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Thursday, March 31, 2011

COMMENT CLEANER & 6 MONTH OFFER

I'm going to be away from the blog for the weekend at a national weightlifting meet. For the weekend only I will run a $100 6 month special. That's $20 off the normal 6 month rate.

Here is the link to the premium site. Scroll down to the lower right hand side of the home page and click on the Subscribe link. Enter  in the promotional code box and click continue. You will be linked to a page with the discounted subscription offer.

See ya when I get back...hopefully uninjured and with another national title under my belt. 

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982 comments:

  1. Good Morning All,

    Bob, I think you were saying that you were going to short AGQ when you think we are starting the D wave by buying puts. I think Wes on the blog was saying that he bought calls for the last part of the C wave on AGQ and offered close to half of the spread and it was taken after a few minutes of sitting there. I would really like to know what you are doing if thats ok when the time comes. I'd like to play the D wave too. I will use a small part of my portfolio, but even that can make a big difference for a guy like me.

    TIA

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  3. Gary: It's really something to be so highly skilled in two different areas (three if you count---I think it was judo, right?) It just shows what focus, determination, and persistence (and talent) can do! Good luck!

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  4. Have a great time Gary. May it go well with you. Why don't you bring back a world record with you while you're at it.

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  5. Shalom

    A waterfall decline of our favorite confetti would be nice to see.

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  6. Lets see if gold can close above 1438 today...should be interesting.

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  7. Sure would Haggerty, although a slow steady leak is fine by me as well. :)

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  8. Yea I guess you don't want to draw too much attention this way the average person can't tell that your slowly stealing whatever they have left!

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  9. I noticed yesterday that they want to add some other currencies to the basket. Anything to shore up the dollar.

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  10. Gary one word for your lifting FOCUS.Don't think about the "other things".

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  11. Really starting to look good here.

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  12. I'm using my highly complex TA analysis system to evaluate the volume trends on this blog. Judging by the huge 1000+ comment posts we've had recently I feel a breakout is imminent.

    Yee haaaaw. Good luck riding this bull all!

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  13. DG,
    Yes it was Judo and powerlifting when I was a teenager. Olympic lifting since age 16.

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  14. Good luck Gary. Your discipline in so many areas of your life is inspiring. Get back safely and post a video.

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  16. In at 1438 --> stop 1451; target 1150

    Will be "put"ting SLV, SLW at some point soon after open --> no stop i.e. do or die

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  17. let the chasing begin for the weak hands that sold off last few days...

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  18. Best of luck Gary - safe lifting.

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  19. We need to recruit a horse race announcer for the blog

    "and the dollar stumbs and hits the ground/gold takes the lead/ silver got out of the gate early
    No wait the dollar is back up but limping

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  20. Yes, looking promising, but still need a clear and strong breakout of the highs, otherwise it's still wiggles within the range.

    A break up to $1,450, maybe by tomorrow, would set the scene for panic buying and strong 2nd half cycle, IMO.

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  21. Bob... I am with Haggerty regarding buying puts on the D wave. I would appreciate knowing your strategy.

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  22. mlmt,

    What? A week or so ago, you said you would be getting ON the bus. Now you've decided to short it instead?

    What changed?

    What analysis is telling you that odds are gold will go lower here?

    FWIW: Cycle analysis would say it's extremely unlikely that gold will go below the January low of 1311 (june futures) for the rest of this bull market. So 1150 target is either highly improbable or the gold bull is finished.

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  23. SB,

    SVM is looking good, eh?

    Although I will say that AG continues to outperform them all.

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  24. Fianlly dollar looks like it is starting to roll over.

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  25. Good luck, Gary. Enjoy Savannah!

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  26. Nice to see gold moving up alongside silver. Relatively equal gains so far this morning.

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  27. Pima
    I read a article about naddler from kitco
    Every end of year call he has made over the last 10 years has been 50% off.
    This year he called 1150 so we should see 2300

    They said this was true within $30

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  28. Mlmt
    I don,t want your trade to work but that does not mean it won,t
    In fact the volatility we have seen might put you on the right side of my gut feelings on the trade
    But what are you using to call it?

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  29. SB,

    Thanks for the finviz link! Great visual of all markets all on one screen. Excellent!

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  30. The HUI daily chart is a thing of beauty.

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  31. Thanks, Jeff.

    So you're saying that MLMT's trade could be based on naddler's call?

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  32. SB,

    Yeah! Right up against the breakout TL. Let's see if it can punch thru it and CLOSE above it this time.

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  33. Good luck, Gary. Light weight!

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  34. And SLV is just .28 from new highs. I don't even care if it happens today or next week!

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  35. You are an inspiration for my old, weak body!

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  36. We have everything we need, even mlmt stepping in on the short side of metals. :)

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  37. Did some "put"ting with SLW at 44.80 and SLV at 37.90

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  38. I'll begin to add margin at the 564-5 on the HUI, if it pulls back there today or tomorrow. Since I'm going to step away again today, I'll just enter conditional orders and free up my time.

    Good luck!

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  39. Please let's not get another troll going today! Ignore!

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  40. Pima
    That was naddlers number
    For being the head of kitco he is always so far off base

    I think he likes keeping people chaseing

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  41. Guys,

    I will have to be honest that calling Basil a troll is a little extreme, actually a lot extreme.

    Go to the Yahoo message boards, Zero Hedge and you'll immediately see trolls, pumpers, spammers, whatever you want to call them. It's ridiculous.

    Hey, if Basil is as bad as it gets on Gary's blog we're very lucky.

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  42. Hey Guys,

    F.W.I.W.

    I was in Logan Airport this wkend and thought I saw signs of a Gold top, (but I know we're not at a top)...

    It was a GIANT wall size sign that said..."Is there a better way to invest in Gold"...and it showed a huge Gold bar and the ticker IAU inscribed on it.

    I have never heard of IAU on this blog, but I looked at the chart...its a slow follower of gold. Not interested,just thought I'd mention that.

    Out for the morning, MLMT...Crazy man! I'm buying more exk yesterday, youre shorting SLW today. WOW!

    As usual, Time Will Tell :)

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  43. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  44. For anyone who followed me shorting PHM: I am hoping to hold this one for a kill. It will probably go broke if we get another bout of weakness in the economy. Will post if/when I cover.

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  45. I agree Basil is no troll
    I would miss his comments
    As for mlmt. Just a simple questio
    Any reason behind these trades?

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  46. Break the Record and Bring it Home Gary!

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  47. Haggerty and ChrisB, when Gary gives us the high sign, and I am taking a defined dollar trade on AGQ puts 60-90 days out at a 25% delta price.

    Then just sit and watch the power of compounding at work in your favor.

    I will scale in to this trade over a week.

    If Gary is right and AGQ pushes to $300-$400 a 20% correction in silver is a $120 to $140 dollar move. Just look at how much AGQ corrected during the intermediate correction, nearly $40.

    Once AGQ starts to fall, you will have decay and volatility as your friend.

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  48. DG, may I ask, what are your reasons for shorting PulteGroup?

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  49. AGQ partnership made loss in Jan 2011 and profit in Feb 2011. Roughly 25 dollar per share loss in Jan 2011 and 50 dollars per share profit in Feb 2011. Means if you hold both months then 25 dollars per share profit is added as gain (in addtion to your trading gain) on K-1 form. This is simple calculation. Actual calculation may be little more complex but may not far off in numbers.

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  50. MLMT, wouldn't you think the safer bet would be long with a stop at 1410 or 1382 and then perhaps short ... I dunno ... it just seems to me like you're consistently opposed to all on this site. It's not like we're losing money over here ... good luck to you.
    One of these days you'll come over to the light side ...

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  51. Eamonn: It has been on my watch list as a fundamentally broken company. To enter a short I need the item to "do something bearish" to give me a precise entry point. PHM got to an extreme on the upside where I felt it could not go any higher (there's a limit to how far a rubber band can stretch), so I did it. I was in the hole a few cents for a few hours. Most of my work revolves around entry points. I can't get more precise than that, sorry.

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  52. Yash: Can you post the URL where you find that data? I am not seeing it on their website. Thanks!

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  53. IAU is iShare's version of GLD and it has been much less successful being only one tenth the size. So they are doing some advertising to grow market share. I am not sure if IAU's fees are lower than GLD's.

    "Slow follower"??? It should follow gold 1:1 minus some very small fees.

    GLD advertises in the FT and on Bloomberg.

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  54. Anyone have an idea of what that jobs report might be like tomorrow?

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  55. If ones strategy consistently fails it would make sense to change something.

    Perhaps MLMT would do well do go over his journal and compare the winning percentage to the losing percentage with this topping picking strategy.

    If the losers are more numerous than the winners and the losses larger than the profits that should tell you the strategy has a negative expectancy.

    Anything with a negative expectancy should be abandoned.

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  56. SHZ seems to have caught a draft today. Wonder why?

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  57. Eamonn: I bought puts earlier in the day before DG announced his trade. Wish I had the forsight to jump on it the day before when DG did, however, I made my trade based on PHM moving back up over the 50 DMA and then breaking back down below the 50 DMA, also all momentum indicators turned negative with stochastics being in overbought territory

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  58. DG,
    I used to cover the homebuilding names in my last job including PHM, and I also worked for Hovnanian, which is one of the large builders out of NJ. Anyways, I haven't looked at or spread the company in over two years, but at they time, they definately were not a bankruptcy candidate (they still may be a good short, though). The combined company of PHM and the old Centex had ample liquidity and were able to push out all of their debt maturities until something like 2016. If SHTF, it's tough to tell what happens to all these guys, but back in 2008, banks were willing to work with the large builders to help them rollover their debt to late maturity dates. Also, the government effectively provided all the builders a backdoor bailout by allowing them to extend the use of their tax loss carry forwards for up to five years rather than 3. This basically let them apply their losses and apply it to their profitable years. In essense they didn't have to pay any taxes and received large refunds for prior years.
    Anyways, I can't debate whether they are a good short or not right now, but I don't think they would be a bankruptcy candidate. If you're looking for some of those check out Beazer, Hovnanian and Standard Pacific or others will low Price/Book ratios. Again, my disclaimer though is I haven't looked at these guys in years, so I would have to go back and look to see how their capital structures have changed over that time.
    Hope that helps. Good luck with the short.

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  59. http://www.proshares.com/funds/agq.html

    all monthly statements. you can find for all commodity etf by clicking that etf on their website. Then in monthly statement you get to see net gain or loss. you can find outstanding shares by dividing shareholder equity divided by nav. again note all rough calculations. in annual report they show accurate figures with net gain/loss per share figure too. last annual report on website is 2009 and net gain was 21 dollars per share for entire year of 2009. I don't know about entire year 2010. also there is rule of ownership. if you buy in middle of month then you own on prorate basis for remaining days of month but if you see mid month then you are deemed owner for full month. so even if you see 1st of month you will get entire month's gain/loss to you etc. I can see someone paying much larger tax if timing is bad. and reverse someone may benifit if timing is good. my experince reading these statements seems if we agq tops early month and we sell at top and then it contines down that month then partnership will show loss for month which may be good for our K-1. I am also learning so please do your due dilligance.

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  60. Good Luck Gary. Take the GOLD. Yes... Pun intended.

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  61. DG: Very interesting. I would'nt be at the level yet where I could research and find and make the decision that a company was broken. Maybe over the years I shall pick up the knowledge to know how to go about doing it.
    Good luck with it. It will be interesting to watch PulteGroup as time unfolds

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  62. Gary;

    Good luck in Savannah. Shoot this is the first year in 15 that I will no be in hilton Head..only about 40 minutes to Savannah from there. maybe we will pass each other at atlanta airport today.Hopefully you can get a chance to go to Tybee for a dip in the ocean...after you win of course.

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  63. MLMT managed to short SLV at a value not even seen on the tape. This guy is gooooood.

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  64. Thanks PST. Kind of you to post. I got some current financial analysis from Stansberry (a newsletter writer) who is much smarter than I am about financial reports and such. He felt their balance sheet has eroded very substantially the last two years an d that things are getting worse there. If I get a good entry point (as i appear to have done over 7.60) I am content to just hold it and see what happens. If they go to $2 and don;t go broke I'll still be quite happy! Thanks again for posting.

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  65. William: thank you for your info. Good luck with the short.

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  66. IAU has avg daily volume of over 5 million shares.

    GLD has avg volume of 14 million shares

    Share price on IAU is 1/10th of GLD

    Both track gold almost 1 to 1

    right now GLD is up 1 percent, IAU up 1.01 percent

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  67. Yash. Thanks! I was wanting to figure this out and had not yet gotten to it. I saved your post and will study it later. I hate getting some huge nasty surprise on tax day, but it seem that it will not be too bad. Your approach makes sense to me. I believe they also post the actually final data once a quarter, so by late April Q1 may be up (at least that's what they told me when i called them but the person I spoke to wasn't sure.)

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  68. Silver downturn yet again same time as yesterday's chart.
    This never ceases to amaze me and I wonder why it is that there is so much similarity in move directions on the charts.

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  69. silver somehow can't get past 37.8

    someone keeps selling at those levels..

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  70. My pleasure DG. Your comments have helped me out a ton, so I thought that I'd try to return the favor. Stansberry is a smart cat, so I'm can't dispute what he says, especially since I haven't looked at them in so long.
    One plus that you have going for you, is if housing prices keep deteriorating, these guys will have to mark down their inventory to market. This is why you'll see them discontinue selling in some communities so that they don't have to have price discovery for certain homes (similar to banks not writing down REO inventory). If this happens again like in 2007/2008, they will all likely have to take big hits to their book value, which will not be a positive for their stocks.
    Again, good luck.

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  71. Miners chart does not look good to me yet. I'd really like to see that downtrend line broken. Jury is still out in my mind.

    http://img831.imageshack.us/i/picture1bb.png/

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  72. DG - I haven't see quater end actual reports so that person may be wrong. But monthly statements give good rough idea. End of year annual report is just addtion of all monthly statements gain/loss. Hard part is to calculate your ownership days if you trade these etfs often. But may be using excel formula you can do it. I am not very big in this. I am bigger in miners than this. Only after I see this year tax impact I will decide for next C wave.

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  73. i never get how silver gets down 40-50 cents in a few seconds...

    it has to be coordinated dumping by a bunch of people

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  74. Anyone knows how to extend an existing subscription with the offer Gary posted?

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  75. It's a lot to do with algorithm trading too.
    When it goes up goes up $0.40 on the one minute chart, nobody seems to complain.

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  76. I get this feeling that those who wish to curb the rise of the PM prices just flaunt their untouchability by executing their bear raids with blatant obviousness. What normal seller for profit would time his watch to the exact same time?

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  77. Yash: You are right. She said the post the monthly once a quarter and two weeks ago nothing was there so I assumed that was right. Now I see Jan and Feb there. Thanks.

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  78. if we take a look at silver's 40-50cent moves in a few seconds, 8 out of 10 times it is to the downside

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  79. I am sorry for the typo... SLV at 36.90 and not 37.90. My apologies.

    Thanks to whoever pointed that out.

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  80. In my short time trading AGQ and silver, I noticed that all of my limit orders got hit at around 11:00-11:30 and 1:00-1:30. I think that the price gets hit at around 1:00-ish so that they can paint the tape and get a lower closing price at the Comex (1:30 close). Someone on this board, noted that the 11:00 raid is probably the same thing happening at the close of the European exchanges. It doesn't happen everyday, but it happens enough that I think that there may be something to this theory.
    Any thoughts?

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  81. Nike,

    Silver is a vey thin market. Any big institution selling a block of SLV would knock it down. If anything, the systematic selling at the same time of day would be typical of a big holder trying to unload its position in blocks.

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  82. I agree I have noticed the same thing. It is like clock work.

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  83. Real interesting action, silver now lagging both gold and PMs % by quite a bit.

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  84. DG/PST

    Have either of you signed up to a Stansberry newsleter? Can you validate the premium which looks around $1K per year?

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  85. I recommend checking this out for what I consider irrefutable evidence of systematic manipulation:

    http://bit.ly/bkFieB

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  86. Can anyone recommend other subscription newsletters?

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  87. Pressure,
    I haven't signed up because, while I think he's a sharp guy, his views are a little extreme. I prefer someone like Gary who takes a more objective approach rather than a "sky is falling" mindset.

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  88. Pressure,
    Stansberry was also fined by the SEC for securities fraud for telling people that he had insider info to get the price of one of his holdings up. He still can be a great analyst though, but I thought I decided to steer clear of this one.

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  89. I haven't touched homebuilders for more than 2 years. I think most of the meat is off the bone and that unfortunate tax refund scheme, which was a massive bailout and loaded up cash on their balance sheets. The game is rigged so I won't touch them. The only big one (well, not really) to fail back in 2007-8 was WCI. I missed that one but was fortunate with GGP in late 2008. I miss those days.... especially my favorite SoCal banks, Downey and Fed First.

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  90. Pressure: He has a lot of newsletters. The one I get is cheap: PS Investment Advisory (PSIA). I have gotten some good ideas from it. And yeah he's extreme and you have to wade through his rhetoric to find the gems, but he is a damn good analyst, IMO. I have already made enough in PHM the past two days to pay for a lifetime of subscriptions.

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  91. Interesting political/strategy perspective from King World News on why the US $ downward slope will accelerate in next 3 months.

    Not sure of FAROS' record but KWN usually feature legit folks.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/30_Faros_-_US_Dollar_Decline_to_Accelerate.html

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  92. $HUI looks great to me. We penetrated the upper trendline and making new highs, as I type. I think a close above is very probable.

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  93. Frank: Sounds like you shorted those. Do you short often? Not many shorters here.

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  94. Whitebear: How have we broken the trendline? See below.


    http://img831.imageshack.us/i/picture1bb.png/

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  95. Re: Stansberry you should read this: http://www.stansberrysecfraud.com/

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  96. DG,

    I have a different trendline. Look at Gary's blog post for Wed. Mar 23...

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  97. HUI is right up against the downsloping TL. Hasn't penetrated it yet.

    I'm drawing the TL off the 598 high made on 12/7 and the 3/7 high. This TL WAS penetrated on 3/24, but HUI pulled back during the day and closed well below the TL.

    Today is the second touch, let's see where it ends up.

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  98. Hi All,

    Long time listener, first time caller.

    SLV been leading GLD for a while, anyone considering GLD may outperform in the near future?

    Thanks, Rick

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  99. Hi Rick,

    Welcome.

    I don't know how you could determine that other than using price targets. And price targets are pretty much a WAG anyway.

    If we expect gold to hit 1600 and silver to hit 50, silver will continue to outperform. But what if silver only gets to 45? And gold hits 1700?

    Anyone have analysis that can support a call for a target price in gold and silver?

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  100. Eamon,

    Newsletters. I havde some ideas if you are interested. Email is mtloans@centurytel.net

    Alex

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  101. pimaCanyon

    Is this the trendline you are looking at? Hope to see it breakout soon.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p51711345174&a=229779543&listNum=1

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  102. whitebear,

    that's the TL that DG and I are using, same one that's on Gary's 3/23 blog post.

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  103. I used to short heavily in 2007-8. Home builders, banks, etc. That was my investment thesis in that time period. I switched to mainly going long PMs in October/ November 2008. I had some small exposure to PMs but not enough commitment and often found myself chasing. Bought GLD for my IRA in 2004-5 or whenever the ETF was launched.

    Oct-Nov 2008 was an opportunity of a lifetime. Bought Jan 2009 call options in stuff like SLW and let much of it exercise.

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  104. Alex: I sent ya a mail Thanks!!

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  105. I see the SPY had a selling on strength day yesterday.

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  106. yes, P.K., thanks for posting.

    (I am too damn lazy to post a chart :-)

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  107. Of course, people draw trendlines in different ways.

    But, here is my $HUI

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Stalkingwolf/folders/Jing/media/5f778974-6f1d-40eb-a59a-290d80edcaba

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  108. DG/PST thanks

    Im always sceptical about these types of things the variance in costs between reports is large.

    What im also intrigued about is as soon as individuals/companies get "blacklisted" it makes me think they are doing something that is worth looking at.

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  109. Rick,

    Gold outperforms in the beginning of the ABC cycle. Silver outperforms at the end. So silver should continue to outperform until the end of the D-wave, then underperform for the next year after that.

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  110. Sorry -- silver should outperform until the end of the C wave, not the D wave.

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  111. Guys, come on now...Despite Gary trashing "conspiracies" when the POS or POG gets slammed down massively within minutes, it's quite obvious that some large entity (s) are dumping contracts to force down price.

    Just look at the NY open this week...Price climbing nicely and then BAM! out of nowhere all a bunch of sellers dump massive amts of contracts for no reason?

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  112. Jay, I think someone on this board mentioned a few days ago that one possible reason for the POS and POG dump, especially coming towards end of the month is some funds that want to profit from the price rise of metals but don't necessarily want to have it on their books to show their clients/investors at the end of the month the size of their involvement.

    One theory anyway.

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  113. whitebear,

    the difference is that Gary, DG, P.K. and I are drawing the TL such that it touches the high of the day on 3/7. Your TL goes right thru the wick of the 3/7 candle. So yeah, your TL has a different slope.

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  114. Jayhawk: What makes you say the selling is "for no reason"? Obviously someone(s) are selling, but do we have any evidence that it's "in order to drive prices down?" That implies intent and I can't see how we can determine the seller's intent. We can say things like "Why else would they..." but this is just guesswork, no? I'd love to see real evidence someday but have never seen any in all the reading I have done and no one on the inside has ever ratted.

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  115. Perhaps Romeo...algos too makes some sense.

    I also find it fascinating that these margin hikes seem to come out of nowhere and just at the times when silver is making a strong move.


    FYI, that weekly swing high on gold is close to being invalidated if gold can get above 1448 this week. ( I think that was the number Gary pointed out.)

    Anyone know the dollar number we need to get under to make that weekly swing low on the USD become void?

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  116. So does that mean the sudden drop in the stock index this afternoon was manipulation?

    The big gap open must have been manipulation by the good guys I guess :)

    I guarantee that during the D-wave anyone who is short silver won''t be talking manipulation if silver goes down.

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  117. All of the banks i have worked for hedge their positions, all of teh producers (oil/gas) i have worked for hedge their positions, it does beg the question who is taking the outright positions. Hedge funds in Hong Kong, or small insider groups living in darkened bunkers in the hills of Vermont

    Believe me im not a conspiracy theorist, but im not naive either!

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  118. You're not supposed to use internets on a flight Gary!

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  119. http://apeakunderthehood.blogspot.com/2011/03/fed-speak-gotta-know-your-enemey.html#comments

    Fed Speak... Gotta Know The Enemy

    Enjoy the post

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  120. Thanks pC and David.

    pC, I just glance at the daily % gains for each. Sorry if that's a bit crude, but today is the first time in a while that GLD is a bit ahead. As for price targets, for me it will be watching for an exhaustion candle with massive volume at a point when everyone is gaga over PM's and the gold coin vending machines hit the kwikie-marts (or some such ludicrous mainstream warning).

    David, That is a reasonable rule, lets see if it plays out. I hope it does as I have been focused on SLV and not GLD, until today, starting to trade into and maybe establish a DGP position.

    Thanks again for the input.

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  121. I find it just amazing that gold and silver are sold off at exactly the same time almost 90% of the time.Just looks at the charts and you see the same thing everyday almost.For everybody scoring at home yesterdays high tick in April gold was $1430.30. Yes, that was a gain of EXACTLY 1.00%. How unusual- NOT. In fact out of the first 22 trading days in March a whopping TEN featured rallies that were stopped near 1%. There can be no clearer evidence of manipulation than the repeated, practically ritualistic daily capping of Comex paper gold. No free market can have an 83% probability of morning selloffs. All markets are manipulated look at QE1 and 2 ,why do you think the general markets are up-because the Fed keeps throwing money at them --that is a form of manipulation by the way.

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  122. Looks like it's lobster for lunch again today. Ugh.

    :-)

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  123. Rick,

    A breakout for gold is more important than what happens in silver right now. If gold breaks out, silver will follow. So be happy, not worried.

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  124. My thesis is this for the sudden spikes down....

    "They" accumulate "physical" contracts and the price drifts up.

    They then put buy limit orders in for derivative products tied to the physical price (mining shares - SLW, CDE, AG, etc., ETF's - SLV, AGQ, options, options on futures) at a lower level that will get tagged by the declines. My guess is they also watch the Level 2 quotes to know where the stops and triggers are.

    They then put in the large sell orders to drive the physical price down, which will activate the buy orders of the derivative products.

    Net-net they likely broke even, lost a tad or maybe even gained a tad on the "pump and dump" or "dump and pump" action.

    When they buy up those contracts back (dump and pump action), it drives up the value of the derivatives.

    Wash, rinse, repeat.

    Now...What if this is all done through HFT algos.

    They can program the logic based on times of day or open interest triggers to pull the trigger (also with a strength of size determination) for maximum gains.

    Because it is premeditated and they can trade faster, it is ready for the action and can arbitrage in microseconds.

    Just one humble man's "plausible" theory from 2 years of "watching."

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  125. after all the troll talk yesterday...

    I am no troll...someone asked me this yesterday


    all you chartists,

    do the exhaustion candles on SLW and most other miners bother you guys?

    i am kindaa bugged by it

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  126. Jay,

    All of the tradable commodities get hit with margin hikes, frequently, as volatility and price increase. This is normal market response, especially in thinly traded markets.

    Most of the time when Silver margins are increased, if Zero-Hedge bothered to look and report, they would find many other commodities being hiked too!
    But nobody screams manipulation when Cocoa, Corn and Soybeans get hiked! Or when these get dumped like a bag of s#$^

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  127. goldsilvertroll,

    Well, I would rather see the miners close near the high of the day. Day's not over, so we'll have to wait and see where they end up.

    Meantime, pick a miner, I'm looking at SVM. Look at the rally from the January low to the early March high. There are several "exhaustion candles" during that run. Which, of course, did not turn out to be exhaustion candles at all, right?

    That said, I will feel better seeing gold, silver, and miners all break to new highs. Right now we are essentially in no man's land, still in the trading range of the last 6 trading days.

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  128. Yash,

    The numbers you are quoting for AGQ are quite close to the actual returns on owning the stock.

    For example, if you owned AGQ for all of 2009, you would have made $24.65.

    If you owned it for all of Jan, you would have lost about $25, made $50 in Feb, etc.

    That can't be by chance, IMHO.

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  129. But if you look at the daily chart of gold futures, we have a big green candle with price near the high of the day. That doesn't looks so bad.

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  130. Yep. I don't like the candles, but they are not a definitive bearish tell. We have already dropped enough to honor them,, but I wish we'd tick over the day;'s high of the reversal day already!

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  131. Wes - you are right. I am just not sure how K-1 looks. I am preety sure this monthly statement gain/loss comes into K-1 but I don't know what happens of actual trading profit. I have never seen K-1 as I owned agq first time in 2011. I agree that over full period of time like full month or full year this gain/loss stuff may not impact much but if buy/sell timing is wrong then its possible you may get gain in k-1 but actual trading loss and vice versa.
    Thats why I feel these are not frequent trading vechicals. But I may be wrong.

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  132. Thanks BOB

    Wes

    When you jumped in to AGQ calls you didn't give what they were asking on the bid right you went a lot cheaper and they took it after a while right?

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  133. Wes,

    YOu outline a good point.

    Isn't the K-1 form for AGQ in place of the 1099?

    Meaning, you don't have to report your sale price and capital gain based on cost basis, you just report the K-1 gain or loss.

    This would align with your outline that the share price gain is equal to the K-1 amount.

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  134. Maybe this is way too simplistic, but wouldn't it be possible for a very big player to buy in at a price, wait for some good profits, sell big enough to run stops, buy same amount back in lower and do it all over again? If you can do this ad infinitum you could make a bazillion dollars buying and selling the same silver in the same trading range.

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  135. Can we just f--in take $38 out already.

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  136. Hot Rod, what if you didn't sell?

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  137. Poly,

    Who is selling? (not here)

    I just want 38 taken out already.

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  138. anybody still holding there april calls?

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  139. @Hot Rod,

    That was in regards to the K-1 comment.

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  140. There are a lot of retail investors buying dollars I think. I know of four people at my work that have invested significant amounts in $USD (I am Canadian) and I just started working there. They think USD/CAD at .98 was a good trade.. well they probably just went to a currency exchange and lost even more on the fees. But I think there are a lot of people that think they can pick up some USD for cheap and when the market overpowers them and they realize they have made a mistake there could be a wave of selling. And another wave as some hold out until there is too much pain.

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  141. That 38 is putting up so much resistance! I think if gold goes over 1440$ then 38$ will fall.

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  142. Poly,

    Sorry about that. :)

    It is a good question. My guess based on the info I read is that you will get K-1 forms even if you don't sell. Because it is a limited partnership, as an owner you are responsible for your share of gains or losses.

    Now, with that I'm not sure how long you have to file and pay taxes, or credit.

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  143. I am also hearing of Canadian friends picking up USD, and last time I mentioned gold/silver at a friends dinner party all any one wanted to talk about was real estate... FWIW.

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  144. Back in the day Cramer called JDSU, Just Don't Sell Us.

    My favourite stock is AG = All Good.

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  145. Wes, thanks for checking on the 1995 government shut-down. Good to know it didn't really phase gold. We have so much money sloshing around right now anyway...

    TZ - hillarious about the lobster!

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  146. What's going on with SLW? Should be up with the rest but is pretty much flat. Maybe just taking a rest from a decent day yesterday?

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  147. Ryan,
    I was wondering the same thing. It looks like it is filling this morning's gap, also I have noticed that most times it finishes strong.

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  148. The problem with SLW is my $45 April calls... do you want me to sell them?

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  149. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  150. Timing is really nice for a launch into new high's tomorrow. Gold will need to lead the way this time, IMO. The cycles line up well and the price action has been creeping up in stealth like fashion.

    Obviously not an exact science, but I see a nice short term consolidation and move towards the highs on the Silver chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=11&id=p76762325481&a=229794427

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  151. Just an FYI to those who have April dated options that are out of the money.

    The curve of theta loss (meaning the loss of option value due to time value) really picks up into next week as we will be just two weeks from Options Expiration.

    At this point they should probably be treated as throw away money/lottery play or you could always roll them to May or (even June) and pay a bit more for the same strike or possibly roll them to a higher strike for no cash outlay or possibly even a credit.

    Just a heads up for option newbies.

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  152. Forget my last chart, my scribbles do not appear to be making it over!

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  153. Whitebear, DG, etc.

    I am a total notice when it comes to charting but it seems to me that Whitebears approach to trendlines is more logical. The HUI peak on 12/7 defines the first point. The second point is defined by the intra-day high on 3/2. The intraday high on 3/4 validates this trendline. 3/7 was an attempt at a break-out which failed. 3/23 validates the same trendline. 3/24 and 3/25 are failed breakouts. Finally, today's high is a break-out IF it holds into the close.

    As a novice, I ask: should trendlines be re-drawn if there is a third high that is higher than the second high which initially formed the trendline (3/7 in our case)? OR does the original trendline remain firm and subsequent points should be judged as failed or successful based on that original trendline? Thanks.

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  154. From what I've have been reading and from my intelligence gathering, stocks & PM will post new bull market highs in the next 2 months, but then a major correction.
    Does anyone agree or disagree?

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  155. $HUI right at the trendline

    "imminent breakout"

    soon.

    http://img832.imageshack.us/img832/1808/huiz.jpg

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  156. Sorry, that should read "novice" not "notice"...

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  157. Haggerty
    We got the close above the 1338. So I am holding my may 1440 calls. As per my highly techy broker
    For whatever that's worth

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  158. I wasn't smart getting them
    Don't think I'll be smart getting out of them

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  159. LowTax: Unfortunately this is not an exact science. I am less comfortable with two failed breakout attempts which WB's interpretation requires. I really won;t even like one and usually try to draw the line so that it is not even violated intraday. Plus we are struggling here and had the trendline been breached I'd have expected a woosh up. As a separate point i won;t be really comfortable until the reversal high at about 582 is taken out as well. At least this is how it looks to me.

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  160. Eamonn
    Yes that is the plan
    Where have you been reading?
    This is the spot to follow the pm sector

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  161. David,
    Did I say I was worried? :) No worries here, just always trying to maximize my trades and refine my edge(s).
    Rick

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  162. Eamonn
    I'm on the iPhone it's hard to type
    When the dollar hits it's low it will rally up hard and fast

    Crushing pm and stocks for a time
    Then after that we buy again

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  163. jeff: I've been reading lots and lots of sources, trying to get thought/opinions from smart people such as S&P's subscription service, etc

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  164. Hot Rod,

    Not too far fetched. Similar thing happened to me back in the day when I was prop trading sirius satellite. The day Howard Stern came on board the stock price was going up as expected. Then within 30 secs the floor of several level 2s fell out and the stock dipped $0.30 to only bounce back up $0.45 within the minute. Mind you I alone was playing with about 100K shares alone and in the room I was trading with would of had more than 1 millions shares in play but someone had deeper pockets to drive it down for probably a buddy of his and knock us all out.

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  165. Eamonn: My experience has been that reading a lot is educational for seeing how people look at things, but the vast majority of writers have nothing of use to say. It takes a long time to get a sense for who really knows something and who thinks he does but doesn't. Always ask/wonder/research what the writer's track record is. People can write things that are very persuasive and be totally out to lunch. This is not an easy game and really takes time. Or find someone good (like Gary) and do what he says---but never stop learning.

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  166. Agree with DG, not a day to be adding IMO.

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  167. Romeo (if you were talking to me), my front month calls are ITM (for me), I'm just going to hold them or get stopped out.

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  168. Blogger blammo said...

    Agree with DG, not a day to be adding IMO.

    That kind of thinking will never get us above $1440/$38!

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  169. I don't like the sell-off in SLW...

    hopefully it's not a sign of things to come?

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  170. Did MLMT ever tell us why he shorted SLW @ $44.80? Decent call given the fact it is a miner in the red today.

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  171. your miners are going to do alright only if the main stock market is moving in the upward direction. i'm out of miner because you factor the market's sentiments, gold sentiment, company risk, company valuation, energy costs..

    the less risky trade is an unlevered play on the physical metal itself. you get enough leverage with silver over gold. but for the risky speculator day trader go into a levered derivative like AGQ, HZU, UGL

    gold is moving along nicely, i hope it doesn't get attacked tomorrow for NFP but so far so good. saw some of the guys take some profits this afternoon.

    market is pretty neutral today.. like it like this.

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  172. MLMT usually doesn't give reasons. He has made some very good calls and some way off the mark ones. Once in a while he'll give a reason (they usually don't look like especially good reasons to me---but hey, he does have some nice calls from time to time--too good to be just luck, IMO)

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  173. Sold AG, EXK, and CDE

    Not happy with volumes right now, daily charts and intra day.

    will buy back when I am more sure of buying direction

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  174. AUD/JPY just won't quit! Up over 11 cents since earthquake.

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  175. Alex: Thanks for posting. I was wondering about that. I just sold my EXK as well. Volume is drying up as it drifts higher and approaches the previous peak.

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  176. Robert - the markets are rigged yeah, you're playing a dirty game.

    But it's never been a free market to begin with.

    it's the ones in the know who take from the common folk..

    gold is no different from any other market.

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  177. We're unlikely to see any big moves before the jobs number tomorrow... If it's anything like ADP's number, things will look weak and probably signal that more fiat is on the way...

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  178. Alex,

    Thank you for posting your trades

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  179. DG

    Thats what I was looking at.

    With CDE its the 3rd time at this high point, lacks volume and the MACD is low to sideways. I just will hold my Good gains and if it blasts off...Back in...if it falls, I will look to re enter.

    Heck, CDE could drop tomorrow and the whole thing rockets Monday, because they do look to be forming flags on a 3 month chart.

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  180. Gold closing right below 1438 is comical!
    Predicting that and it coming true is sad.

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  181. I am not really recommending following me.

    AG has been my BEST gainer, its a double since the Jan low. I just have a lot of shares and when it went from $19 to $14 early in March, I had wished I saved that cash :)

    Today ,intraday ( a 1 day chart, 5 minute), it hit around $21.30 this morning on great volume, pulled back and retested on 1/5th the volume and the MACD was dead and turning down, so I bailed. There are gaps below...I hope to re-enter.

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