We have moved!

Commenting

Please visit our new blog at: http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com to read the latest posts and to comment.

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

STOPS

Potential stops have been posted to the website.

224 comments:

  1. Gap up Tuesday. Ready to ride the G-train

    ReplyDelete
  2. I think I just entered the timing band to mess my shorts. Come on snake eyes! Err... wait.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Any higher on gold here and we break the last main resistance line from this consolidation zone.

    ReplyDelete
  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Gold approaching the 200dma, SPX the 150dma.

    ReplyDelete
  6. WW:

    For your moving averages; i.e., 200sma.... are you using NY spot gold or the active COMEX futures contract; i.e., Feb gold?

    Feb gold is already a smidge over $1,617 while NY spot is hanging around $1,616.

    ReplyDelete
  7. All Demark DAILY BUY Setups for the major indices that I mentioned yesterday are cancelled with the rally today. GLD BUY because it recorded the other day is still active until tomorrow. GDXJ recorded an imperfect 9 BUY yesterday, good thru Friday. If you remember, we had a whole bunch of SELL Setups on the major indices a few weeks ago that were also cancelled, but we still rolled over anyway.
    BAC BUY setup looks like it might also be cancelled, but it is recording a DAILY Sequential 13 today - good for 12 days - this rally might have legs!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Unknown,

    Im using Feb contract. 200dma is at $1621.

    ReplyDelete
  9. If gold and the market are to reverse its going to be now, if not they will pop above the 200dma and 150dma like they are jumping out of birthday cakes.

    ReplyDelete
  10. WW:

    Hmmmm. Stockcharts shows the 200sma at $1,617.24 and we're above that.

    Not sure it matters right now. This move looks quite powerful and should take us well above the 200sma.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Unknown,

    Your looking at the spot price, im looking at the Feb futures contract.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Gold and the SPX just basically kissed the 200dma and 150dma and backed off.

    ReplyDelete
  13. Now if the market and gold are to continue strong today the pullback off the 150dma and the 200dma will be just that, the only decent pullback we get today as both break out and chug higher into the close, or the daily highs are put in.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Thanks WW, already done. Would have missed this pop, much thanks. My chart says 1620 needs to break, then maybe 1665?

    ReplyDelete
  15. Riley,

    The 200dma is at $1621 and gold just smacked its head on it, above the 200dma we have the 175dma with the 10dma slanted down and crossing over it at around the $1650 handle, if that dont give gold a hard time the 150dma is at $1670.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Riley,

    When gold breaks clean above the 200dma, move your stop up to the 220dma currently at $1601.40, then watch those levels of resistance I mentioned in the previous post. Look to take profits 8-10 days into this Daily cycle, which ever level of resistance falls within the timing band. If gold reverses sooner than expected your stop is in place already.

    ReplyDelete
  17. #Bloomberg: 'Silver and gold are in clear divergence and it is a serious sign of a market reversal'- R. Prehter

    ReplyDelete
  18. Since the last low silver is up about 5%
    Gold about 4%

    Where's the divergence?

    ReplyDelete
  19. He was refering to this years movements that silver made historic top im May and failed to do follow Gold in September. And that's from EW institute

    ReplyDelete
  20. Ahh yes ... YTD silver is actually flat maybe even down a little this year.

    ReplyDelete
  21. WW

    Said
    " Look to take profits 8-10 days into this Daily cycle"

    I don't want to take any profits till 2012. I don't want to mail anymore $$ to those looser in Washington.

    ReplyDelete
  22. '"When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get rich more easily by graft than by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you. . . you may know that your society is doomed." Ayn Rand - Atlas Shrugged

    ReplyDelete
  23. SF,

    Lol..I hear you, but you dont want to give back profits either if gold tops out early in this cycle and your long futures.

    ReplyDelete
  24. >If gold and the market are to reverse its going to be now, if not they will pop above the 200dma and 150dma like they are jumping out of birthday cakes.

    Gold is stopping (again) at the upper trendline I mentioned earlier. This is the 5th time and it clearly had the chance to break above it today. (It is now later in the day when volume dries up for gold - it works different than stocks. So a breakout today is now very unlikely).

    I have to say that I'm starting to get the feeling this is a bear flag on gold. It has a very defined channel at this point with numerous new slight highs repeatedly - all unable to gather any followthrough buying.

    I think we need to be VERY careful here. I really expect this rally to break through and show some results and now I'm not liking the vibe.

    ReplyDelete
  25. How things look going into the 4pm close might help clear the picture.

    ReplyDelete
  26. NL is hot on the huge H&S bottom on the dollar index. backtest complete.

    ReplyDelete
  27. TZ,

    You need to be more patient. Gold is struggling , but so would anything else that just got thrown in a hole. Gold backed off the 200dma today, it's to be expected.

    ReplyDelete
  28. TZ,

    Let me be clear..when I said

    "If gold and the market are to reverse its going to be now, if not they will pop above the 200dma and 150dma like they are jumping out of birthday cakes."

    When I said "reverse now" I meant a pull back off the 200dma, thats exactly what we seen. Now gold is consolidating under the 200dma, which is normal after a pullback off an SMA, and the SPX is holding above the 150dma after it popped out of it.

    ReplyDelete
  29. ZN Daily SELL Setup in DeMark land is paying dividends today - my small TBT position is up 5% today. Seems like when treasuries selloff, they do for a few days. The 50-day is down at 117.54 in TLT land.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I'm just also saying we have a perfect bearish flag the last 3 days, correct or not.

    I'm still long 1x, but I've gotten hurt in the past by not looking both ways on a trade.

    I would also suggest that the mindset of (at least me) and others I know who are eagerly looking up, buying the slight breakouts higher and then seeing it drop back down again - thus forming the flag - is the exact psychology which accompanies such a pattern. So not only is it on the chart, but I'm following and feeling it in my head.

    7/20/10 is a bear flag that looked like now and then plunged lower to a final low.

    conversely, 2/9/10 is a intermediate low which also formed a bear flag, but kept climbing.

    Those two examples for anybody who wants to study a bit. Just my thoughts as we try to figure out what is going on.

    There are a few people including poly that can see and argue for another cycle lower. I'm just making a case and evaluating 'what if I am wrong' as prudent measure.

    ReplyDelete
  31. TZ,

    I hear you, I, as Poly, have been talking about this daily cycle possibly failing also, but its highly unlikely it will roll over in 4 days, and I think Poly would agree with that.

    ReplyDelete
  32. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Yeah, I'm just feeling the same, TZ.
    I know it would mean Gold's gonna grind higer (wall of worry, we all know that) but I simply couldn't resist this fear and lightened my positions to 0.5x (from 0.8x).
    Well, at least I'm gonna sleep a bit better. So anyway it's worth it for me.
    On a breakout I may be just adding again, depending on price action dynamics.

    ReplyDelete
  34. My point is, I'm gonna feel much more comfortable above the 200-day...
    And once above it, on any retest that holds (if we ever get one, of course) I'm gonna go agressively long. That's my short term plan.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Poly, PC, DG, TZ et al,

    I have a question about trade triggers. I lost a good position a few days ago because I used the “Last” operator as the trigger and the “trade” that caused the trigger to fire was a trade on the MM’s book that he had leftover and used to fill a current order. It was way off the current bid/ask spread. TZ warned me, but now that I’ve learned the hard way, I won’t make that mistake again. This time I’m using the “Ask” operator:

    “If the ask of GDX is less than or equal to 51.1
    Sell 300 GDX at market.”

    Is this how you set your triggers? If not, what do you differently?
    I trade with TDAmeritrade.

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete
  36. I think this is the perfect reason why you can't look at chart patterns in isolation. If sentiment were not as depressed as it is then the result could be a bear flag, but I have to agree with Gary that this chart looks like an intermediate bottom, when taking sentiment into account. Also its funny how GLD vs /GC paint a much different picture on their daily charts. GLD (which you can think of as a US market only /GC) made a lower low than 9/26 and to me it currently looks like a swing low on a stair-step down move has formed.It definitely looks bullish in the short/intermediate term.

    ReplyDelete
  37. TZ,

    You compared 7/20/10 to the last three days action... gold was on its way down into an intermediate cycle low on 7/20/10 that finally bottomed right on the 150dma, as did every intermediate cycle low of this entire c-wave prior to the july ICL. I dont think its a good idea to compare the move out of a daily and possibly an intermediate cycle low to a move down into an ICL.

    ReplyDelete
  38. TZ,

    Another thing, I have pointed this out many times in real time during intermediate cycle declines (it enabled me to call the exact bottom in july)...

    on the way down into an ICL gold pauses and crawls the 75dma, then drops to the 100dma and crawls it, then drops to the final ICL on the 150dma. If you look at the IC decline during 7/20/10 with a 100dma applied you'll see that gold was in fact crawling the 100 (which you labeled a bear flag).

    ReplyDelete
  39. Coolkevs,

    coolkevs said...
    All Demark DAILY BUY Setups for the major indices that I mentioned yesterday are cancelled with the rally today. GLD BUY because it recorded the other day is still active until tomorrow. GDXJ recorded an imperfect 9 BUY yesterday, good thru Friday. If you remember, we had a whole bunch of SELL Setups on the major indices a few weeks ago that were also cancelled, but we still rolled over anyway.
    BAC BUY setup looks like it might also be cancelled, but it is recording a DAILY Sequential 13 today - good for 12 days - this rally might have legs!

    December 20, 2011 8:20 AM

    I've been trying to learn more about how to trade TD indicators since you started posting about them. The TD Sequential is free on TOS and I like it. What does "good thru Friday" and "good for 12 days" mean in your post? I've found definitions but not really how best to use or trading rules for the Sequential. Do you have access to other TD indicators you like and can share? In a recent interview I heard TD say his Combo was part of his advanced TA package and related to the Sequential. Can you tell me anything about sourcing the Combo or if it's worth getting? If you'd prefer to take this off-line, let's share e-mails. Best, CM

    ReplyDelete
  40. Hi Lee Fou,

    Yes that sounds right. Or you could use the trade price for such a liquid stock.

    Although I don't see at the market, i use a tight limit price that will hit, but won't get screwed.

    ReplyDelete
  41. Poly, What if a gap down happens overnight? Wouldn't the trigger trade still be vulnerable to a bigger loss?

    What do you mean, "use a tight limit price that will hit, but won't get screwed."

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  42. Oil trading has been halted by the CME ...weird.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Mr contrarian Dennis Gartman has suggested buying gold stocks.


    http://bullmarketthinking.com/dennis-gartman-people-may-move-away-from-gold-futures-towards-something-else-that-might-be-gold-stocks/

    ReplyDelete
  44. SF--

    Are you serious?!!! What a complete Hack! Yeah...ummm...these stocks are going up so I think you should buy them now.....

    Too comical...

    ReplyDelete
  45. Just for fun- arsenal toolbox for investing:


    1) Rational tools: technical analysis, fundamentals, cycles, sentiment, seasonality, Opex timing, etc etc


    2) "Irrational" tools: psychic phenomena.


    This guy has had some major hits (when he predicted the Japan 2011 tsunami almost to the day) as well as misses (he admits them).


    Interesting that he predicts a drop for the euro (i.e. $ up) in 2012...


    http://blairrobertson.com/blog/


    "I predict that the Euro will drop below $1.25US before the end of May"

    ReplyDelete
  46. Guys,

    I have a serious question I would appreciate if I could get some quick input on.

    I'm thinking of grabbing some 50 ounce bars from First Majestic at 32.50/oz tonight.

    Are there any big issues I need to be aware of other than the storage issues?

    Do I need to pay sales taxes, fed taxes, taxes of any kind? I remember there being commentary that you should buy coins because of some tax advantage.

    Would I have a really big problem down the road (years) selling them? How would you sell a 50 oz bar?

    many thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  47. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  48. 50 oz. Bars are cheap (i.e. Low premium) but are not very liquid. I would stick with 1 oz rounds or 'junk' silver to be on the safer side.

    ReplyDelete
  49. RJ,

    I bought Silver Bars/coins (couple 1KG bars and many coins) from First Majestic in 2009, and I remember there was no tax. However, I had to pay some shipping plus insurance fees though. Btw, it took about 1 month before I got my silver Bars from First Majestic.

    The only issue is when you try to sell these silver bars/coins from First Majestic to some dealers, you have to sell at a discount (compared to American Silver Eagle coins that might be able to sell at a premium).....

    ReplyDelete
  50. Phil,

    First Majestic has the 1 oz rounds for the same price per ounce, same premium.

    KHC,

    Did you have to sell below spot? Right now they are priced $3 above spot per ounce.

    ReplyDelete
  51. RJ,

    My suggestion is that it's okay to buy Silver Bars/Coins from First Majestic only IF you want to hold those silver bars/coins until the final bubble phase (say Silver at $150/ounce). By that time, I believe that any silver bars/coins can be sold at a premium instead of discounts.

    If you just want to trade Silver short-term, then I would suggest you just buy SLV or PSLV shares. Trading physicals short-term is just wasting money because you will be buying at a premium but selling back at a discount....

    ReplyDelete
  52. RJ,

    Those dealers, when buying back Non-American Silver Eagle bars/coins, buy back your silver bars/coins a couple dollars BELOW spot price.

    So you will be paying a premium to buy the Silver bars while selling at a discount back to the dealers.

    ReplyDelete
  53. I really want to go long term but you guys are kind of talking me out of it now, at least the FM items.

    On a different note, what happens after the bubble phase. So what if silver hits 150 at the peak in a few years? What will the price be in 2020, 2040, etc?

    ReplyDelete
  54. I think we all should leave some nicknames for Gary regarding his skills at picking bottoms because he is, "The Bottom King!"

    ReplyDelete
  55. RJ,

    My personal experience is that I bought Silver Bars/Coins from First Majestic at $17.50/ounce (the premium was like $0.75) when spot price was around $16.75. I sold those bars at $39/ounce when Silver spot price was at $41 (during that 4-day silver crash in May).

    So I spent $0.75 on premium while taking discounts of $2.00 when selling back. This costs me $2.75 per ounce.

    So I swear that I will just stick to SLV or PSLV shares for rest of this bull market as I hate to play this huge spread game...

    Anyway, now I simply hold SLV shares.

    ReplyDelete
  56. RJ
    gary did a report on 10 bubbles. they all pop and dont come back for 20 to 30 years

    ReplyDelete
  57. RJ,

    Depending on how long you are going to hold. My definition of long-term is 2+ years. LOL

    You can definitely buy Silver from FM, but you just need to make sure that you sell at the final bubble phase. (Not sure if this counts as "long-term"? )

    After the final bubble phase is over, Silver will CRASH to unbelievable low price. For example, Silver hit $50 in 1980 and dropped to $9 and below for 20 years.....

    I will definitely dump all my Silver (shares) at the final bubble phase instead of holding them past that phase.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Gold reclaimed the 200th MA. Nice and smooth.

    ReplyDelete
  59. We're three days into a bounce ----and all the gold arrogance is already back --------------- my opinion ---- they're setting up the market for a BIG FALL with this attitude. THATS the odds when they go back to bullish this fast ----- three days and they are throwing mud at the bears. RARE DOES THAT SIGNAL A LOW of significance

    ReplyDelete
  60. Hey Robert, get used to it!

    ReplyDelete
  61. need a new pair of trousers.
    hate it when this happens while i'm just checking in...

    ReplyDelete
  62. Gold just got dropped right back down to the 200 dma. 1621.

    ReplyDelete
  63. Just bought back my short DX - 1.5 points in 3 days...thanks Gary for your call

    ReplyDelete
  64. $USD is trying to find support on its 20ma (Bollinger Band midline).

    ReplyDelete
  65. Did Treasuries just reversed - TBT chart ?

    If they did for sure money will start pouring into the PM

    ReplyDelete
  66. And dropped further down... what the heck is going on?

    ReplyDelete
  67. At ease,

    I was hoping that you could help me understand! I was having lunch and the markets tanked!

    ReplyDelete
  68. Maybe there is a margin increase is comming. Market always gets wind a day or so before.

    Just a guess.

    ReplyDelete
  69. risk assets did a u-turn on this news....

    "The European Central Bank said it had injected a record 489.19 billion euros ($641 billion) into eurozone banks via its first-ever three-year refinancing operation"

    which was more printing than the markets expected is the general jist of it i think

    ReplyDelete
  70. Breakout up and out of the bear flag overnight. Breakdown back into flag this morning. The breakout now looks like a fake.

    If we continue lower here to below about 1605 then this flag will start to look legit and look out below.

    ReplyDelete
  71. Sophia, sorry, have no idea. I just hope it doesn't hit miners.

    ReplyDelete
  72. Pretty ugly. Below 1611 is another waterfall.

    ReplyDelete
  73. Dont you guys who are wondering what is going on have real time charting services? Or are you just using google or yahoo or whatever?

    ReplyDelete
  74. TZ, couldn't take it at 1610, got out.

    ReplyDelete
  75. Markets often ride the upper Bollinger Band, then fall to test the Bollinger Band midline (20ma). If the 20ma of $USD holds, short term traders are screwed. But if price falls below the 20ma, markets often fall all the way to the lower Bollinger Band. We'll just have to wait and see.

    ReplyDelete
  76. This thing felt like a bear flag from the getgo, we should of bounced hard after the waterfall decline but instead we just consolidated in a range.

    ReplyDelete
  77. looking at the chart the dollar backtested its H&S bottom NL. Penetrated and reversed off the neckline. EURUSD also backtested.

    ReplyDelete
  78. Bought more gold futures. We should bounce here if we are going to hold I think.

    ReplyDelete
  79. TZ,

    I am usually on a platform, but away this week, so was hoping for a nice trending market....

    ReplyDelete
  80. TZ, you think its safe to get back in the water?

    ReplyDelete
  81. Selling some DX...the bonds didnt move on this one....

    ReplyDelete
  82. "couldn't take it at 1610, got out"
    the price is $5 from where it was yesterday at 5pm.

    ReplyDelete
  83. Razvan, yeah, I know, but road it up all night and back down this morning, so jumped out before TZs 1605.

    ReplyDelete
  84. I was mentioning charting cause you can draw the bear flag I was discussing yesterday.

    If so you see we popped above it overnight and are now back inside - looks like a fakeout at this point.

    Dollar strong again and this flag (and that we broke higher but are not back inside) should raise caution. There could be a good chance now that the flag is real and we head lower to break the bottom and then it will likely get unhappy.

    I just added and bought here cause I often buy quick drops to see if they hold and this one just met my criteria. I don't know I would call things 'safe', but if we are going to continue going up this might be a reasonable point to hold here so I'm taking a shot at a buy (small stop).

    ReplyDelete
  85. Raz,

    Yes, the price is $5 away, but contrary to gary's comments many other people believe charts mean something. There was some relatively significant chart action overnight. I think we have also broken the 200dma again, but I will defer to WW on the moving average stuff.

    These comments I'm making (and WW usually) are NOT per the "Gary SMT System" so you guys are at your own risk if you start jumping the gun or panicing out of stuff before gary make's his moves. I'm doing my own stuff here (which I combine with gary's calls).

    ReplyDelete
  86. Guys I see nothing wrong here, this is probably the 830am nonsense that Poly talks about.

    ReplyDelete
  87. I'm now 3x with my addition and the bounce is folowing through. We want to see this resume going up clearly.

    ReplyDelete
  88. Dollar looks bullish to me. IH&S

    http://www.screencast.com/t/sxy8nPDsKTyl

    ReplyDelete
  89. It's probably too early for the dollar to have bottomed.

    ReplyDelete
  90. Agreed Gary, a 15 days cycle in the USDX is highly unlikely...still holding my shorts on the USDX.

    ReplyDelete
  91. Yes, agree with Gary and Aaron...selling back 0.60 higher than where I took profit this morning on DX

    ReplyDelete
  92. i wouldnt read too much into the price action last night. It is not like we had a $200 move up in price and looking for a blow off top.

    ReplyDelete
  93. Bounce is holding and now gold looks to have a small reverse H&S pattern which would take us back up.

    Dollar weakening again too.

    Good.

    ReplyDelete
  94. My stop is near the low 30 min ago in gold and I also sold enough of my futures on this bounce to break even if we continue down.

    I now have *zero* risk in this trade and I am NOT sure the low holds. It just seems like a reasonable bet, but clearly it isnt a hard bet to make with a small stop.

    Just a word of caution to people who may be 'buying back' based on my comments. I'm not one to stay around or take a big loss on trades.

    ReplyDelete
  95. FWIW, the price action overnight is likely not that significant. Gold is not thinking for itself, so to speak.

    All risk assets are following each other, - markets are very thin & the algos are probably doing the work. If you pull up a minute-by-minute chart of Gold & compare with the EUR/USD chart, they are more or less the same. The overnight pop in the Euro dragged everything up with it. Euro got smacked by resistance at 1.32 and dropped straight back down, bringing everything else with it. Range-trading likely for rest of the week. My 2 cents anyway!

    ReplyDelete
  96. I hear you TZ, that's why I got out, in case we went lower. Watching closely,

    ReplyDelete
  97. AT EASE,

    Just remember that gary is long, not leveraged, patient, and still positive on the situation.

    From a risk adjusted point of view he is hard to beat. I'm doing a different thing here (but his advice helps me adjust my trades one way or the other.)

    ReplyDelete
  98. TZ, I am talking about mini gold futures, nothing else.

    ReplyDelete
  99. $GOLD riding the 13 ma on the 5 min at the moment.

    ReplyDelete
  100. I think we're simply setting a daily cycle trendline here on gold. I'm buying this aggressively.

    ReplyDelete
  101. Look on the positive. It will keep sentiment in check while gold climbs the wall of worry.

    And will keep posters (trolls) like Brutless coming back for more punishment.

    ReplyDelete
  102. Very doubtful to me that SPX would reverse significantly so soon after such a magnificent white candle.

    ReplyDelete
  103. There is no Gold moving into a bubble phase yet. You are all too early and hopefully not using tight stops coz you will all be stopped out. Gold will correct for a couple of more months at least.

    After 750 days above the 200 day MA, Gold is not going to just trade 3 days below it and that's that. We are still going lower and until we shake out you perma-bullish lot, Gold bubble phase will not be here.

    ReplyDelete
  104. TZ, buddy, you gotta set looser stops ;)

    ReplyDelete
  105. As I mentioned a couple days ago, the 200dma shouldn't be a problem this early in the cycle, and we seen that last night when gold ripped right through it as if it weren't there.

    ReplyDelete
  106. WW what you think? I placed hard stop last night at 1631 and woke up filled.

    ReplyDelete
  107. How high does gold have to go before the bears agree that the correction was over?

    ReplyDelete
  108. Movax2,

    I want to see that moment and sell to them :)

    ReplyDelete
  109. Riley,

    I believe last night was a sell the news event, although I have my reservations about whether or not this daily cycle will fail or not, I dont think its ready to rollover yet. The stock market would have to sell off hard, and im not convinced that that's about to happen. Anything could happen, we all know that...lets see how things go, good to hear you locked in profits at $1631.

    ReplyDelete
  110. I saw that the dollar index is going up again. Perhaps there won't be a Santa Clause rally.

    Interestingly, the VIX is also down with the stock market down.

    ReplyDelete
  111. Does anyone else use the 233 hourly SMA as a substitute for the 10 DMA? I find it works really well for GC. That's precisely where we got turned back last night.

    ReplyDelete
  112. Gary-
    Any thoughts on the fact that SPX intermediate cycle is 11 weeks deep and at this point is extremely left translated, topping in only 3 weeks? Are we running out of time for the market to break the Oct highs? Isn't this the transformation that is necessary to pull bears back into the long side and throw the towel in on short bets? thanks

    ReplyDelete
  113. SLV has a gap at the open from two days ago. So we may have to experience one more draw down.

    ReplyDelete
  114. Most of you know that Gary's big on Biotech. Here's an article about Biotech that you may find interesting:

    http://www.johnmauldin.com/outsidethebox/catastrophic-success/

    Good trading,
    Le Fou

    ReplyDelete
  115. What I like is that silly US Tbond going doing no matter where is the S&P..about time!!

    ReplyDelete
  116. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  117. Although tempting, I'm gonna stick to my plan and not buy this gold pullback until we get decisively above the 200-day and make a backtest that holds.
    Close, but not quite there yet. Till then it's a no-trade for me.

    ReplyDelete
  118. Long Euro ETF
    CurrencyShares Euro Trust FXE
    WisdomTree Dreyfus Euro EU
    iPath EUR/USD Exchange Rate ETN ERO



    Double Long Euro ETF
    Ultra Euro ProShares ULE
    Market Vectors Double Long Euro ETN URR



    Short Euro ETF
    Market Vectors Double Short Euro ETN DRR
    UltraShort Euro ProShares EUO

    ReplyDelete
  119. 523 EuroZone banks borrowed a huge 489 billion euros ($638 billion) at the central bank’s first offering of three-year cash

    ReplyDelete
  120. Oa2000,

    Wouldn't do the same if that money was offered to you at 1% rather than the 2-4 % you could get from your peers?

    ReplyDelete
  121. I can tell you than there is no recession in France...those who are not in the sun celebrating xmas are on the slopes where there is a record of snow falls and hotel occupancy!

    ReplyDelete
  122. sophia said...
    I can tell you than there is no recession in France...those who are not in the sun celebrating xmas are on the slopes where there is a record of snow falls and hotel occupancy!"

    Sophia,

    STock market is not economy...

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EWQ&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75604191621

    ReplyDelete
  123. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  124. Getting long Dax here...nothing changed from this morning 10.15 am London

    ReplyDelete
  125. DeMark (using the poor man's thinkorswim Sequential study):
    Treasury trade a la ZN futures continues to work even on a down day in the market - 2 more days left. Kevin Depew on his twitter feed actually shows a TLT DAILY TD Sequential 13 SELL a couple of days ago, confirmed by a bearish price flip today - I just don't see it on thinkorswim...sigh
    The VIX is showing a perfected DAILY BUY Setup today - will Santa's sleigh get upended??
    A few stocks that are selling off today were showing DAILY BUY Setup's though - ORCL, VMW, ZAGG, RHT - perhaps some kind-of a bounce in tech land might be forthcoming after today's nastiness!

    Tomorrow is the last day of the DAILY BUY setup upside reaction in GC gold futures. 1616.60 could be qualified on the downside if lower open tomorrow, so we shall see.

    Interesting - KBH reported today - according to Depew, it has confirmed a MONTHLY BUY signal that recorded in July (I show this on my thinkorswim as well), so it should be a strong year for the homebuilders believe it or not!

    ReplyDelete
  126. Pretty significant SoS numbers on SPY and GLD.

    ReplyDelete
  127. What's up with the big Sos in spy today?

    ReplyDelete
  128. Gregory M

    We should find out in a few days.

    ReplyDelete
  129. Gold bounced right off the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the swing high at 1767.10 to the swing low at 1565.70. The retracement level is at 1642.60. The high of the session was 1643.70.

    ReplyDelete
  130. End of day thoughts on gold.

    Broke above bearish flag pattern last night, sucked in some buyers, then crashed back down through it today on large volume spikes (blowing out stop levels). Looks like a fakeout at this point.

    Not the best thing to see, but not clearly broken at this point.
    Still...the odds of gold going down from here have now increased in my view. I dare say many other people are eyeing the door as well.

    Going below 1605 takes us out of the flag to the downside. Going below 1590 approx starts putting in lower lows and probably triggers a bunch of stops.

    Gary doesn't so much look at charts or patterns (unless he wants to :-) but he has mentioned flags before so I think there is some relevance.

    I bought the pullback today, but it didn't follow through and stopped me out even.

    Still 1x and looking for danger signs (going up will take care of itself). Will see what gary says tonight also.

    ReplyDelete
  131. I will likely buy the 1590 area since I think that will hold (if only for a bounce). Should that fail I won't have much confidence left.

    "By the book" would mean waiting until the 1562 low is breeched, but:

    A) I don't want the reduction of profits to that point.

    B) Due to the strong nature of the intermediate decline and expected strength of a rebound *IF* we have indeed bottomed I do not believe that we should return back down to anywhere NEAR the 1562 low. If we start heading for that zone at this point I will perceive a problem well before we get there.

    In other words this low or bounce should not be a case of "we will retest it to within a few bucks and then resume higher". This thing should be climbing well up and away from this low - period.
    (I could be wrong, as always).

    ReplyDelete
  132. I'm with you on that, TZ.
    Still holding my 0.5x but on the lookout for trouble signs, lol.

    Hope it's just another brick in the wall of worry though...

    ReplyDelete
  133. Well, in hindsight, I should've placed a hard stop at 1640 as it was an obvious fib-target and a pivot also, but hell I hate using those damn stops...
    Sometimes they have their place though.

    ReplyDelete
  134. Yeah they work great if one has a working crystal ball :)

    ReplyDelete
  135. Adding to the party I see tonight that Poly was likewise saying he was considering raising stops above the low at 1562 just like I have already done (he didn't yet).

    The comment was "..I believe price does not belong anywhere near those levels now [the gold 1562 low].." (Hope I can quote you Poly)

    I agree. If we get there and break down anybody with a stop at that point is likely going to get some pretty bad slippage (and also give up unnecessary gains since we really shouldn't come close at this point.)

    We will see what happens as always.

    ReplyDelete
  136. My stop isn't much above the low (yet) but it isn't *AT* the low cause I don't want to get steamrolled by a few thousand contracts getting dumped on trading screens across the world.

    (My comments are for futures. GDX people have slightly different concerns and situation. And remember I'm only hypthesizing here. All may be well.)

    ReplyDelete
  137. WW, are you long, if not what are you seeing?

    ReplyDelete
  138. If gold breaks below the 220dma support (which offered hard resistance on the way up) it will most likely test and possibly find support on the 250dma (currently $1574)and Friday's low.

    ReplyDelete
  139. The London Trader says the bottom is in:

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/12/20_London_Trader_-_We_are_Witnessing_a_Historic_Bottom_in_Gold.html

    ReplyDelete
  140. My gold futures system buy still has no stop, and my US $ system went to a sell.

    ReplyDelete
  141. Based on this morning's action (gold was breaking out and then stopped short again by "news") I think your system is right V. If not, I'm really starting to lose faith in the paper market and will likely convert to physical soon and exit 'the game' as it has become extremely tiresome.....and we all know the ultimate outcome.

    ReplyDelete
  142. If the recent bottom wasn't historic, it is close enough to the historic bottoms of the past ten years - the 275 and 300dma. As I have always said, I doubt we will see gold dip below the 300dma.

    ReplyDelete
  143. yes, thank you WW. Your voice is a lighthouse in the fog

    ReplyDelete
  144. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  145. coolkevs, you refer to using a form of Demark system with Think-or-Swim software. I am using TOS, and although I find an indicator called "Demarker Indicator" within the charting studies, I don't find any form of Demark countdown or similar study. Do you count manually? His systems are not available without an expensive charting system that I am aware of. Tom Demark was on Bloomberg about ten days ago and stated the market was going to peak around today.

    ReplyDelete
  146. The 200dma is about to cross below the SPX head and shoulders neckline, I will begin building my SPX short position again soon, I believe we may see a reversal off the neckline currently around 1257.

    ReplyDelete
  147. Faber seems to have a pretty good handle on this mess. The most recent porter stansberry letter is also worth a read....basically says what needs to be said but doesn't matter since no one will do anything about it!!

    ReplyDelete
  148. FYI, Poly is getting close to shorting SPY.

    If you don't know, he has his own little free report he puts out once in awhile, it's pretty cool. You can shoot him an email and get on his list: tradepoly@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  149. WW,

    How many moving averages do you follow?

    I've seen you mention the 75,100, 150,220 and 300 in the last day or so.

    How do you decide which dma is most important at any given time?

    ReplyDelete
  150. Gotta,

    It depends where we are at in the cycles.

    ReplyDelete
  151. Hmmmm....looks like I'll be able to pick up more
    Physical and RGLD shares on the cheap tomorrow....

    ReplyDelete
  152. Looking at a gold weekly, I can see gold pulling back to the historical support of the 75wma if this daily cycle topped today in an extremely left translated manner. Currently at $1493.

    ReplyDelete
  153. Lately I've been getting this weird feeling that I would be better off daytrading amzn or aapl or cmg or goog or sbux etc....I think my weird feeling is right----for the next couple of months at least

    ReplyDelete
  154. Gold found support right on the 50 week moving average this week.

    ReplyDelete
  155. WW I was looking at 1461-67 worst case scenario, not sure if will even attempt short of gold if breaks 1600. Looking more into shorting e-mini in next 5 days. Like what Poly sees.

    ReplyDelete
  156. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  157. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  158. DG,

    If you are out there ...

    THANK YOU for posting your "BUY" signal in the subs forum on Monday!

    I bought some SSO at the close on Monday and sold it today for a quick $1K profit (+5%) ... don't want to let profits slip away in this market!

    ReplyDelete
  159. Silverhound,

    After you hear from JHN can you please drop me an email. Thanks D :)

    ReplyDelete
  160. Every D-wave has presented a tagging or break of the 0 line of the True Strength Index and a bottoming of my 14,3 stochastics on a weekly chart, we are not there yet.

    ReplyDelete
  161. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  162. The 10 year treasury yield is due for a rally on the weekly chart IMO. Just bounced off the lower BB this week and the bands are narrowing in dramatically on the weekly chart. Given where the MACD is, I would be surprised if it broke down from here. Pretty decent positive divergence. In any event something dramatic is going to happen within the next couple of weeks IMO.

    The ten year yield inflection points are very important for PMs, especially silver, and even more so for mining stocks.

    ReplyDelete
  163. WW,

    Will you short gold futures if you get stopped out?

    ReplyDelete
  164. Using CYCLES-

    Is it Impossible for THIS to be a NEW ICL and drop to $1400's, then recover and go to new highs?

    Is it possible to have this really be a 4th dcl, and a 5th? whats the most DAILYS you can have?? I'm trying to figure out a possible drop in gold with T/A , Cycles, and so on.

    I imagine if this was NOT an ICL, but the 4th daily...we could plunge in the 4th to $1450....and Gold ICL could be put in there.

    ReplyDelete
  165. Alex, I think we normally have 4 and can have up to 5 daily cycles within the intermediate cycle. Possible.

    ReplyDelete
  166. Greenspansconscience said...

    The ten year yield inflection points are very important for PMs, especially silver, and even more so for mining stocks"

    hope you are right..

    ReplyDelete
  167. AT EASE

    THAT (IF TRUE) 5 dailys was the answer i was looking for. Thanks .

    I'm sure if it's not correct, someone would correct us.

    I Have been looking for a way to justify (CYCLE_WISE) another drop, because I DIDNT get my SIGNAL that I find at all the deeper lows from 2002 to 2008. SO I would assume we need one more dip.

    I drew 2 charts with possibilities IF THIS were 4th daily. ( I actually used a 4th 5th and 6th, but we dont need 6.

    THX again...I'll post charts

    ReplyDelete
  168. Alex, what is your signal that you refer to, may I ask?

    ReplyDelete
  169. CHART #1

    For WW

    I added his 3 favorite moving Avges to cause price to form a H&S :)

    I used 3 dailys, but it can be done with 2 more (the 4th and a 5th)

    http://www.screencast.com/t/D8jS3HDpCU

    also notice our SMALL failed tri-angle, has become a LARGE in tact tri-angle.

    MAYBE with this, I'd get my signal.

    WW-- notice the H&S forms within your moving avges
    ;]

    ReplyDelete
  170. Alex from Gary's info:
    IC lasts average 20 wks been stretching long lately as gold moves into the next 8 year cycle. DC's run 20 to 30 days also stretching with secular bull.
    20x7=140/25=5.6 averaged out.

    ReplyDelete
  171. CHART #2

    This would lead to a drop to $1450 area I believe.

    On the GLD, there is a LOT of support in the area marked .

    Again, I used 3 dailys, but if thats not likely, 2 dailys and a sharp fast drop to the real ICL?

    http://www.screencast.com/t/j4wkZTefuNe

    I have noticed that we seem to bottom regularly JULY/AUG and then FEB. 2 Dailys get us there.

    BUT, I am quite invested right now, and I still expected that this COULD BE the ICL , and that we could take off this and next week ( I was hoping!!), but I am posting this because NOW...DAY BY DAY, and I will allow the markets to TELL ME what they want to do!!

    They never listen to me anyways

    I

    ReplyDelete
  172. AT EASE

    I am still just wondering if this is the ICL.

    Even though they stretch out 20 wks, I dont think we can put in an ICL , and then drop to $1450 (like my second chart) based on things Gary has said recently about people saying we may drop again.

    Chart 1 I believe fits, chart 2 doesnt fit an ICL being in.

    ReplyDelete
  173. Alex, Would love to see this turn around now and be a fake out, but always a chance this bottoms in Jan/Feb timeframe as originally anticipated. Or it could happen right in between now and Jan/Feb timeframe. Anything possible with the way dollar is behaving.

    ReplyDelete
  174. Alex,

    The move out of the 06' low is a H&S, like you charted.

    ReplyDelete
  175. dollar is dropping back down again, while gold moves back up.

    ReplyDelete
  176. WW,
    You still long gold futures, as I didn't see you get stopped out?

    ReplyDelete
  177. Alex,

    Take a look at the 06' bottom with a 250dma (which we basically just bottomed on) and 275dma applied, if the 06 model were to playout you'll see a pull back to the 275dma from here before putting in an ICL.

    ReplyDelete
  178. AT EASE

    You mentioned the dollar and I agree.

    I Cant get a read on it yet. It all goes back to this chart I posted a week ago...where are we??

    http://www.screencast.com/t/kcKJSW4Gj

    WW...this is the 06 bottom :]

    I'll look at it with the s 250 & 275 as you say.

    By the way WW , your in U.S. right? When do you sleep?? Me too.

    ReplyDelete
  179. Alex,

    This was the 06' bottom:

    Bounced off the 250dma, hit resistance at the 175dma in 9 days, then dropped to the ICL on the 275dma....correction complete.

    Time for bed, see its you who always pops up at 1 AM and keeps me up late! :)

    ReplyDelete
  180. WW

    This is it.

    Actually 250 wasnt working, but the 230 and 275 were worked (see chart).

    Your point anyways was 275 was THE LOW.


    http://www.screencast.com/t/1ET17pevta

    So right now it's at %1554...I can handle that : ]

    ReplyDelete
  181. So if you stop is 1603, you are still long. Thanks. :)

    ReplyDelete
  182. My stop is right below the 220dma, gold just bounced off the 220dma as I expected, hopefully this bottom holds, atleast for a few more days.

    ReplyDelete

Please see the link below to comment on the new blog.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.