... I did the same today ... I picked up HZU near the bottom today and sold near the top.
    I still have everything I had before today. If this goes lower I'm ready and if we get the swing low I will commit the rest with a firm stop at the cycle low.

    ReplyDelete
  133. not to much small talk. we kindergarteners will have to go to bed early

    ReplyDelete
  134. Jeff, Too bad you are in Delaware,
    could be a fun glass of wine.

    ReplyDelete
  135. I am in training mode.


    I will be ready when we hit the higher altitude where the air is very thin.

    ReplyDelete
  136. we might be down there this year with the kids

    ReplyDelete
  137. Jeff, Don't blame you with this winter. Kids would love it!

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  138. to old to have a 2 and 4 year olds

    ReplyDelete
  139. Now we're cooking with gas.

    Traderlady hitting on the boys!

    ReplyDelete
  140. Jeff, They shall keep you younger!

    ReplyDelete
  141. Jay,

    I've gone "conservative" by my standards, LOL.
    But i did substantially raise my leverage today. Got the very lows of the day, let's hope they are the lows for the cycle, that would be nice.
    I'm only in SLV July's, primarily in $25 and $30's (75% of position) and the rest in the $35 and $40. Was looking for a lottery play, but didn't get it.

    ReplyDelete
  142. Jay, yeah, live in the land of "old people" LOL

    ReplyDelete
  143. nobody has said anything about the dollar. looks like a steady uptred

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  144. The one-day USD dollar trend looks good on a solid candle like you said.

    ReplyDelete
  145. 25 years ago they said sarasota had 65 million a month in ss checks cashed. im sure its 20 times that now

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  146. the sky is falling...the sky is falling...

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  147. anyway to read a target for the dollar?

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  148. gold and silver

    not even close yet

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  149. I didn't think Gary would be writing a report after such an uneventful day...

    ;-)

    I cannot imagine being 140% invested. As it is, I have trouble sleeping with 70-80% invested.

    I have to admit those Hammy posts are funny - anyone who refers to themselves in the third person is fair game as far as I'm concerned.

    I also day traded today (gasp!). Bought HZU and SLW (when Gary did) and sold when they started rolling over. Took some of the sting out of today.

    I like the buy and worry comment - so true.

    ReplyDelete
  150. I sort of wish you guys hadn't chased Hammy off. He removed his post before I had a chance to read it, but I'm guessing it was pretty offensive.

    But he seemed like a good short term market timer, and they are hard to find. I enjoy making small short term trades around a larger position and welcome new information.

    Anyone know what name he posts under over at Kitco?

    ReplyDelete
  151. FWIW, I got Super Force buys a couple of times today on GDX and GDXJ. This is a timing tool.

    ReplyDelete
  152. when i go out with the kids. people say " are you out with your grandpa today" to them.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Wes,

    https://www.blogger.com/blogin.g?blogspotURL=http%3A%2F%2Fmarketcyclesresearch.blogspot.com%2F

    His private blog.
    His kitco name is "AgoldHamster" or something like that.

    ReplyDelete
  154. My parents were 45 with my brother. I understand as they were on ss when he was in college which helped.

    ReplyDelete
  155. You can find him at Kitco:

    https://www.kitcomm.com/showpost.php?p=1262046&postcount=10142

    He doesn't sound so bad on there and he does have a point (re: excessive bullishness).

    ReplyDelete
  156. I don't know what a Super Force buy is, but it sounds freaking awesome to me. :)

    ReplyDelete
  157. with gary's help they will be able to go to havard. o wait. not with my money. lol

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  158. Can you just imagine the cost of Harvard in 15 years! Ouch! Stick with Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  159. Reminds me of an old song called "hammy come back" about a minute into this video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn-enjcgV1o

    ReplyDelete
  160. Harvard has an awesome track record of producing top business minds like Ben Bernanke. You should for sure send the kiddies there.

    ReplyDelete
  161. jay

    thats what i say. not with my money. oboma went there also

    ReplyDelete
  162. Wes ... it wasn't really that offensive ... he was just gloating a bit ... kind of an "I Told You So Post" ... like we didn't see this coming.

    ReplyDelete
  163. The USD is looking to rally...unless it turns down right away, we might have a curve ball...the weakness in miners is a tell and concerning..

    we need to be careful here and lock our profits

    ReplyDelete
  164. hmmm ... everyone trying to read at the same time? I'm getting an error trying to access it.

    ReplyDelete
  165. im freaking out
    try to log on and it says
    cannot displaye the web page

    ReplyDelete
  166. Thanks ddn3f and blammo. The link you referenced ddn3f says you need to be invited.

    Do you know how that works ?

    ReplyDelete
  167. Yeah same here ... well that's the last time I post a notice :).

    Gary, any idea why some can't access it?

    ReplyDelete
  168. Yeah me too. Page error access violation. Maybe the subscriber base has gotten too big for the server :)

    ReplyDelete
  169. damn, gary's got an army. all access at same time, website crashed. ha ha..

    ReplyDelete
  170. Jayhawk

    Arent you usually the one thats supposed to call out the 'tail' on the bottom of Gold and Silvers candle today? :)

    ReplyDelete
  171. gold and silver ... you may be right ... the D-Wave is definitely in the cards.
    I hope you're all in cash ... that's the safest bet right now.

    ReplyDelete
  172. OK ... that's my fault ... I will NOT give a notice again ... sorry Gary.

    ReplyDelete
  173. I bet this is a denial-of-service attack from the conspirators at JPM

    ReplyDelete
  174. Gary, trying to read the today's update, got this:

    PHP has encountered an Access Violation at 022C00AD

    ReplyDelete
  175. Terrill nice summary but don't give out all the goodies on the newsletter. We're all so anxious to read it so make sure only subscribers get the info :)

    ReplyDelete
  176. wasnt one of the trolls a IT dude. its a cyber atack. and jp morgan

    ReplyDelete
  177. No that won't help ... I can't even get to the main page.
    I should have at least loaded the letter before I gave notice :(

    ReplyDelete
  178. terill
    all thumbs up though?

    ReplyDelete
  179. Maybe Hammy got upset and hacked Gary's site? :)

    ReplyDelete
  180. Hey Terrill

    I'm not speaking for me, but from past experience...

    If you think any subs might be touchy about that info on this blog,where non-subs can read it.. you cab always go back and delete them .

    ReplyDelete
  181. Terrill ... please take no offence ... you haven't said anything of significance but remember this blog is a public blog ... try not to post anything that Gary may consider worth the price of subscription.

    ReplyDelete
  182. Terrill,

    I think you might want to delete those posts, not too long ago, Gary did mention there should be less subscriber info on the public blog.

    ReplyDelete
  183. Wes,

    Not sure how to get to Hammy's blog. He had it open to the public before, but now I guess it's private.

    ReplyDelete
  184. I want to try to re-iterate my post at 1.00 p.m. today :)

    It wasnt the 'action ' or 'sell-off' today that had me comment.

    I was merely saying I didnt like what I saw today when I compared the July to Nov part of the c-wave , to the Feb to now, based on GDX, HUI, GDXJ , etc STRENGTH -WISE.

    Like, this is to be the STRONGEST IMPULSE of the entire bull market, but by comparison...aUG to NOV seemed stronger.

    I am all in ( no leverage yet), I am Bullish. I am not a skittish trader...I went all in Jan 25th and posted it on this blog, and never got off the bull.

    clarity!! :) Peace out! Our 4 the nite

    ReplyDelete
  185. Blogger Terrill said...

    Let me know how I can take it out, and will if need be.

    March 10, 2011 4:54 PM

    on your own comments, you can see a little trashcan at the bottom of the post , it will delete your posts, if you wish. Your call. :)

    ReplyDelete
  186. Alex ... this is only the first daily cycle ... presumably there's at least 1 probably 2 more ... For a first cycle I think it has been fairly impressive.

    ReplyDelete

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