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Monday, March 7, 2011

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

The recent rally in gold, oil, and commodities in general has been extremely powerful. Despite protestations to the contrary by our clueless Fed president, it's very clear what is driving this massive commodity inflation when you look at this next chart. That's right we are now seeing the unintended consequences of printing money.

Just as soon as the dollar started to collapse commodities began to surge. And if you think it's bad now wait till the dollar breaks below the November pivot. When that happens, and it will happen, it will signal that we now have a yearly cycle that has topped in only 4 weeks and has already moved below the last yearly cycle bottom. That my friends is an incredibly bearish sign. 

At that point the market will no longer be able to delude itself that everything is OK. At that point inflationary pressures will surge out of control. At that point Bernanke will understand the magnitude of his catastrophic blunder when he ran QE2. And at that point it will be too late to stop.

Actually this path was already determined when Ben opted for QE1 to abort the debt cleansing process that was underway in 08 and 09. Yes he bought us a little time but the ultimate cost is going to be much greater than anyone could have foreseen. It would have been much better if the depression was allowed to run it's course. We would be most of the way through the pain by now and ready to come out the other side into a golden age. Instead we have another decade or more of misery ahead of us. All because our leaders don't have the foresight to see the consequences of their actions.

Now on a more immediate note the dollar is due for a dead cat bounce anytime now. When it does it should force a brief correction in gold, oil and commodities in general.




This will be your last buying opportunity before the final parabolic move begins in earnest. Once the dollar breaks below that November low all hell should break lose in the currency markets forcing all commodities, especially gold and silver into what will likely be one of the most powerful rallies in history.

616 comments:

  1. Jay, I pulled a little out of MDW and SWC. Dumped AZC altogether. Did real well with AZC, but it is a copper play like NAK and the copper chart seems to be saying good bye. The 3 silvers you mentioned, I am going to continue to hold. Intend to do the same as you. Move it to AGQ on a corrective move.

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  2. Gary, 1st paragraph says weeks instead of months if it matters.....

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  3. Brian,
    Weeks is correct. This intermediate cycle topped in only 4 weeks.

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  4. Gary,

    In your nightly update, for gold when talking about a dip below a number completing a swing high, is that just an intraday move or a close below that you're looking for?

    Thanks

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  5. Swings can be formed by intraday moves.

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  6. Wow! I had to go back and look at that chart. Sure enough it did.

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  7. Gary,

    You said: "Instead of trying to guess at a time or price that silver will correct from one will probably have better results if they watch the dollar for a bounce off the November support level."

    Are you saying this is the best way to determine a top in silver and, if so, what is the November support level (I assume this is also the pivot)?

    Thanks!

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  8. Steven,
    "or a swing low, whichever comes first"

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  9. Ted Butler made his private newsletter public today for those interested.

    The big surprise was in the silver COT, where the big 4 increased their net short position by 3000 contracts on the previously mentioned reduction of 1300 contracts in the total commercial net short position. This increase in the big four’s short position broke the pattern of a reduction in the concentrated short silver position that had been in force for months. The increase in the concentrated short silver position was so unexpected by me that I thought, at first, it must have been a mistake. Since the Bank Participation Report was released late yesterday, an hour or two after the COT, my first thought in the interim was that it would not be JPMorgan increasing its concentrated short position, but most likely the other three entities in the big four. After all, with all the negative attention (and losses) accruing to JPMorgan and its big silver short position, there would be no way JPM would have accounted for the 3000 contract increase in the COT for the big four.
    If the silver COT was a surprise, then the Bank Participation Report was a shocker. There was a net increase in the US bank category of 6000 contracts to 25,000 held net short in silver. JPMorgan’s net silver short position, which had decreased by 11,000 contracts over the preceding three months to 19,000, had suddenly ballooned to 25,000 contracts (125 million ounces). From my reading of both these reports, it appears that the big increase in silver short selling by JPM took place during the last COT reporting week, even for the BP Report. Before I continue, let me explain that I consider JPMorgan to effectively account for all or the bulk of the entire US bank category in the Bank Participation Report for a variety of mathematical reasons. However, it matters little if there is another US bank also holding a significant net short position in COMEX silver, as all that would mean is that two US banks are colluding to manipulate the price of silver and not just one bank acting alone.

    continued on next post

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  10. Two and a half years ago, I had a very similar experience of shock over a Bank Participation Report. This was before anyone knew that the Bank Participation Report even existed. The August 2008 Report caused me to write a series of articles that started with “The Smoking Gun” in the fall of that year.http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1219417468.php In turn, my analysis and writing led to the current CFTC silver investigation (still unresolved) and the revelation that JPMorgan was the big COMEX silver short by way of taking over Bear Stearns. I further believe that the revelation of the true size and nature of the concentrated silver short position has contributed to the current movement towards position limits by the CFTC.
    As much as the August 2008 Bank Participation Report was shocking, the current one is even more so. That’s because we know so much more today than we did back then. We have waited two and half years to hear anyone legitimately explain how a US bank holding a short position equal to 25% of world production isn’t manipulation. No explanation has been forthcoming, nor is it likely to ever be offered. We know now that concentration is the prime requisite for manipulation. To witness the most concentrated participant suddenly increase its silver short position by more than 30% is something almost beyond comprehension.
    continued on next post

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  11. Let me walk you through the mechanics of what just took place and then I’ll speculate on the motivation of JPMorgan increasing its silver short position so dramatically. Over the past two COT reporting weeks, it has been primarily a commercial versus commercial type affair. The big technical funds have largely refrained from adding to their net long silver position, even though prices have climbed very sharply. Two weeks ago the raptors (the smaller commercials away from the big 8) increased their net short position to 4000 contracts, the highest level in four years. The raptors were selling to the smaller unreported category traders who were buying. This week, the raptors bolted from their entire short position, buying it back completely and leaving them flat (not net long or short). JPMorgan was the sole seller to the raptors’ buying, resulting in the big increase in JPM’s short position.
    As far as the motivations behind this trading, the most plausible explanation for the raptors running from their newly initiated big short position is the stark reality that shorting silver has been a very bad deal. My guess is that the raptors did their homework on silver only after they put on the big short and started to lose money on rising prices. That homework persuaded them to get off the short side of silver pronto, which they did. JPMorgan’s motivation for suddenly and greatly increasing its silver short position is less clear and more troubling. My own guess is that the JPMorgan silver trader thought he had no choice but to sell many more contracts short in order to control the price and protect their existing short position. That’s because there was no one else left to sell. If JPMorgan didn’t sell, no one else would have (at prevailing prices). That’s the problem and it goes to the heart of the crime. The raptors didn’t want to sell, nor did the 5 thru 8 large traders. Ditto for basically all the other silver traders. That left JPMorgan as the sole silver seller, as the COT and Bank Participation Reports clearly document. Please think about this.
    continued on next post

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  12. We know that concentration in any market is to be avoided. The whole thrust of commodity law goes towards preventing concentration. We know that the ideal profile of a free market is where a wide diversity of market participants competes on both the buy and sell sides of the market. We also know that the most extreme state of concentration possible is where there is, effectively, only one buyer or one seller. Therefore, what the latest COT and Bank Participation Reports just confirmed was that the most extreme form of concentration possible just occurred during the latest reporting week.
    This is the key point – what would have happened if JPMorgan hadn’t sold short the additional 6,000 silver contracts (30 million oz) when they did? Asked differently, in the current market conditions, what price would have been required to induce other market participants to sell the 6,000 contracts if JPMorgan hadn’t sold? My guess is that would have taken a price over $40 or $50 to attract that much legitimate selling. The fact that JPMorgan was the sole seller is the clearest proof possible that silver has been manipulated.
    So egregious was this latest increase in JPMorgan’s short position that I am inclined to think that it may have been done on an unauthorized or rogue trader basis. Perhaps JPM management and the CFTC are not yet aware of it, seeing how recently it occurred. After all, the COT and Bank Participation Reports were only published less than 24 hours ago. (As is my custom, I will be sending this article to the Commission and JPMorgan and the CME Group).
    continued on next post

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  13. I realize that I am making serious allegations of violations of commodity law, as there is no market crime more serious than manipulation. At the very least, this new government data release is so disturbing that it should be addressed immediately. Silence on the part of JPMorgan, the exchange and the CFTC is no longer constructive. If my accusations are off-base, then I should be set straight. I’m not out to cause trouble; I am trying to help correct what I see as a very serious market problem.
    I can’t help but think that Chairman Gensler of the CFTC will be troubled by this recent action by JPMorgan to substantially increase its already concentrated silver short position. In recent speeches he has indicated his support for position limits to guard against concentration. Please scroll down to the section on position limits in this recent speech to see what I mean.http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/opagensler-71.htmlChairman Gensler also solicits your public comments on this issue, as I have done previously. I found it interesting that he singled out position limits in this speech for encouraging you to comment. By the way, the number of public comments on position limits is now close to 3,000, a truly remarkable outpouring of public sentiment. http://comments.cftc.gov/PublicComments/CommentList.aspx?id=965
    Please don’t assume that the sharp increase in short selling by JPMorgan is automatically bearish for the price of silver. Yes, such manipulative short selling in the past has led to sharp sell-offs and could again. But things do change and current conditions in silver are vastly different than they have been in the past. While we must be prepared for a sell-off (by not holding on margin), this situation could (and should) blow up in JPM’s face. They are increasingly isolated which makes them both dangerous and vulnerable. Most of you are holding silver from prices much below the current levels. This bestows on you a power that few newcomers to silver possess, namely, the power of a long term perspective and the ability to withstand short term price gyrations. You have a price cushion and the power of knowledge that should enable you to persevere against any short term manipulation. The proper approach is to hold silver to go much higher and not to lose your position, just as it has been all along.
    That aside, you should be disturbed enough about the revelations in the new COT and Bank Participation Reports to rattle on the cages of JPM, the CME and the CFTC. Just as a head’s up, I may make portions of this report available in the public domain if I conclude it will benefit subscribers. Let me think about it a bit. In the interim, please contact these parties if you feel so inclined. You know I will.

    Ted Butler
    March 7, 2011

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  14. If the banks are raising shorts it's simply because gold and silver are due for a daily cycle correction. Not some mysterious attempt to manipulate silver lower.

    We aren't the only ones in the world using cycle theory by a long shot. I guarantee every large firm in the world probably has a cycle analyst. And I'm certain JPM has one.

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  15. That may very well be true and I've had that thought myself. However, do you think the cycle in gold/silver will be changed if so many people are "playing" it, so to speak? Of course if you're just looking at the dollar that is a much bigger market and this point may be moot.

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  16. Is it possible minors may lead any stock market collapse (when it happens)and gold silver physical and ETF's trail

    I have less than 5% in juniors but thinking of moving them to agq or sil

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  17. WOW a picture says a thousand words! What a graphic presentation of what is happening real time.

    Gary, all I can say, is I am so thankful I was invited to your seminar and have learned so much from you and your bloggers. Hopefully, I won't do any more stupid moves (like I sold 500 shares of SLW because it was falling in January), listening to the gurus to cut your losses.

    I have one question, I spent all this weekend and today cleaning up my funds to get rid of all the clutter in Gold and silver funds and concentrating on your picks in silver and GLD. I have some funds to decide on keeping or just move into silver. Should I hang onto small amounts of GDX GDXJ right now or move those funds into Silver. I will be on vacation when the expected time comes to sell top of C wave and won't be by a computer day and night so I want to be prepared and not have a lot of sell buttons to push.

    Reading your blogs, helps knowing, I am not alone waiting on this big Wave to crest. YOu have a great group on board and hope to get more involved. But been busy reading and learning so far.

    Thanks again for being so forthright and no nonsense.
    Since I have been following you,
    I just delete all my other advisors, subscriptions and tipsters and told them to keep their tips and advice and their fees and take me off their list. I have found someone who honestly walks his talk and sticking with him. Thanks for providing a great service!

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  18. I just did a brief review of my last six months of trading in one of my brokerage accounts. A great exercise that I'm sure everyone here practices from time to time.

    Anyway, the message that glared out at me...again...is that I would benefit from less trading. Now, let me clarify, I have probably traded 1/10 as often in the last 12 months since really taking in some of the lessons I've learned from Gary's service, but I still have sold positions in the middle of intermediate cycles, each of which would be hugely more profitable had I just held on. My practice during the next leg of the bull will be to hold all positions I accumulate until the end of intermediate cycles, and then sell half.

    I just don't see the reason to jump in and out when the bull is so obviously trending higher. Next round I will accumalate a large stake at the end of the D-Wave/beginning of the A-wave, and will hold a core until the end of the C-Wave, trading around intermediate cycles. I got closer during this phase, but still see room for improvement.

    That's it. Keep up the great work Gary.

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  19. Since, I didn't hear anything back on my Annuity question with Fidelity, I just split it between Energy and Materials. Best I could do for commodities as they have no Gold fund, which I was told they had plenty of requests for, but they have none. I usually don't talk to Fidelity reps, cause last time I asked a question, the advisor scoffed at me and told me going all gold was too volatile...

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  20. fat boy,
    I just asked the same question, have similar small amounts in miners and wondering if i should just get rid of them and move to silver. I just don't have experience in miners, so not sure if they lead the way or follow.

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  21. Anyone on this blog have reading recommendations for commodity investing? New to the game and interested in learning about futures. Thanks in advance.

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  22. Anyone on this blog have any book recommendations for learning about commodities trading? Thanks in advance.

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  23. cs
    futures are pretty cut and dry. if you go to boarders and get anything they have on sale you will be fine. any broker should take time to coach you also.
    i have one broker who i bought a smt subscription for. he is on board with gary and real helpful if you want to speak to him

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  24. Gary, what makes you so certain of the C wave, dollar dead cat?
    I need to divest of some commodities and I sure hope you're right!

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  25. I have a question, I understand that we will sell silver at $50... will we sell GOLD at that time also, or does Silver lead the way. Just trying to be clear if we sell everything when silver is $50.

    thanks in advance... just trying to get things clear in my mind.

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  26. Gary

    Great job you are doing.

    My Question: Will HUI catch up with silver in the remaining C wave run or silver will again outperform till end. Please reply since my major holding (90%) is in HUI and so far it has performed half compared to physical silver.


    TIA

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  27. For those that have some time, read the "Decline and the Fall of the Roman Empire" by Gibbons.

    Or a cliffs note version on the economic reasons of why the empire fell: http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/fallromeeconomic/a/econoffall.htm

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  28. Mr Savage, you continue to proclaim the dawn of massive inflation....

    Could you please quantify it, if you dare...

    BTW, the first quarter is almost gone and little inflation on the horizon..

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  29. blueice...
    from a female shopper on this list who buys for her family, I have seen prices on food, clothing start to go up rapidly since the end of last year.
    Also, I notice that my banks offer to lock in a fixed rate over my low variable rate keeps sneaking in tiny increases on that fixed rate. That tells me times are a changing. Everyone's costs are going up. Is that not inflation?

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  30. All if these newbies come into the room and challenge Gary so often that it is becoming ridiculous.

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  31. IndiaInvestor,

    yes, Gary expects silver to outperform everything else

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  32. Bluice, it's one thing to be blind, and another to be arrogant and blind.

    I'm a real US mfr of textiles. Cotton has risen 1 yr nearly 100%. It's real. I pay it.

    Polyester, as in oil based, has risen 60% or more.

    I passed along all I could without markup.

    You're in a dreamland.
    Oh, and the cost of oil, as in what it costs to fill one's car has risen 10% in the past 30 days.

    But don't let reality bite you, as I have seen that Prozac works very well.

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  33. blue,
    what world are you living in? Seriously, you don't see you grocery bill raising, gas, heating, clothes? Or do you just charge it and fail to take notice? Wake up!

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  34. I can honestly say I have seen major inflation in my accounts since subscribing to SMT.

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  35. Out of my GC at 1430, which I got in around 1415. Its testing that 4hr channel downtrend again, dollar raising... So, a quick 15 pt profit would suffice for now. I will add those above new high or around swing low/1400.

    Before someone jumps on me :) I still have my core position that I will hold old turkey. This low-risk trade was with extra leverage at tight stops.

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  36. silver on the daily chart seems to have done nothing more than a gap fill

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  37. Giant,easily readable patterns in silver.

    The turn at the bottom, with fat, sluggish, long bars.

    The giant W's in Silver and gold.
    And the giant parabolas, now concluding in the straight up rise.

    This cost me a night of sleep. Dammit.

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  38. Gary, on the 60 min chart, the MACD hasn't even begun to rise.

    This is divergence, yes?

    Should I consult MLMT?

    Does this mean a lot more is in store?

    But we've gone above the top BB.

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  39. Looks like gold, silver and the dollar are all pushing higher right now.

    One of them is going to blink...

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  40. IMO, this is the breakout of gold, having been up, down and back to the prior Dec high.

    Brief consolidation as in moments, and then if it rises, it's just going to go gangbusters.

    Silver's at 36.30 more or less, still shy of the prior top of "yesterday!!", but this has been a long, steady run, and it's time to rest.

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  41. any of you guys working with RBS turbo's?

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  42. Nice post Gary. I hope you're right. Cycles say the dollar dead cat bounces here, correct?

    Slumdog, get some sleep man! Sleep deprivation kills correct judgement. We need you fresh in the morning, so rest up!

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  43. I'm confused.

    It looks to me that the Yearly cycle for the dollar topped in one month.
    And the current intermediate cycle topped in 2 weeks, the week ending 2/18.

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  44. My system's stop has now risen to 1413.8,April gold.

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  45. Hi Gary

    Thanks for the update. What do you see happening to currency pairs such as GBP:AUD especially due to to the nature of teh Australian economuy being so commodities weighted.

    Rgds
    An avid reader.

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  46. All kinds of new people here. What is going on ?

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  47. Hi Gary,

    Whats your opinion on World peace? Do you think it will be achieved in this C wave?

    Love you by the way!!!!!! :))))

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  48. Gary,
    apologies for the spelling. My seasonal model is also seeing some weakness heading into around 1st week of May which could pose a good point to buy gold.

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  49. Gary expects the D wave to start around then so I dont think he'll agree

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  50. Terrill

    I think you asked (and Fatboy too?)about 'miners' and how ill they perform...you said

    'I just don't have experience in miners, so not sure if they lead the way or follow.'

    Gary doesnt recommend ind. miners , since they can have ind. risk (such as floods,earthquake, etc) yet you will see many on here discuss them and trade/invest in them (I am one),especially producers with good earnings. Back to your question...

    So far some of our miners are leading ,blowing away gold and surging with Silver EX:(Bought EXK, AXU, and AG, SLW on Jan 25th and never let go, bought GPL at $2.50 and $2.75...along with AGQ these are up 80% to over 100% , GDXJ is only about 30% and GDX less than 20%).

    Hope that helped a little (and Gary recommends SLW and AGQ )

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  51. Swing in place, lets see if this move amounts to anything.

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  52. People asking about exit strategies and such, are asking for too much, just pay up and join the service! Its not that expensive people!
    Its really unfair to ask Gary to disclose it for free or other members to share what Gary puts in his nightly reports.

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  53. vish

    world peace? really? lets hear your take on world peace and how you think that is shapeing up

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  54. regarding Vish's comment

    It must have been a joke ,because he said ( I think HE?) will world peace be accomplished in THIS C-wave-

    -however it was ended with this remark
    "Love you by the way!!!!!! :)))) "

    so I guess that's a nice start LOL

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  55. TZ, Either the subscriber base doubled or Kitco/Hamster disciples.

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  56. Hey Brian

    You and Jayhawk look at charts the way I do,so I thought I'd share this interesting one I just found (and have not heard of on this blog yet)

    Disclaimer; For now I am in about 6 stocks and not trading at this point, just juggled between them a bit. (I too sold my AZC a bit back ..it does well for trading, it repeatedly dives to the 10-20sma, so I had to trade it. done 4 now.

    But check out 'LODE' on a 6 month chart anyways. Broke its downtrend line , decent volume,etc etc . I do not know this company ,just that they are drilling and finding high grade results. I do not know if they're producer. I will NOT be buying this here,but its a new one for the watch list.

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  57. Bull flag forming on HUI?

    Makes me wonder if the PMs pullback the miners will advance.



    James

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  58. Anyone want to guess how long the dollar will rally for?

    I think very short maybe 3 days. I was hoping for a dip in silver but I think we will be lucky if this just trades sideways.

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  59. Thanks Alex
    I follow Gary (April 09) so agq sil slw is the G train and best for the simple folk like me.
    Only picked up a few small positions to play in juniors again because it's hard not to!!! just. A little exk pzg goro axu
    Tempted to cash in and swap to garys 'big three' now
    Apart from simplification I understood bigger funds = easier to fill sell orders come the day?

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  60. What about going 100% AGQ? Why do I need SIL and SLV? My portfolio is about $100k.

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  61. Mish, Hussman on QE

    people expect that a year or two from now, goods and services will be more expensive. But if they are holding cash or money market securities, it is clear that interest earnings will not make up for those higher prices. So what do people predictably do? They hoard commodities now. When does it stop? At the point where commodities are priced high enough that they are expected to have the same negative return, relative to a broad basket of consumer goods, as cash is expected to have.

    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/hussman-on-qe-and-iron-law-of.html

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  62. If you are going to go 100% AGQ you have to be able to emotionally handle huge volatility.

    Could you survive a 20% draw down without freaking out and selling at the bottom?

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  63. TZ/Brian, can't say I know the others, but a new (as in 3 days ago) subscriber here.

    Still watching more than talking, but thought I'd say hi.

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  64. Because if you were 100% AGC, you would need to be tough enough to ride some pretty volatile swings.

    Also, AGQ is no good for core position as it tends to underperform on the way down.

    So most people have a core position in SIL or GLD, and a trading position in AGQ.

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  65. James r

    so far dollar up, Gold up, Silver up.

    Or maybe more of a sideways move (downward sloping flag) for some extended miners ,showing strength yet allowing the 10 or 20sma to catch up a bit...like EXK , the 10 & 20 sma are at $8 area.

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  66. Welcome CMT, I, too, am a new sub
    and smart to listen more then ask dumb questions.

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  67. CMT

    welcome

    Traderlady , have read some of your posts , there are no dumb questions ,we all need to learn , and if there were...yours wouldn't qualify anyways :)

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  68. Gary, did you sign up 20 new subs overnight? :)

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  69. Alex, That chart looks eerily similar to MDW's on long term basis. Definitely going on the watch list.

    Thanks

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  70. Arun, thanks,, yes I am in, core of physical and gold and silver miners, plus small futures position, looking for 1450. I have close stop on futures though~

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  71. Me I would not dare to make an unqualified statement on the blog
    So back to reading and learning I go
    For real new newbies and not just semi new newbies Gary has outlined exit strategy on premium, just read the last few months it's all in there
    My question on liquidity and filling sell orders anyone?

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  72. Alex, When we all have our private jets, lets have a reunion in Sarasota ,FL.

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  73. That was one hell of a bounce on the USD, yet it didnt even make a dent in silver's momentum!
    What a waste!

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  74. Nice dollar rally again this morning and swing in place, pieces are falling into place to script.

    Considering the size of the rally, the metals are showing nice strength, only confirms the action to come, IMO. Crazy to trade around this puppy, only trade would be adding powder or reallocation.

    Hard to imagine having any more fun than we had in Aug through Dec.

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  75. Gary,

    Should I be worried that my miners didn't gap up 10% again this morning? :)

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  76. TraderLady-

    That's always been part of my plan - live outside Key West and fly a Cessna up to the Buccaneer games. ;-)

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  77. Maybe we're finally moving into a cycle low?

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  78. Gary, As a new sub, I do not think I could take the 20% possible draw down beyond what I paid on AGQ. I do not have the wood from fall like others. What would be a more conservative mix by using SIL,SLW, and AGQ.

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  79. SB, sure seems that way, which is great.

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  80. Traderlady,

    You can try SLV the silver ETF instead of AGQ.

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  81. I will be looking to jump back in with roughly 3k in to April SLW 45 calls in the next 3 days the price has already fallen more than a dollar from its high yesterday. I'd like to know what others are looking at

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  82. Traderlady

    Its crazy that you said that...I'm going there in JUNE to vist my best friends wifes teenage living area! Are we gonna all have Jets by the :) YAY!

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  83. Thanks RA, I can add it to the mix but have some AGQ.

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  84. Haggerty,

    $3k is arbitrary, is $3k a decent chunk of your portfolio or just lottery money you could afford to lose in the hope you make big?

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  85. Alex, My home but Netjet always a second choice. lol

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  86. Traderlady,

    SLV will probably be less volatile than SLW and SIL; and of course AGQ which is double leverage silver.

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  87. I really think that Gary has a crystal ball... :-)

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  88. Traderlady...'Have jets by then'- (typo)

    Brian

    Yes, that chart (LODE)caught my eye, I just want to do a little research and see if they produce at all , or lose money.

    Their exploration is going very well and the price increase may reflect possible buy out target. anyways, thought I'd share that for the watch list

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  89. TL,
    Just keep your position size smaller if you are worried about volatility. Otherwise place your trade trigger and then turn off your computer.

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  90. I see an inverse head and shoulder forming on HUI

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  91. I'd like to see people get shaken out of their miners buy the close or early tomorrow morning.

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  92. Arun, I added one mini gold at 1424, my stop is 1410..... goldies could form a intraday low today

    ReplyDelete
  93. traderlady, Netjets is always the best choice :-)

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  94. poly

    just fun money really not going to lose my shirt about 4% of portfolio.

    just limped in and bought 5 slw 44 at 2.85 april. can't see it going much lower. Ill wait to see how the rest of the day goes

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  95. All of this certainty about $50 silver and the big C wave blowoff that's a-comin' and buying the bottom of the D wave--it's making me very nervous. Seems like when traders are certain of the future, that's when the market throws a curve ball at you.

    Silver might not get to $50. What if it gets to $48 and the D wave begins crashing down fast?

    Or what if silver blows right thru $50 and doesn't stop till $60?

    What if the upcoming D wave is a sideways consolidation instead of a sharp and fast drop? How will you buy the bottom of that one?

    It's easy to say I'm going to sell the top of the C wave and buy the bottom of the D wave, but in real time how will you know when that top and bottom is in?

    Just seeing all this talk about how rich we're all gonna be makes me wonder what is the market going to do to shake us out of that euphoria????

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  96. Looks like we have a swing high - buying opportunity up ahead!

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  97. NYBOT dollar index continuous just touched 77.

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  98. Ken,
    You are just radically increasing the odds of a loss with these tight stops. This is a bull market. What earthly reason could you have for stopping out of a winning position?

    And one certainly doesn't want to stop out at the bottom of a daily cycle correction. The time to sell would be if the bounce out of that correction fails to make new highs and then makes a lower low.

    Tight stops at meaningless levels are how big money takes your capital away from you.

    One of the biggest mistakes people make is to put a tight stop on their trades. All that does is guarantee the trade never gets a chance to work.

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  99. Pima - relax my friend. All those questions are answered with a very cheap subscription to Gary's newsletter.

    And it is only this blog where people are of the same opinion regarding the C-wave. Go check out Slope of Hope for a different view.

    ReplyDelete
  100. Shalom, I'm hoping for the washout tomorrow.There is an intraday trendline on gold in low 1420's I'm hoping will get people to buy and then cough up with one more downmove.That would also make sense with my system and some fractals I'm looking at.

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  101. What is the world is the NYBOT dollar index continuous? Are you talking about the front month? Its just March or June? None of those have touched 77 yet, close, but not there yet.

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  102. Gary, Always excellent advice. I shall have my wood for shorting the D wave. When you short the D wave do you do etf's or indiv. stocks on energy, tech.

    ReplyDelete
  103. Strellsy,

    I'm a sub and I know that Gary is excellent at keeping his subs on track. My post was more of a rant than anything.

    (But it does make me nervous when a large group of traders talk with certainty about the future like we have all found the holy grail. I just don't trust the market to be as accommodating as this talk would have us believe. :-)

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  104. Strelly,
    I think Pima is one of the "older subs" :)

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  105. I told you to worry, didn't I? I covered my shorts last night during Hong Kong, reshorted everything on that pop this am. I continue to rule. You all will be slaves on one of my global estates.

    Robert Pretcher will be made king of the world when all this is over. When his deflationary crap storm over takes the globe, those of us in US Bonds will dominate the weaker, lame gold and silver bugs.

    Volume analysis says silver now headed for .27 cents. Gas will be .5 a gallon. Penny candy stores will take the nation by storm.

    I'm now long a 50X US dollar bull fund. Short everything else. Tim Knight has hired me as his chief TA consultant for his new hedge fund.

    Suckers.

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  106. Gary, if we can finally add more to our position via "the plan" ... we will have a stop but assume it will a stop the fails the entire intermediate cycle ... correct?

    ReplyDelete
  107. Traderlady,
    I will not short PM. They are in a bull market and I don't short bull markets.

    I will look for a sector with impaired fundamentals that is stretched and in jeopardy of a regression to the mean event. Tech and energy are both candidates at the moment, but not until the 3 year dollar cycle bottoms.

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  108. vuvvy,

    Very much appreciate your updates! I hope to top off my position when we get close to your stop.

    Looks like that stop gets updated daily, right?

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  109. aaron,

    The code on the ICE NYBOT futures exchange for the continuous dollar index is DXc1.

    It is not a tradable contract.

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  110. vuvvy,

    Your saying your looking at one more down day is that correct?

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  111. Avann,
    I'm not really sure what you just asked me.

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  112. Spreads are tightening on AGQ calls.

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  113. vuvvy,

    Where are you?? You posted at 3:30 AM!! Maybe that's morning where you live? Or you're just a night owl?

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  114. vuvvy,

    I'm also sitting tight right now. I'd like to see lower prices tomorrow, or even pay today's prices but after a couple sideways days.

    Either way, the only way I add today is if we get really sharp panic move lower (like -7 or 8% in our usual names).

    pima,

    I'm not even selling all my stuff at $50 silver. Sure, it might not get quite there in the C-wave, or it might overshoot by $10, but that's just the game. The important thing is to be long the monster bull, it has a long way to go. Even if you had sells at $50, and silver only gets to $49 before heading lower, the great thin about a bull is you'll have many more opportunities to sell at favorable prices. :)

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  115. No worries Gary, I re-read the newsletter and got my answer ... I'm trying not to put too much info into my question ... I'm good

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  116. Anyone think this s a good time to buy SLW as it dropped nearly 2$ or is there more downside before the C wave?

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  117. RA, now that makes sense. Also note that the 77 is derived from charting the contracts which use different numbers, so it might be the equivalent of 77.10 on your index for instance.
    I personally see resistance come in at 77.50 if the USD somehow takes out 77 convincingly. Hoping it doesnt though.

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  118. MLIL, I laughed out loud at your recent post!

    (yeah, Prechter rules!)

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  119. Just to clarify the C-wave has been ongoing since $860 back in April 09.

    This is just the final leg up...well I expect it to be a final leg up based on the dollars three year cycle low.

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  120. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  121. I bought SLW and AGQ this morning, a bit more of each.

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  122. Pima,
    FWIW if gold just consolidated sideways then it wouldn't be a D-wave it would be a consolidation in an ongoing C-wave (this is what happened this past summer).

    D-waves are severe regression to the mean events spawned by a parabolic rally. We need the parabolic rally before we can get the D-wave.

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  123. Pima-

    You voiced a niggling concern I have about too much optimism from various blogs and industry experts. I'm not going to do anything differently, but it's really raised my 'wary' factor.

    I was also thinking about the c-wave falling short of 50, blowing through 50, etc...and concluded that it will have to be a line of scrimmage call. I figure we'll just have to sort it out when we get there.

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  124. SB,

    Thanks. Yeah, that's another thing about $50 silver. If all of Gary's subs push the sell button at 50, I believe that in itself will cause a severe correction!

    I don't have any limit sell orders at present, we'll see what the market does. As you said, It's a bull market!

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  125. Unless over 20% of Gary's 1000+ subs are hedge fund managers, that wont happen :)

    ReplyDelete
  126. Pima, I will post my stop daily and yes it normally moves up but at times will flatten. This gold monster pretty much has taken control of my life since 2002 and i'm up at all kinds of strange hours:( My plan is to let my system trigger and then see what happens the rest of the day b4 entering additional positions, and then putting in some reasonable stops below LOD in new positions in case something unexpected happens.

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  127. AXU is holding support at the neckline of the IHS.

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  128. Miyagi,
    If you want to add to your position you have to have courage to buy the dips when the bull rests. The last two one day dips (which happen to be on the last two Thursdays) I bought AGQ and SLW calls and was handsomely rewarded for buying on those dips.

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  129. This lady is pretty good...I recall hearing her interviewed on KWN years back and her calls on gold were on on the money.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/6_Louise_Yamada_-_$80_Silver,_$2,000_Gold_%26_$140_Oil.html


    With gold near all-time highs and silver at multi-decade highs, King World News interviewed Louise Yamada, well known for her astounding work on Wall Street. Louise had some extraordinary targets on silver and oil, and when asked gold she stated, “Gold looks fine as it is moving to a new high. Gold is probably on its way to $1,500 and then $2,000. Silver is outperforming right now, but they take turns so that is normal. Gold remains in a structural bull market that was initiated in 2002.”

    When asked about silver Louise remarked, “Silver has 60% industrial usage, but because there are still the monetary concerns out there, silver represents a less expensive alternative to owning gold.

    I think that silver has lifted out of a 30 year base and the whole concept of the longer the consolidation, the greater potential upside. Silver is clearly in a structural bull market.

    The point and figure calculations off of this base are $40, $45, $60, $75 and $80 over months to years.” The higher end of those number would put silver well into all-time high territory in nominal terms. She commented, “These are short and intermediate and longer-term targets over a period of years.”





    Also, can someone give me the link of that Youtube video which showed the performance of silver in outside US hours vs inside US hours?

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  130. Haggerty, yes one more down day but we all know gold loves to throw curves, screwballs and the occasional spitter:(

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  131. Gary,

    I hear you about the D wave. I just wonder whether the market will behave well enough to conform to that expectation.

    You bring up a good point though. What if this C wave extends? Instead of a D wave this summer, what if we get only sideways consolidation and then yet another leg up in the C wave??

    This is more of a rhetorical question not really expecting an answer. If that were to happen, you would start to see it and report on it in your nightly updates. I'm glad I'm a sub :-)

    (Just be careful out there on those rocks, eh? That brain of yours is very valuable! The Matterhorn looks like one hair raising climb. You have any interest in doing Mt. Blanc while you're over there?)

    ReplyDelete
  132. Miyagi,

    I'll focus more on the metal or a miner index than the individual name I'm looking to buy. Once I'd buy the index or metal, then I purchase the names on my list.

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  133. For those waiting to add. If this is the move down into a daily cycle low then we can't get a bottom until a swing low is formed. Instead of trying to guess at a bottom just wait for the swing or if you want to try and pick a bottom I outlined my plan in last nights report.

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  134. Backtesting the rising trendline I mentioned yestesrday on the daily chart. If we break back below we may get the setup for the daily cycle low we are looking for.

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  135. I think we will all be competing with SLW at selling at 50.00. Didn't the CEO say they will start hedging there? Maybe better to sell at 47.00.

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  136. I'm not letting go of any of my shares SB. You can't have em! :)


    Thanks Brian-I just about did that yesterday, but don't want to get cute.


    Wingman and BobLH- I tend to agree. Not sure this bull is going to give us neat, perfect daily swing lows to gauge and buy to the penny. Just add on large sell offs during AM hours a piece at a time if you are looking to get back in or get more in play.

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  137. The last $5-$7 of the Silver run to the top will be very far from orderly and likely to occur over just a handful of days. I doubt there will be many here capable of riding it to the top, in spite of Gary's words. Hell $40's are going to be difficult for most.

    But from current levels, $45, $47 or $52 will all reward beyond any dream.

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  138. Gary,

    You mentioned in your report last night that the dollar dead cat bounce could last 3-5 days. You also mentioned $77. My question is, are you looking more at a time frame or a price for this dead cat dollar bounce?

    ReplyDelete
  139. Actually it's an outstanding idea if they catch the top of the C-wave.

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  140. Thnx. And I can't even tell you how much I've benefited from those nightly reports.
    Anyone on this forum not subscribing to the reports, you're blowing it. The best $200 I've ever spent!

    ReplyDelete
  141. The last 2 sessions...Hmmm, pretty blatant. Silver and gold rocketing in NY, then BAM. Please. I know Gary doesn't believe the manipulation, but it's reallllly hard to ignore that type of action.

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  142. I just finished cleaning house on miners and went with Gary's plan. :) There's a sale going on!
    I think I will take Gary's advice now and just turn off the computer, see you all in a couple weeks!

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  143. Pima,keep in mind my system has elements of time in the parameters but the signals themselves sre not based on time. There's nothing saying we can't make new highs before we hit any sort of sell signal.

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  144. PIMA

    just to add to your C-Wave top thoughts. )FWIW)

    I have actually been 'trading' in the gold bull since 2001 , when TIM ORD called the selling climax and got us into Gold at $285.00 He had us buying HL at .90 etc

    MY personal PLAN is price projections now based on Fib projections taken from fib retracements along the way. At the top of previous C-waves , they always Overextend my projections , and most stocks Gap up BIG (sometimes 2 or 3 days in a row)...and if Silver gaps to 46, then 48 , then gaps again...I am out. Or HUGE up days ,days in a row .

    Usually everyone is saying (on CNBC)at that point that silver could double by summers end and hit $80 to $100. sell :)

    If we get to $50 and I dont see a huge gap up/reversal, or a couple $1+ days in a row...I may sell half and ride a stop up in case we go to higher projections.

    As time goes on my fib price projections will change slightly, so its a flexible plan. Its NEVER caught the exact top , but I keep almost all of my gains.

    just read POLYS post...thats how I see it in a nutshell too.

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  145. If you trade the metals and dont believe in manipulation, you simply arent paying attention.
    Jayhawk, thought you might find this relevant...
    https://marketforceanalysis.com/resources/Published-Articles/Gold-market-is-not-fixed-its-rigged.pdf

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  146. Poly,
    reward beyond any dream? That's a bit of an over statement. Also, who is to say that 39 isn't the top? You're talking about these higher targets as if it is a given. So far I understand that even Gary's target is nothing more but an educated guess.

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  147. traderlady

    you live in sarasota? i'm from annamaria island. i moved to delaware in 1999

    ReplyDelete
  148. Alex, Don't know if this is on your watchlist, but it is putting a handle on a nice cup base. Both short term and long term. MMG

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  149. Price fixing in the 60's when the currency was backed by gold doesn't mean in today's purely fiat monetary system that there is manipulation.

    And price swings also don't mean there is manipulation going on. It just means the market disagrees with your personal view of the future.

    It's why we use cycle analysis and sentiment as a guide to help us determine when those swings will occur.

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  150. Alex, Nice post on your C wave experiences.

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  151. Gary, you make excellent points. Futures contracts are hard to trade and they represent 1% of my capital, I wonder why I do it,, but it is the challenge I guess. My stop of 1410 could be the daily cycle low, but I would be quick to buy back if I see volume come in on the bounce off a low. I do not want to be out of the market (very long) until you give the C top call... I am glad I found your service!

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  152. Basil,

    If you don't expect it to trade up to $50, then you will NEVER ride it to $50.

    There are no certainties, I know that, but my comments are not to be construed as if I believe there are. I'm playing an expectation to have a chance to realize it!

    If it doesn't work out, we stop out for a very handsome gain.

    "Dreams" in the trading sense. If you can make 150% gains in 4 months, then you shouldn't be here :)

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  153. Terrill,

    Good plan. But don't forget to turn on the computer each evening to read Gary's nightly update!

    (I'm assuming you're a subscriber. If not, sign up today! Best money you will ever spend :-)

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  154. Brian

    Thats a really sweet looking chart ( was on my list, took off some gold miners to focus on junior silvers more).Great volume up, Light sellers now- Thank you.

    I"m actually watching MNEAF. I owned it before and bought the breakout in SEPT 3 and it never sold off (went sideways) so I held and it tripled. It and AG was my GPL of that run :)

    Looks like the chart of EXK and AXU and SVM on a 6 month , so I am debating getting back in with a few 1000 shares.Waiting for a bigger volume increase upward - Room to run if it breaks out with good volume.

    Simple daily price target on A-B-C type move would be $3.70 +,

    but wkly target A-B-C up is roughly $4.50+

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  155. Thanks, ALEX.

    You have any projections regarding gold or GLD?

    (I have gone against Gary's suggestion to go all in on silver--but don't tell him or I will be in deep yogurt--I have some deep in the money GLD calls.)

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  156. Gary,

    It's an outstanding idea if they're hedging a year of production. But if it's going to continue further than that and hedging becomes a policy -- not so outstanding.

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  157. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  158. oooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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  159. aw man, Beano was right all along! :)

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  160. Paul, Slumdog, Terrill, yes I understand there is a great deal of inflation in food, commodities, and of course our good friend, goo!

    I would like a reply from, Mr Savage, regarding his inflation expectations for 2011....

    He has been extremely vague about specifics regarding his claim of impending "massive" inflation...

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  161. Pima,

    ;)

    I was just kidding, you don't think I "can't" watch this evolve according to Gary's plan. I enjoy the learning process following Gary and am a subscriber since Feb. Wish I had found him in Jan.
    I was invited to the SMT seminar and I was sold. Told the rest of my tipsters, advisors and services to take a hike and keep the fees I paid. I have joined on with Gary and his group and cannot believe what a wonderful service he provides for the price. I'm here til he isn't anymore!

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  162. MMG, is sitting on large, high-grade silver resources, in Mexico. The problem, is that the Silver will be a by-product from their Zinc mine. The company has suffered from lowsy P.R., over the years.

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  163. Geez where have you been for the last two years? We are already seeing it.

    Gas is up 100%, oil 200%. Silver 250%, cotton, grains, soybeans. The list goes on and on. All the money printing has nad is spiking commodity inflation.

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  164. That was in response to Bluices comment which it appears he deleted.

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  165. Jeff, Small world! Anna Maria is beautiful. I have been here 9 years in Palmer Ranch :)

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  166. SLW fell back into it's rising channel going back to the intermediate bottom and currently bouncing off the 50% channel line on the 60 min. Bottom of channel at about 41 today.

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  167. PIMA

    I had 3 price targets for GLD on the Aug run were
    1) 134.50+
    2) $142.32+ and
    3)$144.90
    It hit $139.54 ( so stronger than the 1st projection, closer to second).

    My current projections are 1)$154.26+
    2)$164.36+
    3)$167.49

    so I say Near $160+ by the end of this run (total parabolic blow up would add to this end move).

    If it can clear this resistance and get going, the second target

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  168. traderlady,

    wow
    i was born in manatee hospital in 65. i liked it there, but i am doing better in delaware. wages are better here. 2,000 sunburns were enough for me =)

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  169. thanks, Alex.

    Yeah, I think 1600 gold is possible during this runup. That would correspond to GLD being in the neighborhood of 160.

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  170. The USD was climbing steadily there for a while until it bumped into 77 and turned down. Was that big? The metals don't seem to have noticed yet.

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  171. Traderlady and Jeff

    Since I am visiting Sarasota in June/July...what am I looking at , 90 degree's? I have only been to Florida in Nov and Jan and March , and it was quite nice. Living in New England, it was a good change in January leaving 10-20 degree's behind!Great here in the spring,summer,fall tho!

    Also, my email from my friend says we need to go to Bangkok, Daiquiri Deck and Siesta beach...so see you there if you are familiar with those places ;)

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  172. SLW second from the top of the list of BoW today (so far)

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  173. Ralph Macchio sent this
    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3000

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  174. MrMiyagi said...

    BoW?


    BEWARE OF WEAKNESS.


    Not good guys and gals...Not good.

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  175. alex
    those places were out of my circle
    my recommendation would be
    1) mote marine aquarium. its about a 2 hour visit. i think it has 200 100gallon tanks one 5,000 gallon fish tank. if you like that stuff.
    2) a drive north from there up longboatkey up to anna maria island. the north end of the island is a reastraunt called " the sandbar" very nice with a outside deck. go at sundown and watch the sun set while you eat.
    all the beaches are nice but where the sandbar is, has to be the nicest.
    disclaimer i grew up there =)

    have fun

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  176. BoW = Buying on Weakness

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=topnav_2_3002

    Gary covers this in the Terminology Document. If you're a subscriber, you definitely want to read that and become familiar with the terms in the document.

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  177. Thanks pimacanyon, bookmarked.

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  178. gary
    could you go on cnbc while they are doing the show and give them a rebuttle everytime they open there mouth.

    they are saying the dollar is getting a bid under it. they say its up from here

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  179. tell them about the horror show about to unfold

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  180. Alex, I am from Maine and now not looking back! FL, Marina Jack Restraurant nice here (sunset cruises too) and also Casey Key for a drive. Definitely park your car across from the Fish House at Blackburn point. Walk the North private end of Casey up to Steven King's driveway. 2 big openings along the Gulf. OR just drive it. Anymore ideas let me know.
    I know the golf courses. Women like St Armands Circle,too

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  181. trader lady

    yes st armands circle is a mile from mote marinelab. i forgot about that

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  182. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  183. Geez TZ, don't you want to help pay off our national debt instead of France or my FL taxes.LOL

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  184. Thanks Jeff and Traderlady

    I will be checking those out, I love outdoor decks to dine and have a drink w/the sunset! much appreciated.
    and Traderlady...Maine , so you know what deep snopw looks like !! My friends are moving back to Sarasota nxt year , maybe Bradington. So they've asked us to come look in june w/ them 1 day and relax for a week.

    TZ

    The reunion in Sarasota was just the warm up , gets us all to Florida to relax, then from there we Island hop the Caribbean and then Africa, Italy ,greece and Ireland. Also open to suggestions.

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  185. From Kevin Depew at Minyanville:
    Silver records a TD Sequential 13 Sell signal today - next 12 days could see some selling. However, we are also on Bar 7 of an overlapping Sell Setup, which requires bar 8 or 9 (Wed/Thurs) to be higher than the high on Mon/Tues to perfect. Also, if we close above the TD Reference Close Up level at 35.91, that further muddies the waters. On higher time frames, we are a minimum 2 weeks away from a WEEKLY sell signal for silver.
    Watch the Russell 2000 today - as we had a down close yesterday, and it closes above 828.62 today, followed by an up open tomorrow, this will qualify a TD propulsion Up momentum level, with a target at 862. This could show us where the general market is headed in the short term.

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  186. tz

    20,000,000 in my pocket and i would be hitting the mexican joints i know of there. get my stomach full of my favorite tostadas. in florida they put cabbage insead of lettuce. mmmm

    when i was little my family went to st tommas. the port sold lobster by the dock. they ranged from $2 to $6 . i think we ate lobster for 10 straight meals

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  187. Alex, Look up Marina Jack for sunset
    drinks or the Tiki bar at Lido Beach Resort on Lido Key. Bradenton Beach and Anna Maria as per Jeff.

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  188. Terrill, your comment about Fidelity not having a gold fund. They do -- it's ticker is FSAGX. It could be that you can't access it from your account. From one of my retirement accounts, I can (and it's 80% of that fund through the C-wave), but from the other, I cannot. It is quite the underperformer though, compared to gdxj. It's so big it can only have majors. Still... it's better then everything else they offer, although two others to look at if you have them available for your annuity are FFGCX (global commodity fund, doing better than the gold fund lately) and perhaps energy funds like FSNGX (natural gas) which is cyclical and I'm close to punting that one for a while.

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  189. Oops, forgot Chart House on Longboat.
    Thristy!

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  190. SLw just does not want to stay down...

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