"The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and the U.S. state of Hawaii."
Hi - I'm in Japan - Tokyo - the earthquake was just north of here in Sendai. Mag 8.8, hit twice. Many dead - swept away by tsunami - Sendai airport inundated - cars and houses floating down rivers - a gas plant blew so am sure all workers there died in the blast or were burned alive - trains have all stopped so folks are stranded everywhere - phones all down - email and text msging are up though. My family are fine here - I have our money and passports packed w/clothes and water - there were 2 events - each lasting 5 mins or more - so it was very long - I flew out of our brick apt as I ain't gonna die here, not now - am afraid to sleep now - every little wiggle has me jumping out of my skin and ready to grab the bags and flee - we are very lucky as it could be worse - Tokyo is the epicenter of 4 tectonic plates, w/volcanic Mt. Fuji at the center. Anyways I misse the Kobe one by a few months, but this one was 180 times more powerful - I fear it's not over yet. In the end, alls one has is one's integrity and one's family. So far so good, and am so sorry for those who died or are still stuck away from home.
And to Paul's point about tsunami's and the tsunami warning in Hawaii, it's no joke as the one that wiped out Hilo came from Chile I think it was - they are very powerful and can travel very far. And it's the 2nd wave in the series that kills.
Gary, nice charts. About Bernanke, maybe he's stupid, or maybe he's in the pockets of GS and so on, but living out here in Asia for 30 yrs, near to China and N. Korea, part of me thinks that something else is going on, like national security. I don't have anything to back that up with, just I have a hard time believing that so many ivy league execs are that stupid or that greedy. So I'm just saying I don't know why they're doing what they're doing, but you're right that the dollar will fall and commodities will rise. I did hear something about China and silver a few yrs back - maybe old news, maybe not.
Did you all know that gold was formed in a supernovae a few billion yrs ago? I think every element heavier than carbon came from supernovae explosions.
Did you know that Timbuktu is an actual place, in Africa, where gold from the south was traded for salt from the north, oz for oz?
These are last words in case I don't see the morning. Had to leave my mark on your blog, Gary!
It's not death that we humans fear, it's the suffering just before.
The dollar should be soaring right now, yet it's struggling to remain positive.
I don't think it will be long before the dead cat bounce is over and the dollar breaks through the November low. A slightly lower low by gold would set up the swing low we are looking for.
It's a waste of time to pick a number on the chart at this point. We just have to wait for the cycle low to form. The warning sign would come if gold bounces out of the cycle low then rolls over and moves below that pivot. That would form a pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
But to just arbitrarily pick a number and say if gold falls below this it means the party is over is meaningless. The emotional metals market can easily break technical chart levels.
The only number at this point that would carry that kind of significance is $1307.
That was the last daily cycle low.
Gold would have to drop below $1350 to even break the intermediate trend line.
Phew! I have taken on board all of Gary's advice and I have now managed to sell all of my precious metals. Just sold all my silver. Hopefully I will be able to buy it all back at the top of this C-wave thingy.
Just 3 days ago most scoffed at TZ suggestion of up to a 10% hit in Silver. Well it's now 7% off the highs and counting.
As gold hopefully going to swing, it's sharp down days like this that often bring about bottoms. A week of consolidation and 7% drop is the perfect setup.
Longish, broad ranging interview last night with Jim Sinclair - 35 year gold industry veteran - which discusses the action yesterday (violent moves happen around round numbers), trading gold (if you must trade, there are areas/triggers for trading), long term price targets (1600+), QE (it can't stop), etc.
Much of what he suggests pretty directly supports many of Gary's longer term views.
A word on inflation - I went to grocery store yesterday to buy 1 large fugi apple (not organic) and some water for lunch. Price of 1 apple $1.20 - I put it back and had water for lunch. Living in Northern CA is expensive, but this is ridiculous. Cheap gas is $3.87 - Don't get lulled by this correction is metals. The hard stuff seems to hold up better than the miners. Maybe Gary can speak to that.
My exit plan-silver closes under the 20 MA for 2 days, I'm selling most positions.
Silver's trendline now broken, 10 has been violated, 20 rising up around 33.44 on /SI. I think that 20 MA must hold or else this C wave stuff is not correct.
DOC has an alternative scenario on the dollar, which could be the reason why things may not take off for a bit longer.
On the contrary things are looking exactly like a daily cycle correction and people are now starting to make emotional decisions like selling into the bottom of a cycle correction instead of buying.
Silver will be down two days. Two days and everyone is starting to think it's the end of the world.
Folks silver could go all the way back to $31 and all it would be is a test of the break out. Once the cycle bottom is in all losses could and probably would be recovered in 2-3 days.
If we close down today I have a decent chance at a system buy! I won;t know how likely until later in the day but will post. Nice to get these a little more frequently. Stocks/gold bottom together?
Think its good that Gary try to get the troops together because I see some panic here..I dont know why actually..A lot of people warned us that a cycle low correction will soon strike against us..
Gary, Poly and TZ warned us a week ago..This is why so few people will can add when the price go down..Panic..Some people will sell..
A think we are close to the bottom now in silver and gold..Bernanke is pissing his pants and will do anythink to prop the market up.
The dollar will soon fall back again..No reason to try and change the fundamental here..
Think 34,05 was the bottom in silver..Will soon be the swing we are looking for..
Actually I think the dollar will move down and under 77 today..
I'm not selling here Gary, I attempted to grab some SLW calls there at the open and that sucker ran away so hard I missed it.
I'm looking to top off, the 20 MA violation for 2 plus days would concern me and I would consider scaling back then. I don't think that would happen. (Violation==daily close under followed by the next day taking out the prior days low)
I know lines on charts get broken all the time, but... DX backtested broken the 11/10 & 2/11 support trendline yesterday and today. Still below. GC backtested 12/10 & 1/11 broken resistance trendline yesterday. Looking for possible kiss goodbye on both.
If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it's turn correcting.
Thanks for posting. Glad you and your family are okay, but so sorry for those who didn't make it.
Are you planning to leave the country any time soon? Good luck to you!
It's strange and ironic that the "Pacific Ring of Fire" has several areas of high density populations. California and Japan come to mind, but there's also the Philippines and Indonesia. The whole area is a time bomb that will go off again and again...
I managed to snag some HZU at the low of day ... that's my fill at 29.51 ... unfortunately it was only a partial fill I had to buy the rest at market :)
The dollar can't form a swing today. But it did make a slightly higher high this morning. If it ends the day lower it will be set up to form the swing on Monday with any weakness at all.
I'm surprised to find my accounts barely in the red today considering how silver is acting. Still, I had some pretty hairy negative marks this morning (daily).
But the bigger picture is even at the worst levels on the open, I was still up roughly 30% on this round over the last couple months.
One thing the dollar does have going for it is that large specs are long at near record levels in the ausse, loonie, and euro vs the dollar at least for the past couple of years. This usually leads to a severe correction to wash these specs out. The last time spec longs were this long the euro, the euro dropped 14 cents over the next few months.
I know, but unfortunately I missed it. I was on the phone trying to wrap things up before the open but it went 2-3 minutes over. Too late!
I'm still scoping to add though, so thanks for those fib levels. they seem as good a place as any, so will buy weakness if we get it, or pay these prices if things meander at these levels into next week.
Congrats Romeo ... I have 3 kids (umm adults!) ... lots of good years ahead of you. By him/her some silver/gold coins. By the time their ready for college 1 gold coin outta do it :)
Gary: Thanks. Without your confidence and analysis I'd have cut back some this morning had I been on my own. As a result of your work I didn't sell a share. I am relatively full up at this point so did not add but may add a little on the swing low being set. about 1/2 my net worth in silver is enough for right now, but as I get more room I may push it farther.
I'm really just recycling Gary's info, to fit my style. :) So yes, for me its a deal and I think smart money is buying, not panicking. I've done all the buying I can safely handle.
Gary's post right above this is just perfect. He has been been so spot on down to the daily wiggles, it's not even funny!
Close em now! If we close now I get a buy. Those of you who have been around a while know how good they have been. I will buy $300k or so worth of SPY's if we get it. I am running out of cash with all this silver clogging up my account (j/k---happy to have it). Look for a post at 3:50 if the Dow is down modestly. An up day or big down day aborts it.
Well good news is that I slept through the horrible open but bad news is I still wanted to add to my AGQ/HZU. Shall I wait or just throw the rest of my dry powder in now?
Steven, I have no idea. But I do know that gold is now 29 days into it's daily cycle (possibly day 1 if yesterday was the bottom). I know it tagged the 20 DMA yesterday. That combination is enough to go ahead and swing the bat even if it doesn't turn out to be the exact bottom.
If today turns out to be the bottom I'm changing my religion to whichever one has you as god!
Oh, and as many burritos you can eat. I'm actually an investor in a burrito company so I'll send you some when the C wave is over and you have a big appetite!
SB said: "If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it's turn correcting."
That's my take, too.
We could have got 'em a little cheaper today, but you had to be quick!
The decline in SLW halted on the quick retest of the puke-out lows from Thursday 2/24.
It's late enough in the daily cycle that if that wasn't the low it's very close time wise. What are the odds you will catch the exact bottom even if it's still ahead of us?
Virtually zero.
For me a touch of the 20 DMA yesterday represented value so I bought and I didn't worry if it was the exact bottom. It was close enough.
Decide if you more worried about catching the exact bottom or can you be satisfied with close enough?
Thanks Gary, I should of just pressed the button when you said swing the bat because look at it leave the station now lol. Well, at least I'm glad I added with you yesterday.
Bede: Re my book: I have been keeping my professional life (author/public speaker) off the blog. Not sure why to tell you the truth, but am---for now---more comfortable that way so sorry, the book will need to stay a secret. It deals with how to master your thoughts and emotions (very useful for a trader!) and I sent it to Gary as a "thank you." I train Special Forces troops, NASA test pilots, SF Police Academy, Navy, corporate executives, etc.
I picked up Leal Life by Dr. Phil McGraw for $2 at Odd Lots. Preparing for the 7 Most Challenging Days of Your Life. Anyone read any of DPs books? Let's see?
The most challenging 3 months of my life may have been when the unexpected USD rally stretched this gold c-wave grand finally. What caused it again? Euro nation soverign debt? Lag in production dlayed oil price increases?
SB: To master the instinctive reactive process. When the lymbic system part of your brain kicks in you do stupid things (like sell in a panic or curse out your mother-in-law). While an automatic response we can train ourselves to overcome the normal flood of chemicals. That's what martial artists train to do. You slap one in the face and their neural response is actually calm---not passive, just not out of control. If they decide to take you out you are dead, but it is a conscious choice not a "I can;t stand it" kind of response. This is a learnable skill and we have trained over 20,000 people the past 15 years.
NASA has test pilots? Guess they used to land the shuttle.
Military training Terrorizes you. Gets you ready to think on your feet, etc. Retire?
One of my instructors had a million stories, about all he was good for. When he was fireman, they ran through burning magnesium. They had to have fire hoses spraying on them to keep from incinerating.
What would really scare me is climbing a 60 fool ladder.
Before you get too excited Beano, take a look at the charts. First day up on SOX, and it can only manage .5% while everybody else is scoring left and right with metals.
Seriously, peeking in on the first measely day up after a thorough beating doesn't bolster your case, IMO.
At this point I would say the odds are very high gold's daily cycle has bottomed.
We should see a weak bounce in stocks over the next few days as commodities start to spike. But it won't be long before surging inflation causes the stock market to roll over and make another lower low.
beanie, You are confusing expectations of intermediate tops with a final bull market top. back in Jan I was just expecting an intermediate top.
Now I'm saying there's a good chance the cyclical bull has topped. It seems pretty clear the intermediate cycle has topped. Now we just have to see if the decline breaks below the November low.
If that happens the odds skyrocket that the cyclical bull is finished.
Nobody is perfect, but I recall Gary picking big runs in equities, especially the low out of the Summer to new cyclical bull market high's.
But this isn't about the specific calls, your history of trolling these types of sights and going against the grain is legendary. In fact going as far back as 2007/08 you've been hitting the site, guess you're Gary's oldest fan :)
Guys, Beenie is right. I'm on his team, forget this ridiculous fear trade. The global economy is poised for an explosion of growth. We will see DOW 20K within 3 months. Tech stocks will be bought by homeless people and your great grandmothers. Doom and gloomers will be trying to sell their worthless silver to any and all takers under 5 bucks a share.
To save you the cost and agony of a black belt, I just meditate. Instead of blowing up at my in-laws, I pretend I am putting a run to their head and pulling the trigger; then of cource, there are consequences. Not worth it.
Poly clown - stop bashing Hammy - as Hammies NAV is at new all time highs - despite gold and silver and crude still ways of their highs.
Up over 743% as of now since October 2010, when I started recording my NAV. Besides being in physical since almost a decade. Still own phyisical silver I bought below $7.
So do you think i care a second about your (or others) continued hatred here?
BTW i report my NAV almost each day in my blog - do you - or the other bashers here???
Call me gloating ... call me this, call me that ... i report facts, I report sometimes when i exit, or when i reenter ... do you think I care what you think about me?
Trading is not about bashing other poeple - but about trading and learning from those who have a proven record in being profitable. Either shortterm or mediumterm or longterm.
Trading is about making money - and having ones eyes on the charts. Those which have time to bash others - are usually worthless crap just filling space.
BTW I like what Gary offers in his protected area - but the hatred presented in this blog - is beyond what I have seen before. Just the Yahoo boards are worse. And calling Kitco a site with penny dealers just confirms that thsi site is just about bashing and a few glory insiders.
Same as was with gold-eagle. That board is dead as of now. Due to the folks posting here - intolerant like here.
Is there any way you can change your name back to vuvvy? I keep picturing you sitting there infront of your computer in drag. NTTAWWT... And now that everyone is using pics of Bernanke the image in my mind has morphed into one of Ben in drag.
Great Charts Gary, thank you.
ReplyDeleteThose charts pretty well sum things up. Good job as usual.
ReplyDeleteAMoldyHamsammich,
ReplyDeleteYou definitely lighten the mood. You and Shalom (Everything is Ok) Bernanke always crack me up :-)
I actually did not have a problem with Hammy's calls. It was more his arrogant "I know what I am doing but do you?" attitude.
8.9 earthquake in Japan followed by a tsunami. Tsunami watch for Guam, Taiwan, and Hawaii. Just want to make people aware.
ReplyDelete"The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii said a tsunami warning was in effect for Japan, Russia, Marcus Island and the Northern Marianas. A tsunami watch has been issued for Guam, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and the U.S. state of Hawaii."
ReplyDeleteHi - I'm in Japan - Tokyo - the earthquake was just north of here in Sendai. Mag 8.8, hit twice. Many dead - swept away by tsunami - Sendai airport inundated - cars and houses floating down rivers - a gas plant blew so am sure all workers there died in the blast or were burned alive - trains have all stopped so folks are stranded everywhere - phones all down - email and text msging are up though. My family are fine here - I have our money and passports packed w/clothes and water - there were 2 events - each lasting 5 mins or more - so it was very long - I flew out of our brick apt as I ain't gonna die here, not now - am afraid to sleep now - every little wiggle has me jumping out of my skin and ready to grab the bags and flee - we are very lucky as it could be worse - Tokyo is the epicenter of 4 tectonic plates, w/volcanic Mt. Fuji at the center. Anyways I misse the Kobe one by a few months, but this one was 180 times more powerful - I fear it's not over yet. In the end, alls one has is one's integrity and one's family. So far so good, and am so sorry for those who died or are still stuck away from home.
ReplyDeletefinally a trend brake on silver
ReplyDeletegold is holding on quite well
ReplyDeleteAnd to Paul's point about tsunami's and the tsunami warning in Hawaii, it's no joke as the one that wiped out Hilo came from Chile I think it was - they are very powerful and can travel very far. And it's the 2nd wave in the series that kills.
ReplyDeleteGary, nice charts. About Bernanke, maybe he's stupid, or maybe he's in the pockets of GS and so on, but living out here in Asia for 30 yrs, near to China and N. Korea, part of me thinks that something else is going on, like national security. I don't have anything to back that up with, just I have a hard time believing that so many ivy league execs are that stupid or that greedy. So I'm just saying I don't know why they're doing what they're doing, but you're right that the dollar will fall and commodities will rise. I did hear something about China and silver a few yrs back - maybe old news, maybe not.
Did you all know that gold was formed in a supernovae a few billion yrs ago? I think every element heavier than carbon came from supernovae explosions.
ReplyDeleteDid you know that Timbuktu is an actual place, in Africa, where gold from the south was traded for salt from the north, oz for oz?
These are last words in case I don't see the morning. Had to leave my mark on your blog, Gary!
It's not death that we humans fear, it's the suffering just before.
Rumors of HAARP weapon used to trigger Japan earthquake/tsunami ... silver getting shit stomped
ReplyDeletehttp://www.atlanteanconspiracy.com/2011/03/japan-tsunami-caused-by-haarp.html
http://us.figu.org/portal/Knowledge/HAARPProject/tabid/110/Default.aspx
just looking at the footage.
ReplyDeleteunbelievable.
hang on there bill
If you believe in the long-term picture presented by Gary, then now is the time to be buying.
ReplyDeleteYup, just bought 5000 oz silver spot.
ReplyDeletealmost all in at 34.43.
ReplyDeletelets hope Gary's crystal ball is working again
Euro is flirting with disaster
ReplyDeleteGuy,
ReplyDeleteCongrats on your buy - looks like a good one.
Didn't think Gary's crystal ball was broken in the first place :-)
David K.
ReplyDeleteYes...the Euro is making lower low and dollar making higher high.
But what makes you say its going to be a "disaster"?
david,
ReplyDeletei hope you were right with your pick on the high 33's yesterday.
still feeling the same way?
RA,
ReplyDeleteIf the Euro shows weakness below 1.37 I think the odds are very high it will trade below 1.28. So that is my definition of disaster.
Let´s hope it just keeps flirting.
David K,
ReplyDeleteIf the Euro blows up, then the dollar rises.
Is that necesarily bad for PM's?
Weakness in Euro could drive PM's too?
The dollar should be soaring right now, yet it's struggling to remain positive.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it will be long before the dead cat bounce is over and the dollar breaks through the November low. A slightly lower low by gold would set up the swing low we are looking for.
RA,
ReplyDeletePMs could surely rise with the dollar. But I will not bet on it.
Euro debt problems, mid east crises and a massive Japan earthquake, have the dollar up a massive 0.07!
ReplyDeleteguy,
ReplyDeleteIt really depends on gold. The support area for silver, as I see it, is from 32.90 to 33.70. I don´t want to see gold breaking 1390.
gold is holding on very nice IMO
ReplyDeleteIt's a waste of time to pick a number on the chart at this point. We just have to wait for the cycle low to form. The warning sign would come if gold bounces out of the cycle low then rolls over and moves below that pivot. That would form a pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
ReplyDeleteBut to just arbitrarily pick a number and say if gold falls below this it means the party is over is meaningless. The emotional metals market can easily break technical chart levels.
The only number at this point that would carry that kind of significance is $1307.
That was the last daily cycle low.
Gold would have to drop below $1350 to even break the intermediate trend line.
Yep, my number is just a random number :)
ReplyDeletePhew! I have taken on board all of Gary's advice and I have now managed to sell all of my precious metals. Just sold all my silver. Hopefully I will be able to buy it all back at the top of this C-wave thingy.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, the number has significance in the current context. If gold were to rally 20-25 points from here, then breaking 1390 would not mean much.
ReplyDeletedavid,
ReplyDeleteplease elaborate
Just 3 days ago most scoffed at TZ suggestion of up to a 10% hit in Silver. Well it's now 7% off the highs and counting.
ReplyDeleteAs gold hopefully going to swing, it's sharp down days like this that often bring about bottoms. A week of consolidation and 7% drop is the perfect setup.
Looks like more pain in the immediate future. I better eat a big breakfast, something like a farm fresh Hammy,Egg&Cheese on a toasted English muffin.
ReplyDeleteLongish, broad ranging interview last night with Jim Sinclair - 35 year gold industry veteran - which discusses the action yesterday (violent moves happen around round numbers), trading gold (if you must trade, there are areas/triggers for trading), long term price targets (1600+), QE (it can't stop), etc.
ReplyDeleteMuch of what he suggests pretty directly supports many of Gary's longer term views.
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/3/11_Jim_Sinclair.html
Having trouble posting the URL- if interested, the interview is at King World News.
ReplyDeleteThose charts are going to TICK the BEANIE off
ReplyDeleteHHMMM, Been kind of quiet here this week from him and his solar and SOXX
:)
Gordon,LOL!
ReplyDeleteI just made it to Pauls and BILS TSunami post , and turned on the news :(
ReplyDeleteThey are calling for possible tsunami on U.S. Pacific coast (California) etc and showed Japan.
Sad enough as it is, and I would imagine even some of our guys on here could be affected (DG is California for ex)
Poly,
ReplyDeleteI guess you will get a chance to buy your lottery ticket today. Those APR SLV $40 should be close to your target of $0.20 this morning.
I heard a nucleur power plant on fire in Japan.My prayers go out to them. The videos of the tsunami in northern Japan are just heartwrenching.
ReplyDeleteAt this point I would not be surprised if gold breaks through 1400 and closes just above it.
ReplyDeleteThe miners should hold better this time.
James
A word on inflation - I went to grocery store yesterday to buy 1 large fugi apple (not organic) and some water for lunch. Price of 1 apple $1.20 - I put it back and had water for lunch. Living in Northern CA is expensive, but this is ridiculous. Cheap gas is $3.87 -
ReplyDeleteDon't get lulled by this correction is metals. The hard stuff seems to hold up better than the miners. Maybe Gary can speak to that.
Japan earthquake -> potential repatriation of Yen -> negative for $USD? Fits into the grand scheme of impending 3yr cycle low as predicted by Gary?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/yen-reverses-sharply-higher-after-quake-2011-03-11
ddn3f,
ReplyDeleteI was thinking the same thing, about 3 hours ago :) It's come back well since though.
Looking at the SLV MARch weeklies. The 34 seems like a falling off point for OI. I'd bet SLV will happen to close right under 34.
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeletei lives in Japan for 3years on a day like today I feel for m'y friends there. Good luck
My exit plan-silver closes under the 20 MA for 2 days, I'm selling most positions.
ReplyDeleteSilver's trendline now broken, 10 has been violated, 20 rising up around 33.44 on /SI. I think that 20 MA must hold or else this C wave stuff is not correct.
DOC has an alternative scenario on the dollar, which could be the reason why things may not take off for a bit longer.
Five red daily candles on SLV ties the most we had over the past year, including the flash crash period.
ReplyDeletesilver and miners getting creamed again...this is not looking like a daily cycle correction anymore
ReplyDeleteGold 1400 has fought off so many assaults, I wonder if it will give in...If silver cracks 34, Ill add, otherwise, sitting tight.
ReplyDeleteConsidering the developments, USD has been pathetic.
ReplyDeleteI'm hanging on but it sure would have been nice to get off about three days ago and then get back on today. Of course hind sight is 20/20
ReplyDeleteOn the contrary things are looking exactly like a daily cycle correction and people are now starting to make emotional decisions like selling into the bottom of a cycle correction instead of buying.
ReplyDeleteSilver will be down two days. Two days and everyone is starting to think it's the end of the world.
Folks silver could go all the way back to $31 and all it would be is a test of the break out. Once the cycle bottom is in all losses could and probably would be recovered in 2-3 days.
Folks stay focused on the big picture here.
Despite everything that's going on in the world the dollar can't even stay positive. That alone should tell you something.
ReplyDeleteSIL made pin pointed 50% retracement of 20.74 to 29.34
ReplyDeleteBought half a position in ES.
ReplyDeleteFWIW. The gap down volume on the 15min charts (GLD, SLV, AGQ, GPL, SLW, GDX, etc) is much lower than yesterday's.
ReplyDeleteWell maybe we hit bottom for now.
ReplyDeleteAnybody adding here.
ReplyDeleteGDX is showing strength.
ReplyDeleteIf we close down today I have a decent chance at a system buy! I won;t know how likely until later in the day but will post. Nice to get these a little more frequently. Stocks/gold bottom together?
ReplyDeleteNice to see GDX positive already.
Gary
ReplyDeleteThanks for the clarity
The big picture is that even after this downturn I am still up more in 30 days than the previous 365.
ReplyDeleteGary, thanks for the reminder on keeping big picture in mind.
ReplyDeleteSIL bouncing off hard now
ReplyDeleteThink its good that Gary try to get the troops together because I see some panic here..I dont know why actually..A lot of people warned us that a cycle low correction will soon strike against us..
ReplyDeleteGary, Poly and TZ warned us a week ago..This is why so few people will can add when the price go down..Panic..Some people will sell..
A think we are close to the bottom now in silver and gold..Bernanke is pissing his pants and will do anythink to prop the market up.
The dollar will soon fall back again..No reason to try and change the fundamental here..
Think 34,05 was the bottom in silver..Will soon be the swing we are looking for..
Actually I think the dollar will move down and under 77 today..
Take Care!
Thanks for weighing in Gary. Yes I agree with the thesis. And am working the plan. Just tough to weather the downdrafts.
ReplyDeleteThe saying "Bulls climb the stairs and Bears jump out the window" is appropriate here.
GDXJ green
ReplyDeleteI'm not selling here Gary, I attempted to grab some SLW calls there at the open and that sucker ran away so hard I missed it.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking to top off, the 20 MA violation for 2 plus days would concern me and I would consider scaling back then. I don't think that would happen. (Violation==daily close under followed by the next day taking out the prior days low)
I know lines on charts get broken all the time, but... DX backtested broken the 11/10 & 2/11 support trendline yesterday and today. Still below. GC backtested 12/10 & 1/11 broken resistance trendline yesterday. Looking for possible kiss goodbye on both.
ReplyDeleteNo panic here. :)
ReplyDeleteThank you Gary! Picked up some more
ReplyDeletesil, svm
I also missed the oppty to add on a few names, they moved higher immediately. Sitting with what I have for now.
ReplyDeleteJumped in with the rest of the dry powder. Bought some exk may calls at 10. Good luck everyone
ReplyDeleteWow!
ReplyDeleteIf only I knew how deep a correction....
Shalom!
ReplyDeleteActually I dont like the move in gold or silver but if we want to see higher price we must be cool..
Gary told us so many times that this will be hard..Everyone will not be on the boat the whole trip..
Now I understand why..:-)
The dollar is dooomed..We are all doomed..
/Faber
If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it's turn correcting.
ReplyDeleteBill,
ReplyDeleteThanks for posting. Glad you and your family are okay, but so sorry for those who didn't make it.
Are you planning to leave the country any time soon? Good luck to you!
It's strange and ironic that the "Pacific Ring of Fire" has several areas of high density populations. California and Japan come to mind, but there's also the Philippines and Indonesia. The whole area is a time bomb that will go off again and again...
Bought 100 April $38's calls @ $0.44. Lottery play.
ReplyDeleteNice pickup this morning, traderlady!
ReplyDeleteI think you got my stock, so if you'll kindly just journal it over to my accounts and I'll remit funds immediately. :)
Pima
ReplyDeleteThe pic you got is really funny..Lol!
The many faces of Bernanke!
ReplyDeleteYeah but the pic you got Shalom must be from 2006 or something?
ReplyDeleteBefore this mess!? He looks happy.....
Lol
Yeah, nobody was asking questions back then. :)
ReplyDeleteSLW fans.
ReplyDelete34 EMA has been fairly solid support.
SLW 34
Dollar putting in its swing high?
ReplyDeleteI managed to snag some HZU at the low of day ... that's my fill at 29.51 ... unfortunately it was only a partial fill I had to buy the rest at market :)
ReplyDeleteThe dollar can't form a swing today. But it did make a slightly higher high this morning. If it ends the day lower it will be set up to form the swing on Monday with any weakness at all.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised to find my accounts barely in the red today considering how silver is acting. Still, I had some pretty hairy negative marks this morning (daily).
ReplyDeleteBut the bigger picture is even at the worst levels on the open, I was still up roughly 30% on this round over the last couple months.
My expectation was for the dollar rally to last 3-5 days. Today is day 4.
ReplyDeletePrayers to all of those in the path of misfortune.
ReplyDeleteGuess the Yen gets the boost out of this becasue they will have so much rebuilding.
Thank you Gary,
ReplyDeleteI did not know the dollar made a higher high.
Everything really is OK, I'm actually up on the day without even getting to add this morning. :)
ReplyDeleteJust a hunch, but I think we made bottom this morning.
ReplyDeleteNice to see spot gold climbing the wall of worry.
ReplyDeleteNice price action in the Euro from the lows.
ReplyDeleteWe have to pity anybody that got suckered into selling on the open this morning.
ReplyDeleteOne thing the dollar does have going for it is that large specs are long at near record levels in the ausse, loonie, and euro vs the dollar at least for the past couple of years. This usually leads to a severe correction to wash these specs out. The last time spec longs were this long the euro, the euro dropped 14 cents over the next few months.
ReplyDeletePartial fill on buying some AGQ this morning.
ReplyDeleteImagine doing this sh!t alone
ReplyDelete: O
I got good dips in GPL, SLW, SVM this morning, but had to be quick. Trying to add to my SLW calls ran away from me too fast.
ReplyDeleteSIL, finally green
ReplyDeleteEnd of day we will see nice big large green candle sticks
ReplyDeleteThe lows of the day (so far) hit the following retracement percentages (of move up from late Jan low):
ReplyDeleteGDX - 62
GDXJ - 62
SIL - 50
SLW - about 45
SVM - close to 50
SB,
ReplyDeleteI hope you bought some SVM this morning. The low was 12.50!
Ploy,
ReplyDeleteI like your hunch. I felt the same thing (but was too superstitious to say anything about it... oops! )
pima,
ReplyDeleteI know, but unfortunately I missed it. I was on the phone trying to wrap things up before the open but it went 2-3 minutes over. Too late!
I'm still scoping to add though, so thanks for those fib levels. they seem as good a place as any, so will buy weakness if we get it, or pay these prices if things meander at these levels into next week.
Interesting day in the markets. Would love to watch it, but my wife's water just broke and we are getting ready for a baby to come out!
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend all!
Dollar just cracked below 77...good stuff
ReplyDeleteCongrats on the baby Romeo!
ReplyDeleteGood luck!!
steel price going up, cause japan..
ReplyDeleteCongratulations Romeo.
ReplyDeleteHave a nice weekend too!
James
ReplyDeleteI did worse than alone, I did with a broker
I'm surprised I'm alive
Romeo,
ReplyDeleteCongrats!
My wife and I had our first baby one month ago. Best experience in life!
Congrats Romeo, been there done that many times. :)
ReplyDeleteBought 2K GPL, some SLW calls
Romeo,
ReplyDeleteCongrats on the new baby, a new life ahead. That puts things in perspective. Let's us know how things go and best wishes for an easy time.
Bill, our hearts and prayers are with you and yours and all those affected. We look forward to hearing from you again.
ReplyDeleteCongrats Romeo ... I have 3 kids (umm adults!) ... lots of good years ahead of you.
ReplyDeleteBy him/her some silver/gold coins.
By the time their ready for college 1 gold coin outta do it :)
In those iffy moments, I go back and read Gary's postings and know that all is as planned.
ReplyDelete....at ease:
ReplyDeleteIn those iffy moments, I just look at dollar charts and realize I don't have another good option.
Romeo, The best to you,wife and baby:=)
ReplyDeleteCongrats to you and your wife, RB!!
ReplyDeleteHere's to a healthy happy baby!
And congrats to you and your wife too, David K. Enjoy!
ReplyDeleteTo the April call buyers, isn't that timeframe a little too tight?
ReplyDeleteCMT...yeah that too LOL.
ReplyDeleteAGQ on the verge of closing the gap.
ReplyDeleteNice to see the miners responded well.
Dollar dropping like a sack of Sh1t!
ReplyDeleteGary: Thanks. Without your confidence and analysis I'd have cut back some this morning had I been on my own. As a result of your work I didn't sell a share. I am relatively full up at this point so did not add but may add a little on the swing low being set. about 1/2 my net worth in silver is enough for right now, but as I get more room I may push it farther.
ReplyDelete>We have to pity anybody that got suckered into selling on the open this morning
ReplyDeleteScrew 'em. It they want dollars that bad they can have them. Here you go.. thanks for the silver!
Dollar just now bounced off a rising trendline.
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the book. I'm going get into it this weekend.
Yesterday I wasn't sure about buying, today I'm feeling much more positive.
ReplyDeleteSold a lot on Monday, went back to 100% allocation about an hour ago.
The USD is dropping, the PM complex is looking strong, fingers crossed for everyone!
Only 6 weeks into an intermediate cycle and 28 days into a daily cycle are is not the time to be selling. It's the time to be buying hand over fist.
ReplyDeleteThese C-wave finales don't come around very often. The last one was 3 years ago.
One can't let this kind of opportunity pass them by because it may be another three years before the next one.
Folks, do what ever you have to do to shut down your emotions so you can stay focused on the big picture.
Poly ,
ReplyDeleteis today a "deal" to you?
Mr m
ReplyDeleteMaybe they want them to expire and just paying for the insurance
at noon, in europe, i was pushing the BUY button while pissing my pants.
ReplyDeleteand thx to Gary it was a great feeling.
oa9200,
ReplyDeleteI'm really just recycling Gary's info, to fit my style. :) So yes, for me its a deal and I think smart money is buying, not panicking. I've done all the buying I can safely handle.
Gary's post right above this is just perfect. He has been been so spot on down to the daily wiggles, it's not even funny!
Congrats to those who stepped in at the open today. Nice trading.
ReplyDeleteClose em now! If we close now I get a buy. Those of you who have been around a while know how good they have been. I will buy $300k or so worth of SPY's if we get it. I am running out of cash with all this silver clogging up my account (j/k---happy to have it). Look for a post at 3:50 if the Dow is down modestly. An up day or big down day aborts it.
ReplyDeleteThanks to Gary pissing your pants was a great feeling?
ReplyDeleteokie dokie
Well good news is that I slept through the horrible open but bad news is I still wanted to add to my AGQ/HZU. Shall I wait or just throw the rest of my dry powder in now?
ReplyDeleteGary,
ReplyDeleteDo you think the reversal in silver and many of the miners is a sign that perhaps we hit the daily cycle low this morning?
Gary,
ReplyDelete"DG,
Thanks for the book. I'm going get into it this weekend."
What's the name of the book, if I'm not being too nosey?
I bought some SLW March 41's earlier. :O
ReplyDeleteNothing crazy but will see how they do.
ryan,
ReplyDeleteif you missed it i think you'd better wait for gary to call the swing IMO
i have a bit left for that occasion too
Steven,
ReplyDeleteI have no idea. But I do know that gold is now 29 days into it's daily cycle (possibly day 1 if yesterday was the bottom). I know it tagged the 20 DMA yesterday. That combination is enough to go ahead and swing the bat even if it doesn't turn out to be the exact bottom.
Bede,
ReplyDelete"Freedom From Stress"
Not that I have much any more. Most of my stress is limited to how far the fall is going to be if I "come off" rock climbing.
I'm not sure that's the kind of stress that kills though... well unless one hits the ground at terminal velocity :)
Gary,
ReplyDeleteIf today turns out to be the bottom I'm changing my religion to whichever one has you as god!
Oh, and as many burritos you can eat. I'm actually an investor in a burrito company so I'll send you some when the C wave is over and you have a big appetite!
SB said: "If the miners continue to show relative strength today, it validates the idea this is just another typical pullback with each vehicle taking it's turn correcting."
ReplyDeleteThat's my take, too.
We could have got 'em a little cheaper today, but you had to be quick!
The decline in SLW halted on the quick retest of the puke-out lows from Thursday 2/24.
Gary,
ReplyDeleteWas that response about swinging the bat for me? Or should I wait for you to call the swing as Guy suggests?
I thought haveing a wife around would equal haveing a stress reliever
ReplyDeleteJust the opposite
Ryan,
ReplyDeleteYou can wait or swing, it's up to you.
It's late enough in the daily cycle that if that wasn't the low it's very close time wise. What are the odds you will catch the exact bottom even if it's still ahead of us?
Virtually zero.
For me a touch of the 20 DMA yesterday represented value so I bought and I didn't worry if it was the exact bottom. It was close enough.
Decide if you more worried about catching the exact bottom or can you be satisfied with close enough?
Hammy better decide when he's gonna get back in. The G-train is leaving the station! :)
ReplyDeleteWinning..
ReplyDelete"I thought haveing a wife around would equal haveing a stress reliever
ReplyDeleteJust the opposite"
What planet are you from. LMAO.
OK, kids if you want to play dirty. I know a nurse who can tell poop stories all day long, but her son's ceruminosis totally grosses her out.
ReplyDeletethe market is trying hard to shake investors off the silver tree...
ReplyDeletemy feet were dangling this morning but i held on strong! >:O
Added more SLW. Not easy!
ReplyDeleteSwing Low in gold ?
ReplyDelete"The G-train is leaving the station!"
ReplyDeleteI would say she already left!
Hammy the hero tried to trade around the swing and will now chase to rebuild his 44x leveraged position.
This is very much cycle bottom explosion behavior, IMO.
Thanks Gary, I should of just pressed the button when you said swing the bat because look at it leave the station now lol. Well, at least I'm glad I added with you yesterday.
ReplyDeleteDollar just broke that short-term rising trendline noted earlier.
ReplyDeleteBede: Re my book: I have been keeping my professional life (author/public speaker) off the blog. Not sure why to tell you the truth, but am---for now---more comfortable that way so sorry, the book will need to stay a secret. It deals with how to master your thoughts and emotions (very useful for a trader!) and I sent it to Gary as a "thank you." I train Special Forces troops, NASA test pilots, SF Police Academy, Navy, corporate executives, etc.
ReplyDeleteHoly shi$e!
ReplyDeleteI feel like I'm on the tower of terror at Disneyland . . .
(I too slept through all of this morning's tragedies, blessings, and excitement.)
watching silver, after this mornings buy, feels like having good s*x. and that fot only 200$ a year, quite a bargain.
ReplyDeleteI picked up Leal Life by Dr. Phil McGraw for $2 at Odd Lots. Preparing for the 7 Most Challenging Days of Your Life. Anyone read any of DPs books? Let's see?
ReplyDeleteThe most challenging 3 months of my life may have been when the unexpected USD rally stretched this gold c-wave grand finally. What caused it again? Euro nation soverign debt? Lag in production dlayed oil price increases?
"I train Special Forces troops, NASA test pilots, SF Police Academy, Navy, corporate executives, etc."-DG
ReplyDeleteTrain them to do what? You can't just come here and tell part of the story...it ain't fair.
Train 'em to buy silver!
ReplyDeleteNipponese Insurers Payout = Yen Carry Unwind = Stegthening Yen
ReplyDeleteTrains them to control themselves as it's the uncontrollable who are attracted to such heroic professions!
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteI with SB, I want to know too! You're not the one that's training them to explode goats with a stare are you?!
"explode goats with a stare are you?!"
ReplyDeleteROFL
SB: To master the instinctive reactive process. When the lymbic system part of your brain kicks in you do stupid things (like sell in a panic or curse out your mother-in-law). While an automatic response we can train ourselves to overcome the normal flood of chemicals. That's what martial artists train to do. You slap one in the face and their neural response is actually calm---not passive, just not out of control. If they decide to take you out you are dead, but it is a conscious choice not a "I can;t stand it" kind of response. This is a learnable skill and we have trained over 20,000 people the past 15 years.
ReplyDeleteI just hope DG doesn't start getting into Gary's head and "fix" something that isn't broken. :)
ReplyDeleteVery bad news for the guy in that boat....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/world/2011/03/11/vo.whirlpool.earthquake.nhk?hpt=C2
errr, how many times now since the bull market started have you said it's deja vu and the stock market top is in?
ReplyDeleteAaron & Fubsy cooter,
ReplyDeleteGreat posts from yesterday, in the heat of it. Way to stay cool and calm, along with Gary.
Fubsy,
Enough of a bottom for you to "top off"?
Beanie,
ReplyDeleteJust this once. I was actually telling the bears to wait last summer because I wasn't convinced the bull was finished.
NASA has test pilots? Guess they used to land the shuttle.
ReplyDeleteMilitary training Terrorizes you. Gets you ready to think on your feet, etc. Retire?
One of my instructors had a million stories, about all he was good for. When he was fireman, they ran through burning magnesium. They had to have fire hoses spraying on them to keep from incinerating.
What would really scare me is climbing a 60 fool ladder.
Before you get too excited Beano, take a look at the charts. First day up on SOX, and it can only manage .5% while everybody else is scoring left and right with metals.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, peeking in on the first measely day up after a thorough beating doesn't bolster your case, IMO.
At this point I would say the odds are very high gold's daily cycle has bottomed.
ReplyDeleteWe should see a weak bounce in stocks over the next few days as commodities start to spike. But it won't be long before surging inflation causes the stock market to roll over and make another lower low.
beanie,
ReplyDeleteYou are confusing expectations of intermediate tops with a final bull market top. back in Jan I was just expecting an intermediate top.
Now I'm saying there's a good chance the cyclical bull has topped. It seems pretty clear the intermediate cycle has topped. Now we just have to see if the decline breaks below the November low.
If that happens the odds skyrocket that the cyclical bull is finished.
My apologies... I must've been responding to ghost writings all this time.
ReplyDeleteI therefore must get my eyes checked by the fabulous Optometrist.
See ya next week....as the equities market make the bears scream some more.
Beanie,
ReplyDeleteNobody is perfect, but I recall Gary picking big runs in equities, especially the low out of the Summer to new cyclical bull market high's.
But this isn't about the specific calls, your history of trolling these types of sights and going against the grain is legendary. In fact going as far back as 2007/08 you've been hitting the site, guess you're Gary's oldest fan :)
Beanie,
ReplyDeleteIf you would take the time to learn cycles analysis you wouldn't get caught in bear markets.
You would know the seriousness of breaking below the Feb. 24th low.
Maybe you should take the blinders off so you can keep your profits this time.
Guys, Beenie is right. I'm on his team, forget this ridiculous fear trade. The global economy is poised for an explosion of growth. We will see DOW 20K within 3 months. Tech stocks will be bought by homeless people and your great grandmothers. Doom and gloomers will be trying to sell their worthless silver to any and all takers under 5 bucks a share.
ReplyDeleteGB, I don't see your book in digital reader format. Will it be?
ReplyDeleteVery nice action today. Wish I would have added more:)
ReplyDeletewe'll be buying tech stocks when they are bottomed out with our gold winnings.
ReplyDeleteDG,
ReplyDeleteAre you familiar with the work of Ari Kiev? His book Masterring Trading Stress was an excellent read for me. Do you train traders as well?
DG, I'm fascinated myself and want to know more:)!
ReplyDeleteDG, Im interested. Is there a way to order your book on the kindle/amazon?
ReplyDeleteWinnie, Beanie, and Cecil?
ReplyDeleteTo save you the cost and agony of a black belt, I just meditate. Instead of blowing up at my in-laws, I pretend I am putting a run to their head and pulling the trigger; then of cource, there are consequences. Not worth it.
Waht are all the triggers/signs we're waiting for here?
ReplyDeletePoly clown - stop bashing Hammy - as Hammies NAV is at new all time highs - despite gold and silver and crude still ways of their highs.
ReplyDeleteUp over 743% as of now since October 2010, when I started recording my NAV.
Besides being in physical since almost a decade. Still own phyisical silver I bought below $7.
So do you think i care a second about your (or others) continued hatred here?
BTW i report my NAV almost each day in my blog - do you - or the other bashers here???
Call me gloating ... call me this, call me that ... i report facts, I report sometimes when i exit, or when i reenter ... do you think I care what you think about me?
Trading is not about bashing other poeple - but about trading and learning from those who have a proven record in being profitable.
Either shortterm or mediumterm or longterm.
Trading is about making money - and having ones eyes on the charts.
Those which have time to bash others - are usually worthless crap just filling space.
BTW I like what Gary offers in his protected area - but the hatred presented in this blog - is beyond what I have seen before.
Just the Yahoo boards are worse.
And calling Kitco a site with penny dealers just confirms that thsi site is just about bashing and a few glory insiders.
Same as was with gold-eagle.
That board is dead as of now.
Due to the folks posting here - intolerant like here.
Nuf said - of again.
Mr. M, basically silver still below $40 to make it simple.
ReplyDeleteAnd be sure I won't come back here again.
ReplyDeleteJust that this had to be said.
Hamster, I'd like to learn more about how you trade.
ReplyDeleteVeronica:
ReplyDeleteIs there any way you can change your name back to vuvvy? I keep picturing you sitting there infront of your computer in drag. NTTAWWT... And now that everyone is using pics of Bernanke the image in my mind has morphed into one of Ben in drag.
:)