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Friday, March 18, 2011

STOPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED

I'm fairly confident Tuesday marked the daily cycle low, barring another exogenous event coming out of Japan in the next day or two. I have updated stops and trade trigger on the website .

91 comments:

  1. The dollar looking weaker by the hour!
    Great call Gary!

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  2. Gary,

    how long does it take in your opinion for the crowd to realise the implications of what's happening with the $.

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  3. Gary,

    It seems like you are popping up all over the net.

    http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/

    Does this website have anything to do with you?

    It looks very similar in terms of your cycle analysis and daily commentary. It may be another rip-off site or this guy has evolved a similar investing style to yours?

    It even has a mountain range as a backdrop.

    Strange!!

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  4. Any guesses how far the June 38 SLW call could go? I got mine yesterday at $5.00.

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  5. Gary,

    Your dollar chart on the Premium site has indeed disappeared!

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  6. Gary
    How could a guy like Rogers be on the verge of losing
    Everything?

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  7. What's a good site with a live USD chart? Kitco is delayed 30 mins.

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  8. Jim Rogers isn't on the verge of losing everything, he's mostly long commodities. Perhaps he was referring to only his dollar holdings.

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  9. i look at €/$ to see it real time, isn't perfect but good enough for me

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  10. Hi Gary,

    I shared this link (miningalmanac.com) with you about a year ago when the site was in bare-bones beta with just 400 companies, but it's now complete. It's a database of all mining & exploration stocks in the US, UK, Australia and Canada, about 1700, with all of their properties, resource estimates and production. You can search for companies using various filters and compare them by financial and resource metrics. We've also made niche mining sector indices & charts, and lists of movers by volume & price.

    It's completely free and will remain so.

    Best regards,

    Mike

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  11. Veronica: How accurate is your system? YOu have posted stats about the USERX/Futes divergence before, but how good would this buy be likely to be?

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  12. DG,my system is 65% accurate on long trades.Coupled with Gary's and Doc's cycle work and another cycle guy I watch should increase those odds I hope:)

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  13. Look like silver responding to the collapsing dollar!

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  14. DG, my system has been backtested to the inception of Globex trading from early 2000's.

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  15. Ian,
    I don't see where any charts have vanished?

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  16. Also, the system is outperforming currently with the profit equity curve at all time highs.It's never good to trade a system with a sideways or down curve as you know all systems ebb and flow with theur performance.

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  17. Hammy still waiting to buy, or is he going to tell us he caught this move?

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  18. I suppose that is how the bull shakes off those that believe in it. Hammy is very bullish except b/t now and Apr. 4, but might never get on the G-train again.

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  19. A quick suggestion to those asking Hammy for info...
    He recommended 'cyclist' from kitco. Cyclist is as right about the market as a broken clock, and with no reasoning to back it up...except some astrological readings at times. Just an FYI, since I'd appreciate others of warning me about suggested reading if they had an input on it.

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  20. I must admit that I wasn't focused on the dollar for this metals trade as long term all paper currency gets debased, which is good enough for me. When trading gold and silver, those are what I watch.

    But that was a great call by Gary. the dollar is getting trashed, when just about all "traders" I've read lately have been predicting a bounce. No wonder Gary is the most plagiarized site on the 'net. :)

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  21. One must ask himself how much money they saved trying to sidestep this recent pullback, while losing their positions in the process?

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  22. jeff -

    rogers is no fool... he has a defined risk stop on the dollar trade. he won't lose much.

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  23. Shalom Bernake - quite obviously you do not understand my trading style.

    I yesterday outlined what is important and what not.
    For those not able to read or digest: That was Lybia and Saudi Arabia.
    Explicitely mentioned these to countries as the reason to remain flat.

    Now what happened later in the day?

    No-fly airspaces was established, first a rumor later the fact.

    So what?

    Add that at the same time the major resistance at 1405 was breached - and even a blind knows what to do.

    Go long Brent, Gold, Silver, Swissy.

    Result - NAV just around 1-2K anymore below the last alltime high.

    Yours?

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  24. Thanks, "Veronica"
    ...and you need a new handle ;-)

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  25. Hammy,

    Of course I don't understand your trading style. Not only do you have your site locked, but you don't explain it very well. It didn't take a genius to understand we were due for a pullback after an 80% run.

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  26. And my NAV is close to all time highs as well since I added into weakness, plus I still have all my positions, and more.

    Just get in there and buy 'em, Hammy!

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  27. SB: You are just in a different world than Hammy regarding time frames. I have danced around Gary's recommendations (I kept no core during the IT decline; posted a few days ago that I sold SIL before it tanked and replaced it with AGQ at lower prices Wednesday, etc.) IF you have the discipline to buy back when you are scared, and IF you use risk management trading is perfectly valid. Not nearly as easy as just buying and going away, but don't count good traders out when they say they are "out" because they can be 100% in about 30 seconds.

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  28. Ryan, I hope you slept better last night!

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  29. Nov lows should be taken out next week by the USD, and thats probably when gold will have a good chance of getting over 1440 and Silver getting over that annoying 36 level.

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  30. DG,

    Perhaps, but not in a ripping bull market. I trade short term swings, but not in the metals bull.

    I find the best markets for more frequent entries and exits are usually sideways or non-trending. That is not the case with this trade.

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  31. Ghaddafi chikenning out killed our momentum :)
    Dollar rallies a whopping 4 ticks in response.

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  32. Gary,

    There is also this site - Toby Connor?

    Is he a pseudanym?

    http://www.goldscents.blogspot.com/

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  33. SB,

    Like others in the past who have posted, it's a losing battle engaging.

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  34. I wouldn't worry about Gaddafi, he provided a "spark or excuse", but the game is on. Let the chase start.

    One of the most gratifying experience is having front seats and witnessing the clamor of the crowd at the gates, desperately wanting a piece.

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  35. Hot Rod, gary and toby are the same person.

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  36. looks like the Libya news sure crapped out out momentum...silver down 50 cents from it's high

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  37. Libya has nothing to do with where we're going, IMO.

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  38. But Silver up 0.70 from it's low. Always better viewed that way, IMO.

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  39. I was hoping for a slight down open in metals, and get this action next week.

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  40. See a lot of this action on Friday's before a big run, everybody want's their book in place for the weekend, no fun being locked out.

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  41. Does anyone here read Gartman?
    He draws a comparison between this earthquake and the one in 1989 that hit Tokyo.
    Basically, all the money needed to rebuild back then was pulled from North American markets and sent back to Japan. This had the effect of hitting NA markets hard ... he doesn't say but I assume metals as well ... and propping up the Japanese markets. Any money that went back to Japan and wasn't required immediately was put to work in Japanese equities.
    This effect did not occur until 2-3 weeks after the 1989 earthquake ... it took them that long to assess the costs to rebuild.
    Anyone care to comment ...

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  42. DG ... or 400% or 1200% in in 30 seconds.
    That's exactly the point.

    And hence also it makes almost no sense to follow such traders, except these are longerterm trades. Something that might happen sometimes or not.

    Accordingly for the average investor Gary's way is the way to go.

    Just that sometimes i don't agree with this or that ...

    gl & gt

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  43. Yes, Hammy, so out of respect for the blog, please be careful about what you post. It would be a shame for newer people to get shaken by what you write, lose a position, and miss the PM bull.

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  44. Interesting that on the Libyan cease fire news, oil fell $3/3% and Gold barely budged. The dollar didn't move either. Solidified in my mind that gold is not an inflation play, but is purely traveling opposite the $ - at least right now.

    Basically what Gary's been saying, but I tend to fall into the 'trust but verify' camp.

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  45. whats important is there is no crying today about the financial world ending with Libya and Japan incidents dying down. Now everyone who sold off last week holding their precious cash has to figure what to do with it. :)

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  46. Good morning to everyone!

    Differing opinions make this board interesting to read, but I agree that Hammy should qualify many of his statements as seemingly no one can follow his trades or leverage levels in real time. Hammy, thank you for qualifying many of your recent posts with warnings that you may not follow your own advice and warning the member not to follow your trades.

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  47. What a lack luster performance on GDX.

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  48. I'm initiating my trading share orders now. Buying April SLV 28 calls.

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  49. AGQ still outshining the miners (SIL/SLW).

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  50. Next time we get a sharp gap lower in metals, I'd like to take advantage and snag some AGQ from weak hands way below the market.

    It was down 3x SLV on the open the other day! Won't let that opportunity slip by again.

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  51. Market orders in AGQ were getting filled 10-12 pts below fair value. Those long AGQ should remember that when it comes time to exit. AGQ must be sold into up (or flat) market.

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  52. First time I read Gary's column was "Golden Fireworks". I got so pumped on gold and could tell this guy knew what he was talking about, I bought GLD before finishing the article. The punch line: Go long silver, not gold. Picked up AGQ yesterday and am enjoying the rally. Thanks, Gary. Might even be able to afford a yearly sub after today. :)

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  53. Shalom,

    How are the positions in your portfolio weighted?

    I'm almost entirely AGQ.

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  54. My positions are based on total risk per position, based on the average volatility (average true range), on the weekly charts.

    The reason my stops are somewhat below those levels is that I have unrealized profits, and have not moved my stops up as yet.

    For example, I own 1.5x shares SVM for every one share SIL.

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  55. Good call WES.

    Playing the bullion, leveraged, takes so much of the headache and worry out of it, IMO. The bullion is outperforming and there is too much risk associated with a possible equities collapse.
    I'm not 100% certain, but during the past couple of C-Wave tops, you also had a roaring stock market.

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  56. Gary if you have some thoughts regarding my previous post (re: Gartman) I would appreciate it.
    Thanks

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  57. Sizing my positions this way also means I have not been 100% invested, as my focus is on overall risk if everything gets stopped out, not how much I can buy.

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  58. Gary

    What is the November low for USD.

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  59. There goes the breakout from Garys bull flag in gold.

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  60. Gary,

    The SoS for big name equities is getting substantial. It looks like the market isn't going to go higher for an extended period of time, but reverse or stagnate over the next few months because of high oil.


    If the markets are neat a top what is your outlook for SIL in the coming months if the markets are in decline?

    SLV is about 4% from its all time high. SIL is around 17% from it's all time high! I'm leaning towards it being a bargain but could be wrong. I remember hearing that in the 80s the miners increased 30-40x the increase in the metals. Do you see this happening again, and if so, do you think that most of these unbelievable miner gains won't be seen until the final bull end?

    In November or so SIL topped out AFTER silver topped out, I do expect this to happen again at the end of this C-wave. Do you as well?

    Thank You.

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  61. as mentioned, those miners and basket etf ie. gdx are leveraged to the metal, get a bit dragged with the main market which is trading downward.. (they are more volatile too)

    big money is slowly exiting equities and selling on up days. they are buying bonds.

    buy the precious metals for true stock market (equity) divergence at the moment.

    my read silver is overbought, gold neutral, and platinum over sold

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  62. Avann,
    I don't see it?

    Folks just be patient with your miners. Ultimately they will follow the price of gold and silver. It's only during a selling climax that the market has any effect on miners and once the selling pressure is removed they bounce back quickly.

    The only reason they got hit hard this time was because gold was moving down into a daily cycle low at the same time stocks got hit with a selling climax due to events in Japan.

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  63. I'm outta here for the day, maybe pop in later to take a peek. Good luck everybody.

    Phenomenal call on the USD, Gary. As much as our nature pushes us to think it's overdone, it continues lower.

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  64. Gary ... here it is again ...
    He draws a comparison between this earthquake and the one in 1989 that hit Tokyo.
    Basically, all the money needed to rebuild back then was pulled from North American markets and sent back to Japan. This had the effect of hitting NA markets hard ... he doesn't say but I assume metals as well ... and propping up the Japanese markets. Any money that went back to Japan and wasn't required immediately was put to work in Japanese equities.
    This effect did not occur until 2-3 weeks after the 1989 earthquake ... it took them that long to assess the costs to rebuild.
    His point is that this will happen again.

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  65. How irritating - why does GLD have to have a big gap today? Those almost always get filled...

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  66. Well I don't know how much money Japan has invested in the US but I think a new bear market has probably begun, but it has nothing to do with the earthquake or money going back to Japan.

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  67. Maybe Gartman is drugs ... was there actually a quake in Tokyo in 1989 ... I can't seem to find anything on it?

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  68. Gartman seriously presents his case as if it actually happened ... I don;t think it did ... WOW!!

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  69. I really dont know how Gartman has any subscribers who actually pay for that crap. His market timing on gold has been horrific.

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  70. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  71. I bougt some SIL july 27 calls yesterday. SIL is up 3.36% today, but no volume yet on the calls. Rather disappointing! I would have thought there would be good volume by now. looks like I should stick with SLV, SLW and and AGQ.

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  72. Indeed what a total A-Hole ... he retracted that whole comaprison saying that the 1989 earthquake did not ACTUALLY happen.
    He seriously made it sound like it actually happened.

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  73. WOW ... talk about having to do your own DD ... I would never have expected to actually question whether or not an earthquake actually happened! But something seemed fishy so I started googling it and nothing came up ... then 30 minutes later we get a retract from him. Again what an A-HOLE!

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  74. Battle lines for the day 1420 and 35

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  75. "Edwin said...
    my read silver is overbought, gold neutral, and platinum over sold"

    How do you play this?

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  76. Don't buy options on SIL, there is NO volume and the spread is horrendous. You ever want to get out in a panic you will find NO bids.

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  77. oa9200-

    Watch the dollar - everything else is just pickin' and singin'.

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  78. I believe the earthquake some people may be referring to was the 1995 one in Kobe, NOT Tokyo.

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  79. traderlady,

    I think I slept a wee bit better last night. I was watching the over night session but didn't want to get myself excited. I already mentally prepared myself if we open lower or we gap up and then drop. Looking pretty good so far, so let the train accelerate!

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  80. Romeo ... I went back and read, re-read and read again ... there is no question about it ... he made it sound like this scenario actually happened when in fact it was a "WHAT IF" scenario proposed my someone else back in 1989.
    Bottom line ... enough people were fooled that he had to send out a clarification.

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  81. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  82. Anyone else receiving duplicates of each message?

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