re miners vs. AGQ: Thanks SB and all. I am much more short-term than you, SB, and am just looking at the next 1-2m months of C-wave completion. Their margins may hold, but if people see oil zooming the buyers for the juniors may back off at least some. I may keep some as a toy but expect to switch. Today's slight out-performance is probably that they got crushed yesterday. Interesting.
Wow, what a mountain. You can see the trails in the green meadows below the rock and ice.
Gary, will the meadows be melted out in June?
I've done a lot of hiking and some climbing in the North Cascades in Washington State. The alpine meadows there don't melt out till early to mid-July most years, late July some years. The climate there is different than that of the Alps. Alps is continental, North Cascades is maritime with the Hawaiian high pressure system dominating the summer weather starting.
June might even be more lovely than the picture would suggest, probably snow patches here and there as the meadows are melting out, flowers coming up thru the snow (glacier and avalanche lilies do that in Washington State)
Tony Blair, John Prescott and I regularly ski Zermatt. It is a fantastic spot. There is glacier to ski in early June and some down hill mountain biking which big John particularly likes!
something to note for juniors and mining in general first half.
though they are leveraged to the cost of the metal, they are of more risk.
after q1, the jrs are dumped like a hot potato because news releases and financing has been done for the year in Q4. no catalysts to spark them.
remember a lot mining corps are offer little to no incentives for big institutions to hold long term, it's the big paying dividend players that still get the biggest cash inflow when people think equities are "in".
i prefer the metal less complicated. when it becomes seasonal for gold and ala a, c waves add leverage if you want to trade.
i consider jr's a lottery ticket. they obviously have more growth potential reason why the big guys will eat them like pacman. but how would you know which one to pick unless you're in the know ;)
control risk, not too greedy, i think we'll all come out ahead.
My point was that all miners exploded on the day FRG was taken over. For the record, I don't think it'll matter much which vehicle we're in, and in fact I owned/traded DGP (2x gold, similar to AGQ) primarily for the first half of 2010 and it also worked as expected. My focus more on miners this round is that as the bull matures, miners can still make great gains while metals go sideways (at elevated levels).
For example, if silver hits $45 and stays around there for awhile, miners will still be growing earnings.
Either way, long pm's is the place to be adn the rest is just splitting hairs. :)
Gary: I have been to Zermatt. It is staggeringly beautiful--you're going to have a wonderful time. I was there right after high school, so a "few" years ago. I highly recommend staying at the Salzgaberhaus...if you like sleeping in a big room on the floor on straw mats with ten other people. Hey I was 17!
We didnt exactly rocket out of the June low either, and that was the IT low. Patience is key, if one is to ride this thing, yet the USD is def acting up here...
Japan isn't going away over night. But it will eventually and it shouldn't be long before the dollar gets back to moving down into the three year cycle low and gold gets busy finishing it's C-wave advance.
For the next week though traders will probably be better off just turning off their computers and doing something else.
All the markets clearly oversold. We get any indication that those reactors are going to make it through without significant issues, then ALL risk trades will rally for a few days like there is no tomorrow.
BUT, watching that plunge today in realtime when that annoucnement came through gave me an idea that if there was a real meltdown on one of those reactors, we had the potential for a big 5% (equities) down day, maybe much more, towards 10%, IMO. I couldn't imagine the drop in Silver if we did 5% the other day.
Just thinking of possible contingencies, not expectations.
Buy signal parameters have widened nicely. We can probably handle down 100 or so and still get it. C'mon---let's get a little lift into the close. Then maybe good news overnight and, Bang! We'll see.
What other primary activities do you have planned for the Switzerland trip besides the Matterhorn climb? I doubt you plan on visiting anywhere outside Switzerland on the 10-day trip, correct? I may diverge and go to Paris for a few days and would like to arrange that properly, BUT if the 10-days is jam packed with nice activities I'd have no problem staying in Chocolate Money land.
I'd like to take the glacier express to St. Moritz one day and even though I've already seen Chamonix we might rent a car and drive over one afternoon. I will probably be two days on the Matterhorn at some point so those will be free.
Gary, it looks like we are going to have a very long daily cycle here in gold, unless either we go lower than 1380's or higher by a lot 1430's. Could this be a problem to get the final C wave in the allotted amount of time (i.e. top in the first week of may?) thanks
PC: You may have misunderstood me. I meant we can handle Dow down 100, not down an additional 100, so we need to rally from here which we may or may not do.
I will not buy SIL back regardless, but will add to AGQ. SIL (and GDX and GDXJ, for that matter) has been a dog. That may or may not change but I see no reason to stick with SIL. AGQ is plenty volatile for me!
The end of April early May is just an estimate. This all depends on the dollar. when and if it decides to cave (and I think it will) things can get out of control rapidly. Besides gold is only 4 days past a "normal" cycle duration. It's not like we've lost a month.
I'll probably hire a guide although one of my climbing partners from here in Vegas is probably going also. He's already done the Matterhorn though and probably doesn't want to do it again.
It sure doesn't look to me like the dollar is putting in a bottom. I find it incredible that with a potential nuclear disaster the dollar is lower than where it was last Wednesday. Not much of a bottom! It should be skyrocketing instead. News is irrelevant. What is relevant is how an item reacts to the news and it is hard to believe a more bullish scenario for the dollar could develop. Given that it seem destined to tank, IMO.
PC: Nope. Signal is generated at 4:00 ET. Anything can happen between now and then. I have been talking about likelihoods. If at the close things line up just right it is triggered. If not, not, though I can usually tell by 3:30 if it is possible or not.
No hindsight needed. It's a fact that in recent history, miners will bet pummeled during overall market sell offs. Miners act worse than the overall market actually.
Trading wiggles are tough thing to do. Personally I dont do wiggles simply because I hate paying commissions, and to top it off, I cant win all the time. I also dont trade stocks, as a matter of fact I only own 1 stock and its an explorer (my lottery).
Patience my friends. Most of you have 10,000+ days ahead in your lives. Within less than 30 or so things shall be swell. Big picture is key. Divergence of attention from noise makers also key. Stay busy my friends (and thirsty ;).
Jay- I traded the daily cycle low last go around and I have to say I might be more comfortable doing that. I missed out on about 1500 bucks when all was said and done but I wasn't sitting through this either. This is a good lesson for me. My plan this time was to ride it through and since my entry was good enough this time sitting hasn't been an issue but if we continue to get new nuke news everyday about leakage and Tokyo is now empty the panic yesterday will seem mild.
this dollar flush with this socio-econo environment is cause for some bouncy trading, remember Nov 8 to Jan 3rd. That was a nut job of a roller coaster. triple topping.
Gold is one of the bull markets left though.
But crap it helped when the equities were along for the ride too. Too bad they are hurting.
Here's the thing in hindsight one could say it's better to trade daily cycles but only because this particular cycle happened to include an earthquake. Absent the earthquake the daily cycle low might have amounted to two or three very mild down days that one wouldn't be able to time the bottom of anyway.
In real time it's almost almost a huge mistake to try and time the daily cycles in a final C-wave rally.
OMG, I'm so glad I have a dissertation to write as a distraction. Every time I check in, I just miss one of the dips. I never thought I'd say writing this sucker would be a sane thing to do, but relatively to watching the market . . .
MrMiyagi ... glad you took care of your Mom. No she can't afford to lose her life savings. I can't get my Mom out of CDs, she says the market is gambling. Right now, it sure feels that way.
The Japanese are ready to connect a new powerline the Nuke plant. Iffthey reenergize the coolant pumps, katy bar the door on the rip we will get overnight.
Jayhawk, send me a comment on my blog, I will share with you my hedging that is definitely smoothing out this daily cycle for me.
yes, I lost big in 2008, I never did regain all of mine, but last year, happened to run into someone who was an options trader and she said just put it in gold and I will do fine. By fall of 2010, I was hooked on gold. So had been looking for someone to guide me through the cycles (didn't know that prior) ups and downs. I found SMT early Feb and added silver and on the ride now with the bull. I will say it is volatile and I am used to getting in and out more, so staying in is taking some years off my life with this ride.
There won't be a daily cycle lower and then higher again. Intermediate cycles don't work that way.
If a daily cycle breaks below a prior cycle low it almost always means an intermediate decline has begun. Once gold puts in the daily cycle bottom it shouldn't get broken and the next leg up in the C-wave will be on.
That's why I say it's kind of meaningless to pick a level and place a stop. It's often just a guaranteed loss because the only level that has any meaning in volatile markets like the PM are daily cycle pivots.
They are the only levels that will act as a true stop and if broken have true meaning.
Jay: YOu need to compare SLV to AGQ, not silver. SLV and AGQ are in sync.
Looks like to buy signal as we have not gotten a rally. If we rally 50 points in the next 15 minutes I will post, otherwise no buy. Sigh. Tomorrow starts a fresh clock so no anticipation possible.
PC. No levels are involved. Just sit tight. I promise to post (but we are not getting that rally, so no go anyway) It's based on the dovetailing of several items so there is no way to figure it out, but I can often tell that if we rally some of the items will wind up where they need to. The Dow level (except up or down) is irrelevant.
No chance for a signal today as the late day fade killed it. That of course does not mean we won't rally from here, just that the signal makes it a great bet. I bought a tiny bit of DFJ at 38.0---perhaps because I am nuts, but if the world doesn't end over there this thing is CHEAP
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The chief of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission says all the water is gone from one of the spent fuel pools at Japan's most troubled nuclear plant. This means there's nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down.
The outer shell of the rods could also ignite with enough force to propel the radioactive fuel inside over a wide area.
Gregory Jaczko did not say Wednesday how the information was obtained, but the NRC and U.S. Department of Energy both have experts on site at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex of six reactors.
He says officials believe radiation levels are extremely high, and that could affect workers' ability to stop temperatures from escalating.
Should have bought some shares of VXX last Friday. This natural/nuclear disaster is causing it to explode higher (no pun intended), just like the oil drilling disaster last year.
Geez, that is awful, jayhawk. Man, I feel so sorry for all people in Japan right now. We're over here worrying about our PM trades watching numbers on a screen, and they are dealing with a life threatening situation, one that could affect millions. Let's hope and pray they can figure something out that will prevent a meltdown and/or explosion.
John thats a misconception, and the media keeps repeating this false pretense. Gold usually does not react positively in world events, it is NOT a safe haven, or it doesnt react that way immediately for sure.
I think anyone with a little commonsense can see that gold is a commodity that is sensitive to excess money creation.
I guarantee no one is thinking I'm going to buy gold because I feel safer owning gold when world events are in turmoil.
I know that thought never crosses my mind when I buy gold or silver and I'm pretty sure no one else is thinking that either.
We all buy for the same reason. We expect prices to eventually go up. If the fundamentals support higher prices then eventually they will go up. And they will continue to go up until either the fundamentals change or a price level is reached where sentiment has reached a bullish extreme to such a degree that we run out of buyers.
Once that happens gold undergoes a violent regression to the mean profit taking event.
One needs to ask themselves have the events in Japan changed the fundamentals driving the gold bull? I would say if anything they have made it stronger.
Have we seen a parabolic event take gold to the kind of stretched levels where sentiment becomes extreme and it is in jeopardy of a sharp regression to the mean correction.
Nope, sentiment is dead neutral.
So I have to assume that once this passes the fundamentals will take over again and drive gold into that final C-wave top.
My understanding is that a meltdown is not as ominous as it sounds from a health risk perspective and that a meltdown does not implicitly mean that there will be an explosion. That said, if there is an ignition and expulsion of radioactive material into the atmosphere then all bets are off.
I can now comment on your lovely trip that is coming up since the market is now close. Have a great time. I have been to that part of the world a couple of times skiing. Best holiday ever. Breath taking!!
I know a lot are saying if you're not leveraged then there's no worry of a margin call. But I'm wondering if it'll be safe to hold AGQ/HZU if we continue to keep going lower. Anybody holding these concerned about decay factor?
Ryan, You would only have to worry if you think gold's intermediate cycle has topped after only 6 weeks.
I don't see any sign of that at the moment. On the contrary I'm astounded at the incredible strength silver has shown all during this correction.
Does anyone else realize silver is only a little over $2.00 off all time highs and holding far above the 50 DMA despite everything that's happening in the world.
This thing is set up to explode once the selling pressure is released.
I guess I'm somewhat confused. The dollar is at 80.69 but yet they say as the dollar rises, gold will drop by 3%. So then why is gold/silver and the dollar all dropping together now? We were to pull out at 78.82 and the low was 79.25. Has pulling the trigger changed? (I'm twitching right now in the red)
ryan said: "What are your plans? Are you planning on just holding through the pain (potentially more) even if they're underwater?"
Riding the bull to the top of the C wave until Gary says get out. ... and mine are already way underwater as I only started buying back a few weeks ago on dips.
I don't think gold's intermediate cycle has topped but I'm just concerned that what's happening over in Japan has changed things up a bit (my heart goes out to everybody's family there).
I'm worried that there may be more selling pressure before we can resume the c-wave. I know another bad day and I'll be in the red. It'll be really hard for me psychologically for me since I would have gone from flying head to deep in the red. It'll definitely be hard for me to hold on or even add with the rest of my dry powder once I'm in the red. I did manage to add yesterday which turned out to be early.
Folks prepare yourselves for gold to make a lower low in the next few days. I'm not saying it will happen for sure, but it will ease the parameters for a swing and make putting in a cycle bottom easier.
If you are getting too emotional at this point then you need to either reduce position size or turn off your computer for the next week and do something else.
Gary, when I say spammer what they do is lock my account and ask me for a phone number (which is not something I desire to provide to post on an internet blog).
It forces creation of a new account each time.
There is nothing you can do. It's a google thing. It happens based on how many and what kind of links you put in a post. kingworldnews dotter com is what knocked me out last time.
Gary, as before I disagree and say gold won't violate the low yesterday.
That was a solid low from my view (and based on a system I have) (unless japan causes everything to meltdown - which is a black swan that not much can be done about).
We'll see.
The dollar dropping hard right now is gonna help my case greatly when gold opens in 30 min.
No news yet on why the dollar is collapsing against yen. Perhaps they have cracked and finally indicated the selling of our treasuries to pay the bills.
TZ, What you are saying is that you believe yesterday was a cycle low. If it was then yes you are right it won't get violated. I'm just not sure it was yet. I need to see something that suggests it was the low like a swing or at least some pretty strong upside action.
If the dollar cycle fails that would go a long way towards confirming golds cycle low especially if gold rallies hard.
Thanks, Blammo. So the dollar is not crashing (because it is now flat against a basket). The Yen is surging. GLD in the after-market is barely reacting.
Gold/Silver are priced in dollars, but it's still subject to demand like any other asset. Whatever gains related to the currency depreciated are obviously being more than compensated by the selling of the asset.
Of interest when I talked to my bullion broker today, he said a lot of margin calls are coming in where people have to sell their gold. He said Gold is the quickest most liquidable asset to cover the margin calls. He said you must vbe doing good if you are buying while others are selling.
Man, you guys are in an alternate universe. The dollar against a basket of currencies is down .07%. That';s why gold is not moving against it---nothing is happening! Please show me where you see the dollar "plunging" except against the yen?
Ryan, Based on the anxiety in your posts, you may be trading too large, above your emotional skill level, so to speak. That's another way of saying that you entered positions without fully understanding and accepting your risk. Been there, done that, and I guarantee you that every trader on this board has done the same thing at one time or another. The bull may bail you out on this trade, he may not. Either way, the only thing in this game you can control is your risk. If you’re not doing that you will eventually lose money. Part of managing risk is knowing how you will react to losses and sizing your positions accordingly. Gary isn’t going to control your risk – he will tell you how he controls his own risk. His stops are at the IT lows for gold. If you don’t have his entry, you may not want to rely on his risk management plan. Sorry if this is off the mark, but I went through a similar experience not long ago and I know it’s no fun. Best of luck to you.
The Day The Yen Carry Trade Died Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2011 17:59 -0400
While everyone is staring in disbelief at the USDJPY, the real carry action is in the high yielding-YEN pairs, i.e., the development, high growing countries. And it's a massacre: ZARJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY - all are plunging far more than the USD. This is nothing short of a complete carry trade unwind. The implications: the cheapest recurring source of funding for risk assets - the Yen carry trade, is over. Those who managed to sell early on are lucky. The rest will get such an onslaught of margin calls tomorrow they may need to access the discount window (if Primary Dealers and the luckier banks). Many will be forced to sell assets to satisfy collateral requirements as ongoing sales of carry pairs push the Yen ever higher, and force ever more liquidity out of the market. And if the Yen carry trade is done, the question is when will the USD, which has also been a carry currency for some time, follow suit. And, once again, the most troubling observation is that the BOJ has not intervened. Our sinking feeling is that after pumping 50 trillion or so in money markets, the petty cash may be running quite low. In any case, ES opens in 2 minutes. Grab the popcorn now.
Thanks for the replies guys. I think Josh is right, I started off small and then got greedy and kept on adding on the way up. Now the daily swings have become pretty large and I have to admit it's hard for me to control my emotions. I really don't want to drop any of my positions either since I've held on for so long already. I will try to tough it out a little longer.
Kitco link here usually breaks into the two components on why gold/silver moves up or down:
1) US $ impact
2) Supply/Demand
If data in the link below is correct, there is more selling going on- hence the drop in G/S prices despite US $ drop.
But I will be damned- never expected the US $ to drop so fast (as Gary has been saying)- this break of support is expected to trigger a technical related waterfall....
Still curious to see how the Japan nuclear situation factors in all this short term....
Thanks, I use that site as well to watch along with the kitco app which is probably a bad thing since I see every ticker as it happens. I should just uninstall it lol.
Ryan, Just don't sell out of fear. Keep your head. Gold and Silver is cyclical, we are just on the downside of the cycle. It will come back up as it is in a bull market that I believe is to run another 5 years.
If you're up, don't try to ride it out, you should consider selling back a little for comfort, you will feel MUCH better. If you're that invested, you will make plenty with a reduced holding anyway.
re miners vs. AGQ:
ReplyDeleteThanks SB and all. I am much more short-term than you, SB, and am just looking at the next 1-2m months of C-wave completion. Their margins may hold, but if people see oil zooming the buyers for the juniors may back off at least some. I may keep some as a toy but expect to switch. Today's slight out-performance is probably that they got crushed yesterday. Interesting.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIs that a chart of Silver?
We're 3/4 of the way up that suckers already.
WTF just happen?
ReplyDeletewhat's the news??
ReplyDeletethe market just took a dive..
Hmmmm...what just happened???
ReplyDeleteSomething very big i would think, reactor go?
ReplyDeleteZH says the EU has warned of catastrophic events in Japan in the next few hours.
ReplyDeletethis is looking like 2008 all over again...
ReplyDeleteS&P500 support is at 1270, then 1230 - retracements on the weekly fractal chart.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/42108345
ReplyDeleteThe volatility is insane.
Crap, market doesn't know where to trade.
ReplyDeleteThat plunge was massive. We lose one of those reactors, watch out.
Treasury purchase auction cancelled?
ReplyDeletethe sky is falling
ReplyDeletethe sky is falling
best to stay out of everything until this settles
E.U. energy chief says the situation at the Japanese nuclear plant is out of control
ReplyDeleteGot my wife out Monday morning. Thanks Gary ...again
ReplyDeleteWow, what a mountain. You can see the trails in the green meadows below the rock and ice.
ReplyDeleteGary, will the meadows be melted out in June?
I've done a lot of hiking and some climbing in the North Cascades in Washington State. The alpine meadows there don't melt out till early to mid-July most years, late July some years. The climate there is different than that of the Alps. Alps is continental, North Cascades is maritime with the Hawaiian high pressure system dominating the summer weather starting.
June might even be more lovely than the picture would suggest, probably snow patches here and there as the meadows are melting out, flowers coming up thru the snow (glacier and avalanche lilies do that in Washington State)
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWhat route will you take to the summit?
I'm going to take one of the less traveled routes. I've heard the normal route gets clogged with traffic and you spend most of your time waiting.
ReplyDeleteTony Blair, John Prescott and I regularly ski Zermatt. It is a fantastic spot. There is glacier to ski in early June and some down hill mountain biking which big John particularly likes!
ReplyDeleteHas anyone else had the thought that SLV and AGQ don't seem to be tracking spot silver very well today?
ReplyDeletesomething to note for juniors and mining in general first half.
ReplyDeletethough they are leveraged to the cost of the metal, they are of more risk.
after q1, the jrs are dumped like a hot potato because news releases and financing has been done for the year in Q4. no catalysts to spark them.
remember a lot mining corps are offer little to no incentives for big institutions to hold long term, it's the big paying dividend players that still get the biggest cash inflow when people think equities are "in".
i prefer the metal less complicated. when it becomes seasonal for gold and ala a, c waves add leverage if you want to trade.
just my take on this
How about buyouts like we saw in FRG a month ago, is that not a catalyst?
ReplyDeleteI sold my SIL into the rally. I will replace it with AGQ when I judge the time to be right.
ReplyDeletei consider jr's a lottery ticket. they obviously have more growth potential reason why the big guys will eat them like pacman. but how would you know which one to pick unless you're in the know ;)
ReplyDeletecontrol risk, not too greedy, i think we'll all come out ahead.
A nice disconnect,between the market and pm's
ReplyDeleteSo much for the buy signal unless we can get a nice rally later (and still close down.)
ReplyDeleteEdwin,
ReplyDeleteMy point was that all miners exploded on the day FRG was taken over. For the record, I don't think it'll matter much which vehicle we're in, and in fact I owned/traded DGP (2x gold, similar to AGQ) primarily for the first half of 2010 and it also worked as expected. My focus more on miners this round is that as the bull matures, miners can still make great gains while metals go sideways (at elevated levels).
For example, if silver hits $45 and stays around there for awhile, miners will still be growing earnings.
Either way, long pm's is the place to be adn the rest is just splitting hairs. :)
All this back and forth is making me sea sick. I guess today's a day trader's heaven right now.
ReplyDeleteGary: I have been to Zermatt. It is staggeringly beautiful--you're going to have a wonderful time. I was there right after high school, so a "few" years ago. I highly recommend staying at the Salzgaberhaus...if you like sleeping in a big room on the floor on straw mats with ten other people. Hey I was 17!
ReplyDeleteI can't get enough of the noise- Middle East, Japan, Nuclear, Apocalypse.
ReplyDeleteOf course the only topic that matters is never discussed, the dollar. All hail MOPE.
Up down up down
ReplyDeleteBuy gold world
Reading about Zermatt, the town at the base of the Matterhorn:
ReplyDelete"The town of Zermatt remains completely free of internal combustion vehicles and can be reached by train only. (Electric vehicles are used locally)."
Well,
ReplyDeleteIf a daiiy cycle bottom is meant to dampen sentiment, this one is doing a fine job.
The question is, is there a Burrito shop in Zermatt!
ReplyDeletePretty quiet here today..
ReplyDeleteRB,
ReplyDeleteThat is a very important consideration. I may have to cancel the entire trip if Zermatt is burrito deficient.
we're busy bottom fishing...
ReplyDeleteRoooby Roooby Rooooo!
ReplyDeleteWe didnt exactly rocket out of the June low either, and that was the IT low. Patience is key, if one is to ride this thing, yet the USD is def acting up here...
ReplyDeletejapan is still skewing markets
ReplyDeletetime to shut down and go take a nap.
ReplyDeleteGary--
ReplyDeleteSince we have eaked out lower today that means it will be easier to form a swing low tomorrow, correct? (On GOLD)
Japan isn't going away over night. But it will eventually and it shouldn't be long before the dollar gets back to moving down into the three year cycle low and gold gets busy finishing it's C-wave advance.
ReplyDeleteFor the next week though traders will probably be better off just turning off their computers and doing something else.
USD at 76.72. Is it making another run to 77!
ReplyDeleteDaniel,
ReplyDeleteGold would need to make a lower low than yesterday. About $1382 if I remember right.
It's not really close to that right now and it would probably take a dollar rally above 77.50 to do that.
So I give it a 50/50 chance of making the lower low and easing the parameters for a swing.
it's a long shot...hope we get DG's buy signal today
ReplyDeleteAll the markets clearly oversold. We get any indication that those reactors are going to make it through without significant issues, then ALL risk trades will rally for a few days like there is no tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteBUT, watching that plunge today in realtime when that annoucnement came through gave me an idea that if there was a real meltdown on one of those reactors, we had the potential for a big 5% (equities) down day, maybe much more, towards 10%, IMO. I couldn't imagine the drop in Silver if we did 5% the other day.
Just thinking of possible contingencies, not expectations.
Gotcha!
ReplyDeleteI should have known that already!
I agree with Gary! Golfing and beach walks.
ReplyDelete....going to go finish reading DG's book.
ReplyDeleteBuy signal parameters have widened nicely. We can probably handle down 100 or so and still get it. C'mon---let's get a little lift into the close. Then maybe good news overnight and, Bang! We'll see.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteWhat other primary activities do you have planned for the Switzerland trip besides the Matterhorn climb? I doubt you plan on visiting anywhere outside Switzerland on the 10-day trip, correct? I may diverge and go to Paris for a few days and would like to arrange that properly, BUT if the 10-days is jam packed with nice activities I'd have no problem staying in Chocolate Money land.
DG,
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting your signal!
If today's close confirms the signal--and it looks like it will--would you consider repurchasing your SIL shares?
It's likely if the overall market goes up (what your signal is calling for), then miners will likely go up along with the overall market.
I'd like to take the glacier express to St. Moritz one day and even though I've already seen Chamonix we might rent a car and drive over one afternoon. I will probably be two days on the Matterhorn at some point so those will be free.
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteit looks like we are going to have a very long daily cycle here in gold, unless either we go lower than 1380's or higher by a lot 1430's. Could this be a problem to get the final C wave in the allotted amount of time (i.e. top in the first week of may?) thanks
DG,
ReplyDeleteOTOH, with Japan skewing all markets, maybe this will be the one time in 5 that your signal does not work?
I still have just under 20% of capital to put to work, and if this weakness continues into tomorrow morning I'll put it to work.
ReplyDeleteAfter that, I'll have to dip into margin to add. :)
Gary,
ReplyDeleteDo you have a climbing partner going with you, or will you hook up with a partner/guide over there?
PC: You may have misunderstood me. I meant we can handle Dow down 100, not down an additional 100, so we need to rally from here which we may or may not do.
ReplyDeleteI will not buy SIL back regardless, but will add to AGQ. SIL (and GDX and GDXJ, for that matter) has been a dog. That may or may not change but I see no reason to stick with SIL. AGQ is plenty volatile for me!
Shalom, you sound so incredibly sure!
ReplyDeleteThe end of April early May is just an estimate. This all depends on the dollar. when and if it decides to cave (and I think it will) things can get out of control rapidly. Besides gold is only 4 days past a "normal" cycle duration. It's not like we've lost a month.
ReplyDeletewhy does it feel like the USD is actually putting in a bottom and starting a new cycle...any thoughts from anyone?
ReplyDeleteI'll probably hire a guide although one of my climbing partners from here in Vegas is probably going also. He's already done the Matterhorn though and probably doesn't want to do it again.
ReplyDeleteHow does one "feel" a bottom?
ReplyDeleteAny time the miners & metals would like to decouple from the overall market would be fine with me.
ReplyDeleteI think that whole theory is being shot out of the water over and over.
Mr Miyagi,
ReplyDeleteI'm not incredibly sure of anything except my plan and approach to trading a bull market. :)
I have my stops and other than that I just have to let the bull do it's thing. We'll see.
a "bottom" can be felt different ways. It depends if you are a man or a woman
ReplyDeleteI guess I have too much in the market to make me feel comfortable because I am a bit freaked out right now.
ReplyDeleteIt sure doesn't look to me like the dollar is putting in a bottom. I find it incredible that with a potential nuclear disaster the dollar is lower than where it was last Wednesday. Not much of a bottom! It should be skyrocketing instead. News is irrelevant. What is relevant is how an item reacts to the news and it is hard to believe a more bullish scenario for the dollar could develop. Given that it seem destined to tank, IMO.
ReplyDeletenew lows on silver very likely (below yesterday's) as the retrace from today's high has exceeded 78 percent.
ReplyDeleteSnP is down 27, Gold is up 2...how much of a decoupling do you guys want?
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the feedback re SIL.
Has the overall market invalidated your signal as a resulting of going too low?
PC: Nope. Signal is generated at 4:00 ET. Anything can happen between now and then. I have been talking about likelihoods. If at the close things line up just right it is triggered. If not, not, though I can usually tell by 3:30 if it is possible or not.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI'm too scared to even look at my account, but i think that I was up maybe 30-40% and now might be in the RED...oh well...
ReplyDeletelooks like these black swan events are getting regular...
Let's see. Past five day's performance-
ReplyDeleteGDX -9.16%
SIL -11.85%
SLV -4.26%
SLW -11.75%
SPY -4.75%
Looks like your safer in the overall market vs. getting raped in these miners.
Indeed, hindsight is perfect.
ReplyDeletemakes me wonder what unforseen event will happen next week. :)
ReplyDeleteNo hindsight needed. It's a fact that in recent history, miners will bet pummeled during overall market sell offs. Miners act worse than the overall market actually.
ReplyDeleteYou guys are smart. I'm just a dumbass. If someone has a strategy to trade around these daily "wiggles" I'm all ears.
ReplyDeleteI had to pry the sell button off my computer just so I don't get tempted to book what's left of my profits.
ReplyDeleteUnless stopped out, I hate selling into weakness in bull markets.
I'm in a bad mood today. Trying to be extra irritable and panic stricken to induce this bottom to happen.
ReplyDeleteI appreciate you going the extra mile for us, Jay.
ReplyDeleteTrading wiggles are tough thing to do.
ReplyDeletePersonally I dont do wiggles simply because I hate paying commissions, and to top it off, I cant win all the time.
I also dont trade stocks, as a matter of fact I only own 1 stock and its an explorer (my lottery).
Patience my friends. Most of you have 10,000+ days ahead in your lives. Within less than 30 or so things shall be swell. Big picture is key. Divergence of attention from noise makers also key. Stay busy my friends (and thirsty ;).
ReplyDeleteShaggy said 'Yikes' and sold.
ReplyDeleteI am still in though!
Anyone seen Fred and Daphne? I bet they secretly lightened up in the mine(er)s. Pesky Kids!
Jay- I traded the daily cycle low last go around and I have to say I might be more comfortable doing that. I missed out on about 1500 bucks when all was said and done but I wasn't sitting through this either. This is a good lesson for me. My plan this time was to ride it through and since my entry was good enough this time sitting hasn't been an issue but if we continue to get new nuke news everyday about leakage and Tokyo is now empty the panic yesterday will seem mild.
ReplyDeleteDOW up 110 points in 22 minutes...
ReplyDeleteWhat the hell is going on here...
Looks like we are making a higher low.
ReplyDeleteJan low was an easier entry ..
ReplyDeletethis dollar flush with this socio-econo environment is cause for some bouncy trading, remember Nov 8 to Jan 3rd. That was a nut job of a roller coaster. triple topping.
Gold is one of the bull markets left though.
But crap it helped when the equities were along for the ride too. Too bad they are hurting.
Here's the thing in hindsight one could say it's better to trade daily cycles but only because this particular cycle happened to include an earthquake. Absent the earthquake the daily cycle low might have amounted to two or three very mild down days that one wouldn't be able to time the bottom of anyway.
ReplyDeleteIn real time it's almost almost a huge mistake to try and time the daily cycles in a final C-wave rally.
Earlier Gary told us that this bullmarket will be hard to ride..I didnt understood what he meant but I do now..
ReplyDeleteIts hard to stay in when the market is volatile..
I told my mom to sell all her mutual funds and go into cash yesterday.
ReplyDeleteI feel better, she's 67, she can't afford to lose her life savings.
jayhawks
ReplyDeletelook at real time charts of today , 5 minute and 15 min 3 days
you will feel better , they are buying it back (after gap closed from this morning)
It's time to grab DG's book and go lay out in the sun for a while :)
ReplyDeleteI;m looking at GPL and AG for example.
ReplyDelete1 day (today intra day) on 5 minute interval. looks like good buying :)
Gold still flying around like a fly swater
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeletehow much downside do you think? i'm thinking another daily cycle then a launch from April fools, gold should be around 1350.
Speaking of gaps, SLW has two big gaps all the way to 43$ that are open, I sure hope it gets closed and then some!
ReplyDeleteThat was the wash, guys.
ReplyDeleteI feel much better now.
I was reading DGs book and came back to take a look, geesshhh going to reading.
ReplyDeleteOMG, I'm so glad I have a dissertation to write as a distraction. Every time I check in, I just miss one of the dips. I never thought I'd say writing this sucker would be a sane thing to do, but relatively to watching the market . . .
ReplyDeleteMrMiyagi ... glad you took care of your Mom. No she can't afford to lose her life savings. I can't get my Mom out of CDs, she says the market is gambling. Right now, it sure feels that way.
ReplyDeleteThe Japanese are ready to connect a new powerline the Nuke plant. Iffthey reenergize the coolant pumps, katy bar the door on the rip we will get overnight.
ReplyDeleteJayhawk, send me a comment on my blog, I will share with you my hedging that is definitely smoothing out this daily cycle for me.
..at ease...
ReplyDeleteHer funds went on a steep dive in 2008, luckily they recovered and made gains but after reading Gary's GET OUT!, I figured it's time.
yes, I lost big in 2008, I never did regain all of mine, but last year, happened to run into someone who was an options trader and she said just put it in gold and I will do fine. By fall of 2010, I was hooked on gold. So had been looking for someone to guide me through the cycles (didn't know that prior) ups and downs. I found SMT early Feb and added silver and on the ride now with the bull. I will say it is volatile and I am used to getting in and out more, so staying in is taking some years off my life with this ride.
ReplyDeleteWell,
ReplyDeleteIf a daily cycle bottom ismeant to damoen sentiment, then this one is certainly doing its job!
Silver is down .23%
ReplyDeleteAGQ -1.67%
How much lower, do we have to go?
ReplyDeleteThe USD is not budging.
I think AGQ more or less tracks SLV, which I'm showing as -.60%
ReplyDeleteEdrwin,
ReplyDeleteThere won't be a daily cycle lower and then higher again. Intermediate cycles don't work that way.
If a daily cycle breaks below a prior cycle low it almost always means an intermediate decline has begun. Once gold puts in the daily cycle bottom it shouldn't get broken and the next leg up in the C-wave will be on.
That's why I say it's kind of meaningless to pick a level and place a stop. It's often just a guaranteed loss because the only level that has any meaning in volatile markets like the PM are daily cycle pivots.
They are the only levels that will act as a true stop and if broken have true meaning.
Jay: YOu need to compare SLV to AGQ, not silver. SLV and AGQ are in sync.
ReplyDeleteLooks like to buy signal as we have not gotten a rally. If we rally 50 points in the next 15 minutes I will post, otherwise no buy. Sigh. Tomorrow starts a fresh clock so no anticipation possible.
DG,
ReplyDeleteSo we'll need to see 11,685 or so on the DOW for the signal to kick in?
According to Gary's notes, we will have 2 BB trades if we close at these levels.
ReplyDeleteyes BB trade on the S&P, QQQQ, and HUI.
ReplyDeleteWe had a BB trade signal on GLD and SIL yesterday that is still good for today.
PC. No levels are involved. Just sit tight. I promise to post (but we are not getting that rally, so no go anyway) It's based on the dovetailing of several items so there is no way to figure it out, but I can often tell that if we rally some of the items will wind up where they need to. The Dow level (except up or down) is irrelevant.
ReplyDeleteNo chance for a signal today as the late day fade killed it. That of course does not mean we won't rally from here, just that the signal makes it a great bet. I bought a tiny bit of DFJ at 38.0---perhaps because I am nuts, but if the world doesn't end over there this thing is CHEAP
ReplyDeleteI am so glad I am not attempting to do this alone. I don't think I would have lasted and not pulled the trigger a few times out of panic!
ReplyDeleteThis just in-
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON (AP) -- The chief of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission says all the water is gone from one of the spent fuel pools at Japan's most troubled nuclear plant. This means there's nothing to stop the fuel rods from getting hotter and ultimately melting down.
The outer shell of the rods could also ignite with enough force to propel the radioactive fuel inside over a wide area.
Gregory Jaczko did not say Wednesday how the information was obtained, but the NRC and U.S. Department of Energy both have experts on site at the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex of six reactors.
He says officials believe radiation levels are extremely high, and that could affect workers' ability to stop temperatures from escalating.
From levels before this incident to the lows in Nikkei futures their market is down roughly 22%
ReplyDelete(This might have been covered before.)
ReplyDeleteI thought gold always rose during any negative world event.
Looks like that changed....
So where does the money go? - treasuries and wind power someone said.
If they go into treasuries then the dollar would rise - like it did in 08, as people have to buy dollars to buy treasuries.
That didn't really happen.
John
Should have bought some shares of VXX last Friday. This natural/nuclear disaster is causing it to explode higher (no pun intended), just like the oil drilling disaster last year.
ReplyDeleteGeez, that is awful, jayhawk. Man, I feel so sorry for all people in Japan right now. We're over here worrying about our PM trades watching numbers on a screen, and they are dealing with a life threatening situation, one that could affect millions. Let's hope and pray they can figure something out that will prevent a meltdown and/or explosion.
ReplyDeleteJohn,
ReplyDeleteWhy do people have to buy dollars to buy treasuries? If I am an American and have an American account, I can sell stock and buy treasuries.
If I'm a foreigner, I would sell stock, convert to dollars, then use the dollars to buy treasuries. So the net effect on the dollar would be zero, no?
John thats a misconception, and the media keeps repeating this false pretense. Gold usually does not react positively in world events, it is NOT a safe haven, or it doesnt react that way immediately for sure.
ReplyDeleteWell - that makes sense PC ...
ReplyDeleteIt's what people like Bob Hoye (I think) were saying back then.
I think anyone with a little commonsense can see that gold is a commodity that is sensitive to excess money creation.
ReplyDeleteI guarantee no one is thinking I'm going to buy gold because I feel safer owning gold when world events are in turmoil.
I know that thought never crosses my mind when I buy gold or silver and I'm pretty sure no one else is thinking that either.
We all buy for the same reason. We expect prices to eventually go up. If the fundamentals support higher prices then eventually they will go up. And they will continue to go up until either the fundamentals change or a price level is reached where sentiment has reached a bullish extreme to such a degree that we run out of buyers.
Once that happens gold undergoes a violent regression to the mean profit taking event.
One needs to ask themselves have the events in Japan changed the fundamentals driving the gold bull? I would say if anything they have made it stronger.
Have we seen a parabolic event take gold to the kind of stretched levels where sentiment becomes extreme and it is in jeopardy of a sharp regression to the mean correction.
Nope, sentiment is dead neutral.
So I have to assume that once this passes the fundamentals will take over again and drive gold into that final C-wave top.
News says we have to start checking our food now for radiation and will fuel inflation fears. Does anyone know a good geiger counter company name?
ReplyDeleteMy understanding is that a meltdown is not as ominous as it sounds from a health risk perspective and that a meltdown does not implicitly mean that there will be an explosion. That said, if there is an ignition and expulsion of radioactive material into the atmosphere then all bets are off.
ReplyDeleteat ease,
ReplyDeleteHere you go:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/girls-latest-best-friend-keychain-geiger-counters
Le Fou... too much, wow look at those prices and once inflation gets going.
ReplyDeleteI can now comment on your lovely trip that is coming up since the market is now close. Have a great time.
ReplyDeleteI have been to that part of the world a couple of times skiing. Best holiday ever. Breath taking!!
XAU kissed the 200 MA both today and yesterday. Hope it's not trying to push through!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI know a lot are saying if you're not leveraged then there's no worry of a margin call. But I'm wondering if it'll be safe to hold AGQ/HZU if we continue to keep going lower. Anybody holding these concerned about decay factor?
ReplyDeleteRyan, I have AGQ both in stock and options. And I have to say; ouch, I feel your pain. :)
ReplyDeleteEvents in Bahrain are sliping under the radar as the focus is on Japan.
ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteYou would only have to worry if you think gold's intermediate cycle has topped after only 6 weeks.
I don't see any sign of that at the moment. On the contrary I'm astounded at the incredible strength silver has shown all during this correction.
Does anyone else realize silver is only a little over $2.00 off all time highs and holding far above the 50 DMA despite everything that's happening in the world.
This thing is set up to explode once the selling pressure is released.
at ease,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your plans? Are you planning on just holding through the pain (potentially more) even if they're underwater?
Gary,
ReplyDeleteMy sentiments exactly about the price of silver and gold in the past few days. 2 bucks off the tops, not bad at all.
Has anyone seen this from Porter & Stansberry?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theprojecttorestoreamerica.com/
I guess I'm somewhat confused. The dollar is at 80.69 but yet they say as the dollar rises, gold will drop by 3%. So then why is gold/silver and the dollar all dropping together now? We were to pull out at 78.82 and the low was 79.25.
ReplyDeleteHas pulling the trigger changed?
(I'm twitching right now in the red)
ryan said: "What are your plans? Are you planning on just holding through the pain (potentially more) even if they're underwater?"
ReplyDeleteRiding the bull to the top of the C wave until Gary says get out.
... and mine are already way underwater as I only started buying back a few weeks ago on dips.
The dollar is still under 77 not over 80?
ReplyDeleteMy bad...I was looking at USDJPY=X @80.7150
ReplyDeleteShould have looked at DX-Y.NYB @76.64
Nerves got the best of me today like everyone else...
what's happening to the USD -
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
i'm showing 76.29
USD/JPY now 76.57
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteI don't think gold's intermediate cycle has topped but I'm just concerned that what's happening over in Japan has changed things up a bit (my heart goes out to everybody's family there).
I'm worried that there may be more selling pressure before we can resume the c-wave. I know another bad day and I'll be in the red. It'll be really hard for me psychologically for me since I would have gone from flying head to deep in the red. It'll definitely be hard for me to hold on or even add with the rest of my dry powder once I'm in the red. I did manage to add yesterday which turned out to be early.
Dollar just flash crashed against the yen and dollar index made a new low. Check zero hedge for story.
ReplyDeleteDollar has already given up all of the gains today and has moved below the low on Monday
ReplyDeleteDollar chart here:
ReplyDeletewww.chartseeker {dot}com/images/USDX-24HR-LG.png
You need to piece the link together yourself. Sorry. Blogger keeps hitting me as spammer.
Folks prepare yourselves for gold to make a lower low in the next few days. I'm not saying it will happen for sure, but it will ease the parameters for a swing and make putting in a cycle bottom easier.
ReplyDeleteIf you are getting too emotional at this point then you need to either reduce position size or turn off your computer for the next week and do something else.
The other site was good, but this one is better:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thedailycrux.com/content/7191/Porter_Stansberry/eml
There I put back spammed comments.
ReplyDeleteLet me know when something gets caught as spam and I will fix it.
Liquidity issues.
ReplyDeleteGary, when I say spammer what they do is lock my account and ask me for a phone number (which is not something I desire to provide to post on an internet blog).
ReplyDeleteIt forces creation of a new account each time.
There is nothing you can do. It's a google thing. It happens based on how many and what kind of links you put in a post. kingworldnews dotter com is what knocked me out last time.
Gary, as before I disagree and say gold won't violate the low yesterday.
ReplyDeleteThat was a solid low from my view (and based on a system I have) (unless japan causes everything to meltdown - which is a black swan that not much can be done about).
We'll see.
The dollar dropping hard right now is gonna help my case greatly when gold opens in 30 min.
No news yet on why the dollar is collapsing against yen. Perhaps they have cracked and finally indicated the selling of our treasuries to pay the bills.
ReplyDeleteTZ,
ReplyDeleteWhat you are saying is that you believe yesterday was a cycle low. If it was then yes you are right it won't get violated. I'm just not sure it was yet. I need to see something that suggests it was the low like a swing or at least some pretty strong upside action.
If the dollar cycle fails that would go a long way towards confirming golds cycle low especially if gold rallies hard.
Ryan... just keep repeating to yourself... "no pain, no gain".
ReplyDeleteKeep in mind after the pain, comes gain.
Gary: The dollar traded below 76.12 to 76.06 a little bit ago according to
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
Significant, or am I missing something?
Looks like the dollar is getting hammered right now...
ReplyDeleteWhere are people seeing the dollar getting hammered. The spot price is down .11% to 76.25??
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
DG,
ReplyDeleteWell we've been expecting it all along so I can't say I'm surprised :)
The next and final target is the November pivot.
why does all the action happen after the closing bell. This makes me have to watch the USD day and night. LOL
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to June!
DG, its USDJPY: http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=USDJPY=X
ReplyDeleteEither its a margin call or Japan is liquidating treasuries (and likely everything else) in order to free up cash.
At least that is my read.
US Dollar Index: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?c=$usd%2Cuu[w%2Ca]waclyyay[df][pd20%2C2.5!b40][vc60][ilb14!ll14]
ReplyDeleteThanks, Blammo. So the dollar is not crashing (because it is now flat against a basket). The Yen is surging. GLD in the after-market is barely reacting.
ReplyDeleteMine too, Blammo.
ReplyDeleteUSDJPY Goes Bidless
ReplyDelete"One can only watch this devastation with horror. USDJPY drops to 76. Unbelievable. Many Wall Street FX desks are blowing up right at this moment."
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/usdjpy-goes-bidless?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Euro has spiked as well....and the dollar index plunged, but has recovered a bit.
ReplyDeleteDollar at 76.25
ReplyDeleteGold/Silver opening weaker.
ReplyDeleteTalk of closing Japan markets Thursday
ReplyDeleteGold & silver dropping in a straight line along with dollar!
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteDoes this after hours action in the USD count (new low 76.06) or does it have to happen when the market is open?
Can someone explain what's going on, if the USD dropped so much, how come silver and gold is dropping as well?
ReplyDeleteGold & silver dropping along with dramatic drop in USD!
ReplyDeleteRyan, I think Gary said to expect it to drop some more. It's ok, it's happening as he said it would. Hang in there.
ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteGold/Silver are priced in dollars, but it's still subject to demand like any other asset. Whatever gains related to the currency depreciated are obviously being more than compensated by the selling of the asset.
"Ryan: Can someone explain what's going on, if the USD dropped so much, how come silver and gold is dropping as well?"
ReplyDeleteThat was an earlier question of mine.
Of interest when I talked to my bullion broker today, he said a lot of margin calls are coming in where people have to sell their gold. He said Gold is the quickest most liquidable asset to cover the margin calls. He said you must vbe doing good if you are buying while others are selling.
ReplyDeleteMan, you guys are in an alternate universe. The dollar against a basket of currencies is down .07%. That';s why gold is not moving against it---nothing is happening! Please show me where you see the dollar "plunging" except against the yen?
ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteBased on the anxiety in your posts, you may be trading too large, above your emotional skill level, so to speak. That's another way of saying that you entered positions without fully understanding and accepting your risk. Been there, done that, and I guarantee you that every trader on this board has done the same thing at one time or another.
The bull may bail you out on this trade, he may not. Either way, the only thing in this game you can control is your risk. If you’re not doing that you will eventually lose money. Part of managing risk is knowing how you will react to losses and sizing your positions accordingly.
Gary isn’t going to control your risk – he will tell you how he controls his own risk. His stops are at the IT lows for gold. If you don’t have his entry, you may not want to rely on his risk management plan.
Sorry if this is off the mark, but I went through a similar experience not long ago and I know it’s no fun. Best of luck to you.
DG,
ReplyDeleteIt's plunge and recovered a little, but still down .35%!
Look at Day chart
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=DXY:IND
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteI think it has something to do with the USD/YEN. Its to complicated to explain but if someone is able to, please go ahead.
Thanks, Poly. .34% is hardly a plunge. Gold does not have to rally based on that "collapse" (which has now been cut to .144%) Hardly a mystery here.
ReplyDeleteRyan, I believe once the USD breaks the Nov low, we will see what are looking for.
ReplyDeleteThe Day The Yen Carry Trade Died
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 03/16/2011 17:59 -0400
While everyone is staring in disbelief at the USDJPY, the real carry action is in the high yielding-YEN pairs, i.e., the development, high growing countries. And it's a massacre: ZARJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY - all are plunging far more than the USD. This is nothing short of a complete carry trade unwind. The implications: the cheapest recurring source of funding for risk assets - the Yen carry trade, is over. Those who managed to sell early on are lucky. The rest will get such an onslaught of margin calls tomorrow they may need to access the discount window (if Primary Dealers and the luckier banks). Many will be forced to sell assets to satisfy collateral requirements as ongoing sales of carry pairs push the Yen ever higher, and force ever more liquidity out of the market. And if the Yen carry trade is done, the question is when will the USD, which has also been a carry currency for some time, follow suit. And, once again, the most troubling observation is that the BOJ has not intervened. Our sinking feeling is that after pumping 50 trillion or so in money markets, the petty cash may be running quite low. In any case, ES opens in 2 minutes. Grab the popcorn now.
DG,
ReplyDeleteI made no mention to gold.
2nd, it settled at .35% down, "plunged earlier". It went from 76.7 to 76.05 in 10 minutes, sorry, that's a plunge.
Ryan, still learning like you, but I watch the live numbers on this link someone posted prior:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.netdania.com/Products/live-streaming-currency-rates-foreign-exchange/real-time-quotes/QuoteList.aspx?m=q
Hi Gary,
ReplyDeleteWe're going old turkey here with the belief that the USD is going to tank..
the USD just took out the previous low at 76.12 and gold seems to be going down with it.
does our theory still hold?
or is this all just emotion trading...
Thanks for the replies guys. I think Josh is right, I started off small and then got greedy and kept on adding on the way up. Now the daily swings have become pretty large and I have to admit it's hard for me to control my emotions. I really don't want to drop any of my positions either since I've held on for so long already. I will try to tough it out a little longer.
ReplyDeleteKitco link here usually breaks into the two components on why gold/silver moves up or down:
ReplyDelete1) US $ impact
2) Supply/Demand
If data in the link below is correct, there is more selling going on- hence the drop in G/S prices despite US $ drop.
But I will be damned- never expected the US $ to drop so fast (as Gary has been saying)- this break of support is expected to trigger a technical related waterfall....
Still curious to see how the Japan nuclear situation factors in all this short term....
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
at ease,
ReplyDeleteThanks, I use that site as well to watch along with the kitco app which is probably a bad thing since I see every ticker as it happens. I should just uninstall it lol.
Ryan, Just don't sell out of fear. Keep your head. Gold and Silver is cyclical, we are just on the downside of the cycle. It will come back up as it is in a bull market that I believe is to run another 5 years.
ReplyDeleteThe DXY plunge here was a YEN event, it's up huge since the Asian open. That's not to discount Gary's 3 yr cycle work, just saying.
ReplyDeleteRyan,
ReplyDeleteIf you're up, don't try to ride it out, you should consider selling back a little for comfort, you will feel MUCH better. If you're that invested, you will make plenty with a reduced holding anyway.
What an education this is for me.
ReplyDeleteNintendo, can I ask a dumb question? What is "ES" as in "ES opens in two minutes." I could use some popcorn.